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0:27To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
0:32Welcome in. Thursday, July 30th. Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway.
0:36Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. At the FFBallers over on X, Instagram.com slash FantasyFootballers.
0:41Jason's looking extra golfy today. That's a golfy shirt, is it?
0:44It is a golf shirt indeed. I have golf shorts on and it is time to do the laundry.
0:51So wait, did you... We golfed this morning and you showered.
0:55I did. I changed out of that golf gear into this golf gear.
0:59That's what I was wondering. So you switched from like the gear you played golf in to now gear you're not playing golf in.
1:07Correct. Because of the laundry. Because I've worn all my regular stuff.
1:11But you keep an abundance of golf outfits. I have definitely purchased a lot of golf gear.
1:17Do you... That is one of the keys to golf.
1:21My shirts in my closet are outrageous right now.
1:24Because I had a wardrobe before I took up golf.
1:27And now I have an entire golf wardrobe. Do you change at the turn?
1:32Well, if I need to, yeah. I mean, you know, you got to bring an extra shirt.
1:38How often do you need to? Well, usually it's the mustard and the ketchup from the hot dog.
1:44So yeah, it's pretty much every time. Hot dog ball.
1:47And sometimes he drives home from the turn. Yeah.
1:50Yeah. Sometimes you have to do that. I never turned around.
1:54Sometimes I wonder if Mike doesn't come to golf as much just because he doesn't want to follow the decorum and rules of golf.
2:02Which part? Like collared shirts and... The collared shirt part is pretty weird to me.
2:07I assumed it bothered you. Well, yeah. Because they're like, hey, your shirt looks just like mine.
2:13But that one. Have you seen what's going on with the neck?
2:17Holy crap. That's a fancy shirt. You'd feel the same way about like a fine dining, not letting you wear like a
2:25hat and you have to wear a collared shirt in a restaurant too?
2:29That one, I at least, I can vibe more with that one.
2:33Is it because of the like environment? Well, because you're all in an enclosed area.
2:39When you're golfing, it's like... They don't see you.
2:42No. The only people who see me are the people behind me because I'm so bad and too slow.
2:48I don't think Al Borland likes the dress code either.
2:52Luckily, he dresses like a golfer all the time.
2:55I do. But some golf courses make you wear a belt.
2:58I don't ever wear a belt. And... Why? Like you have to tuck in your shirt?
3:04And me and Kyle and Jason went to a restaurant once and I got turned away because I didn't have belt loops on my pants.
3:12Holy. I just can't stand dress codes, man. My man.
3:16I've been in the restaurant where they made me take the hat off.
3:20And what was under the hat was not good.
3:23It's like, you prefer this? And I was so self-conscious the rest of the time.
3:29We have a great show today. Unsolved Mysteries episode talking about...
3:32Belt loops? Yeah. Yeah. I didn't need a belt for the restaurant.
3:36I just needed belt loops. Oh. And I was wearing...
3:40I missed that. I was wearing some expensive joggers, but they didn't have belt loops.
3:45Wait a minute. You were wearing joggers? Yeah. What's wrong with that?
3:49I mean... At a fancy restaurant. That's like sweatpants.
3:52No. That's sweatpants to a restaurant. These are nice joggers.
3:56Yeah. Are they made of sweatpants material? No. Or are they made...
4:00When you walk, does it go... No. Khakis make that sound too, my guy.
4:04That's parachute pants. Unsolved Mysteries. Some NFL news to talk about.
4:08And the Ultimate Draft Kit is here. UltimateDraftKit.com. More updates to the mock draft tool have been made.
4:14We're getting the keeper support into those. And some other tweaks and changes to the settings for you.
4:20You'll probably see new updates to the UDK every day or two for the rest of August.
4:26The draft analyzer's in there as well. Mike, you were going to add something?
4:31I was just... The news. I mean, news is starting to pour out.
4:36Another... You're just saying you can get your news feed inside the UDK.
4:40Well, you can get your news feed, I'm saying, for the changes.
4:44Like, you know, you had... Like, the last month or so is really just a couple vibes here or there from some beat reporters.
4:52Now real stuff is happening, which... Like injuries. Always happens is the injuries.
4:57Yeah, that sucks. Yeah. All right. Quick question of the day comes in from Adam in Los Angeles.
5:03Hey, Ballers. How do you go about prepping for a live draft without a common ADP displayed and the randomness that can come from everyone following different ADPs?
5:12Should you reach earlier on players that you must have?
5:16Well, if you must have them, then probably. Or should you trust that players should fall to their, quote, normal ADP?
5:23It's a good question. I mean, our main league of record, we purposely every...
5:28We have a draft room. There is no ADP sorting there.
5:32You come prepared or you don't come. And so we're used to this format where you are...
5:37And I prefer it. Obviously, we have the UDK.
5:40That's what I draft with. That's what I bring to my draft.
5:45So the order of players I like are in there.
5:48But I do pay attention to the ADP on that.
5:51Like, our charts will always show the ADP of a guy.
5:55I'm not going to reach two rounds for a guy.
5:59Even if he's, like, the next up in the ranking, especially in the first half of a draft, that's just malpractice where
6:06it's like you still want to squeeze as much value as you can.
6:11So you will take some risks of letting a guy go that you know usually goes later.
6:16I will say that you also need to know your league.
6:20I know in our league, we're a keeper league.
6:23Rookies? Yeah. Rookies ADP, throw that crap out the window.
6:27If you want a rookie, you are taking him two or three rounds ahead of ADP sometimes.
6:32And so you just have to know that. That's not going to be the same in every league.
6:39Yeah. And positionally, like, you know, in our... Because we're in a keeper league, we know that there's a bunch of running backs that are kept.
6:47So all of a sudden that the shift of the supply of really usable running backs, it depletes rather quickly.
6:54So you have to know all those things. But have your rankings and just be ready.
7:00Just be ready to take your guys. Yep. Absolutely.
7:03All right. Let's talk news. News and notes from around the league.
7:07Okay. We have a decent amount to talk about.
7:10Jameer Gibbs, B. John Robinson, both on fifth-year option contracts, rookie contracts, not practicing on Wednesday as they await new deals.
7:17Get that money. Yeah. That will be happening very soon.
7:21I wonder, like, who's going to get it first?
7:24Like, what's the approach here? Are the Atlanta Falcons waiting?
