10 fantasy data points you need to know for Week 6

The Cowboys have 71% of their air yards concentrated between two players, placing them second behind the Falcons (80% to Drake London) and tied with the Packers (70.6%) in air yard concentration among top receiving duos.

AJ Brown is not available for the Patriots; Drake Maye is connecting on downfield throws and improving without him, suggesting the offense is developing independent of Brown's presence.

Bucky Irving has been the bright spot in the Buccaneers offense, delivering excellent games; Matt Harmon hopes the team continues to give him the football, suggesting Irving's role and production are more reliable than the pass-catchers in Tampa Bay's spread-out passing game.

Williams' impending return should restore explosive plays to Bears offense (currently 19th in explosive play rate vs. 7th in 2025). However, McFarlane notes the challenge is whether Caleb can keep the offense on time and avoid long down-and-distance situations. Caleb struggled early in season with staying on schedule; Ben Johnson wants to run offense on time. Caleb's tendency to wait for big plays rather than taking short completions may limit upside for certain receivers.

CeeDee Lamb is part of the Cowboys' top receiving duo that accounts for 71% of team air yards, placing Dallas second in air yard concentration behind the Falcons and tied with the Packers.

CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens represent a one-two receiving concentration for the Cowboys, who have 71% of air yards going to two players; this is described as a discount on depth, with no meaningful third receiving option.

Brooks was not in the Packers game Week 5; Pierre Strong Jr. was active, but Chris Brooks was getting more of the role early in the week before the game. Harmon notes this makes it tricky to assess the Packers running back situation.

Chris Godwin has a 14% target share in the Buccaneers' extremely spread-out passing offense, which ranks third-highest in three-plus receiver sets; the offense distributes targets across six players with 10%+ target share, making it difficult for any single receiver to accumulate consistent fantasy production.

Matt Harmon highlights Watson as part of an "extremely concentrated duo" with Matthew Golden in the Packers passing game alongside Jordan Love. With offensive line improvements (veteran band-aids stopping the bleeding), Harmon expects the passing game to "go to the moon," making Watson and Golden some of the best picks of the year.

Christian Watson's role has been completely changed; his average depth of route is way down from historical levels, with him in motion and lining up all over the field. Despite still maintaining a deep average depth of target, his route tree shows he's doing many other things—getting in-breaking routes, motion to protect from coverage, and opportunities to work after the catch, similar to Mike Evans' recent usage.

Christian Watson is one of the two primary air-yard recipients in the Packers offense alongside Matthew Golden; if the run game becomes functional, this increases the potency of the offense overall and Watson's receiving opportunities.

Matt Harmon compares Rhamondre Stevenson's potential upside to Chuba Hubbard's current production, noting that Hubbard is playing better than Stevenson right now and is a low-end running back one when active. Harmon suggests Stevenson could reach a similar tier, making him a strong RB2 play with upside.

Kmet has 8.4 average depth of completion on completed targets through five weeks, second-best on Bears offense behind Odunze. Caleb Williams' return should improve explosive plays and deep ball accuracy, potentially benefiting Kmet's role in the intermediate passing game.

Loveland has lowest average depth of completion on Bears at 4.38 through five weeks. McFarlane notes Loveland is rotating at 70% route participation, and his short-range role is not conducive to benefiting from Caleb Williams' return. Loveland's role remains limited and inconsistent with rotating snap counts.

Loveland is rotating at 70% route participation rate and went earliest in drafts as a top-three tight end; he's being kept back to block due to offensive line issues, which limits his receiving opportunities despite his success at the end of last season.

Matt Harmon has downgraded Loveland to borderline tight end one after he was drafted as a top-three tight end; he has a 50% contested catch rate on fewer contested targets than Burden, but the role compression from Khalif Raymond's 16.7% target share limits his ceiling.

Corey Kiner played 60% of snaps and had 67% of rushing attempts in the fourth quarter of Week 5, but this was in a blowout game context when Rhamondre Stevenson had already accumulated the bulk of the workload earlier in the game.

Drake London accounts for almost 80% of the Falcons' air yards going to their top two receivers, making him the dominant target in Atlanta's passing game.

