PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Bold Calls for 2026! “I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If…” (05/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 7 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
May 18, 2026
Published
Mon, May 18, 2026
12
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
CeeDee LambGeorge PickensAaron RodgersBreece HallDak PrescottJavonte WilliamsKyler MurrayMike Washington Jr.Parker WashingtonTrey McBride
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Rodgers
PositiveRole0:17
Aaron Rodgers has signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers, continuing a trend of similar performance across three different teams.
Insight pageBreece Hall
PositiveUsage0:46
Breece Hall has been a target machine, with a running back having more than 70 targets in two straight seasons with Aaron Rodgers.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveUsage0:20
CeeDee Lamb had more yards than George Pickens when both were on the field together in Weeks 1 and 2, but Pickens outgained him from Week 7 to 17.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:46
CeeDee Lamb is being drafted as a borderline first-round pick, but there are concerns he may underwhelm this season.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveProjection0:21
Dak Prescott averaged 22 fantasy points per game last year, and given his current draft position, he should be a solid pick.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveUsage0:20
George Pickens averaged close to 15 PPR points per game last year and had more yardage than CeeDee Lamb when both were on the field together from Week 7 to 17.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:54
George Pickens is being drafted as a second-round pick, but there are doubts he will meet expectations this season.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveValue0:22
Javonte Williams is being drafted in the fourth round, and with limited competition behind him, he should maintain a solid volume in the offense.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection0:30
Kyler Murray has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback this season, especially with a strong supporting cast and his ability to run.
Insight pageMike Washington Jr.
PositiveDepth Chart0:56
Mike Washington Jr. is in prime position to become the number two running back for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout0:33
Parker Washington finished strong last season and has the potential to be a top 20 wide receiver in Jacksonville, especially with increased volume opportunities.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeProjection0:23
Trey McBride may not finish as a top two tight end this year due to a projected drop in pass attempts and increased competition for targets.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:00Oh, boy. Oh, no. Right out of the gate, Fantasy Cops.
1:04It's Monday, and what a weekend we had. You know, I was wondering how the best way to describe this was.
1:10I was thinking about one of my favorite TV shows where there's a character who just always does things wrong.
1:16Okay, it's the show Monk. If you watch Monk, you know Randy Disher.
1:20He's the lovable moron who always screws up. And there's an episode where Monk screws up, which never happens.
1:26And Monk screws up, and it leads to something really bad.
1:29I think like a bad guy gets out of jail.
1:32And Disher is so happy. And they're like, why are you so happy?
1:36He's like, it wasn't me. It's like for the first time, someone screwed up, and it wasn't me.
1:42And that's how I feel right now, watching this commissioner.
1:45Because it's always me. It's always me being a terrible commissioner, but not this time.
1:50I'm on the sidelines watching Heath's Dynasty League absolutely crumble right now during our rookie draft.
1:55Heath, how do you feel about wearing this burden?
1:57Yeah, I take and listen, this can be debated, and you guys can tell me that I'm wrong.
2:03But this is an instance that it's a commissioner's nightmare.
2:06When you have someone in the league, who says, I don't get communications from the league website, and I don't check the league website.
2:13And it's not my fault that I missed those messages or don't know this rule.
2:18And how can you guys fix this for me?
2:21And then attacks the league, the commissioner, the website, just refusing to take responsibility for their own actions until this morning when they did.
2:28Yeah, and that person is Dan, obviously. Welcome to the show.
2:31It's Monday, May 18th. And today we are going to, I don't know if we should do the whole thing and maybe tease it.
2:39No, no, no. We got one side today and we get the other side on Wednesday.
2:44I know, but I know, but I want to get to the crux of the show, which is...
2:49This is the crux of the show. I wouldn't be surprised...
2:53Forget about whatever you have planned. I wouldn't be surprised if Dan's kicked out of the Dynasty League.
2:58All right, we're going to give you nine scenarios that wouldn't surprise us in 2026.
3:03But I do think, like Dave, you have no idea what's going on.
3:07You're not in this Dynasty League. So what are you, as an...
3:10You're basically an audience member right now. What are you...
3:13What's going through your mind? I don't care about what we wouldn't be surprised by.
3:18Let's get to what happened in this Dynasty League and spend 50 minutes on it and also get some fan reaction from it.
3:25And that's all we're talking about today. Oh, yeah, everybody.
3:28No real fantasy advice today. Just airing grievances. I fully expect Dave to like the Stone Cold music to play, the glass
3:35to shatter, and Dan to show up on the podcast today to defend himself.
3:39I wish. I tried. He's a dentist appointment. So Dan will not be on today.
3:44He'll probably be on Wednesday. I'll let Heath kind of lay it all out for you, but I'm going to give us to the eight...
3:52We have five minutes to do this. Okay? Five minutes.
3:55Go. I think five minutes for my laying it out and then five minutes of discussion would probably work.
4:00So you guys are in the league. You can tell me if this is wrong.
4:05Dave's been in one of my leagues before, so he knows exactly what's happened here.
4:10Before our rookie drafts, I send out messages saying you must clear enough roster spots to make you a rookie picks.
4:16If you have a roster problem during the draft, you cannot fix that roster problem except via trade.
4:22So you're not going to be able to make add drops to your roster during the draft.
4:27So if you want to make five picks, have five open roster spots.
4:31Everyone in the league did that except for Dan.
4:34Well, what about the other guy that he's been trading with?
4:37Well, I was under the impression because I kind of went through and checked and some people had one roster spot left.
4:44They just wanted to make one pick, I assumed.
4:47Some people had three. Some people had four. Maybe there was somebody else, but this person had enough roster spots to make
4:53three picks, whereas Dan had enough roster spots to make one pick.
4:57Okay. Dan figured this out late in round two when it was time for him to make his pick and started texting
5:04me with, I don't know how much I should go into personal text messages, so I won't give too many details.
5:10But very unhappy with the fact that he had not realized that he did not cut enough players to make his picks.
5:17I need to know how unhappy. Bro, he's insane right now.
5:20Like, Keith needs to make a dramatic reading. I won't make a dramatic reading, but I'm going to take my ball and go home.
5:28That unhappy. Okay. Okay. Um, and which immediately put me into a very angry state because this was not the fault of
5:34anything other than Dan not paying attention. Dan, right.
5:37So he doesn't get, I don't know why I talked to him about this via text.
5:42Like he doesn't get the emails from CBS. That's solvable.
5:45You got to fix that. Yeah. You got to fix that.
5:49It's been going on for a long time. Like that's fixed.
5:52Well, it's been going on for so long that in the Yolo dynasty league that you guys are all in, um, Adam's
5:59Dan did this two years ago and was very upset about it and had to make multiple draft picks trades to fix it.
6:06And not just that, but within the last two months, Dan was on a podcast complaining about that very time when that happened.
6:13So it's not like he did it two years ago and forgot.
6:17He remembered recently that he had, this was the way this worked.
6:20He had to cut enough players to make enough draft picks.
6:24He did not do that. So he solved it in round two by making a trade back.
6:29Somebody took one of his players perfectly legitimate. You got to round three, which again, we're at pick 32, 33 in a 2026 rookie class.
6:36No one should care this much about this pick.
6:39Like the line you said to me yesterday was the best line.
6:43What was it? What? Oh, yes. If I had tried to trade Dan pick 33 for anything, he would have told me
6:50how terrible this draft class is and how much this pick doesn't matter.
6:54And 100% or more likely he would have said nothing because he wouldn't have seen that trade off because he doesn't check in on a league website.
7:02But he finds a resolution with one of the league members trying to help him out.
7:07He trades three players to this guy for one player, which creates a roster spot for him.
