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1:46Get started today. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
1:50What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can.
1:54It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
1:59He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
2:05All right, it is Tuesday, June 30th, and we've got some fill-in-the-blank for you, and we're going to talk about Christian Watson's
2:13potential, which Chargers-wide receiver is going to benefit the most from a new offense, a post-hype sleeper, someone who failed to live
2:20up to the hype but now is going to make that big jump, and a lot more.
2:26And we welcome you. I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Dave Richard.
2:30I guess not that much more. We do have a pretty cool stat about...
2:35Dave, it's about wide receivers, two stud-wide receivers on the same team, and being able to repeat that success, right?
2:42There's been anywhere from zero to two teammates of wide receivers that both finish top 12 in PPR points per game each
2:49of the last 11 seasons, 2014 through 2024. How many times have teammate receivers repeated as top 12 in PPR points per game in consecutive seasons?
2:58Obviously, that would mean repeating over that time span, 2014 to 2024.
3:02Twice. Heath says twice. Adam, are you higher or lower than Heath?
3:06Top 12. Hmm. I'm going to say... Wait, but I thought you said zero to two earlier.
3:12What was that? Zero to two per year. How many times has happened?
3:17Oh, per year. Per season. Yes. He didn't give us the total number.
3:21And we know that CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were both top 12 on a PPR per game basis.
3:27I'm going to say three times. I'm going to say Chase and Higgins.
3:32You're saying over. I didn't ask you to start naming.
3:35You lost, Adam. Yeah, over. You kind of lose on this alone.
3:39The answer is one time. One time from 2014 to 2024 has a duo finished top 12 in PPR points per game back-to-back seasons.
3:48Can you name the duo? I'm going to guess you can't.
3:51And, Adam, you can guess Chase and Higgins, but that would be incorrect.
3:56Well, then I'll guess something else. I want Thomas Schaefer to guess.
4:00Ah, yeah. Diggs and Diggs. No, Diggs. Diggs and Diggs.
4:03Oh, damn. I was going to say... Dillon also did it with Jefferson.
4:08He did. I believe. Yeah. So, Adam Thielen... But they didn't repeat.
4:12Adam Thielen is the key to having two wide receivers in the top 12.
4:16So is Devontae Adams. Devontae Adams has done it a number of times with Jordy Nelson.
4:22I don't know. I don't think Garrett... No, not with Garrett Wilson.
4:26Overall with Garrett Wilson, but not per game with Garrett Wilson.
4:30And last year, overall with Puka Nakua. Devontae Adams has actually been...
4:34Dave's doing per game, which is great. Devontae Adams has been a top 12 wide receiver with a teammate two years in a row.
4:42Garrett Wilson in 2024 and Puka Nakua last year.
4:45That's raw EPR points. Yes. I had a follow-up to Dave's question.
4:49Not a complete answer yet, but we've begun the research.
4:53I talked about how there were like three or four pairs or trios of pass catchers that I had projected for over 65% of their teams off targets.
5:02Adam is now spitting pits to make a point.
5:05Well, it's what we do. We eat charries and we spit out the pits in front of people.
5:11We don't eat while we podcast. This is an idiotic way to try to prove your point.
5:17We do not eat. Who eats while podcasts? It's totally gross.
5:21One of the times I think I got the most angry at you ever was like a year into my career at CBS.
5:29And we used to do the baseball podcast like at eight in the morning, right?
5:34Like I'm still a little bit grumpy from being up.
5:37And I get on and Adam is eating like a bagel with cream cheese as we're getting ready to start the show.
5:45And like it was as if he was having a who can eat the loudest contest.
5:50This bagel and cream cheese is just smacking off of his yam.
5:54Anyway, yes. Last year, the top three trios in terms of target share percentage, AJ Brown, Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard had 68% of the targets in Philadelphia.
6:04Amon Ross St. Brown, Jamison Williams and Jameer Gibbs had 67%.
6:07And B. John London and Pitts had 64%. Okay.
6:10Happens a little more than we thought it did.
6:13Well, at least last year. And, you know, for the Falcons, they didn't really add anybody.
6:19And the Eagles subtracted somebody. And I'm sorry, what was the other one?
6:23The Lions. The Lions. Who they're just going to replace one of Jamo and Gibbs with Laporta.
6:29So. Right. That's the thing. But that one's sure.
6:32More a little more complicated just because Laporta's injury.
6:35Laporta's injury opened the way for Gibbs, opened the door for Gibbs and Jamo.
6:40It's amazing looking at these teams that had two top 12 wide receivers.
6:44It's amazing that the Lions were one of them last year in overall points, PPR points.
6:50Jamison Williams was the number 12 wide receiver last year, which blows my mind.
6:55And that's kind of one of the things with per game stats is that sometimes they can be influenced by the absences of the other receiver.
7:03And sometimes guys can be top 12 for the full season because they played 17 games.
7:09Oh, yeah. All the time. Right. Yeah. Right. So it's just you have to balance the two of them.
7:15Yeah. Yeah. But you can always add context to either one of those stats.
7:20I just think it's a little easier to add context to the per game.
7:25And if you have if you have an idea of, OK, this guy can average 15 points per game.
7:31I think you recognize he's not going to do that every single week.
7:36I think you recognize there will be some weeks where he smashes and some weeks where he's, you know, four catches, 45
7:43yards and you got to suck it up. But the bottom line is that it's a better representation of what a player
7:51might be able to deliver compared to, oh, this guy scored 331 fantasy points last year.
7:56You got to do math to figure out all that other stuff.
8:00I don't know if that necessarily says anything other than the guy played a lot of games and did pretty good in those games.
8:08Well, I also think that we're making the point that if you have two teammates who had great seasons at wide receiver, it's difficult to do it again.
8:18Very. Right. Yeah. 17 wide receiver duos. I've already said that now.
8:22That's the third time. One of them repeated top 12, four of them repeated top 15.
8:27That includes last year with Chase and Higgins finishing top 13.
8:31So kind of a technicality there. They were really close.
8:35Three others repeated top 20, one repeated top 24.
