It’s Brocktober! Previewing Week 4

Rodgers threw for almost 100 yards under pressure in Week 3 against Cincinnati, the most he has thrown under pressure since September 2024 and the third most in the last four years since joining the Jets and Steelers. He threw under pressure, on the move, and downfield, shredding man coverage against Cincinnati. However, Mina Kimes notes this may be a flash rather than sustainable; at 42 years old, it's unprecedented unless you're Tom Brady, and odds are against him playing close to that level for a full 17-game season, especially on a short week against a feisty Browns defense.

Rodgers benefited from Mike McCarthy's creative offensive scheme in Week 3, including bunch concepts, motion, play-action, and screen passes designed to attack man coverage. McCarthy called a surprisingly weird and fun offense with full house formations and creative play-calling that Mina Kimes believes is sustainable and worth monitoring going forward.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offensive line put together "one of the worst performances by an offensive line" in Week 3, with historically poor pass-blocking metrics. Mina Kimes notes the guard situation is "by far the most dire part of the offensive line," with Aaron Banks injured and other starters struggling. The Packers face the Buccaneers in Week 4, and Kimes questions whether this is the week the Bucs pass rush finally shows up, noting "God knows they'll never have a better opportunity than this one."

St. Brown is part of the Lions' elite receiving corps (alongside Jamison Williams) that will face a severely depleted Panthers secondary missing both starting corners JC Horn and Mike Jackson to injury. This creates a significant matchup advantage for Detroit's passing attack.

Baker Mayfield is benched for Tampa Bay in Week 4, replaced by backup Jalen Daniels. This marks a significant role change for the Buccaneers quarterback.

Bo Nix faced the Jaguars defense last week in the first half when Jacksonville was very good defensively, but in the second half the Jaguars weren't generating enough pressure on Nix, partly due to the Broncos' strong offensive line. This context is relevant for understanding the Jaguars' defensive capabilities heading into Week 4.

Bo Nix's first-half performance is a concern; the Broncos' run game is not good enough (16th in rushing success rate), and if they can't run the ball against the 49ers' weak run defense (29th by success rate), Nix may struggle in the first half. The Broncos' run game has been a constant source of frustration and is not living up to expectations despite Sean Payton's scheme and a strong offensive line.

Bo Nix has the 'zoomies' in the first half—he's too hyper and amped up, running around in circles—but calms down by the second half. Mina Kimes theorizes Sean Payton needs to let him run around in a field for 20 minutes before the game to get it out of his system. He looks wired and amped up on the sideline and in pregame shots.

Bowers is performing at an elite level as a rookie tight end; Mina Kimes believes he is the best tight end in football. He commands defensive attention as the Raiders' primary receiving threat, with limited other receiving options. Kimes projects Bowers will have approximately 120 yards in Week 4 against the Chiefs despite facing an elite defense.

Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense are the main event in the Broncos-49ers matchup. The 49ers' run defense is a weakness (29th defensively against the run by success rate), but the offense has been strong. Purdy will face a Broncos defense that can be exploited.

Purdy has dramatically improved against the blitz this season; he was 27th in EPA per play against the blitz last year but is now first in the NFL through three weeks. This elite performance against aggressive defenses suggests the 49ers can handle Denver's blitz-heavy approach in Week 4.

Caleb Williams did not practice on Wednesday and his status is uncertain for Week 4 against the Jets; Case Keenum is expected to start if Williams cannot play.

Mina Kimes is not encouraged by Cam Ward's performance through the first three weeks; she watched the Giants game and found it ugly, though he did improve on the touchdown drive in the second half. She views him on a Sam Darnold track—raw talent is evident, but decision-making and accuracy are concerning, and she doesn't think it will happen soon in Tennessee. The offensive scheme doesn't create schematic advantages for him, and the Titans don't ask him to do much, suggesting a lack of trust.

Case Keenum played well in his start against the Eagles and is expected to start again against the Jets if Caleb Williams cannot play. The Bears' passing game may find it harder to dominate this week after catching the Eagles defense by surprise.

McCaffrey is one of two essential players (alongside George Kittle) for the 49ers offense to function effectively; Mina Kimes uses the metaphor that McCaffrey is the 'egg' in Kyle Shanahan's 'chopped' ingredients analogy—as long as one of these two is healthy, Shanahan can scheme an unstoppable offense. The 49ers have been the best offense in the NFL through three weeks, comparable only to the 2023 Miami Dolphins.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense have been terrific so far this season but methodical rather than explosive. Sheil Kapadia notes the Cowboys are one of those teams that can string together drives every single week but may need to hit on big plays against the Texans' strong defense to prevent Hunter and Will Anderson from wrecking the game. The Cowboys sometimes go hyper quick game against good pass rushes, which may not be the right approach against this Texans defense.

