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10 fantasy data points you need to know for Week 5

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 30 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 7, 2026
Published
Wed, October 7, 2026
91
Player insights
63
Players mentioned
Topics
Jalen HurtsBo NixKeon ColemanLadd McConkeyRJ HarveyA.J. BrownBrock BowersBryce YoungCeeDee LambChase BrownChris OlaveD.J. MooreGarrett WilsonJared Goff
Player analysis

Player insights

91

A.J. Brown

NegativeProjection6:39

The Philadelphia Eagles offense is historically dysfunctional through four weeks, which directly impacts A.J. Brown's fantasy value. Despite the Eagles directing 68% of targets to wide receivers (third highest in NFL), they have only 72 collective targets to the position (tied 15th). The offense is averaging 1.5 punts per scoring drive (fourth worst), running 57.5 plays per game (26 fewer than league average), and posting a 38% passing success rate (29th). Brown is caught in an offense that is the worst-performing Eagles offense through four weeks of a season this century by success rate, with only 172 total yards and 68 net passing yards in Week 4 (lowest in 23 years for a regular season game).

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NegativeProjection12:50

Matt Harmon expresses that fantasy players should not depend on any Eagle in Week 5 due to the Eagles' systemic offensive collapse following the loss of Lane Johnson and the resulting offensive line deterioration. This blanket warning applies to all Eagles receivers, including AJ Brown, given the team's repeated three-and-outs and overall dysfunction.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveMatchup43:28

St. Brown is positioned for another good week as the Lions face the Cardinals, who allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank ninth in pass rate over expected. The Cardinals also rank 12th in pass rate over expected offensively, creating a pure passing game environment favoring Lions receivers.

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Blake Corum

PositiveValue43:15

Blake Corum is a pure backup to Kyron Williams on the Rams, a team with a great rushing environment; recommended to stash him as a backup and potentially as a fill-in trade candidate given the Rams' positive offensive environment.

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Bo Nix

NegativeRole47:00

Bo Nix led all qualifying quarterbacks with a 33% check-down rate in Week 4, compared to his full-season rate of 19% (third-highest in the NFL). His scramble rate has dropped to around 2% this year, down from 7% in the past two seasons, indicating a more pass-focused, check-down-heavy approach that benefits running back receivers like RJ Harvey.

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PositiveProjection49:09

Nix is severely limiting downfield passing and middle-of-field throws, averaging 5.3 yards to target in Week 4 (3 yards worse than NFL average). In Week 4, he had 42 attempts with only 5 of 13 completions against the blitz for 32 yards and 2 for 10 on passes beyond 10 air yards. His lack of scrambling is concerning given his ankle injury history and multiple surgeries, forcing the offense to rely on check-downs to R.J. Harvey instead of attacking vertically.

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NegativeMatchup51:47

Nix faces the Chargers defense which ranks eighth in two-high percentage but will give up opportunities in the middle of the field against cover one looks with single high safety. The matchup offers potential for middle-of-field passing opportunities.

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Brenton Strange

PositiveBreakout72:13

Brenton Strange is showing a quiet breakout at tight end with escalating route participation (64%, 81%, 84%, 85% week-over-week) and target volume increasing from 5 combined targets in weeks 1–2 to 13 targets in each of the last two weeks. He exploited the Bengals' weak coverage up the spine and faces the Philadelphia Eagles, who have struggled with tight end coverage due to linebacker Jihad Campbell's limited field presence and cornerback issues. Matt Harmon moved Strange up to tight end 14 in his rankings despite consensus rankings placing him outside the top 20.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveRole27:08

Bowers has reached 24 targets in just two games for Las Vegas; he's split out wide, in the slot, and rarely lined up as a traditional inline tight end (only 14% of snaps in true tight end alignments). Matt Harmon notes he's 'a totally different animal than your typical tight end,' functioning more like a wide receiver within the Raiders' historically anomalous offensive scheme where RBs and tight ends collectively receive 58% of targets—a formation pattern unseen in 544 team seasons from 2009–2025.

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PositiveUsage30:22

Bowers is a movable chess piece lining up 47% wide, 37% slot, 1.8% backfield—a stark contrast to traditional tight ends like Michael Mayer (4.8% wide, 15% slot). He's running real deal routes down the field, not just dump-offs, with 32% target share and 34% air yard share when active; 10 air yards per target. Matt Harmon notes he's a unicorn-type player integral to the Raiders' two-tight-end offense, which has jumped to 58% 12-personnel usage in week four (up from 32.3% weeks 1-3), suggesting the team feels confident deploying him as a mismatched nightmare across formations.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveValue25:23

Brock Purdy is QB2 on the season at 25 PPG despite being an eighth-round pick, demonstrating exceptional value. He has a 55% win percentage, the second-best among all quarterbacks, and exemplifies the strategy of waiting on quarterback selection and finding elite production late in drafts.

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Bryce Young

NegativeRole21:00

Matt Harmon was a big tech guy coming in and is not worried about Bryce Young; his performances past week with Jalen Coker being out has probably helped the receiving numbers, but Harmon is confident in Young as the quarterback.

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NegativeProjection25:28

Bryce Young is averaging 22 PPG, placing him in the third tier of fantasy quarterbacks behind Josh Allen (27.9 PPG) and Brock Purdy (25 PPG). He was undrafted, making him an accessible option for teams that waited on the position.

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Caleb Williams

NegativeProjection25:33

Caleb Williams is averaging 22.5 PPG, placing him in the third tier of fantasy quarterbacks alongside Bryce Young (22 PPG), behind Josh Allen (27.9 PPG) and Brock Purdy (25 PPG). He represents the mid-round quarterback tier that has underperformed relative to draft capital invested.

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Cam Akers

NegativeRole43:43

Cam Akers is underutilized in the receiving game despite being the most efficient receiving running back in his college class; the lack of involvement in the passing game (not getting 5-6 targets per game) is disappointing and limits his fantasy ceiling, possibly due to Winston or Matt Nagy's offensive scheme.

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Carnell Tate

PositiveMatchup62:06

Matt Harmon would start Carnell Tate over Marvin Harrison Jr. in a heartbeat for Week 5; he projects Tate as a wide receiver three start this week, positioning him ahead of Harrison in the matchup.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveValue22:00

CeeDee Lamb was the 11th overall player off the board and could have been grabbed at the turn alongside Kenneth Walker for an excellent start; he's identified as a season-defining player who will help define fantasy football this season.

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PositiveProjection63:21

CeeDee Lamb is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon notes Lamb is off to an elite start and is one of the best receivers in the NFL.

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Chase Brown

NegativeUsage44:28

Chase Brown has not been effective as a rusher on the ground; his fantasy value is being sustained primarily by receiving work, indicating limited upside in a run-heavy offense.

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NegativeRole44:37

Chase Brown's upside is capped by the Bengals' offensive scheme; the team abandoned their offseason run-game project and is now dead last in under-center snaps while leading in pass rate over expected. Brown will have to operate out of the gun and rely on receiving work, which significantly limits the upside case for a second-round draft pick. His receiving is currently saving his fantasy value, but he has not been effective as a rusher.

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Chris Olave

PositiveValue22:48

Chris Olave was a third-round pick (27th overall) and has been great; Matt Harmon notes he was rising throughout the summer and was a great pick; he's identified as one of the season-defining players at the top of the list with great sustainability.

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PositiveProjection63:21

Chris Olave is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon describes Olave as all-pro worthy and fantastic this season, urging him to stay healthy.

