PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Regression Candidates for 2026! Stafford, McCaffrey, McBride, & More! (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 9 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 2, 2026
Published
Tue, June 2, 2026
18
Player insights
10
Players mentioned
Topics
Davante AdamsTrevor LawrenceChristian McCaffreyMatthew StaffordBrian Thomas Jr.Drake MayeJaxon Smith-NjigbaTerrance FergusonTrey McBrideTucker Kraft
Player analysis
Player insights
Brian Thomas Jr.
PositiveBreakout0:48
Brian Thomas Jr. has bounce-back potential after a disappointing season marred by injuries, and he is viewed as the best wide receiver option for the Jaguars.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection0:29
Christian McCaffrey's target volume is likely to regress from last year's 129 targets, especially with an improved receiving core that may reduce his role in the passing game.
Insight pageNegativeInjury0:31
At 30 years old, McCaffrey's workload raises concerns about his durability, especially after a heavy usage season.
Insight pageDavante Adams
NegativeProjection0:40
Devante Adams is likely to regress from his 14 touchdowns last season, especially given his low average of 53 receiving yards per game.
Insight pageNegativeDepth Chart0:41
The Rams' thin receiving core raises concerns for Devante Adams, as they may need to add another veteran receiver to improve the situation.
Insight pageNegativeProjection0:43
Devante Adams may struggle to score eight or more touchdowns this season, and if his touchdown total drops to six or seven, it could significantly impact his fantasy value.
Insight pageNegativeUsage0:43
Adams had the highest average depth of target of his career last year, which likely contributed to a low catch rate, and there are concerns about his efficiency in the upcoming season.
Insight pagePositiveUsage2:21
Devante Adams had the highest average depth of target (aDOT) of his career at 14.3 yards, indicating that the team is attempting more downfield plays with him.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection0:25
Drake May had an impressive season with 8.9 yards per attempt and a 72% completion rate, but regression is expected in both yards per attempt and touchdown rate.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveProjection0:45
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected for around 18 fantasy points per game, which is solid, but there are concerns about regression given the team's low passing volume and changes in coaching.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection0:17
Matthew Stafford is likely to experience touchdown regression after throwing 46 touchdowns last year, as historical data shows quarterbacks with a 7% touchdown rate typically see a dip of 4.4 fantasy points the following year.
Insight pagePositiveValue0:48
Stafford's current average draft position reflects his status as a late-round quarterback, but his past performance suggests he may not replicate last year's success.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
PositiveBreakout0:42
Terrence Ferguson has the potential to be a breakout candidate if he were on a different team, indicating his talent is being overshadowed by the depth at tight end on his current roster.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveProjection0:06
Trevor Lawrence had nine rushing touchdowns last year, but with a new offensive coordinator, he may see a decrease in rushing touchdowns moving forward.
Insight pagePositiveRole0:21
With a less established running back group behind him, Lawrence may have more design runs and opportunities to rush, which could boost his fantasy value.
Insight pagePositiveProjection0:22
Trevor Lawrence finished as the number one quarterback in fantasy over the last seven games of the season, averaging 31 fantasy points per game and on pace for 44 passing touchdowns.
Insight pageTrey McBride
NegativeProjection0:53
Trey McBride is expected to experience target regression this season, potentially losing 2-4 fantasy points per game due to changes in the offensive scheme and a decrease in pass attempts.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveProjection0:01
Tucker Kraft's efficiency has been impressive, but there are concerns about whether he can maintain his production levels without consistent target volume.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing and Bubba Wallace.
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0:55This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
0:59It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet!
1:04Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:07We're talking about regression candidates on Fantasy Football Today here on Tuesday, June 2nd.
1:12And what does that mean? Players that are going to regress to the mean.
1:16Matthew Stafford threw 46 touchdown passes last year. He's probably not going to do that, although that was his second season out of five with the Rams.
1:25With a 6.8% touchdown rate or better. He's 6.8% touchdown rate is pretty good, huh?
1:30It's exceptional, and one of the worst parts about this show is that it does sometimes turn into, yeah, this awesome thing that someone just did.
1:38They can't do that again. But it's usually right.
1:41By the way, it was 6.8% in 2021. It was 7.7% Stafford's touchdown rate last year.
1:46Trey McBride and all those targets. Can he repeat it?
1:49Well, he has led—he's been first or second at the position in target per outrun rate three straight years.
1:55JSN, where's the regression there? Brees Hall. Brees Hall, three straight seasons of 16 to 17 games.
2:01He never scored more than five rushing touchdowns. Can we finally do better than that?
2:06You just heard from Heath. Good morning, Jamie. Good morning.
2:09Isn't it nice that we don't have to talk about A.J.
2:12Brown on this podcast? I mean, you're assuming everybody listened to yesterday's show?
2:17Yeah, everyone did. And if you didn't, go do it now.
2:20We did a bonus podcast, yeah. Jamie, what do you think about Miles Garrett going to the Rams?
2:26So he's 30 years old, and A.J. Brown is 29.
2:29And Miles Garrett fetched—the Browns got Jared Verse, a very good young pass rusher, a 2027 first, a 2028 second, and a 2029 third.
2:37Whereas the Patriots only gave up a fifth-round pick this year and a first-round pick in 2028.
2:42So quite a haul for the Browns. What do you think about that trade?
2:47I think it's great for both sides. You know, the Browns are obviously building for 2027 and beyond.
2:52And Jared Verse is going to be, I think, a big part of that.
2:57He was a big part of what the Rams accomplished last year.
3:01I think in the case of the Rams, you know, they are all in.
3:05And it makes a ton of sense for them to not only—look, they not only got Miles Garrett, I think we forget
3:12they also got Trent McDuffie this offseason too. So it's a pretty good defense that just got a lot better.
3:19And I think the storyline for us is, at least what's coming out of Los Angeles, is now they may delay the
3:26extensions for some guys, the biggest one being Puka Nakua, who they may have delayed anyway because of what happened this offseason.
3:33But do we have maybe a contract situation to worry about now if Nakua is going to— hey, I did everything I
3:40was supposed to do, rehab, all this stuff, and showed up for OTAs, pay me.
3:44So it's just something to keep an eye on for training camp.
3:48Okay, there's another—yeah, something to keep an eye on.
3:51Yeah, go ahead. From projections guy, I think the biggest question is, does Miles Garrett going from Cleveland increase the likelihood of
3:58a higher pass rate for Cleveland or increase the likelihood of a higher rush rate for the Rams?
4:04Like, he's a pretty elite defensive player, maybe the most elite defensive player.
4:08If the Rams' defense is just that much better, do we get more second-half rush attempts for the Rams?
4:14That's a good point. We've also rarely seen Miles Garrett playing with the lead.
4:19He's been off the field a lot. Now he's going to be on the field a lot.
4:24Yeah, because those Browns teams with Garrett, not so much last year, but I mean, they would run the most plays in the NFL or up there.
4:33They'd throw the ball a lot. But just a quick schedule for the Rams.
4:37San Francisco, Giants, both at home. Oh, no, no, sorry.
4:40San Francisco is in—where is that? Australia. Australia, right.
4:43San Francisco, it's a home game in Australia. Giants at home.
4:47Denver and Philadelphia on the road. Then Buffalo in week five.
4:50That's a fun schedule, man. So, should be some really competitive games there.
4:55And almost all of their games are primetime this year because they have so many primetime games.
5:00All right. And the Super Bowl, by the way, is in Los Angeles in SoFi Stadium.
5:05Bo Nix not expected— Who's beating them if they're healthy?
5:08Who's beating them? Yeah. I mean, they've got to have the best team on paper in the NFC.
5:14Yeah, right. NFL. NFL. Do they have the shortest odds now?
5:18Are they the favorites? I don't know because Seattle's in their division.
5:21It's the only thing that might hurt the odds a little bit.
5:25But I know their odds—I didn't see—I haven't seen this morning where they're at.
5:30Okay. We'll look it up. Bo Nix not expected to participate in OTAs.
5:34He broke his ankle in the playoffs, the AFC Championship game.
5:37So, he's still coming along there. Daniel Jones, though, is cleared for seven-on-seven.
5:42I believe he broke it in the round before.
5:44That's right. That's right. That's right. And the Giants.