8:38So that's five, eight, nine out of 17 wide receiver groups.
8:41When they both finished top 12, they finished top 24 or better the following year.
8:47And I mean, it's history. It doesn't necessarily speak to anything specifically about lamb and pickings, but it does suggest, as you
8:54just said, Adam, that it's really, really hard to do.
8:57And I think it forces fancy managers to make a choice to either ignore this piece of history or accept that it's going to be really hard.
9:07And then choose your fighter, choose which Cowboys wide receiver you'd rather have.
9:11For me, it's lamb. He was more consistent last year.
9:14He's been more consistent for fantasy. I'm willing to take the chance on him finishing as not, not just top 12, but
9:22top 10, top eight in PPR points per game versus pickings who might fall off.
9:27And that being said, yes, I moved pickings down a little bit in my rankings, but I can't find a way to
9:34get them out of the top 12 yet. Yeah.
9:38Well, I'll also say that, you know, pickings production was boosted by CD lamb missing some games.
9:43So if you, for sure, if you just look at weeks, uh, not seven, I have it.
9:49No, eight through 17, the last 10 games excluding week 18, when they only played a half on a per game basis,
9:57CD lamb was wide receiver 11 per game. And George pickings was wide receiver.
10:01No pickings was 11 per game. Lamb was 13 per game.
10:05Right. Right. But I, if you just look at the targets, lamb was on pace for 156 and pickings was on pace for 146.
10:13The problem is in those 10 games, they each caught only three touchdowns.
10:18So I think they'll do better than 13th and 11th.
10:21Cause I think they'll score more touchdowns, but I don't know what the target split will be.
10:27You know, will it be 156 for lamb and 146 for pickings?
10:31If that's the case, I'm fine. Both taking both of them where they're going, but obviously we should expect land to have more targets.
10:39And pickings targets to be worth more than lamps.
10:42Fair. Okay. Um, all right. Uh, so that's, we're starting off with that stat about the repeat wide receivers.
10:49Also wanted to mention that, you know, I got an email yesterday saying, stop talking about third down snaps for running backs.
10:56They don't, it doesn't necessarily matter just because they're on the field for third down doesn't mean they're catching passes.
11:03And it's a good point. It doesn't necessarily matter for a lot of running backs, like Quint Allen, for example.
11:10Um, but it does matter. I think for Aaron Rogers running backs, Rogers has been fourth and first in running back targets
11:17per game on third down over the last two seasons.
11:21This is my favorite, my favorite Aaron Rogers stat.
11:24Yeah. It's just what he does. And it's since the tour of Achilles and Kenneth gain.
11:29Well, Kenneth gain. Well had 32 targets in 24 catches on third down.
11:34So that's why I thought it was important that yesterday to have that conversation about who's going to be the third down back for the Steelers.
11:42Cause I, I think that's probably the most valuable going into this season.
11:47It looks like the most valuable third down role, or at least one of them in the NFL.
11:53Really interesting. There's like a million things of what does the reunion of Aaron Rogers and Mike McCarthy look like, but I
12:00did think it was interesting over the last three years, Aaron Rogers running back target rate, 23.9%, 19.3%, 20.6%.
12:07Those that's definitely high for a quarterback. Like not quite best in the league over those three years, but, but maybe one
12:14of the years it was, but definitely high the last three years he played with Mike McCarthy, 14.9%, 11.7%, 15.9%.
12:21Yeah. An enormous difference. Is that just because he tore the Achilles and he's not mobile.
12:27And so now he just throws to running backs or, or a lot of those third down throws going to go to Michael Pittman.
12:35No, I think, I think he just doesn't, I think it's an old age problem.
12:40I don't think he wants to get beat up anymore.
12:43And that might be because of what happened with the Achilles, not the Achilles injury happened because of fierce hits that he took.
12:51I mean, it happened as soon as the season started practically, but I think as you see with older quarterbacks and older
12:59players in general, man, it's, they feel a little bit different when you, uh, when you take on a hit from somebody who's 15 years younger than you.
13:08And I think that's what it is for Rogers.
13:11And that's why he's getting the ball out quick.
13:14And I think that'll continue. All right. Last stat on that.
13:18If you just want to maybe look at Rogers with the jets.
13:22Okay. Coming off the torn Achilles, the first six games of the season, Brees Hall was on pace for 96 targets.
13:29Then they traded for Devante Adams. Now they have Wilson and Adams.
13:33Is that the same as Pittman and, and, uh, and Metcalf?
13:37No, but they led, I think they led the NFL pass attempts that year.
13:42So it's similar. And then Brees Hall in the last, I think he only played nine games, uh, maybe 10 games out of 11.
13:50He was on pace. He was on pace for, I think 72 targets, something like that.
13:55And he had 52 on pace for 52 catches, but you can see, I make the case.
14:01He's going to be really good. Rogers is going to be really good for his running backs to pass the game, but
14:09I'm now statistically giving a case sort of against it.
14:12And now that he has two receivers worth throwing to instead of just one last year that he might not throw at his running backs as much.
14:21He might, he might have three receivers worth throwing to.
14:25Yeah. I mean, it's possible. Um, but he just, he doesn't want to get hit.
14:30He gets the ball out super quickly. He throws the ball behind the line of scrimmage all the time.
14:36Um, you know, he'll throw to his wide receiver.
14:39His running backs just don't know how much, um, by the way, I was calling these water cooler stats.
14:46Jamie texted me and notified me last week that, um, I think it's the fantasy life newsletter has around the water cooler
14:53and they have some stats and stuff. Oh, it's not stats.
14:57It's like articles and things like that. So what do you think?
15:01Do I need to change it? Yeah. I think that certainly if, if, if one podcast is using terminology, then no other
15:08fantasy podcast can use the same terminology. We, we have a pretty exclusive rights agreement with the rest of the industry that
15:16we all agree that we get certain phrases and we don't share phrases at all.
15:21They better not use azer stats, Adam. Or maybe they should, cause then you could sue them.