7:27They're waiting for the Gibbs contract to set the baseline.
7:31Oh, man. They should be talking. Yeah. They should be a little collusion.
7:35No. The two general managers should be talking to each other.
7:39I believe that's called collusion. I was thinking B.
7:42John and Gibbs should be talking. Yes, they should.
7:45Whatever. Just go get the same contract. They're both going to get so much money.
7:50But it is interesting, the game of chicken, of, like, whoever goes second gets more.
7:55Yes. Because they'll be like, even if it's the quintessential, I want a dollar more.
8:00Whoever signs first, like, the smarter franchise is whoever, signs the first one to a contract.
8:06B. John Robinson is 24.4 years old. Jameer Gibbs is 24.3 years old.
8:10Same draft, same spot in terms of, like, the leverage is gone for both teams.
8:15I mean. Like, Algier's gone and Montgomery's gone. They're in such identical situations.
8:20They're the number one and two picks in most fantasy drafts.
8:23There's plenty of times where. And they both get paid.
8:27And right now they can't get hurt when they're waiting.
8:30Yeah. Where a veteran player is holding out for a contract and you're not sure if they're going to get it or not.
8:38There's no one unsure here. This is a situation where it's like, just figure it out.
8:44Jonathan Taylor. Let's try that again. Who was that?
8:47Jonathan Taylor. He is at practice. He wants an extension as well.
8:51He says, quote, I have faith. There have been some good conversations, but I have faith between my agent and the front office.
8:59So he is not. Okay. I'll hold in. That's one where if he was holding out, that would scare me a little bit more.
9:07He already did. Like, he did that years ago and then got the money.
9:12So maybe they have a better relationship now. Chris Solave has no restrictions in his, quote, full go.
9:18We love it. Jordan Tyson participated fully in 11 on 11.
9:22Love it. You're not going to love this one.
9:25The 49ers news is always 49ers news. We already, last show, Christian Kirk, not practicing.
9:30Right. No one wants to hear this. Ricky Pearsall, not practicing because of swellness.
9:35Swellness. You're thriving. You're really crushing it today, Andy.
9:38My knee is swell. Swellness? That's, I mean, I had, I had French toast for lunch.
9:43All right. That'll do it. Someone told me to get the.
9:47Do you feel swelling? Okay. So I've got. Somebody told me to get French toast because they said it would be good.
9:54And then I did. Here's what's really funny about that.
9:58Swellness. At lunch, you're doing just fineness. At lunch, at the end, Andy offers, if anyone wants some eggs, because we ordered
10:05from a breakfast place and it was just some like healthy eggs.
10:09It's like scrambled eggs. And I literally thought to myself, wow, good for you, Andy.
10:15You went healthy. You just. Oh, like I didn't eat enough.
10:18Like you didn't eat enough, but all you got was like some, some eggs.
10:23I didn't. Just find out. I got croissant French toast.
10:27Yeah, I did. You should try it. It's so good.
10:30Kyle is letting us know that swellness is a rare archaic word, meaning the quality of being swell.
10:36Well, Ricky Pearsall's knee is not swell. No. But it is swollen.
10:40Yeah. And the team says all options are being explored.
10:44There are concerns. He missed like six weeks last year with a PCL strain and then missed more time later with knee and ankle.
10:52And it's the same knee. Yeah. That same PCL.
10:55And all options. They are the S word. Surge.
10:58Being used. Yes. Yeah. No, that's the fact that it is the same knee that he had an entire off season for.
11:06And it is. It is. You all right? Yeah.
11:09Did you have some French toast? No. I saw a funny Slack message from you, Andy.
11:14You got me. Look, the issue here is it's already swollen up and it's the same knee that he struggled with last year.
11:22Yeah. They are probably going to have to rest.
11:25Didn't fix it. I'm not a doctor, but I mean, the options are rest more and pray more.
11:31And then hopefully it's fine. But what would lead you to think, oh, this time it'll work.
11:37It's terrible. That's a scary, scary proposition. I mean, the implications here, you know, Kirk, Pierce, all Mike Evans is.
11:44Kirk is banged up. Mike Evans is tied with Devante Adams as the two oldest players being drafted in the top 72 in fantasy.
11:52The first six rounds. Those are the two most vulnerable to, you know, I looked at this.
11:58I looked at the old players that we've taken, the top five that we've taken over the last three years in the
12:05top 72 and how things worked out. And the basic as the basic conclusion is this, that if you have age baked
12:13in as a discount, they kind of can work out.
12:16If you're paying up for them, they've been there's been some years where it can be injury.
12:22I mean, look at Mike Evans last year. He was a loss last year.
12:27Yes, he was one of the oldest again last year.
12:30And it was a loss because of all the injuries.
12:34But standing in the way of this is all to say standing in the way of rookie.
12:40Deshaun's dribbling. Yeah, is a 33 year old Mike Evans right now because Pierce saw and Kittle's hurt and Pierce.
12:46All's hurt and Kirk and Kirk is hurt. Yeah.
12:49And Jawan Jennings is gone. So and and all the news has been so positive around stribbling.
12:55So, yeah, dribbling is definitely a beneficiary here. But also, I do think I mean, Mike Evans, I stand a little bit more on an island.
13:04I mean, he is the clear one right now for this team is currently healthy.
13:09And I do think that there is I don't know what your study was as far as injury dip based on whether
13:17where that player has historically gone or just what rounds of the draft.
13:21But obviously, Mike Evans is not being drafted where he used to be drafted.
13:26No, no, he's he's priced where there's an age discount right now.
13:30Him and Adams are. So that's good. I mean, that's a good thing.
13:35You're not paying that. You know, somebody like Henry, like we're not pricing him factoring in age anymore.
13:41Like people just keep taking him at the top because we he's ageless or so it seems.
13:47All right. But there was also running back Jordan James, who seemed like he should be the favorite for the running back
13:54to position for the San Francisco 49ers. He suffered a rib fracture.
13:58So he will be out sometime, which opens that door back up.
14:02And it's basically Kalen Black, their third round selection till he is hurt.
14:07Yes. But Garendo is also hurt. You know that the electrical substation is it's already doing some work.
14:13Got one. Two. Got two. We have Falcons quarterback news to a tongue of Iloa suffered a flare up.
14:19He will be out at training camp. Oh, that's not good.