5:47Heath, what do you think about the Giants just getting all those old receivers?
5:52They signed three guys yesterday. They signed Odell Beckham, Braxton Berrios, who I assume will be a special teams player with Gunnar O'Shola.
5:59Tuskeya for the year and Juju Smith-Schuster. I think Juju's very fun, and it's good that he gets to stay in the league.
6:06He's done an incredible job of catching like 70% of his targets in Kansas City.
6:11Hopefully, he can keep that up and be a chain mover when the Giants need it.
6:16They also have Darnell Mooney, and they brought in Calvin Austin, and they drafted Malachi Fields, and they brought back Isaiah Hodgins, and they have Derek Svaz.
6:25Half of these guys are not going to be on the team week one.
6:29Yeah. Perhaps the three that they signed yesterday won't be on the team.
6:34Right. Who are the six receivers, Adam? Who do you want it to be?
6:38Or who are the five with Neighbors? Yeah. Neighbors, Mooney.
6:41Well, Neighbors is going to be on Pup the first four weeks, so you can have another one.
6:47Okay. Mooney, Slayton. I like Hodgins. I would say Austin.
6:50Well, Barrios, you know what he's doing. Beckham and Barrios because he'll be the special.
6:55Fields is 100% going to be on the roster.
6:58I'm sorry. Get rid of… He might be the number one guy we've won.
7:02I would say Fields over Beckham. Beckham is at 34 or something.
7:06He's super old. He's done nothing in recent years.
7:09Fields might be over Hodgins. Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Fields is way at the top of the list.
7:15I don't know why I forgot about him. But, yeah, Beckham… I think Beckham could be like Hopkins was on the Ravens last year.
7:22He'll have a few big catches here and there, but not going to do much.
7:27Heath, what's coming up on FFT Dynasty? And then we'll talk about today's YouTube poll.
7:32Yeah, in like just over an hour. We've got a one-man mailbag and then special alert because you don't ever talk about
7:39it unless it's your show that does this. But FFT Dynasty will be making their CBS Sports Network debut on Friday and
7:46doing a reveal of the new updated top 12 at each position for June.
7:50And Dan's coming on. So I thought it was fitting because of all the trouble I've given Dan recently.
7:56Let's give Dan this opportunity to just kind of tear my rankings apart.
8:01I love that. It's just you and Dan? Yeah.
8:04Oh, wow. Man, nobody respects my Dynasty Chops at all.
8:07I didn't get invited. Well, okay. In fairness, and you do get invited on the show sometimes.
8:12Dave was giving me a hard time. I generally try to spread the wealth around, but you have talked repeatedly about how much you hate your Dynasty Leagues.
8:21And you've just been tanking for the entirety of the time that I've been in Dynasty Leagues with you.
8:27Okay. Neither of those things are true. I don't really like being the commissioner of the Dynasty League, but I like the leagues.
8:35And I'm only tanking in one league. You wouldn't know that just by looking at it.
8:40You're tanking in both. What are you talking about?
8:43You're definitely tanking in both. If you try to win and trade away your 2027 firsts in either of those leagues, you were insane.
8:50No, I wouldn't do that. But I might set a lineup and try to win.
8:55That's all. You know, set a good lineup. Okay.
8:58So the YouTube poll today, Heath was inspired. What inspired you this morning, Heath?
9:02I was mowing at about 745 this morning. And actually, it may have hit me when I was using what I call the weed eater.
9:10I think they call it an edger in Florida.
9:13But maybe it's the same thing. But no, I just thought, I wonder if Adam Azer's ever done this.
9:19Mowed the lawn. Yeah. Yeah. So the YouTube poll is, how many times has Adam Azer mowed his lawn over under 0.5?
9:26Right now, under has two-thirds of the vote. I voted.
9:30And I will tell you that the answer is either I've never done it or I tried it once and decided to never do it again.
9:38So that's what you all have to decide. But you're not sure.
9:42Oh, okay. Right. You didn't do it multiple times.
9:45I've never done it. I definitely have not done it multiple times.
9:48So it's either 1 or 0. And you never had to do it as a kid?
9:54No, no. I never did it as a kid.
9:56Jamie, have you ever mowed your lawn? My own?
9:59No. But you've mowed someone else's lawn. So I was visiting a friend in Massachusetts.
10:04And he was mowing his lawn, a big lawn.
10:07And he's like, you've never mowed your lawn before?
10:10He's like, do you want to do mine while I'm doing it?
10:14And I said, sure. So I dumped on the big thing, the big mower.
10:18And I did it for a little bit. And I was like, yeah, I'm good.
10:23All right. So we'll see. We'll check it out.
10:26745? Come on, man. You can't do it that early.
10:29Oh, in my neighborhood, it's fine. Oh, yeah. That is mean.
10:33Yeah, it's too loud. And I have an electric mower.
10:36So I'm not making any noise. Okay. All right.
10:39Let's get to the show here. Regression candidates. We start out with a team.
10:43A team. Look at. I don't know. Looking at teams and not players.
10:47We will get to some players. But in terms of plays run.
10:51Heath wants. By the way, Heath came up with the.
10:54Basically the entire show today. The poll. The topic.
10:57Raiders. Dolphins. Vikings. All below 955 plays last year.
11:00Raiders. Dolphins. Vikings. Vikings ran very few plays. The Cowboys, on the other hand, ran 1,120 plays.
11:05Most in the NFL. So when you look at the Raiders, Dolphins, and Vikings.
11:10All being below 955 plays. And all having different quarterbacks this year.
11:14You know. How do you project their play volume?
11:17Well, and two of them having different offensive coordinators.
11:20Or play callers this year. I just think for.
11:22It's worth noticing. Because the league median last year was about 1,053.
11:26So these teams all basically ran 100 fewer plays than every team in the NFL.
11:31And offensive plays turn into fantasy points. So it's not a huge difference.
11:35And a couple of these teams may be towards the bottom again.
11:39But they won't be this far below average. And the Cowboys probably won't be first at 11,20.
11:44They're probably going to have a few. And that may be a problem if Lamb and Pickens are both healthy all year.
11:52Because they're not going to have quite as many pass attempts probably.
11:55I looked at the last seven years and see the correlation between teams that were top 10 in plays.
12:01And where they ranked in points per game. And I guess to sum it all up.
12:07You don't see a lot of bad offenses there.
12:09Not all of them are great offenses. But the worst offense last year that was top 10 in plays.
12:15Was the Chargers offense. Which finished 18th in scoring.
12:18Now the year before that. The number one team in plays run in 2024 was Cleveland.
12:23This is unbelievable. They had the most plays and the fewest points.
12:27But that's pretty rare. Usually you have at least average or better offenses that are high in play volume.
12:33And I would think the Cowboys would be up there again, Heath.
12:37But 1,120 plays is quite a lot. Yeah. There weren't quite as many outliers on the top end as there were on the bottom end.
12:45Okay. That's like maybe four or five plays a game difference.
12:49Which does matter. Are there any play callers that you look at and go that they can run a lot of plays?
12:56Well, one of them is gone. Cliff Kingsbury was always that.
12:59I think Ben Johnson for sure in Chicago. They were second last year.
13:03They were always towards the top of the league.
13:06And then like Pittsburgh was 28. That's not really a play caller thing.
13:10In fact, we've got kind of a competition there.
13:13Because Aaron Rodgers generally uses the entire play clock.
13:16And his teams have a low number of plays.
13:19And Mike McCarthy's teams generally have a high number.
13:22Well, you could check what they were like together.
13:25The end of the Packers tenure was really when Rodgers started doing this the most.
13:30Yeah. I would say Kellen Moore, right? Is a guy who runs a lot of plays.
13:35Yes. Yeah. Saints were 10th last year. I think he was with the Eagles the previous two years.
13:41And they were a third and seventh in play volume.
13:44So that's another point in the Saints direction. Well, the Ravens are going to be interesting.
13:49Because you have a guy that's coming from Ben Johnson's coaching staff.
13:53And Sean Payton's coaching tree. And so that's a team that we're not used to seeing run a lot of plays.
13:59Or at least historically be fast. And they probably will be faster under Doyle.
14:04For sure. Yeah. I mean, he's mentioned the Raiders, Dolphins, and Vikings.