15:27They won't. But Jamie said, quote, you stole it, which obviously I didn't do, but we can leave it as water cooler
15:34stats or we can go with group chat stats.
15:37Maybe you text it to your fantasy football group chat.
15:41There you go. I like that. What's worse? What is like evokes more angst amongst the listener?
15:47That's not what I'm going for. Standing around a water cooler at your place of work or being caught in a group chat.
15:54Oh, people like group chats. Oh, nobody likes group chats.
15:58I like my, I love my group chats. Thomas, we need a poll.
16:02Do you like group chat, group chats. But it needs to be okay.
16:07Because sometimes I like them and sometimes I don't.
16:10So I think it's a, it's a little, maybe it's like, do you, do you wish group chat, group chats existed?
16:17How about that? I'm good with group chats. I just don't necessarily participate in them.
16:22Comment from Mr. Scampers. I've heard another show use start or sit before.
16:26So, all right. We're going to take it. I haven't seen Mr.
16:30Scampers. Also, Mr. Scampers, I agree. That's the, that's the even worse part is like, if you are in a group chat,
16:38you can guess that half the people in it have it muted and aren't going to respond.
16:44Or it's a group chat that you don't care about and you've got it muted and you don't see this stuff.
16:51Group chats are the worst. I got so many group chats.
16:55I don't think it's worth going through this. This one group of friends I have like five different group chats for.
17:02It's pretty funny. But, all right. Listen, Beyond the Box Score, go to YouTube.com, search for Beyond the Box Score.
17:09They've got their own audio feed as well. Great content there.
17:12I think all of us are going to be making appearances on Beyond the Box Score.
17:18Jacob was listening to our, to one of our, yeah, this week for Dave.
17:22Okay, next week for me. Jacob was listening to one of our recent shows and loved our conversation about Trey McBride.
17:30And I was like, well, I talked about it for 30 minutes on our show.
17:35I'll come and talk about it for an hour on yours.
17:38So, I know we're going to do that next week.
17:42Anyway, looking forward to that. We'll take a quick break, some quick news items, and then fill in the blank when we come back.
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20:01I've got a little bit of an issue here, guys.
20:04In my commitment to the bit, I still have two cherries left.
20:08I've already made my point and we've gotten the laughs out of it, but I feel like I have to eat them.
20:16Why didn't you eat them during the break? Yeah, that's what I did.
20:20I was looking through my notes. I was getting ready for the next segment.
20:25Well, we'll have another break coming up. Okay. I don't know if I can.
20:30Why don't you come back from break and then spit out the seed on the microphone for everybody to hear?
20:37So, I think we do have a fruit salad related fill in the blank a little bit later, I guess.
20:43Yeah, we do. We'll get to that. News and notes.
20:47Mark Andrews says the Ravens offense is totally different than anything we've seen or anything we've done, he said.
20:53He also said it's a scary sight when you see Lamar Jackson adding new things to his repertoire, which is not a
21:01word I like pronouncing, by the way. But I'm wondering what this offense is going to look like.
21:07I mean, are they going to throw the ball 30 times a game?
21:11Is this bad news for Henry? Is it just good news for everyone?
21:16I made the point with you yesterday on Express, Dave, because you wrote a great article about all of the 18 new play callers that we have.
21:25That Lamar Jackson was actually incredibly good with Todd Monken.
21:28I don't even know how he could be much better.
21:32But what do you think the offense is going to look like?
21:36He was good until he got banged up last year and then the wheels came off.
21:41We all remember that in the second half of last season.
21:45We know that they're moving on from the fullback.
21:48They're going to use more tight ends. Not only is Declan Doyle a former tight ends coach, but he has really embraced
21:56the idea of using multiple tight ends. I think that's probably helping make Mark Andrews feel better about the offense and his role in it.
22:04I do think there will be a little bit more creativity, a little bit more play action passing, more passing overall.
22:11And the way Lamar has thrown when he's been healthy the last few years has been really impressive.
22:17And then you tack on what he might be able to do, scrambling, designed runs on top of it.
22:24And there's a really good case to be made that he could be not the first QB off the board.
22:31I think Josh Allen's earned that title, but the second QB off the board, I can kind of dig into that a
22:38little bit, especially with Miles Garrett out of the division.
22:42Now two fewer games without him. Dude, I think that there could be some really good games ahead for Lamar Jackson, even
22:49though Declan Doyle is a first year play caller.
22:52So that's always something that you've got to be worried about.
22:56He is the second quarterback off the board on fantasy pros on draft sharks, but a decent amount behind Josh Allen.
23:03So there's a discount there. Pretty big news with the lions.
23:07They released cornerback Terry and Arnold, who was arrested last week on charges of arm robbery and kidnapping.
23:13And he's a good player. He's a first round pick the stats with him on and off the field last year.
23:20They're not dramatically different. They're a little worse with him off the field.
23:24He missed half the season. He only played eight games.
23:28Some of the games he left early anyway, but you know, I've talked about this a lot.
23:34Each of the last two years, the lions have started out, not really throwing the ball that much.
23:40And then their defense falling apart and they've thrown the ball a ton.
23:44So this is a, this is a big blow to their defense and jets rookie tight end.
23:50Kenyon Sadiq is expected to be ready for training camp.
23:53He had hernia surgery and hopefully back pretty soon.
23:56Okay, let's do it. Fill in the blank. I want to thank our Twitter and Facebook audience for giving us these fill in the blanks.
24:05First one comes from Jovan in a best case scenario.
24:08Christian Watson will finish as wide receiver blank. Like where amongst the wide receivers?
24:13What else would it be? Or like a top 24 wide receiver or wide receiver two.
24:18I'm not sure what Jovan's looking for. Yeah, yeah.
24:22Like he'll finish his best case scenario. Top half top number two wide receiver.
24:26Let's say wide receiver 16 overall. I was going to say that.
24:30Dave Jinx. It's so hard. Like what? What? In a Matt LaFleur, like best case scenario is still supposed to be somewhat
24:38like within the realm of possibility, right? Yeah. So in a Matt LaFleur offense, what is the best case scenario for a wide receiver's total number of targets?