Derrick Henry's short yardage usage is killing the Ravens' offense; the team should involve Lamar Jackson more in short yardage situations instead of relying on Henry. The offensive coordinator appears to call a lot of Derrick Henry runs reactively the week after getting criticized for not using him enough.

Deshaun Watson was not buying a resurgence after revisiting tape from Week 3 against Carolina. He was 9 for 20 for 61 yards in the first three quarters, threw for 144 yards total, and had three turnover-worthy plays that didn't result in turnovers. Sheil Kapadia is not buying the narrative of improvement and expects potential mistakes against Pittsburgh's strong defense that could cost Cleveland.

Drake Maye should lean into the quick passing game, where he looks comfortable and has not thrown a single interception; he's 10th in success rate on quick game plays. The Patriots should simplify the offense against Buffalo, which allows 41% of quick passes to convert into first downs (28th league-wide), and keep Josh Allen off the field.

Elijah Dotson leads the Buccaneers in pressures with 48 pressures, which ranks 48th league-wide through Week 3. Mina Kimes characterizes the Buccaneers pass rush as "really underwhelming" this season, noting she expected it to be one of the "feistier, more like upstart" units.

Geno Smith has been playing quite well through the first three weeks; when he has time, the Jets' playmakers have been incredible. He's a veteran quarterback with Frank Reich as OC, better equipped to handle the Bears' creative blitz schemes on third down. The Jets' offense has been quite good and can keep the game competitive.

Smith looked incredible coming off his injury in Week 3 against the Chargers, displaying confidence and strong arm talent despite an interception late in the game. Mina Kimes was impressed by his performance and believes he is slinging the ball well.

Kittle is one of two essential players (alongside Christian McCaffrey) for the 49ers offense to function effectively; Mina Kimes emphasizes that as long as one of these two is healthy, Kyle Shanahan can scheme an unstoppable offense regardless of wide receiver injuries. The 49ers have been the best offense in the NFL through three weeks.

Nauta got going in Week 3 and is part of the Lions' offensive arsenal that will face a severely depleted Panthers secondary. He is mentioned alongside the elite receiving weapons as part of Detroit's offensive firepower.

Jamar Chase has been carrying the Bengals offense; two weeks ago he essentially won the game against the Texans single-handedly. The Bengals are now producing explosive plays at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, and Joe Burrow has the highest EPA on deep passes through three weeks, with Chase and T Higgins as primary beneficiaries of this explosive downfield attack.

Jalen Daniels is starting for Tampa Bay in place of Baker Mayfield. Nate Tice is a fan of him not as a starting quarterback but as a playmaker with leg mobility who can do fun things with his athleticism. He started 44 games in college and is described as toolsy and high-energy, though the offensive scheme and coaching context limit bullish projections.

Jameis Winston has not looked good in the first two weeks and has really struggled under pressure. Mina Kimes notes the JJ McCarthy trade adds heat on Winston to maintain his job. While the Arizona Cardinals defense is not very good, Winston's arm looks different and the kind of bad has changed—he's not taking downfield shots like he used to, and it just looks bad overall.

Williams is part of the Lions' elite receiving corps (alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown) that will face a severely depleted Panthers secondary missing both starting corners JC Horn and Mike Jackson to injury. This creates a significant matchup advantage for Detroit's passing attack.

Jayden Daniels is practicing Wednesday with return to practice status versus Colts remaining uncertain. Mina Kimes believes the timeline seems way too fast based on what the injury looked like on the field and expresses concern about rushing him back. The elbow injury looked cartoonish, and Kimes doesn't feel great about getting him out there, especially since Marcus Mariota is competent enough to run the offense.

Jeremiah Love is coming off a game where the Arizona Cardinals' rushing attack, particularly their duo runs, looked really good against San Francisco. Mina Kimes notes the Cardinals can move the ball on the Giants in a way Tennessee could not, and the run game should have success given the Giants' weak run defense. The Rams ran duo 13 times against New York in Week 2 and averaged close to 8 yards per carry.

Jeremiah Love was giving it to the 49ers' run defense on duo runs in Week 1 against Arizona; the 49ers' run defense is not good and is a weakness despite improvements in other areas. Love's performance suggests the Broncos should be able to run effectively against San Francisco.

Joe Burrow has the highest EPA on deep passes through three weeks of the season, leading a Bengals offense that is producing explosive plays at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The offense has evolved from a 2021 'bombs away' approach to a more balanced attack, but is now back to creating explosive plays at an elite rate.

