PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
SHOCKING Bold Predictions for 2026 Fantasy Football! (07/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
49 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 1, 2026
Published
Wed, July 1, 2026
4
Player insights
3
Players mentioned
Topics
Sam DarnoldA.J. BrownDrake Maye
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveRole0:47
AJ Brown is joining Sam Darnold's offense, providing a significant upgrade to the quarterback's receiving weapons.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveUsage0:48
Drake Maye finished fourth in yards per attempt on passes with 20+ air yards at 15.6, and led the league overall in yards per attempt for the season at 8.9.
Insight pageSam Darnold
PositiveProjection0:47
Darnold is projected to be separated by only two points from another top quarterback for the full season, indicating strong projected performance.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:47
Darnold led the league with 18.5 yards per attempt on passes with 20+ air yards, demonstrating elite deep ball efficiency.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports What a play!
0:04Can you believe this? He's had no idea It's time to dominate your fantasy league Off to the races!
0:11And he stays on his feet! He's just gonna go the distance!
0:15Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath Bold Prediction time right now on Fantasy Football Today on July 1st
0:22Happy July Dave and Heath We are in the month where training camp begins Yay!
0:28We are, Adam, you need more excitement It's been a mostly boring offseason I like that I'm looking forward, well I mean
0:35we had time to relax But I'm looking forward to training camp starting The stuff really flying, football coming back You can
0:43smell the freshly cut grass I'm ready for this!
0:46I'm ready for this! Yes, you can smell the freshly cut grass At all of the soccer games around the country In
0:54stadiums that put down freshly cut grass So first bold prediction United States wins tonight Advances to the semifinals Eventually Of the
1:02World Cup That's my first bold prediction USA semifinals Heath, I know you're fired up for the game Yeah, I think I'm
1:09glad you added the semifinals portion Because the United States are enormous Or at least large favorites in this game So saying
1:17they're going to win tonight Is definitely not a bold prediction Looking at the spreads of these soccer games Being a plus
1:25Well, Bosnia is plus 688 That's not even like that high Some of them have been insane Right, but I just Like
1:33unless France or Argentina is playing I think I'd like to just take those odds Because who knows?
1:39One ball might squeak in Yeah, yeah I feel that Okay Anyway, we got just one news item That I know of
1:47And an amazing stat that doesn't matter And then bold predictions on Zay Flowers Bejal Tootin David Montgomery And more Injury news
1:54and note Patrick Mahomes is trending toward Being ready for 11-on-11 work At the beginning of training camp According to Albert Breer
2:02of Sports Illustrated So A lot of injured players Are trending in the right direction It's good stuff And Mahomes is one
2:10of them I'm curious if there's going to be An ADP bump Once Mahomes is actually practicing Without the Injury jersey Full
2:1711 All that stuff I don't know I don't know how many people Are worried about Mahomes Missing week one I'm not
2:25I'm ranking him as if he's playing 17 He's QB 13 right now In average draft position You think he'll move up?
2:33Probably He's currently behind Tyler Shuck In our Fans only ADP That's crazy That's CBS I think he will move up The
2:41big question for me is not whether he misses week one It's whether As we've seen from Justin Herbert From Trevor Lawrence
2:48From Joe Burrow Others Whether the rushing decreases Because that Kept him afloat last year Or made him great last year actually
2:56It was rude to say it kept him afloat He was QB 2 before he got hurt Yeah We would have expected
3:04the rushing to decrease Either way But it could It could crater Yeah Right Alright CBS Sports HQ Is your hub For
3:11everything that's going on in the world of sports right now Tennis Golf Soccer NBA free agency NFL training camps opening up
3:19As a Yankees fan I don't want to watch anything about baseball right now But if you Are interested in baseball And
3:27anything else CBS Sports HQ It's on the CBS Sports app Go White Sox White Sox fans are very interested in baseball
3:35right now We can all be honorary White Sox fans Here's an amazing stat That doesn't matter We need fans Heath is
3:42going to talk about Sam Laporta today So as I was looking at the points per game leaders at tight end Darren
3:50Waller Was the number seven tight end per game last year Despite playing 45% of the snaps in the games he played
3:58in He averaged Darren Waller Averaged as many yards per out run as Trey McBride And he had the highest ADOT Among
4:05all tight ends with 30 or more targets Just a quick little shout out to Darren Waller Heath Good job Darren Waller
4:13Doesn't matter at all There we go Darren Waller And he wasn't really that bad when he was with the Giants a
4:21few years ago So if he resurfaces at any point You never know Tight end premium Okay Bold predictions Dave you're going
4:29to start it off with a David Montgomery Dave always does a bold prediction about someone named Dave or David I do
4:36Unbelievable No You'd probably not But this one is about David Montgomery What do we got?
4:42David Montgomery pulls a Joe Mixon And has one last big year And I don't know if you remember Joe Mixon's 2024
4:50with Houston But he was a top 10 fantasy running back regardless of format David Montgomery matches it I took a second
4:57look at him recently I recognized that the only number that he really went down in last year Was touches per game
5:05His efficiency was still good At least in line with where it was over the two seasons prior And now he's going
5:13to Houston I don't think he's got major competition for carries I certainly know he's got zero competition for goal line work
5:21And this is a team that's pretty conservative offensively Not going to throw the ball around a ton One of the best
5:28defenses in the NFL There's going to be a lot of favorable game scripts For a running back like David Montgomery To
5:36get a lot of work over the course of the season He's not a bad pass catcher I'm not going to draft
5:44him For his pass catching acumen But I am going to draft him expecting double digit touchdowns And I think he'll be
5:51an efficient runner This will be his last big year I can't remember the last time I was this excited To draft
5:59David Montgomery I moved him up in my rankings And he's somebody I'm targeting in that RB2 range But I think he's
6:07got potential to finish As a top 10 running back I just hope he doesn't have A Joe Mixon age 29 season
6:15I don't think that's possible At this point Well, I guess it could be, right?