7:12Great. With the understanding that after he makes the pick, they will trade the players back so the other guy can make his pick.
7:19Like, yeah, you can't do I'll trade you back later.
7:23Yeah. That is not legal. And it got brought up in the message board and not by me.
7:28Other people. Right. The message board went crazy. I mean, it got really heated.
7:32I honestly think this is the most heated it may have ever gotten in any of the leagues I'm in.
7:39Adam, look at look at Johnny's post. What you need to send a certified letter to the next one.
7:44Oh, Dan is a real life Seinfeld character at this point.
7:48And that's what I said to him. I said to Dan, I was like, you know who this would happen to?
7:54George Costanza. He doesn't want to accept the fact that he is George Costanza, but he is.
7:59So that's where we stand. I finally paused the draft.
8:02The trade has been reversed. Dan's pick has been reversed.
8:06And it seems that the league sentiment is Dan's complained enough.
8:09Let's let him make his picks. But there's not really a way to do that without him making a trade that is allowable and legal.
8:17All right. Well, he's so mad. He is so mad.
8:20I like he's like, I'm going to auction off my my team.
8:23And by the way, I went to the finals last year.
8:27This is a really good scene that a lot of people would watch to to his credit, because I've said some things that weren't very nice.
8:35He did accept responsibility this morning. He acknowledged that he needs to do a better job.
8:40I think he even said sorry and then sent three more ranting replies to other people in the chat that he was mad at.
8:47But at one point, there was a little bit of contrition and acknowledgement.
8:51This was entirely 100 percent his fault. So, Heath, you'll appreciate it.
8:55I sent him and Adam a text message. A little trolling.
8:58I'm like, Dan, are you OK? You seem a little upset today.
9:02Dan wanted me to convey his side of the story since he can't be on.
9:06OK. And I'm going through our text and I don't really know what I'm supposed to read here, because there's a lot.
9:13But he just he and this is kind of like I agree with him.
9:17I don't like your rule personally, Heath. Like, I don't think you should have to drop players in May.
9:23But that's your right as the commissioner. I personally would have expanded the rosters to let you keep everyone and then make your drops later.
9:31And Dan, I think Dan's point, I feel bad because I don't want to put words in his mouth.
9:37But I think Dan's point is like it's just doing that for him right now.
9:41It's a stupid rule. And we found a way to circumvent it.
9:45And I don't. And why would you stand in our way of of our of our method of circumventing the rule?
9:51And he's like, yeah, everyone understands why making a trade with the agreement that you will reverse it in the future is not OK.
9:59That's not debatable, right? Correct. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. So that's the.
10:02Yeah. I think if you if you agree to change it back halfway through the season, you shouldn't have that big of a problem with it.
10:10That big. Maybe you still have a problem with it, but you can't.
10:14You can't. Yeah. So that way the play teams have players for part of the year.
10:19What if I did it during the season? Just because I didn't know.
10:23No, like I think if you make a trade in it and it in you.
10:28You I don't know if reverse is the way to say it, but you make a trade back weeks later.
10:34Not not in the same, you know, short period of time like what Dan's doing.
10:38What Dan's doing is not right. Forget it. That's it.
10:42Yeah. Yeah. You're OK with players with managers trading the same players back and forth to help each other at some point during the season.
10:49If it's for multiple weeks, I don't know if I have a big problem with it.
10:54That's what I said. I think you could make.
10:57I think there should be a rule that you managers cannot trade players back to the same team.
11:02Right. Like if I'm in three, four weeks, whatever you want to say.
11:06Or maybe that's fine. Like there was a week where I didn't have a tight end and I made a trade and
11:13I thought, OK, well, I can just trade back with this manager later.
11:17And when I tried to trade back with the manager later, the manager said, no, I'm keeping the guy you gave me
11:24for a tight end to use this week. And I was SOL.
11:28But I didn't try it, but I didn't try to say, OK, just give me my guy back a week later.
11:34Let me get back to let me get back to why this is Heath's fault, though.
11:39Fine. Of course, it is a bad rule. I'm making people make drops in May.
11:44You just let them just expand. But also, here's what I think you should have done.
11:49You know, Dan, right? Like, obviously, Dan was going to mess this up.
11:52Right. So you should have reached out to him.
11:55You should have gone through the transactions and looked at the teams that didn't follow your advice, that didn't like not follow your advice, follow your rules.
12:04Because you posted this on like a Tuesday and the draft was Friday.
12:08So you should have reached out to the individual manager and said, hey, you haven't made any drops yet.
12:13You should do that before the draft. That's what a nice commissioner would do.
12:18That's what I would have done. Heath, before you answer, he told me this yesterday and I said, Heath has teenagers up as children.
12:25You and I are still in the let's tell our kids 15 times and then if they don't do it, we'll still
12:32tell them the 16th time to do it. That's the difference, I think, between going through mature children and kids that need to have their hands held.
12:40Well, Heath has passed the hand-holding stage. Here's what the rule is.
12:44But it's Dan. Follow the rule or don't. But it's Dan.
12:47And this is going to be your penalty. If Dan's in your league.
12:51And approximately how many years has Dan been in a league that Heath has been the commissioner of?
12:57This isn't his first year. No. This isn't his first year violating, like, missing this rule.
13:02But you should, as commissioner, you should have been prepared for that.
13:05He was. And I don't have any, like, he seems to think that the greatest travesty here is being penalized a third-round rookie pick.
13:13And I just don't see any problem with that.
13:15I don't either. You didn't pay attention. And this is a stupid rule.
13:19It's not a valid argument for, I got caught breaking this rule.
13:23Well, Dan, I think you're out of luck here.
13:26I tried. I really tried. I think it's on you, man.
13:29The last thing I'll say is, for Dynasty Managers, I think this part actually, like, what you're upset with me about, it
13:36kind of makes, I know where you're coming from.
13:39Except that there's really, like, two things each year where the commissioner actually has the ability to make somebody do something.
13:45It's right before the draft, and it's when they're scoring fantasy points.
13:49And the rest of the time, the rest of the year, you get caught in situations where you have to make empty
13:56threats to your friends that if they don't drop a player, you're going to have to go drop someone for them.
14:02And then you find yourself actually having to do that and looking like a bad commissioner because you're removing players from teams.
14:09And if you do it before the draft, they actually have to do it.
14:13Okay, fair enough. And by the way, like, and this is a pointer for all the other commissioners out there.
14:19Let's say Heath let Dan retroactively drop players or let that trade go through.
14:24Like, that just opens the door to more BS from other managers down the line.
14:28And then they'll point back to what Heath did, letting Dan get away with it and say, well, you let Dan do it.
14:35Why can't I do it? Yeah. So I applaud you, Heath.
14:39And I don't have a problem with dropping players for the draft.
14:42It's what makes the leagues even more competitive. Yeah.
14:45So I think the highlight will be when Dan comes on and tries to defend this on Wednesday.
14:51So everybody be ready for that. We're going to take a break.
14:54We'll give you our thoughts on Aaron Rodgers. Court is adjourned until Wednesday?
14:58Court is adjourned until Wednesday. Fantasy cops have settled it for now.
15:02Anyway, we'll be right back. We'll tell you about our thoughts on Aaron Rodgers, an update on Bucky Irving.
15:08And I wouldn't be surprised if... Dot, dot, dot.
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16:02We're taking a time out here. We're taking a break from the shoulds.
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16:10And enjoying some Snapple real facts. Here we go.
16:13Real Fact1983. The first player drafted to play pro football never played in the league.
16:18Of course, I drafted him in my fantasy league.
16:21Real Fact1119. The Grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs.
16:24All right, a couple more. Real Fact1274. Kickball is referred to as soccer baseball in some parts of Canada.
