PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
2026 Fantasy Football Breakout QBs | 5 Quarterbacks Poised for a BIG Jump (08/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
30 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 12, 2026
Published
Wed, August 12, 2026
8
Player insights
6
Players mentioned
Topics
Caleb WilliamsTrevor LawrenceBrock PurdyDak PrescottJayden DanielsMalik Willis
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Purdy
PositiveProjection25:19
Brock Purdy is highlighted as having QB1 upside despite being drafted as QB8. The source notes that Purdy has been a top-11 per-game quarterback in each of his three seasons and was the QB1 on a per-game basis through Week 17 last year. His career efficiency stats (1st in YPA, 1st in success rate) suggest he could reach 4,900+ yards and 36 TDs if volume remains consistent.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
PositiveBreakout22:10
Dave identifies Williams as a breakout candidate, highlighting his improved explosiveness after trimming weight and his ability to create big plays when the pocket breaks down. The offense is bolstered by a strong offensive line and creative play-calling from Ben Johnson, with a concentrated target share among playmakers like Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. Williams demonstrated a safe floor last year with 11 games of 20+ fantasy points.
Insight pagePositiveBreakout22:23
The source supports a breakout call for Caleb Williams, noting that he possesses the necessary toolset and skills to succeed.
Insight pageDak Prescott
PositiveValue20:18
The source argues Dak Prescott is undervalued and should be in the same tier as other top quarterbacks due to his rushing prowess.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveBreakout23:48
Jaden Daniels is considered the best breakout candidate at quarterback. From weeks 8-17 of his rookie season, he averaged 27.3 fantasy points per game (using 6-point passing TD scoring). The source expects his passing numbers to improve with better receiving options like Stefon Diggs and Chigoziem Okonkwo, and notes his elite rushing floor of 7.5 fantasy points per game.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveValue10:12
Zacharisen identifies Willis as a top value and dart throw due to his elite rushing floor, noting that Willis averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game via his legs during his three-game stint in Green Bay. Despite concerns about the Miami pass-catching corps, Zacharisen argues that Willis's rushing production mirrors the path Justin Fields took to fantasy relevance, making him a strong asset even if his passing development remains volatile.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveValue20:32
The source identifies Trevor Lawrence as the best value among a tier of quarterbacks including Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, and Jackson Dart because he is being drafted last. The Jaguars offense is noted for being the third-best team in touchdowns per game after their bye week.
Insight pagePositiveValue28:43
Zacharisen views Lawrence as the best value among the mid-tier quarterbacks because he is currently being drafted last among the group of Herbert, Williams, and Dart. Lawrence has already demonstrated top-tier fantasy production, finishing as the QB4 overall and QB6 per game last season, and the Jaguars showed significant offensive improvement in the second half of the year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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1:59What a play! Can you believe it? It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
2:03Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
2:06He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
2:11Breakouts Bonanza on Wednesday, August 12th. We've got four shows for you today, breakouts at each position.
2:16Maybe we'll do defensive ends and cornerbacks later tonight or something like that.
2:20Sweet! Yeah. Yes. Why don't we start with a better position like quarterback?
2:24Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, everybody. Adam, Dave, and Heath here.
2:28And we have an awesome guest from Late Round Fantasy Football, JJ Zacharisen.
2:32Maybe your Twitter handle, at LateRoundQB, maybe change it today to at BreakoutQB.
2:36Yeah, maybe. Maybe we'll do that. And after, you know, 14 years of this handle, just for this show, I'll switch it over to BreakoutQB.
2:43Yeah, that probably won't have any negative effects for you or anything like that.
2:47But follow JJ. He's a terrific follow, terrific analyst, and frequent guest on Heath's show, or at least a semi-regular guest on Heath's show.
2:55Occasional guest. Occasional guest. And we're happy to have him here.
2:58I'm going to maybe at some point fly through some news and notes.
3:02There's some things you need to know, but let's get right to our breakout quarterbacks.
3:07And so I'm going to let JJ start. And you guys have a somewhat different approach.
3:12Like Dave and Heath have kind of earlier, early to mid-round guys.