6:20He could get hurt away from the team Hide the injury Not tell the team about it And then not work hard
6:28to rehab And come back from it So I suppose that's possible That seems like Maybe like a half percent chance of
6:35happening I don't know if he'll get 18 touches per game David Montgomery But it's certainly within the realm of possibility, right?
6:43Yes So over the last three seasons There have been exactly 12 running backs each year That have had 18 touches per
6:51game With a minimum of eight games And only three of those 36 running backs Finished outside the top 20 per game
6:58And right now Montgomery's ADP is RB20 So pretty good ADP And pretty good chance of him getting all that work And
7:06maybe not winning your league But at least being steady enough To be a top 20 running back One last thing Look
7:14at the Texans' schedule And tell me how many really tough run defenses They have on their schedule this year And if
7:22you ask me It's a damn good schedule It's just another factor that helps sell me On David Montgomery I do have
7:29a little bit of trouble Projecting him for 18 touches a game Yeah And it's not like he didn't receive that work
7:37Because he wasn't good the last few years He was obviously sharing with Jameer Gibbs But we are talking about a 29-year-old
7:45running back That hasn't had that much work since he was 24 That's true I kind of like it Because he hasn't
7:52had that kind of work since he was 24 That's a good point too The Texans' offensive line According to ESPN Was
8:00the worst run-blocking unit in the NFL It's very different this year Probably I don't know if it's that much better though,
8:08Adam Just to point out If there was a drawback to everything that I said about Montgomery It is the offensive line
8:16At best, it's solid on paper And certainly unproven across the board to be good So can it be better than it was last year?
8:24Yeah But that just might mean they're right around league average I thought sports I thought I hated David Montgomery But Sportsline
8:32really hates David Montgomery 33rd, wow At running back All right Yeah, Joe Mixon With Houston in 2024 He only averaged 4.1
8:40yards per carry But he got Like every important touch For that team For the 14 games He stayed healthy And was Would you say top 10?
8:49Running RB10 or something? He was at least RB10 In every format All right Let's stick with Dave Your second bold prediction
8:57Is about Isaiah Likely He finishes as what? I told you that he finishes a top 6 tight end And I don't
9:05know if that's bold enough So let's say he finishes as a top 4 tight end Leads the Giants in targets Catches
9:12yards and touchdowns Just completely takes the leap That we've been hoping for him to have He's in an offense that Might
9:20not throw as much as we want them to But if Malik Neighbors Isn't Malik Neighbors And the rest of that receiving
9:28core Isn't particularly great This is going to be the player That Jackson Dart Leans on And we've seen it from him
9:36It's a real small sample size In his career Isaiah Likely's had 9 games In his career With at least 6 targets
9:43Okay, 9 games 6 targets He has 12.5 PPR points In 8 of those 9 games That's in Baltimore It's with a
9:51better quarterback For most of those games And Dart in the second year I just think he's going to need Somebody in
9:59the short area To lean on Likely has yards after catch ability And I just think that we see A completely different
10:06role for him Last point Matt Nagy is the play caller Now in New York When he was the play caller In
10:14Chicago He brought in a tight end Named Trey Burton And Trey Burton Wasn't necessarily great For fantasy I think he averaged
10:22Like 9.2 PPR points per game And he only had 4.8 targets per game But it's kind of the same role That
10:30Likely will have And I think it's going to be A bigger role Than what Trey Burton had Trey Burton just had
10:37An okay role I think Likely ends up Having a much bigger role This is a tight end That You asked me
10:45yesterday Is there a tight end You're targeting This is the one that I'm targeting Outside of just getting One at a
10:53good value If I can get Isaiah Likely I've done a 180 on him If I can get Isaiah Likely Let's call
11:00it round 9 Round 10 or even later I'm a happy man I feel like I'm two-thirds Of away To the Dave
11:08Richard Tight end trifecta Because we've got him To turn around On Sam Laporta We've got him to turn around On Isaiah
11:16Likely We just gotta push Kyle Pitts through Oh that's not happening It'll be the greatest Off season of my life That's
11:24not happening When something happens To Drake London If Drake London gets hurt Or something like that Then yes Of course Okay
11:31Alright Heath any thoughts On Isaiah Likely Being a top four tight end Yeah I've got him Sixth in my projections Right
11:39now So I agree with Dave We had to push that up To make it a little bit more I think Listen
11:47Some of it's gonna come down To how healthy Malik Nabors is And how they How often They actually Throw the football
11:54But I I expect him to be Second on the team In targets I've got him projected For 112 He's been Very
12:02efficient I think we saw That Jackson Dart Is very willing To throw the ball To his tight ends Oh yeah So
12:10I Pops Asks in the chat Theo Johnson Oh Adam tried to hit it At the same time I did Yeah no
12:18I was gonna bring this point up I think Theo Johnson Could Wreck the plans For Isaiah Likely A little bit I
12:25don't There could be a couple Of touchdowns That go Theo Johnson Yeah he could score Some touchdowns They're not the same
12:33Tight They're both tight ends But they're not The same type of tight ends Well and they already Had Theo Johnson And
12:41they chose to go Spend that money On Isaiah Likely also Yeah And tight end Is a position Where guys can have
12:48Late breakouts After really not Doing much Johnny Smith It was only one year David Njoku Had basically Three good years After