16:30That's weird. I used to be pretty good at soccer baseball.
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17:17Dan is a menace to society. That's from the chat.
17:20You know what would be the best on Wednesdays if we could just clip the, I don't know, the top ten comments
17:27in the chat from today in response to Dan and just read those to him before he gives his side, just to
17:34get him good and amped up before he gives his side.
17:37He's really mad. He's really mad. All right, news and notes.
17:41Aaron Rodgers should be mad at himself. He's signing a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
17:46You know, it's pretty interesting. So you look at his stats page, he's had basically like the same season three years in
17:52a row with three different teams, obviously not counting the torn Achilles season.
17:56His last year in Green Bay, his one year with the Jets, his one year with Pittsburgh.
18:02Hasn't really been that good. It hasn't been terrible, though.
18:05And a running back has had more than 70 targets in two straight seasons with Aaron Rodgers.
18:10That's cool. Brees Hall. Do you know how many seasons, and I didn't include the Faviers, but Mike McCarthy from Aaron Rodgers through Dak Prescott.
18:18How many 20-point fantasy seasons has he coached a quarterback to?
18:21Oh, a ton. Oh, I'm going to say. Out of how many total seasons?
18:25So it was 2008 through 2024 with a break.
18:28One year break. So 16. It was 13 seasons with Rodgers and five seasons with Dak.
18:33Okay, so 18. 12. Yeah, I would say it's somewhere in the neighborhood of 12.
18:38I'll go 13. 17 of 18 seasons, he's had a couple over 20 fantasy points.
18:42It was the last year with Dak Prescott where he did not average points per game.
18:47So there was the year where Dak played four games, you know, average over 20 fantasy points per game.
18:53So take out the backup quarterbacks there, but the Rodgers-Dak combo.
18:5617 of 18 seasons, the quarterback's been over 20 fantasy points.
19:00We're thinking it's going to be 17 of 19.
19:02Yeah, all good things must come to an end.
19:05All right, Bucky Irving will be limited in OTAs, but should be ready for training camp.
19:10He's got the off-season shoulder surgery that he's recovering from.
19:13Ryan McFadden of ESPN thinks that Raiders running back Mike Washington Jr.
19:17is in prime position to become the number two running back.
19:20For Las Vegas. And Patriots wide receiver Kayshawn Booty has not been at the team's facility during the voluntary OTAs, according to ESPN.
19:27And Booty might be a guy who gets traded.
19:30We do have an A.J. Brown. I wouldn't be surprised if coming.
19:34That might be the last one we do. It's second to last one.
19:38All right, so let's get into it. And you just heard that stat about Dak Prescott under Mike McCarthy.
19:44Well, we're going to talk about the Dallas Cowboys.
19:46As Dave says, I wouldn't be surprised if every Dallas player underwhelmed.
19:50Ooh, gasp. Think about where we're drafting. CD Lamb, borderline first-round pick.
19:54George Pickens, a second-round pick. Dak obviously can meet expectations without being as good as he was last year.
20:00Javante, pretty much the same thing. But I've talked about it before.
20:03I think this Cowboys defense is going to be a lot better this year than it was last year.
20:09And if that defense is better, that means that the offense might not have to throw as much.
20:15They were 61% pass before they acquired Quinton Williams.
20:17That dropped to 56% after that. I could see this team playing at a little bit of a slower pace, being a little bit more balanced.
20:25And as far as Lamb and Pickens go specifically, we saw it last year when they were on the field together.
20:32They were both averaging right around 14 PPR points per game.
20:35Pickens a little bit higher. Pickens was pretty close to 15 PPR points per game.
20:40When we played who had more, you guys learned.
20:43Pickens had more yardage than Lamb last year when they were both on the field together.
20:47I feel like that maybe we're overrating them just a little bit.
20:51And so I wouldn't be surprised if they underwhelm when the season's over this year.
20:56And assuming everybody stays healthy, Pickens is good. Lamb is good.
20:59But they don't quite give you what you wanted when you drafted them.
21:03Just sorry, real quick, I'll let the guys jump in.
21:06And just to clarify, Pickens had more yards than Lamb when they were on the field together.
21:11That was specifically Week 7 through 17, which I think are the ones that really matter.
21:16But if you did throw in Weeks 1 and 2...
21:19Remember, Pickens really wasn't that involved the first couple of weeks, I think.
21:23If you throw in Weeks 1 and 2, I do think Lamb had more yards than Pickens.
21:29But yes, Pickens did outgain him in Weeks 7 through 17.
21:32This is an interesting take. Heath, your thoughts on this?
21:35Because the Cowboys, the last two years, have been 31st and 32nd in defense.
21:39There are some years where they had a good defense and Dak Prescott still had a massive season.
21:45But the last two years have been... They've been one of the worst defenses, if not the worst in football.
21:51Your thoughts? Barring injury, I have a really hard time seeing Dak underperform.
21:55I could see Lamb and Pickens cannibalizing each other and both finishing as high-end wide receiver twos, maybe.
22:01But I think the one that's harder for me, especially because of where he's being drafted, the one that's harder for me is Dak.
22:08Dak, I get it. Does it stick in your craw a little bit that Dak averaged 22 fantasy points per game and 6-point last year?
22:1622? That's what I've got. I think that'd be pretty good where he's being drafted.
22:20Actually, 23.3 if you take out Week 18. That's even better, obviously.
22:24So, yeah, for where he's getting drafted, I don't think anybody would have a problem with that.
22:29What does this mean for Javante, Jamie, if the Cowboys' defense gets better?
22:33I think he's kind of in the same boat as Dak.
22:37You look at where they're getting drafted, like Javante's going to be a fourth-round pick, most likely based on his ADP.
22:43And so when you're talking about him in the teens at running back, in some cases he may slip into the early
22:5020s, depending on how people view some of the second-year guys, Scadaboo, Judkins.
22:54Maybe just Darian Price gets ahead of him. I don't think that'll happen, but you never know.
22:59But in any case, I think just where Javante's going, given his expected role, like the backups there right now are not exactly the most exciting players.
23:07It's not like we're talking about a Blake Corum threat, a Kyle Monongai threat.
23:12Malik Davis is most likely going to be the number two running back there, and I don't think he's taking Javante off the field very much.
23:20So if Dave's theory is right and they throw the ball less, well, they're going to run the ball more.
23:26We saw what that was like early in the season from a touchdown perspective for Javante.
23:31Now, the receptions are not great for him to begin with, at least especially what he does with the ball in his hands after he catches it.
23:39But I think when you're looking at Javante, you're looking at volume, and that should stay the same.
23:44If the offense stays the same, it should get better if the offense, you know, the passing game potentially takes a step back.
23:51All right. I wouldn't be surprised if every Dallas player underwhelmed.
23:55That's number one. That's from Dave. Number two, I wouldn't be surprised.
23:59This one is from Heath. If Trey McBride is not a top two tight end.
24:03And I think nobody's surprised, but I wouldn't be surprised by that.
24:07There's lots of sides to this one. The first one is the fact that the Cardinals led the NFL with 649 pass attempts last year.
24:14I am not confident they're going to come really anywhere close.
24:18I think you could see a drop in 50 pass attempts.
24:21In fact, it's probably what I project. The second one is that we didn't really, with Jacobi Brissett, see both Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison together very often.
24:30I think when we do, that could cut into Trey McBride's 26% target share from last year, which was absolutely insane.
24:36And then the third one is I think there's a lot of tight ends.
24:41Colston Loveland, Sam Laporta for me, Tucker Craft for some people who could get into that 14-ish point per game range this
24:47year, which is about where I expect McBride to regress to.
24:51Okay. He was at 15.2 points per game in 2024.