3:15And JJ's going with some Late Ground guys. And at Late Round QB, why not?
3:20Shocker. Yeah. So who do you want to talk about today as breakout quarterbacks?
3:24Let's go with Tyler Shuck to start things and to kick things off.
3:28You know, when I've done analysis on career years that you sort of want to invest in in fantasy football, it's usually
3:35year two guys that do give you the lowest floor versus ADP and ADP expectation.
3:39But they also give you the highest ceiling versus ADP and ADP expectation.
3:43I think no better example than what we saw last year where you get, you know, Caleb had a great year.
3:50And Drake May obviously had the true breakout. And then JJ McCarthy did what he did, right?
3:55So you get the floor from these year two guys, but also the ceiling.
3:59And I am banking on more of the ceiling outcome for Tyler Shuck, who, you know, for a rookie last year, really
4:06did not perform all that poorly, especially within the context of that class.
4:10And, you know, you match him up against Cam Ward.
4:13I would take Tyler Shuck's rookie season over Cam, excuse me, over Cam Ward and his rookie season pretty much all day.
4:20You know, he averaged 19.6 points per game over his final six games.
4:24The rushing touchdowns there definitely helped him. But he also showed us that he does bring some of that extra juice with his legs.
4:31You know, in total, 15.8 points per game as a rookie, which is not a great fantasy stat line.
4:37But for rookie quarterbacks, we generally don't see very, very strong performances.
4:40And really, I just look at the system here and the ecosystem that they've built around Tyler Shuck.
4:46And that's what gets me very excited. Kellen Moore is obviously a fast-paced coach, fast-paced coordinator in the way that he coaches his offenses.
4:53He was an offensive coordinator for six years. Every single team that he coordinated was top 10 in plays per game.
5:00Last year, New Orleans in an inefficient offense for the most part, you know, until Shuck kind of took over.
5:06They were still 11th in plays run per game.
5:08And then they add Jordan Tyson to the mix, who I think could be a star in the league.
5:14You know, I have the ZAP model, which is my prospect model.
5:18And Jordan Tyson graded out as the best wide receiver in this class and really one of the better wide receivers that
5:25we've seen over the last decade or so. And I really love the pairing with Chris Alave, where Alave's more natural position
5:31is to be able to get downfield and be that down-the-field threat.
5:35You know, when they got rid of Shahid last year, he was kind of forced to be a shallower, more intermediate player.
5:42But I think that they want to ideally use him more down the field.
5:46And Jordan Tyson can be that shallower, more intermediate player.
5:49Really good against zone. Alave, very good against man.
5:52You get an indoor environment for the Saints team.
5:54I think the offensive line should be pretty decent for the Saints as well.
5:59So they're just putting Tyler Shuck in a very, very favorable situation.
6:02And I think this could be a really, really strong year for him.
6:06Yeah, you're talking about Tyler Shuck now, who's QB 20, I think, in ADP on Fantasy Pros.
6:12The other guy you're going to talk about is Malik Willis, who's QB 21.
6:16It just underscores how deep the position is. When you talk about these guys as breakouts, how does that translate to someone drafting in a 12-team-1 quarterback league?
6:24Are you saying put these guys on your bench?
6:27Are you saying these guys are good enough to just be your starters?
6:31What's the actionable advice? Because I think it's really relevant for Superflex, right?
6:35Like, definitely, you guys are going to want to use these guys.
6:39So what's the actionable advice when it comes to Shuck and Willis?
6:42And obviously, I want you to talk about Willis as well.
6:46But for 12-team-1 quarterback leagues? Yeah, so, I mean, look, I think that you have to read your league and read the
6:52room and understand what your waiver wire might look like.
6:55Because there's going to be plenty of leagues out there where Tyler Shuck's not even drafted, right?
7:01Like, where you don't have to be that aggressive.
7:03But if you're in a deeper format, I think it's fine to draft multiple quarterbacks.
7:08You know, Malik Willis, who I'll talk about. But, like, if you want to go after a Shuck or a Willis and
7:15you feel more comfortable pairing them with a higher floor with, like, a decent ceiling option, like a Bo Nix or something.