24:47Well, let's. Is it more than that we've ever seen?
24:51I broke it down, actually. Sort of. Remember, best case scenario for Christian Watson.
24:56From weeks 11 through 17, he had a 23.5% target share.
24:59Um, and he did that. 15.1 PPR points per game.
25:03I did that. He did that while running only 69.1% of the routes.
25:07But a 23.5% target share. That's a very good target per out run rate.
25:12He left one of those games early with an injury.
25:15When he came back the next two weeks, he was somewhat limited.
25:19But still, 23.5% target share. What does that look like in the Jordan Love era?
25:24Over the last three seasons, based on the amount of pass attempts the Packers have had, a 23.5% target share would have been 137, 113, and 115 targets.
25:34Considering Watson was a top 20 wide receiver last year, and he was only on pace for 94 targets.
25:40If he gets 115 targets, this has been a guy who's been one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL.
25:48He's going to say he hasn't done it on that many targets.
25:52That's 100% true. But if he gets 115 targets, I think the best case scenario is even better than wide receiver 16.
25:59Well, if you believe, like last year he had 55 targets, averaged 11.1 yards per target.
26:05And scored six times on 55 targets. So, yes, if he had 130 targets and scored 15 touchdowns on those 130 targets
26:12and averaged 11 yards per target, he would be the best wide receiver in fantasy football.
26:18I said 115 targets. I don't think he's going to get 130.
26:22He had a 15.5-yard ADOT. No one's getting 130 targets with that.
26:26Few people are getting 130. I'd probably say wide receiver 20.
26:30You know what? He has 17.8 ADOT. Yeah, sorry.
26:33That week 11 through 17 stretch when he had the high target share was 15.5.
26:38Yeah, that's high. But he still managed to get it done.
26:42Very up and down production in those weeks. There were three games where he was under 10 PPR points per game and
26:49four where he had at least 18 PPR points per game.
26:53So, boom-bust nature. I feel a little uncomfortable saying that he could be top 12, but let's say he stays healthy in
27:00the theory that you laid out, Adam. Yeah, he could do it.
27:04He could do it. So, I'm going to change my answer.
27:08I'm going to say top 12 wide receiver. Wide receiver 12 exactly.
27:12I think when you look at his profile, pretty similar player to Alec Pierce.
27:17And I think those two guys have been first and second in yards per target and yards per catch the last two years.
27:25And fantasy pros right now, Christian Watson is going 54th and Alec Pierce is going 82nd.
27:30Pierce is injured right now, so that's part of it.
27:34But you think about that, you want a little bit of a Christian Watson discount.
27:39It might be Alec Pierce. 54th seems a little bit rich.
27:43That's exactly where I have him in my top 200.
27:46And I get it. I agree with you, Heath.
27:49It's rich for a dude who's had so many injuries.
27:52But last year and in previous years, he's been a very high touchdown guy.
27:57He makes those splash plays. What about the idea of, all right, I'm nervous about drafting Christian Watson because I know he can miss some games.
28:06Could I also pair him with Matthew Golden later in the draft?
28:10Do the Acer friendship strategy? That's another term that in other podcasts isn't allowed to use, friendship strategy.
28:16Where you lock up, theoretically, the number one wide receiver on the Packers.
28:21Yeah, except that you do have the risk that it's just another Matt LaFleur offense.
28:26And Christian Watson has 98 targets and Matthew Golden has 87 and Tucker Graff has 86.
28:31And that's just what they've done. Yeah. But there was a six-game sample where Christian Watson got a 23% target share.
28:38So. I think. And Tucker Graff was out. Taking out Dobbs and Wicks, I think, helps people buy into the Packers passing game a little bit more.
28:47Maybe there will be a little bit more concentration among the targets between Watson and Golden and Kraft.
28:54And Jaden Reed, we can't forget about him, too.
28:57He's probably going to see an uptick as well.
29:00Well, I don't mind taking the chance on Watson.
29:03I think he does have huge upside, as we just talked about.
29:07Okay. You know what I think a good episode topic will be?
29:11Is let's look at ADPs of players on the same team and figure out who's the best value.
29:17Kyron Williams or Blake Corum? Christian Watson or Jaden Reed or Matthew Golden?
29:22That kind of stuff. Yeah, great idea, Adam. All right.
29:25Michael Patrick, fill in the blank. Blank will jump from outside a top 12 pick this year to a top five pick next year.
29:33That's an easy one. I can think of three young running backs that you can make the case for.
29:40Who? Gentie, Hampton. Gentie, Hampton, and Jeremiah Love. Heath, is that where you were going with?
29:45I was thinking Jeremiah Love, but yeah, Gentie. I mean, one of Gentie or Hampton might be a top 12 pick this year.
29:53No, but you're saying top. Oh, yeah, but it will be a top five next year.
29:58Right, but if they're inside the top 12 this year, they don't qualify, right?
30:03Yes. According to Michael Patrick's fill in the blank.
30:06Correct. Yeah, I would say Jeremiah Love's probably the answer.
30:09Okay. If he's the answer, then we should be a lot more interested in drafting him.
30:15Well, okay, I should clarify. The answer is probably blank because no one does.
30:20Well, I also think that Jeremiah Love could have a year where he's not that great for fantasy, but he shows us
30:27enough, and then Connor's gone next year, and then it's like wheels up, kind of big ADP boost.
30:33ADP. ADP. ADP. All right, this is from Eric.
30:36What happens after the cherries? Oh, man. Sorry. Can you talk for a second so I can queue up my Eric sound?
30:44Eric's got a question. Fill in the blank. Blank will be a post-type sleeper.
30:49Yeah. Who's a post-type sleeper, guys? Someone who failed to live up to the expected jump, but now we're going to get something.
30:56Well, Watson would qualify for that, would he not?
30:59Yeah. Quentin Johnston. No, you can't answer him. We have a Chargers question later.
31:04Next. Can I say the 2025 rookie running back class?
31:08Oh, that's a good one. Yeah. Henderson especially. Yeah.