24:54Four. But yeah, it's all about, I don't know, Heath.
24:57I feel like it's all about Michael Wilson. You know, I know you just brought him up.
25:02I think that's, to me, the biggest factor that stands out.
25:05Because if he has a role, it's going to really be different for this offense.
25:10Yeah, I think the biggest factor, to me, is the total number of pass attempts.
25:15But that is right up there with that. And then I didn't say his name because we talk about him all the time, but Drew Petsing.
25:23How much does his departure change their target share?
25:25Because he, I found this the other day, you know, he and Kevin Stefanski worked together for nine straight years before he left to go to Arizona.
25:34In the last three years when he was in Arizona, he and Stefanski both had a 27% tight end target share.
25:40Wow. Which, like, nobody else does. Well, Andy Reid does.
25:43But, yeah, I just think you could see if it's 23% and it's 600 pass attempts, that's a pretty big drop-off.
25:50Okay, so that's Trey McBride. Would anybody be shocked?
25:52By the way, just two years ago, he was tight end three per game, but just barely.
25:58He was behind Bowers and Kittle. But would anybody be shocked if, you know, if he weren't, like, a top?
26:04You know, I'll say he's not a top three tight end because sometimes there's a big difference between two and three.
26:10The way they're being drafted right now is probably a big difference in perception between two and three.
26:16Jamie, how surprised would you be if McBride were not a top three tight end?
26:20Fairly surprised. I mean, you know, even the picture that Heath is painting and didn't even mention that their run game should
26:27significantly improve with the additions of Jeremiah Love and Tyler Algier and even a healthy James Conner.
26:32I mean, you know, they were just a disaster last season, so factor that in as well.
26:38I think he's just too talented. Like, you know, he's got enough, I think, of an opportunity to lead this team in targets.
26:45And we're talking about can Michael Wilson do what he did in that stretch last year?
26:50Can Marvin Harrison Jr. ever get to the level that he was drafted at?
26:54And those are still big ifs. You know, I mean, Wilson, even last season when everybody was healthy, he was not getting those opportunities.
27:01And Harrison, you know, until Jacoby Brissett really took over and we saw some glimpses of it, you know, we still have
27:08to see it for a full season. So I still think McBride is too talented, too good, too much of a factor
27:15in this offense to completely disappear or at least take a significant step back that he's not going to be in that range.
27:22But look, if you're drafting him first and he finishes fifth, it's a disappointment.
27:26If you draft him first and he finishes third and we're talking about, you know, a point or two behind the top
27:33two guys because the other two guys or three guys, you know, as Heath alluded to with, you know, for him it's
27:40Laporte or for a lot of people it's Tyler Warren.
27:43You know, if those other guys that are getting drafted after the top two guys are all competing for the top spot,
27:49then I think you win with still taking McBride.
27:52But if he takes a, you know, two or three point per game step back and there are a handful of guys
27:59that are better than him, then it was a bust.
28:02All right, David, quick thought on this and we'll move on.
28:05I think McBride is going to remain their top target getter.
28:09I think he's too good. I think the new coaching staff is going to be worlds better at scheming up their players than the previous coaching staff.
28:17Here's something to remember with Michael Wilson. When he was on the field with Brissette and Marvin last year, it was five point seven targets per game.
28:25He was kind of the odd man out. McBride was not Marvin Harrison Jr.
28:30Wasn't catching a ton of targets. It was McBride.
28:32There is a star. There is a strong track record of Jacoby Brissette favoring his tight ends.
28:38It goes back for years. And I don't think that that's going away.
28:42I think McBride is such a weapon in the red zone, out of the red zone, that he's still going to get a lot of volume.
28:50I am comfortable in full PPR with him as the top tight end.
28:54I would be surprised if he didn't finish the year as a top three tight end in full PPR.
28:59I think just one thing to keep in mind here is what do they do if Brissette is not their quarterback, meaning
29:06injury or they want to go a different direction?
29:09Is it Gardner to keep another veteran in there and keep everybody happy?
29:13Or is it Carson Beck? And they start to see if maybe he's their quarterback of the future.
29:19That terrified me for the entire offense. Both scenarios in different ways.
29:22But obviously, it's a little bit more tough to trust these guys as high-end fantasy options, mostly McBride, if it's Carson Beck.
29:29And I also say, the things Dave said, I agree with.
29:32They're going to throw the ball a lot to Trey McBride.
29:36But he had 169 targets last year. It's kind of like the Lions discussion last year.
29:41They're going to still be a top five offense.
29:43They're probably not going to be near as good as they were.
29:47So I think he could easily lose two or three targets a game and still be one of the top two or three tight ends in targets.
29:55The question will be, does he get any better at turning targets into yards?
30:00Because he's never been close to a lead at that.
30:03That's true. 9.9 targets per game last year. 9.2 the year before that.
30:07And then he had a stretch his last 10 games of 2023, 8.5 targets per game.
30:12So it's been steady. Yeah. I would agree with you too, Heath.
30:15I don't think he gets anywhere close to 10 targets or even nine targets per game this year.
30:21Unless things go really wrong in Arizona. And that would include Jeremiah Love not being a factor at all.
30:27And I don't think any of us would be.
30:29I think all of us would be surprised if Love was not a factor at all.
30:34Now, if you missed our Wednesday, sorry, our Friday show, we talked about the schedule.
30:39This show was on CBS Sports Network. They do have Cardinals have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL based on last year's opponent win percentage.
30:47So they could be really bad again. They could be throwing the ball all the time.
30:52Let's move on to a former Cardinal. Here's now a Minnesota Viking.
30:56Joining Kyler Murray, Jamie says, I wouldn't be surprised if Kyler Murray is a top 10 quarterback.
31:01So you have the receiving core that just got better last week with the addition of Jawan Jennings.
31:07Obviously, Justin Jefferson is still one of the best in the league.
31:10Jordan Addison is a very good complementary guy. Maybe on paper, the best trio wide receivers in the NFL.
31:16TJ Hawkins is still going to be a factor.
31:19We know that when Kyler's right, he runs. He averages just about 36 yards per game in his career.
31:25Running the ball last year, for example, number one in that category was Justin Fields at 42 yards per game.
31:31So he's probably going to be among the league leaders in rushing yards per game or rushing yards, excuse me, at the quarterback spot.
31:38And then you have Kevin O'Connell, who, you know, arguably the best coach that he's ever worked with, at least, you know, based on what we've seen.
31:47So it's a great opportunity. Great system. He's in a prove it season.
31:51I hope he wins the job over J.J. McCarthy.
31:53There's still that wrinkle. But, look, he's going to be a guy that I think anybody that is inclined to take two quarterbacks should be targeting.
32:01If you miss on the position because people already took two quarterbacks ahead of you, like this is the perfect fallback option
32:08to pair with another, you know, maybe safer veteran.
32:11Like you can go Kyler Murray and Jared Goff, for example.
32:14I think that's a great pairing to, you know, have a little bit of a floor with a higher ceiling type of player.
32:21But Kyler, when he's been at his best, has been in the conversation to be a top five quarterback.
32:27I don't know if I'll get back to that level.
32:30So I was kind of, you know, am I taking sort of the easy way out by saying top ten?
32:36And so you can definitely say that that's the case.
32:39But I can certainly see him being in the conversation if things go really, really well to be a top five quarterback.
32:46He's got just that type of upside if he's running the ball and taking advantage of these weapons.
32:52I don't expect that to happen. So I'll, again, take the cop out and say top ten.
32:57But I think he's one of the best late round values they can find.
33:01His ADP right now is just absolutely fantastic. Yeah, it's a little weak, I think.
33:06I think you should have had to go a little higher than ten.
33:10Not necessarily to five. But maybe, give me top eight.
