The Dominator - Matt Kelley Talks Fantasy Football Regrets, Breakouts & the 2026 Fantasy Carnivals

Matt Kelley groups Alec Pierce among players to avoid in drafts, citing them as examples of putting yourself in a bad position by drafting receivers dependent on struggling quarterbacks or offenses before the season even starts.

Matt Kelley was very concerned about Alec Pierce this offseason, ranking him probably two rounds below consensus in wide receiver rankings; he cautions against drafting players injured in the offseason as it more often than not ends in failure.

Kamara has reclaimed significant workload in the Saints backfield after Etienne's disappointing week one. While Kelley notes Kamara will primarily see third-and-long situations (not fantasy-point-rich environments), his emergence as a co-lead back represents a meaningful shift in Saints backfield distribution and reduces Etienne's projected volume.

Matt Kelley characterizes Alvin Kamara as a good, reliable third-down back at this point in his career, not a major threat; notes he's likely to miss additional games due to lower body injuries stacking up, with age compounding injury recovery issues.

Matt Kelley identifies Braylon Allen as the number one most coveted running back in next year's free agency, believing Isaiah Davis is good enough that the team won't re-sign Allen. Kelley has seen enough of Allen's bell cow profile and skill set this year to project he could be a monster next year if given an opportunity, and he'll still be young.

Matt Kelley identifies Bucky Irving as a buy-high in dynasty, noting his usage has exceeded expectations; Kelley drafted more Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker than Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason because Gainwell only gained respect in his first year of recognition at age 30, and Kelley prefers to avoid players at peak hype. Kelley believes Irving has "plenty of room to run" and is buying high on him.

Matt Kelley is buying high on Bucky Irving, believing he has plenty of room to run and that the market is still a couple weeks away from fully understanding he's back as a bell cow back. Kelley views him as a potential buy low in all leagues despite the recent breakout.

Suffered a hamstring injury that initially appeared catastrophic (Kelley thought it was an Achilles) but could be a severe hamstring strain similar to Dak Prescott's injury a couple years ago, potentially causing him to miss 8-9 games; the injury mechanism and his fist-pumping on the cart created confusion about severity.

Matt Kelley believes Caleb Williams makes the Bears better as a quarterback, though acknowledges the team's offensive scheme may not be optimally configured around his talents; Kelley suggests Williams is a better prospect than backup-caliber quarterbacks like Mack Jones who will eventually get other opportunities.

Matt Kelley asserts that Caleb Williams makes the Bears offense better, contrasting with the Ewing theory discussion about star players potentially slowing down offenses; Kelley's conviction is that Williams' talent elevates the Bears rather than constraining them.

Matt Kelley identifies Chase Brown as a player negatively impacted by the Bengals' unexpectedly strong defense, which has become a problem for the team's offensive fantasy output. The improved Bengals defense reduces shootout potential and limits Chase Brown's scoring ceiling, as the team will not need to rely on high-volume passing and rushing to come back in games.

Matt Kelley notes that Chuba Hubbard fell into the laps of Hero RB or Zero RB drafters and became a reliable starter; Kelley himself drafted Hubbard multiple times across different leagues when forced to start someone week one, and he expresses satisfaction with the results despite initial skepticism from others like Coach.

Matt Kelley admits to repeatedly drafting Chuba Hubbard in double-digit rounds across multiple leagues, including dynasty, despite not having a sophisticated bullish case for him. He continued to acquire Hubbard even after Jonathan Brooks was drafted, suggesting sustained availability and value at his ADP. Kelley notes the Carolina offense comparison to the Lions was not a reason for his Hubbard acquisitions, indicating the value was driven by opportunity rather than scheme fit.

Colston Loveland is cited as a season disappointment; the intro questions "Colston Loveland has fewer points than who? Sam Rausch? What is this madness?" indicating he underperformed relative to preseason expectations.

Loveland is a two-way tight end talent with elite blocking ability who is on the field for every snap and running every route, but is not getting targeted; Matt Kelley believes this is a quarterback issue (new QB like Case Keenum or Tyson Badgent could solve the problem) rather than a talent concern, distinguishing Loveland from a Marvin Harrison Jr. situation where tape shows lack of effort.

