PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
2026 Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts: Devil’s Advocate Edition! (07/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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1 hr 12 min
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Jul 20, 2026
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Mon, July 20, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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1:53What a play! It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
1:56Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
1:59Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
2:02Monday, July 20th. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. It's Devil's Advocate Day, where I get to look at Jamie and Dave's sleepers,
2:09busts, and players they love, and play Devil's Advocate, be like, nah, I think you might be wrong about that.
2:15Also, World Cup Final. Yesterday, actually, I don't know, kind of cool.
2:19You know, you of all people, as a Giants fan, should appreciate that there was no scoring.
2:24Yeah. I fell asleep. I slept through the first about 75 minutes of the game.
2:29I didn't miss anything. And then I left the room for 10 seconds and missed the only goal.
2:34But anyway, football season is over. But training camp has begun, so real football season is here.
2:40And fantasy football season is certainly here, and we're fired up about it.
2:44All right. So, Devil's Advocate today on Patrick Mahomes as a sleeper, Devon A.
2:48Chan as a bust, Devontae Adams as a bust, Zay Flowers and Omari and Hampton to have big seasons, Kenneth Gainwell as a sleeper.
2:56These are calls that Dave and Jamie have made, and I'm just going to see what could go wrong with those calls.
3:02But first, I think this is kind of a cool stat.
3:06And on Wednesday, we're going to have a Do These Stats Matter episode.
3:10So here's, in the spirit of that, you know, Patrick Mahomes, Dave, is a guy you have as a sleeper.
3:16And for whatever reason, he has been so bad inside the five-yard line over the last two years.
3:22It just, they stink there. Guys aren't getting open.
3:24The completion percentage is bad. And the one guy, though, that's been pretty good is Rasheed Rice.
3:30And Rasheed Rice had a 58.3% target share inside the five-yard line when he played from week seven through 15.
3:36That would have led the NFL over a full season.
3:39The only guy who was better from week seven through 15, had a higher target share inside the five-yard line, was Devontae Adams.
3:46So I think the point I'd like to make here, just watching the tape and seeing that stat, is that Travis Kelsey,
3:53I think, used to be that guy for Patrick Mahomes.
3:56And we're not really going to talk about Rasheed Rice much on this episode.
4:01But I think Rasheed Rice has to be that guy now.
4:04And we think about him with catches, catches, catches, catches.
4:07But I think there's a chance that even, he's not the biggest guy.
4:11He's not the typical Evans-Adams kind of guy. I think he could be a goal line receiver, basically, Dave.
4:17And I think this stat could be pretty important.
4:20True. But let's not lose sight of the fact that Mahomes last year, despite playing only 14 games, and he got hurt,
4:27I think, fairly early on in one of those games, was tied for fifth among quarterbacks in touchdowns inside the five with nine.
4:34So not a huge number. And I get what you're saying.
4:37Really? Yeah. I don't know. Rushing or? No, no, no.
4:40That's passing. Okay. Strictly passing touchdowns. He had nine of them inside the five.
4:45Yeah. All right. Well, his efficiency has been much worse.
4:48And the touchdowns have been down in recent years.
4:51Like, he's 22nd in completion rate inside the five-yard line the last two years.
4:55The first six seasons of his career, he was second in completion rate.
4:59He was also top five in pass attempts inside the five, which is a pretty big factor, too, if he's having all these opportunities.
5:07Yet, he's inefficient. He can still score touchdowns. You do have to wonder.
5:11And first of all, it sounds so silly to me to have Patrick Mahomes as a sleeper.
5:16Like, those two words do not go together. But his value in drafts is so good that I can't help but want
5:23to take him with a middle-to-late-round pick. And that's where he's been going in drafts.
5:27And you do have to wonder how Kenneth Walker's arrival could impact just how many pass attempts he does get inside the five.
5:35And that does hurt his case. So, there you go.
5:38Part of your devil's advocate case for Mahomes. I made it for you.
5:42You're welcome. You know what? I was focusing on Rice with this stat, but we can jump right into the Mahomes sleeper thing.
5:49But, Jamie, unless you want to get a word in about Rasheed Rice potentially being that guy, maybe there's some hidden fantasy
5:56value that we didn't even kind of factor in for Rice.
5:59I shouldn't say that. But it's like a little sneaky that he could be that reliable touchdown guy for Mahomes.
6:05I think that, first off, probably three separate categories here.
6:08I think for Rice, it's pretty easy to see how good he can be if he just stays on the field.
6:15So, you have a really crappy receiving core in its entirety on paper.
6:19It's awful. And so, aside from Rice, you know, you have Worthy who has yet to do anything.
6:25You have Kelsey who's 36. You have Taequann Thornton who is what he is.
6:29I mean, you know, Cyrus Allen's getting a lot of buzz.
6:32Understandably so. Everybody else probably stinks. So, they need Rasheed Rice to be healthy and to be on the field if they don't add anybody else.
6:41Mahomes, I agree with Dave that it's – so, I struggle with this.
6:45My sleepers – I've already done two versions of sleepers.
6:48Like, once you get past, like, the quarterbacks that everybody is going to draft, I think, top 13, 14-ish guys.
6:54You know, and Mahomes kind of toes that line a little bit.
6:58Like, anybody sees these guys late, they're going to draft them.
7:01If they have the ability to carry two quarterbacks, their rosters are deep enough.
7:05Like, why would you not take Patrick Mahomes to be just sitting there with what he can be?
7:11Well, okay. We'll talk about Mahomes in a second.
7:14But I think the point that Dave made about Kenneth Walker is the most telling here about this entire thing.
7:20They were 32nd in running the ball last year.
7:23They stunk. They could not do anything on the ground.
7:26And that's what their entire offseason has been. You have Mahomes coming off of his knee injury.
7:31They need to take pressure off of him, at least in the early part of the season.
7:37So it's going to be Walker. It's going to be Di Mercado.
7:40It's going to be Johnson. It's going to be whatever they get out of Brashard Smith, probably more of a special teams guy than anything else.
7:48But they now have entirely revamped their run game.
7:51And hopefully for the better if you're in on Kenneth Walker.
7:55But still, Mahomes is going to be a solid fantasy quarterback.
7:58It's just to what extent. And again, we'll get into this, but will he run as much?
8:03And that's the biggest concern because coming off the two ligament tears in his knee, ACL and MCL, is he going to
8:10still be able to produce like that? And that's the concern.
8:14And that was a week 15 injury too. It was late in the season for him.
8:19I think ACL and LCL. Two ligaments. Sorry if I got it wrong.
8:23Jamie, can you talk about the difference between the LCL and the MCL?
8:27No, let me call Marty. Because I certainly can't.
8:29All right, let's get into Mahomes in a second.
8:32Just a quick little promo here. Tomorrow is our Scott Turner episode.
8:36He's coming back on. He was such a great guest last month.
8:40One of the things he said was that Brock Bowers may be the best player he's ever coached.
8:45Really resonated with me. Talked about DJ Moore. We asked him about all the guys, a lot of the guys that he had coached.
8:53DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, Garrett Wilson, Brock Bowers, et cetera.
8:56And so he's a former offensive coordinator. Was most recently the passing game coordinator for the Jets.
9:01He came on and was so good that we decided to have him back.
9:06So if you have any questions for Scott, I think I have four so far through email.
9:11Send us an email at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Put Scott Turner a question in the subject line.
9:16And we will try to read them on tomorrow's show.
9:19Wednesday, Do These Stats Matter? Thursday and Friday, of course, we have episodes.
9:23But we also have a CBS Sports Network episode 1 p.m.
9:26Eastern on Thursday on CBS Sports Network. So big week for us.
9:30Devil's Advocate on Patrick Mahomes as a sleeper. First of all, he's going about QB 13 or 14.
9:3613 in Fantasy Pro's ADP. 14 in CBS ADP.
9:39So 100th, about 105th to 120th or something like that in ADP.
9:42Let's call him around 9, 10, 11 pick. Let's say around 10.