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Christian Watson

PositiveBreakout21:00

Christian Watson has stepped up to be a number one wide receiver for the Packers and is identified as one of the big hits in the fourth to fifth round wide receiver area; he's a season-defining player who will help define fantasy football this season.

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Courtland Sutton

PositiveRole47:27

Sutton's target volume is being suppressed by Denver's offensive scheme that funnels opportunities to R.J. Harvey instead of pass catchers. Bo Nix is checking down excessively (averaging 5.3 yards to target, 3 yards worse than NFL average) and not pushing the ball downfield or over the middle, where Sutton would typically operate. This offensive dysfunction is directly hurting Sutton's fantasy production.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeProjection23:20

DJ Moore, when healthy, has gotten on base in the fourth to fifth round wide receiver tier where there were going to be some big hits and some big misses.

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NegativeUsage63:21

DJ Moore is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season by first-down rate, but has only run routes on 52% of the drop backs; Matt Harmon notes the efficiency has been there for Moore and he has made plays when available, but he is just not available enough, which is a bummer; Moore is also dealing with a shoulder injury.

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Darius Cooper

NegativeUsage11:44

Darius Cooper ran 91% of routes in Week 2 and made a couple of good catches, but Matt Harmon expresses doubt about whether Cooper is someone you want running 91% of routes in Week 4, suggesting the high route share is unsustainable or not indicative of reliable fantasy production given the Eagles' offensive dysfunction.

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Deebo Samuel

PositiveProjection63:21

Debo Samuel is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon describes Samuel as a really quality role player so far.

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Denzel Boston

PositiveMatchup61:54

Matt Harmon ranks Boston higher than Odunze, Burden, and Tate for Week 5 against the Jets because Boston has been running boundary routes where Deshaun Watson is seeing it better; Odunze had over 90 yards last week against the Jets defense on quick outs and in-routes from the boundary, which are exactly the routes Boston has been executing well; the chemistry between Watson and Boston on these boundary routes is worth chasing this week.

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Derrick Henry

NegativeProjection42:29

Titans rank 32nd in fantasy points for running backs despite 22nd-ranked rushing efficiency, indicating a significant gap between efficiency and actual fantasy production; the split workload prevents capitalizing on the decent rushing environment.

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DeVonta Smith

NegativeProjection6:39

DeVonta Smith faces the same Eagles offensive dysfunction as A.J. Brown. The Eagles' offense is the worst-performing through four weeks of a season this century by success rate, with only 172 total yards in Week 4 and 68 net passing yards (lowest in 23 years). While the Eagles direct 68% of targets to wide receivers (third highest in NFL), they have only 72 collective targets to the position (tied 15th). The offense is averaging 1.5 punts per scoring drive (fourth worst) and running 57.5 plays per game (26 fewer than league average), severely limiting Smith's volume opportunities.

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Drake London

PositiveProjection63:21

Drake London is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon describes London as all-pro worthy and fantastic this season, urging him to stay healthy.

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Drake Maye

NegativeBust26:15

Drake May was drafted as a mid-round quarterback option but has underperformed relative to draft capital. Despite a strong performance in one recent week, he represents the tier of early-to-mid-round quarterbacks that have disappointed teams this season, causing them to miss out on round 3-4 running back and receiver value.

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Garrett Wilson

NegativeProjection23:00

Garrett Wilson is identified as a fourth to fifth round wide receiver who has gotten on base; he was in an area where there were going to be some big hits and some big misses, but he's delivered solid production.

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PositiveProjection63:21

Garrett Wilson is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs.

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Isaac Nauta

NegativeMatchup52:43

Nauta may get a couple of nice plays down the field in the Lions-Cardinals matchup, which features two teams that want to throw the ball against defenses allowing significant passing volume.

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J.K. Dobbins

NegativeDepth Chart50:00

Dobbins will split rushing workload with Jonah Coleman (approximately 20 rush attempts each) once Coleman returns, limiting Dobbins' volume. Sean Payton's historical deployment pattern separates running back roles by function: one rusher, one pass-catcher, with Harvey handling the pass-catching role.

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Jacoby Brissett

NegativeMatchup53:25

Brissett could be a viable quarterback streamer if he has time to throw against the Lions. However, Paris Johnson's biceps tear (out for the season) is a significant variable that could impact Brissett's ability to get plays off downfield.

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Jalen Hurts

NegativeProjection6:39

Matt Harmon questions whether Jalen Hurts is even a must-start fantasy quarterback given the Eagles' historically poor offensive performance through four weeks. Despite 24.7 points in Week 1 when healthy, Hurts has scored 16 points vs. Tennessee (Week 2), 12.6 vs. Chicago (Week 3), and 13.5 vs. Rams (Week 4). Harmon notes Hurts' designed rushing role has steadily diminished and the offense is not deploying that element anymore. With the Eagles facing Jacksonville's strong defense in Week 5, Harmon argues Hurts cannot be ranked as a starting fantasy quarterback.

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NegativeMatchup9:53

Matt Harmon identifies the Jacksonville Jaguars defense as an elite unit that the Philadelphia Eagles face in Week 5. This elite defense matchup is cited as a primary reason Jalen Hurts cannot be ranked as a starting fantasy quarterback in Week 5, compounding the Eagles' internal offensive issues.

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NegativeProjection10:01

Matt Harmon argues Jalen Hurts cannot be ranked as a starting fantasy quarterback in Week 5 due to multiple compounding issues: the Eagles' offensive line has deteriorated significantly with the loss of Lane Johnson (a Hall of Fame-caliber right tackle) and his replacement being a project-level tackle; the Eagles are experiencing offensive dysfunction with repeated three-and-outs limiting play volume; and the Jacksonville defense in Week 5 is elite. Hurts' rushing upside, historically his saving grace despite mediocre passing efficiency, is diminished because the Eagles lack goal-line opportunities to utilize the tush push.

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NegativeRole62:18

Casey Concepcion is running a lot of intermediate middle-of-field routes where Jalen Hurts is seeing it better at this point, contrasting with Denzel Boston's boundary role in the Texans offense.

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Jalen McMillan

PositiveBreakout22:48

Jaylen McMillan has got an opportunity and is identified as one of the big hits in the fourth to fifth round wide receiver area where there were going to be some big hits and some big misses; he's a season-defining player.

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Jameson Williams

PositiveMatchup18:45

Williams has ceiling appeal in the Lions-Cardinals matchup. The Cardinals allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 12th in pass rate over expected, while the Lions rank ninth in pass rate over expected, creating a pass-heavy environment ideal for chasing Williams' upside.

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Jared Goff

PositiveValue26:00

Jared Goff has a 53% win percentage, placing him among the elite late-round quarterback finds. He exemplifies the strategy of waiting on quarterback selection and finding strong production from players available in later rounds.

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PositiveMatchup26:07

Goff is positioned well in the Lions-Cardinals matchup where the Lions rank ninth in pass rate over expected and face the Cardinals who allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. This creates an ideal passing environment for Goff.

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Javonte Williams

NegativeValue22:48

Javante Williams was 29th off the board and could have been grabbed alongside other top performers for an excellent start.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeBust26:15

Jaden Daniels was drafted early (mid-round) as a quarterback option, but has underperformed relative to draft capital. The speaker notes that drafting Jaden Daniels early after Josh Allen caused teams to miss out on round 3-4 running back and receiver value, exemplifying the cost of chasing quarterback production early.