14:23But don't worry. Michael Penix is not cleared for 11 on 11 and it might be four more weeks.
14:30Yeah. So they are on. Hold the phone. They're throwing.
14:33They signed Cooper Rush. Oh, the two. Jack Strand.
14:36Yeah. The two injury right now. They're saying Gibbs more than B.
14:40Yeah. Yeah. Right now they're saying that it's a minor thing.
14:44It's, you know, days, not weeks for Tua. And in the meantime, Penix isn't out there.
14:49Tank Dell was not placed on the PUP to start camp.
14:53All right. But he will be held out of team drills to open camp.
14:58Yeah. Man, please get back, Tank. The world is better with you in it.
15:03Wasn't he a my guy the year he got hurt?
15:06Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. By one of us. I don't even remember who it was.
15:11That was yours. Yeah. All right. Chris Brazil, also pretty significant injury for the Carolina rookie.
15:16They're talking like eight weeks. Yeah. He was, he was carted off.
15:21Third round pick. Too early to tell. However, it could be pretty serious.
15:25All right. We've got a main segment coming up.
15:28Unsolved Mysteries. Diving into a number of questions and situations.
15:31And we'll find out what we think in just a minute.
15:35I'm just too old to be eating like a cake for lunch.
15:39I think. Probably. But it's just hard for me to resist.
15:43Because it tastes good? I think that if I didn't have, I wasn't like born with the genetics I have in my
15:51family, I could be one of the heaviest people on earth.
15:54You definitely eat worse than I do. A lot of times.
15:58Yeah. And you are in much better shape than I am.
16:02But you also work out more. So, you know, tomato, tomato.
16:06I will say when we went to the FFXpo, you also got a mountain of pancakes.
16:11Chocolate chip. I'll admit that that that was a mistake.
16:15Yeah. It was. It was. We got there and I was trying to tell you that pancakes are quite variable on the style in which they come.
16:24They could be like big, giant pancakes. Do you get a bunch of them?
16:29Do you get like a short stack? You got a bunch of big ones.
16:33This was the equivalent. This is the funny thing we do as people is we say cake for breakfast is ridiculous.
16:40Yeah. But then we say chocolate chip pancakes are acceptable, which is, I mean, what I got was the equivalent of a full birthday cake worth of thickness.
16:50Yeah. Yeah. Six inch deep, like, you know, eight by nine slice of cake covered that in syrup.
16:56And I felt ashamed of myself. But it was on the menu.
17:00Perhaps as a youth, I wasn't paying as much attention.
17:04You know, we had the chocolate chip pancakes or the smiley face stuff.
17:08I feel like the way they do it now, though, I think they're stepping it up.
17:14Well, they have. They have like that. That's more recent in history in giving all the bread in terms of like pancakes, the history of pancakes.
17:23Like and I like that. They're like, hey, American appetites, Mike.
17:26I don't know if you know this. They have increased cake for breakfast.
17:31No. What if I said I made it in a pan?
17:34You're like, oh, whoa, whoa. That's part of a balanced breakfast.
17:38Oh, yeah. It's in the name. It is right there.
17:42Yeah. It's just a cake in a pan that you cover with rich maple syrup instead of frosting and maybe sometimes have
17:49chocolate chips in it instead of sprinkles. Yeah. That you have in your oven cake.
17:54Right, right, right. Yeah. I would never have an oven cake for breakfast.
17:59But you put it in a pan. I'm in.
18:02We're we're a weird species. Yeah, we are. Here we go.
18:06So unsolved mysteries. All right. Our unsolved mystery. Number one that we're going to start with is should you buy the injury dip this year?
18:14There are four big names among others. Obviously, I mean, you could argue Jonathan Brooks and other players, too.
18:21But neighbors, Kittle, Tucker Craft, Patrick Mahomes. Jason, you know, we've had we've had conversations around buying the injury dip.
18:27Mm hmm. We looked up some information. Mm hmm.
18:31140 players from 2021 to 2025 who are either coming off of surgery.
18:35So they were limited in camp or they're picked or picked up a training camp injury like during camp.
18:41And so a pretty big sample size, 140 players.
18:45Just giving you the data before you answer the question.
18:4826 percent or 37 players exceeded their ADP. 57 percent failed to meet their ADP.
18:53That was 80 players in that sample. And then 23 players, 16 percent.
18:58They met ADP but did not exceed. So, you know, you look at that and you say like 42, 43 percent of
19:05them still worked out as a pick. Yeah. That's one way to look at it.
19:10Yeah. I mean, because if you meet your ADP expectation, then it's.
19:14Well, but keep in mind, you're buying a dip.
19:17So your expectation was for them to surpass lower.
19:20Of course. But I'm saying if they but you still drafted them like they gave you the points that they were drafted.
19:28You're hoping for more. No, I don't agree with that.
19:31Really? Yeah. Because I think buying the injury dip implies an expectation that surpasses the ADP 100 percent.
19:38Like I don't if I'm taking a player on a on a round, a multi-round discount and they perform to that round, I'm not happy with that pick.
19:47I would agree. I think generally speaking, you would you would not be happy with that.
19:53Obviously, not a bust. It didn't ruin your chance.
19:56But the opportunity cost of what what else you gave up in that round and more than 50 percent of them, 57
20:03percent didn't even meet that opportunity cost the same because they're they're meeting the they're meeting the price.
20:09So looking at this, this is 140 players from 2021 to 2025.
20:13This was a redo of a study that in 2018 on the things to remember episode, it was don't buy the injury dip.
20:21And at that time we had kind of looked at the data and it was really bad.
20:27It was like, you know, you more often than not, those dips don't pay off.
20:32Now, this data, you can argue whether, you know, you're happy or sad with not meeting the or with just meeting but not exceeding the ADP dip.
20:41Obviously, you can't argue that the majority, 57 percent.
20:45Correct. Failed to even get to the dip. 26 percent clearly happy with.
20:49So when I look at it, the way that I interpret that data is.
20:54Way more often than not, buying the injury dip doesn't pay off.
20:58Yeah, I would say that the idea of them paying off it for me, I interpreted that as outperforming the status quo
21:05at that spot and because you're trying to get a discount on them.
21:10So for me, 75 percent of the time, it doesn't work.
21:14So let's look at the specific players and how it applies this year because this year there's a handful of guys that we absolutely love.