Matt Kelley identifies Colson Loveland as a highly speculative, projection-based player who has face-planted hardest in 2025; instances where he was drafted ahead of proven players like Trey McBride despite barely having any NFL touches, exemplifying the risk of college profile projection over NFL production.

Njoku is injured; while Matt Kelley expresses sympathy for the player personally, he notes that Njoku's injury may actually be beneficial for the Chargers offense fantasy-wise, as it opens the door for Trey Harris to take on a more featured role.

Njoku was signed to a significant contract as part of an offensive-building strategy that Matt Kelley viewed as fundamentally flawed. The Chargers invested heavily in Njoku and Kohler despite building an offense optimized for Jalen Hurts' lateral-based system rather than Justin Herbert's vertical passing needs, representing a misalignment of personnel and scheme.

Matt Kelley notes that Deshaun Watson has exceeded expectations, though the bar was very low coming into the season.

Matt Kelley identifies Jamar Chase as a player negatively impacted by the Bengals' unexpectedly strong defense, which has become a problem for the team's offensive fantasy output. The improved Bengals defense reduces shootout potential and limits Chase's scoring ceiling. Kelley expects the disparity between Chase and other elite receivers to widen as the Bengals' defense strangles games in the third quarter, preventing the high-volume passing scenarios that maximize Chase's upside.

Chase is expected to see his disparity in production widen further; Matt Kelley notes that with Smith and Jigba taking over the wide receiver one spot in Dynasty on Player Profiler last week, the gap between Chase and other elite receivers is beginning to pull away significantly.

Undrafted from Holy Cross, Coker didn't receive expected respect but has emerged to perform on par with Tett McMillan, a top-10 pick; represents the type of small-school undrafted player who exceeded expectations this season.

Matt Kelley identifies Jalen Coker as an undrafted player from Holy Cross who "didn't get the respect" despite being in a great offense; Kelley groups him with players who exceed expectations due to small-school pedigree and offensive context.

Jalen Coker was available as a trade target in Dynasty and represents better value than holding Marvin Harrison Jr.; Matt Kelley regrets not accepting a straight-up Coker-for-Harrison trade when it was offered, as Coker has maintained value while Harrison has declined rapidly.

Coker is identified as a guy you want on your football team, similar to Trey Harris. While the transcript excerpt cuts off, Coker is mentioned in the context of the Chargers' receiver evaluation and the shift to 11 personnel, suggesting he may benefit from the offensive scheme change.

Coker is described as a guy you want on your football team, mentioned alongside Trey Harris in the context of the Chargers offense.

Matt Kelley indicates he and his team were bullish on Jalen Coker as a Carolina breakout candidate, positioning him as a preferred target in the Carolina offense stack strategy.

Matt Kelley notes that to acquire Jalen Coker in draft negotiations, you need to 'shoot higher'—implying his ADP or asking price is lower than his perceived value, requiring an above-market offer to secure him.

Matt Kelley observed Jalen Hurts at the 2020 Senior Bowl and noted significant struggles in 1v1 drills and point-and-shoot target throws, ranking Hurts as the worst performer in those specific drill categories compared to peers like Jordan Love and Justin Herbert.

Hurts struggled in 1v1 drills and point-and-shoot target throws at the Senior Bowl, performing worse than undrafted players in these situations. However, his skill set is optimized for laterally-designed offenses with crossing routes and late-progression options, which suits 12 personnel packages. The Eagles' offensive scheme is built around his strengths in evasion and breaking down plays on the run rather than vertical passing.

Still dealing with a high ankle sprain; Matt Kelley was cautious about drafting him for this reason among other factors, and the injury status played out as expected, validating the pre-draft skepticism.

Matt Kelley lists Jeremiah Love among draft regrets and players to avoid, grouping him with other risky early-season picks that put you behind before the season even starts.

Matt Kelley observes that Jerry Judy's target share has collapsed from an expected 15% to a projected 11%, describing him as completely done with all attention shifting to Denzel Washington; the mothballing of Judy is already evident.