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Jaylen Waddle

PositiveRole47:27

Waddle's target opportunities are being diverted to R.J. Harvey as Denver's offense funnels check-downs to the running back. Bo Nix is not pushing the ball downfield or over the middle, limiting Waddle's involvement. One of Waddle's targets in Week 4 was a drop, but the broader issue is Bo Nix's conservative passing approach (5.3 yards to target average, 3 yards worse than NFL average) and lack of scrambling due to ankle injury concerns.

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Jaylen Warren

NegativeRole41:23

Mike McCarthy confirmed a committee approach for the running back position and suggested Warren may be a sell-high candidate, indicating limited long-term workload consolidation.

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PositiveMatchup41:23

Against the Colts' man coverage scheme, Warren has opportunity to produce as a receiver; Colts leave a linebacker on Warren in coverage, creating potential for big plays in the passing game this week.

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Joe Burrow

NegativeProjection25:33

Joe Burrow is in the next tier of quarterbacks below Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, and Caleb Williams. While not performing poorly in absolute terms, he has underperformed relative to his draft capital and the elite production available from late-round quarterback options.

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Jonah Coleman

NegativeDepth Chart50:00

Once Coleman returns from injury, he and J.K. Dobbins will split the rushing workload (approximately 20 rush attempts each) running up the A-gap, while R.J. Harvey will be limited to a few carries. This deployment pattern reflects Sean Payton's historical preference for splitting running back roles by function: one rusher, one pass-catcher.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection23:33

Josh Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy by a significant margin; averaging 27.9 points per game (just under 28 PPG), well ahead of QB2 Brock Purdy at 25 PPG and the next tier (Bryce Young, Caleb Williams) at 22-22.5 PPG. Matt Harmon values him at 21st-22nd overall in Yahoo drafts (second-round pick), noting there is a clear gap between him and all other quarterbacks. Despite two recent lower-scoring weeks, his season-long performance establishes him as the elite fantasy quarterback option.

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NegativeProjection24:00

Josh Allen is the only quarterback on the top 15 fantasy data points list for Week 5.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeInjury69:33

Matt Harmon expresses concern about Justin Herbert's injury situation with the Chargers, noting that Herbert has been taking significant hits and that Joe Alt was banged up in Week 5, creating uncertainty about his availability going forward. Harmon criticizes the coaching staff's lack of answers regarding Herbert's protection and overall offensive scheme.

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NegativeProjection71:41

Matt Harmon placed Justin Herbert in total panic on his panic meter due to the Chargers' offensive dysfunction. The disappointment stems from lack of practice time in the offseason and unclear answers from coaching staff (Mike McDaniel, Jim Harbaugh) regarding offensive direction. This is the first season where the 'if man' hypothetical (if he had been at practice, if coaching had answers) genuinely applies to Herbert's fantasy outlook.

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Kalif Raymond

PositiveProjection63:21

Kalief Raymond is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon describes Raymond as a really quality role player so far.

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Keaton Mitchell

NegativeRole69:00

Matt Harmon speculates that Keaton Mitchell could be the spark the struggling Chargers offense needs as they experiment with their three-running-back split, though he expresses uncertainty about whether Mitchell will actually provide that impact.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveValue20:52

Kenneth Walker ranked 16th overall in consensus ADP but went 13th overall on Yahoo Drafts, the highest across the industry; Matt Harmon and team beat the drum on him as a pick at the turn and identify him as a season-defining player who will help define fantasy football this season.

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Keon Coleman

PositiveBreakout64:04

Keon Coleman is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season by first-down rate; Matt Harmon notes that Coleman looked as good as he has ever seen him play last week, though it was a one-week sample size where nobody started him; Harmon is intrigued by Coleman if you're banking on Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense, though he's not ready to proclaim him a next-level breakout star yet, but wants to give him his due after watching him play really good football last week.

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PositiveUsage65:04

Coleman posted 7.26 above league average usage last week with 35% air yard share, 22.6% target share, and 33.2% of Buffalo's overall offensive production—better than Chris Olave, Malik Neighbors, Amon Ross St. Brown, DK Metcalf, and Romo Dunze in a one-week sample. His pre-snap deployment has shifted; he's no longer exclusively the X receiver on every snap and is now moved around the formation, used off-ball and tight to the core in Brock Bowers-ish fashion, which Matt Harmon identifies as the role change Coleman needed to be effective.

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PositiveBreakout66:32

Coleman's route tree has evolved significantly: go-route percentage dropped from 28% in year one to 21% in year two to 14% this season, replaced by more out routes and corner routes where he has looked good. His efficiency metrics reflect the improvement: first downs per route jumped to 11% from 6.8% and 8.3% in his first two years; yards per route increased to 2.4 from 1.3 in 2025. Matt Harmon notes this is a meaningful change that makes Coleman a consideration if DJ Moore misses time.

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Kyren Williams

PositiveValue22:00

Kyron Williams was 15th overall off the board and could have been grabbed alongside CeeDee Lamb and Kenneth Walker for an excellent start; he's identified as a season-defining player with great receiving usage that kept up week-to-week.

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NegativeUsage47:25

Kyron Williams is referenced as a precedent for the Denver Broncos' heavy running back receiving volume; like RJ Harvey, he benefits from Denver's league-leading RB target share (28%, rising to 37% in Week 4).

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Ladd McConkey

NegativeUsage63:21

Ladd McConkey is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season by first-down rate, but has only run routes on 59% of the drop backs; Matt Harmon notes the efficiency has been there for McConkey and he has made plays when available, but he is just not available enough, which is a bummer; McConkey has been exactly what his new offense has needed.

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NegativeRole67:58

Matt Harmon indicates that the Chargers' offensive dysfunction—including poor EPA per play (31st, -0.123), slow pace (5th slowest), and inability to run effectively—is not good for Ladd McConkey's fantasy prospects despite his talent. The team's overall offensive struggles and three-running-back committee approach limit McConkey's upside.

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NegativeRole71:37

Ladd McConkey was drafted with wide receiver one type upside as a locked-and-loaded option, but the Chargers' offensive scheme—slow pace, emphasis on running up the middle—is limiting his production. The disappointment is not due to his skillset but rather the team's offensive approach and execution.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeProjection25:33

Lamar Jackson is in the next tier of quarterbacks below Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, and Caleb Williams. While not performing poorly in absolute terms, he has underperformed relative to his draft capital and the elite production available from late-round quarterback options like Brock Purdy.

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Makai Lemon

NegativeBreakout12:30

Matt Harmon describes Makai Lemon as a total nothing burger so far, which he attributes to predictable factors: Lemon is a rookie receiver who missed significant time in training camp. Despite having all the opportunity in the world to get going, the Eagles have produced almost nothing from him. Harmon expresses concern about Lemon's lack of production given the Eagles' offensive dysfunction (repeated three-and-outs limiting play volume) and questions whether Lemon can break out in this environment.

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Marvin Harrison Jr.

NegativeProjection54:00

Matt Harmon explicitly does not have the fortitude to rank Marvin Harrison Jr. as a wide receiver three this week against the Lions. Despite the Lions having the 10th most single high percentage, which could create one or two shot plays for Harrison, Harmon's answer is a flat 'no' to starting him at WR3.

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NegativeMatchup62:06

Matt Harmon would start both Carnell Tate and Denzel Boston over Marvin Harrison Jr. for Week 5, indicating a downgrade in his matchup ranking for the week.

