TNF REAX + 6 biggest fantasy questions we want answered in Week 5

A.J. Brown faces the Jaguars' elite secondary with really good corners who employ man coverage looks that Jalen Hurts traditionally struggles against. While Brown and Devontae Smith would normally be aggressive targets against man looks, the Jaguars will likely employ zone looks with two-high split safety coverage where windows close quickly, similar to what they did against Joe Burrow. The Eagles offense has no clear paths forward from a fantasy standpoint this week.

Aaron Rodgers still gets frustrated with Roman Wilson on a few snaps per game, but Wilson has been designated as the Steelers' shot player against man coverage. Rodgers will like some of the matchups against the Colts and may fling the ball to Wilson when he sees favorable pre-snap looks.

Alvin Kamara's usage could be limited against the Vikings as C.J. Donaldson might play the most snaps among the running backs because he is the Saints' best protection back. This makes it challenging to get on board with the Alvin Kamara scam from last week.

Antonio Williams is their leader in yards per out run against man coverage and has been weaponized really well by David Blau. He looks way faster than coming out of Clemson and is lining up on the outside winning in the intermediate portion and creating actual separation as an outside wide receiver. With a projection of two receptions and 23 yards, he should exceed that. He is a third-round pick and a great post-bye rookie bump candidate. The Commanders' bye is week seven, after which they face the Eagles and Rams.

Austin Ekeler is the Commanders' running back going forward after Katron Allen was cut. The team is riding with Ekeler for the rest of the season.

Bo Nix has the fourth-highest check-down rate in the NFL at 13.3% among quarterbacks with four starts; he is also second in the NFL in throwaways. This pattern reflects a reluctance to take downfield shots and suggests either physical limitations post-surgery or a fundamental preference for quick dump-offs to running backs like RJ rather than extending plays or scrambling.

Bo Nix is not scrambling enough this season; Jack Strand has more scramble yards than Bo Nix year-to-date. Combined with his high check-down and throwaway rates, this suggests Bo Nix is avoiding his mobility entirely, possibly due to post-offseason surgery concerns about avoiding sacks in the same way he historically has.

Bryce Young leads the NFL in throwaways with 21, but unlike Bo Nix, Young has a 4.9% check-down rate—the lowest tendency to dump off. Young's willingness to throw the ball away and then attack downfield on the next play contrasts sharply with Bo Nix's pattern of avoiding downfield throws.

Irving dominated Thursday Night Football with 21 carries for 165 yards and 2 catches for 7 yards, totaling over 170 yards from scrimmage with 2 total touchdowns including a 72-yard run on the first play of the second half. Matt Harmon emphasized Irving's explosiveness and ability to find creases, noting he was one of the best players on the field and calling for Tampa Bay to continue establishing him as the offensive metronome, particularly in critical down-and-distance situations where his intelligence and instincts shine.

CJ Stroud is being started for the second straight week in fantasy lineups. The Titans allow a 73% completion rate (31st in league) and 23rd in yards per attempt, making them a favorable matchup despite their low pass rate allowed due to teams running on them repeatedly.

Carnell Tate had a solid game in Week 3 and what would be considered a breakout performance in Week 4, but Matt Harmon is skeptical of his production continuing against the Texans, who have defensive studs that can make bad offenses look horrible. The Texans defense should shut down the Brian Dayball-led Titans offense.

Lamb was nearly invisible against Tampa Bay's defense, recording only 2 catches for 9 yards despite being banged up late in the game. Harmon called this result crazy given the matchup advantage Dallas should have had; he noted that Lamb was weaponized effectively against man coverage in the previous week against Houston, but the Cowboys failed to generate clean, quick-hitting passes to him against Tampa Bay's soft zone coverage, representing one of the biggest surprises of Week 5.