Matt Kelley notes that Joe Burrow is 'pretty stable in Dynasty for this reason' (the Bengals' improved defense), but in seasonal leagues, 'he's just not going to be what we thought because you need the defense, especially the secondary, to allow teams to come back in the second half.' The Bengals' unexpectedly strong defense strangles games in the third quarter, preventing the high-volume passing scenarios that maximize Burrow's upside in seasonal formats.

Jonathan Brooks is highlighted as another speculative, projection-based player who has face-planted in 2025, now hitting IR; Matt Kelley notes he personally owned Brooks and was excited about the upside but acknowledges the disappointing outcome in hindsight.

Matt Kelley's coach suggested waiting on Jonathan Brooks instead of drafting Chuba Hubbard in a dynasty league, indicating Brooks was viewed as a potential handcuff or future starter in the Carolina backfield.

Matt Kelley observed Jordan Love at the 2020 Senior Bowl and noted his exceptional arm talent; Kelley described Love's ball as having distinctive initial power for the first ~10 yards of flight, comparing the sensation to watching a long-drive golfer whose ball leaves the tee with visibly different velocity and trajectory.

Matt Kelley expresses uncertainty about Jordan Tyson's fantasy value upon his return to the Saints, stating he doesn't know what Tyson is and prefers to hold Devon Vele while letting Tyson prove his worth.

Josh Allen started the year way out in front at quarterback and has maintained and actually pulled away with his lead; Kelley notes he could be in a similar position to where he started the season, with a commanding advantage over other quarterbacks.

Matt Kelley recommends targeting Josh Downs before he scores a touchdown, framing him as an easy value play and a basic principle-driven move to get ahead of his breakout.

Matt Kelley calls Josh Downs an obvious play with conviction, stating "It's Josh Downs season" and emphasizing his skill set matches perfectly with the Daniel Jones offense; the coaches have scripted plays for him at the beginning of week one and he delivered a productive non-touchdown performance in week two, setting up his emergence.

Matt Kelley notes that Justin Herbert was projected well and valued highly in Dynasty despite current underperformance; Kelley had projected him at 23 fantasy points per game based on his age-23 season when he could run and had elite arm talent and accuracy, but the Chargers offense is now short-circuiting and failing to utilize his skill set.

Matt Kelley observed Justin Herbert at the 2020 Senior Bowl alongside Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts; Kelley characterized Herbert as operating at a higher level than Love, describing Herbert's arm talent as 'love plus'—a quarterback with elite ball velocity and power on throws, similar to a long-drive golfer whose ball leaves the tee differently.

Herbert's offense is best when his first read is a deep shot and his progression goes deep to shallow; the Chargers have been asking him to scan laterally across the field, which he is not good at. The addition of Trey Harris as a featured deep threat will allow Herbert to operate in his optimal system, lifting the entire offense.

Herbert is the opposite of Hurts—he thrives in vertical passing schemes with field-stretching receivers and underneath targets, which is ideal for 11 personnel. The Chargers' injury-forced shift away from 12 personnel may actually benefit Herbert by allowing the offense to run 11 personnel almost exclusively, which is his optimal system. This represents a potential offensive improvement for Herbert's fantasy outlook.

Miller received 50% of the Saints backfield workload in week one but was inactive by week two, illustrating the volatility and lack of staying power in the Saints running back rotation. Kelley's comment 'thanks for handling half the workload. Now you're inactive for week two' underscores Miller's brief fantasy relevance.

Matt Kelley dismisses Kendra Miller as a major needle-moving running back, implying limited fantasy upside relative to market expectations or hype.

Matt Kelley avoids Kenneth Gainwell in dynasty despite newfound respect, reasoning that the first year people respect a 30-year-old running back is the year to reduce exposure; Kelley drafted more Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker instead, following his principle that peak hype is the wrong time to buy.

Kenneth Walker's absence from the Seahawks offense has contributed to the team not having as much of a run-first identity, which has opened up more opportunities for Jackson Smith-Njigba in the passing game.