31:11I suggested Ricky Pearsall. In his career, Ricky Pearsall has seven or more targets in six games.
31:16Yeah. He has 85 yards or more in five of those six games, and in the other one, he had six catches, 69 yards, and a touchdown.
31:26Yep. He's really good per target. Last year, super high, very high ADOT.
31:30Not super high, but 14.1 yard ADOT. He would fall into that sacrificial X category last year.
31:36I wonder if Mike Evans does more of the downfield stuff, and Pearsall can get back to like a 10, 11-yard ADOT.
31:43He's definitely on the Christian Watts and Alec Pierce spectrum.
31:47Yes. Yes. And you can get them later than those guys.
31:50But I don't know. I don't know. What do you mean by that?
31:55Boom bust wide receiver three who could win you a week and could go a month without topping 50 yards.
32:02Yeah. Or could put it all together and have a really good year.
32:06If everyone's healthy, I think Pearsall's probably not going to matter much.
32:10But everyone being healthy is George Kittle coming off an ACL, Mike Evans at age 32 or 33, and Christian McCaffrey at
32:18age 30 coming off a 400-touch season. And so maybe the young guy, who's always hurt, by the way, can stay healthy.
32:25How many of those guys played more games than Ricky Pierce all last year?
32:30Yeah. All right. Ghost Kerrigan says, the Chargers receiver that will thrive the most under Mike McDaniel's system is blank.
32:37Oh, so you're expecting this answer to be Quentin Jones?
32:40No, whatever you want. I think it's Ladd McConkie.
32:43Route running, versatility, good hands, after-catch ability. He's already shown it to us over the past two seasons, just more so as
32:51a rookie when there wasn't as much target competition.
32:54And there's still going to be a lot of target competition.
32:57But for what McDaniel's looking for from this offense, I think McConkie is a great fit.
33:03Yeah. At its best, from my view, the Mike McDaniel offense is creating explosives.
33:08And I think Quentin Johnston's much better at creating explosives than Ladd McConkie is.
33:12How many of those explosives were created by not Tyreek Hill and not Jalen Waddle?
33:18And maybe that's an unfair question because those two guys, I mean, he had them, he used them.
33:24They put up some huge numbers, Tyreek, especially. I don't think he's got a Tyreek Hill on his team right now.
33:31Maybe he's got a Jalen Waddle. But, but if we're just saying like, who's the fast guy, Ladd McConkie slow.
33:38I, I wouldn't say slow. Is Ladd McConkie faster than Quentin Johnson?
33:42I think he's quicker than Quentin Johnston. He's definitely quicker and he can definitely change directions faster.
33:47And he's got better hands. Well, he ran a better 40.
33:51I mean, I think anyway, Quentin Johnson ran a four, five, two.
33:55Uh, let's see what that's not very good. I thought, I thought he was faster than that.
34:01Well, that's, you know, four, three, nine for Ladd McConkie.
34:04There was, um, there was a report, not a report, but like a speculation from a writer.
34:10It said, Quentin Johnson is going to benefit because he's going to, he's been miscast as this Mike Williams X receiver.
34:17And Mike McDaniel is going to use him more on shorter stuff.
34:21And he's going to excel after the catch. I'm surprised that the report, I'm surprised.
34:27I'm sorry, Dave. I'm surprised the reporter picked Quentin Johnston for that.
34:31Cause I really think Ladd McConkie is better at that.
34:34Then Quentin Johnston is. Yeah. So what, what does this, and maybe it means nothing, but in their careers, both Ladd McConkie
34:42and Quentin Johnston average 4.7 yak per reception. Johnston's had an a dot two yards higher than Ladd McConkie.
34:48Mm-hmm. Yeah. I don't know. I can tell you that in terms of explosives, if you look at McConkie's rookie year, he
34:56was like off the charts, making big plays. Um, I just think he's better than Quentin Johnston, but that, that doesn't mean that Johnston's not the better value.
35:05Cause obviously you're all taking Conkie ahead of Johnston, right?
35:08Yeah. Who's the better value? Oh, I think Johnston's the better value for sure.
35:13I don't, I'm not drafting Ladd because he's going before I'll draft him.
35:18Gotcha. Where's he going? round four is a guess.
35:21Three, four turn. Quentin Johnston. I'm good with that.
35:24In PPR, I'm good with that. Uh, all right.
35:27Next up from stumble bumble. And by the way, if, if I, I'm sorry, someone said in the chat, if I said Kittle tours ACL, I am.
35:36I, my bad. It was his Achilles. Uh, stumble bumble says blank will blank and people will be blank, blank, blank will blank.
35:44And people will be blank, blank. Stumble bumble. We'll ask a weird fill in the blank and people will be, uh, clueless with what to do with it.
35:53So I have one here. That, that, or that, you have one.
35:57I've got one. Okay, go ahead. Uh, Kyler Murray will win the starting job in Minnesota and people will be talking about him as a top 12 quarterback.
36:07I guess my only issue is, is anyone in the world not think Kyler Murray is not, is going to win the,
36:14well, I, I actually was on the, uh, the football guys dynasty podcast with Jeff Bell last night.
36:21And we talked about this because, and this was kind of a joke on Twitter, like the AJ Brown thing.
36:27Everybody knew he was going to be traded to the Patriots, but as soon as he was traded to the Patriots, his value shot up.
36:36Everybody expected that Rashi rice was going to get out of jail after 30 days.
36:41Cause that's how long his sentence was. But as soon as people saw him walking out of jail, his ADP shot back
36:48up, everybody pretty much expects Kyler Murray to win the starting job in Minnesota.
36:53But as soon as he wins the starting job in Minnesota, we're going to see a bunch of articles about, do you remember how much Kyler runs?
37:02And now he's got Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
37:05Kyler Murray could be a top 12 quarterback. Yeah.
37:08Okay. I accept it. So I'm going to throw one out that I don't necessarily believe, but I just want to see how you guys feel about it.
37:18This is a player that I feel like has fallen into this black hole of never being talked about on our show.
37:26Blank will blank. And people will be blank. Blank.