9:46Is there any case you want to make for him as a sleeper, Dave, that you haven't already made?
9:52He averaged over 23 fantasy points per game and six point last year in his first six games without Rasheed Rice.
9:58That was over 28 fantasy points per game. I still view him as one of the best throwers in the NFL.
10:05I know he had a bunch of rushing stats last year.
10:08And I think push comes to shove. He will take off and run if he has to.
10:14I don't think the rushing yardage and the rushing touchdowns will be as good as it's been in the past because of
10:21the knee injury, because of the opportunities or lack thereof, because the run game should be better this year.
10:26But he's still one of the best quarterbacks. And really, it's all about the ADP.
10:31The fact that we're getting him so much later than so many other quarterbacks, I don't even care.
10:37If I draft Josh Allen in round three or four, I will still draft Mahomes later and have both those guys sit one on the bench.
10:45What's the downside that Mahomes averages 21 fantasy points per game?
10:48We've seen that from him in 2023 and 2024.
10:51That's still decent. That's still OK. Bi-week quarterback. Maybe somebody gets hurt and I can trade Mahomes.
10:56And the offense is going to be better this year.
10:59I think they'll be a little bit more balanced.
11:02So not as reliant on him overall, but still for opponent.
11:06I disagree with this notion that it's a bad receiving core.
11:09I think they're still good. Are they around middle of the pack?
11:13Sure. Who's good, though, besides Rice? We don't know what Worthy is because he got hurt last year.
11:18And if Worthy does his job right and if Rice draws attention, then I think Kelsey will be in one-on-one situations enough where he can be solid.
11:27Not good because he's almost 40, but solid. And then you've got Kenneth Walker and whoever else catching passes out of the backfield.
11:34I still want to give the benefit of the doubt to Andy Reid as far as play calling goes, that he can make some things work.
11:42I think the offensive line, as long as they stay healthy, I think they'll be able to protect Patrick Mahomes a little bit better.
11:50Yeah, I think that this is going to be a league-average group of pass catchers as a total with one of the
11:56best quarterbacks in the league, and he's a force multiplier that makes them better than they are.
12:02Well, that's all well and good, Dave. But here comes the devil's advocate.
12:06Okay? I am a friend of the devils today.
12:09First of all, you're not going to see this on the graphic, but I don't really agree with you about this notion
12:15that he's such good value because he's still going basically the same...
12:19Patrick Mahomes is basically the same ADP as Matthew Stafford.
12:22He's going ahead of Jared Goff. He's going ahead of Bo Nix.
12:26And these guys are also, you know, maybe not Nix, I don't know, but these are very good fantasy options.
12:32Trevor Lawrence isn't going that much further ahead of Patrick Mahomes.
12:36So even though he's QB 13 or 14, he's still in a range of very good quarterbacks.
12:41I think that's a premium pick at the quarterback position.
12:44Premium might be a strong word, but still a valuable pick at the quarterback position.
12:49Okay. Why devil's advocate? He was quarterback five per game last year in six point per passing touchdown leagues, but he averaged 30 rushing yards per game.
12:57By far a career high. He's usually more like 21 rushing yards per game.
13:01And now he's coming off a torn ACL and XCL or LCL, whatever the heck it was, in week 15.
13:08So definitely going to be less than 30 rushing yards per game.
13:11Might be less than 20 rushing yards per game.
13:14Last three seasons, he's been a good quarterback. He's been sixth in yards.
13:18He's been ninth in touchdowns per game, passing touchdowns, but ninth in fantasy points per game.
13:23And before last year, QB nine per game, QB 10 per game in six point, QB 12 per game, QB 11 per
13:30game in four point in 2023 and 2024. Why?
13:33Because of the lack of big plays. The explosive plays are just gone.
13:37The past attempts of 20 more air yards, just not good anymore.
13:41Is it all his fault? Definitely not. But we need to see that change.
13:45Maybe Xavier worthy will be the key to that.
13:48I don't know. I don't think Taequann Thornton is the answer.
13:51And then my last note here, receiving core, not that great.
13:55You guys already went over it. You have differing opinions on that, but they didn't really add much other than Cyrus Allen to the receiving core.
14:03So what does he do this year? If he's not rushing, is he still like QB 10, QB 11, which he was in 2023 and 2024?
14:11Also think about the amount of plays that Patrick Mahomes makes off schedule because of his mobility.
14:16You know, does he have to stay in the pocket more this year?
14:20Is that a problem? You know? So I just think, I think the knee injury could be a big issue for him.
14:27And if you look at two of the last three years, you're barely based on how he finished in 2023 and 2024,
14:34you're barely getting any value on him at QB 13 overall.
14:37So that's my argument for Patrick Mahomes as a sleeper.
14:40I don't think he's going late enough. I think you're drafting him pretty close to his floor and that's what makes him exciting.
14:48You mentioned some of those quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence, who I would take ahead of Mahomes this year.
14:53Mahomes has been better on a per game basis each of the last three years.
14:58Jared Goff, two of the last three years, Mahomes has been better.
15:01Who else did you name in that? Stafford. Two of the last three years, Mahomes has been better.
15:07Obviously, Stafford last year was really, really good. Guess what?
15:10He was about two and a half points per game better than Mahomes in 2025.
15:15But so much of it was rushing. 30 rushing yards per game.
15:18no, no. I heard you when you said it.
15:21But the idea that Patrick Mahomes is about to become Kirk Cousins is mystifying to me.
15:26I don't think that that's what's going to happen.
15:29This is, the leopard doesn't change his spots. And while he might not, he, he may stay in the pocket a tad longer.
15:36He may hesitate a little bit to, to run with the ball when things break down, but he's a gamer at heart.
15:43All these guys are. And I would be surprised if his rushing yardage goes from 30 to zero.
15:49If it goes from 30 to 20, no one's going to be surprised.
15:53If it goes from 30 to 15 per game, all right, I'm, I'm shedding a point per game.
15:58That's a, that's a lot. It's a problem. But again, it's, it's still a quarterback that we're drafting in close to the
16:05double digit rounds at his literal floor. And what if Adam, what if the receiving core stays healthy, the home stays mobile.
16:12He still has a good arm. The, the efficiency on deep passing gets a little bit better.
16:17You're, you're getting a steal. He's such a great quarterback just in general that I don't mind taking the chance on him with a late round pick.
16:26Okay. Um, yeah, by the way, again, I'm just playing devil's advocate.
16:29So don't necessarily, no, you're not. I know. This is how you really feel.
16:34I mean, look, I think there's some positives that I didn't mention because the devil wouldn't let me mention it, but he's been really like the play action.
16:42And efficiency has been a lot worse. And I think that's going to, that's going to improve, right?
16:48Especially with Walker there. Absolutely. I think there's a fun one for you.
16:52Uh, he gets the enemy back as his offense coordinator.
16:55Yeah, sure. During their time together, he averaged over 28 fantasy points for him.
16:59Yeah. But I just, there, there's been one year in his career is 2022 where Juju Smith Schuster was their best receiver.
17:06Emma Holmes was great. Other than that, it's been prime Kelsey and Tyree kill.
17:11And that, you know, those guys aren't walking through that door.
17:14And honestly, he hasn't even been that much better when we're she rice.
17:18in fact, you could argue he's been worse when we're she rice has been on the field.
17:23I don't even know that. She writes is that good for him because it causes my homes to just have a six yard, a dot basically.
17:32Although that's the big thing. I want to mention that last year, the a dot went back up.
17:37The explosive plays got a little bit better and he did improve.
17:41He needs to be throwing the ball downfield more because 2023 and four, just too much dink and dunk.
17:47All right. I, I think is, I mean, for the record, if you care, I think you make a good point about my home as being a sleeper.
17:56Just, I don't think he's going to be fifth per game necessarily, but it's in the range of outcomes.
18:01I suppose he's going to have to, they're going to have to hit more explosive plays for that to happen.
18:08Yeah. All right, let's take a break. And when we come back, we'll go through some news.