7:21Or a Brock Purdy or whomever, you know, I think that's totally fine and reasonable to do.
7:27Because the goal here is to understand that in a lot of leagues, your fallback plan is streaming the position.
7:33And I've been tracking streaming picks for the last decade.
7:36And you can get low-end QB1, mid-range QB1 production via streaming just based on looking at matchups and understanding where your league
7:42is at with what that waiver wire pool looks like.
7:45So, you know, it depends on where your league is at.
7:49Would I go into the season feeling uber confident that Tyler Shuck is my QB1 and I can't find anyone off the waiver wire?
7:56No. I think that you've got a plan for that.
7:59But I do think, you know, for all intents and purposes, like, he's a player that I would not be surprised if
8:06he breaks out in fantasy this year. I will say, like, just to maybe add a little bit of a hot take
8:13to this, not intentionally, in my projections. And I've got Shuck at QB14, so I absolutely love him at cost.
8:19I do think you can draft him to start for you.
8:22I would draft another quarterback, too. Probably someone like Malik Willis that has some upside.
8:27But I have Shuck projected for more points per game this year than Stafford, than Knicks, than Mayfield, than Mahomes.
8:33I've got him within a half a point of Lawrence, Herbert, Dart, and Caleb.
8:37I think he could add – there's no reason to think he can't be a top-12 quarterback.
8:42It's just, for me, how much of an efficiency gain does he get from Jordan Tyson?
8:47And does the red zone stuff, which often plagues rookie quarterbacks, does that stuff get figured out in year two?
8:53If it does, he could be a top-10 guy.
8:56They also didn't have much of a run game when he was starting, so he had to carry quite a bit of the load.
9:03And he also ran himself. JJ talked about that.
9:06And not that Travis HN is suddenly going to come in and just be an amazing running back.
9:11We know who he is. He's more of a compiler than an efficiency stud.
9:16But he's an improvement for them. And I think he's there to give them and compel them to run the football more
9:22than maybe they did last year when Shuck was a rookie.
9:26To his credit – and this is just another point.
9:29This is just another reason to draft him. Week one at Detroit, week three versus Las Vegas, week four versus Atlanta.
9:35Week two is at Baltimore. I don't know if I really want to start Shuck that week.
9:40But the other three games, I'm on board. And I think that you could look at Shuck and say, okay, I've fallen
9:47into a position in my draft where I need a quarterback who might give me something to start the season.
9:53I'm loaded at every other spot. You can look at Tyler Shuck and have him as a potential starter just to begin the year.
10:01And obviously, he's a stud as your QB2 and super flex.
10:04So Malik Willis is QB21 in Fantasy Pro's average draft position.
10:07And who do you like better, Shuck or Willis, JJ?
10:10I like Shuck more, especially from a median outcome standpoint.
10:13But look, Malik Willis, if you're in a single quarterback league, my question is why would you not just throw that dart at Malik Willis?
10:21I mean, we saw what he did in Green Bay in his three starts, 58 rushing yards per game, a rushing touchdown per game.
10:28That's 11.8 fantasy points per game with his legs.
10:31If you look back to 2011, there's been 25 quarterback seasons where the quarterback had seven or more points per game with
10:38their legs via rushing while throwing the ball 300 or more times.
10:41So they were the starter, but they were getting a lot of points via rushing.
10:46Of those 25 seasons, only three of them ranked outside the top 10 and points per game at the quarterback position.
10:52None of them ranked outside the top 20. And so really, I'm looking at this as and I've said this before and
10:59people sort of get a you know, they react negatively to it.
11:03But I think that Malik Willis, you're looking at a situation where in the past we've drafted Justin Fields confidently and fine
11:10as like a high end QB2 or low end QB1 at times.
11:13And we were doing that because when he's starting, he has been a usable fantasy asset despite the inaccuracies and how he's
11:20performed as a passer and a thrower of the ball.
11:23And with Malik Willis, you're getting that production on the ground.
11:26You're getting that floor production. I think he could be even more prolific as a rusher than what we saw from someone like Justin Fields.