37:29Javante Williams will struggle and people will be adding Jaden blue.
37:32What do you think? I don't really think I believe that Javante Williams is going to struggle, but I do think that you're right.
37:40There was some talk early in the off season about how they were done with Jaden blue.
37:46And now it sounds like now what I'm reading and Dave, maybe you've seen something else.
37:52It's the Cowboys really want blue to be their RB too, but he, he can't be as bad as he was last camp.
38:00I think they want him to be the RB too, because he offers some speed that they don't have from any of their other running backs.
38:08Someone's suggesting Dan saying, Jeremiah love will split carries and people will be mad.
38:13Sure. Yeah, but we're expecting that to a degree.
38:16Yeah. It just depends on how much, how many carries he'll split.
38:20Okay. All right. Let's take a break. The fantasy football today will go to break and people will be very patient.
38:27And Adam will eat his cherries after this or during this.
38:31Hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break, but not just any break.
38:37This is a refreshing break with Snapple. We all know about Snapple's iconic real facts.
38:42So let's take a minute to go over some of my faves.
38:46Snapple real fact, one nine eight three. The first player drafted to play pro football, never played in the league.
38:53Snapple real fact, one one one nine. The grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs.
38:59Snapple real fact, two zero six four. The first college football game broadcast on TV was on September 30th, 1939.
39:0639 Snapple real fact, one eight nine six. The tradition of playing football on Thanksgiving originated with college football in 1876.
39:13So grab a Snapple, take a second and enjoy the moment because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day.
39:21Snapple, make your break more interesting. All right, now let's get back to the show.
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40:25Delicious, delicious commercial break. Kaden says, Blank will greatly outperform their ADP, and nobody will be surprised.
40:31Pick an old guy. Mahomes, Devontae, Mike Evans, Kelsey.
40:34Would you really be surprised if any of those guys finished top 12 at their position?
40:39I think, based on conversations we've had on this show, that maybe our favorite ADP is Isaiah Likely's.
40:45He's going 125th overall, according to Fantasy Pros, and 113th overall on Draft Sharks.
40:5095th on CBS, but tight end 13 for likely on Fantasy Pros and Draft Sharks.
40:55I feel like that's kind of like the FFT guy right now, and just one of the best values.
41:01Okay. Sure. I think some people would be surprised if he outperformed his ADP.
41:06When it's a name you know that's going later in drafts because of the Grandma Gilmore rule, and then they end up
41:14overcoming it, you're not going to be surprised. You're going to be like, yeah, I should have just drafted the really good player.
41:22Bill Van Sickle says, blank is the worst possible addition to any fruit salad, and the answer is bananas.
41:28At Dave Richard is disgusting. The fact that he called me disgusting for liking bananas really shocked me.
41:34I've always believed that bananas were very popular. You see them at every single buffet table that you go to.
41:41Not that you guys go to a lot of buffets, but I mean, look at me, you know I do.
41:48But they're not in a fruit salad, Dave. They're whole and appeal.
41:52I have seen them in a fruit salad, and the problem with them in a fruit salad is bananas, when sliced and
41:59mixed with other fruit and sit there for any period of time at all, they don't last like the other fruit does.
42:07They're going to start turning a little bit brown.
42:10They're going to get a little bit mushy. The rest of your fruit's going to taste like mushy banana.
42:16I think banana is a fruit that should be eaten on its own.
42:21How long is your fruit salad party for that to happen?
42:24Are we talking like an 18-hour layout? I've seen bananas laid out in a fruit salad, and they don't turn brown and mushy.
42:32So first of all, I mean, your takes on fruit salad have been necessarily agreed with all of them, but they've been really good.
42:40I mean, you didn't expect me to have a lot of fruit salad takes, did you?
42:46Not really. I mean, you really get like analytical about this.
42:50It's great. However, you say mushy instead of mushy, and that is interesting to me, and that I think is wrong.
42:57I think you lose points for pronunciation there. We should have a fruit salad tournament.
43:02We do have a fruit salad poll on YouTube, and it's pretty close.
43:06Oh, no, we have a group chat poll. Never mind.
43:10Do you like group chats? Yes, 54%. No, I'm with Heath, 46%.
43:14Okay. Thank you to Thomas for not putting yes, I'm with Adam, because there's no way that would have been winning.
43:21Um, but yeah, pretty close there with the group chats.
43:24All right. Look, I think, I think banana is fine in a, uh, in a fruit salad, Dave.
43:30It's, it's not the worst possible addition. I think grapefruit is because grapefruit's like a practical joke.
43:36It's not really a fruit. It's just horrible. Yeah.
43:39That doesn't belong in a fruit salad, but you, you put bananas with, with strawberries and you've got a delectable treat that everybody would enjoy.
43:48And not a banana milkshake. It's my go. Hell yeah.
43:51Back in the day. Yeah. That's the Sonic. Yeah.
43:54Oh yeah. And think about all the other things you could do with bananas, banana splits, banana smoothies.
44:00You can add it to your protein shake. And by the way, and it's the commercials.
44:06No, then I know a thing or two about those.
44:09Sam, Sam Davis, one of our other producers, Sam Davis, the third, he put up the YouTube poll about salads, about the group chat.
44:17Sorry. So Sam, thank you for not putting my name on the yes option.
44:22All right. We got a few more fill in the blanks.
44:26One is from James and he has four different fill in the blanks.
44:30So James says blank will outperform his ADP the most at tight end.
44:35And blank will be the biggest disappointment at tight end.
44:38It's probably likely in McBride. I, I suppose, I think pits can be a pretty big disappointment.
44:44We've seen that plenty of times throughout his career.
44:47Uh, where's Fannin's ADP? Fannin is tight end seven going 95th.
44:51Yeah, that that's, he can outperform that. And, uh, I think likely is a good one.
44:56I think Chigo Conquo could be a good one to outperform ADP.
45:00But he, tight end seems kind of deep this year with this next guy that I'm going to talk about as being a disappointment.