Chase Brown is running back 14 in points per game but the Bengals have essentially given up on the under-center run game, forcing him to be good from shotgun where there's a thinner margin for error. However, he's still getting 81-82% of running back rushes and 81% of touches overall. Josh Norris calls him an awesome buy-low this week and suggests trading Luther Burden and Travis Etienne for Chase Brown, believing this is the window to acquire him. The Dolphins matchup is favorable; if Brown is going to have success, it will come this week against Miami. After this week, it will be much more difficult to produce.

Godwin received a true power concept run during Thursday's game, indicating some schematic involvement beyond traditional receiving routes. However, Harmon noted that the Buccaneers' receivers cannot be thrown to consistently due to the quarterback situation and poorly-designed offense, limiting Godwin's fantasy upside despite his role in the offense.

Chris Olave's health status needs monitoring after taking a hit late in last week's game. He did not miss practice yesterday, but his status should be monitored. If he plays, he should be started, as he is leading the NFL in routes right now.

Prescott struggled against Tampa Bay's blitz-heavy defense in the first half, with free runners consistently reaching him. Harmon noted the Cowboys' offensive line and game plan were not prepared for Todd Bowles' scheme despite knowing exactly what to expect; the offense came out flat and failed to establish rhythm or quick-hitting passes, which Harmon found disturbing given Dallas' talent and the Buccaneers' defensive weaknesses.

Smith scored his seventh touchdown of the season in Thursday's game, continuing his role as the primary touchdown-scoring running back for Dallas. Harmon described him as a touchdown print fest because he is the only running back consistently touching the ball, making him a great fantasy pick despite the Cowboys' inconsistent offensive execution.

DeVonta Smith faces the Jaguars' elite secondary with really good corners who employ man coverage looks that Jalen Hurts traditionally struggles against. While Smith and A.J. Brown would normally be aggressive targets against man looks, the Jaguars will likely employ zone looks with two-high split safety coverage where windows close quickly. The Eagles offense has no clear paths forward from a fantasy standpoint this week.

DeVonta Smith is currently wide receiver 13 in points per game despite being injured. Matt Harmon does not view this as a sell-high window; instead, he believes when Smith returns, the Eagles offense will be more functional than it currently is, making him a hold.

DK Metcalf is being started in leagues despite the Steelers' offensive inconsistency. He is one of the few reliable offensive weapons alongside Jalen Warren, though the Steelers' success depends on Aaron Rodgers hitting his big plays.

Drake London could have opportunities against the Ravens defense on outbreakers and sale concepts, as there are probably enough weaknesses along the boundary for the Falcons to exploit in this strength-on-strength matchup.

De'Ami Brown is out there for 60 percent of snaps for the Commanders, meaning none of the wide receivers unless something shockingly changes will play 85 to 90 percent of snaps due to the rotation.

Evan Ingram was open on a corner route to the outside with 12 yards of separation and an entire sideline available during the Broncos' first drive, but Bo Nix did not throw him the ball, illustrating the quarterback's reluctance to take open downfield shots.

Pickens scored his first touchdown of the season against Tampa Bay's defense, finishing with over 100 yards on 13 targets (team-leading). Harmon had predicted this TD beforehand and noted that while Dallas' offense was disappointing overall, Pickens found success late in the game on slant routes against the Buccaneers' soft zone coverage, though Harmon felt these easy-button slants should have been deployed much earlier in the game.

Ferguson, typically a sure-handed tight end, dropped a critical pass late in Thursday's game that could have ended the contest. Harmon sarcastically noted this was the craziest thing Kirk Herbstreet said all season, highlighting Ferguson's uncharacteristic drop at a crucial moment when the Cowboys were attempting a comeback.

Jalen Hurts has been shut down by man coverage; he went two for nine for 10 yards against the Rams' 55% man coverage in the second half last week. The Jaguars have really good corners and will likely employ similar man looks. Hurts has struggled consistently against zone looks with two-high split safety coverage where windows close quickly. Josh Norris projects Hurts for no more than 135 passing yards this week and expects the Eagles to get blown out. In a super flex league, Harmon would start Hurts only because there's no alternative (Sam Darnold being the only other option), and he wouldn't rank him inside the top 12 quarterbacks.