33:13Yeah, I mean, eight's just like a weird number to say.
33:16Eight is a weird number. What would surprise you more?
33:19Kyler Murray is a top five quarterback. Kyler Murray is not a top 20 quarterback.
33:24Not a top 20 quarterback. Top five quarterback. I guess I would say top five quarterback.
33:29If you told me that he's playing the full season, I might say not a top 20 quarterback.
33:34But there's the risk that things don't go well for Minnesota and J.J.
33:38McCarthy starts a bunch of games. All right, another great late round quarterback option, Kyler Murray.
33:43Let's talk about Parker Washington. I was going to take a break, but you know what?
33:48Let's do Parker Washington first. All right, Parker Washington.
33:5124 years old. He was a sixth round pick.
33:54And boy, did he crush it. His last four games, 19 or more PPR fantasy points in all four, including the postseason.
34:00Dave says he wouldn't be surprised if Parker Washington turned into a top 20 wide receiver.
34:05You just talked about that huge finish down the stretch.
34:08I think he builds off of that in Jacksonville.
34:11He surprised me with the A dot. And then when I watched the film to back it up, he can boogie down the field.
34:19He's got speed. And they also give him a lot of layups on top of it.
34:23So, Adam, he's got what we look for from wide receivers.
34:27Layups and long balls. He's not just a short area target.
34:30He had a number of deep targets. He was running routes that I would expect Brian Thomas Jr.
34:36to run. Look at the post for a touchdown against Tennessee.
34:39A lot of other in-breaking routes. And I still think there's room for improvement there because there were a number of targets
34:46where he and Trevor just were not on the same page.
34:49There was a little bit of off-target throwing from Trevor.
34:52Or maybe Parker wasn't in the right place at the right time.
34:56You might remember the interception against Buffalo in the playoffs where that happened.
35:00Furthermore, the run game is a question mark. We don't know how good they'll be.
35:05Etienne isn't there anymore. Brian Thomas Jr. is a question mark.
35:08We'll see what the reports are in training camp in August.
35:11And the defense might not be quite as good as it was last year.
35:16So, I think that just could lead to more volume opportunity for Parker Washington.
35:20I've changed my rankings in PPR. He's my favorite Jaguars wide receiver to target.
35:24Wow. Okay. Heath, your reaction to that? Dave would not be surprised if Parker Washington were a top 20 wide receiver.
35:31I would not be surprised if a Jacksonville wide receiver is a top 20 wide receiver.
35:36Do I have to pick one? No, I just, I think I would still be surprised if Parker Washington is the best
35:42wide receiver on this team over a full season.
35:45Maybe that's leaning too much into who he was for most of his life before the last four games of last year.
35:52But it was just four games. And I think Jacoby Myers is going to get seven or eight targets a game.
35:58And I still have a lot of hope for Brian Thomas Jr.
36:02And Brendan Strange is still going to siphon off five or six targets a game.
36:07And I think Travis Hunter is still going to play maybe 30% of the offensive snaps.
36:12And so, I just don't, I think Parker Washington is probably a part-time player who's a good boom bust wide receiver three.
36:18When would you take him? Is there a draft round that you've got in mind?
36:23Not before round seven. I'm on the same page as you, man.
36:27Round seven. Is there a team that you can think of recently that we were like, man, there's just too many mouths to feed.
36:34You know, does that play it out that way?
36:37Or does the cream usually rise? Who's the cream?
36:40Yeah, I don't know. But because I could sit here and make a case and go, man, I really like the Jaguars offense.
36:47But I'm not going to draft any of them.
36:49And it's really because of Travis Hunter. If Travis Hunter is really going to be a factor here, then I think it's going to be bad news.
36:58Were there too many mouths to feed for the Chargers last year?
37:01Yeah. I think you can make it. You know what Parker Washington reminds me of a little bit is Josh Downs because
37:08he came off a strong finish in 2024, if I'm not mistaken.
37:12And 2025, we had a lot of expectations for him, moderately.
37:15So, I should say a lot of moderate expectations for him.
37:19But we get these type of players, like Jalen Coker, same thing.
37:22Like, we get these guys that show small sample sizes of, like, sometimes just great production.
37:27And it just doesn't materialize over the course of the season.
37:31I don't think this is a bad take by any stretch because he was so good last year.
37:36The thing that I fear is kind of the Travis Hunter factor because – and I think we're going to get this with San Francisco too.
37:44Like, they're getting so much bleep for the trade to get Travis Hunter.
37:48And you're just hearing the same narrative this offseason again.
37:51We're not giving up on the plan. We're not giving up on him playing offense.
37:56He's not going to be a full-time corner. You know, Liam Cohen has said it.
38:00James Gladstone has said it. They've said it in very public places.
38:04So, I just hope that it's not such a crowded receiving room with the tight end and running backs involved that we
38:11don't get the standout production from one of these guys.
38:14Because it would be great if we get at least one Jaguars wide receiver.
38:18Like he said, which one is it? I don't know.
38:21I don't know either. I still think the most upside favor is Brian Thomas because what we saw from him in 2024
38:28I don't think anybody else on this team can do.
38:31That being said, you'll get probably a great stretch of Parker Washington.
38:35Probably a great stretch of Jacoby Myers. Probably a great stretch.
38:38I mean, you know, you brought this up time and time again, Adam.
38:42The game before Travis Hunter was placed on IR when he got hurt in practice.
38:47Yeah. Double-digit targets. They were feeding him the ball.
38:49And he looked great. And so, how much of that becomes a factor again?
38:54So, I could see Parker Washington. I think what the guy said in terms of his draft value.
38:59Like, round eight is the spot you want to take a chance on him because that's when we get to that, you
39:06know, range of wide receivers where there's a lot of question marks.
39:10It would not shock me at all. And I don't think I'm going to do this.
39:15But it wouldn't shock me at all. Well, if Parker Washington is one of the guys that gets dropped in the first
39:21month of the season because he's just not getting those targets and opportunities that we were hoping for.
39:27And then everybody's racing to the waiver wire again because there's an injury or something happens.
39:32Like, he could be one of those guys that just goes up and down in terms of production and even roster percentage.
39:39And it's just – and it could be for multiple guys on this team.
39:43You know, we saw it last year. Thomas was benchable for the majority of the season.
39:48You know, Jacoby Myers didn't exactly take off and was a consistent fantasy starter when he got to Jacksonville.
39:54So, it's just – it's a great thing to have if you're, you know, Liam Cohen and the Jaguars' offensive staff.
40:00It's a potential nightmare for fantasy managers because it could just be an absolute mess.
40:05Fair enough. Well said. Last, I'll give you an encouraging Parker Washington stat.
40:09That 10 games including – they played one playoff game.
40:12Including that game, Parker Washington played 70% or more of the snaps 10 times.
40:16He had seven or more targets in eight of those 10 games.
40:20He was on pace for 134 targets, you know, in those 10 games.
40:24So, that's per 17 games. So, I think he didn't have a lot of games where he played a lot and didn't get targets.
40:31Right? Like, usually when Parker Washington wasn't good last year, it's because he wasn't playing.
40:36That's encouraging. But what's discouraging is the two years before that.
40:39Right. And he did have a few where he played a lot and got targets and didn't score fantasy points.
40:45From week seven on, he averaged 14.4 PPR points per game on seven targets per game.
40:50The PPR points was on target – it was on the same pace as CeeDee Lamb on one fewer target per game.
40:57Oh, nice. All right. We're going to take a break and come back with a Quinshon Judkins.
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41:59We'll be right back with Quinshon Judkins after this.
42:01Heath, dare I say, Quinshon Judkins is your 2026 version of DeAndre Swift, which you crushed.