Drake London accounts for nearly 80% of the Falcons' air yards, with two players taking up over 70% of team air yards; this concentration reflects the limited receiving depth in Atlanta's offense.

Drake Maye has improved significantly over the last couple of games; his overthrows are gone and he is now connecting on downfield plays. He is doing this without AJ Brown, and the Patriots offense looks very different than it did in Week 1. This improvement supports the upside of Patriots skill position players like Ramond Ray Stevenson.

Wilson is having a great start to his career and is one of the 10 best receivers in the league; he came off an awesome game against Cleveland where he was open consistently against both man and zone coverage, and the environment is now at a point where his top-10 receiver talent can translate to elite fantasy production.

Garrett Wilson is on pace for 105 catches, 1,271 yards, and 10 touchdowns—all career highs—and is crushing environment-sensitive per-route stats with 2.35 yards per route run and 11.3% first downs per route run despite playing 18% of snaps in the slot; he's averaging 14.5 PPR per game.

31% target share on the season; two games over 23 fantasy points, one at 16.7, one at 13.9, and only one dud at 5.7 in first five weeks. Matt Harmon emphasizes Wilson doesn't need an elite quarterback, just a serviceable middle-of-the-pack one like Geno Smith, who will lock onto him. Geno attempted tight window throws with Seattle and will make those throws to Wilson. Scott Turner, his coach, praised Wilson's ability to get open against any coverage (man, zone) and noted his 93rd percentile success rate versus man coverage last year. Harmon is "very young on Garrett Wilson" and wishes he had drafted him more; currently a low-end WR1 in fantasy.

In dynasty, Harmon feels Wilson belongs closer to rank 10 than 15-19 right now; this is the lowest he's ever ranked Wilson historically. Despite younger receivers like Jalen Waddle, Jalen Coker, and Lad McConkie rising, Harmon views this as a great time to buy Wilson in dynasty given Jets could look different next year with potential rookie QB. He advises not overthinking the QB situation and not selling low; Wilson should be sold high as a low-end WR1, not below that price.

George Pickens is part of the Packers' top receiving duo that accounts for 70.6% of team air yards, placing Green Bay third in air yard concentration behind the Falcons and Cowboys.

George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb represent a one-two receiving concentration for the Cowboys, who have 71% of air yards going to two players; this is described as a discount on depth, with no meaningful third receiving option.

Likely ranks third in NFL with 9.4 targets per game and second with 69.6 air yards per game; holds 30% target share leading the NFL. Historical comps with similar utilization (8+ targets, 65+ air yards per game) averaged 16-18 fantasy points per game; Likely currently at 7.1 PPG with utilization score of 95. Dwayne McFarlane projects him as tight end three or four rest of season, behind Bowers and McBride, with potential to average 16.8 fantasy points per game based on utilization trends.

Likely is essentially the Ravens' slot receiver, running routes on 83% of team dropbacks and operating in the slot on 71% of snaps. With Malik Neighbors at only 16.7% slot snap rate, Likely consolidates the slot role. Against the Texans in Week 7, targets typically funnel over the middle of the field, creating a favorable matchup for Likely's role.

Harmon is a "huge Coker guy" and suggests he's a good trade target if you have depth at receiver (e.g., Christian Watson, Mike Evans) and need to upgrade your running back room. Coker is valuable enough to move in a same-position trade to improve overall team construction.

Jaden Reed's injury removes him from the Packers' receiving depth chart, eliminating a potential downfield target option in an offense where Matthew Golden and Christian Watson are the primary air-yard recipients.

Harmon expresses frustration that Waddle, acquired via first-round pick trade, is being used in a part-time role. He wishes he had Garrett Wilson over Waddle on some teams, suggesting Waddle's limited usage is a disappointment relative to the capital invested.

After a strong Week 5 performance, Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy both signaled confidence in Jalen Warren as Pittsburgh's future at running back, with McCarthy explicitly stating he's the team's future player despite Rico Dowdle's eventual return. Harmon notes Warren is performing like a poor man's Jameer Gibbs and should not relinquish the job, positioning him as a high-value play with long-term role security.