21:22You know, a couple of tight ends in George Kittle and Tucker Craft that were dominating in fantasy last year other than their injuries.
21:30And then obviously Malik Neighbors who looked like he was going to start on the pup, didn't even start on the training
21:38camp pup and is running routes today and looking very good.
21:42Let's just put it this way. Neighbors, Kittle, Craft.
21:45Where do they go if there is no injury?
21:48Malik Neighbors goes in the first round. Yeah, for sure.
21:51You think he goes in the first round? If he was never injured, absolutely.
21:56He would be up there with... He was in the first round last year.
22:01At 112? That was with a, you're not sure we have a good quarterback.
22:06And George Kittle, you're talking about him... Fifth round?
22:09Yeah, probably. So he goes behind McBride and Bowers.
22:12Yes. But much higher than ninth round. And then Tucker Craft probably goes ahead of Kittle.
22:17Yeah, I would agree with that. Maybe even ahead of the...
22:21He'd be there with... In the second year guys?
22:24Loveland. Yeah. So that's kind of where, like, if you apply that data the way that I'm thinking about it with where
22:32they belong versus the discount you're getting, like, you know, if you drop Malik Neighbors at 402 and you get the performance
22:39of 402, would you have been happy with Malik Neighbors?
22:42Because I think you're going to appropriate these guys into spots that maybe isn't the same thing as what you would get there.
22:50I don't know. No, yeah. I don't think you would be happy with that.
22:55I mean, you're talking about wide receiver selection that you're trying to swing for the fences as opposed to right next to...
23:03Being drafted at the same spots, T. Higgins. You know, I would imagine that that would be a better pick than someone
23:10that is drafted and just barely performing at this level of a draft pick.
23:15So it seems like the ADP for Neighbors is likely to rise significantly.
23:19That video looked like it. Yeah, there's a video of him, you know, he's running, cutting, running routes.
23:26And seeing the video, he is 100% doing all those things.
23:29That doesn't mean he's ready to play football. No, but it's better than not seeing him do it.
23:35It is, except it's not better for ADP. No, but it's also way better than the video where he was at the
23:43celebrity baseball game and he looked like he couldn't round first.
23:47No, he looked like he had a stilt on or something like that.
23:51But so when you look at Neighbors, Kittle, Kraft, Patrick Mahomes, is the reward there in the draft to outweigh the risk of taking these players?
24:00Obviously, if you take Kittle and he doesn't start week one, you're now rostering two tight ends, right?
24:06You've traded the selection for Kittle and another pick to fill in for Kittle for a time.
24:12What is your outlook based on that data for those four guys?
24:16So I think everyone is priced, I think, appropriately.
24:19Like Malik in the fourth is, that's an expensive pick.
24:23There's great players going around there. But the upside is by the end of the year, you have a wide receiver who's returning first-round value.
24:31Kittle, because of the age and when the actual injury was, it was in the wild card round and it was an
24:39Achilles, where we just don't have tons and tons of data on guys tearing their Achilles.
24:44Betts did talk about the fact it's a mid-tendon injury.
24:48He said it's closer to where the tendon meets the muscle of the calf, and that is generally good news for Achilles' recovery.
24:55Outcomes are more favorable. But like you said, he does have age working against them.
25:01He does, but he's going in the ninth as about the tight end ten.
25:05I don't feel like the three of us have taken him in any mocks there.
25:10No, not usually. When he's been on the board.
25:14I haven't. I mean, I've been – the only one of these guys that I've been drafting is Malik Nabors.
25:20I think at the fourth-round value, that dip is big enough to where when he gets back to health, and I am
25:28aware that it's going to start slow, I'm willing to take that on.
25:32When he ends up rising from this, I'm probably also out on Malik Nabors because I think he'll end up – if
25:40he is on track to play week one and the videos look good, keep in mind he will – usually these players
25:47will have a period of time where they're not back to peak performance even when they're on the field.
25:54I imagine he's going to be drafted around like A.J.
25:57Brown, Nico Collins. So that would be like early second round right now.
26:02And that would be too expensive for me. The other guys I'm pretty much out on.
26:07Well, the one thing I was going to bring up was Patrick Mahomes just in the fact that his ADP has dropped
26:15every year for the last three years. But now – so our expectations for him are very low.
26:21They were going to be low if he was 100% healthy ending last year with the run that he had in fantasy.
26:28But ninth round Mahomes – he was fifth round Mahomes in 2025, third round Mahomes in 2024.
26:34Now he's ninth round Mahomes. He's basically like – I mean, he's a really late round quarterback.
26:40He had the torn ACL and LCL, not placed on the pup, not going to see the rushing production from last year.
26:48That's the issue. Because last year so much of his fantasy production came from the running game.
26:53He couldn't find someone to throw the ball to, and he scrambled like he had never done in his career.
27:00Had a ton of rushing yards, rushing touchdowns. Really had that dog in him.
27:05He was, you know, willing them on drives with his legs.
27:09That will vanish this year for two reasons. One is the injury, and two, they should have a running game with Kenneth Walker there.
27:17So if you take that away, I don't love the upside.
27:21He was quite a few fantasy points per game higher than his previous two years last year.
27:27Yeah, because the past few years have been horrifically bad.
27:30His passing numbers averaging 256 yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game.
27:34Like, you take away a good chunk of that rushing, and those numbers are not going to be getting done.
27:41He was on pace for over 500 rushing yards last year.
27:45So his points per game would have, you know, looking at last year, still not been good enough to be – I
27:52mean, that still would have put him outside the top 12.
27:56I don't think they've done enough to convince me to be in on Patrick Mahomes.
28:01George Kittle, to me, at that spot – because, Jason, I'm with you – of if you don't get an elite tight end, just wait, just wait.
28:10Because they don't make a difference anymore. They're all the same.
28:14George Kittle could be a difference. It comes with a huge amount of risk, but the risk of those other players is none, but the upside is none.
28:24Does that mean Tucker Kraff's off your board in the sixth round?
28:28No, not – no. So I think – I'm open to it.
28:32I think that – I am less open to it, but I'm – that one I feel like I'm holding my breath on.
28:40I know, Mike, you've talked about you're pretty in on Tucker Kraff.
28:44Yeah. What he was doing last year was an impact difference maker at the position.
28:49But you've got to spend a higher pick on a player that might not be their weak one.