42:06That was a great call by you last year.
42:09Just seems like this is your guy. You like to talk about him a lot, which is cool.
42:15Hopefully you have more luck than I did with Pacheco.
42:18But you would not be surprised if Quinshon Judkins leads the NFL in rush attempts.
42:22Yes. And everything I say about Quinshon Judkins, I always have to put the asterisk, assuming he's healthy.
42:28And I'm optimistic because he was at least there for some of the summer workout stuff.
42:33And the reports have mostly been positive that he's going to be healthy.
42:37And I just I think he could lead the NFL in rush attempts if they don't trade Miles Garrett.
42:43And this defense against arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL keeps them in games.
42:47I think Todd Munkin with his current quarterback situation would be very happy to hand the ball off to Quinshon Judkins 20 times a game.
42:55And he can be one of those guys that challenges to be an RB one without a large role in the passing game.
43:02We saw Nick Chubb do it in Cleveland in the past.
43:05We've seen Derek Henry do it over and over and over.
43:09I'm not saying he's going to reach their heights, but he could reach their volume.
43:13And Quinshon Judkins played three games, which he played less than 40 percent of the snaps.
43:18And I take those games away and two of them.
43:21One was because it was his first game coming off like, you know, the weird situation to start the year.
43:27Two of them were injury related. And if you take those games away, he was on pace for 314 carries, 18.5 per game as a rookie.
43:35Really impressive. So honestly, I'm just going to let this one sit.
43:39I don't think we need to really get into it too much.
43:43It makes a lot of sense. And it's something you should really keep in mind with Quinshon Judkins.
43:48Great call. Jamie, you would not be surprised. You mentioned Josh Downs a little bit earlier.
43:53You would not be surprised if Josh Downs is better than Alec Pierce.
43:57So Josh Downs, 2024, his best season so far of his career.
44:01Obviously a very short career, but 13.1 PPR points per game.
44:04Last year, Alec Pierce, his best season so far, 12.2 PPR points per game.
44:09Alec Pierce has never had over 100 targets in his career.
44:12Josh Downs in 14 games in 2024 had 107.
44:15So we know how Daniel Jones tends to operate.
44:17As you said, Adam, number one in first read throws, right?
44:21No, I don't know that. I feel like he – I felt like I saw that and he did that a lot.
44:28I don't know that for a fact that he was number one.
44:31No, he definitely does that a lot. I just was trying to remember what stat you gave.
44:36Yeah, yeah. But in any event, I think Downs and Tyler Warren are certainly going to benefit with the loss of Michael Pittman.
44:44Alec Pierce will as well. And look, they don't pay him to not make him a featured part of this offense and
44:50maybe the most featured part of the passing game.
44:53But again, you have a quarterback coming off a pretty significant injury that may want to get rid of the ball quick.
45:00And the guys that are going to be most in front of him, open, and available will probably be Tyler Warren and Josh Downs.
45:07So Downs is one of my favorite picks at this point.
45:11You know, you talk about those guys after round seven.
45:14He may be creeping into the first seven rounds.
45:16You know, he's just got that much upside potential.
45:19So not that I'm not excited about Pierce. I think he could take a huge step forward.
45:24But 84 targets for him last year. Can he get to that 120 target range?
45:29I think if, again, you know, you do the numbers, 107 targets in 14 games.
45:34Josh Downs is on pace for over 120 that season.
45:37I think he's going to be in the conversation to be the most targeted player for the Colts.
45:42He's just an easy pick once you get to that mid-round of wide receivers.
45:46And again, one shock maybe is better than Pierce from a PPR standpoint.
45:50He's not going to score as many touchdowns, but I think he's going to catch more passes.
45:56Correct me if I'm wrong. Was he not the leader on the Colts and targets per game in 2024?
46:02I would guess so. I'm double checking right now.
46:04I'll let you know in four. Who can remember 2024?
46:07It was a long time ago. It was like four years ago or something.
46:12I don't even know. While you check that, I can give...
46:15Well, why don't you, Heath, why don't you give your reaction to this?
46:19Jamie, not surprised if Josh Downs is better than Alec Pierce.
46:22I... Yeah, I don't think I would really be that surprised by it as well.
46:27I... Alec Pierce, I think, is one of the most difficult guys.
46:31We may have even talked about him being so difficult to rank just because they're going to try to turn him into...
46:37Presumably, try to turn him into something he's not been in the NFL yet.
46:42And it's true that Josh Downs' ADOT and route depth has been much more similar to Michael Pittman's than Alec Pierce's has.
46:49And so I think it's fair to think that maybe more of those Pittman targets go two downs.
46:54I agree with Jamie. He's going to catch more passes.
46:57I think I have it projected that way. But the past couple of years, an Alec Pierce target's been worth a lot more than a Josh Downs target.
47:06So he's probably going to have to out-target him by a significant amount to be better in fantasy or just score more touchdowns.
47:13I think there's a real chance they could both be number three receivers in fantasy and just be guys that you'll start
47:20and hope for a boom week and then maybe they don't crush you that bad.
47:24Maybe their average is right around 10 PPR points per game with it being a lot more up and down for Pierce than it is for Downs.
47:32Downs could be more consistent of the two. Yes, in 2024, 7.6 targets per game easily led the Colts in that category.
47:39He also had the most catches, the most catches per game, second in catch rate, second in receiving touchdowns, first in target per route run.
47:47This feels like a good call. I think in full PPR, Downs should get an expanded role with Pittman out of there.
47:54I worry about what Heath talked about, which is what's the value of a Josh Downs target if his ADOT is going
48:00to be 6.9, which is what it was in 2024.
48:03That was 10th best on the Colts. I'm going through and updating my projections this week and just kind of taking a third or fourth look at things.
48:12And one of the things that I just kind of recognized this morning, this Shane Steigen offense has averaged 335 wide receiver
48:19targets per year the last three years. Their number three wide receiver might be Nick Westbrook or number four might be Deion Burks.
48:26Like we might just be too low on both Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.
48:30The question I would have about Josh Downs is what's his slot rate going to be?
48:35Because let me give you a, Josh Downs has played three years.
48:39I'll give you a player who has also played three years, but I'm going to look at the first two years of
48:46that player's career and the first three years of Josh Downs' career.
48:49Player A averaged 10.8 yards per catch and 7.6 yards per target.
48:53Josh Downs averaged 10.8 yards per catch, exactly the same, and 7.3 yards per target.
48:58They both were in the slot about 70% or more of the time.
49:02And their yards per route run, if you average them in the first two years for player A and the first three
49:08years for Josh Downs, were about the same. I think probably Josh Downs is probably a little bit better than that if I had to guess.
49:16Player A was Jackson Smith and Jigbo. Player B is Josh Downs.
49:20JSN's career, whether he could have done that as a slot receiver last year, I doubt, but I don't know what he
49:27would have done, but he used to be a 70% slot guy.
49:30Last year, it was like 20%, which is really low.
49:33I don't know what Josh... Josh Downs is three inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter based on what I saw online.
49:40So I don't know if that's accurate, but he's not JSN.
49:43But my point is, I think they probably need to use him more on the outside if he's really going to reach his full potential.
49:51If he's a 75% slot guy, he's probably not playing enough, is my guess, to really hit in fantasy.
49:57So that's something I'm not sure. Did he just give you the list of what the receiving core looks like for the goal?
50:04No, I think he's so small. You were very close.
50:07I think it's what is his participation in two wide receiver sets.
50:11Sure. Yeah. I hope he plays in the slot every time there's three wide receivers on the field.
50:16Yeah, I agree. But he needs to... If we have Nick Westbrook out there on a passing down and Josh Downs is
50:23not, then they should just burn the whole thing down.