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Michael Mayer

PositiveUsage27:08

Mayer is one of three leading target earners for Las Vegas with 24 targets through four weeks, tied with Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentry. The Raiders' offense is historically unique: no wide receiver ranks in the top three target earners, and tight ends collectively command 37.5% of team targets (first in NFL). Ray Fitterer and Matt Harmon suggest Mayer, Bowers, and Gentry 'might have all three of these guys in play' despite a difficult matchup against New England.

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NegativeRole30:30

Mayer is a true inline tight end, lining up left 33% and right 45% of snaps, with only 4.8% wide and 15% slot usage—the opposite profile of Brock Bowers. He's a very good player in the traditional tight end role within the Raiders' two-tight-end offense, but he's battling Trey Tucker for targets and may see inconsistent volume week-to-week. Matt Harmon notes he had a game last week with 'just some kind of layup bunny hop catches,' highlighting the efficiency variance in the offense.

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Michael Wilson

PositiveUsage52:56

Wilson has been eating from a volume standpoint with 30 targets over the last two weeks combined. He's positioned well in the Cardinals' matchup against the Lions, who allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season.

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Mike Evans

PositiveProjection63:21

Mike Evans is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon notes that when Evans is on the field, he and T Higgins are really good and can be metronomes of their offense.

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Omarion Hampton

PositiveRole68:27

Matt Harmon criticizes the Chargers' three-running-back committee approach despite Hampton's talent, noting that it would be better if the team "gave it all to Omarion Hampton" rather than splitting carries. Hampton scored in Week 5, which Harmon acknowledges as a positive, but the overall offensive dysfunction and committee usage remain concerning for his fantasy ceiling.

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Pat Bryant

PositiveRole47:27

Bryant's target opportunities are being suppressed by Denver's offensive scheme that prioritizes check-downs to R.J. Harvey over pass catchers. Bo Nix is not pushing the ball downfield or over the middle, limiting Bryant's involvement in the passing game.

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RJ Harvey

NegativeRole15:56

Harvey is a receiving running back who gets a few touches out of the backfield with negative 12% air yard share (all behind the line of scrimmage). The logical takeaway is this is his role; he's not scoring touchdowns and represents a PPR running back scam where volume doesn't translate to consistent fantasy production.

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PositiveSleeper46:48

RJ Harvey is the NFL's most frequently targeted route runner despite only 12 carries through four games; he has 21 targets on 50 routes (42% target rate, highest among 250+ qualified pass catchers with minimum 26 routes). In Week 4, he posted 10 targets on 19 routes (53%), totaling 19.3 PPR points without a touchdown. Bo Nix leads qualifying QBs with a 33% Week 4 check-down rate (19% full season, third-highest in NFL), and Denver leads the NFL in RB target share (28%, rising to 37% in Week 4). Harvey's ground game is negligible, but his receiving volume and efficiency make him a high-upside play.

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PositiveUsage47:45

Harvey is drawing elite per-route opportunity among NFL running backs; Matt Harmon ranks him alongside Gibbs, Kyron Williams, and Chase Brown in usage tracking, despite only 12 rush attempts in Week 4. His -12.3% air yard share indicates all targets come behind the line of scrimmage as check-downs from Bo Nix, who averaged 5.3 yards to target (3 yards worse than NFL average) and is not scrambling due to ankle injury history. Sean Payton's deployment pattern suggests Harvey is the pass-catching back while Jonah Coleman and J.K. Dobbins handle rushing; Harvey will get few carries once Coleman returns.

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Sam LaPorta

PositiveMatchup53:03

LaPorta is positioned well in the Lions-Cardinals matchup where both teams want to throw the ball and both defenses allow significant passing volume. The Cardinals allow the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, supporting LaPorta's inclusion in the Lions' passing game.

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Tee Higgins

PositiveProjection63:21

Tee Higgins is listed among the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, gaining a first down on more than 11% of his routes among players who have run routes on over 50% of their team's drop backs; Matt Harmon notes that when Higgins is on the field, he and Mike Evans are really good and can be metronomes of their offense.

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Terry McLaurin

NegativeProjection23:35

Terry McLaurin is starting to get on base in the fourth to fifth round wide receiver tier where there were going to be some big hits and some big misses.

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Tony Pollard

NegativeRole42:09

Titans running back workload is split between Pollard and Spears with Singleton also involved, preventing consolidation to a single back; this fragmented committee approach limits fantasy upside despite 17th-ranked rushing efficiency.

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Tre Tucker

PositiveUsage27:08

Tucker ranks just outside the top three target earners for Las Vegas with 23 targets through four weeks, despite being a wide receiver. The Raiders rank last in the NFL in wide receiver target share at 41.9%, with no wide receiver in the top three target earners—an unprecedented offensive allocation pattern across 544 team seasons from 2009–2025.

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NegativeRole32:02

Tucker is positioned right behind Bowers in the Raiders' receiving hierarchy. Matt Harmon notes he's battling Michael Mayer for targets in the offense, suggesting limited upside given the team's reliance on tight ends and lack of an emerging wide receiver. The offense is running 58% 12-personnel in week four, prioritizing two-tight-end looks over wide receiver deployment.

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Trey McBride

PositiveMatchup53:03

McBride is positioned for an awesome week as the Lions allow the most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season. The Cardinals face a pass-heavy matchup environment, and if Jacoby Brissett has time to throw, McBride should produce.

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Will Shipley

NegativeProjection6:39

Matt Harmon expresses uncertainty about playing Will Shipley given the Eagles' catastrophic offensive performance. The Eagles' offense is the worst-performing through four weeks of a season this century by success rate, with only 172 total yards in Week 4 and 68 net passing yards (lowest in 23 years). The offense is averaging 1.5 punts per scoring drive (fourth worst), running 57.5 plays per game (26 fewer than league average), and posting a 37% rushing success rate (26th). Harmon's rhetorical question—"Do we play Wicks? Do we play lemon? What do we do with this week with Will Shipley?"—suggests the answer is likely nobody besides Jalen Hurts should be played from this offense.

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NegativeRole12:06

Matt Harmon mentions Will Shipley in the context of the Eagles' running back situation, noting that Shipley is their third-string running back option. The mention is brief and contextual, indicating Shipley's depth chart position without specific fantasy projection.

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Zay Flowers

NegativeUsage47:27

Zay Flowers has the second-highest target rate among qualified pass catchers at 40%, behind RJ Harvey's 42%. In Week 4, Flowers was targeted 10 times on 19 routes (53% of his routes), accumulating 10 targets and 68 yards.