11:34But then on top of that, you're just saying, look, we don't know what Malik Willis is as a passer yet.
11:40We just don't. There's not a big enough sample size to really look at and say, oh, I definitively know that he's
11:47going to be great or he's not going to be great.
11:50Now, I don't remember ever saying I've been doing this for a while now.
11:55I don't remember ever seeing a wide receiver room or a pass catching room as bad as Miami's is right now going into the season.
12:02And that's a huge, huge problem and potential problem.
12:05I get it. But at the same time, I think that you just have to lean into the volatility of him as
12:12a passer, knowing that the baseline is going to be there for him as a rusher.
12:17And what if he's just a good thrower and we just didn't know that yet?
12:21Right. Then all of a sudden there's a very, very real path to him being a top 10 fantasy asset because I think the rushing will be there.
12:30So to me, he's the easiest like, you know, value or dart throw on the board in fantasy this year.
12:36I think it's fine to pair him with another quarterback, again, going to what we just talked about.
12:41But just given the rushing production, he should be a strong fantasy asset.
12:45Yeah. And I'll make you feel even better because, you know, you can't remember a wide receiver room like this or pass catch room.
12:53But Justin Fields himself and I agree with you, but just Justin Fields himself in 2022, he was the number seven quarterback
12:59per game on a three and 14 Bears team whose leading receiver was Cole Komet with 544 yards.
13:05And Darnell Mooney played 12 games and he had 493 yards.
13:08And, you know, Justin Fields rushed for like well over a thousand yards that year, I think, or he was on pace for that or something.
13:16I don't know if Willis will get that. But, yeah, these mobile quarterbacks can overcome that in ways that the pocket passers might not be able to.
13:24All right. So that's Malik Willis and Tyler Shuck.
13:27We'll go a little more high end here with Dave.
13:30All right. Caleb Williams is your breakout. He's currently being drafted as QB 8 and he is going about 80th overall.
13:37So can he be better than that for Caleb Williams?
13:40Yes, he can be. I'm not ranking it like he's going to be.
13:44I think it's a step too far, especially with all the other quarterbacks that are out there who are established and have
13:50been in the league for plenty of years. Plus, Jayden Daniels and his rushing upside to put Caleb higher than what ADP says.
13:57But I love what I've heard out of Chicago this offseason about how he's trimmed his weight.
14:02He's running around without as much weight on him.
14:05Obviously, that makes him a little bit more explosive.
14:08We know that he's very much feast or famine when a play breaks down.
14:12But that's part of who he is. He's the ice man and he's able to put big plays on film when things don't go according to plan.
14:20And when things do go according to plan, he's fine.
14:24There is a little bit of an accuracy issue, but he'll run a little bit.
14:28I love Colston Loveland. I love Luther Burden. I'm expecting Luther Burden to play the majority of the season, if not all 17 games.
14:35I actually think it's a benefit to this offense with all the pass catches that they have that DJ Moore is out.
14:42So everything's concentrated a little bit more on their explosive guys.
14:46So Doonsay is certainly in that mix too, but obviously Loveland, Luther Burden, the running backs out of the backfield.
14:52Offensive line is one of the better units in the league.
14:55And obviously, to me, the biggest selling point of all is Ben Johnson is the play caller, the play designer, a guy who's very clever and creative.
15:03And I think Caleb Williams can take a nice step forward from the almost 22 fantasy points per game that he had last year.
15:11So for the panel here, here's my question. We look at quarterback ADP in CBS leagues, right?
15:16Josh Allen is in his own tier. Lamar Jackson is basically in his own tier going 41st.
15:21Josh Allen round two, Lamar Jackson round four. Drake May, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels.
15:25Dak Press got ahead of Jalen Hurts. I don't know if it's surprising.
15:29It's a little maybe to me, whatever, but they're pretty similar.
15:32So you've got seven quarterbacks, Allen, Jackson, May, Burrow, Daniels, Prescott, Hurts.
15:36You do have Justin Herbert going as QB8 on CBS, but Caleb Williams basically tied with him.