12:56not doing much So It's just all about Opportunity He's got the opportunity I was gonna say Yeah He took the words
13:04Out of my mouth Jackson Dart 22.8% target rate To tight ends Last year Believe it or not That was below average
13:12Among qualifying quarterbacks But that's still Pretty good When you're looking For a player To get Some decent volume So if they
13:19throw I mean Do the math If they throw 550 times 22% of that It's not bad It's not a bad Target
13:27share For our guy Likely That may be Exactly what I have Projected Yeah And you obviously Have to give some targets
13:35To Theo Johnson Of course Yeah Okay Let's take a break We have another Tight end Bold prediction When we come back
13:42From Heath Cummings And if you In the chat Have any Bold predictions We'll read those At the end of the show
13:50We'll be right back On FFT And we welcome you Back here to Fantasy Football today Alright Heath has two Bold predictions
13:58This one is a Tight end prediction I wonder Is this more about The first one That you're gonna mention Or the
14:06second one In the sentence Go ahead It's about Both Sam Laporta Will outscore Trey McBride This season Gas The guy Who
14:13gained Drew Petsing Versus the guy Who lost Drew Petsig And that's not Entirely what it's about But I do think This
14:21is interesting If you look At the career Averages Of Sam Laporta On a per target Basis Versus the career Best For
14:29Trey McBride On a per target Basis Sam Laporta Has averaged 8.3 yards Per target For his career Trey McBride Has averaged
14:36His best season 7.8 yards Per target Sam Laporta Has a 7.9% Career touchdown rate Trey McBride Last year His best season
14:446.5% Touchdown rate Sam Laporta Has averaged 2.05 Fantasy points Per target Trey McBride His best season 1.87 Fantasy points Per target
14:52Sam Laporta Has been Undeniably Better than Trey McBride On a per target Basis The difference Has been Trey McBride Has been
15:00in this Titan centric Offense Sam Laporta Has not And so Trey McBride Scored more Fantasy points Now the guy Who was
15:07running Trey McBride's Offense is running Sam Laporta's Offense And yes He has a Munra St.
15:13Brown And Jamison Williams Last year There were 391 snaps Where a Munra St.
15:18Brown Sam Laporta And Jamison Williams Were all On the field Sam Laporta Had a 20.7% Target rate Target share With what?
15:26Target share Or target Per route Target share Okay Target share Target per route Run's pretty Similar to Target share When you're
15:33Just using The place Where they're On the field Not entirely The same Because he Blocks Sometimes Occasionally That's 20.7% Without Drew
15:41Petsig Calling Place Now maybe Drew Petsig Doesn't matter At all Maybe it's Exactly The same But even A small Boost To
15:49those Numbers And you Are looking At a Massive Season Or Sam Laporta Jared Goff Averaged 574 Pass Attempts Over the Last
15:56Three Seasons Drew Petsig's Offense Has Averaged 591 If you Just look At my Projections 581 Kind of Right in The Middle
16:04Of Those A 21% Target Share Which is Basically What he Had last Year When he Was On The Field Is 122
16:12Targets A 22% Is 128 Targets I Don't Think That's The Ceiling It's Pretty Easy To Calculate How Many Fantasy Points He
16:20Would Score Because He's Averaged Almost Exactly Two Fantasy Points Per Target 128 128 Targets Times Two That's 15 Fantasy Points Per
16:27Game Well He Was Talking Talking When Their Defense Hasn't Been As Good They've Thrown More I Don't Think This Has Been
16:35A Very Good Off Season For The Detroit Lions Defense Well I Was Just Reading About Terry And Arnold And Look He's
16:43An Important Player For Them Because He's A Starting Cornerback But He's Actually Been No Both Of Their Starting Safeties Are Questionable
16:50To Start The Season Is Amik Robertson Back No He's Gone To DJ Reid Was Corner Opposite Terry And Arnold Amik Robertson
16:58Led The Team In Passes Defense Last Year By I Actually Like The Nickel That They Got To Come In And Play
17:06Roger McCrary He Was Great In Tennessee He Was Okay In LA And Now He's There Malcolm Rodriguez Has Been A Good
17:14Like Backup Linebacker Sort Of For Them And Now he'll Take Over A lot Of The Anzalone Role At Weekside I Don't
17:21Like They Didn't Really Make A lot Of Moves To Help Their Pass Rush Obviously Aiden Hutchinson Being Awesome They Drafted Derek
17:29more They Brought In DJ Wanham All This Still Points To The Same Conclusion Which Is That The Lions Defense Isn't Particularly
17:37Better Than It Was Last Year And His Efficiency And You've Sold Me A While Ago Now But You've Sold Me On
17:44Sam Laporta Being A Good Draft Pick I Just Want To Point Out That There's A More Than Four Target Per Game
17:52Difference Between Laporta And McBride Over The Past Two Seasons And Do I Think That Will Shrink A Little Bit This Year
18:00Of Course Because Petsing Going To Detroit Lions Want To Use Multiple Tight End Formations It Should Lead To More Targets For
18:08Laporta And I Do Think That It's Tough To Expect Nine Targets Per Game For Trey McBride Moving Forward But I Think
18:15The Gap Might Fall To Two And A Half Targets Per Game And That Would Still Put Laporta Around Six Six And
18:23Half Targets Per Game That's Awesome But I I Don't Know If That Means He Could Be A Top Three Tight End
18:31Anything Else Sam Laporta's Mustache Is Cool I Like It I The Thing I Just Want To Talk About Does Playing A
18:38Multiple Tight End Set Is That It Leads To More Tight End Set Teams Rams Although The Rams Actually Played The Most
18:46Three Tight End Sets So Yeah You Know What I Should I Should Have Sorted It By Two Plus Tight Des I
18:54Sury Brown It Is Going To Be Similar Brown Raven Steelers Cardinals Falcons Bears That Is Top Six Good Tight I Mean
19:02You Gotse McBride Pitts But They Actually Didn't Throw To Their Tight End and playing two or more tight ends will lead
19:09to more tight end targets with Kittle being the exception there.