14:08The Ravens were next. The fourth fewest plays in the NFL last year.
14:12And I wonder if the Vikings get a little bit more up-tempo.
14:16Just because you have a veteran quarterback versus a guy that was clearly learning on the fly.
14:21One of the things that... Well, yeah. Also, I mean, just staying on the field is going to help you run plays, right?
14:29And just have a better offense. And not go three and out.
14:32I wonder who led the league in three and out percentage last year.
14:37Let's find out. It was the Raiders. The Vikings were 24th.
14:40Anyway, that is in the worst three and out percentage.
14:43Just a somewhat off-topic question. We talk about tendencies.
14:46Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers slow. McCarthy likes to push the pace a little bit.
14:51I don't think Mike McCarthy's offenses with Dallas ever ranked higher than 18th in running back target rate.
14:57And if you draft Jalen Warren, you really are hoping for a lot of targets.
15:02And Aaron Rodgers throws to his running backs more than basically any quarterback in the NFL.
15:07What do you guys think is going to happen there?
15:10You think they're going to be a high running back target volume team, the Steelers?
15:15Well, I mean, you look at the Cowboys teams that he had, and he had pretty good receiving cores there.
15:21So I was just pulling this up. In 2018, they were ninth in offensive plays run.
15:26But I thought I had their running back target rate, and I don't.
15:31I do. Their running back target rate, 19th, 19th, 26th, 18th, 28th in five seasons with Dallas.
15:36Doesn't mean that. No, I was looking at the last time McCarthy and Rodgers were together.
15:41Oh, okay, okay. Sorry. All right, well, that's a little bit of an aside there.
15:46We'll get back on topic. After we take this break, we'll talk about touchdown regression for Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence's rushing touchdowns, Drake May's yards per attempt.
15:55We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing.
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17:12Ba-da-ba-ba-ba. So let's get into these quarterbacks here. Matthew Stafford, one of the league MVP, one of the best values in fantasy last year.
17:2046 touchdowns. He's had two seasons like this with the Rams.
17:23Won the Super Bowl in one of them. And last year had a great season but fell short.
17:29All right. So what are you looking at in terms of touchdown regression for Stafford, Heath?
17:34Well, I think the place you can start is you brought it up.
17:38He had a 6.8% touchdown rate in 2021. The next three years were 3.3, 4.6 and 3.9.
17:44Now, Devontae Adams helps. So maybe it stays a little higher than that.
17:48But John Daigle on Twitter put out a very good chart.
17:51It shows there's 15 quarterbacks that have had a 7% touchdown rate or higher since 2000.
17:56No, in the last decade. So 15 QBs. They averaged 4.4 fewer fantasy points the following year.
18:02Wow. They averaged a dip of a 2.2% touchdown rate and a dip of 4.4 points in fantasy points.
18:08And sorry, Heath, is that 4 or 6 point for passing touchdown league?
18:12Oh, that's a good question. It does not. The answer does not say.
18:16So I would guess, based on what majority of the Twitter fantasy football world plays, it was 4.
18:22But it could have been 6. But I was going to say, like, he threw 597 passes.
18:27So 5.5% rate, that'd be a 2% dip, would be 33 touchdown passes next year.
18:32If Stafford lost 4.4 points per game from what he did last season, he'd probably be a streamer in 4 point for passing touchdown leagues.
18:40He'd still be a starter in 6 point for passing touchdown leagues.
18:44I think it's built into his early average draft position, though.
18:48I mean, you're seeing it where he's getting selected.
18:50I think if anybody was expecting him to replicate this or come close to it, we'd be ranking him and drafting him as a top five quarterback.
18:59Yeah. But I don't even know. Where do you think he was drafted last year?
19:04No, he was, you know, post-15. Yeah, right. So that's the thing.
19:08It's like, I understand that Matthew Stafford is a late round quarterback, you know, borderline top 12 quarterback in ADP and whatever.
19:15The question is, should I even bother with him?
19:18Or should I take a shot on Trevor Lawrence, who we're about to talk about?
19:22Malik Willis. Much other than Trevor Lawrence. About Malik Willis.
19:26I think that's a good pairing, though. Yeah. If I was going to throw a dart like that, I'd probably do Kyler.
19:33Fair. Right. Here's where he's finished as per game in five seasons with the Rams.
19:37I'll go four point per passing touchdown leagues first.
19:40On a per game basis, Matthew Stafford has been number 11, number 30, number 17, number 27, and number one.
19:47On a six and six point, number eight, number 30, number 17, number 26, and number one.
19:52He's only had two good seasons in five years.
19:55He's had a lot of injuries to cup and puka and all that.
19:59Last year, everything fell into place. He's played through back injuries.
20:03Mm-hmm. Including last year. Okay. Trevor Lawrence is rushing touchdowns, Heath.
20:06What do you have to say about that? What did he have?
20:10Nine last year? Yeah. 29 passing and nine rushing.
20:13And I think he had, if you look at it, he had a lot more rush attempts.
20:18But two years ago, he only played 10 games the year before.
20:22But two years ago, he had 70 rush attempts and scored four touchdowns.
20:26Last year, he had 82 rush attempts and scored nine.
20:30He may be a higher touchdown rush rate guy with Liam Cohen.
20:33I think Baker may have had a good year in terms of rushing touchdowns when Cohen was his coach.
20:39But he's going to lose at least a point per game from rushing touchdowns.
20:44So, Baker did run well with Liam Cohen. It's a small sample size, obviously, just two years of what he did with his quarterbacks.
20:52But in the one year with Cohen calling plays, Baker set a career high in rushing yards and rush attempts.
20:58He had three rushing touchdowns. So, it wasn't like the same level of finding the end zone.
21:03But I think most people would assume that Trevor Lawrence, better athlete.
21:07He ran more in college than Baker did. So, not a surprise that he's a little bit better with his legs.
21:14But yes, nine rushing touchdowns is hard to anticipate or replicate.
21:18I think you just know that that's kind of a staple, I think, of what this offense will lean on.
21:24And the positive would be is when he turns around behind him, it's not Travis Etienne anymore.
21:29It's Basial Tootin and Chris Rodriguez. So, he may have more design runs.
21:34They may give him some more opportunities. There may be more design runs in the red zone.
21:39And for all of the hype that we've heard about Parker Washington, there's been a lot of positive buzz about Brian Palmer.
21:46I don't think Chris Rodriguez has practiced so far in OTAs.
21:49Something to keep an eye on is that – I don't know if it's injury.
21:54He's just not there. I didn't really get a definitive answer.
21:58But the fact that Tootin may be taking the lead in the running back race doesn't mean that Chris Rodriguez is not
22:05going to have a role when his training camp comes around.
22:08But just in terms of Trevor Lawrence, they may need him to do that.
22:13They may need him to be a little bit more of a presence with his rushing.
22:18And I think that's a boost to his fantasy value.
22:21But again, if you're expecting nine rushing touchdowns, I think you probably cut that in half at best.
22:27Yeah. Yeah. He's been three, four, and five, I think, the previous three seasons.
22:31Not necessarily in that order. But maybe you ballpark it at four rushing touchdowns for Lawrence.
22:37Yeah. He had four one-yard rushing touchdowns last year.
22:39And the rest were from four, six, seven, ten, fifteen yards away.
22:43Seven yards – yeah, I don't know. All right.
22:46So that's – but I will say in his last ten games – or last seven games, he was the number one quarterback in fantasy.
22:54He averaged 31 fantasy points per game. And he was on pace for 44 passing touchdowns.
22:59So he really – he took off in the last seven games of his season.
23:04And even if the rushing had gone away, because he was killing it as a rusher too, on pace for 432 yards and ten rushing touchdowns.
23:12But even just the passing numbers, 4,507 yards, 44 touchdowns, ten picks, number one quarterback per game in the last seven games of the season.
23:20You know, the schedule was pretty damn easy. But he also – remember we went to Denver and he scored 37.2 fantasy points in Denver.
23:28He lit up Buffalo. Well, he had some picks.
23:31But 25.4 fantasy points against Buffalo in the playoffs.
23:34They were fourth best against quarterbacks. I don't know, Jamie.
23:37What do you make of it? He's had great stretches to end seasons before.