15:41When you get past the top seven, is there anyone out of Herbert, Caleb, Dart, Lawrence?
15:46I'll keep going. Purdy, Stafford, Goff, whatever it may be.
15:49Is there anyone that stands out that should definitively be taken a round or two ahead of the rest of the guys?
15:56Or do you say this is such a big tier, Heath, that I like Caleb Williams, but I don't know if I like him better than Trevor Lawrence.
16:05I don't know if I like him better than Jared Goff or Brock Purdy.
16:09And I'm just going to skip him if I have to take him in round seven or eight.
16:14I'm going to try to make the case in just a minute or two that one of these guys is not like the other.
16:22And so I don't know if you want me to do that now or if you want me to do it when I'm doing my breakout quarterbacks.
16:30But I think the biggest problem for me is that Caleb is taken a round or two ahead of my favorite guys in this tier.
16:37And so I just never draft Caleb. Not because I don't think the upside's there.
16:42I think it is. I just think like Dave talked about how great he is or can be when a play breaks down.
16:49And a lot of times the play breaks down because of him.
16:53And I just don't, I don't trust him quite as much.
16:56He does have big upside. I think there's somebody else that also has enormous upside that is my, one of my two breakout picks.
17:03Doesn't everyone though? I mean, doesn't like. Right. You can make the case for almost anyone that's being, that has a top 10 ADP.
17:11I mean, maybe top 15 ADP. You know, it's.
17:13I think it depends on whether you're talking about theoretical or demonstrated.
17:17But yes, you could make the case for the next six quarterbacks to have top five upside for sure.
17:23That's fair too, because we haven't seen Caleb Williams have that like stretch of breakout games like we have with Trevor Lawrence.
17:30And that's why I hesitated to put Trevor Lawrence on the breakout list because I kind of feel like he broke out last year.
17:37And there is a part of me that thinks he can pick up where he left off.
17:42I'm a big fan of Trevor Lawrence, but that's someone who's demonstrated it.
17:46I think he's guy is someone who's demonstrated it.
17:49And we don't have that quite yet with Caleb.
17:52What we do have with Caleb is, is a safe floor.
17:55He had 11 games with at least 20 fantasy points.
17:58That's six point in the regular season, eight games with 23 plus it's building on that.
18:03It's, it's looking at Caleb and saying, all right, he was good last year.
18:07Can he, can he take that step? Like Trevor Lawrence did just using Lawrence as an example to be even better in his third year.
18:15And my, my hunch is that he will be.
18:17Okay. Yeah. It's a, it's an exciting group of, of quarterbacks.
18:21We'll get JJ's take on this in a second.
18:24Let's take a break here. So we'll talk about this tier and maybe like who's most likely to break out Jackson Dart.
18:30We haven't mentioned him yet. Second year quarterback who was awesome last year, Trevor Lawrence.
18:35Yeah. I mean, Trevor Lawrence had a really good year.
18:38Can he do even better? Let's see. What did he finish as last year?
18:42Like QB five or something. I don't know what I'll tell you in a second.
18:47We'll be right back on fantasy football today. He would, why can't I find this?
18:51He was QB. He was QB four overall QB six per game.
18:55There you go, Trevor Lawrence. So hard to see him doing better than that, but we'll be right back with more.
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20:06That's stitchfix.com slash football. So JJ, what's your take on that whole group of quarterbacks from Caleb Williams on down to however,
20:13however long you think that tier is? Yeah. I mean, to me, I'm looking at that list.
20:18I'm like, why is Dak Prescott going as, you know, I feel like he should be in the same tier as these guys.
20:25Just, just given the rushing prowess. But yeah, I mean, look, I have them in a, in a tier, if I'm being
20:32honest, you know, the, the, I've dart in there, Justin Herbert, Caleb and Trevor Lawrence.
20:37I think that if I were to call one out as like the best value or whatever, I would just call out Lawrence simply because he's going last.
20:45But yeah, I mean, each of them are bringing something via rushing, you know, to their, to their profile.
20:51And you can see the upside case for, for each of them.