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Episode Transcript

1,091
0:00Big show for you here today. It is the Week 5 Data Dump with Ray Garvin.
0:05We got a ton to get into today. We have a surprise retirement to discuss right off the rip here.
0:11Lane Johnson ends his career. Philadelphia Eagles, their offense already not looking so good.
0:16Definitely not going to get any better than what we have seen so far without Lane Johnson.
0:21Ray and I talked through that. All the stats you need to know heading into Week 5.
0:26Some rookie receivers on the rise. Some run games that might present some hidden value.
0:31Plus, we got a recap of our Yahoo Fantasy League.
0:34Your boy took his first loss, and I'm going to try to take it with some dignity.
0:39All that and more caught up on today's show.
0:42Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:46Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, and it is a hell of a day to talk ball, and joining me to do
0:52just that is my guy, Ray Garvin. Ray, what's going on, man?
0:56Matt, I'm feeling good. Feeling good. There was some news that we'll talk about here in a second, but the biggest news
1:03that I know you won't discuss because you are – I don't want to call you a hater, but you don't like
1:10some of the pre-show banter when me and producer Colin talk about the Cowboys.
1:14Tyler Smith, all pro guard, back for the Dallas Cowboys.
1:17We are rolling, baby. Winning big last Sunday. Thursday night matchup I'm excited for.
1:22I'll be at that game, by the way. So, yeah, I'm feeling great.
1:26I'm feeling great right now. Cowboys are flying high inside of the riveting NFC East.
1:31Yeah, for a second there, I was going to, you know, just begrudge you for taking the mantle from actual real NFC
1:37East offensive line news that is cataclysmic here for a certain team in the division.
1:42Yeah, and yet, that is a good note that you're going to be at the game on Thursday.
1:48I'm going to actually text you after that game and get your live scouting report so that I can talk about it on the Thursday night recap.
1:56How does that sound? That sounds good, baby. I got you.
2:00I got you. Okay, perfect. Yeah, we have everything that we usually do here on the Tuesday show.
2:05It's the 10 stats. You need to know the data dump.
2:09Of course, we also have the Yahoo Fantasy League recap at the end of the show.
2:14But as Ray said, we had some massive news that happened.
2:17Thankfully, it's bad news for the player and the team might be good news for the player.
2:22You know, we'll talk about it. We'll see. But it's not great news for Eagles fans.
2:27However, it is good timing because our very first topic of the day is going to be on that particular team.
2:34So without any further ado, welcome to the week five data dump.
2:38Yes, science. My calculations are correct. You're going to see some serious.
2:42Yes. As mentioned, it's not great news for the Philadelphia Eagles, but it is good timing for us, Ray, because your first
2:48data point was going to be about the Philadelphia Eagles.
2:52And then literally five minutes before we went live here on the YouTube channel, Lane Johnson posts on Twitter that he is retiring.
2:59He said, Philadelphia, you are truly the city of brotherly love, the best fans and the most prideful city in the entire world.
3:06I've given it all for 14 years, season after season, pushing my body to the max and tirelessly working my craft to
3:13not only live up to the legacy of the guys that came before me, but to set a new standard of success
3:20for the best franchise in all of sports. Goes on to say he wanted to D you wanted deeply to gut it out for one more year.
3:28But I think at this point, his body just can no longer take it here.
3:33And, you know, it was the warning signs were coming here, Ray, that something was up right with Lane Johnson.
3:39When we had a late news on Sunday morning, he was going to be inactive for a personal reason.
3:45Brandon Graham, as we talked about on the recap show, theorized that he might be ready to announce his retirement.
3:51That is indeed what has happened. So we don't always talk about offensive lineman news on the fantasy show, even though we absolutely should much more often.
4:00This is a big deal here. This is one of the needle moving offensive linemen in the NFL.
4:05The on off splits are crazy high with him, Ray.
4:08And we're officially going to be off for a long time.
4:12The rest of time here, because Lane Johnson is retiring from the NFL and leaving the Philadelphia Eagles.
4:17Yeah. And if I'm not mistaken, I do believe that coming into the season, there were question marks whether he was going to play or not.
4:26There was some ambiguity and he ended up deciding to come back and play.
4:30But four weeks into the season, this is so tough because they have been together the entire training camp cycle with him playing right tackle.
4:38And to adjust this on the fly, in the middle of the season, I, whew, this is rough for a Philadelphia Eagles
4:45team and offense that have not been good. It doesn't get, I'll tell you this, Matt.
4:50I can't tell you what happens when they plug in Markel Bell, rookie tackle from the University of Miami.
4:56But I can assure you of this, it does not get better losing Lane Johnson.
5:00And this is rough for Philadelphia. Yeah, it really is rough.
5:04And man, it's just, you did feel, like you said, you felt this kind of coming where Lane Johnson said he'd want,
5:11this was going to be his last year, no matter what.
5:14But just physically can't do it. And this guy's been at the top of the profession for a long time.
5:20He's an instant hall of famer as soon as he's eligible.
5:24So he's done. And this is an offensive line that's really struggled, Ray.
5:28The entire identity of this offense is supposed to be built on the run game.
5:32They're supposed to be more of an under center team this year.
5:36The under center stuff is not happening for them.
5:39The offensive transition is not happening for them. They are a rough watch right now.
5:44And to your point, it's not going to get better here without Lane Johnson.
5:48Lane Johnson can be 80% of himself and still be significantly better than a vast majority of the starting tackles in the NFL.
5:55So looking at the depth chart right now, this is just not the unit that was supposed to be, right?
6:02We're severely downgraded here. Really, it's just Jordan Mailata right now, the stalwart left tackle.
6:06Tyler Steen is in his correct position, but that's it.
6:09And Steen is probably there on paper when everybody was supposed to be healthy this year.
6:14Their worst starting offensive lineman. Not a bad player necessarily, but their worst starting offensive lineman.
6:19So shocking news here on the Lane Johnson retirement and just has massive trickle down effects.
6:24So with that, with that in the background, let's talk more about why the Eagles offense has been a disaster so far, Ray.
6:32Yeah, Matt, this is one where, again, I'm trying to put our minds back into what our expectations were coming into the season.
6:39And regardless if you or I thought that they were going to be an elite offense, I don't think anybody predicted that
6:46they would be as bad as they are right now.
6:49So let me give you some points here about Philadelphia's offense.
6:52I'm sure we've seen a lot of them. Their offense right now, they are third overall in the NFL in wide receiver
6:59target share, but yet only tied for 15th in overall wide receiver targets.
7:03They direct 68% of their targets to the wide receiver position, which is third highest in the NFL, but only 72 collective
7:10targets to the wide receiver position this season, which is tied for 15th.
7:14So a huge share of this offense is producing ordinary volume.
7:17They are averaging almost one and a half punts per offensive scoring drive, fourth worst in the NFL.
7:23That is approximately 55% more punts per score than the league average of 0.94.
7:27Philly runs about 57 and a half plays per game, which is 26 versus a league average of 62, 18 fewer plays across four games.
7:35Neither phase works consistently for this offense. 38% passing success rate, 29th.
7:3937% rushing success rate, 26th. Both of those sit below league average of about 45.3 and 41.7% respectively.
7:45They are converting only 36% of their third downs, which is 27th.
7:48And they gain about 4.7 yards per play, which is 27th.
7:52The offensive struggles are both like just it's, it's, it's, they struggle.
7:56They're not creating any type of plays. And this is just breaking down like high level, how they played throughout this season.
8:02If we go to like second half offense, listen to this.
