Above and Bijan: The Falcons are Back, Plus Week 4 Winners and Losers

Alvin Kamara in a three-headed backfield with Kendrick Miller and another back; Saints' running game has not improved despite offseason investments in David Edwards and Travis H, indicating Kamara's workload remains limited and unpredictable.

Robinson continues to produce bonkers performances; in Week 4 against New Orleans, he and Brian Robinson Jr. both posted 57% success rate on the ground, but Bijan's explosiveness and ability to turn negative plays into positive ones remain elite. Mina Kimes and Ben Solak both emphasize he's the best running back in football. The Falcons' outside-zone scheme with Bijan crossing the line of scrimmage with velocity is nearly impossible to defend; even when defenses fire second-level blitzers, the Falcons' simple philosophy of getting Bijan moving downhill means he consistently solves problems at the point of attack. This is a team you do not want to fall behind to.

Over the last two weeks, Bijan Robinson and Drake Maye have combined for 680 yards from scrimmage, which would rank them 17th in the league in total yardage output if they were a team—right between the Bills and Chargers. The Falcons lead the league in yards from scrimmage over the last two weeks with 918 total, demonstrating Robinson's central role in the offense's recent success.

Over the last two weeks, Bijan Robinson and Drake Maye have combined for 680 yards from scrimmage; if they were a team, they would rank 17th in the league in total yardage output, between the Bills and Chargers—league average production from a running back and quarterback duo.

Mina Kimes is willing to argue that Bijan Robinson should be in the MVP conversation if the Falcons win the division, though she acknowledges the competition from strong quarterback seasons (Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence) will make it difficult; she expresses belief in the conversation for a running back MVP.

Brian Robinson Jr. posted a 57% success rate on the ground in Week 4, matching Bijan Robinson's efficiency. However, Bijan's explosiveness and ability to turn negative plays into positive ones remain the primary focus of the Falcons' running game.

Bryce Young's arm talent and twitch enable the Panthers to attack different defensive weaknesses through RPO schemes; his ability to get the ball out of the mesh point extremely fast allows them to exploit very small windows, and his mobility to break defensive structure on scrambles by freezing defensive ends and pulling defenders out of position creates explosive plays.

Bryce Young faces the highest quick pressure rate of any quarterback in the league right now, though this is somewhat conflated by the Panthers' RPO schemes which welcome pressure; however, outside of RPOs, he does have a propensity to hold onto the football, though he played faster in the Lions game than earlier in the season.

Bryce Young demonstrates exceptional composure and lack of panic under pressure, which is the most striking aspect of his play this season; he executes the Panthers' offense effectively and shows improved accuracy, particularly over the middle of the field where he has a 72% precision pass rate—the best in the NFL according to True Media, ahead of Trevor Lawrence.

Bryce Young's improvement in middle-of-the-field accuracy and comfort represents one of the bigger turnarounds in quarterbacking talent; this shift from being terrified and late on middle throws in 2023-24 to finding windows like Drew Brees is comparable to Sam Darnold's transformation from seeing ghosts under pressure to ripping throws, and it's integral to the Panthers' ability to attack defenses.

Bryce Young has shown an exponential level-up in performance through week four, with consistently improving numbers throughout his NFL career but now demonstrating a significant jump; Mina Kimes notes this represents a major step forward from his previous trajectory and warrants monitoring as the season progresses against stiffer competition.

CJ Stroud has been great this season considering the Texans can't run the ball and he was missing both wide receivers one and two for several games; he is not the problem with the Texans' offense, and the focus should shift to the defense's struggles.

Continues to perform at an elite level with consistent 19-20+ yard completions; there was a moment of doubt about his ability early in the season, but he has proven to be genuinely excellent and is playing at an MVP-caliber level.

Caught 17 passes in Week 4 against Houston; ran more routes from the slot in this game than in any other game under Brian Schottenheimer except one, exploiting Texans' coverage vulnerabilities and defensive communication breakdowns in the secondary.

Chase Brown and the Bengals' run game have dropped from around 10th in success rate last season to around 20th this season despite facing light boxes; the decreased efficiency on fewer reps is completely deterring the team from committing to the run, though the source notes this is only week four and development is not linear.

Chase Brown ran nine times for 10 yards in the Bengals' loss to the Jaguars, part of a broader offensive strategy where the Bengals were 80% pass in the game; running backs combined for 12 carries and 17 yards total, reflecting the team's abandonment of the run game despite it being an efficient running game last season.

Chris Alave receiving high volume in Saints offense due to their inability to run the ball; Mina Kimes is an enormous Alave fan but expresses concern about high-volume usage pattern, noting he was still in the game at the end of Week 4 despite the Saints' struggles, suggesting unsustainable target load.

Alave was on the receiving end of a well-executed throw from Tyler Shuck on an out-breaker route while Shuck was getting hit at his own goal line, demonstrating the receiver's continued role in the Saints passing game despite the team's offensive struggles.

Dak Prescott had a dominant performance against the Texans' defense, which recorded only a 2% quick pressure rate—the lowest the Texans have had in a game since playing Lamar Jackson in 2024; this stat is described as 'very impressive' and reflects the Cowboys' ability to carve up the Texans' defense.

Demonstrated elite pocket management and pre-snap reads against Houston's defense; consistently stepped up in the pocket to avoid edge rushers and was never wrong in his decision-making, with frequent 19-20+ yard completions and ability to get the ball out on time for receivers to break tackles.