18:13Stop doing backflips. Cam Scadaboo. We'll be right back.
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21:01News and notes. Cam Scadaboo did another backflip to prove how healthy he was, and he didn't stick the landing, and I just don't get it.
21:09Why would you do that, dude? But apparently he's okay.
21:13Did you see who he was on the dais with?
21:16No, I didn't. It was Jackson Dart and two of our friends from the Fantasy Footballers.
21:21No kidding! Yeah, they asked him the question that everybody's been circulating, his answer.
21:25Oh, how's he doing? About doing the backflips. Oh, what'd he say?
21:29What did Scadaboo say? Essentially, like, I'm going to continue to do it.
21:33Oh, okay. I'm not going to get hurt before the season starts.
21:36Yeah, well, yeah. Almost did. I guess then I should say that Andy Holloway of the Footballers is going to be in
21:43the FFT Open if anybody wants to play against him.
21:46He was not there. Because he's preparing for the FFT Open.
21:50It's taking it very seriously. More on that. We'll talk about that later in the week.
21:55Former Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald is working out to see if he's in shape to play this season, according to Bleacher Report.
22:02Good article on CBSSports.com on our NFL arena. It's just an injury update on some of the key players who are entering
22:09training camp with some type of injury question and what their status looks like.
22:13So, a few big ones here. Green Bay linebacker Micah Parsons could miss a chunk of the season.
22:19And that could actually, I think, be fantasy relevant because that could mean worse defense, more passing, and that's what we need from Jordan Love.
22:27I have what should be the layup of all layup bets with our friend Pete Prisco.
22:32Ah, what do we got? So, Pete in his top 100 had Micah Parsons ahead of Will Anderson.
22:37I didn't agree with that one. No. I said, because Will Anderson has two healthy legs right now.
22:43They were healthy. It's a different story. So, we have a bet whose guy has more sacks this season.
22:49So, the longer Micah Parsons missed, not sacks per game, total sacks.
22:52Why would he make that bet? Because he thinks that Micah Parsons is going to come back and be a game-wrecker.
22:59So, I mean, he could. He could, yeah, but that's a bad bet.
23:03Congratulations. He's counting on Will Anderson's, you know, he hasn't hit that high-end sack number yet.
23:08All right. Interesting. Okay. I feel pretty good about that one.
23:11And then a couple other defensive notes. Two safeties for the Lions, Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch.
23:17They don't really have a timetable. They could miss big chunks of the season, especially Branch.
23:22And again, we'd love bad defense, more passing. Philadelphia rookie wide receiver Makai Lemon said he'll be full go for the start of training camp.
23:29He's recovering from a hamstring injury. And Baltimore signs center Ethan Posick.
23:33Dave, he's coming off a torn Achilles. He's a veteran center.
23:37They need a center. Is he guaranteed to be the starter for the Ravens?
23:41What's the deal here with Ethan Posick? I would imagine that if he's healthy and ready to go, or even if he's
23:48like 85%, he can beat out, you know, former Colts starter Danny Pinter for that job.
23:53But it's just a hunch. I don't know. Pinter's a decent offensive lineman himself.
23:57So I guess that's one of those spots that we'll see on.
24:01But the rest of that offensive line for Baltimore really isn't that bad when healthy.
24:06On paper, it's actually a pretty decent front five.
24:08Okay. Adam, I know you've just been watching Kim Scadaboo do flips over and over again.
24:13And I asked you this last week about Marvin Harrison.
24:16Did you see the photo of Travis Hunter? No.
24:19So go look at it quickly. See how Travis Hunter looks.
24:23Then you can compare it to Marvin Harrison. But while you're looking at that, apparently Trevor Lawrence took his entire receiving court
24:29to go throw, except for one person. Travis Hunter?
24:32Please don't say Parker Washington. Please don't say Parker Washington.
24:35Please don't say Parker Washington. It's apparently not there.
24:38Oh. Yeah. I don't know what to search here.
24:41I just typed Travis Hunter shirtless pick on my work laptop.
24:44Yeah. I might get a call from HR today.
24:47So I didn't see anything. Did you click on the phone number I told you to use yesterday, by the way?
24:54No. What was that? Pretty sure that was our producer's phone number.
24:57So Thomas is out today. Our other producer, Sam, is Sam Davis, is producing this week.
25:02And I didn't have Sam's phone number because he's relatively new.
25:06And Jamie gave a phone number and a group chat.
25:09He said, this is Sam's number. And I was like, there's just no way.
25:13I didn't believe you for one second. So whose number was it?
25:17You don't have to. Just tap it, and you'll see who it is.
25:21No. It's going to call the person. No, it's not.
25:24I'm a little lost in my texts here. This is.
25:27You want me to do this? Yeah. Who is it?
25:30Who is it? I'll do it right now. Hold on.
25:34All right. Meanwhile, let's get into some Devil's Advocate, starting with Jamie.
25:37Sam. This is your number, right? Okay. All right.
25:40Get at it. No chance. That was Sam. Yeah, right.
25:43Sam. Let's see who it is. All right. Anyway, Jamie, you have Devon Achan as a bust.
25:49You're going to make your bust case, and I'm going to play Devil's Advocate.
25:53What's your bust case for Devon A. Chan, who is a second-round pick right now, going about 16th overall?
25:59The Dolphins stink. I think. You done? Yeah, I'm good.
26:02All right. Let's go. Let's go. The Devil didn't want to wait, because guess what?
26:07They stunk last year, too. They were, first of all, they were 30th in pass attempts, so he still was able to catch passes there in that environment.
26:15And yeah, they were, what? They were like 28th in scoring or something like that?
26:20I don't even remember. They were really bad. First of all, he is so good, Devil's Advocate case.
26:26He's so good. I gave this stat a couple weeks ago that Jameer Gibbs has averaged 1.5 fantasy points per touch since coming into the NFL.
26:34Well, so has Devon A. Chan, and that is insanely good.
26:37That is better than the very best of LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes back in the day.
26:42They had a bad offense in 2025. And then I have this line here, Bueller, Bueller, which is my way of saying, who else?
26:50There's no one else on the team. You want to talk about the Chiefs being bad?
26:55This is the worst team in football other than Devon A.
26:58Chan. He's the only guy. And 2023, Brees Hall is an inspiration.
27:02He was the number two running back in PPR overall, number six per game, number five per game in half PPR.
27:09He had 76 catches that year. The Jets were 30th in points per game.
27:13They had Garrett Wilson on the team with 168 targets.
27:16They did throw a lot, 35.4 pass attempts per game.
27:19That's just an example of a running back on a terrible offense who had a really good year.
27:25Jonathan Taylor also did it on a really bad offense as well.
27:28So that's my devil's advocate case for Devon A.
27:31Chan. He's too good. The offense was bad last year.
27:34Brees Hall has done it on a really bad offense.
27:37And there's just no one else on the team.
27:40He's going to get every touch. Everyone. It's obviously a hope is that he's going to get every touch.
27:46But the concerns would be twofold. One, their projected win total is four and a half in Vegas.
27:52And so that leads you to believe they're not going to score very much.
27:56And the touchdown opportunities are not going to be there for him.
28:00So that's hard to trust that he's going to get into the end zone on the ground.
28:05Probably overall. You know what the numbers have been.
28:08We talked about this a lot with Tua without Tua.
28:11So over the last two years, he's almost 10 points per game worse without Tua Tungvaluwa on the field.
28:1710 fantasy points per game worse without Tua on the field.
28:20That's amazing. The targets per game, nearly three per game less without Tua on the field the last two seasons.
28:27And Malik Willis is going to be most likely.
28:29The small sample size that we have. Fewest target percentage to running backs as a passer.
28:34That is probably not going to change very much.
28:37Now, maybe it does with some design plays to Devon HN because the receiving core is so bad.
28:43It's just a very bad environment for him. And so I think if you're getting him in round two, his upside as
28:50a player just by himself is still potentially worth it.