28:55Yeah. That's why I'm out. I'm out on – Younger player, and his injury was in November.
29:01What was the latest? So the latest we've seen, he was – so he's on the pup.
29:07If you didn't hear that, Tucker Krafft is on the training camp pup to start.
29:12And he said, quote, I'll probably come off the pup here very soon.
29:16That was him? It's quoted as I. It was not sourced to Tucker Krafft.
29:21But – Probably. I'm just going to do some analysis here.
29:25Unsolved mystery number two. Can the streaming quarterback strategy still work in single quarterback leagues?
29:30This was something we talked about. But I feel like ad nauseum from probably the first year we started the show through maybe like five or six years.
29:39Because it was an elite strategy. So some data as you kind of craft your answer to the question.
29:46But some data that's interesting about the streaming quarterback strategy and what we've seen evolve in the NFL.
29:52Well, if you look – and Dwayne McFarlane tweeted this out.
29:56So this is where the data comes from. But the number of quarterbacks to throw for 250 yards a game.
30:03We were at 17 quarterbacks in 2016. 19 quarterbacks in 2018.
30:0616. 16. Yeah. Then in 2022, 2023, it was 10.
30:10And then 10. So I guess when the two shell started hitting.
30:14It started becoming very popular. Now, in 2024, there were eight of them.
30:18Last year, there were seven. So, I mean, we had a year in 2018 of 19 quarterbacks with 250 yards a game.
30:26Again, that's an average. That's the average of 250 yards a game.
30:30Now it's seven. We used to shoot for 250 and two when you're streaming a quarterback.
30:36And we're not seeing that as a very common average.
30:39Yeah, not an average across the season. But that's the point of streaming, right?
30:44Is you can find a matchup in a game where a guy who you would not usually expect averaging 250 and two
30:51should go out there and throw for 250 and two, if not more.
30:56Now, we have also seen the fewest total pass attempts last year in the last 15 years.
31:02Yeah. But scramble rates have risen. And that's where, when we're talking about late-round quarterbacks, streaming quarterbacks, you're looking for those guys that can scramble.
31:10That's today's NFL is using the legs more. That's better for fantasy football.
31:15So that's Jackson Dart. But we're more aware of that.
31:18And so those players are getting pulled up in drafts.
31:21Exactly. That's what happened. That's why the strategy, you know, if you're saying, oh, it hasn't worked as well lately.
31:28Yeah, because the average fantasy football player is wising up.
31:32This year, though, you still have a handful of guys who are interesting because they fit the bill.
31:38You know, 10th round or later, at least from the 80 p.m.
31:42I'm seeing right now, Bo Nix. Like, what's his rushing floor?
31:46300? Yeah, that's the floor. He should hit 300 yards.
31:49Tyler Shuck. I love him. He should hit 300 rushing yards.
31:53The next guy. Malik Willis. He could hit 500 rushing yards.
31:57Like, Malik Willis. He could hit 800. Malik Willis is the...
32:00So, along, though, with the rushing, because the rushing is just the floor.
32:05You need the passing to take you over the top to become a weak winning type of a quarterback.
32:11So that's the question for, like, in my opinion, I'll just do Shuck versus Willis.
32:16I'm so much more confident in the offensive passing attack of the Saints and Tyler Shuck.
32:22Certainly. But you're only getting, you know, I'm not getting Malik Willis rushing yards.
32:27But if Willis and that team, if they can figure out a way, that's a large but.
32:32I'm trying to figure out how, like, when your wide receiver one's probably Malik...
32:37Huge but. Probably Malik Washington. And we're talking about, like, Greg Dulcich as a sleeper.
32:42But if Malik Willis can find his way to 200, like 200 to 215, and he's...
32:48And you're getting, you know, one and a half to two passing touchdowns, then goodness gracious.
32:53So, all that being said, do you believe the late-round quarterback strategy...
32:57Yes. ...with including streaming, not just finding a nugget, but, like, actually having to play week-to-week streaming can still work?
33:04Yeah, I still believe it can. I do, too.
33:07Yeah, I mean, there are names we like. I mean, I think no matter what we say on the show, even if
33:15every show was dedicated to Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, those players' ADPs are not moving.
33:20So, there are going to be players like that, like Baker, Daniel Jones coming back, that are going to be out there
33:28for free on waivers every week, unless you're in a super flex league.
33:32So, yeah, it makes sense. All right, unsolved mystery number three.
33:36Number three. What does offense look like with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel?
33:40It'll look sexy. You think? Oh, I do. I think the offense is going to be great.
33:46It will look very different. It's a team that ran Justin Herbert into the ground, not just because of a bad offensive
33:54line, but also they didn't bring tight ends in line very much.
33:58They utilized 12 personnel on just 6% of their offensive plays.
34:02That's the lowest rate in the NFL. McDaniel, you know, he is a guy that's going to come in, and you look
34:09at the transactions, they brought a fullback in. They brought in two tight ends.
34:14One is a blocking specialist, David Njoku and Charlie Kohler.
34:17The offensive line just got so much help. Two all-pro tackles that weren't there last year.
34:23So, I think it's going to change a lot.
34:26To your point about Kohler and Njoku, like Mike McDaniel was one of the, you know, at least in Miami, maybe it was personnel related as well.
34:35But he only had three or more wide receivers on 41% of plays.
34:40He likes the two tight end sets. We were very, well, he likes two running backs.
34:45Sure. Like he, Mike McDaniel is willing to ebb and flow with trends or personnel.
34:50I know that having two running backs out there, the amount of time he did, you know, like from 23 on, he had A-chan.
34:58And it's like, well, A-chan's a running back, but he's just, he's a real versatile player.
35:04We need to get him involved in the passing game.
35:07So, what will it look like? I think you will have more 12.
35:12The idea of them running out Hampton and Keaton Mitchell is pretty interesting as well.
35:17Well, I mean, they also brought in Ingold to play fullback in front of Hampton.
35:22Yeah, you can count him too. You can count him too.
35:26In those personnel. Now, I, it's hard because the Chargers feel like, they feel like a team where like you go in
35:33to the doctor and the diagnosis seems like it's so simple.
35:37And he's just going to write you the most basic script and you're going to go home and get well.
35:44And now we're on like year five of like, you know what?
35:48You have, you, maybe you have a different disease than we thought.
35:52And we keep trying a different shot and a different medicine and a different vitamin.