8:06The Eagles with 172 yards of total offense, right?
8:09Their lowest total in a game in 12 years is what happened this past weekend.
8:1368 net passing yards in week four. Lowest total in a regular season game in the last 23 years.
8:19And here's the kicker, man. Based on success rate, this Eagles offense, it is the worst offense.
8:25It's the worst Eagles offense has performed through four weeks of a season.
8:29This century, the century as like 50 years plus 50 more years.
8:32The worst this offense has performed via success rate through the first four weeks of a season.
8:38It is so bad yet. We're looking around. Do we play Wicks?
8:42Do we play lemon? What do we do with this week with Will Shipley?
8:46Like the answer right here, Matt Harmon, it might be nobody besides like, I always keep saying Jalen hurts is good for Jalen hurts.
8:53And that's about it. This is gone from concerning to bad to full blown panic real fast in a month of the NFL season.
9:01Yeah, we had total panic on the Eagles offense yesterday on the panic meter show.
9:06I'm sure you're going to have the same in the column.
9:09And I mean, is Jalen hurts even good for Jalen hurts at this point?
9:13He's not had a true, you know, bottom out fantasy season here, but he's not been close to what you wanted.
9:20I mean, he had the 24.7 points in week one when everybody was healthy and that's great.
9:25But, um, Tennessee in week two, 16 points, Chicago, 12.6 Rams this past week, 13.5.
9:30I don't think he's got the juice to run anymore.
9:33Um, as a design runner, I think that's just steadily been gone down, like going down and they're not doing any of that at this point.
9:41So is, is Jalen hurts even a guy that we can rank as a must start in fantasy?
9:47I would argue no here because Ray, not only in everything, all everything we're saying here, which is obviously all bad.
9:53But the other thing that's, that's rough here too, is that, I mean, this Jags defense that they're playing week five is awesome.
10:01I'll talk about more of that in a second here, but do you think we can even rank Jalen hurts as a starting fantasy quarterback this week?
10:09No, no. The answer is no. You pointed something out just a second ago, the rushing for hurts.
10:15Like that's always been sort of his saving grace is despite the fact, whatever you want to say about him throwing the football, passing efficiency.
10:22We knew he was never going to be Aaron Rogers.
10:26He, you could count on his legs. You could count on him to score touchdowns like the tush push that they're not
10:32even in position to use it because they're not at the goal line to do any of that.
10:38Now you talk about losing Lane Johnson, you're inserting.
10:41And if I'm not mistaken, the tackle that's starting now in place of Lane Johnson, and I'm going back to the college football.
10:48Well, he was at Miami, but I don't even think he was there.
10:52Like he wasn't like a highly rated recruit. Markel Bell, when he was at my, this is not a good tackle.
10:59He's, he's a, he's a project, he's a project tackle.
11:02This is somebody they probably wanted to see. Yeah.
11:05He's huge behind Lane Johnson, but I, I'm looking at this, look at the screen, Matt, like where?
11:10Yeah. I don't even know what to say about this right now.
11:14This has gone from bad to worse to abysmal real fast.
11:17I mean, yeah, not just not a lot of good players here.
11:21And I think that's kind of the reality of the situation with where the Eagles are.
11:26I mean, we'll see what will Shipley is, but that's where we're at from a running back perspective.
11:32That's obviously their third string guy. Devante Smith being out is a Jenga piece type of player.
11:37That's how good he is. You know, Darius Cooper runs 91% of the routes in week two did make a couple of
11:44sick catches, but I'm not sure that he's somebody that you want running 91% of the routes in week four.
11:50Makai Lemon has just been a total nothing burger so far, which I think is predictable because he's a rookie receiver that
11:57missed a ton of time in training camp. But what's your level of panic on the fact that there's all this opportunity
12:04in the world for Lemon to get going. And I mean, we've just really seen almost nothing at this point.
12:10They're not running enough plays. It's three and out, three and out, three and out, three and out, three and out, right?
12:17Like there's just, I'm not trying to, we get accused on this show of being fear mongers, but right now you need to be fearful.
12:25And looking around from Lemon to Wicks, you know, whenever Devante Smith is back, like there just needs to be some significant improvements on this team.
12:33And losing, I don't want to call him Hall of Fame, but a perennial Pro Bowl caliber right tackle, one of the best right tackles of his era.
12:42Can we call him Hall of Fame? Can we go there?
12:45Can we go? I just, I don't want the O-line enthusiasts coming at us, but a Hall of Fame level player in the middle of the season, Matt.
12:54This is, it's this, football is not like Madden.
12:57Okay? In Madden, you can just sub out a player, put somebody else in and just continue to play the game and it works well.
13:05Like this is going to take some time to get, to get right.
13:09And for fantasy, I just don't think we have enough time to really depend on any Eagle right now.
13:15And I'm looking at Devante, I'm staring at Devante Smith.
13:18Like even when he's back, he's a lower end fantasy option for us and probably will not hit the expectation level that we had.
13:25Yeah, I'm still open to Smith being good once he gets back, but when is he going to get back?
13:31It's a hamstring injury. You know, he's definitely going to miss this week and he maybe missed the week six game against the Carolina Panthers back in Philadelphia.
13:40That's a tough part of all this too, by the way, in the middle of everything happening with this team right now,
13:47all the chaos, all of just the poor play on the field.
13:51And now they're dealing with the Lane Johnson retirement.
13:54They got to get on a frigging plane and go to England.
13:57They're playing, they're playing the Jags and Tottenham this week.
14:01So, and like I said, that Jags defense is awesome.
14:04Okay. Going back and watching the Bengals film, I can't believe I'm saying this, but charting Dante Myers for reception perception, the
14:11Bengals wide receiver three, really interesting player. I was just so impressed with that Jags defense, just how quick they closed these holes in zone coverage.
14:19I mean, you know, I was a huge Travis Hunter enthusiast as a wide receiver prospect.
14:24After watching him play cornerback these last two weeks, I'm like, I don't need to ever see him play wide receiver again.
14:31That's how good he's been as a cornerback. He's been fan freaking tastic.
14:35Even one of the plays where they allow a first down to Myers, Myers turns around and Travis Hunter is right there to pop him on the sideline.
14:43I mean, he's playing great. The whole secondary is electric right now.
14:47They just closed these windows against zone coverage so quickly.
14:50I'm not sure the Wicks lemon hurts passing attack matches up well here with this team right now.
14:56So yeah, I mean, they need, I don't know what they need, but they come back and then they get the Panthers,
15:03the Cowboys, the commanders and the giants for their week 10 by the schedule is, you know, it's, it's fine.
15:09Like from a defense perspective, those are not the toughest defenses in the entire NFL, but I need like a prove it
15:16game from this Eagles offense at this point. And I'm just not sure we're getting one this week.
15:21Matt, just real quick. What is your confidence level with Will Shipley?
15:25And we're just assuming that they're probably gonna have to call somebody up.
15:29Damian Pierce, Jaden blue. How do you feel about Shipley this week?
15:33I mean, God, I hope you're not in a position where you got to start Will Shipley.
15:38I mean, all right. Now I have him as my running back 27 to 29.
15:43You know, you're, you're looking at, again, this is, this is assuming that he's going to be the guy, which I think is a bad assumption.
15:51I'm not even sure about that. But, you know, I'll certainly slot him in around that.
15:56RJ Harvey, Ja'Cory Kroski, Merritt, Dave Montgomery, Ramondre Stevenson's owners.
15:59Like, I don't know. I'm really excited about any of these options.
16:03Like, maybe he outperforms some of those players. But the Jags run defense has been really strong as well.
16:09So just not a lot of positive indicators coming out of Philadelphia right now.
16:13My last thing just to say about this, two last things.