23:42Or was this different? It feels different because I think the coach is different.
23:46And I think the weapons are certainly different. You know, when you look at it, there was a comment – I missed
23:53who said it – that the Jags did next to nothing this offseason or did next to nothing to improve.
24:00I don't know if that's fair, you know, because they did make a significant move in the middle of the year last
24:07year, the trade deadline, to get Jacoby Myers and extend him.
24:10And then the biggest thing really is getting Brian Thomas healthy.
24:14And he was interviewed yesterday or the day before and said something like, what's the difference?
24:19He goes, I don't have any pain when I'm running.
24:22You know, so him healthy is a huge difference maker.
24:25Again, positive reviews so far this offseason. Take that for what it's worth in shorts and T-shirts and, you know, playing against air.
24:33But Parker Washington getting better and more involved. Healthy Brian Thomas getting Travis Hunter on the field.
24:38I know that makes us a little bit of a – a little bit concerning because of what it can mean for the rest of the receiving core.
24:47But that's clearly a weapon for Trevor Lawrence. And so with the run game maybe a little bit suspect, it could be fine.
24:54You know, again, Tootin and Rodriguez could be a great duo and still perform at a very high level.
25:00I just think looking at Trevor Lawrence, like you asked us Lawrence versus Stafford.
25:05Again, looking at their body of work and what they did last year, the easy answer should be Stafford.
25:11But I think if you're projecting it out, Lawrence is in a better spot and to me has a higher ceiling.
25:18I think he probably agrees. So, you know, the upside for Trevor Lawrence is fantastic.
25:22The value for Trevor Lawrence is fantastic. And again, when you start to get past, I think, those top five or six
25:30quarterbacks, there's a huge list of guys that you can say could be 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, whatever.
25:36You can pair Lawrence with somebody and still feel good about your quarterback duo.
25:40And then if that second quarterback doesn't produce, you just ride with Lawrence if he's playing well.
25:46So, yes, there should be a little bit of concern because he's done this before.
25:51But I think everything is just sort of moving in the right direction for Trevor Lawrence heading into 2026.
25:57Heath, let's talk about Drake May yards per attempt.
26:00He was just amazing last year and 8.9 yards per attempt with a 72% completion rate.
26:05And if not the highest, maybe the second highest ADOT in the NFL.
26:09So, yeah, it was just it was a pretty incredible year for Drake May.
26:13So there will be some regression in yards per attempt.
26:17Yeah, yards per attempt and most likely touchdown rate.
26:19He had a 6.3% touchdown rate. Few quarterbacks do that year over year.
26:24Now, maybe he's one of the guys that does, but even Josh Allen's only been over six twice and regressed from that.
26:31But I think Josh Allen's a good barometer to use because his career high in yards per attempt was last year at 8.0.
26:38So we saw Mahomes have an 8.8 and I think fell a half a yard the next year.
26:44Lamar had an 8.8 and then fell a half a yard the next year.
26:48There's a good chance, I think. I think I haven't projected at 8.0 yards per attempt, which is going to be throws 500 pass attempts.
26:56That's about 500 fewer passing yards. Now, we think generally speaking, if the yards per attempt go down, the pass attempts will go up a little bit.
27:05I just I wouldn't. We had the May versus Lamar thing yesterday.
27:09And I wouldn't want people to think, well, Drake May just got A.J.
27:13Brown. He's going to be even better. I think he will be better.
27:17And I don't think it's I think it's because of A.J.
27:20Brown. But I think they lost three games last year.
27:24Well, four if you want to count the Super Bowl.
27:27And there are three losses he threw or four losses.
27:30Forty six, thirty seven, twenty three and forty three passes.
27:33Their schedule is so much harder this year. Well, some of that is that they're playing better defenses, so they're probably going to score fewer points.
27:42Maybe, but I just think they're going to throw more.
27:45And they just traded for A.J. Brown. I 100 percent agree that the yards per attempt will go down.
27:51I'm not disputing your your regression. I just think the attempts are going to go off enough.
27:56And I think he threw thirty one touchdowns. He feels like a guy that could throw thirty five to forty touchdowns to me.
28:04So it's ambitious. So can Lamar Jackson, by the way, Jackson's done it twice.
28:08I would take Jackson over May. But I think I don't like he wasn't even that great for fantasy last year.
28:15It was just the passing in general wasn't great.
28:18What do you what do you average? Twenty four points, twenty twenty four points on the nose.
28:23That's that's a really good season. But that's one of that's one of Lamar Jackson's kind of bad seasons.
28:29You know, so I don't know, Jamie. I'll give you twenty four fantasy points and six point per pass and touchdown.
28:36These over under for Drake May. Oh, Heath. I mean, I would I've basically got it as a push.
28:42I think I have him at twenty three point seven in my projections.
28:46OK. All right. I guess that's just what I meant.
28:49And I feel like he'll be better. I just I look at that number twenty four twenty four points per game.
28:56I just feel like he can do better than that because he's so damn good.
29:01And he just got brown. But I wasn't disputing your regression argument at all.
29:05No, I think I think you nailed it. At least for me, you know that the regression will be there.
29:12But the fantasy production will be a little bit better because the volume will be better.
29:17And I think I just have the volume and the regression basically canceling each other out there.
29:22All right. All right. Christian McCaffrey and Brees Hall.
29:25We'll talk about these running backs here. McCaffrey had one hundred and twenty nine targets.
29:30One hundred and two catches last year. He had a twenty five point two percent target per out run rate, which was
29:37high, high for his San Francisco days, not for his Carolina days, but high for San Francisco.
29:42So you think the targets will regress? One hundred and twenty nine targets for McCaffrey.
29:47Yeah, he had eighty three and sixteen games in twenty twenty three.
29:51He has one season in his career with more than one hundred and twenty nine targets and teams just don't throw the ball to running backs that much.
30:00They had a weak receiving core last year and at times all of them were hurt and he was their number one wide receiver.
30:08They went out and got Mike Evans. They went out and got Christian Kirk.
30:12They went out and got Stribbling. And hopefully he's still amongst the most targeted running backs.
30:17But I think it matters more than people realize, because rushing wise, it was pretty much just volume.
30:23Like they were not effective for a large portion of the season running the football and he had a success rate below 50 percent.
30:31So if he's at 90 targets, then that could be a even if he stays healthy, that could be a really big ding in his production.
30:39I don't know if you do this quickly, Adam, but what were his targets with Mac Jones versus Brock Purdy?
30:45Yeah, I can do that. I don't think it was a big difference, but I will I will take a look.
30:52I mean, look, anything you're betting betting on or against McCaffrey games played is a big thing to hear.
30:58You know, last time we saw him coming off this workload and this is worse.
31:03He was over 400 total touches in the playoffs.
31:06Twenty twenty three played four games. Twenty twenty four is four hundred fifty total touches.
31:11In twenty twenty five, like that's incredibly scary. Right.
31:14You want a scary number? Oh, I'm sorry. I have to I have to do it just in twenty twenty five.
31:20Twenty twenty five. He had a twenty two percent target share with Brock Purdy.
31:25And I think it was a little higher with Mac Jones.
31:28Twenty two percent with Purdy. Twenty five percent with Mac Jones.
31:32Round up and down. Yeah, I think I'll be better with Purdy from that standpoint in terms of overworking him in the
31:39passing game because Purdy will not necessarily panic and dump the ball off to McCaffrey every chance he gets.
31:45Mac Jones probably will. Hopefully we don't see a lot of Mac Jones, but I think, again, you look at age touches receiving core being improved like.
31:54Yeah, this is this is a great call. OK, do you think that three point nine yards per carry?
32:00Do you think he regresses in the sense that he's just going to be a better rusher this year?
32:06I have a hard time betting on that with his age.
32:09I think he'll be better, but not dramatically better.
32:12I think also, look, the the additions that he laid out for you are going to threaten the defense more than what they had a year ago.
32:21You know, they had no Brandon. I use they had no Ricky Pierce off or stretches.
32:26Kittle was banged up at the start of the season like this is all they had, you know, and so it was
32:33we're going to force them to throw. And then it was Mac Jones.
32:37You know, so this was Kyle Shanahan at his best, you know, making this offense still work and making McCaffrey still be as elite as he was.