19:13Cause the 49ers rarely did it. Loveland average seven targets per game from week seven on last year.
19:19As a team, they didn't throw to the tight end that much.
19:24They had 136 tight end targets last year. Is that a lot?
19:28I would say like, I haven't got my, I've been working on my opportunity index.
19:33That makes it easier to compare that. But I would say it's probably close to average.
19:39On the subject of the coaching, I think this is going to be a great test because if.
19:45Stefanski and Petsing are. Maybe for the people like me who are more on the it's about players, not about coaches side,
19:53this is hard to ignore their history, but Petsing has been an offensive coordinator for three seasons and Trey McBride's been his best player.
20:01So Stefanski, I could, I think, you know, maybe I could see it a little bit more.
20:07Does it, you know, you don't really care that before Petsing was an offensive coordinator for three seasons, he was with Kevin Stefanski for 10 seasons.
20:16No, I, of course I, I do. I do.
20:19Um, and they sure they're going to want to use a tight end.
20:24It's just Kevin Stefanski has never had on on Ross St.
20:28Brown and or Petsing have never had on modern race, Brown and Jamison Williams.
20:33And maybe you just don't think Jamison Williams is going to do much.
20:37Um, I, I just, I think more it's like we're acting.
20:41I don't want to act like these coaches are going to use these bums at tight end because they always throw to tight ends.
20:50They went to places where they have very talented tight ends.
20:53Yeah, for sure. But I also remember, uh, this hubbub about Kellen Moore and his slot receivers and who was a slot receiver in Philadelphia.
21:02It was Devante Smith. Devante Smith had a Devante Smith type of season with him.
21:07AJ Brown at a 27.3% target per route run rate.
21:11Dave, I gave you another example we were talking about the other day.
21:16Um, of like, Oh, I mean, you could even say Ben, Oh, Ben Johnson, Ben Johnson and his slot guy.
21:23I'm on Ross St. Brown. Ben Johnson is slot guy.
21:26Who did I say led the team in slot slot, uh, routes last year?
21:31It was, uh, a lot of days, a key is, I think he was awful.
21:36So it's, I don't know. It's about players to me.
21:40Um, but this is, but I'm not ignoring it because this is the really, I think one of the most compelling coaching arguments you can make.
21:49Uh, but if it doesn't work out, then I think it will further embolden me next year to be like, yeah, I
21:57don't, again, I, I think the vast majority of my argument for Sam LaPorta was a bit about how awesome he's been on a per target basis.
22:06And that even a small boost in targets, I don't expect him to have a 30% target share like Trey McBride.
22:13No, but I do think he has a higher target rate this year.
22:18What do you make of the back injury? That will be concerning to me if we get to training camp and he's not healthy.
22:26All right. Next, uh, bold prediction is actually someone else.
22:30Yeah. Scooped you here. Where is it? Oh, there was a, someone had a, uh, Zay flowers.
22:36I think it was Zay flowers. We had top five, uh, wide receiver for a bold prediction in our chat.
22:43Uh, by the way, Hey, don't give, get gamer the, the, okay.
22:47Sorry. I didn't see it. Gridiron gamer says flowers will be a top five tight end.
22:53If you want to comment live in the chat, great.
22:56If you're not watching live and you're on YouTube, you want to comment in the, in the comment section, give us bold predictions there.
23:05But what is your Zay flowers? Bold prediction. Zay flowers will score 10 touchdowns and be a top five wide receiver.
23:12So I, I, I one up to a little bit, great iron gamer.
23:17Um, and I, I, I talked about the first part of this, um, on a past show.
23:22I think this fact that every year we have a wide receiver who doesn't score touchdowns, who all of a sudden scores touchdowns last year.
23:31It was Chris. Lave had a 3.3% career touchdown rate going into last year, scored nine touchdowns on 156 targets.
23:38The year before it was Terry McLaurin at a 4.1% touchdown rate going into that year, scored 13 touchdowns on 117, 2023.
23:46We actually had two of those guys, Cortland Sutton.
23:49We think of him as like, has always been a touchdown scorer.
23:53He had 14 touchdowns on 421 career targets before 2023.
23:57And then he scored 10 touchdowns on 90 targets.