16:17One, definitely, you know, I'm not going to be full on panic mode on Makai Lemon from a dynasty standpoint, but certainly
16:24not getting off to the start that you want here.
16:27You know, is there a new coaching staff in town next year?
16:31I think we might get to that question here pretty soon.
16:34Lastly, just wish Lane Johnson all the best. Just, you know, in his announcement, he talked about, like, his mental health, essentially,
16:41and how he feels he just is not in the space to give his all to his team and everything.
16:47It's just, it's a constant reminder. These guys are human beings.
16:51They're dealing with a lot. And this is somebody that has absolutely put his body on the line consistently for this team.
16:57And, you know, just one of the, I mean, he's one of the best offensive linemen of my kind of football conscious era.
17:05Right. And just a great player for such a long time.
17:08Just wish him all the best in retirement. Ray, you know, it's always a constant reminder.
17:13These guys are, these guys are human beings. Can I say something to that real quick?
17:18And I don't know if you heard, I don't know if it's his podcast, but Todd Gurley was on a show with
17:25Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr this week, talking about just how he could do regular things once he stopped playing football.
17:31And he was just talking about washing like a bar of soap.
17:35And he was like, just being able to lift my arms up.
17:39And he said, you don't realize these things until you're done playing.
17:43But he said, he's watching the NFL running backs today thinking like, why the hell was I ever doing that for as long as I did?
17:51And they asked him, do you ever regret it?
17:54Do you regret leaving when you did? And he said, absolutely not.
17:57And that was one of the best running backs that we could remember right during our time, Todd Gurley.
18:03So good for Lane Johnson. It sucks that it's happened right here, but you got to listen to your body and wish him all the best.
18:11No doubt. And hope the Eagles can get it together now without him.
18:16But that is going to be a tall task.
18:18We'll continue to monitor the way that offense performs over the next two weeks.
18:23Okay. My first data point is actually a list from our Yahoo internal data.
18:27I have 15 players here that have a higher than 55% win rate on Yahoo Fantasy through the first four weeks of the season.
18:35Essentially, these are the best picks you could make here.
18:38Number one is Kenneth Walker. All these guys, again, are about 55% here.
18:42So they're only 15. Kenneth Walker is number one.
18:45Jackson Smith and Jigba. Kyron Williams. CeeDee Lamb. Jameer Gibbs.
18:48Derek Henry. Javante Williams. How about that? Josh Allen.
18:51Chris Olave. George Kittle. B. John Robinson. Devontae Adams.
18:53Teddero McMillan. Christian Watson. And Chuba Hubbard. Two Panthers in the top 15.
18:57What do you know? Yeah, the one guy who does stand out here is, and this is something we've been talking about, the best potential late round values.
19:06I guess two of them here, you know, outside the top four or so rounds.
19:11It's Chuba Hubbard and it's George Kittle. Just, it's almost a cautionary tale for betting on guys who have just been hurt to not stay hurt.
19:19That's the Chuba Hubbard story because we got excited about Jonathan Brooks.
19:23People got excited about Jonathan Brooks. Well, unfortunately, he's on IR.
19:26We know the story there. Hubbard's been balling. And for Kittle, it's, well, I don't even know what to say.
19:32I mean, the guy tore his Achilles not that long ago at the end of last season in the playoffs.
19:39And he's ripping off 50-yard touchdown catches. Catching runs on screens against the Denver Broncos.
19:43So it's kind of two sides of the injury coin there.
19:47But obviously a lot of great players here, Ray.
19:50Any reaction to an individual player or trend from this list?
19:53This is such a cool list. I'm glad you brought this up, Hartman.
19:57I mean, we probably could do a whole show just talking through these players relative to ADP.
20:02I guess my first thought is, okay, you've got some big dogs.
20:06JSN, first-round pick. Bijan Robinson, first-round pick. Jameer Gibbs, first-round pick.
20:10Obviously, right? They're there. They're coming off the board early.
20:13I'm looking at some of the other players. CeeDee Lamb.
20:16I think that's an interesting one, Matt. Because a lot of people said, eh, why take CeeDee at the back of the
20:23first when you get George Pickens in the third or the fourth round?
20:27And, you know, right now that's not looking good.
20:30Well... That's not looking great. You know, Kenneth Walker, again, this is one where I just...
20:35I said it during our draft. I said it during the summertime.
20:38People overthought this one. You know, we had wanted Kansas City to have a running back for years.
20:44We chased bad ones from Carson Steele to Isaiah Pacheco to Clyde Edwards-Elair.
20:48And then they finally went out and got one that was pretty good.
20:52And what do you know? Number one. Pretty doggone good Kenneth Walker.
20:56And then, you know, you look at some of these other ones.
21:00And I'm curious your perspective from a receiving standpoint.
21:02When you're looking at Olave, McMillan, Christian Watson. I know I was a big tech guy coming in.
21:08I'm like, look, I'm not worried about Bryce. He's the one.
21:11Now, obviously, his performances past week with Jalen Coker being out has probably helps that number out some.
21:17But you look at him and Watson and Olave, like, there were bets on the offense, bets on the quarterback.
21:23Like, we didn't really know what we were getting out of Tyler Shuck.
21:27But Olave's been great. McMillan has got an opportunity.
21:30Christian Watson looks like he stepped up to be a number one wide receiver for that team.
21:36You know, I think there's a little bit of everything on this top 15 list.
21:40You've got late-round values. You've got mid-round values. You've got your superstars at the top.
21:45I just think this is a really, really cool list.
21:48Right here to look at. Because there's a chance that you on your fantasy rosters have multiple of these guys on your team.
21:55And golly, Matt, what if you have two or three of these guys?
21:59Four of them, potentially. You're cruising. Very much so.
22:02Like, at the turn, you could have grabbed CeeDee Lamb and Kenneth Walker.
22:06You could have grabbed Kenneth Walker and Derrick Henry.
22:09I mean, looking at the... I'm looking back at consensus ADP right now on Fantasy Pros just to get a glimpse of the entire industry.
22:17By the way, shout out to us. We did beat this drum with Kenneth Walker that he was a pick at the turn.
22:24He went 13th overall off the board on Yahoo Drafts.
22:27That was the highest across the industry here. But he's the 16th overall player in consensus ADP.
22:32Again, yeah. CeeDee Lamb was the 11th overall player off the board.
22:36You could have grabbed a CeeDee Lamb and a Kenneth Walker.
22:40He'd be filmed. Great. 15th overall off the board is Kyron Williams.
22:43Javante Williams is 29th off the board. You know, Chris Olave is a third-round pick.
22:4827th overall off the board. You could have grabbed three of those guys very realistically.
22:53Had an excellent start. You know, yeah. Olave was a great pick.
22:56Talked about him a lot this summer as somebody that was really rising.
23:00And then that fourth round, the fourth to fifth round wide receivers, we talked about that area a ton that there was going to be some big hits.
23:09There were going to be some big misses. And then there were going to be some guys that just got on base.
23:16I think guys like Garrett Wilson, you know, he's gotten on base.
23:20DJ Moore when he's healthy, he's gotten on base.
23:23Terry McLaurin is starting to get there at this point.
23:26But the big hits have been McMillan and it's been Christian Watson.
23:30And there's been some – and Devontae Adams, by the way, who wasn't someone that anybody was really excited about.
23:36We know that Pukunakua has obviously missed a lot of time here.
23:40So some of this stuff is going to look different.
23:43I mean, guys like Devontae Adams, maybe they don't last on this list.
23:47You know, we'll see about Chris Olave. I mean, I think a lot of these guys have great sustainability.
23:53But it's the players, I think, up towards the top.
23:56There's always some season-defining players. I think Kenneth Walker, JSN, Kyron Williams, to your point last week with all the receiving usage, that kept up once again.
24:04Very prescient analysis from you this past week. CD Lamb, these guys.