32:46But I think, you know, the you mentioned the story yesterday in terms of he's going to rest in practice.
32:52They're going to rest him more this year. They'll give him more opportunities to, you know, take some time off during games.
32:59You don't continue to. And I know they do this every year, but now he's 30.
33:04Like you can't you can't keep doing this to this guy and expect him to make it through the entire season.
33:11All right. Next up, we have Brees Hall. He scored five touchdowns on 279 touches.
33:16And he again, I said it at the start of the show, never scored more than five rushing touchdowns in a season.
33:23And he's played basically three full seasons in a row.
33:26The Jets have been 30th or worse in goal line carries, which I consider the one to three yard line from that range.
33:33They've been 30th or worse in goal line carries three straight seasons.
33:37So he it seems like you think he's going to regress, but it seems like this is where Brees Hall lives.
33:44Five rushing touchdowns. Five rushing touchdowns has, but there's a little bit of context there.
33:49Like his rookie year, he scored five total touchdowns on 99 targets or 99 touches.
33:5399 targets would be great. On 99 total touches.
33:56That was what, six games? Seven, right. Seven games.
33:59And he still had five touchdowns. His second year, he had nine total touchdowns on like 299 touches.
34:05The year after that, he had eight. Last year, he had five and had a career high by 20 in terms of rush attempts.
34:13I think some of this comes just because the offense is a little bit more functional.
34:18But also, even in repeatedly bad offensive environments, he's always scored at a much better rate than this.
34:24Even though the total number of rushing touchdowns hasn't been up.
34:27He's a tough one for me, guys. He's, you know, should be pretty much a workhorse, but he's on the jets.
34:34Hasn't really. You guys know why I don't have to explain the case.
34:38You know why he's a tough one. He's the guy I could see finishing as a top five running back and feeling
34:45like an idiot for not drafting any of them.
34:48Agreed. What do you think his ADP is right now?
34:51Probably somewhere around RB 15 or a little later.
34:54I think he's probably closer to 17, 18. Yeah, I've got him at 15 in my projections.
34:59And it's like, he finished his RB 21 last year with only 36 catches in 16 games.
35:05They're going to throw more because they don't have mobile quarterbacks.
35:08Right? So I feel like, how could he be worse than last year when he was RB 21?
35:14Yeah, I agree. I think Frank Reich is a plus compared to what they had last year.
35:19So that's a step in the right direction. I mean, look, they spent a lot of capital on offense.
35:26You know, and no matter what you think of Geno Smith, he's better than what they had a year ago.
35:32And so, you know, you bring in slightly upgraded quarterback, much more upgraded receiving core and pay Brees Hall.
35:38That's a big part of this, too, is they paid him.
35:42You know, they could have easily played this out and said, OK, we're just going to go to 20, 27.
35:48We'll get our quarterback then and see what we feel about the running back situation.
35:53So I think the fact that they committed to him is pretty remarkable.
35:57Then you look at the guys that he's being drafted around.
36:00And so, like, you can clearly make arguments for and against him versus Javante Williams, him versus Quinshot Judkins, him versus Cam
36:07Scadaboo, him versus probably Trevion Henderson is in this range.
36:11You know, him versus... Yeah, but you know what, Jamie?
36:14I'm going to blow your mind because on Fantasy Pros, he's going 29th.
36:18And he's going... He's RB 14 at 29th overall.
36:21In our leagues, he's going 22nd. Not that many drafts.
36:24In Draft Sharks, he is going 35th. But he's going, you know, consider...
36:28Not considerably, but he's going ahead of ETN and Javante.
36:31He's more in that... Those wide receivers that we talked about yesterday.
36:35You know, the McMillans and the T. Higgins of the world.
36:39He's going just barely behind Derek Henry. I'm kind of surprised.
36:42Like, Brees Hall is a round three pick. And I feel like you guys like him in round four, right, Jamie?
36:49Late round three, early round four. You know, so 35 is fine.
36:53You know, that's about the place I would start to look.
36:5622, no way. You know, there's no chance I would be taking Brees Hall then.
37:01And even what he said, like, I'd rather feel like an idiot and miss out that he's a top five running back
37:08than draft him at the end of round two.
37:11Because you have to build in the flaws here.
37:14Again, it is still Geno Smith. It is still a receiving core that's going to be a work in progress.
37:20It is still an offensive line that's a work in progress.
37:24Frank Reich was out of the league for a reason.
37:27So while all these, I think, are upgrades, there's still a lot of question marks.
37:32So if you want to say that he's RB 15 in round three, okay, I could buy into that.
37:38Late round three. If you want to say that he's RB 13 late round two, you know, that's putting him in Jeremiah Love and Derek Henry range.
37:47Like, he could be better than him. I wouldn't discount it.
37:50But I still think that there's reason to be a little bit pessimistic.
37:54And to bring up the touchdowns, you know, I'll go back to a guy who was very high on last year, Braylon Allen.
38:02You know, that's a physical running back that you know the coach wanted to use, was talking him up quite a bit.
38:09Who knows what it was for? If it was, you know, contract or motivation or whatever.
38:14They were all in on Braylon Allen. It sold me on Braylon Allen at his cost.
38:19And now you have Braylon Allen back after missing most of the season last year.
38:24Does he take away those touchdown opportunities, which could be frustrating?
38:27Which reminds me, I'm a dumbass for two reasons.
38:30One, someone emailed. Yeah. And I don't mow the lawn.
38:33I don't know what the poll was, but I've never done that.
38:37So it was under 0.5. Anyway, I was wrong when I said of last month that Braylon Allen hurt himself on his goal line carry.
38:45Someone pointed out to me, emailed me and said he hurt it on special teams shortly after, I guess, that goal line carry.
38:52But also I was looking at non-PPR on our website.
38:56And Brees Hall was 22nd there. In full PPR, he's 30th in between Kyron Williams and Jeremiah Love.
39:01So no one's taken him in PPR leagues with a second round pick.
39:06All right, we'll talk about Devante Adams, JSN, Brian Thomas Jr., Trey McBride, Dallas Goddard, and Tucker Craft.
39:11And we come back on Fantasy Football today. Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing.
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40:10Well, if Matthew Stafford is going to regress in terms of touchdowns, then it's probably going to mean Devante Adams is going to regress as well.
40:18He had 14 touchdowns in 14 games. He had the most end zone targets that I've seen since True Media started tracking it.
40:26So it's, you know, bound to regress. What do you think about Adams, Heath?
40:30I think everybody probably knows this one, so maybe we can be shorter.
40:34But the reason I put it on there is because there is significant disaster possibilities if the regression is a lot.
40:41Just because he averaged 53 receiving yards per game last year.
40:44And he wasn't, he had his worst yards per target since 2015.
40:48And his catch rate was way down. And so if, if he scores seven touchdowns, he's not somebody that you really ever want to start.
40:56Jamie, do you share those concerns? Very much so.
40:59You know, the, the, the saving grace, and this is a team that would not shock me if they add another veteran
41:06receiver because of just where they're at. But the depth chart at that position is miserable.
41:11You know, so I just did the outlooks for the Rams.
41:15You know, you're talking about Jordan Whittington and Kanata Mumfield.
41:18And they drafted a receiver in the seventh round, I believe.
41:21This is just a very thin group behind the top two guys.
41:25And you have Puka, who we know was great last year, but has an injury history.
41:30And Devante Adams is 33. And so you could see Stefan Diggs.
41:34You could see Tyree Kill. You could see maybe Brandon Ayuk if they decide to go that route, if he's released.
41:41Like, there's guys out there that make sense for the Rams at this point.
41:45And so I think we'll see some additions, which will take away from Devante Adams if there's somebody of significance.
41:52Mostly, again, if it's, if it's Stefan Diggs. Now, they are all in on this heavy tight end package, as we saw last year.
42:00And drafting Max Clare in round two speaks to that.
42:03After drafting Terrence Ferguson the year before, bringing back Tyler Higbee, keeping Colby Parkinson.
42:07Like, they are loaded at that position from guys that can be, you know, superstar caliber.
42:12I think if Terrence Ferguson was on a different team, you know, ask Jacob Gibbs, we'd be talking about his, you know, potential breakout candidate.