24:00Among Ross, St. Brown had a 4.2% touchdown rate his first two seasons.
24:05And now all of a sudden, now he just scores touchdowns every year.
24:09And I think your comeback was pretty good. It's like, yeah, but say flowers, this little guy and he doesn't get targeted in the red zone.
24:18So I did find a couple of guys who are very similarly sized Tuesday flowers, who had a similar touchdown breakout about this point in their career.
24:28Tyler Lockett had a 4.4% touchdown rate. His first three seasons, two seasons, three seasons, one of the two had 10 touchdowns on 70 targets the next year.
24:38And then this one's going to really probably get you mad, but I think he might be closer to this guy in
24:45terms of fantasy production, the next five years than Tyler Lockett Antonio Brown.
24:50Had a 3.6% touchdown rate on his first 416 targets and then scored 13 touchdowns in a season.
24:56Say flowers has arrived as an elite wide receiver and the clear target hog in Baltimore.
25:02He just needs the touchdowns to be an elite fantasy football wide receiver.
25:06This is the year. And, you know, you could have just gone with Marquise Brown, by the way, who had, uh, who
25:14had, uh, well, let's see, I was looking for end zone targets.
25:18I don't know if he scored a lot of touchdowns, but Marquise Brown had, had three seasons with nine, 13 and 13 end zone targets.
25:27Uh, I think at least two of those were with Baltimore.
25:31Oh no, they were all with Baltimore. Yeah. Marcus, Marquise Brown wouldn't have fit quite as well because he had seven touchdowns on 71 targets as a rookie.
25:41Oh, and then scored eight, eight. The next year he came into the leagues, the only scoring touchdowns and, but not from the red zone.
25:49It was from the 50. Yeah. Right. I mean, I guess that my point is my Marquise Brown on the Ravens was
25:57a short five foot nine ish guy who got a lot of end zone targets, which is what we'd like to see.
26:05And I think when you make these bold predictions, it's like, there are so many unpredictable things in fantasy.
26:12You're just looking for players who, if things break, right, they could just go, go bananas.
26:17I just could be amazing for them. Like they might need a break or two, but they're talented enough to capitalize on that break.
26:26Would you, would you agree with that? That's kind of what we're hunting here.
26:30Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Cause you just, you know, you know, you can't really predict it.
26:36Um, and that's where I'm going with my Bejal Tootin, uh, bold prediction.
26:40I, my bold prediction is that Bejal Tootin will be a league winner.
26:45No, he did not have a very impressive rush average last year, but there are plenty of running backs who struggle as rookies.
26:53And I just, I mean, I watched tape of him earlier this off season.
26:58I liked him. I watched more tape yesterday and I really liked Bejal Tootin.
27:03I think he's obviously super fast and, but also pretty physical, but biggest problem I have here is I also like to tape for Chris Rodriguez.
27:12And I cannot deny that Chris Rodriguez is very good at what he does.
27:17He's, he's just very physical. Um, doesn't lose yards a lot.
27:21He's hard to tackle. It's not going to be a game changer.
27:25Like the difference between Tootin and Rodriguez is if one gets hurt, Tootin, I think has league winning potential.
27:31If Tootin gets hurt though, I don't think Rodriguez does.
27:35He has six catches in his career and he's just not an explosive player, but if things break, right?
27:42If some break happens for Bejal Tootin, if there's an injury or he just outplays Chris Rodriguez and he becomes the lead
27:49back for the Jacksonville Jaguars, my bold prediction is that Bejal Tootin will be a league winner.
27:55Thoughts, Dave? One of my favorite backfields to double up on, on draft day, because you can get Bejal Tootin right at that round five, six turn.
28:05That's where it is on CBS ADP. Chris Rodriguez can be had right around a hundredth overall, maybe a little bit later.
28:13And between the two of them, you should have hopefully a starting running back every single week.
28:18This is a great offense. They were very prolific under Liam Cohen last year.
28:23They've made it clear, at least at this point, that these are the two running backs that they're going to go to
28:31battle with on first and second downs. And the, the, the points you made about Tootin's film were good.
28:38I would add that five of his touchdowns last year came from inside the five.
28:43He had a 71% success rate inside the five.
28:46Chris Rodriguez had 35% with Washington last year. And I cannot get it out of my head that the commanders for, for
28:54all the running back issues that they had going into the off season, let Chris Rodriguez go when they didn't really even
29:02have to, they could have given him, I think it was a restricted tag and they just let him walk.
29:09And he, he went to Jacksonville. He's got familiarity with Liam Cohen.
29:13I almost think that that's the best thing about him is that familiarity, because otherwise you said you were impressed with the film.
29:21I thought he was okay. I don't think he's necessarily great.
29:25I think Tootin has more upside. I think everybody would see that if they watched Tootin play.
29:31Well, you're talking about Chris Rodriguez film. Chris Rodriguez.
29:34Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like I, I think what was impressive about him was that he just, he doesn't go down easily.
29:41He's really tough. He's a good, rugged runner, but he's nothing like Basel Tootin.
29:46Basel Tootin is short. He's five, nine, but 209 pounds.
29:50And he ran a four, three, two. He is a combination of speed and power.
29:55Uh, yes, yes. And, and Rodriguez is not, I don't think it's going to be a week one thing.
30:02He's going to have to earn it. Hopefully in the first month of the season, it's going to be kind of an annoying split.