35:57And we are always left with an illness. I think the personnel matters.
36:02And, and last year I was very excited for them.
36:05Yeah. I was going to say, we were, we got to be honest about like last off season with the Greg Roman combo.
36:13Right. But we were in that boat. But it's the, the, the thing that happened, the biggest change to me.
36:20I mean, we've talked about it a bunch, but they lost their two superstar tackles.
36:25So they went, I mean, look at it this way.
36:28Herbert had led the league in percentage of dropbacks pressured.
36:32That's the first quarterback since 2018 who led the league in that stat and made the playoffs.
36:38He was, they just didn't have an offensive line.
36:41Then they went out and got one of the best centers.
36:44Yeah. And now you get two all pro tackles.
36:47Like you're going to go from one of the worst to one of the best lines.
36:53And why didn't they give Greg Roman a pass and keep him?
36:57Why didn't they? Someone's got to take the fall, man.
37:00Well, but I mean, why can't they just say, yeah, we're our offensive line was all beat up.
37:07I mean, I feel like it was, I think it's oversimplistic to blame the offensive line by itself.
37:13So here's a question about the Chargers offense for fantasy.
37:16We just talked about it and it's great for fantasy.
37:20A lot of times people think you want more wide receivers on the field.
37:24You don't. The consolidation of only having two means that the targets go to the players that are on the field.
37:32However, there will be far more of that for the Chargers than what we're used to seeing.
37:37So the question comes down to Ladd, who is their best wide receiver.
37:42Like he's their best wide receiver, but he's been, you know, his slot rate the last two years, 71%, 64%.
37:49I just have no worries about Ladd getting on the field because I don't think Mike McDaniel's an idiot.
37:55Fair. If I thought he was an idiot, then I would, like if this was Nathaniel Hackett, not to, but you know, like a true idiot.
38:04You are saying Greg Roman's an idiot. No, he didn't.
38:07I mean, no, I'm not. He didn't take Ladd McConkie off the field a bunch.
38:13No, he just put him in the slot. No, no, no, that's the idiot part.
38:18The idiot part is not playing Ladd McConkie. It's not where you play Ladd McConkie.
38:23It's not playing him at all. So the fear with the breakdown of too wide is that McConkie will not be a part of it.
38:31Yeah. And I have no fear of that. Yeah.
38:34He should 100% be on the field for that.
38:37Last year, Trey Harris technically led the wide receivers in snaps when they were in the two wide receiver set.
38:44I'm just saying. Oh, I'm not laughing at you.
38:47I'm getting made fun of for saying McConkie. I had French toast.
38:52He's swelling again. I had French toast. And you know what?
38:55I'm happy I did. It was delicious. Malconkie calling.
38:58But if you look at it, what's funny is, I don't remember who tweeted it, variation of where wide receivers line up.
39:06One of the players that never moves the most was Quentin Johnston.
39:10Like he just doesn't do anything else. From college on.
39:13And the versatility is going to help in this offense for Ladd McConkie.
39:18This is a really big one for training camp to let us know.
39:22When McDaniel came in, he had a lot of very nice things to say about Qge.
39:28So it's like, well, then we expect him for sure to be one of the guys.
39:33Then is it going to be Ladd on the outside?
39:37And now you get some Trey Harris talk coming up who is like, he is a good wide receiver in his own right.
39:44He just hasn't had a lot of opportunity in the NFL.
39:48So it's pay attention here. To me, a lot of what happens with Los Angeles is that, and maybe why it's frustrating, is they're just made for conversation.
39:58I feel like every offseason we have tons of conversation around the Chargers since Herbert became their quarterback.
40:04And there's a lot of positivity around all their players.
40:07Every offseason. But I'm at the point now where I want to see it proven out on the football field.
40:14And I don't feel like we ever allow for the middle outcome.
40:18That you're just kind of okay. Is that what you think?
40:22What do you think this offense, regardless, throw the years in the past in the garbage or whatever, this offense, do you
40:30think they will be a middle offense, a top offense, or a poor offense?
40:34Not every offense has the opportunity to reach a top five offense.
40:38And this one does with the personnel and the coaching.
40:42But no, I think the most realistic outcome is that they are a 8 to 15 offense on the positive side.
40:49I think that's the most realistic outcome for the offense.
40:53Yeah, I usually like splitting the league when I think of offenses in thirds.
40:57To really think like the top third offense are good offenses and the bottom third offenses are ones I want to avoid.
41:05I think they'll be in the top third, which I think you think that too based on the 8 to 15 is more in the top third, right?
41:14No, no, it'd be more in the middle. Because a third means there's three groups.
41:20Yeah, but it goes past 8. 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.
41:24Yeah, 11. I mean, you can't evenly split 32 and 3.
41:27Well, if I say 8 to 15, like what numbers are more in the middle?
41:32Well, but do you count 11 as the top third?
41:36Because you can't. Oh, because there's 32 teams. Yeah.
41:39I did break it up 10, 10, 10 in my head.
41:43We shouldn't have really been. No, that's, hey, you can take two teams and just be like, Cleveland, we don't count you.
41:50We will get our calculators out. Well, I will say with the Chargers, if you're going to draft them, I think their schedule matters a ton.
41:59They open against Arizona where they're nearly 12-point favorites.
42:02Then they play the Raiders where they are 8.5-point favorites.
42:06This is incredible. Like last, it's just a reminder.
42:09Last year, Justin Herbert in week one scored 28 fantasy points and became so locked into everyone's roster that you're like, we did it.
42:17It's happening for Justin Herbert. Then it fell apart.
42:20I bring that up because week three is set up to do that again.
42:25Week three is at Buffalo. Week four is at Seattle.
42:28Seattle, then it's Denver, and then it's on the road against Kansas City.
42:33So while I think they're going to have a great first two weeks.
42:37Saying sell. I'm not saying sell. I'm just saying be honest with yourself about what just happened.
42:43Yeah, let me audit. They're going to beat the crap out of two of the, like Arizona and Vegas.
42:49Let me audit my comment. Bottom four teams. I think they will be a top one offense for two weeks.
42:56Okay. Let's take a break. I'll be right back.
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43:03The same Monday.com with built-in AI. Scaling your work from day one.
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43:11Go to Monday.com and try it for free. All right.
43:14We have two more Unsolved Mysteries in time for one more.