42:20I think Max Clare, if he was drafted to this team, we'd be looking at him in a, in a very different
42:27light if there weren't all these other guys. So there's opportunities to just lean heavy into that.
42:33And, you know, to go back to the Miles Garrett conversation, if they're playing with the lead and running the ball, we'll
42:40probably see a lot of tight ends on the field.
42:43So, so I think what you're looking at with, uh, with, with Devante Adams is can he score eight plus touchdowns?
42:50Can he score 10 plus touchdowns? Like that's a big ask.
42:53Cause if those come down as, as, as I think we all feel it's going to happen, it could be really problematic for him.
43:01Cause I don't see, I don't see everything else increasing dramatically.
43:04I think he will get better in terms of, you know, you brought this up previously, like his, um, off target rate
43:11was not great last year and he struggled a little bit in terms of, you know, connecting with Matthew Stafford at times.
43:19So that will probably be better. You know, you're more of chemistry, you're more of work off season work, et cetera.
43:25Uh, but if the touchdowns significantly regress and we're talking six or seven, it could be bad.
43:31I, yeah, I think, um, he'll probably have a lower eight out.
43:35He had Devante Adams at the highest eight out of his career last year, which probably contributed to a low catch rate.
43:42Although that's been a problem for a few years now.
43:45Um, but I think we all see it. The touchdowns really boosted him.
43:49I do wonder, I've seen Ryan Heath do some writing on this for fantasy points.
43:54The teams that run the heavy personnel with the three tight ends.
43:58If you're a wide receiver on the field in those formations, I think it's a really good thing because you're just more likely to get targets, right?
44:06I mean, quarterbacks probably going to throw wide receivers more than they are to tight ends.
44:11So if there's only two receivers on the field, right?
44:14Would you agree, Heath? That's, uh, uh, it's definitely a boost for wide receivers.
44:19As long as you are one of the guys on the field.
44:23Um, I don't, I think, I guess that's a positive for Adams.
44:27I think it's a little bit concerning that last year, like he played in the offense that did that all year and had his worst year efficiency.
44:35But they switched it though. They switched it mid season.
44:38Once they started running it, it was Adams on the field and then they switched it and went to Puka.
44:45Yeah. So it may not be Adams on the field.
44:48Yeah. Um, well, Adams, Jamie, just to give that one stat, he 78 wide receivers had 50 or more targets.
44:54He was 70th in catchable target rate. So kind of weird, just, just a weird, bad connection with Stafford, believe it or not.
45:02Um, who's next here, uh, on the wide receiver list.
45:05Sorry. It was JSN. Yeah, he's good. What are you concerned about with JSN?
45:09Not concerned. What's the regression for JSN? He's very good.
45:13Um, but I mean, just kind of, I think as a rule, when a player comes out of nowhere and does what
45:20he did last year, you expect some regression. The fast that he lost Clint Kubiak makes you a little bit concerned.
45:26The fact that, you know, Sam Donald's been a bit of a mixed bag in his career.
45:32I just, I, I've got him projected for right on 18 fantasy points.
45:36That's very good. Um, just when you're comparing him to the best players at his position and running back, I, I'm not sure he'll quite measure up.
45:45Um, Jamie concerned about him who, you know, JSN, who had just an, the best year of, of any wide receiver on
45:52a low pass volume team in at least 12 years on a bottom five passing volume team in 13 years, actually.
45:58Um, any concerns? So you both said something. I think that makes sense on both ends.
46:04Uh, the loss of Clint Kubiak could be problematic for a new offensive coordinator who's coming in with a background of, of running the ball.
46:12You say it was a low volume passing attack, Adam.
46:15Um, I think that's where the change happens. And that's, I think what benefits they have sent.
46:20They just lost their two best running backs and they bring in a guy, they bring in two guys.
46:26One has been a career backup and Emmanuel Wilson.
46:29The other was a backup in college. Will they have the same success running the ball?
46:34I don't think they will. I think we're going to see them throw the ball more to what extent we'll find out,
46:41but I think we see more volume. Then you look at what this receiving core looks like.
46:47Well, does Rasheeth, he get better with a full off season in the system or is he just what he is?
46:53He's a, you know, sacrificial X and a guy that's going to play on special teams and do a lot of things in the return game.
47:02Cooper cup is aging by the second. He's 33.
47:05Did not look very good last year until the end of the season.
47:09And you know, maybe that's something that carries over to this year.
47:13Maybe Torrey Horton can stay healthy and they get more production out of that spot.
47:17And we know that they have multiple tight ends that they can use as well.
47:22You know, we didn't see anything from Elijah Royal last year, who was a second round pick for them.
47:28So we could see a little bit more production from that spot.
47:32I think JSN is clearly their guy. And not just clearly their guy, clearly their offense at this point, because losing Walker
47:39and Charbonnet could just absolutely be disastrous for this entire team.
47:43So regression. Sure. He could certainly take a little bit of a step back.
47:47Dramatic step back. You said 18 points per game.
47:50Heath, I think he's still pushing 20 and challenging to be the best receiver in fantasy.
47:55All right. Heath, when are you taking JSN? I think I have him at six.
48:00Six. Okay. I'll be curious to see. And we're not far off.
48:04I mean, he's fifth for me, but that's, you know, I've seen drafts where he's gone first overall.
48:10You know, it's not out of the realm of possibility that people love drafting receivers first over Gibbs and Robinson or Robinson Gibbs, whatever order.
48:18And they like JSN better than Chase and Puka.
48:20And lastly, at wide receiver, Brian Thomas Jr. And Jamie, I'm glad you brought that.
48:25I should have brought that up in the news and notes that Brian Thomas Jr.
48:30said that it doesn't hurt to run this year.
48:33Played hurt for much of the season. And I've mentioned that when everyone was healthy, Parker, Washington, Jacoby Myers, Brenton strange, Brian Thomas Jr.
48:41At the end of the year, he had a super high a dot.
48:45I think it was something like 17 yards. And they're talking about wanting to get the deep ball going this year.
48:51I really hope they don't make him a 17 yard a dot guy.
48:56It's not going to be good for him. I mean, maybe in an Alec Pierce kind of way, but not in a Brian Thomas Jr.
49:04of 2024 kind of way. Heath, what are you looking at with Brian Thomas Jr.
49:08In terms of regression? I think the biggest thing is that he just maybe he was talking about the toe or the foot.
49:16And I think there was a shoulder at some point.
49:19I'm not sure the wrist was fully healthy. He was just completely beat up for most of the year.
49:25And maybe he didn't handle that quite as well as he could have.
49:29But we saw the catch rate fall from 65% to 53%.
49:33We saw the yards per target fall from 9.6 to 7.8.
49:36And he earned a lot fewer targets in the second half of the season.
49:41I think after they just accepted that he wasn't healthy enough to be as good as he had been in the past.
49:48I just think he's too good to be as bad as he was last year.
49:52Is he your favorite Jaguars wide receiver? Currently, yes.
49:55But they are all they are back to back to back.
49:59And I know Jamie says if you want to take the upside play, it's Brian Thomas Jr.
50:04Is he your highest ranked though, Jamie? It's hard to ignore everything that just came out of the OTAs that how good Parker Washington looks.
50:12So I moved Washington ahead of Brian Thomas by one spot.
50:16They were the other way around. Now, again, Thomas had amazing reports as well.
50:20And so this is, to me, the most fascinating receiving core for fantasy this year to keep an eye on and to
50:27find out what it's going to look like because Jacoby Myers has been very productive.
50:32And then I really do think that we're going to have a Travis Hunter problem because I'll just go back to the narrative.
50:39They're getting pooped on for the trade. And when you get pooped on, you try to prove that you made the right decision.
50:47Well, how do you do that? You play them on offense and you give them a lot of opportunities.
50:53And so if you're giving them opportunities, it's coming to the expense of one of these other three guys, one of which
51:00they paid in a mid-season trade in Jacoby Myers, one of which they may be trying to highlight to trade in Brian
51:07Thomas, who was amazing for them, but it was a different coaching staff two years ago.
51:12So there's a lot of things to dissect with the Jaguars.
51:16And Parker Washington was a sixth-round pick. It took him a few years to impress his new coach or impress the franchise.
51:23And now it's like, how do you take that off the field?
51:27So it really is something to look at here.