30:10I think Dave, but, uh, Tootin to me is the guy that can really take the run game to the next level.
30:18He had a 15 carry game week 11 against the chargers.
30:22The majority of his carries came in the first three quarters.
30:25He averaged 4.9 yards per rush. It's an example of what Tootin can do when he gets into the rhythm of a game.
30:33He really didn't get that opportunity because Travis HM was in Jacksonville last year, and he was the one that was kind
30:41of leading the way in that backfield all year long.
30:45If Tootin gets that role, I think he can be, I don't think he'll be 4.9 yards per carry.
30:51but I think he'll be plenty good. And I, I think he's got a chance to at least split the short yardage
30:59touchdown work with Chris Rodriguez, particularly because of how good he was at it last year.
31:05Heath, any thoughts here? And I'll say, you know, one of the issues with drafting Tootin, just looking at fantasy pros is
31:12he's going in the same range as Travion Henderson.
31:16I would take Tootin. Quinchon Judkins. I think I'd have to take Judkins.
31:20Bucky Irving. I could say the same exact stuff.
31:23I mean, I can't sit here and say Bucky Irving is not a league winner, potential league winner.
31:30Um, so, you know, it's not like, it's not an easy draft pick.
31:34I think you're going to be passing up similar players and, you know, something in you is going to have to decide you want Tootin.
31:43But what do you think? I, I've been probably, um, more skeptical of Tootin.
31:48And I, I think the way you introduced this one's kind of strange.
31:52Oh, in what sense? I mean, it's just like talking about guys that we just are really talented.
31:59And if things go right, it could be, I don't think we've seen very much evidence that base Schultz, and we don't
32:06have that much evidence from the NFL that they think he's, I mean, I guess Jacksonville letting ETN walk is about the
32:14best evidence we have, but he, he was a day three running back with one kind of good college season.
32:21Yeah. And I, I, he's, he has some ball security concerns and he's probably not going to do a whole lot in the passing game.
32:30And I, I just don't, I think he, I don't, I think he's very similar to bill in, except bill was a
32:38lot better as a rusher last year. Um, like they, they're just, they're, they're good with the ball in their hands.
32:45If they can keep the ball in their hands, um, on rush attempts.
32:50Okay. I, I guess it's just, I, I look past the numbers personally and I, I like what I see.
32:57So that's why I went with right. Yeah. Um, there have been, so he's RB 24 right now in ADP over the last four seasons.
33:05How many running backs drafted as RB 20 or later finished top 12 per game?
33:11In 22, 22, we had four. The next year we had five.
33:15The next year we had zero. And last year we had two cam Scadaboo and Javante Williams.
33:21So that gives us 11 running backs in the last four years that were drafted as RB 20 or later and finished top 12 per game.
33:30And six of those 11 were first or second year players.
33:34Uh, so that's, I think is kind of telling guys that, you know, the Javante Williams of the world, aren't the more
33:41common, the Scadaboo's of the world are. Um, and, uh, maybe toton can be that guy this year.
33:48All right. One last point. Yeah. If I may make it.
33:52Cause he's compared him to cross game merit. Cross game merit had twice as many carries as toton.
33:58Uh, certainly the arts per rush favored cross game merit, but in EPA, they were exactly the same success rate.
34:05Tootin was better, noticeably better than cross game merit.
34:08And what? In success rate? Yes. Oh, okay. I, the reason I was confused was not because I, I knew that stat for Tootin.
34:17It was because Bill led the NFL in rush success rate, but Tootin probably didn't have enough carries to qualify.
34:24That's fair. Um, I just, I got to compare them based on the work that they did.
34:30Uh, Toon had a better avoided tackle rate, but it was close.
34:34The explosion rate is really where cross game merit one.
34:37And that's what he's known for is just having that speed to break away.
34:42Does Tootin have it? Yeah. Do we see it as much?
34:46No, because he didn't, he had half as many carries.
34:49And so I am very curious to see what happens if Tootin does get in the neighborhood of 13 carries a week,
34:57throw a catch on top of that. If that's how he starts the season and he takes off, he's going to be
35:05the featured back in Jacksonville and a must start fantasy running back.
35:09Okay. Here. Oh, he wasn't his offensive coordinator. Nevermind.
35:12I was going to say 2023. There was a running back who averaged 3.6 yards per carry as a rookie, just as
35:20Bejal Tootin did was RB 25 and ADP toons 24 right now and finished as RB 10 per game.
35:27And it was Rashad white, but that was not a Liam Cohen year as his offensive coordinator.
35:33Uh, what year? 2023. Yeah. That was Canales. Okay.
35:36Uh, let's take a break. And I've got one more bold prediction for you when we come back on fantasy football today,
35:44and then we'll read yours after that. We'll be right back.
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36:48It's where America shops for furniture. We've got another Detroit Lions bold prediction.
36:53Here it is. Jameer Gibbs will average the second most PPR fantasy points per game of any running back in the last 10 years.
37:01He'll be better than everyone other than 2019 Christian McCaffrey, who averaged 29.3 points per game.
37:07McCaffrey then averaged 30 points per game the next year, something like that, but that was only three games.
37:14So Jameer Gibbs is about to have the second best running back season of the last decade.
37:20And obviously this is a bold prediction. I don't think it's actually going to happen, but I could see it because the setup is so good.
37:29Over the last three years, the Lions are second, first, and fifth in running back carries.