50:26How badly do you... Well, it's not even fair to me to go look and see if Josh Downs played in two
50:33wide receiver sets last year because they had Michael Pittman on the team.
50:37My guess is that they didn't. Right. But his floor in slot rate over each of his first three seasons is 75.2%.
50:43Right now, I'm on the hunt looking for who the best wide receiver is that played in the slot a lot under Shane Steichen.
50:51And I think I've come up with Keenan Allen in 2020.
50:54He played in the slot 52% of the time.
50:57Remember, he had 10.5 targets per game that year and he had 17.5 PPR points per game.
51:02Keenan Allen was an absolute lunatic that season. That's really about it.
51:06Slot receivers have not been huge factors other than Josh Downs who had...
51:10That would be the highest. Highest slot rate, 77%.
51:13That was in 24 and he had 13 PPR points per game.
51:16Yeah, you don't find players who have big fantasy seasons with slot rates over 70%.
51:21I think Tyler Boyd might be one guy who did it.
51:24Maybe Keenan Allen had a season or something like that, but you just don't really see it basically ever.
51:30But he doesn't have to have a big season.
51:33You just have a, you know, he's a must roster guy that we start a decent amount of times.
51:39Or he plays outside more. Yeah, I hope so.
51:42I hope he does. We got one more round here.
51:45Dave, you would not be surprised if Jaylen Waddle finished top 12 in PPR per game.
51:50Nope. I think Denver added him for a big reason.
51:53I think that that's one of the two biggest changes that the Broncos made this offseason.
51:57The other one being Davis Webb is their play caller.
52:01I don't think their run game is going to be a major factor, which is too bad because they've got a great offensive line.
52:08We'll see if RJ Harvey can take the second step or if Jonah Coleman can take the first step.
52:14And I know that they spread the ball around so much last year.
52:18I wonder if they consolidate it this year because they have Waddell.
52:21And Waddell might not be like two and a half targets per game better than Corlin Sutton, but he might be one
52:28target per game better because he can do more.
52:31He's more versatile of a receiver. We've seen that over his career.
52:35We know that he's speedy. I do worry about the injuries with Jalen Waddell, and I'll say that every single time.
52:41But when he's on the field and he's right, I would expect him to be at least a low end number two
52:48wide receiver in fantasy, if not potentially a top 12 guy.
52:51So I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes a top 12 guy.
52:55This one would surprise me a little bit, but I like you've you've been pretty pro Waddell ever since the trade.
53:01So I think I like I like your enthusiasm for him.
53:05He's a terrific player. We just hope we can see that again.
53:08Heath, how surprised would you be if Jalen Waddell finished top 12 per game in PPR?
53:13I would be pretty surprised. I think it would make if Cortland Sutton gets hurt and Jalen Waddell gets to score more touchdowns than maybe not.
53:21We've seen Sean Payton in the past really hyper focused the passing game on one wide receiver.
53:27It's not what he's done in Denver, even when Sutton was I guess Sutton had one year where I think he had 130 targets.
53:34But I they've been so spread the ball around over the last few years that it would take a major change in philosophy.
53:41OK, that is Jalen Waddell. We got two more.
53:44This one is Heath's. Oh, yeah, let's go. This one.
53:47Yeah, this one fired me up like a like a dynasty draft debate.
53:51Heath would not be surprised if A.J. Brown goes to the Patriots and has his worst season since he left Tennessee.
53:57Now, to frame that 2022 through 2025, he was with Philadelphia.
54:01A.J. Brown, I'll go from 2022 and then to the most recent year.
54:05He averaged 17.9, 17.3, 16.7. And then last year, 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
54:09That's the last four years. Heath is saying he'll be even worse than 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game.
54:15Oh, no, he would. I'm sorry. He wouldn't be surprised.
54:18He wouldn't be surprised if A.J. Brown has his worst season in the last five years.
54:23Yeah, I don't know that this is funny. I think this is saying basically his worst season since he was with Mike Grable, right?
54:30I was. OK, you know what? I don't know if he was worse in Tennessee or last year in Philadelphia.
54:37I will check that for you. OK, yeah, his his last year in Tennessee.
54:41It might be a per game thing. You're right.
54:44Touchdowns are 13.9 points per game in 2021. His last year with Mike Grable.
54:48I don't expect the Patriots to turn into a pass heavy offense.
54:52And it's kind of the same thing we just talked about with the Broncos is how much is Josh McDaniels going to
54:58change the spread the ball around plan if they go and spend a lot to get A.J.
55:04Brown. And then the other thing is and nobody wants to hear this, but is A.J.
55:09Brown at 29 years old starting to slow down at all?
55:12And I don't want to hear this. You can like you can make the case looking that he wasn't bad last year
55:19at all, but you can make the case looking at last year that there was a little bit of a drop off
55:25from the insane efficiency that is approved given throughout of his career.
55:29Yeah, I'm looking now, by the way, just I was like, you know, I wonder if there's some partial games in that 2021 season.
55:36Oh, yeah, we got a 12 percent snap game.
55:39We got a 52 percent snap game. We got a lot of Azer statin to do for that year.
55:45I think A.J. Brown's had a little Azer statting most of his career, hasn't he?
55:50There's he played hurt last year. Maybe he's at that point where he's going to have trouble staying healthy.
55:55I guess my counter would just be if you look at the very best season that the Eagles passing game had in the A.J.
56:03Brown era. It was 2022 his first year there.
56:06It was 4,364 yards and 25 touchdowns. Last year, Drake May threw for 4,426 yards and 31 touchdowns.
56:11I just feel like there's pretty much no way he's not going to be on a better passing environment, even if they're not pass heavy.
56:19They're going to be so much, especially what the Eagles were last year.
56:23Last two years, the Eagles have been 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns.
56:27So he's going to blow that away in New England.
56:30Dave? I think their pass offense will blow that away, yes.
56:33I think Drake May's pass efficiency will also regress a little bit.
56:37And I still like Drake May. I'm still drafting him as a top three quarterback, but I think he's probably not going
56:43to complete 72% of his passes and average nine yards per pass attempt.
56:47Yeah. How surprised, Dave, would you be if A.J.
56:50Brown had his worst season in five years? Moderately surprised, but not.
56:54You mentioned it. He's getting older and he was a little hurt last year.
56:58Played through it. Did the best that he could.
57:01There were times where he definitely looked like he was hurt.
57:04But I wouldn't be surprised if that was the reason why.
57:08It wouldn't be because of the offense, though, in New England.
57:11I just think that having Drake May throwing to you and that team could end up throwing a lot more this year than they did last year.
57:19And Brown would be the top target. I think he'd have a chance to have some good numbers.
57:25Final thought, Jamie? And this trade better happen, by the way.
57:28Right, right. I've resisted doing the work on it because what if the trade doesn't happen?
57:33Oh, it better. Jamie, how surprised would you be?
57:36Or just he goes to a different team. Like, we get A.J.
57:40Brown to the Dolphins. Or the Rams. I don't know that there's a team.
57:44The Rams would be bad. But is there a team that he goes to that he's worse than last year?
57:5014.7 PPR fantasy points per game, which isn't even that bad, but not great.
57:54I mean, there was a stretch last year where he was averaging over 19 PPR points per game.
58:00So, you know, he still has that, you know, gear in him.
58:04At least I still expect him to have it.
58:06Age and potential injury not be a factor. But, like, he gets worse.
58:10I think the Rams obviously has won just because it's so crowded there.
58:14Jaguars. Do we default to Cleveland? Cleveland? Yeah, that could be bad.
58:18I mean, almost any receiver that goes there. Jets would be bad.
58:22All right, I'll let Jamie finish here with his last one.