45:08I, I don't hate where he's going necessarily overall, but among tight ends, Tucker craft as tight end five little nerve wracking
45:16for me, but 80, 80 second overall, not bad.
45:19If you knew he was going to be okay, like he's participating in training camp looks fine.
45:25Would you change that opinion? Not really. Um, because you know what I'm going to say?
45:30I say the same thing every time. It's like, yeah, he's playing, he's, he's looks good, whatever.
45:36But when he's actually on the field, we don't know that he's going to be the same until the following year.
45:43Uh, I will say though, that everything we saw from Christian Watson last year, we talked about him a half hour ago,
45:51whatever he was coming off a torn ACL. It's true.
45:54There have actually been, as I dug into it a little bit and looked at guys coming off major injuries, there have
46:01been more success stories than, than I was aware of.
46:05So it does make me feel like I'm too low.
46:08If I'm just ruling out guys coming off serious injuries, they, sometimes they are better than, than I think.
46:15Um, so yeah, that's keep that in mind, but craft, like I expect craft to be, it could be at some point in training camp full go.
46:24Sure. Uh, I just don't know that he, he, he is another guy.
46:28He was on pace for like 90 targets or something like that.
46:32If that, I don't even know. Um, you know, he was a little unsustainable.
46:37All right. Next one from James blank will be this year's Brian Thomas, Jr.
46:42Highly touted young wide receiver who totally disappears. Hopefully nobody totally disappears.
46:46I don't think Ted a roll will totally disappear.
46:49I don't think a buco will do what he did at the end of last year.
46:55Doesn't have to be a, a second year, a second year guy.
46:59Well, where does Luther burden fall on this list?
47:02Are we sure he's just gonna be a house of fire right from the jump?
47:07He, he could disappoint just thinking about how, how many other players are getting targets in Chicago.
47:13Um, is Malik neighbors considered young? Yes. Yes. Could he disappoint coming off of a torn ACL plus other stuff?
47:19Yes. Yeah. I don't, I don't want it to be any of the second year guys, but if I was looking for
47:27the profile that was most similar to Brian Thomas, Jr.
47:30It might be a book. A book actually had a higher aid on as a rookie than Brian Thomas, Jr.
47:37Did. If, if he just is, if Chris Godwin takes that slot role and has the easy targets and a book is
47:45working more downfield, it could be, and he's already been banged up and we've seen injuries impact him a little bit in his career.
47:53If he gets a little banged up and he's running 16 yards downfield every play.
47:58Yeah. Um, okay. Actually a good point. Yeah. Next up, but, but we expect a different role for a book.
48:05Right. Dave. I mean, that's kind of, I think he'll do more than just be the downfield guy.
48:11I think they're, I think they're going to use them in every way possible.
48:15Whereas Godwin and I think Heath is actually dead on on this, which made me appreciate the point is that Godwin will
48:23go back to the slot and be a short area target, a check down guy, uh, you know, an easy button as it were for Baker Mayfield.
48:32But I think a book is going to get a couple of layup targets and a couple of long ball targets every week too.
48:40All right. Let's go to our next one. Kirk cousins will start blank games in Las Vegas before passing the torch to Fernando Mendoza.
48:48I'm going to say week 14. Whoa. That's after their bye week.
48:53They'll be at home. There are, they have a lot of easy matchups early in the year.
48:58And then in the middle of the year, right when you might think that they would turn to Mendoza, they've, I think
49:06there's like one game against the jets in there, but there's a ton of tough matchups.
49:11I will, I will buy you. I will buy you a bunch of bananas done for two straight months.
49:18Done. Uh, if, if he's starting in week 14 or I guess week 13 or whatever week, 13 is there by, okay.
49:25If Kirk cousins is still starting at week 12 and Fernando Mendoza is healthy, one bunch of bananas per week for two months.
49:33And I don't have to give you anything in return.
49:36Nope. I feel very, first of all, bananas, what?
49:39$2, uh, two 50. So banana costs. No, a bunch of bananas is like two.
49:45Now you're talking about buying 15 bunches of bananas.
49:48All right. So that's like 10 weeks. So it could be like half your paycheck, 25, $30 here.
49:54I'll, I'll, I'll give my bold prediction week two Raiders.
49:57Kirk cousins is a disaster week one and the Raiders lose to the dolphins.
50:02And they just really pivot at home. And they're like, Oh, I mean, I think if it's that, if it's that close
50:09to being, that's the game of the week. Yeah.
50:12If it's that close between cousins and Mendoza, I think they start Mendoza week one.
50:18What better matchup for them than home against the dolphins for Fernando Mendoza to get his feet wet.
50:24It does not get easier than the Miami dolphins this year.
50:27All right. The last running back I'm comfortable having as my RB one is blank.
50:33Kyron Williams, Brees hall going right around there. Yeah.
50:36That's the range. Yeah. They're back to back on fantasy pros.
50:39Then Javante. Oh, Travis H. And I'd be fine with him.
50:43Hmm. Hmm. Like Camara is going to stick around.
50:46Isn't he? Maybe. I don't know. I don't like how many carries is Alvin Camara going to get?
50:52Very few. What, what if, what if he just takes the targets?
50:56That's the thing. Like he, how many, you know, that many running backs.
51:01I'm sorry, Dave, there aren't that many running backs are getting a lot of catches these days.
51:07So when you compare to Travis, ETN, Travis, HN to Kyron Williams, who's going to get more catches, probably HN with or without Camara.
51:15I have a chance predicted for four more catches than Kyron.
51:18Yeah. With or without Camara, the States can live with or without Camara.
51:23One of my favorite songs. the Camara, the Camara version, uh, from Bryn.
51:27Our last one is from Bryn. Bryn has three, the first tight, the, so many tight end ones.
51:33The first tight end I'm targeting is blank. Whichever one presents good value.
51:38No, but what, well, I'm not really targeting any one guy.
51:42I think my answer has to be Laporta. Cause he goes before pits.
51:46Usually I'm not targeting anyone specific tight end. I'm sorry.
51:49Yes, you are. Blank is the value wide receiver that I'm hoping to sneak away with.