Dwayne McFarlane identifies Love as a buy-low after scoring 6.5 and 2.2 fantasy points over last two weeks; league managers are panicking and dogpiling on him. Strong three-week rushing trend: 78% of carries three weeks ago, 71% last week. In Week 4 before ankle tweak, he had 75% snap share and 67% rush share (higher than the breakout week). Last week vs. Lions, he played 11% of snaps in fourth quarter (blowout), but in first half had 74% snap share, 90% rushing attempts, and 42% route share. Cardinals are actively handing him the RB1 job. McFarlane projects him as low-end RB2 rest of season with ceiling as low-end RB1 (17-20% of the time). Perfect buy moment when market sentiment is worst.

Love is nursing a new ankle injury after tweaking it in Week 4 second quarter. Last week vs. Lions, he was limited to 11% of snaps in fourth quarter due to injury management in blowout, but played 74% of snaps in first half when game was competitive. Concern exists about whether Cardinals will push him given nagging injuries and whether he could be scripted out of games.

McFarlane cites multiple one-for-one trades on fantasycalc.com showing Love's depressed market value: straight up for Cam Saquon (Love preferred), Keaton Mitchell, Denzel Boston, and Lad McConkie. McFarlane would take Love over Saquon in a straight-up deal and over McConkie if you need a running back. These trades show how low the market has pushed Love and represent a buying opportunity.

Harmon notes that with Packers offensive line improvements (veteran band-aids stopping the bleeding), the passing game is positioned to "go to the moon." Love benefits from an extremely concentrated passing game with Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, making them some of the best picks of the year.

Packers have protected Jordan Love significantly better over the last two games, still giving up a high pressure rate but with improved offensive line designs that allow Love time to push the ball downfield—the core of what the offense wants to do.

Raymond has 5.0 average depth of completion through five weeks, indicating limited involvement in explosive plays. With Bears offense struggling to generate explosive plays (19th in explosive play rate through five weeks vs. 7th in 2025), Raymond's role remains limited and unlikely to improve significantly with Caleb Williams' return.

Raymond has a 16.7% target share that nobody projected; he's been more involved than expected in the first three weeks, but his opportunity is fading over the last two weeks and his gimmicky designer plays are going nowhere, potentially opening the door for Loveland and Burden if his role continues to decline.

Kenny Gainwell has an 11% target share in the Buccaneers offense, which is part of the team's extreme target distribution across six players with 10%+ target share.

Burden has 6.7 average depth of completion and operates in the mold of short-range targets that Caleb Williams tends to avoid. McFarlane notes Burden may have been better with backup quarterbacks (Case Keenum, Tyson Bajent) who rely on dink-and-dunk passing. Despite season-high 79% route share last week and team-leading target share, Burden's role may not improve with Caleb's return since Caleb prefers to wait for big plays rather than taking short completions.

Burden has a season-high 79% route share but is rotating with other receivers; he has the highest target share on the team but runs the most difficult routes with the highest average depth of route, limiting immediate fantasy utility despite Ben Johnson's play-action scheme designed to create easy opportunities.

Burden has the most contested targets on the team (50% contested catch rate) and hasn't clicked on anything beyond gimmicky designer plays; he needs to show more success in intermediate areas where he demonstrated capability in his rookie season, but hasn't finished those plays effectively.

Lloyd had the hot hand after Week 5 game with two or three really good runs; coaches like his willingness to lower shoulder pad and get lower than defender for extra 2-3 yards and first downs, rather than trying to hurdle. This physical, downhill approach is the kind of thing coaches prefer. Lloyd has an opportunity if he continues this approach, though it's just one data point.

Harmon identifies Golden as part of an "extremely concentrated duo" with Christian Watson in the Packers passing game alongside Jordan Love. With offensive line improvements, Harmon expects the passing game to "go to the moon," making Golden and Watson some of the best picks of the year.

Matthew Golden has had a dramatic turnaround from year one; he's now playing on the outside against top-tier cover corners and beating them. His hands are exceptional this year—he brings them late and quick, snatching balls out of position like a magician and tucking them away rapidly. His hand talent mirrors his college superpower, and while he has occasional drops, his ability to make big-time catches means he'll continue to get targeted despite imperfect ball placement.