DeMario Douglas was cited as a limiting factor in the Patriots' early-season offensive struggles. Mina Kimes notes that Douglas doesn't have the biggest catch radius, which was a point of failure in the static, high-precision offensive concepts the Patriots ran in Weeks 1-3. This was part of the reason the offense needed to simplify and move away from complex reads that required perfect execution from receivers.

Drake London is Penix's primary target and the receiver he trusts most. In Week 4, London was destroying Quincy Riley on the outside, and Penix clearly has much better chemistry with him than other receivers—he missed open targets like John Dotson on in-breakers early in the game but connected with London consistently. Mina Kimes noted Penix threw to London with Drew Brees-level accuracy but was less precise to other receivers. London also contributed as a blocker, cracking down on Saints defenders to spring Bijan Robinson on outside-zone runs.

Over the last two weeks, Drake Maye and Bijan Robinson have combined for 680 yards from scrimmage, which would rank them 17th in the league in total yardage output if they were a team—right between the Bills and Chargers. The Falcons lead the league in yards from scrimmage over the last two weeks with 918 total, demonstrating Maye's central role in the offense's recent success.

Drake Maye and Bijan Robinson have combined for 680 yards from scrimmage over the last two weeks; if they were a team, they would rank 17th in the league in total yardage output, between the Bills and Chargers—demonstrating league-average production from the rookie quarterback.

Drake May showed marked improvement in Week 4 after the Patriots made substantive offensive changes designed to reduce decision-making burden. Play action rate increased from 13% (Weeks 1-3) to 20% in Week 4; motion at snap rose from 32% to 52%; condensed formations hit 38% (highest of any McDaniels-May game, up from 23% prior). The simplified scheme with reduced pre-snap reads, more isolations, and quick-hitting plays like shovel options on first-and-10 created a calmer environment. May displayed improved poise, willingness to scramble versus man coverage reminiscent of his rookie season, and fewer disastrous plays, though he still had fumble issues. Mina Kimes notes the offense moved from static, high-failure-point concepts relying on May's precision to more forgiving, strength-based calls with better blocking schemes.

After the Jaguars game, there was narrative concern that Drake Maye was spiraling and that everything was terrible; however, Mina Kimes contextualizes this as the kind of overreaction that happens with young quarterbacks, noting that having experienced coaches like Josh McDaniels and Mike Brayble helps stabilize the situation.

Joe Burrow dropped back 54 times against the Jaguars and was hit 20 times in the game; both of his interceptions came because of pressure as the pocket condensed on him, illustrating the consequences of the Bengals' 80% pass rate and inability to establish a running game.

Joe Burrow stated after the Jaguars game that he thinks the Bengals should throw it more, citing that they're good at it and his line's pass protection is great; however, this reflects a one-dimensional offensive approach that leaves him vulnerable to pressure and hits when the run game isn't working.

Through two weeks, Penix is showing clear developmental growth in his 14th career start. He's hammering seams between the numbers and hashes (65% of attempts, 11-for-13 for 175 yards and a score in Week 4), placing the ball relative to coverage, and layering throws with different velocities—a marked improvement from his early-career fastball-only approach. His arm strength enables the Falcons' play-action attack to function as a kill-shot offense rather than just efficient peppering; off play action he's averaging 11 yards per attempt (third in NFL) with 62% of passes over 15 yards (first in NFL, excluding screens). Ben Solak notes this is an easy environment given the Falcons' historic running game production, but the film shows genuine understanding of the offense and functional athleticism to make play-action concepts work.

Michael Penix Jr. is positioned as a Comeback Player of the Year candidate if he maintains his current performance level; Mina Kimes calls him a deserving candidate who has returned from injury in the manner the award should recognize.

His presence dramatically improves the Texans offense; Mina Kimes stated she would vote for him for MVP, calling him 'the most valuable player in football,' and noting how much better the offense looks with him as the number one wide receiver.

Romeo Dobbs was identified as a consistent liability in the Patriots' early-season offense, with Mina Kimes noting he had a bad drop every single week during Weeks 1-3. This was cited as one of several points of failure that made the static, high-precision offensive scheme untenable and contributed to the need for offensive simplification.

Samaje Perine carried the ball three times for seven yards in the Bengals' loss to the Jaguars, part of the team's 12-carry, 17-yard total output from running backs in an 80% pass game.

Teddy Bridgewater (referred to as 'Ted' in the transcript) is being used extensively in the slot against the Lions, leveraging his size and frame to work the middle of the field where he boxes out DBs and gets leverage; he catches everything and has decent pull-away speed, making him an important part of the route tree despite not being a burner.

Teddy Bridgewater demonstrates exceptional quarterback-friendliness by adjusting his routes relative to coverage; he recognizes cover zero looks early (like getting into his route two steps early on a slant touchdown when the nickel fires), and on glance routes he bends his route back closer to the quarterback when he realizes he's getting doubled, ensuring the ball reaches him before the safety—a skill not all receivers execute, especially a 6'4" player traditionally on the outside.

Teddy Bridgewater put up 101 yards against the Falcons and has the ability to go 20 yards and shove a guy, adding a physical dimension to his game beyond the slot work; this production came without Coker in the lineup, making the Falcons' win over the Panthers look more impressive in retrospect.