51:29And I think you're going to take swings on three of these guys for sure, maybe four.
51:35And you may miss wildly if you take them too soon.
51:38I just think Brian Thomas is too good to not have some level of bounce-back potential.
51:43And if he does bounce back, similar to what he said about Brees Hall, how did I not take a chance on him?
51:51How did I not try and draft this guy and just see what he could become or could become again?
51:57Because I was thinking about this when we had the Malik Neighbors conversation yesterday, when you said, what would it look like if he was healthy?
52:06And it may have been Brian Thomas. What if he was bad?
52:09Malik Neighbors, what if he had looked so good as a rookie?
52:13And then taking this huge step back. Like Brian Thomas was so bad last year.
52:18And he laid it out, all the injuries, how much without a problem, new offense, how much without a problem, other guys, et cetera.
52:26But like, man, it was bad for a big stretch of the season for Brian Thomas.
52:31And I hope he can get back to something close to that because it would be a lot of fun.
52:37Yeah. It's not even worth talking about right now.
52:40And I don't know that it's worth talking about at all.
52:44But Malik Neighbors actually wasn't really that good last year, except for against Dallas, which was the worst.
52:49I mean, go look at what Marvin Harrison Jr.
52:52did to Dallas. He destroyed them on Monday Night Football.
52:55Dallas was the... And L. Robinson, the same game.
52:58Yeah, yeah, right. Right. Russell Wilson threw 400 yards in that game.
53:02He had 12.1 fantasy points in week one against Washington.
53:05He had a terrible game. 3.3 points against the Chiefs.
53:09Then he had two catches for 20 yards before tearing his ACL and meniscus against the Chargers.
53:14But he scored 37.7 points against Dallas. This is his neighbors.
53:17It was also with our now new colleague, Russell Wilson.
53:21It was. Well, week four was Dart, right? Yeah.
53:24Week four was Dart, but that was Dart's first start.
53:27Dart's first start. God, I don't have anything that rhymes with that.
53:31Oh, terrible. Fart. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Trey McPhyon. Dart's first start.
53:34League neighbors took a fart and you don't... They brought out the cart.
53:38They brought out the cart. They brought out the cart.
53:41Yeah. While leading out Pop-Tarts. Okay, I want to get through these tight ends because I want to tell you guys what
53:48I wrote in a text message before the show.
53:51It's really important. Everyone needs to hear it. Trey McBride.
53:55He thinks there's going to be some target regression for Trey McBride.
53:58He had 169 targets. It's like 10 per game.
54:0117 games, 169 targets. Since week eight of the 2023 season, that's 43 games.
54:06He's on pace for 159 targets. So, led the position.
54:09We've been second in the position three straight years in target per outrun rate.
54:13Tell me about your regression concerns with McBride. Well, I...
54:17I texted it to, by the way. What's that?
54:20What did you text it to? A couple of friends.
54:23Not you guys. But it's a really important text.
54:26It needs to be written in the air. You text target per outrun rate to friends that aren't us?
54:32No, no, no. It has nothing to do with football.
54:35I just... It's off subject. I want everyone to stay tuned for the end of the show.
54:40Oh. I want to tell you what I texted.
54:43And no, I don't text that kind of stuff to my friends.
54:47Go ahead, Heath. I think... You gave the since week eight of his second year.
54:52I would probably, if I was going to compare, I would say week eight of his second year through his third year,
54:59he was on pace for 152 targets. So maybe that would be my target expectation if Drew Petsing was staying.
55:05Because we've talked about it a lot. Like, they just...
55:08When Jacoby Brissett took over, they went insanely pass-heavy.
55:11They've changed coaching staffs. They drafted Jeremiah Love. I don't think there will be as many...
55:16They led the NFL in pass attempts last year.
55:19I don't think there will be as many pass attempts in Arizona.
55:23So he's probably losing a target per game. He's also...
55:26Like, Trey McBride has been a touchdown regression candidate every year of his career, I believe.
55:31Usually it was because he was only scoring two or three.
55:35Then he went and had an insane 7.5% touchdown rate season.
55:38That's probably coming down, I would guess, two or three.
55:42So I think you got two to four fantasy points per...
55:45Or two to three fantasy points per game that you're losing just based on that.
55:50And then, as I've talked about too much, he was in one of the most tight end friendly systems in football.
55:57And he's not going to be this year. All right, he scored 18.6 points per game last year at Trey McBride in PPR.
56:04So if he's down to 16, 2.6 fewer per game, he's worth a pick where?
56:09Round three. Jamie, what do you think? 16 points for McBride.
56:12I think the bigger question, though, is what's tight end two, three, and four?
56:17He was four points better per game than tight end two.
56:20He was 100 points better in total points than tight end two.
56:24Like, that's dramatic. So if he's that much better than the field...
56:28So if he's at 16 and the next guy is at 13 or 12, like, he's worth a round two pick easily.
56:35I think late round two is fair. I actually like Bowers better than McBride.
56:40I think Bowers takes a step forward because of better quarterback play, better coaching.
56:44And McBride does regress. I share Heath's thoughts here.
56:47You know, I think we're looking at if you have a full season of Marvin Harrison and anything close to just a
56:54better Michael Wilson plus just a better run game.
56:57Like, that's a big part of this also is, you know, they really looked at, you know, you talk about most pass attempts.
57:04They were terrible running, but I think they were 32 in terms of rushing yards per game.
57:10So, or the Raiders were right there with them.
57:13But, you know, you're looking at just a better offense in general.
57:16I think a better overall offense and a step back in terms of what the passing game, pass attempts look like.
57:23So I just think he loses a little bit here and there.
57:27You want to hear a scary stat for Shane McBride?
57:30Did you text this to somebody? No. Let's go to 2024 where he, what did he have?
57:36Three touchdowns that year? So he had, he led the team in 2024 with red zone and green zone targets.
57:42But in the end zone, it was all Marvin Harrison.
57:45Not all, but it was largely Marvin Harrison Jr.
57:48Marvin Harrison Jr. Had 18 end zone targets in 2024.
57:51McBride had nine. McBride only caught one of those nine, which is ridiculously low.
57:56He should probably. How many of those are at the end of the season when they were forcing the ball to get touchdowns?
58:03Yeah, maybe. But he had nine and Harrison had 18.
58:06This past year, it was basically flipped. It was 18 for McBride and 10 for Harrison.
58:11But when Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the field, he had, he had more than, my numbers are wrong here, but he had more than McBride.
58:20So McBride really, like Marvin Harrison Jr. might still be the end zone guy.
58:24And, and seven of McBride's 11 touchdowns last year came on end zone targets.
58:29And you gave that 16. I, I, not a lot under, but I would take the under if you were setting 16
58:36as an over under for his fantasy points per game this year.
58:39I did something, I'm doing something wrong. Oh, no.
58:42So I've got end zone targets. Marvin Harrison Jr.
58:45With 13 and McBride with six when Harrison was on the field.
58:49But what about for the full season? It was okay.
58:52Okay. I said, I said, I was just wrong about Marvin Harrison's end zone targets to begin with.
58:58Yeah. So that's insane. So 13 end zone targets for Marvin Harrison Jr.
59:02When he was on the field, only six for McBride.
59:05McBride had 11 when Harrison was not on the field.
59:09It's a big deal. You got to take into account that we may not see Jacoby Brissett the majority of the season too.
59:16You know, they probably going to force Carson back on the field at some point.
59:21And that could be good for a Trey McBride.
59:24Could be awful. How many touchdowns do you think McBride scored when Marvin Harrison Jr.
59:28Was on the field? He scored 11 for the year.
59:32Four. Bingo. They both scored four. All right. We've been very negative on Trey McBride.
59:36We still like him quite a bit, but there's a lot to consider.
59:41Dallas Goddard scored 11 touchdowns as well. And he had no more than five in any previous season.
59:46So that's going to come down. And I think seven, by my count, seven of his 11 touchdowns were designed for him in close to the end zone.
59:55So yeah, big, big deal there for Goddard. Yeah.
59:58And I think there's a, you can make the case that he's going to have an increase in targets because AJ Brown's gone.
60:06And maybe this is just a wash that he scores fewer touchdowns, but has more production.
