1st quarter season review: Offenses to BUY and SELL in fantasy rest of season

Matt Harmon identifies AJ Brown's return as a key catalyst for Patriots offense improvement; Brown coming back opens up more offensive options and schematic flexibility for the team, which showed tangible improvement in Week 4 (8th in pace score after ranking 27th Week 1, 18th Week 2, 26th Week 3).

Matt Harmon cautions against relying on Aaron Jones as the Vikings' primary running back; at 30+ years old, he is boom-bust and inconsistent, though Harmon suggests this may be acceptable given the Vikings' strong defense and special teams.

Under Kevin Stefanski's offensive scheme with the Falcons, Bijan Robinson is the primary focal point of the offense alongside Drake London. The offense is designed to run every play concept through Robinson, with no wasted plays on auxiliary receivers. Stefanski is credited for not overthinking the scheme and committing fully to Robinson as a centerpiece.

Nate Burleson is buying the Falcons' offensive improvement and specifically credits Bijan Robinson's run game as real and foundational to the offense's ceiling. He notes Bill Callahan's offensive line coaching has provided a spark, and Robinson's rushing production is a key reason the Falcons have improved from 26th to 1st in offensive efficiency over the past two weeks. Burleson expects the Falcons to remain much better than their first two weeks, though not quite at the elite level of weeks 3-4.

Bo Nix struggles to push the football down the field or to the outside, creating a tight, constrained Broncos offense. Harmon notes this is consistent with Nix's process and playing style—he's the same age as Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy but operates with less vertical aggression. The lack of a downfield passing threat creates a trickle-down effect where defenders don't have to respect deep coverage, allowing them to play closer to the line of scrimmage as the game progresses.

Bo Nix's process and play style are consistent with his historical performance; he's the same age as Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy but hasn't shown explosive development. While there may be a short-term spark from coaching changes and national attention, the underlying concern is that 'leopards, cheetahs don't change their spots.' The Broncos offense is at best a bottom-half unit, not bottom-10, but the passing game will be extremely volatile based on whether Nix hits one or two big plays. From the pocket on Sunday, Nix's average air to the sticks was negative 4.3, which is 'absolutely incredible' in a negative sense—indicating no space in the offense and a check-down-heavy approach that prevents plays from breathing.

Jordan anytime touchdown prop at +775 odds is a sprinkle play; backup tight ends get red-zone looks when Cowboys deploy big-body formations; Cowboys expected to have multiple red-zone plays in this matchup.

Matt Harmon views Brian Robinson as one of the best bench holds available; he has standalone upside and can be flex-relevant in certain weeks against bad run defenses, similar to Tyler Algier's role. Harmon actively pursued him on waivers as the exact type of player he wants on his bench.

Bowers is the ace of the Raiders offense; he's the star and primary target despite the team running heavy personnel packages with multiple tight ends and receivers. Matt Harmon notes the Raiders are a historic outlier in how little they get from wide receivers, instead concentrating production through Bowers and fellow tight end Michael Mayer.

Bryce Lance is seventh in the NFL in routes and is one of the fastest players in the league; Matt Harmon, who was 'super bullish' on him, notes the Saints are trying to get him going with both burner usage and more traditional route concepts. Lance is currently an auxiliary player in a one-two receiver setup but Harmon is 'buying into' the offense's potential to feature him more.

Irving's goal-line usage has regressed; the Buccaneers have shifted back to Sean Tucker at the goal line after Matt Harmon was initially excited about Irving's usage in the first couple of weeks, reducing his red zone opportunity share.

Caleb Williams suffered an injury during the Bears' Week 3 game against the Vikings in rainy conditions, which contributed to the Bears' 27th-ranked offensive performance that week. The injury occurred in difficult weather that limited offensive execution.

Matt Harmon notes that Caleb Williams and Golden Watson will benefit from the Packers' more static offensive scheme combined with increased pace; the team will be "chucking it" frequently due to a weak run game and aggressive defense, creating a "print fest" for fantasy purposes.

Lamb benefits from Cowboys' pass-heavy game plan against Buccaneers; Matt Harmon expects methodical offensive approach with explosive fourth-quarter execution; Cowboys offense trending upward (11th, 6th, 12th, 4th weekly rankings, 7th overall) and expected to rank even higher after this week.

The Cowboys offense ranks fifth in points per drive through four weeks and is positioned to score even more against the Buccaneers' weak defense. With Antoine Renfield and Benjamin Morris out for Tampa Bay, the Cowboys passing game will have favorable matchups, benefiting their top receivers like Lamb.

Matt Harmon expresses frustration that the Packers continue to use Chris Brooks as their running back despite him being a pass-protection back, when Caleb Johnson is a better option; this limits the run game and forces more passing volume.

Chris Olave is currently injured and missing time; Matt Harmon notes this context when discussing Devon Bailey's opportunity, indicating Olave's absence is opening up routes for other Saints receivers.