28:53But then you just have to weigh it against who else is around him.
28:57So he's going to go in that group of running backs of Chase Brown, Ken Walker, Ashton Gentry, Omari and Hampton, Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley.
29:05And obviously pros and cons for all of those guys can either be better or worse than HN depending on how you want to look at it.
29:13But this could just be one of those situations where this team is so unbelievably awful that his numbers are just not
29:20going to excel and exceed to what the expectations are for where you're drafting him.
29:25So I'm just a little bit concerned. I think round two is still a good spot for him.
29:30I have still seen some cases where he goes in round one.
29:34I hate it. It just makes me sick to see him go ahead of James Cook in some cases, Chase Brown in
29:41some cases, some of these other guys. I just can't make the argument that he's better than those guys.
29:47So just given the circumstances, if he was on any other team, any other team, I think he's got top five upside
29:54overall top five player overall upside because we've seen it.
29:57But I just don't think that happens this year.
30:00They were 25th in scoring last year. I'm sorry.
30:02I was looking for that number. You do, Jamie, have HN as your RB seven.
30:07So behind Chase Brown continues to slide. Yeah. Right now, still ahead of Walker, Hampton, Gentry, Barkley, Henry.
30:13I'm obviously conflicted. I pick guys that I'm conflicted on here, even though I'm going to make the devil's advocate case.
30:19You know, I'm nervous as hell about HN Dave because here's another thing.
30:23I mean, what if he has some minor injury late in the season?
30:27You know, they're almost certainly not going to make the playoffs.
30:31I'd be surprised if they were in it, like in the mix.
30:35They could easily shut him down. I don't usually play that game, but they could be the worst team in football.
30:41They have incentive to shut him down. So where do you come out on him at 16th overall for HN Dave?
30:48Too high, too low? Or is that porridge just right?
30:51I've got him higher. And it's not with a ton of confidence.
30:54It's more like, who else am I going to take when I get to the one-two turn that I think has the
31:01potential to deliver 16 PPR points per game? And I settled on that number because, A, what Jamie said about Malik Willis'
31:08running back target rate, it's very true. It's very low, 13.1% in the pros, 9.1% in college.
31:13This is typical with running quarterbacks. They don't like to check it down.
31:17But also Bobby Slowick, when he was in Houston, the running backs had a 16% target share.
31:23So it's not going to be high. And we're coming off of a year where he caught 67 passes, almost 500 yards, four touchdowns.
31:30That made up about 43% of his total PPR point value in 2025.
31:34That's scary to think about. And I don't know.
31:37I'd have to go back and double check. I'd want to fact check those stats that he's 10 points per game worse without Tua.
31:45But I do know. It's insane. Yeah. No. Last year was 4.7.
31:48And he averaged 20.8 with Tua and then 16.1 in two games, tiny sample size, without Tua Tunga-Vailoa.
31:54So I'm thinking that he can get to around 16 PPR points per game.
31:58And if I'm drafting him at that number, who am I looking at that's going to be better than that?
32:04I agree 100% with Jamie. I think James Cook is going to be better than that.
32:09I think Chase Brown will be right around there.
32:12I feel a little bit better about Chase Brown and his offensive environment than I do.
32:17Devon Achan sub two targets per game. But some of the receivers that we've talked about, you can poke some holes in.
32:24And I think I'd rather just take the chance on Achan having a bunch of breakout games.
32:29I'm with you, Adam. I don't think about late season benching because of a minor injury or anything like that.
32:36He's still just a rare talent. And as long as he's healthy through training camp, I do think this Dolphins offense will
32:42put up points in some of their games. I don't think that they're going to be so bad that they're going to
32:49be held to three and ten points most weeks.
32:52Could be some garbage time mixed in. But I think Devon Achan is still worthy of being a top 15, top 16 pick as of now.
33:00There aren't enough wide receivers that I look at and go, yeah, I got to take him ahead of Devon Achan for sure.
33:07All right. And then the last devil's advocate point, I guess I'd say, is all the stats you guys gave about Malik
33:14Willis not throwing to his running backs. Bobby Slowik, now offensive coordinator for the Dolphins, not throwing to his running backs in Houston.
33:21Malik Willis was playing with Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs.
33:24Bobby Slowik, one year he did have Joe Mixon, who had 52 targets in 14 games, which isn't bad.
33:30That's just pretty good for Mixon. And the other year he had like Devin Singletary and Damian Pierce.
33:36So it's just Achan's a different animal. If you don't throw to him, then you're insane.
33:41But it's not that they're not going to throw it.
33:44They're just not going to throw to him as much.
33:47Yeah. You're talking about – so this is – I saw this in Fantasy Points data.
33:52So this is running back favoritism, a graphic that they had early in July 2024, 2025.
33:57Tua first in this category. Malik Willis last in this category.
34:01Like there's no way – and you're right, Adam.
34:03It's who he was throwing to, but it's also who was throwing to Achan.
34:08So it's like there's – you couldn't get any different in terms of the profiles for the two quarterbacks.
34:14Yes. Yes, it's true. One guy runs a lot.
34:16One guy can't move. But I just – I'm curious to see.
34:20It's an interesting experiment, right? This is kind of like the tight end thing with Trey McBride.
34:25I'm sorry, blanking on the name. Petsing. How did I blank on that name?
34:30But is it a personnel thing? Is it a tendency thing?
34:33Because what is Malik Willis going to do when his best receiver by far is his running back?
34:39I would assume he's going to have a career-high RB target rate.
34:43If he doesn't, he's insane. All right. Next one.
34:45Dave Devontae Adams is a bust for you. And oh, am I going to devil's advocate the crap out of you on this one?
34:53But what's your bust case for Adams? Almost 40% of his PPR total in 2025 came from the 14 touchdowns that he had.
35:00I have a hard time believing he's going to match that number.
35:04And I think the ADP is just a little too high.
35:07I recognize he's still one of the better wide receivers in this league.
35:11You can go watch his film from week nine.
35:14There are plenty of examples on there. Just I picked a random week to see it.
35:19You could probably see it any week. He can still get open.
35:23He's got some great cuts. We know he's not the de facto number one wide receiver.
35:28And we know he's more of a red zone threat.
35:31But I just imagine that the touchdowns are going to go down.
35:35The targets have gone down each of the last two years for him.
35:39His PPR points per game total has gone down just as much.
35:42It's like two targets per game and two fantasy points per game down each of the last two years.
35:48We know he's 34 years old. He's going to turn 34 this season.
35:52There's a lot of downside that has to be baked into Devontae Adams.
35:56And I feel like his ADP is just too high.
35:59It's too rich for somebody who can still be good and can still contribute to fantasy leagues.
36:05But just not to the point where people are drafting him and picking him up at right now.
36:10All right. Oh, I'm so excited. Like his ADP on Fantasy Pros, last I looked, was late round four.
36:16No. I'd go a full round later. Okay. Yeah, you're right.
36:20But he's wide receiver 24. So late round four, I don't know.
36:23I mean, I just think at wide receiver 24, and I actually believe this, I think that's actually fine for Devontae Adams.
36:30Here's my devil's advocate case for him. He's also wide receiver 28, by the way, in CBS ADP.
36:36Okay. No target competition added. He's still, because he actually was on pace for 138 targets last year.
36:4181.6% catchable target rate. That's really bad. One of the lowest of his career.
36:46And he had a high A dot for him.
36:49So that's part of it. But he and Stafford, as good of a year that Adams had, his wide receiver nine per
36:55game in PPR, they were not on the same page all the time.
36:59They didn't have great chemistry, it seemed. I feel like the catchable target rate's going to go up.
37:05He still gets open. ESPN had Devontae Adams with the 14th best open score.
37:09Dave just talked about it. Watch the film. He gets open.
37:13Fantasy Point, Status Week, I believe, has him number one overall in separation.
37:17And he is a touchdown machine. We know that.
37:20Eight or more touchdowns in nine of the last 10 seasons.