37:34Second, first, and 14th in running back goal line carries.
37:38They are third, first, and first in running back PPR fantasy points per game.
37:43Jameer Gibbs has been amazing over the last three years without being the goal line back.
37:48David Montgomery has the second most goal line carries in the NFL over the last three seasons.
37:54Well, he's gone now. And Jameer Gibbs has scored on 70% of his goal line carries, which is really, really high and
38:02won't continue, but he's very good there. Dan Campbell said that Jameer Gibbs is going to be the bell cow.
38:09And then let's take a look at this graphic here.
38:13It's a little confusing. I'll have to explain some of it to you, but the gist is Jameer Gibbs is amazing on a per touch basis.
38:22PPR fantasy points per touch since he entered the league.
38:25Jameer Gibbs at 1.14. Or Devon Achan at 1.14.
38:28Gibbs is technically a little bit ahead of Achan in terms of decimals, but those two guys are the best.
38:35I put Priest Holmes, his best three season stretch on here.
38:39And Jameer Gibbs is a little bit better than Priest Holmes was.
38:43I put LaDainian Tomlinson, a six season stretch for him from 2002 to 2007.
38:48And Jameer Gibbs on a per touch basis is much better than LaDainian Tomlinson was.
38:54He's also better than Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley have been.
39:00And if you're looking at this graphic, Christian McCaffrey is just behind Gibbs and Achan.
39:05Those three seasons though, I eliminated 2024. So I went with 2022, three and five for him.
39:11But the bottom line is you have got the most efficient running back on a per touch basis who just lost David Montgomery.
39:19He's on the best offense over the last three years to produce running back fantasy points.
39:24It couldn't be a better setup for a break your league.
39:28You won because you have Jameer Gibbs type of season.
39:32So my bold prediction is that he is basically going to be LaDainian Tomlinson and be incredible.
39:38So you're taking him first so far. Yeah, I am taking him first in role.
39:43It's a good choice. It's bold. I was at Jamar Chase, but then I just thought, I was like, no, it's.
39:50If you were, if you were in an auction draft, would you spend 40% of your budget on Jameer Gibbs?
39:57No. In a full PPR? No, I wouldn't. it would be worth that much?
40:02I mean, look, if my bold prediction comes true, then sure.
40:06But I don't think I can. if your bold prediction comes true, he's probably worth 60.
40:12Maybe. Absolutely. When I first ran my calculations, and I've only got him projected for like 20 more fantasy points than any other non-QB.
40:20I love this bold prediction. But when I first ran kind of my auction values, I came up with him at 39.
40:28So. Out of a hundred. Out of a hundred.
40:31So I'm, I guess I'll get Jameer Gibbs in the auction league.
40:35Okay, maybe I'll go 39 and a half, 39, 50.
40:39I'm not in the auction league. Don't worry about it.
40:42Why be? Is, is he, he's number one for Heath.
40:46Dave, is he number one for you? Oh, of course.
40:49Yeah. I mean, we talked about him versus Bijon last week.
40:53And I, I do think I said that I cannot put an argument on paper of why to take Bijon over Gibbs.
41:01It doesn't mean that I don't think Bijon could outscore him, but I think some of the comments that we got were like, Bijon's a lot bigger.
41:10He's more suited for the every down roll. That's the only thing that concerns me that Gibbs is, is his body going
41:18to let him be a bell cow? Um, I don't have that concern with Bijon Robinson.
41:24So I could see that, uh, getting in his way.
41:27Other than that, I don't think anything's getting in his way.
41:31You know what, what probably could determine it is which of Sam Laporta or Kyle Pitts gets the most of a coordinator boost.
41:39Cause I think Dave's talked about this a lot.
41:42Like a lot of times there's a negative relationship between tight end targets and running back targets.
41:48And it could be that I've kind of wondered if maybe they use Gibbs just a little bit less in the passing game.
41:56And he doesn't share rush attempts near as much as he has in the past, which would probably be bad for his
42:04fantasy points per touch, but not for his touchdowns and total fantasy points.
42:09Yeah. Jameer Gibbs had a, uh, 21.2% target share without Laporta and a 13.3% target share with Laporta.
42:15Yep. I mean, huge difference. So that's enough. I wouldn't really call that a concern.
42:20I mean, I think he'll be involved enough in the passing game.
42:24Uh, I'll take the over on 13.3%, but yeah, it was, it changed his season last year for sure.
42:31I mean, he was already, it was great, but he was greater after the Laporta injury.
42:37Um, okay. Let's see what the audience has to say.
42:40Some bold predictions from the people. Gridiron gamers got a lot of them.
42:45Wandale Robinson will finish the year with more targets and yards and Carnell Tate.
42:50I like it. I don't, I, I agree with the targets and disagree with the yard.
42:55Exactly where I was going. Yeah. Willie, who will have more fantasy points?
43:00I'll take you. I would draft Tate first. Oh my God.
43:04This is so bold from Wisco Disco. This better include like six special teams, touchdowns.
43:09Raheem Shaheed will lead Seattle in touchdowns. Oof. That's bold.
43:12Yeah. I, yeah. I mean, JSN gets hurt week one.
43:16I don't even want to say that. What am I doing?
43:20Did you know that? I'm pretty, I'm 95% sure the status, correct.
43:24Sam Darnold had the best yards per attempt on deep balls, 20 or more air yards last year.