Chris Olave is mentioned as a top-10 to top-15 receiver in rankings who is likely to be started in most lineups, making him less relevant for flex play analysis and accuracy contest purposes. The context suggests Olave is a consensus starter rather than a flex decision.

Drake London is the primary receiver in Kevin Stefanski's Falcons offense, with every pass concept designed to feature him as the first option. The offense is built around London and Bijan Robinson with no wasted plays on other receivers, reflecting Stefanski's commitment to maximizing his star playmakers.

Matt Harmon expects the Falcons run game to improve significantly from the first two weeks, with Bill Callahan's offensive line coaching providing a spark. Drake London is positioned as a buy alongside the improved Falcons offense.

Emmitt Johnson is making his touches very productive for the Seahawks, similar to the value Gentry provides. Matt Harmon suggests if Johnson is available in your league, you should 'swoop him up' or 'Trojan horse it,' implying he's undervalued and could be a league-winner type pickup.

Pickens has a favorable bounce-back matchup against the Buccaneers defense. The Cowboys offense ranks fifth in points per drive through four weeks and will be passing heavily against Tampa Bay's weak pass defense, creating volume opportunities for Pickens.

Matt Harmon calls his shot on George Pickens scoring a red zone touchdown against Tampa Bay; Pickens has zero touchdowns on the season so far but matches CD Lamb's 2.49 yards per route (Lamb at 2.66), suggesting explosive potential. Harmon believes Pickens will pop more than Lamb in this matchup because the Buccaneers lack the defensive horses to contain both receivers.

Ian Thomas got a touchdown in the Raiders' improved offense, which is using tight ends heavily with 20+ snaps of single-receiver sets, indicating opportunity for secondary tight end targets.

Ian Thomas got a touchdown in the Raiders' game, though Matt Harmon notes this is more real football than fantasy football value, suggesting limited consistent fantasy upside despite the scoring opportunity.

Matt Harmon suggests buying low on Jacoby Brissett as the Patriots' quarterback; the offense showed schematic improvements in Week 4 and Brissett played better, making him a potential value target for teams looking to upgrade at QB.

Ferguson over 27.5 receiving yards is a favorable prop; Buccaneers are susceptible to tight end targets; Cowboys expected to be pass-heavy with quick-game emphasis against Tampa Bay.

Hurts can pick apart the Buccaneers defense, which is vulnerable to passing attacks. The Cowboys defense (mentioned as a comparison point) ranks fifth in points per drive through four weeks, and Hurts has the arm talent and mobility to exploit Tampa Bay's defensive weaknesses.

Daniels has anytime touchdown prop at favorable odds; Matt Harmon recommends hard over on Daniels' rushing totals if available; Cowboys offense expected to be pass-heavy with explosive red-zone execution against Buccaneers.

Jonah Coleman may provide a spark to the Broncos' run game when he returns from injury, but Harmon tempers expectations: Coleman is more of a get-on-base running back than an explosive player. Given Bo Nix's inability to push the ball downfield, Coleman's limited explosiveness may not fully solve the Broncos' offensive tightness.

Matt Harmon expects Jordan Love to have boom games given the Packers' increased passing volume and pace, though the weak run game and overall offensive limitations mean consistency will be limited.

Matt Harmon ranks Josh Downs inside his top 24-30 receivers despite concerns about the Colts offense and Daniel Jones' play. Harmon notes Downs is not a true number-one receiver in the NFL but is playing that role due to lack of alternatives; he's had 70 yards in back-to-back weeks but underperformed expectations (ranked top 20) against Washington due to game script and quarterback issues. Against Pittsburgh, Harmon suggests adjusting expectations downward while still considering him a viable flex play, though he expresses worry about Daniel Jones' performance and the Steelers' pass rush.

Matt Harmon is not selling on Justin Jefferson despite the Vikings offense being boom-bust; he expects the offense to improve from its current bottom-three ranking to around 18th-20th best depending on matchups, with Jefferson's return and the offense's experimental adjustments under KOC.

Jawan Johnson is among the top route runners in the Saints' high-pace, no-huddle offense, indicating significant offensive involvement and opportunity.

Gainwell needs more involvement in the Buccaneers offense; he caught a touchdown last week and should be featured more, particularly against a Cowboys defense that is strong against the run and will force Tampa Bay to pass.

Kenneth Walker remains the lead back for the Seahawks as long as he stays healthy, with the run game being a real strength for the team.

Kirk Cousins is QB9 in fantasy scoring this season, ahead of Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love. Matt Harmon did not expect the Raiders to commit to Cousins for the full season, but he's executing the offense at a high level with increased aggression and confidence, including late throws over the middle and bootleg plays reminiscent of Patrick Mahomes' style.