Jalen Hurts has been a quarterback to score in only 8 of his past 12 regular season games going back to last season. He struggles particularly against man coverage; he went two for nine for 10 yards against the Rams' 55% man coverage in the second half last week. The Jaguars have really good corners and will employ similar man looks. Additionally, Hurts struggles against zone looks with two-high split safety coverage where windows close quickly. The Jaguars will likely dare Hurts to consistently throw into cover-two holes, similar to what they did against Joe Burrow. Josh Norris projects Hurts for no more than 135 passing yards this week.

Daniels managed the game effectively for Tampa Bay with 25 pass attempts and 3.3 yards per carry on his runs, keeping the offense afloat without doing anything spectacular. Harmon credited him for solid game management, timely runs including a good third-down run late in the game, and maintaining balance with Bucky Irving's 21 carries, though Daniels' limited arm talent means the Buccaneers' passing game will likely remain limited.

Jaden Daniels gets back for the Commanders this week against the Giants. With David Blau as offensive coordinator, Daniels will have the opportunity to open his playbook with healthy bodies around him, as Blau showed cool things in the first half of the Dallas game and the entire Seattle game with Marcus Mariota.

Jalen Warren has been over 90% of running back touches in each of the last two weeks for the Steelers, making him a workhorse. He has been one of the Steelers' best offensive players this season despite not yet scoring a touchdown, competing favorably with DK Metcalf.

Jawan Johnson should be a starting caliber option for fantasy despite the tough Vikings matchup because the Saints run so many plays and will generate enough volume for their pass catchers. The comparison is made to how the Arizona Cardinals' offense functioned last year with Jacoby Brissett, where their defense was so bad that in second halves it was a light show.

Katron Allen, a sixth-round pick running back for the Commanders, was cut while the podcast was being recorded. The team is going to ride with Austin Ekeler for the rest of the way.

The Commanders waived sixth-round pick running back Katron Allen, removing him from the roster entirely.

Kenneth Walker III is mentioned as one of the top-performing running backs that Matt Harmon has on his fantasy team and hopes doesn't get injured. He's part of the group of elite performers (alongside JSN, Kyron Williams, and Chris Alave) that Harmon expects to continue producing through the season, though chaos and injuries could disrupt any player's trajectory.

Makai Lemon, a first-round pick, is having the most predictable slow start of all time. The theory of the case for Lemon was that he would run a lot of out cuts off under-center play action (similar to what the Packers did with Jaden Reed), but the Eagles are not doing any of that stuff at this point. Matt Harmon sees him but notes he should not be the number one perimeter player on the Eagles. There is no clear path forward for Lemon from a fantasy standpoint this week.

The theory of the case for Makai Lemon was he would run out cuts off under center play action like the Packers did with Jaden Reed and be a better version of Dante Mewicks at times, but the Eagles are not doing any of that stuff at this point.

Malik Nabers is dealing with soreness at practice, described as a different soreness than before. Matt Harmon notes that Nabers is probably the most pessimistic player when it comes to his own injuries, being the most doom and gloom compared to other injured players. There is uncertainty about his status week to week.

Mark Andrews is sometimes sacrificed as the runoff guy in coverage to open things up for Zay Flowers. In single-high looks, if Andrews can hold the safety, the Ravens can still get explosive plays from Flowers, creating bust potential for the Falcons defense.

Marvin Mims was clearing out on a dagger concept play over the middle of the field during the Broncos' first drive, but Bo Nix did not throw the ball to the intended receiver on that play, continuing the pattern of missed downfield opportunities.

Michael Penix Jr. is easily on an island in terms of the percent of his dropbacks that are clean with zero pressure, but he has never really been the most mobile player and is coming off a significant injury. The Ravens defense is a tick above the Packers and Saints defenses the Falcons recently faced, and the Ravens are the best defense in yards per target allowed on play action at 3.9 yards per target. Penix has not yet been consistently pressured at 40 percent of his dropbacks, which is a real test.