43:18Oh. So you guys get to decide. Oh. We either talk about the Unsolved Mystery of Lamar Jackson bouncing back to elite form for fantasy football.
43:27Okay. Or we discuss the backfield for the Jacksonville Jaguars and how it will be split.
43:32Oh, well, that one's not a mystery. For Mike.
43:35I think it's right now not a mystery for Mike or I.
43:39Yeah, I'm. Yes. I'm a little gassy. Yeah, baby.
43:42Welcome. I'm a little gassed up. Come on, boy.
43:45Let's go. Let's go. This is the day. Today is the day that Chris Rodriguez just got.
43:51Yes. Active to go make plays at camp. To go train on the side.
43:56Yeah. Yeah. But he can do it now. I simply.
43:59Look. Tootin should. I mean, he's a high upside.
44:03All the offseason. Hold on. Let me find it.
44:06Chugga chugga. Where's our offseason, you know, best player in camp so far.
44:10But we haven't seen anybody else. Just saying. So are we discussing that one?
44:15Yeah, let's go there. Let's go there. No, I don't want to.
44:19How will the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield be split? Travis H.
44:22And Jr. Is vacating 312 opportunities, 260 carries, 52 targets, six receiving touchdowns.
44:27We have a lot of red zone attempts that he had in that offense that are, you know, going to be up for grabs.
44:35I think that's part of the discussion, right? Yep.
44:38But 53 rushing attempts inside the red zone. That was the fourth most in the NFL.
44:44And those are gone. So you got. That says.
44:47It's a great offense. That's what that says. You've got a great offense that was in the red zone at a time.
44:54And the guy that got the ball the most there.
44:58I mean, that's right behind McCaffrey, John the Taylor, Derek Henry, James Cook.
45:02And blank space for Jacksonville. So. Chris Rodriguez was one of the offseason signings.
45:07Had played at Kentucky with Liam Cohen. Not placed on PUP.
45:11Not starting to do individual drills at camp. He's coming off foot surgery.
45:15He did not participate in minicamp. Bashal Tootin. Sophomore.
45:18We brought it up on the show. When Liam Cohen talked about him, he said in year one, did a lot of
45:26great things, but also had to learn a complicated offense.
45:29Pass protections. You know, figuring out what to do.
45:32And a lot of it was not reacting. A lot of it was thinking.
45:37A lot of it was processing. And we all saw, you know, to me, what I saw the most out of Tootin
45:44as a rookie was explosive plays that ended up just happening more in the passing game.
45:50On a play here or there than it was, you know, chunk plays in the backfield over and over again.
45:57But he has that capability. He's a fast runner.
46:00He's 4-3-2. Yeah. At 2-0-9. Like, this is, he is, his build.
46:04Oh, boy. I'm sorry. You just seen the glass eater?
46:07Yeah. Yeah. I'm just, we got another. Oh. That was a good quote.
46:12Now, we've had a, hold on, we've had a crayon eater before and we know who that is.
46:18And his favorite color crayon is blue. Yes. Did we ever, hey, social guy, did we ever share that?
46:24Yeah, we did. Okay. Yeah, Cam Scadaboo said his favorite crayon.
46:28I don't follow him. He's a crayon eater, right?
46:31We got another category, Mike. Liam Cohen came out on Wednesday and said.
46:36This is troubling. About Crod. About Chris Rodriguez. He doesn't say a ton, but he's tough.
46:41He's one of those glass eaters. He is. He's going to run through a wall for his teammates, for his coaches, for their organization.
46:49So we're eating glass now. Okay. Which is more dangerous than crayons?
46:53Oh, yeah. By a, children can eat crayons. Are crayons like completely like non-toxic?
46:58Non-toxic? I think they probably have to be. Huh.
47:01There probably was a time where they were very toxic.
47:05It'd be a fun poop. Eating a toxic, oh, just a regular.
47:09No, not a toxic poop. Okay. A non-toxic crayon poop would be a colorful adventure.
47:14The glass one would be a painful. I think it would be a colorful.
47:19I think it would still be brown. There's only one way to find out.
47:24Oh, man. There is only one way to find out.
47:27Google. The Falcon just throws in the Slack channel, $2,000 and I'll eat a box.
47:32Oh, my gosh. Falcon, we know that Josh will do it for way less.
47:37Josh would eat a box of crayons for way less money.
47:41Let me take lowest bids from the newsroom. Okay.
47:44Now, we're already down to $1,200. Keep the bids coming in.
47:47$1,000. Wait, wait, wait. Wait, are we talking like 64 counts?
47:51No, no, no, no. Standard. 16? Children's. Whatever that is.
47:5512, 16. The normal pack. We all know what that is.
47:581,000. 900. 800. 400. Whoa. Oh, there we go.
48:01There we go. Let me tell you this. Okay, now we're into a price we might do it.
48:08We're out of range. Some of them might be eating crayons.
48:11We're out of range where I chip in 100.
48:14You guys chip in 100. We just needed one more.
48:18We got to get it to 300. Oh, Jeremy's in.
48:21Jeremy's good for this. First $300 for a box of crayons.
48:25That's $300. I'll chip in. That's what I mean.
48:28Oh, yeah. I'll take care of that. Matt, you're on the hook now.
48:33I got a new letter I want to buy.
48:36Are you eating a box of crayons for 400?
48:39I have good news for you. This might change.
48:42This might change. Yes, eating a box of crayons can make your poop colorful.
48:47So there is actually not just money in this, but an exciting time.
48:51Crayola has tested their products to ensure they pose no poisoning risk, though eating them is still not recommended due to the crayon.
48:59Oh, man. A box of 24 is the crayon standard.
49:02Okay, so we'll get back to this. 300 and you got a deal.
49:07400. I'm setting the line at three. Four. All right, you chime in if you change your mind by the end of the show.
49:15You said you have a new putter to buy, but you must not want it that bad.
49:21No. Listen, this does matter. Like, Crayola is a glass eater.
49:25Yes. And Crayola is a good player. And there are 53 red zone opportunities available.
49:30Chris Rodriguez, there's a fatigue and kind of like dismissal of him because of the years of injury and not getting opportunities.
49:37He was 4-5 a carry last year on a decent – I mean – I think it's more than – Six touchdowns last year.
49:45Yeah. No, he was actually – he was – some of the advanced metrics for Chris Rodriguez were very good.