Cousins is showing increased aggression and confidence in the Raiders offense under new coaching, including late-game throws to tight ends over the middle and answering blitzes without check-down reliance. On 27 plays with one or fewer receivers, 14 were dropbacks with 10 successful; Cousins posted 9.1 net yards per attempt, 0.53 EPA per dropback, and 71% success rate in one week. Matt Harmon notes the Raiders are attacking defenses with different personnel packages and could finish as a top-10 offensive unit.

Matt Harmon expresses skepticism about buying into Mack Hollins in redraft leagues despite Patriots offensive improvements; while Hollins had some big catches, Harmon does not view him as a reliable fantasy asset going forward.

Matt Harmon expresses high conviction that Marvin Harrison Jr. will catch a touchdown, stating he should have "bet his life savings" on it and calling it "the easiest bet" he could have made. The confidence stems from the Cardinals' intent to target him in the end zone under new offensive direction.

Matt Harmon predicts Marvin Harrison Jr. will have a sell-high game against the Lions this week, after which Chris Ballard will emotionally trade a third-round pick to the Cardinals for him. Harmon frames this as a panic move by Ballard in response to Harrison's performance against Detroit.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is highlighted as a touchdown-scoring opportunity that the speaker believes was highly probable in recent games. The speaker expresses strong conviction that Harrison Jr. would catch a touchdown, stating 'I should have bet my life savings that Marvin Harrison jr. Would catch a touchdown last week. I should have just bet it,' indicating high confidence in his red-zone and scoring upside despite recent results.

Michael Mayer is playing really well in the improved Raiders offense, which has shifted to heavy tight end usage with 20+ snaps of single-receiver sets, positioning him as a secondary tight end option in a pass-heavy scheme.

Michael Mayer is playing really well as the second tight end in the Raiders' historic heavy-personnel offense that concentrates production through tight ends and running backs rather than wide receivers.

Michael Penix Jr.'s skill set is driving the Falcons' offensive design under Kevin Stefanski. Penix does not throw the ball well over the middle but excels pushing the ball and launching to the outside. The offense is built to leverage his strengths by avoiding screens and nickel-and-diming plays, instead committing to vertical passing concepts that suit his arm talent.

Penix is predominantly used in pistol formation (14 pass attempts under center so far this season, compared to six attempts two years prior), limiting his effectiveness in the offense. Matt Harmon notes the Falcons' reluctance to develop Penix under center despite having a decent run game and offensive line, suggesting a lack of confidence in his ability to execute from that position.

Mike Washington is one of Harmon's favorite bench holds at this point; he's giving the Raiders a pop every now and again and could see increased opportunity if Ashton Gentry doesn't fully recover or faces softer matchups.

Mike Washington was handpicked by Clint Kubiak and is perfectly suited for the zone run scheme. Matt Harmon describes him as a 'league winner type' given his production on all touches he receives; even in a 70-30 split with Gentry, Washington is making tangible plays and could be available in many leagues.

Nico Collins' presence drives the Texans' high offensive rankings in weeks where he plays. The Texans ranked 6th, 28th, 24th, and 3rd across four weeks; Harmon attributes the two high rankings (6th and 3rd) directly to Collins' availability and impact on the offense.

Nico Collins is mentioned as a top-10 to top-15 receiver in rankings who is likely to be started in most lineups, making him less relevant for flex play analysis and accuracy contest purposes. The context suggests Collins is a consensus starter rather than a flex decision.

Matt Harmon notes that he has seen Addison get going in the Vikings offense, indicating emerging production in the passing game as the Vikings experiment with different offensive approaches.

Patriots diversified their run game approach in Week 4, moving away from heavy duo usage; Stevenson is banged up but the offensive scheme showed more variety in run-game design, though overall run game is not expected to be great.

RJ Harvey is being discussed as a potential solution to the Broncos' run-game and offensive stagnation issues. The speaker is skeptical that more RJ Harvey involvement in the run game is the answer, but acknowledges the Broncos need to change their approach. There's also a note that Harvey needs to 'consistently catch football' in addition to being more involved in the offense, suggesting a dual-threat role expectation.

Flournoy runs 57% of snaps in slot with 5.9 air yards per target; gets peppered with touches against blitz looks due to play design; over 50 receiving yards at +210 odds is a smart prop; bigger-body receiver who replaces blitz coverage.

Ryan Flournoy operates at 57% snap share in the slot with 5.9 air yards per target; he can function as a blitz replacement with his bigger body and inside-out versatility against the Buccaneers' defense.

Matt Harmon highlights T.J. Hockenson as getting going in the Vikings offense, particularly in the second half of the Dolphins game, suggesting the Vikings passing game is starting to click despite the offense's experimental nature.

Matt Harmon projects Tucker Kraft as a fantasy beneficiary of the Packers' pass-heavy offense, calling it a "print fest" for him if he can continue to get healthy and improve; the team's weak run game and increased pace will drive passing volume.