37:23And eight or more touchdowns in nine straight seasons when he's played at least 12 games.
37:28So I'm going to throw out a number at you here.
37:32I looked at all of the examples of a wide receiver catching eight or more touchdowns in the last decade.
37:38And I came up with a number of 13.4 PPR fantasy points per game.
37:42That is the basically wide receiver 24 per game in 2024 was like 14.4.
37:46And in 2025, it was about 12.4. So I picked 13.4 as wide receiver 24.
37:51Let's just say that because that's his ADP. 86% of wide receivers who have caught eight or more touchdowns over the last
37:58decade have averaged 13.4 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
38:0186%. 92% of wide receivers who have caught 10 or more touchdowns have averaged 13.4 or more points per game.
38:08He's basically Derrick Henry as a wide receiver. So that's my argument for Devontae Adams.
38:12I think wide receiver 24 is perfectly fine. So, Jamie?
38:15I think you're right about that. You know, I don't think anybody would love to draft him in round four.
38:22So you're both probably coming at it from the right perspective of A, the ADP for fantasy pros is just pushing up
38:28wide receivers a little bit too much. And B, wide receiver 24 is the right range for him.
38:34I think I have him 26, 25, 26 in that range.
38:38So I'm perfectly fine with that if you're just going to be chasing wide receivers.
38:42I think you could probably find some other players in that range round-wise that are probably a little bit better or safer.
38:49But, look, the biggest thing for me with Devontae Adams, yes, the touchdowns were the reason why he was a good fantasy receiver last year.
38:57He had 15 total when you factor in the playoffs.
39:00He also missed a couple games too. So still very impressive with how much he was able to find the end zone.
39:0744th in receptions, 60-something in receiving yards. Like, it was awful for him.
39:11I think it was 60-something. You know, just – I'm sorry.
39:14It was 34th in receiving yards, 44th in receptions.
39:17Just awful. That number will improve. The biggest thing for me was they were potentially in on Devontae Smith.
39:23They were potentially in on a wide receiver at 16 where they took Ty Simpson, and they didn't do anything.
39:29And so they still – obviously, then they were talking about maybe trading Devontae Adams if you believe the reports.
39:35They still have faith in him. And so the fact that it's Puka and Adams and Stafford and that group still together
39:42intact without anything to really crack it aside from a second-round or third-round tight end that they drafted, like, this is still one of their guys.
39:50And anytime you're one of Sean McVay's guys, that gives you some ability to be productive.
39:55Now, we've seen Cooper Cupp fall off. We saw Robert Woods fall off.
39:59We've seen guys when they get older, they don't necessarily produce at the same level.
40:04That's understandable. And as Dave said, I believe his birthday is December, so you're going to get the majority of the season with him.
40:11Yeah, Christmas Eve. Christmas Eve will be 34. So you're going to get the majority of him at 33, not 34.
40:18Oh, great. But still, at that cost, I'm perfectly fine with it.
40:22If he's still wide receiver 15 and people are chasing it because of the touchdowns, I'd be completely out.
40:28But I think in this spot, I'm okay with it.
40:31Okay. All right, we're going to take a break.
40:34We have three more players to talk about. Players we love.
40:37Jamie loves Zay Flowers this year. Dave loves Omari and Hampton.
40:40I'm going to play Devil's Advocate. Not loving that.
40:43So maybe we're talking about two completely different players.
40:46We'll be right back on FFT. Hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break.
40:52But not just any break. This is a refreshing break with Snapple.
40:56We all know about Snapple's iconic real facts. So let's take a minute to go over some of my faves.
41:02Snapple real fact, 1-9-8-3. The first player drafted to play pro football never played in the league.
41:07Snapple real fact, 1-1-1-9. The Grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs.
41:11Snapple real fact, 2-0-6-4. The first college football game broadcast on TV was on September 30th, 1939.
41:17Snapple real fact, 1-8-9-6. The tradition of playing football on Thanksgiving originated with college football in 1876.
41:22So grab a Snapple, take a second, and enjoy the moment.
41:25Because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day.
41:30Snapple, make your break more interesting. All right, now let's get back to the show.
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42:28Jamie loves Zay Flowers. Coming off an awesome year where he was wide receiver 12 per game with only five touchdowns in 17 games.
42:35Actually did have a rushing touchdown as well. All right.
42:38Why do you love Zay Flowers? Let me give you his ADP real quick.
42:43Zay Flowers is wide receiver 15, going 35th overall.
42:46I think it's a good spot for him. I mean, you look at this offense, this receiving core, another one, you know, similar to the Chiefs.
42:54You take Zay Flowers off the field, and it's another one that's just completely miserable.
42:58But we'll see what the two rookie receivers do.
43:01And obviously Rashad Bateman still has maybe something left to offer.
43:05But it's really just about, you know, building off of what he did last year.
43:09I know this is more of a Heath guy than my guy, but still very excited about him as well.
43:15You look at the games when Lamar Jackson was healthy from week nine on.
43:20Top 10 in receiving yards. Top 10 yards after catch.
43:23Top 10 yards per route run. Top 10 yards per catch.
43:26I think there's more to offer. It really comes down to can he catch more touchdowns.
43:31And that's hopefully going to be a Declan Doyle thing because the touchdowns have been capped at five.
43:37But I think we're going to see a little bit more of a more volume in the passing game.
43:43I think that's something probably that Lamar Jackson wanted.
43:46And I think that kind of is where the two heads butted in terms of Harbaugh and Lamar wanting to keep sort of things status quo.
43:54But I'm excited about Zay Flowers. I think taking him in late round three is worth it.
43:59Yeah, he's so good. I mean, that's it's tough to make a case against him because he's obviously one of the most talented receivers.
44:06But here we go. Speaking on behalf of my friend Beelzebub, it's devil's advocate on Zay Flowers.
44:12Number one, he's had 120 targets roughly two straight seasons with very, very different results.
44:16Number 36 per game two years ago and number 12 per game last year.
44:21Next up, lack of green zone and end zone targets.
44:24And there's kind of a reason why Zay Flowers has struggled.
44:27He doesn't get to score touchdowns. He doesn't get targeted where it counts.
44:31Catch rate regression. So this is the argument that Heath likes to make.
44:35That his catch rate in three seasons has been really, really good twice.
44:39And and six, OK, six, 71 percent, 64 percent, 73 percent.
44:43I think it might go down because you have to factor in the a dot here.
44:48And he had an a dot in between 11 and 12 yards.
44:52And looking at guys that have that kind of a dot, it's pretty rare to find a guy with a 73 percent catch rate.
44:59So I think if he keeps that a dot, I think the catch rate is going to go down.
45:05And fourth one is just not enough pass volume.
45:08I know Jamie just said that you think the Ravens are going to throw more and they probably will.
45:14And he keeps talking about that, that even last year they were low just from a Lamar Jackson standpoint.
45:20But there's only been one year in his career where the Ravens were not bottom five and pass attempts.
45:25And Jackson got hurt that year. So they're they're not going to throw in a lot.
45:30And it's still very hard in PPR to finish, you know, top 12 even on a team that's bottom five in passing in pass attempts.
45:38So those are my cases against Dave Flowers. It's nothing to do with him as a player.
45:44It's just like. I don't know that I don't know.
45:47He's going to have a 30 percent target share again.
45:50And I made my case. Dave, go ahead. He's not going to.
45:54And I do expect the Ravens to be a little less run reliant than they've been in the past.
45:59But I think they're going to use tight ends quite a bit.
46:03And they've added some bigger physical wide receivers in the draft.
46:07And I think that's that's by design. I think they want to be a bigger, tougher team.
46:12And Declan Doyle, we don't know how he's going to be as a play caller.
46:17His tendency has been to lean on tight ends.
46:19Or at least he's been around people who's leaned on tight ends.
46:23We saw that in Chicago last year. Denver and New Orleans before that when he was with Sean Payton.
46:29And I don't know how many games we're going to see Baltimore chasing points and trailing in.