Michael Pittman has been missing for multiple weeks, opening up secondary pass-catcher opportunities for the Colts. His absence creates a void that other receivers like Roman Wilson or Jeremy Bernard may fill.

When Tee Higgins misses time, Gesicki becomes the team's number two wide receiver, running zero routes as an inline tight end and functioning as a big slot receiver. Against Miami's league-high 78% completion rate allowed and 90.5% completion rate on throws within 10 yards, Gesicki's matchup is ideal. He's currently tight end 10 in points per game (16 points week one, 11 points weeks three and four) while playing 50-55% of snaps; snap share could increase to 65-78% if Higgins misses. Historical precedent: tight end 5 when Higgins missed week two 2024; tight end 1 when Higgins played below 75% of snaps in week 13 2024. Matt Harmon projects six-plus catches and expects Gesicki to be a tight end flex play this week.

Nico Collins was QB1 in Week 4 and QB16 in Week 3 against the Titans, who allow a 73% completion rate (31st) and rank 23rd in yards per attempt. The Texans are airing it out with Stroud and should continue to do so against Tennessee.

Rico Dowdle has a chance to return for the Steelers' game against the Colts after missing time. His return could potentially reduce Jalen Warren's touch share, though Warren's strong recent performance may limit the split.

Roman Wilson is in line for a pretty good game against the Colts and is Matt Harmon's bold prediction for the week. He averages 2.53 yards per route against man coverage with 10.9% first downs per route—nobody else is close to those numbers. The Colts are seventh in man coverage rate, creating a favorable matchup for Wilson's shot-play role.

Saquon Barkley's fantasy outlook has collapsed due to the Eagles' offensive line injuries. The team has a new starting right tackle, third-string center, and third-string left guard, with only Landon Dickerson potentially returning (though he was horrific in week one). Josh Norris built his Barkley outlook on believing in the Eagles' offensive line consistency, but that foundation has crumbled. The rushing attack stems from the offensive line, and the passing attack stems from the rushing attack; none of that is going to get fixed from here on out. Norris speculates about potential trades to Minnesota, Seattle, or Denver, but acknowledges that without Barkley currently being healthy, any trade scenario is unlikely. For this week, Barkley is injured and unavailable.

Terry McLaurin is not expected to play this week for the Commanders against the Giants, which opens up opportunities for other receivers like Antonio Williams.

Johnson had an explosive play on a deep corner route where Cowboys cornerback Deron Bland blew coverage, showcasing a role in Tampa Bay's passing game despite limited overall volume. This play demonstrated Johnson's ability to create explosive moments when given opportunities downfield.

Traylon Burks is out there for 60 percent of snaps for the Commanders, meaning none of the wide receivers unless something shockingly changes will play 85 to 90 percent of snaps due to the rotation.

Will Shipley is ranked around running back 27-31 this week, reflecting low optimism. The Jaguars' defensive line is incredible—tall, long, beefy, athletic dudes who stuff gaps and force you to work backwards—and this matchup is against backup offensive linemen. While Shipley looks bigger in the NFL than he did in college and has receiving ability, Jalen Hurts has been shut down by man coverage (two for nine for 10 yards against the Rams' 55% man coverage), and the Jaguars have really good corners. Josh Norris projects Hurts for no more than 135 passing yards, suggesting the Eagles will get blown out. Shipley is a rare player who looks bigger in the NFL than in college, but the matchup and offensive line injuries make him a poor fantasy play.

Zay Flowers is getting more slot work than he's ever had in his entire career, with the Ravens getting him on so many linebackers through movement, action out of the backfield, and slot work. Declan Doyle understands Flowers is tiers above any other pass catcher and is getting him the ball in layup ways via 13 personnel and motion concepts that put him on linebackers on short crossing routes with run-after-catch opportunities.