43:30Sounds familiar. I mean, I know it was better than Drake May.
43:35Cause I remember looking it up for the super bowl.
43:38So that, that should help Rashid G if he could do that again.
43:43Yeah. He's not gonna do that again. Yeah. I think that'll be part of what they asked Shaheed to do, but I
43:50think they're trying to change his role at least based on what we're, we're reading about and they just paid him a lot of money.
43:59So he should see an update. He should see some of the best volume he's ever had in his career, but it's
44:07a matter of, well, more than Jackson Smith and Jigba seems crazy.
44:11Jason's going to have to win power ball in order for that to happen.
44:16But we could, you should absolutely consider drafting Rashid Shaheed with a late pick.
44:21Nothing wrong with that at all. All right. Next up is from JC Reyes.
44:26Ashton Gentry will disappoint and finish below top 12 at running back.
44:30Isaiah likely finishes top five. We already covered that one.
44:33We have him top four as a bowl prediction.
44:37Jordan Tyson and Mekhi Lemon will finish higher than Carnell Tate.
44:40I can see all those things. What's the most likely, no pun intended of this.
44:46Gentry will disappoint. We got to make it a little bit more bold than top 12.
44:51I think like, let's say top. Six. Yeah. I think he's 12th in my projections.
44:57So that's definitely the most likely of his bold project predictions.
45:00Gentry. I think it was 14th among running backs last year on a per game basis.
45:06Double checking. Where is he? 16th. My bad. Could he be worse than that?
45:11I think that would be a bold prediction. I think got light likely finishes top five is the boldest.
45:18Yes. All right. Uh, George Halani will outscore Jadarian price and fantasy this year from Trey.
45:23Ooh, gross. Really gross. Yeah. Do you guys like price or tootin?
45:27Since you just had your tootin one. Tootin. I'm on tootin.
45:31Uh, bold prediction from Eddie. Adam will win at least one set in his next tennis match against Dan.
45:38Yeah. Yeah. I feel decent about it. We'll see.
45:41You're going to win the whole thing. Yeah, I don't, but, um, I just, there's like one shot that I need to get better at.
45:50And I feel like I can, because he always hits, he always hits the ball to my backhand and then he comes in.
45:58I have to get better at my backhand lob.
46:01If I can get better at my backhand lob, I can beat him.
46:06Uh, so I'll be working on that. I do.
46:09You should all know I have Achilles tendonitis and I haven't played in two weeks.
46:14Uh, hoping to get back out there next week, but I am injured.
46:19So I wouldn't, I wouldn't put too much on me.
46:22Uh, gridiron gamer says cam ward finishes as a top 12 quarterback.
46:26I like it. Yeah. That's within the realm. I don't see it.
46:31It's a tough position to crack the top 12 in.
46:34Mm hmm. Oh yeah. I don't really see it either, but the fact that they are encouraging cam ward to rush more
46:42as, as gridiron gamer points out is encouraging. I mean, it just kind of depends on, are we talking full, full season?
46:49Are we talking per game? Everyone plays 17 games.
46:53So everyone plays 17. Both. What's that? Both. Yeah.
46:56Per game and overall. Yeah. I don't know. I, it's going to be tough.
47:0112 last year was 21.1. It's not that outlandish.
47:04Yeah. It's just, I'm sure you probably feel like there are going to be 12 quarterbacks who can do that, but you're right.
47:12It's not crazy for him to average 21 points per game.
47:16Uh, Jordan Tyson is a top five wide receiver from Ben Seth.
47:20That's pretty insane. Unless Chris Olave is not. Okay.
47:23It's wild. It's true. And finally from, it's going to have to stay.
47:28Okay. Remember Tyson isn't at a hundred percent right now either.
47:32Uh, from Brian, Jaden Daniels regains his form and outscores Drake may.
47:36I don't see it. I think may proven to be a pretty good quarterback and now he's getting AJ Brown.
47:43I, I would not, I've got them separated by two points in my projections for the full season.
47:49So yeah, if I did projections, it would be more than that.
47:53Adam, what was the stat you were looking for on Sam?
47:57Darnold highest yards per attempt on past attempts of 20 more air yards.
48:02He was actually second. He had 8.5. That's really good.
48:05You know who first was Matthew? Timely Matthew Stafford, Drake may no 8.9 yards per attempt.
48:11You sure? No, I'm not sure. Son of a, sorry.
48:14Salty language. Cause I remember looking that up going into the super bowl and I was like, Oh, even the best thing
48:22about the Patriots offense, Sam Darnold has done better than Drake may this year.
48:27Darnold was first 18.5. Drake may was fourth 15.6.
48:30I didn't have the filter on air yards. There you go.
48:34Overall for the season though, Drake may first in yards per attempt.
48:38That's pretty damn good. Yeah. Yes, it is. Okay.
48:41Is that it? I think that's it, right? Please.
48:45I don't want to mess up another stat. All good.
48:48Uh, so tomorrow back to 10 AM and we'll see you then for Dave and Heath.
48:54I'm Adam. I want to thank all of you for your participation in today's show.
48:59That is awesome stuff. And, uh, we'll see you later and have a good one.
49:04podcasts. What are you sending us? This is a fun one.
49:08On July 23rd, boldly go one step closer to where it all began.
49:13What we are about to do cannot be taken back.
49:16Stream the new season of Star Trek Strange New Worlds, July 23rd on Paramount+.