Matthew Golden is receiving the downfield air yards in the Packers offense and has demonstrated late hands that were part of his prospect profile; this skill has shown up this season after he was cycled through various roles early on. Matt Harmon credits Golden's late hands as a key part of his receiving profile.

Evans is not yet playing a full-time role (no 80% route share yet) but is managing workload and still dealing with a rib injury; however, he's getting deep shots and is in the window of the quarterback much more often, operating in a Kyle Shanahan scheme that's the best he's ever played in, with more vertical looks and multiple receiver sets.

Evans is upgraded to mid-range wide receiver two this week with another strong week moving him to WR1 territory; he has a 31% target per route run (second in NFL behind Jackson Smith-Njigba) and ranks third in yards per route run at 3.05, smashing against man coverage.

Evans' go route rate has dropped to 16.8% this year (lowest on record) as he's getting downfield looks via deeper corner routes and out routes on sail concepts in the Kyle Shanahan offense; his comeback route rate is 4.7% (highest among receivers with 100+ routes), showcasing elite route-running technique at age 33.

Evans has favorable matchups ahead: Commanders (+4.3 PPG boost to WRs), Falcons (neutral), bye week, Raiders (+3.7 PPG), and Cowboys (historically poor coverage); Matt Harmon called him a 'bye high' in the utilization report, suggesting his value will only increase after these matchups if healthy.

Evans has a utilization score of 82 in his three healthy games; historically, 51% of receivers with that score finish as WR7-12, making his median outcome a high-end WR2; Harmon says you can buy him as a mid-range WR2 and still profit, and trade data shows people haven't woken up to his value yet.

Strong Jr. was active in Week 5 Packers game, getting some snaps, though Chris Brooks was getting more of the role early in the week before the game.

After Trevion Henry left the game, Stevenson played 86% of snaps, 75% of rushing attempts, and 60% route share—elite workload metrics. Matt Harmon projects him as a borderline running back one at worst as long as Henry remains out, with four consecutive weeks of favorable matchups (Jets +2.4, Bears +1.2, Dolphins +4.7, Packers +3.4 fantasy points per game to opposing RB rooms), positioning him as a plug-and-play RB2 with potential to finish as a low-end RB1.

Mike McCarthy indicated that despite Rico Dowdle's eventual return from injury, Jalen Warren is now Pittsburgh's future at running back, suggesting Dowdle will not reclaim a 50-50 split or primary role. This signals a significant downgrade to Dowdle's fantasy value and role going forward.

Odunze leads Bears pass catchers with 13.7 average depth of completion on completed targets through five weeks. However, McFarlane notes Odunze is stuck on the boundary with the deepest average depth of route on the team, mostly working deep. While Caleb Williams' return should improve explosive plays, Odunze's role may not benefit as much since he's already working downfield and Caleb tends to wait for big plays rather than taking short completions.

Odunze is in the least conducive role despite being on the field; he runs the most difficult routes and has a 75% contested target rate, with losses coming in difficult areas that are hard to overcome mentally, limiting his fantasy upside despite his touchdown against the Eagles.

Matt Harmon has downgraded Odunze from a wide receiver three (draft position) to wide receiver four to five territory for the rest of the season due to role limitations and contested target struggles.

Ted Hurst has an 11% target share in the Buccaneers offense but functions more as a deep threat than a traditional tight end; his role is specialized for big, chunky deep shots rather than consistent volume.

Trevion Henderson has a high ankle sprain with an uncertain timeline; the injury is expected to sideline him at least a couple of weeks, though high ankle sprains can extend to four weeks or longer. His absence opens up carries for Ramond Ray Stevenson.

Tucker Kraft is involved in the Packers offense but does not receive downfield looks; his role is winning in the short area and generating yards after the catch, not deep receiving work. As he gets healthier, his involvement may increase, but the downfield air yards are going to Matthew Golden and Christian Watson.

Harmon doesn't regret Zay Flowers bumping Garrett Wilson in his dynasty rankings, suggesting Flowers is a worthy alternative to Wilson at receiver.

Zay Flowers, like Emeka Ibuka, benefited from a favorable matchup against the Cowboys' weak coverage, catching a long third-down play late in the game; however, the coverage breakdown was not repeatable and does not indicate a sustainable trend.