51:55I got two. Okay. Parker Washington, Wondell Robinson, and they're the same kind of profile, short area receivers, high volume.
52:02I'm, I'm playing the fantasy game, not the who looks good in highlights game.
52:06I will say Terry McLaurin and Quentin Johnston. Yeah.
52:09I was going to say Quentin Johnston and on a high end, AJ Brown for me.
52:15You guys are going to steam up Quentin Johnston into round six.
52:19No, there's going to be some disappointed people. Uh, for my rookie draft, I should open up spots on my roster.
52:26Uh, blank. The draft happens. Oh, I get it.
52:29I get it. For my rookie drafts. I should open up spots on my roster.
52:34Blank. The draft happens after. Oh, ask Dan how that turned out for him.
52:39I would say the answers before. Oh man, that's great stuff.
52:43All right. Whatever is the least amount of work for the commissioner.
52:47Or you just don't have a rookie draft like Adam.
52:50That's true. There will be a rookie draft. I just, you know, the season is 10 weeks away or something like that.
52:58I only know that because is that right? That's sound right.
53:0210 and a half. Yeah. 10 weeks. Two days.
53:05I saw Scott Hanson tweet. I'll see you in 11 Sundays or something.
53:09I was like, Oh wow. It's coming up. How dumb.
53:12What a dumb thing to do. Tweet how many Sundays there are before the football season.
53:18I never see your tweets. Did he steal that from you, Dave?
53:22Yeah. Everybody stole it from me. It's why I don't do it anymore.
53:26Let's check in on our, uh, our fruit salad poll.
53:30It's not a fruit salad poll. Well, it's not.
53:33Yeah, dude, it's a group chat. Nope. There's a new one.
53:37It's a fruit salad poll now. Uh, uh, pick your ideal fruit for a fruit salad, bananas, cherries, strawberries, or grapes.
53:44This is very lopsided. I didn't say bananas were the best one.
53:48I would say strawberries. The answer I would too.
53:51I was going to say strawberries, but I feel like I listed grapes first yesterday on the show.
53:57So I felt obligated to pick grapes, uh, which came in second place to strawberries, which has 63% of the vote.
54:04Good. Uh, bananas though above cherries. That's the good news.
54:08Of course. Cherries are the worst. I think we established yesterday.
54:11The worst. I mean, they're great fruit. They're just bad for a fruit salad.
54:16Right? Because you have to eat fruit salad in public.
54:19You can't eat fruit salad in private. Exactly. What other show can help you win your fantasy leagues and help you set
54:27up a kick-ass fruit salad at your picnic? We have some more fill in the blanks from Wisco Disco.
54:33Blank is the worst type of bagel. Hmm. Sesame.
54:36Dry. What is that? A bagel without butter. A bagel without butter.
54:41Oh, right. Uh, yeah. I think like a chocolate chip bagel is revolting.
54:45A blueberry bagel is revolting. Oh, I love blueberry.
54:48Blueberry bagel with peanut butter. Mm. Mm. I'm willing to try it.
54:52I'm willing to try it. I'd be willing to try it too, but that's a contender for disgusting bagel sandwich.
54:59Yeah. I'll try it this week. I might try it today.
55:03Uh, Jeremiah. Uh, this is from the blank will blank and people will blank blank.
55:08Jeremiah level. Oh, we did that one. I'm sorry.
55:11Uh, this was from, this is from, uh, this is one of our tight end ones.
55:16Uh, Chigo Conquo will outperform his ADP. Yeah. We mentioned him.
55:20Does he have one? Yeah. I think he's in the tight end 15, 16 range.
55:25He's another name. That's going to steam up once training camp opens and the reports come out of Washington.
55:32It will really help him. If I do, does not end up with the commanders.
55:37Yeah. I think the commanders would be certifiable right now.
55:40If they like, like Brad, I think is not putting out a good audition tape these days.
55:46No, it's almost tampering. Are we going to argue, are we going to have a Greg Dulcich versus Chigo Conquo disagreement on the show?
55:54You might get there at some point. I do like Dulcich a lot.
55:58Yeah, baby. I like them both. Uh, I did not go to the store just for the cherries bit to answer your question.
56:06I went to the store the other day and bought cherries and they're great.
56:11It's almost like I don't want the show to end.
56:14We're having too much fun, but I'm going to end it here.
56:18Uh, Oh, also 9am tomorrow. Right? Yep. Well, how about 1130 AM today in like an hour and a half?
56:25Hell yeah. Matthew Rupert from the couch scouts coming on to talk about dynasty rankings, risers and fallers.
56:31He's also a big, um, Debbie guy. So going to ask him a little couple of questions about the 27 class and
56:39like what college players we should be watching early this season to kind of determine if those 27 picks are going to
56:46really be as good as we thought they are.
56:49Okay. Listen, if he, if he says water cooler stats, I'm going to come on the show and give him a piece of bye-bye.
56:58It'd be fantastic. All right. Uh, for Dave and Heath and Thomas and Sam, I'm Adam.
57:03Talk to you tomorrow, 9am Eastern on fantasy football today.
57:06See ya. Podcasts. What is Toyota affordability? It's buying smart.
57:10Right now, your local Toyota dealer has great deals available on some of the most reliable trucks on the market, like the
57:17off-road ready Tacoma, rugged full-size Tundra, and the legendary 4Runner, each with the space, tech, and features to handle it all, from the work site to the trails.
57:27It means driving for less, with efficient hybrid options available, extending your overall driving range, and delivering great MPGs, meaning bigger savings at the pump without sacrificing power.
57:36And it means trading for more. The Tacoma and Tundra are ranked number one and number two in resale value over all
57:44vehicles, according to Kelly Blue Book, which can mean thousands more than average when it's time to trade in.
57:50That's Toyota affordability. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
57:54Shop toyota.com or your local dealer for deals and details.
57:58Vehicle's projected resale value is specific to the 2026 model year.
58:02For more information, visit kellybluebookskbb.com. Toyota brand average resale value is 53% versus the average vehicle at 40%.
58:08Toyota, let's go places.