60:11And so it doesn't turn him that bad. I would just say that kind of like Devante Adams, there is a risk
60:18here that other than scoring touchdowns, Goddard was really pretty mediocre last year.
60:2239 receiving yards per game, just 7.2 yards per target.
60:259.9 yards per catch was a career low. The yak was non-existent.
60:29First time ever below four yards per catch after reception.
60:32And they just drafted Eli Stowers. If it might not just be touchdown regression, it might be that the touchdowns masked the
60:39fact that Goddard wasn't as good and Stowers by mid-season is seeing more targets than him.
60:44Certainly could be the case. In the, so we kept referencing the three games that AJ Brown missed for Devante Smith.
60:51Brown actually missed four games over the last two years.
60:54Smith just happened to miss one with him. So in those four games that, uh, Brown missed Goddard averaged 16.2 PPR points per game in those four games.
61:03Now it's a little skewed because three of those games were amazing.
61:07One was a little disappointing. And in two of those games, he had seven plus targets in the other one, which was
61:14last year was the four touchdown game that Jalen Hurts had against the Giants in week eight and Goddard scored two touchdowns,
61:21but he only like three catches for 28 yards or something like that.
61:25It was, it was pretty mediocre, but he scored twice.
61:28So I think if you just look at what the upside is for Goddard, it's clearly there, but you have to expect
61:35that we're talking about a guy that sees his touchdowns come down.
61:39It's a new offensive coordinator as well. So Sean Mannion may change some things.
61:44Uh, but I also think, you know, and this is something that's a Jalen Hurts positive and negative in this regard is
61:51like, is Jalen who we had that whole story reluctant to change.
61:55Does that mean he's reluctant to not rely on the guys that he's used to meeting Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard.
62:01So this could be a negative from a Kyle lemon could be a negative for Stowers could be a negative for all the veterans that they brought in.
62:10And it could be great for Goddard and obviously Devante Smith that, okay, I know what these guys are capable of doing.
62:17I know what I can get from them when things don't go my way as he did with Kevin Petulo.
62:24I'm going to call my own plays where I'm going to do what I want to do.
62:29And I'm going to lean on Goddard and lean on Devante Smith.
62:33So I don't know where you come out on the seat.
62:36I still think Goddard, as we discussed with AJ Brown, uh, trade yesterday, like he's a great late Brown option.
62:43But if you're looking at and saying, Oh, huge upgrade now because Brown is gone.
62:48Guy scored 11 touchdowns last year, 16.2 PPR points per game when Brown wasn't there.
62:52Like this could be a top eight, top five tight end.
62:56I think you're making a mistake. Yeah. I think he would sign off on that.
63:01100%. Tucker craft is our last regression candidate, his efficiency and his touchdowns.
63:05He looks a lot like George Kittle on paper.
63:08Can you keep it up? Well, no. Um, he, he, we used to call him like George Kittle light and his efficiency
63:15has gotten to the point to where it's like insane George Kittle.
63:19Like what if George Kittle was an alien that could not be stopped?
63:23He averaged 11.1 yards per target last year and scored six touchdowns on 44 targets.
63:28Like I, and that the reason that that really matters, I think if you just look at tight end fantasy points per
63:35game, and then you start hearing that we think Tucker craft's going to be healthy.
63:39Well, Jamie was talking about if he falls to 16, George Kittle last year was 14.7.
63:45Tucker craft was 14.6. Brock Bowers was 14.5. It wouldn't be that hard to talk yourself into Tucker craft kind of being in that same class.
63:53And maybe like the way this could change is if they just throw it to him seven times a game, which would
64:00be nice, but they haven't done that with anyone.
64:03The whole time the floor has been there really.
64:06Just his career. Okay. Tucker craft came in the league in 2023 and he's second in yards per target behind George Kittle.
64:13He's got to be first in yak 9.1 yards for sure, but it's every year.
64:17He does it every year, but last year was even more extreme.
64:21Uh, yeah, last year was, what was his yak last year?
64:25It was 10.8, 10.8. It was 9.1 the year before that 7.5 as a rookie.
64:30He's pretty incredible. Um, I don't really find myself drafting him or Laporta just because I don't think those guys are going to get 90 targets.
64:38I mean, I don't think they're, I don't think they're going to get a hundred and yet I think it's much more
64:45likely Laporta does than craft because of the coach.
64:48And because of a quarter had 120 targets he's already.
64:51Yeah. Just, there's not really, there's not a discount for craft.
64:55I thought there might be coming off the ACL, but he's going like 70th.
64:59That doesn't really feel like a discount to me.
65:02Does Jamie, does that feel like a discount to you?
65:05No, but I think if he had stayed healthy and obviously continued on the trajectory he was on, we're talking about a
65:12top three tight end here in, in most drafts.
65:15And then you take into account that they took away two wide receivers and they're counting on a guy who did nothing
65:22last year to take a huge step forward in Matthew Golden.
65:26Plus Christian Watson, who's, who's Watson, who's penciled in as their number one guy has had a hard time staying healthy himself.
65:33So, you know, again, to play out your Malik neighbor scenario, if he had been healthy, like if Tucker craft had been
65:40healthy, like you'd be, you'd be hearing, is it McBride powers or craft?
65:44Like, I think that would be the conversation and love them would probably be for it.
65:49So there's a lot to like about the situation.
65:52A he's got to be healthy B yes. He's got to continue to perform at this level.
65:57But even if he does regress, I think that's kind of what people are looking at with him is that he still
66:04could be pretty special and probably going to be one of Jordan loves top targets, if not the top target in this office.
66:12So it's a big ask. It's a big question again with the knee.
66:16I think as he said, you know, if he's, if we're getting more positive result reports on this, like his ADP may
66:23rise, but we'll, we'll, we'll see how it shakes out.
66:26Like, you know, at one point, I don't know if it was our ADP and a lot before Dave was doing this
66:33exercise with the drafts, but I know there was one site where he was tight end three and like, no, I can't, I can't sign off on that.
66:42But I think once you get past for me, at least the top four or five guys, I think he's in that next group with pits and likely.
66:51And I think LaPorta belongs there, but you know, debatable fan and, you know, with all the additions, the Browns made, like
66:58he could be better than all these guys. It wouldn't be shocking.
67:02Yeah. Maybe I undersold his targets. If the Packers just start throwing more, then it would change everything.
67:08And I also probably oversold his ADP. It is 70th Tucker craft on draft sharks going 70th on fantasy pros, 86th or 87th CBS about 80th.
67:16So, um, there you go. All right. A couple of chat things here.
67:20Um, has Adam ever used a power tool, a drill?
67:23Does a drill count? I've drilled. Yeah, that is a power.
67:27Well, it's a drill. Okay. It had a battery and it made a sound.
67:31Yeah. Yeah. It's very fun to use a drill.
67:34So, and then I did mention, um, that Devante Adams had the highest eight out of his career and Eric was very
67:41surprised by this because half his catches. Eric was surprised because you know, he had so many end zone targets, but it is true.
67:49And then I looked, I just did the math a little earlier.
67:53His eight out was about 12.2 yards. I think Devante Adams, it was 14.3 yards, which is very high on anything other than end zone targets.
68:01So, uh, they tried some downfield stuff with him and didn't really work that well.
68:06Okay. You want to hear the text I sent?
68:09I want this on the record. Okay. Yeah. I am so certain that the Knicks are going to win the championship that
68:16all I can think about is, man, I hope they close it out on their home court.
68:21End quote. I am. They are going to win.
68:24Probably. I like Knicks fans hate you for reading that on air.
68:28It's one thing to send that to your friend to read it on air.
68:32It was a disastrously bad take. I thought it was Spurs and six.
68:37I'm going Spurs and five now. Are you going to any games?
68:40I do not have $10,000, so I will not be going to the games.
68:45No. Unfortunately. You know, if you'd mow your own lawn, you probably could.
68:49Oh, more Giants news. Oh, did they sign? Who'd they sign this time?
68:53Tyreek Hill? No. Not Andrew Miller either. They released Jason Sanders.
68:57Oh. All right. Thanks for watching. Listen, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
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69:06Really? I can get super specific with dealer listings and see cars based on my budget.
69:11You can really have it delivered. Or pick it up.
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69:18Really? AutoTrader. Buy your car online. Really?