49:52We've always liked him. Like, as a show, Crayola, we've always said when he gets his opportunities, he's been pretty good.
49:59But it does really seem like he's the backup, for one.
50:03Simply, he's coming in. He's got to learn this new offense that Liam Cohen said it took – it was very hard to learn.
50:11And so that – Well, he knows it from Kentucky.
50:15But go on. I doubt they're running Kentucky's offense still.
50:18But then you have – the biggest question to me in this backfield is who's going to catch passes.
50:25Because Travis Etienne, that's where his fantasy points came, was really in the receiving game.
50:30That is an important part of this offense. Now, neither one of these guys have a huge production profile in the NFL.
50:37But Crayola, year one as a rookie, had two targets.
50:41His number went down to one in year two.
50:44In 13 games played. And then last year in 13 games, he got his new career high with four targets on the season.
50:52So it's like that really – maybe he does steal the goal line.
50:56And that could be a problem. That's a problem.
50:59It is also possible we should keep the door open.
51:03One, the undrafted free agent running back, LaQuinn Allen, could be involved in the receiving game.
51:08He is a good pass protector. And so – but it does seem like if you're taking your shot on someone who's
51:16going to be, one, explosive, and two, involved in the passing game where most of the fantasy points are going to come
51:23from, it's – you know, I'm gassed up for Tootin.
51:27Also in the range of outcomes is that Bashal Tootin is a total workhorse.
51:31You know, it's like when Cohen was in Tampa Bay, when healthy, Bucky Irving was – he was the running back position.
51:39And truly, A. Chan Jr. was the running back position last year for the Jags.
51:44So, you know, we don't have a full gigantic sample here to go off of.
51:49But Cohen might just be one of these guys that's like, no, I don't want to tip.
51:55You know, I don't want to tip the play.
51:58Because if you have Krod back there, my defense that I'm calling in is I'm calling in a run stop.
52:05So I guess a good way to put it would be are you ever – if Tootin doesn't get gassed up –
52:12That's current – ADP-wise, which he will. But let's just say Tootin is drafted at the top of the fourth round.
52:20Because I think he probably will be. Top of the fourth round would be a substantial ADP jump for where he's going right now.
52:28Yeah, he's not going to go a 506, though.
52:31If the current – okay, make it 501. Okay.
52:34Okay, make it 501. Is there any chance you're going to be disappointed with that pick?
52:39100%. You think so? Yes. There is. Tootin's profile to me is a very risky pick.
52:45But the upside is a three-down running back for a top-five offense in the NFL, which will be very, very substantial league-winning capability.
52:53Travis Etienne is a good, well-rounded player, but I don't think he's the best of the best.
52:59And he was the running back 10 in fantasy football last year for this offense.
53:04You can tell Jason has made a significant shift in his Tootin mentality.
53:08I am worried about the liability of a box of crayons.
53:12So here's where I'm at. Oh. I mean, everything I'm seeing, non-toxic.
53:16Safety-y. They're more disgusting than dangerous. What's our lowest bid for one crayon?
53:20One crayon? We don't need 24 crayons. I just want to know.
53:2450. Okay. 40. $40 for a crayon? Now I'm feeling bad about doing not pay them enough.
53:30I'm out. Okay, 40. $40 for a crayon? Now let me ask you.
53:35Is the box of crayons for 400? No, it's 300.
53:38That's what it always was. Yeah, that's fine. I'd like to go higher if that's an option.
53:44Like more crayons? You'd like to eat more crayons?
53:47I thought you meant more money. I was like, this is not how negotiation works.
53:52$300. $300 for a box, $40 for a crayon.
53:55You decide. It's your choice. Up front. This is all off the record now.
54:00I just feel like our liability goes up with the more crayons we make them eat.
54:06Yeah, no, we're going to take this outside of the office.
54:09Yeah, TBD. But I do feel like this is nothing to do with the company at all.
54:15This is just friends goofing around, but social content.
54:18You know what I mean? Well, I mean, they would want to see our friends.
54:23Just documenting history. You guys can pay me and I'll pay Matt.
54:27Just to launder that a little bit. I would actually never ask, but would you like to ask?
54:34You know what? I am out. I will not be doing this anymore.
54:38Yeah, you guys shouldn't. Matt, you should have taken the deal.
54:42You didn't take it. We're done. But Jeremy has a question for you.
54:46Yeah. $40 for one crayon? Or $300 for a box of crayon?
54:50Would you like to offer me $400? I would not.
54:54I mean, you could be the last $100 of that $400 if you want the box.
54:59But I'm worried about impaction. He's got bowel problems already.
55:03That's my mind. I go $35. Oh! What is this?
55:06I'm back in. I'm back in. One crayon? Did you do more research?
55:10He's got the dog. It's one crayon. I'll do it for $30.
55:15Oh, my gosh. Okay. $30. This is great. Oh, my gosh.
55:18You could be doing it for the lint in my pockets.
55:22That sounds like you wanted more. I mean, yeah.
55:25How about $10? And then capitalism showed up. Yeah.
55:28Yeah. What a delight. All right. Sold to Matt for $30.
55:32That's between you and him. Yeah. I don't know what you're talking about.
55:36I have no idea what you're talking about. But we...
55:40Oh, it looks like the... If you do it, capture the social stuff.
55:44It looks like somebody bought a couple boxes. Yeah.
55:47They're on the way. Hopefully through your personal account.
55:50All right. That is going to do it for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
55:56Five days a week coming up in August. On Monday, we have the Ice and Fire episode.
56:02Oh, baby. So that's our next episode, right? Correct.
56:05Because Saturday is August 1st, which we go to five shows a week, Monday through Friday in August.
56:11Amazing. This Saturday, there won't be an episode of the Fantasy Footballers.
56:15However, on the YouTube... Oh, yeah. Okay. Our miniseries is back.
56:19It is. People have been hoping that we brought it back.
56:23If you want a short-form version of the Fantasy Footballers, just the highlights, just the tips.
56:28Just the tips by the Fantasy Footballers. YouTube.com slash the Fantasy Footballers.
56:32We just recorded those. Getting ready to release them.
56:35August is here. We're getting ready for the season.
56:38Ice and Fire, ranking shows, mock drafts, my guys, MVPs.
56:42It's all coming this August. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
56:48Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.