Jordan Love's offense is ranked 29th in offensive success rate through three weeks, an unprecedented low for a Matt Lafleur offense. The inability to run the ball and offensive line struggles have severely hampered the Packers' offensive efficiency.

Justin Jefferson left the Vikings game last week with an ankle injury but is expected to play this week against the Dolphins, though he was not practicing on Wednesday. His absence last week distorted the Vikings' game plan.

Walker leads the entire NFL in yards after the catch through three weeks, a key metric in Andy Reid's highly schemed Chiefs offense that emphasizes short passes and YAC. This elite YAC production is central to the Chiefs' fifth-highest explosive play rate despite Patrick Mahomes' league-low 5.8 average pass depth.

Kenyon Sadiq has been one of the Jets' incredible playmakers when Geno Smith has time to throw; he's making plays on deep balls and contributing to the Jets' strong offensive performance through the first three games.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense have been one of the feistier, more underrated units in the NFL through the first few weeks. The offense is methodical and coordinated, not fluky, with a veteran quarterback. While the run game doesn't create explosives and ranks last in the NFL in that category, the offense can consistently move the ball and string together first downs, making them capable of scoring in the red zone.

Kyler Murray had his lowest success rate in a game for his career last week against the Bucs (ranked 98th out of 98 quarterbacks in drop back success rate); the Vikings' offensive success rate was the second worst of any offense in a game this season with only nine first downs. Murray looked very uncomfortable despite the win. He needs to show improvement against the Dolphins—doesn't need 300 yards, but needs to look like a more competent passer. This is one of the biggest storylines in the NFL to monitor because if Murray can perform like the 15th best quarterback, the Vikings have a real chance to make noise with their strong defense and Brian Flores' coaching.

Lamar Jackson looked incredible last week against the Cowboys; his game was one of the most efficient quarterback performances of any player this entire season. The Ravens create explosive plays and can hit on plays for 25+ yards, making their offense a machine. Jackson's season has the potential to be really special.

Marcus Mariota is competent enough to run the Commanders offense if Jayden Daniels cannot play. Mina Kimes notes he didn't look great in limited action but is able to run the offense competently, making him a viable backup option.

Pressure has been Stafford's kryptonite this year; he struggles with pressure more than most quarterbacks. The Rams are expected to go super run-heavy on early downs to keep Stafford out of high-pressure situations, especially if Nikua is back and Ferguson is out, using 11 personnel to punch the Eagles in the mouth.

Nico Collins is back and practicing for the Texans in Week 4 against the Cowboys, expected to return to the lineup.

Nico Collins is back in practice and expected to play in Week 4 against the Cowboys. Mina Kimes notes the Texans offense is "definitely a much better offense with Nico Collins" and can imagine a scenario where "Nico goes crazy, work in the middle of the field against these safeties." Despite dismissing the Texans' run game and offensive line, Kimes sees Collins as a potential bright spot in the passing game.

Parker Washington caught a touchdown from Trevor Lawrence last week, exemplifying the Jaguars' success throwing between the numbers where they rank third in EPA per play (0.41). Mina Kimes highlights Washington as one of the receivers benefiting from Lawrence's tight window throws in this area of the field.

Mahomes is playing at an elite level this season, described as looking 'out of his mind' and 'vintage old self.' His average pass has traveled only 5.8 yards downfield (last in the NFL), yet the Chiefs produce explosive plays at the fifth-highest rate and lead the NFL in yards after the catch. This represents a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy under Andy Reid's return, with Mahomes executing a highly schemed, short-passing attack effectively.

Travis Hunter's defensive role has expanded significantly week-over-week; he played a career-high 42 defensive snaps last week compared to only 5 on offense, with his role increasing every single week. He now faces Jamar Chase and T Higgins in a matchup that Mina Kimes views as a key fantasy focal point for Week 4.

Kelce is among the NFL leaders in yards after the catch through three weeks, a critical component of Andy Reid's highly schemed offense that generates explosive plays despite Patrick Mahomes' league-low 5.8 average pass depth. Kelce is also featured in a potential 'passing the torch' matchup against rookie Brock Bowers in Week 4.

Trevor Lawrence loves throwing between the numbers, and this is a perfect matchup against Cincinnati; the Jaguars rank third in EPA per play (0.41) throwing between the numbers this year, behind only Baltimore and San Francisco. The Bengals' defense has a clear weakness in the spine/middle of the field, with corners being their strength. Lawrence attempts tight window throws between the numbers, and Mina Kimes expects him to exploit this vulnerability, citing his recent touchdowns to Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington as evidence of his precision in this area.