46:34And that's usually when we see Zay Flowers at his best.
46:38It's very rare when we see Zay Flowers and Derrick Henry putting up big fantasy points in the same week.
46:44I think it's 10 games in the last two years when they both had 14 plus PPR.
46:49No, it's 10 with any running back. It's nine when it's just Derrick Henry.
46:54When 14 plus for both the running back in Baltimore and Zay Flowers as well.
46:58He's been close to seven targets per game each of the last three seasons.
47:03I don't know if he's necessarily going to get over.
47:06And if he is, it's not going to be by that much.
47:09And I just I think he's a good fantasy receiver and a great NFL receiver.
47:14But because the volume isn't going to go bonkers, I just I can't take him as a round three pick.
47:20I think there are too many other wide receivers that I would rather have in that range, especially in full PPR.
47:27It might be different if we're talking catches not counting.
47:30But because of that volume being a limiting factor is work inside the five being a limiting factor.
47:36I think there's other directions I'd go in. I'm nitpicking a little bit, but I think he's around four pick, not around three.
47:43Okay. Yeah, he's an interesting player. And we talked about him a lot, I think, last week as well.
47:49We can move on here. That's Zay Flowers. Let's go to the players that we love, player we love for Dave.
47:55Omarion Hampton. All right. He's a second round pick.
47:58He's right there with Devon Achan, Ken Walker. In fact, he's going ahead of Devon Achan as RB7.
48:04So Gentty is RB5. James Cook is RB6. And Omarion Hampton is RB7 in Fantasy Pros ADP.
48:09Why do you love Omarion Hampton? Before you answer, let me give you CBS ADP.
48:14He's RB123456789. RB9 going 15th overall. Let's call him an early second round pick.
48:18He's got the play caller that made Devon Achan a stud.
48:21He's got an offensive line that might be considered the best in the National Football League.
48:26Asterisk. They have to stay healthy. But as of now, they are healthy or expected to be healthy for the start of training camp.
48:34He's very capable of contributing in the passing game.
48:37He averaged three and a half targets per game in nine games last year.
48:41He had better efficiency as a rookie than a bunch of other veterans, including his avoided tackle rate.
48:4725.8%. Third best among qualifying running backs. Only Bison and Kenneth Walker III had better avoid tackle rates than Omarion Hampton last year.
48:54And it's a tough schedule, but it's not as tough as what the Raiders are going to have.
48:59I know a lot of people are going to compare Hampton to Gentry and where they go with a pick with one
49:06of those guys in early round two. But I think Hampton's the better pick.
49:10I'm not that worried about Keaton Mitchell and the posters around the Chargers front office saying that they want Keaton Mitchell or Kamani Vidal.
49:18I think Hampton's going to prove to be the best running back of that group.
49:23And I think he's going to earn a bunch of volume in McDaniel's exciting but slow-paced offense.
49:28And certainly in games where the Chargers have a lead, we're going to see Hampton have a bunch of opportunities to break
49:35off big runs and to score a bunch of touchdowns.
49:38I can see it happening last but not least the track record for McDaniels.
49:42And obviously the catching that running backs do plays a big part in this stat.
49:47But the last three years, running backs have had at least 15 PPR points per game in 15, 11, and 12 games when McDaniels has been calling plays.
49:56It's A-chan. That's an A-chan stat. But the play caller for Hampton now is the guy that made A-chan a stud.
50:02And I'm expecting that to continue on. Maybe not to the tune of five targets per game, but three and a half
50:09targets per game, which is where he was last year with a more passive play caller.
50:14Man, I could see that going up a little bit and he could get four targets per game and really come through
50:21and be a good pass-catching running back on top of everything else he does as the lead running back for a playoff contending Chargers team.
50:29Yeah, I've gone back and forth on Hampton because I see some warts, but I'm going to get your thoughts because here
50:35comes the devil's advocate on Omari and Hampton. Did he have one good game last year?
50:40He averaged three point. I should emphasize that a little bit differently.
50:44Did he have one good game last year? Only one?
50:47He averaged three point seven yards per carry last year if you remove the game against the Giants, who were arguably the worst run defense in football.
50:56Let's talk about his pedigree. Other first round pick running backs in the NFL draft.
51:00He was drafted 22nd overall. Here are some running backs in the last 10 years.
51:05Here are the running backs in the last 10 years who were drafted 20 to 32 in the NFL draft.
51:11Rashad Penny, Sonny Michel, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Elair, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne.
51:15Just worth noting that just because you're a first round pick, it does not mean you are going to be great.
51:22My next point, more competition than his peers? Question mark.
51:25So HN doesn't really have any competition. I think Gentry's going to destroy, you know, dominate carries in that backfield.
51:31Barkley's going to play almost every down. Derek Henry is not going to play in passing downs, but he's the guy.
51:37I'm hopeful for that for Hampton, but I do wonder because they started out last year splitting with Najee Harris.
51:44They ended last year splitting with Kamani Beidel, and I wonder what that's going to look like.
51:49And then finally, is Mike McDaniel overrated for running backs?
51:52Mike McDaniel might surprise you in five seasons with McDaniel as a head coach or a coordinator.
51:57His teams have been 15th, 22nd, 1st, 18th, and 8th in rushing yards.
52:0120th, 17th, 1st, 17th, and 13th in rushing touchdowns.
52:04So only two years better than 17th in touchdowns.
52:07They actually don't run that much. They don't run a lot of plays, typically, Mike McDaniel offenses.
52:12They are very efficient, though. His lead running backs almost always average at least 4.5 yards per carry.
52:18But he's also not opposed to a split, which we've seen with Mostert, which we've seen with Jeff Wilson.
52:24So some thoughts there. Jamie, your thoughts on Omari and Hampton?
52:27He's on the Chargers, so you probably love him.
52:30I do love him. I think, you know, getting – first off, he played four games with Joe Alt, no games with Rashawn Slater.
52:37So that's a big part of what to like about this scenario here for him.
52:42I do think we're going to get a split.
52:45You know, the wanted posters that Dave alluded to, you know, was Mike McDaniels in the free agent process saying he wanted Keaton Mitchell.
52:52So to what degree we see from Keaton Mitchell, I don't think it's going to be anything that should scare you off from Omari and Hampton.
53:00But the biggest, I think, attraction to him is kind of what we were just talking about with A-Chan, is the role in the passing game.
53:09Because Hampton's going to be their guy on obvious rushing downs.
53:12I don't think Kamani – to me, Kamani Vidal is – it's one of those backfields where Mitchell will be a potential
53:19flex option if they use him like I think a lot of people that are in the pro-Mitchell camp think, that he's going to be the pass catcher.
53:28But I think if Hampton misses time again, Vidal is the clear handcuff.
53:32Like he's the one that takes that role. I don't think Mitchell takes that role.
53:36So if you're looking at it like I want to handcuff Omari and Hampton, it's take Keaton Vidal with a late-round pick.
53:43But I don't think Vidal matters so much in tandem with Hampton.
53:47I don't think we're going to see three guys.
53:50Now, you referenced Mike McDaniel and what he's done.
53:52The last two years of Devon A-Chan's fantasy production have been ridiculous.
53:56And then you go to the early part of the Dolphins' tenure and it was an 18 touchdown season, 18 rushing touchdowns for Raheem Mostert.
54:04So we've seen two different versions of two different style of running backs that Mike McDaniel has gotten great fantasy production out of.
54:11And that's kind of the hope for Hampton. And so, yes, he did not look great at times last year.
54:17And other times he looked like, oh, okay, I can see why he's going to be explosive and potential and all those things.
54:24And I think right before the foot injury, you started to see that because Najee Harris had already gotten hurt.
54:31And it was the start of what could have been the breakout season for him and his rookie campaign.
54:37So I'm excited about him. I think there's going to be a lot to love.
54:41Now, again, you're comparing him to very good, in some cases, great running back situations.
54:46Like you said, Barkley, role in the passing game improves, offensive line improves.