58:25Jamie would not be surprised. This is a Mike McDaniel special here.
58:29Would not be surprised if Omarian Hampton has a better fantasy season than Devon Achan.
58:33It is all tied to Mike McDaniel. Mike McDaniel, with his time in Miami, got a touchdown leading season out of Raheem Mostert.
58:40He had two great seasons out of Devon Achan, and now he leaves the Dolphins in what could be a very messy situation offensively, at least for 2026.
58:49And he goes to the Chargers, which should have one of the better offensive lines, you know, getting three new guys on
58:56the interior and getting their tackles back. Getting a guy that was a first-round pick in Omarian Hampton and showed a lot
59:03of great examples of being a potential standout running back next season.
59:06And Achan's situation is just potentially awful here in Miami.
59:09As we saw last year in the three games without Tua, the passing efficiency got a little bit worse.
59:15And so Will Malik Willis, who is probably more apt to run than Tua was, I think that's easy to say, is
59:22not going to throw the ball to Achan as much.
59:25Hopefully there will be a lot of design passes for him, and we get that, you know, easy opportunities because we talked about this last week.
59:33The Dolphins receiving core is bad. He hopefully will be among the target leaders on this team, and he's certainly been among
59:40the target leaders at his position for the last two seasons.
59:43But I wouldn't be surprised if the receiving numbers are close and Hampton's going to score more touchdowns.
59:49And I don't know. Mike McDaniel's influence is pretty big on this position.
59:53He was the running backs coach in San Francisco before taking the job in Miami.
59:57So I love the upside for Hampton, and I'm very nervous about the downside for Achan.
60:02Does anybody have concerns about Amarian Hampton, or is he a pretty safe pick in your mind?
60:07I don't think you could have safe in terms of a guy that didn't play a full season last year and, you know, his rookie season.
60:15So there has to be some concerns. I think he's safe to be an RB2, and he has the upside to be a good RB1.
60:23I'd be shocked if he's drafted as an RB2, though.
60:26Right. Also, you guys didn't actually resolve the fantasy cups.
60:29Can I just bring one thing up here before we do that?
60:33I got to call out Jamie for something. I mean, this is— Amarian Hampton's basically going back-to-back with Devon Achan.
60:39Come on. You got to be bolder than this.
60:42Good. I was just piggybacking off the Jacksonville streaming defense last week.
60:45I thought that's just the route we're going. Oh, come on.
60:49Come on. Yeah, this is not what Jamie's all about.
60:52Jamie's usually bolder than this. Top 10 for Kyler.
60:55I don't know. I did this after talking to you and the whole Dan thing.
60:59I was just— I didn't want to make you guys wait.
61:03And also, it seems like I'm being a little hard on Dan.
61:06I just want everybody to know he's one of my—he's my favorite colleague.
61:10Don't tell my other colleagues that, but he's my favorite colleague.
61:14I love Dan. He's a great guy. A lot of fun.
61:17He's my favorite character in the TV show of life.
61:20Yeah. But he's a character. What did we not resolve?
61:23The draft is currently paused. Yeah. What was the ruling?
61:26Do I allow the trade? No. Do I not allow Dan to make a pick?
61:31No, I would allow it. I mean, is— So you're talking about the trade of him and Stefan swapping players back so
61:38they can have room to make picks. I would not let Dan walk out of this draft without at least three picks.
61:44I think Docum a fourth-round pick. It is his fault.
61:47He's being publicly shamed right now. I think that's kind of a pretty harsh penalty.
61:52Don't let him make a fourth pick. He doesn't deserve that.
61:55But I would let him make a third pick.
61:58Personally. And Dave and Jamie said no. Nope. No, I think Dave said it best.
62:03If you allow the trades to continue like this, you're setting a precedent that it's allowed to trade back and forth the
62:10same players to make yourself better in terms of your fantasy roster, which is the definition of collusion.
62:15And so if you're going to allow him to make a third-round pick, he should have—you tell him, I'm starting the clock.
62:22You have three hours, which is what your timer is, to find a way to make a trade that is valid to
62:29get players off of your roster to make a pick.
62:32Let me just ask you this. Real-life scenario here.
62:34Let's say the Giants were about to play a game at 1 o'clock, and it's 1128, and they haven't submitted their inactives yet.
62:41Right? And you've got to do it by 1130.
62:44Don't you think Roger Goodell is on the phone with the Giants going, guys, where are your inactives?
62:50That's how you do it. That's exactly how life works.
62:53And John Harbaugh is going to say, wait a minute.
62:56I didn't get an email from you, Roger. I didn't know the inactives were due then.
63:01Give me a break. Adam, you remember the made-up rules that you implement in your leagues?
63:06No. I make them up as I go. I don't remember.
63:09Correct. And you've punished me twice for— Oh, no.
63:12This is totally your fault. I told you 100 times you had to drop someone.
63:17You didn't do it, and I dropped someone for you.
63:20And I'm trying to prevent that. You did. Yeah.
63:22You made an imaginary rule, and then you followed through with it, and you punished me.
63:27So Heath has an actual rule that's in place, and you're telling him to allow the person who's breaking that rule to get away with it.
63:35Okay. I think that— I'm sorry. What? Couldn't hear you through the hypocrisy.
63:39No. Not at all. I just think that— Look, this is the rookie draft of a dynasty league.
63:45This is really, really important, right? It didn't seem like it was that important to Dan.
63:50Well, it is important to Dan. It just— He's a little— Okay.
63:53If there's a word I would use for Dan, it's scatterbrained.
63:57Okay? So he's a little scatterbrained, and this is the rookie draft of your dynasty league.
64:02You're building the foundation of your team. This is the second year of the league, so it's not like the original draft.
64:08But you're building the foundation of your team. This is really important.
64:12I know he screwed up, and I do believe there should be a penalty.
64:16I don't think we should take away his third-round pick.
64:19You're still— Like, I just drafted— No, no, no, no.
64:23You're not taking away his third-round pick. He does not have the ability to make a third-round pick without doing something illegal.
64:29All right. So you're basically forcing him to make an actual trade to free up a roster spot to take— Yes, which
64:36he did in his second-round pick, which was perfectly legal.
64:39That's the rule. All right. He could trade his third and his— Yeah, trade his third and his fourth and one of
64:46those players for a later pick, and— All right.
64:49I would probably— Or just suck it up and say it's over.
64:52I would have just expanded the rosters. I don't like the rule personally.
64:56So you would have made up another rule just to suit your commissionership?
65:00Wait, make up another rule? What do you mean?
65:03You would have just changed the rules based on what you wanted it to be.
65:08Well, as a commissioner, yeah. I mean, that's— Got it.
65:11I would make my rule. So it's understanding how— No, I don't mean—I wouldn't change it right now.
65:16But I would have just done it differently to begin with.
65:20I would have just said, all right, you can make your draft picks and then make some cuts later.
65:25I would have expanded the rosters. See, but there's— But if you don't make them in time, I'll just remove players from your team.
65:33There's another part of this, which this will be a tease for Wednesday because I wouldn't say it.
65:38I wouldn't reveal it until Dan is here. There's another part of this that he texted you that needs to be said.
65:45The email thing? You don't have to say anything more.
65:48Just have to tune in Wednesday. Good tease. Good tease for Wednesday.
65:52All right. Good stuff today, guys. I wouldn't be surprised if I've lost a friend today when Dan listens back to the show.
65:59No, you defended Dan. You're definitely Dan's defender. I tried.
66:02I tried my best. We'll talk to him. I like Dan, too.
66:06What'd you say? I like Dan, too. We all do.
66:09He's the best. We'll see you at Fantasy Football today.
66:12We will talk to you Wednesday. Have a great day, everybody.
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