Matt Kelley makes a bold 2026 prediction that Ladd McConkey will be a top-five wide receiver and top-five dynasty asset if the Chargers commit to running their offense through him. Kelley argues McConkey is necessary to get the Chargers out of their current struggles and that the team will realize they need him on every snap and play.

Jackson, like Jalen Hurts, struggled in point-and-shoot target throws at the Pro Bowl, which is not reflective of his actual skill set. Both players excel in laterally-designed offenses where they can evade pressure and make plays on the run, rather than in vertical passing schemes.

Matt Kelley warns against drafting Malik Nabers despite knowing he will eventually have productive weeks, cautioning that drafting players injured in the offseason more often than not ends in failure and puts you in a bad position before the season even starts.

Has been so disappointing that Matt Kelley says he couldn't have imagined how bad the performance would be; even R.C. Fisher, the original Marvin Harrison Jr. skeptic, would not have predicted one catch in two games while healthy; represents a historic underperformance.

Matt Kelley views Marvin Harrison Jr. as droppable in redraft and a sell-low in Dynasty after tape shows him going through the motions with lack of effort; Kelley regrets holding Harrison in Dynasty rosters and trying to get full value in trades, as the player's value has dropped so fast it cannot be recovered—he should have accepted earlier trade offers like a 2nd-round pick or Jalen Coker straight up.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has experienced a historic fall in 2025 despite elite pedigree (Ohio State, high draft capital); Matt Kelley notes the Cardinals' Michael Wilson contract extension signals they are no longer believers in Harrison Jr., and he has become a common thread in dynasty orphan pickups, difficult to move in most leagues.

Matt Kelley expresses strong skepticism about drafting multiple shares of Marvin Harrison Jr., calling it foolish; the context suggests Harrison Jr. underperformed relative to draft expectations.

Matt Kelley drafted Matthew Stafford in a league where he went tight end premium and super flex, using him as a depth quarterback to maintain flexibility while stacking elite skill position talent.

Michael Penix is an interesting super flex buy in Dynasty because he could go either way coming back from an ACL injury, but Kelley thinks he's going to go in a positive direction. The Falcons organization now has to commit to Penix after Tua never materialized as competition and Cooper Rush imploded; if he can have a couple good weeks, he could be valuable. Kelley notes Penix is rising in Dynasty rankings and is all the team has to save the season.

Michael Wilson has emerged as the Cardinals' preferred receiver over Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2025; the team's contract extension for Wilson signals organizational confidence and represents a role shift, with Wilson performing well when Harrison Jr. was previously sidelined.

Matt Kelley identifies Michael Wilson as a buy-low in all formats, arguing that the offense won't be the Trey McBride show all year; teams will game-plan to shut down McBride, creating boom weeks for Wilson similar to his second-half performance last year, and with Harrison Butker gone, Wilson's projection can now be calculated without that context.

Matt Kelley notes Nicholas Singleton starting the year inactive in week one is not a buy low because no one has moved him down; this is expected for a day three running back who will become active week two and start getting carries as the season progresses, a typical NFL pattern.

Gadsden's breakout was predictable from a fantasy perspective because the Chargers' offensive scheme was fundamentally misaligned with Justin Herbert's skill set. Dynasty and best ball players who drafted Gadsden early understood the offense would eventually need to feature him more prominently. Matt Kelley rated Gadsden very highly in FAB bidding suggestions on Patreon, even noting that if he were available in tight end premium leagues, the value would be exceptional.

Matt Kelley is targeting Parker Washington rookie cards and explicitly calling him a breakout candidate; Kelley notes Washington is a former undrafted rookie who is "about to break out and most people never saw it coming."

Parker Washington Plus was available as a trade package for Marvin Harrison Jr. in Dynasty; Matt Kelley regrets not accepting this offer, suggesting Parker Washington Plus represented better value than holding Harrison as his value deteriorated.

Matt Kelley notes that to acquire Parker Washington in draft negotiations, you need to 'shoot higher'—implying his ADP or asking price is lower than his perceived value, requiring an above-market offer to secure him.

Matt Kelley recommends buying high on Parker Washington, suggesting a favorable buy window for the receiver.