54:50Easy to take him over Martin Hampton if you're guaranteed those things.
54:54Gentry, I think everybody's looking at, okay, he was the better prospect.
54:57And now Linderbaum, Colton Miller healthy, better coach, better quarterback play, like all those things pointing in his direction.
55:03He's the one I struggle with the most. We've had that conversation many times, Hampton versus Gentry.
55:09Walker, I think, is in a better spot than Hampton just because of the team that he's going to and the resume that he's bringing with him.
55:17And then you can factor in Derrick Henry and what he's still capable of doing.
55:22So all those guys that are going to be in that round two range, if you want to throw Chase Brown in
55:29there too, you can chop it up. You know, pros and cons for what Amar and Hampton does.
55:34But again, first round talent, great offense, at least, you know, going into the season, hopefully healthy offensive line.
55:40I think all those things make Amar and Hampton a very attractive pick in round two.
55:45Yeah, the struggle, I think, is the guys you're passing up, right?
55:49Okay, if we've got a talented running back on a team that has a healthier offensive line and a guy who's going
55:56to play on third down and a guy with an offensive coordinator that we think is going to be better, am I
56:03talking about Amar and Hampton or am I talking about Saquon Barkley?
56:06Talking about both of them, right? And why would I take Hampton over Barkley?
56:11It's certainly fair. It's just, you know, one guy's 29 coming off a, you know, I don't want to say miserable season,
56:17but, you know, clearly failed to live up to expectations based on what he did in 2024 for Barkley.
56:23Older offensive line with a lot of questions in terms of health after what we saw last year.
56:29And look, we like Sean Mannion and what he can do for this offense.
56:33I know what Mike Daniel can do. Hell yes.
56:36You know, so I'll lean toward the younger player and what I think is going to be a more explosive offense.
56:43But look, you certainly can make a case for it.
56:46There are people that are like, I'm out on Hampton.
56:49If I don't get him in round three, I'm not taking around two and I get it.
56:54You know, it's, it's looking at production, but those same people are also taking Ashton Gentian in round one.
57:00And I don't get that either. You know, I think they're both round two picks.
57:05I think they're almost, you know, again, very similar in terms of coming off inconsistent rookie campaigns, injury performance, all those things factor into it.
57:13But I just think there's a chance that we could see a huge leap for Hampton as well as a huge leap for Gentry.
57:20I don't know if we get that huge leap for Barkley back to what he was.
57:25Okay. Yeah. Hampton was a tough one for me to play devil's advocate on because there, I think, are a lot more positives than negatives.
57:33But let me just throw one more thing that I didn't have on the graphic.
57:37He, let me compare him to Isaiah Pacheco. Two years.
57:41Why? Please don't do that. Two years ago for Pacheco.
57:44He gets a broken leg in season, early in the season, has surgery, comes back and hasn't been the same player since.
57:51I don't think Hampton had surgery, but he did have a- I don't think he had a- Did he have a broken leg?
57:58He had a broken ankle. He had a broken foot, right?
58:01I think it was a broken ankle. And came back, wasn't really great.
58:05Yeah, he broke his ankle in week five. Does that factor at all in for you guys that he broke his ankle last year?
58:13He averaged almost the same amount of fantasy points per game in PPR when he came back from the injury as he did before the injury.
58:21I guess. By the way, every game that he had a lot of catches was either without Najee Harris or without Kamani
58:28Vidal or with one of them leaving early last year.
58:31Yeah, look, he's not A-chan. Don't expect those type of passing numbers.
58:34Don't expect those types of passing production. But, again, you're hoping that it's McDaniel allowing Hampton to be an above-average fantasy pass catcher.
58:42Forget about NFL pass catcher. Fantasy pass catcher. So, he may not do a lot of the things that maybe even Keaton Mitchell can do.
58:49But as long as he can hold up in pass protection, he'll be on the field for third downs.
58:55At least a good portion of the third downs.
58:58This is not the type of player you'd take off the field if he's doing everything right and if he's healthy.
59:05And so, I think Mitchell will be maybe some hurry-up offense situations.
59:08I think he could be a guy that could be a somewhat much lesser version but a somewhat of a version for
59:15what Justin Herbert had early in his career with Austin Eckler in those situations.
59:20Again, he's not going to do that but that type of player.
59:23Look, Mitchell's explosive. And Mike McDaniel likes explosive players.
59:26We've seen that. We've seen how the Dolphins have drafted the last couple of years.
59:31He obviously had a huge influence in that. So, I don't know if you're going to get the – remember when A-chan and Mostert were at their best?
59:39A-chan's rookie season? I don't think we're going to see that for those two guys.
59:44But I think there's a chance that Mitchell can surprise some people.
59:48I just think Omari and Hampton's their guy. Yeah, for sure, for sure.
59:52All right. McDaniels talked about easier completions for Herbert so he's not over-relying on big plays.
59:57So, the quick game is going to absolutely be a factor.
60:00That means throws – short throws. That'll help guys like Ladd McConkie.
60:04There's no doubt. But it's going to be – it's going to involve the running backs too.
60:09And Hampton's going to get a piece of that.
60:12And I think Mitchell will be like a part-time player, maybe 15 snaps a game.
60:17They'll average anywhere between like three and eight touches per game.
60:20All right. You're on the clock. Have to decide right now.
60:24Hampton or Chase Brown? Chase Brown. Hampton or Gentie?
60:26Hampton. Today at 11.02 a.m., it's Hampton. But by 11.22, it might be Gentie.
60:31I'm just about locked into Hampton over Gentie. Had a higher PPR average last year, better consistency rate, better play caller, better offensive line.
60:38And he doesn't play the Chargers twice a year like Gentie will.
60:42Hampton or Drake London? Hampton. I think I'm going Hampton.
60:45Let's just take a look at who they're playing in Week 18, by the way.
60:50I'm curious. Faces the Broncos. Hampton faces the Broncos in Week 18.
60:53So that's good. Nice. All right. Next one is Kenny Gainwell.
60:57Jamie has him as a sleeper. He's going around 100th overall.
61:00What's your sleeper case for Gainwell? Well, I mean, Bucky Irving right now, hopefully he's got healthy, but still dealing with this
61:07shoulder injury that's lingered into the offseason where he missed some time in minicamp.
61:12I think we see what Zach Robinson would like to do where he gave over 100 targets to Bijan Robinson.
61:18Now, obviously, Kenneth Gainwell is not Bijan Robinson, but this is an office coordinator that wants to get his running backs involved in the passing game.
61:26And while Bucky Irving can do that and certainly prove that first and second now will be something where he'll still get
61:33opportunities to play in the passing game, Gainwell showed last year that he could be one of the best pass catchers at the position with over 70 receptions.
61:41So I'm a little bit nervous about Irving staying healthy.
61:45I'm a little bit nervous about Irving being involved in the passing game.
61:49I think Gainwell proved also he could be better as a rusher after what he did in Pittsburgh last year as well,
61:55compared to maybe what he was early in his career.
61:59It's just an easy guy to take in PPR at this point because there's 50 catch potential.
62:04You look at Baker Mayfield. I know all of it wasn't with Mayfield, but Rashad White, three years in an offense in
62:11this team of 50-plus catches, one of those years was Mayfield in 2024.
62:15I just think that we're going to get those easy reception totals from Gainwell, and that makes him an easy pick to take at this spot.
62:23And especially if Irving misses time, then we're looking at probably a tandem between him and Sean Tucker, and it may just
62:30be Gainwell because we saw Gainwell what he did when he was the lead guy in Pittsburgh last season in a couple games that Jalen Warren missed.
62:38So for me, 100th overall is perfect for Kenneth Gainwell.
62:41Okay, well, it's hard for me to play devil's advocate if we have any concerns about Bucky Irving's availability, but it's easy
62:48for me to do it if Bucky Irving is full go in training camp.
62:52Here's why. Point number one on Kenneth Gainwell, not being a good sleeper, not a starter, and not a real handcuff, because what happens if Bucky gets hurt?