20:55You know, the, the, the Jags are very intriguing because, you know, like we were saying after their buy last week, they
21:01were the third best team in football and touchdowns per game.
21:05I mean, they were, they were cruising with, with the offense going through Parker Washington.
21:09So I'm probably most intrigued by, by T law there, but I can make the case for any of those guys.
21:16And I think Jackson dart, um, I've, you know, it's, it's kind of interesting because it feels like the, like, I'm kind
21:22of surprised the market is as in on them as on him as they are, but I think it's sharp.
21:28Like, I think it's the right move to make just given what I talked about earlier with year two quarterbacks and the volatility there.
21:36And realistically at quarterback, you should be just shooting for the moon.
21:39And you could very easily make the argument that there are, are very few quarterbacks with as high of a ceiling.
21:46If things really go the, the, the perfect way, you know, 90th percentile type outcome for a player like Jackson dart, very
21:53few quarterbacks who have a higher fantasy ceiling than, than dart does.
21:56If things go in the right direction, I have some questions about what the coaching is going to look like, you know,
22:03how much rushing juice he's going to bring just given what happened last year.
22:07But to me, you know, in the end, a player like that, it's kind of hard to just take away that element
22:14to his game because it's just a part of them.
22:17So, uh, and obviously Malik neighbors seems healthier too.
22:20So I think they all belong where they're being drafted.
22:23Um, so I, you know, I'm not going to hate on, on a, you know, a Caleb Williams breakout call because obviously
22:29he has the tool set and then the skills to be able to do it.
22:34Uh, yeah, I want to maybe, maybe at the end, we'll talk about dart.
22:38I want to make sure we have time for Heath's breakouts, two players that he wants to talk about, but I feel like maybe it's my fault.
22:47Maybe we've, the vibe that I've gotten from our show has been a little negative on Jackson dart.
22:52And honestly, the vibe and training camp right now has been a little negative on the giants offense in general, but he
22:59was so good last year without Malik neighbors, without Isaiah likely, which probably maybe I should be a little bit more optimistic.
23:05Yeah. Yeah. I just, I think the hardest thing for me with dart was it didn't feel like they were actually playing NFL football during that great stretch.
23:14And I just, it didn't seem replicable and I don't trust Matt Nagy to bring any sort of creative influence to the offensive game plan.
23:2238% of his fantasy points came from rushing, including nine rushing touchdowns.
23:25I, that part, especially, I don't think is repeatable.
23:28Nine rushing touchdowns in what, in what 12 starts.
23:31Do you, do you want me to speed through my breakout?
23:34So you can have some more Jackson dart time.
23:37You've got five minutes. Go ahead. I've got, I don't need five minutes.
23:41The first one is the obvious one, but it's, I feel like on a breakout show, it's important for it to be
23:48said that Jaden Daniels is in my opinion, the best breakout candidate at quarterback this year.
23:52You look at from week eight through 17 of his rookie season.
23:56And I, we should have prepared JJ. Like when we talk about fantasy points per game at CBS, it's six points per pass touchdown.
24:03So all of our numbers are going to sound insane compared to what everybody else does.
24:08But from week through eight through 17, he averaged 27.3 fantasy points per game.
24:13And I think it's important to contextualize that even further.
24:1650% of his passes in that stretch went to 34 year old Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, or De'Ami Brown.
24:22He now has Tefond Diggs, Chigo Conquo, which I'd listen.
24:25I don't want to poo poo Zach Ertz too much.
24:28He was really good at getting to a spot, five yards downfield, catching the ball and falling down.
24:34Chig might do something after he catches the ball.
24:36And then Antonio Williams, who I'm also very excited about.
24:39I think the passing numbers could be even better than they were during that stretch.
24:44In his career, he's played 20 games with an 80% snap share.
24:48He's averaged 9.3 rushes per game and 5.7 yards per carry with a 4% rush touchdown rate.
24:53Those types of numbers are 7.5 fantasy points per game just from running.
24:57Now, maybe he runs just a little bit less to try to stay healthy, but he should be one of the best rushing quarterbacks in football.
25:05I love the combination of Terry McLaurin and Stefan Diggs.