Matt Kelley recommends buying high on Parker Washington, using a skeet shooting analogy to suggest you need to shoot in front of the clay disc—implying you should get ahead of the market on Washington.

Johnston is positioned as the inferior option compared to Trey Harris in the Chargers' receiver room. Harris is described as a simply better football player, and with the offensive scheme shift to 11 personnel, Harris is expected to see increased snaps and featured routes at Johnston's expense.

Matt Kelley identifies Rico Dowdle as a buy low running back opportunity, citing very encouraging week one usage and noting he's incredibly cheap everywhere with people letting him go in all leagues.

Jackson Smith-Njigba is performing at an elite level even without Sam Darnold under center for the Seahawks, which underscores how good Smith-Njigba is in the context of that offense and defense.

Matt Kelley drafted more Sean Tucker than Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason, indicating preference for Tucker's value profile over Gainwell's peak-hype year.

Matt Kelley expects the Browns will eventually turn to Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and believes he could be a fun option for the team going forward.

Matt Kelley identifies Tee Higgins as a player negatively impacted by the Bengals' unexpectedly strong defense, which has become a problem for the team's offensive fantasy output. The improved Bengals defense reduces shootout potential and limits Higgins' scoring ceiling, as the team will not need to rely on high-volume passing to come back in games.

Matt Kelley views Tony Pollard as a buy low, betting that he will be traded from the Titans to a team with an injury need where he could be amazing in the second half with a better team. Kelley expects a rational front office to clear the deck for Singleton by moving Pollard, assuming he stays healthy.

Etienne ceded 50% of the workload to Kendra Miller in week one, then saw Alvin Kamara take significant work in week two. Matt Kelley notes that despite Etienne's large contract and the Saints' high-scoring offense, the fantasy point-rich opportunities have not materialized as expected. Projections have been adjusted downward to approximately 190 carries and 50 targets, which Kelley states is not RB1 production regardless of offensive context.

Matt Kelley indicates that drafting multiple shares of Travis Etienne was a sound strategy, contrasting favorably with the Marvin Harrison Jr. bust call; implies Etienne delivered value relative to draft capital.

Matt Kelley identifies Travis Etienne as a dynasty buy-low despite current market disgust; argues Saints' recent losses have forced shock hero ball and comeback situations, but schedule improves significantly with home games vs. Raiders, Atlanta, Minnesota, and later matchups vs. Arizona and Atlanta. Kelley expects Etienne to be ranked higher in dynasty rankings than some expect, explicitly stating "we are definitely not going to be burying him."

Harris becomes a more interesting fantasy asset now that the Chargers are forced to run 11 personnel almost exclusively due to injury. Harris is described as a simply better football player than Quinton Johnston and is someone you'd want on your team. With increased snaps, more routes, and more featured routes in the new offensive scheme, Harris has actual upside in the revised Chargers offense.

Harris is playing more snaps, running more routes, and receiving more featured routes; this increased role is expected to unlock the Chargers offense by giving Justin Herbert a deep-shot first read, which aligns with his optimal progression style (deep to shallow rather than lateral scanning). Harris had a 53-yard catch last week exemplifying the type of play that will propel the offense.

Matt Kelley acknowledges that Trey Harris will have some good weeks in the Chargers offense, but frames him as secondary to Ladd McConkey's role in the team's offensive strategy.

Trey McBride is cited by Matt Kelley as a proven player whose value was overlooked when speculative assets like Colson Loveland were drafted ahead of him; represents the safer, production-backed alternative to projection-based tight end picks.

Matt Kelley drafted Tyler Warren in a tight end premium league and found him to be a strong value pick that allowed him to stack elite wide receivers like Zay Flowers while maintaining positional flexibility.

Matt Kelley notes that Zay Flowers fell to him at incredible value in a tight end premium league, allowing him to stack elite wide receiver talent while waiting on running back depth.

Matt Kelley identifies a nice little buy window on Zay Flowers, indicating a favorable entry point for the receiver.

Matt Kelley identifies a nice little buy window on Zay Flowers, suggesting a favorable entry point for acquiring him.