63:01Sean Tucker could easily mix in there. It might even lead the team in carries.
63:06It's not like a Blake Corum, Kyle Monongai situation, and those guys are going around Kenneth Gainwell where if the starter gets
63:13hurt, we've got an immediate starting running back role.
63:15Point number two, you mentioned Rashad White and the 50 catches in three or four seasons.
63:20Well, he was really bad last year with Bucky Irving healthy.
63:24Rashad White averaged about 6.2 PPR fantasy points per game, not even rosterable in 10 games with Bucky Irving in 2025.
63:30And if you look at the end of 2024, the last four games of 2024, including two playoff games, he had 10
63:37carries and 10 catches in four games, Rashad White.
63:40So that role of a reliable number two running back, it completely disappeared for the Bucs late in 2024 when they just
63:47said, Bucky Irving, you are our guy. And then I've already sort of made this point, but I think much better options
63:54at similar ADP to Gainwell, and that would be guys who have a chance to be true handcuffs like Kyle Monongai.
64:00J.K. Dobbins is a starter. Blake Corum, Rashad White maybe, Jonathan Brooks.
64:04These are guys that I think my point against Gainwell is that Sean Tucker still exists, and I don't know that Gainwell
64:11ever has the opportunity to do what he did last year than the one game where Jalen Warren missed, and Gainwell was amazing.
64:18So I actually don't really love his ADP if Bucky Irving is healthy.
64:22We don't know that. Right. Would you agree? So again, he's going around 100th overall.
64:27I think Irving comes into camp at 100%. We see Gainwell drop probably 10 spots.
64:31Then I'll be in on Gainwell. Yeah? Yeah. That's where I have him ranked right now.
64:36It's not a completely different situation, but it's pretty different from where he was last year, where he had an opportunity to catch passes.
64:44Aaron Rodgers was getting the ball out fast. Aaron Rodgers hated most of his receiving core, so he was throwing it to Kenny Gainwell.
64:51Baker Mayfield doesn't have quite the same level of running back target share that Rodgers has had in his elder years, but
64:58he certainly has a better receiving core than what Rodgers dealt with last year.
65:02So I think five targets per game, that's where Gainwell was.
65:06I think that's out the window. Rashad White's season high for targets per game was 4.1 in Tampa, and I think that's
65:13when he was a full-time player and not a part-time player.
65:16Gainwell's going to be a part-time player. You could talk me into Gainwell having some good contingency value in the event that
65:23Bucky isn't ready to start the season or gets hurt in season, because I'm not sure how much work Sean Tucker will take away.
65:30Tucker's been around a couple years. I really liked him coming out of college, so I followed him.
65:36He's never really gotten a huge opportunity other than at the goal line.
65:40But in a PPR league, if you're talking about a running back that you might be able to get 10 points per
65:47game from, that's a good role to have for fantasy, but that's somebody that I'm taking after pick 100.
65:53There are other receivers, much less running backs, that I'd rather shoot the dart at than Kenneth Gainwell, thinking that he's kind
66:00of a low upside player and more of just like a safety net in case I have a problem with my running
66:07backs and I need to put somebody into that spot or a flex in case of emergency on a Sunday morning.
66:13Yeah. I'm not sure they really love Sean Tucker that much.
66:17You know, if you look at the last two years when the starters gotten hurt, in 2024 it was one game where actually Rashad White got hurt.
66:25And while the carries I think were exactly the same between Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, a lot of that for Tucker
66:32was the last drive of the game for them in a 21-point win or something like that.
66:37It was garbage time. And then last year, Rashad White or Bucky Irving missed weeks 5 through 12.
66:43In the first three games, Rashad White had 41 carries and Sean Tucker had 10.
66:47White just really struggled. And then Tucker got more carries than White.
66:51But each of the two times where the starters gotten hurt, it almost feels like Tucker was the backup plan to the backup plan.
66:59Yeah. You know what I, if that makes sense.
67:01So. Right. Yeah. We all thought, okay, he's about to take off when he had that huge game.
67:07It was against New Orleans, right? Yeah. They both, Bucky and he.
67:11Right. It was Bucky who took off. Yeah, right.
67:13Bucky took off, but they both were great. Yeah.
67:16Yeah. Okay. There's a pretty good track record though of, how many receptions do you think for?
67:22For Gainwell? Bucky's healthy all season? Bucky's healthy all season.
67:2540. Yeah, I'd go higher than that, but I don't think he'd get many carries if Bucky stays healthy.
67:31So I'm just eyeballing it if you want to get the total number.
67:35There's probably about 30 running backs the last three seasons with at least 50 catches.
67:39Three guys under 11 PPR points per game of those 30.
67:43Only three. Right. Everybody else has been 11 PPR points or more.
67:46Sure. But what happens if he's only getting like two carries a game or four carries a game?
67:52Well, I'd be very surprised if he's only getting two to four carries a game.
67:57Right. But I mean, if Bucky is Bucky, that's what's going to happen.
68:01I mean, even if Bucky is Bucky, we've seen Bucky in a part-time role most of his career.
68:06Here's... Except when he's been Bucky. So Pittsburgh had 39 running back targets on third down last year.
68:12Tampa Bay had 14. However, that's a low number for Tampa Bay.
68:16They've had 25, 22, and 14 in the last three years in the Baker Mayfield era.
68:21That's running back targets on third down. But it's still nowhere near Pittsburgh.
68:25And Pittsburgh's basically two seasons worth of Tampa Bay third down running back targets.
68:29So then the question is, how many targets does he get on first and second down?
68:34Probably not that many. I mean, maybe two-minute drill.
68:37I'm not even sure if he's playing on first and second down.
68:41Yeah, probably none if Bucky's healthy. He's probably playing two-minute drill would be my guess.
68:45For sure. And you also have... I mean, look, we are very excited about Emeka Abuka.
68:50And there's reasons to be optimistic about Jalen McMillan and Ted Hurst.
68:54This is a very different receiving core than Baker Mayfield's been used to.
68:58Yeah. And a very different receiving core than what Gainwell was working with in Pittsburgh.
69:03All right. Good stuff. Dave, finish the show with what was the most fun thing you did in Las Vegas?
69:09I don't know if I can say. What's the most fun thing you can say?
69:14I don't know. No. I invented a casino Olympics game that I played with my buddy who I've known for 40 years.
69:20And we gambled in 11 different casinos in like four hours.
69:24And along the way, we had a breakfast burrito wrapped in bacon.
69:28And we split a very small stuffed pizza from Giordano's.
69:31So we got our steps in, got a lot of good exercise, and had some really good food.
69:36And I won the Olympics. Way to go. It's the first time I can ever say that I won an Olympic event.
69:43How did you get Giordano's? They have that in Vegas?
69:46They have a Giordano's on the strip. How does it compare to Chicago Giordano's?
69:51Well, I mean, like I had a pre-made personal stuffed sausage.
69:54It wasn't that bad compared to Chicago. Okay. Nice.
69:57The bacon wrap burrito was better. Dave, thank you very much.
70:00It's good to have you back. It's good to be back.
70:04Jamie? Yeah, man. It's football season. Click the number.
70:07Come on. Just click the number. I don't know where the text is.
70:11I would have done it, but I can't find the text.
70:14Who was on the text? You, me, and Thomas.
70:17And James. Jamie, Dan, and Thomas. Okay. Okay. Wait.
70:20I found the number. Did I find the number?
70:22No. I don't know where it is. I'm just so lost here.
70:26Here, I'm going to send you a text message with the same chain, and then you just click the number.
70:32There you go. Ready? It's the wrong chain. Okay.
70:35Don't read what I send you on the air.
70:38What am I supposed to do with this phone number?
70:41Just roll up. Just tap it. It's Nando. You know?
70:44I'm just going to leave you with this. Nando said something so funny the other day, and I said, you know I
70:51have to tell Jamie you said this. And he said, no, you can't tell Jamie.
70:56So, have a great day, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
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