25:08I think they complement each other really well. I think the tertiary options are just a little bit better than what he's had in the past as well.
25:16There should be 0% surprise if Jaden Daniels is the number one quarterback in fantasy this season.
25:21Just a quick follow-up. Did you downgrade him at all with the Laramie Tunsil news being out for most of the season?
25:28I don't like that. I think what I did was I added somewhere between 5 and 10 sacks.
25:34And so I took away a few pass attempts.
25:36And I think it could possibly hurt the passing efficiency as well.
25:40This is one of the kind of mysterious offenses in the NFL where I think from the way they're talking, it could
25:47be really good and innovative and positive for Jaden Daniels.
25:50But it's certainly not a guarantee. And that's why he's being drafted usually as QB 4 or 5 at the end of
25:57round 5 and not where his upside would suggest.
25:59And the other guy is Brock Purdy. And he's been a top 11 quarterback per game in each of the last three seasons.
26:06And I think he's been top six per game in two of those three seasons.
26:11I brought it up before the show started. I think he might have the worst schedule of any quarterback.
26:17He plays a lot of very difficult teams and he plays a lot of absolute cupcakes.
26:22And I think like the open to his schedule is a perfect example of that.
26:26He has, I believe, the Rams and the Broncos in the first four weeks.
26:30And he also has the Dolphins and some NFC South team.
26:34The Raiders, I think. Oh, the Raiders. Even worse.
26:37So it's a very uneven schedule. But what I wanted to highlight with Purdy, because I think I get accused sometimes of
26:43my rankings maybe being too close to the median projection and having Brock Purdy at QB 8, honestly, knocking on the door
26:50of QB 7 is maybe a symptom of that.
26:53But I don't think people realize how much I have nerfed Brock Purdy's career efficiency and the pass ratio from the 49ers
26:59last year to get him to QB 8. They threw 574 passes last year.
27:04Brock Purdy, for his career, there's been 1,000 quarterbacks that have thrown, or 30 quarterbacks have thrown at least 1,000 passes since Purdy was drafted.
27:11He's 1st in yards per attempt at 8.6. 1st in success rate.
27:152nd in touchdown rate at 6.2%. 4th in fantasy points per game over that stretch, by the way.
27:20This is going to sound insane. But if the 49ers throw 574 passes this year, and Brock Purdy averages 8.6 yards per
27:27attempt with a 6.2% touchdown rate, he's going to be QB 1.
27:31That's 4,938 yards passing and 36 passing touchdowns. And oh yeah, over the last two years, his 17-game pace is 332 yards rushing and 6 rushing touchdowns.
27:39Because Brock Purdy, it gets kind of classified with Jared Goff, I think, and I have done this too, because they are
27:46the two guys that are just, I think everybody knows they're going to beat ADP, but nobody wants to draft him as high as they probably should.
27:54The difference is, Brock Purdy's not Jared Goff. Brock Purdy has QB 1 upside, and the way we really know that is
28:01because through Week 17 last year, Brock Purdy was QB 1 on a per-game basis.
28:05Oh wow. Oh, and the show here, but I made the point last night on our live stream.
28:11You had a point last year where Mac Jones was throwing to Jawan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, and I think Jennings may have missed some of that time.
28:19You had like Demarcus Robinson in there. And the first four games of that stretch, Mac Jones threw for 279 or more yards in all four games.
28:28So schedule, whatever, like all the things you could point out against the 49ers, they just always get the job done.
28:34So JJ, thank you very much for coming on and for the great insight.
28:38Tell us how we can follow you and hear you and what to know.
28:43Yeah, you can find me on Twitter and on X at BreakoutQB.
28:46No, at LateRoundQB. You can find all my work over on LateRound.com.
28:50Yes, check it out. Yes, this is a, for those of you in the chat, this is a short episode because we're doing four of them today.
28:58Tight ends are coming up next with me, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
29:02We'll have Chris Harris on later to talk about wide receivers.
29:05Yeah, he's receivers. And Jake Seeley to talk about running backs.
29:08We'll talk to you later on Fantasy Football today.
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