24:08These are going to be the players that define fantasy football, I think, this season.
24:13Can I get your thoughts on Josh Allen? The only quarterback on this list, Josh Allen.
24:18And the age-old kind of expression and fantasy, you know, shout-out to JJ, late-round QB.
24:22You don't have to draft one early because you can get a bunch of replaceable guys later.
24:28Like, just gut feel. Is he – like, how – I know we're being reactionary here, but like, what is he worth, Matt?
24:35If you don't have JSN or Puka, like, is he worth a second-round pick?
24:39Like, if we had to redo a redraft league today, like, what is Josh Allen truly worth?
24:45Positional value be damned. You don't get Gibbs. You don't get Bijan.
24:48Like, what's he worth right now, in your opinion?
24:51Yeah, I mean, I think he goes right where he went.
24:55You know, 21st off the board, 22nd in Yahoo drafts, 20th in some others, 20th.
24:59I think that's where he goes. Second-round pick? That's where – he – there is a gap between him and everybody else.
25:06And, look, the last two weeks haven't been as great for Josh Allen, but, oh, boo-hoo.
25:11You know, you're going to get a couple of low-ish games.
25:15But from a season-long standpoint, he is the best quarterback in fantasy by a good bit here.
25:20He's averaging 27.9 – just under 28 points per game.
25:23QB 2, Brock Purdy, who was an eighth-round pick, which, again, that's a huge shout-out to him.
25:28But 25 points per game. Then it drops to Bryce Young, 22 points per game.
25:33Caleb Williams, 22.5. If you're noticing, I haven't said the names.
25:36Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, that next tier of quarterbacks, right?
25:40That's the thing that when you're doing the early-round quarterback stuff – Drake May, obviously, great last week.
25:45But he was an early-ish-round quarterback, mid-round quarterback that is letting people down.
25:49Those are the guys that have really hurt you this year.
25:53Not that Joe Burrow's been bad. Not that Lamar's been bad.
25:56But it's just relative to the position value around them when you can get even better performances from a guy like Brock Purdy.
26:0355% win percentage. QB 2 on the season, as I mentioned.
26:07Jared Goff, 53% win percentage. Tyler Shuck, 52%. Bryce Young was undrafted.
26:10I mean, you can find these guys later on.
26:13Yeah, I totally agree. You know, you've got a hit on the right one.
26:18I think you nailed it. Where you really feel the pain is if you did draft Jaden Daniels right after Josh Allen
26:25or Drake May right after Josh Allen trying to chase it.
26:28And then you missed out on that round 3-4 running back receiver.
26:32And if you did that, you probably did not take another quarterback later.
26:36You're like, oh, I got Jaden. Right? I didn't get Josh Allen, but I've got Jaden Daniels, so I'm fine.
26:42So I think that's where you feel that pain a little bit more.
26:46But overall, this is – Matt, we need to bring this one back up again.
26:51You know, maybe in a couple of weeks we run this one back.
26:55I really like this list. And hopefully, if you are watching this or listening to this, you've got three of these guys.
27:02And you're feeling pretty good in your leagues right now.
27:05Yeah, we'll definitely do this again after eight weeks.
27:08This is sort of the quarter point check-in. We'll do a halfway check-in on the win percentage.
27:13So, yeah, I definitely was the one who obviously did the hard work to pull this data.
27:18I totally didn't just take this screenshot from our fearless leader, Jason Klabaka, on the group email.
27:24I totally didn't do that. I did all the work here for sure.
27:28No, we'll run those numbers once again after the next four weeks of the season.
27:32But, Ray, let's get to your second data point here heading into week five.
27:37Yeah, Matt, I ran some numbers as well. And you will appreciate this one because it's about the Las Vegas Raiders.
27:43So, I looked at some individual team data from 2009 to October 6, 2026.
27:48And there has not been an offense through four weeks over 544 team offensive seasons where the top three target earners for
27:55a team have been two tight ends and a running back.
27:58Michael Mayer, 24 targets. Brock Bowers, 24 targets. Ashton Gentry, 24 targets.
28:02Those are your three leading target earners inside of this Las Vegas Raiders offense.
28:06No wide receiver. You got Trey Tucker right on the outside at 23.
28:10Bowers has reached this 24 target total in two games.
28:13Vegas ranks last in wide receiver target share in the NFL, 41.9%.
28:17First in tight end target share, 37.5%. It's RBs and tight ends collectively are receiving 58% of the targets inside of this Raiders offense.
28:25When you look at the target share overall last week for Las Vegas, it's just tight end, tight end, tight end.
28:31Ashton Gentry, Ashton Gentry, Ashton Gentry. This is wild to me.
28:35Like, I was like, has this ever happened before?
28:37And I can't go as far as to say ever.
28:40But in 544 team season studies from 2009 to 2025, to get to week four and you do not have a wide
28:47receiver as one of your top three target earners?
28:50Absolutely wild. So the fantasy takeaway here. I get that they've got a difficult matchup against the New England Patriots.
28:56But I do think that Michael Mayer, in conjunction with Brock Bowers, with Ashton Gentry, like you might have all three of these guys in play.
29:05And a big part of that reason, Matt, is because Brock Bowers really isn't a tight end.
29:10Like, the reality is he's kind of like a wide receiver.
29:13He's split out. He's out wide. He's in the slot.
29:16He's not your traditional inline tight end. But just to see those numbers of no team has done what Clint Kubiak is doing right now.
29:242009, I was still in undergrad. Matt, and I'm a little older than you.
29:29I don't want to date myself. I know I look young, right?
29:32But I'm a little older than you. I was in undergrad during that time, at least from when the study can go back and pull data that's consistent.
29:41Like, what do you think about Mayer and Bowers and Gentry and this team just running everything through their tight ends and running backs right now?
29:49First of all, I graduated high school in 2009.
29:52Went to my freshman year in college, 2009. So you're not that much older than me, pal.
29:57You know, don't worry. You're not that old. Wait, I graduated college in 2009.
30:02Yeah, no, no, no, no. Look, you're old, but you're not that old is what I'm saying here, okay?
30:08So, yeah, you're fine. No, but the Brock Bowers part of it is the biggest deal, how different this is.
30:14Because, yes, so far this season, he has run or he's been a tight end on the left side of the formation on 8% of his snaps.
30:22He's been a tight end on the right side, like a true inline guy on 6% of his snaps on the right.
30:29So, you know, you're looking at 14-ish percent, 14, 50% of his snaps there, right?
30:34So that's very unique, of course, when we're talking about the Brock Bowers situation here.
30:39Yeah, he's a totally different animal than your typical tight end.
30:42I mean, for comparison's sake, Michael Mayer, been a tight end on the left for 33%, been a tight end on the right for 45%.
30:50He's much more of a true inline guy. Only 4.8% of his snaps has been lined up out wide, 15% in the slot.
30:57For Bowers this year, it's 47% wide, 37% slot, 1.8% backfield.
31:00He's a movable chess piece. Now, listen, I've said this a lot.
31:04I am not charting Brock Bowers for reception perception until he's got a WR next to his name.
31:10So if his agent wants to get in touch with me, I'm totally down to do that.
31:15We want to work that contract out. Let's do it.
31:18I'm going to continue to lobby for that one.
31:21But for the most part, he's a move tight end that moves all across formation as a mismatched nightmare.
31:27He's not lining up as the X receiver necessarily.
31:30They're going to sacrifice some of these other guys to do that.
31:34But he's running real deal routes down the football field.
31:3732% target share so far this year when he's been active.
31:4034% air yard share. 10 air yards per target.
31:43He's not just getting these little Mickey Mouse dump off looks.
31:46In order to pull off the true tight end offense where you do run through these two guys, you have to have
31:53a unicorn type player, which is what Brock Bowers is.
31:56But because the two tight ends are integral to their offense, I mean, they're definitely going to be some weeks where Michael
32:03Mayer has a game like he did last week where he has just some kind of layup bunny hop catches.
32:10And I guess the question here, Ray, is what's the sustainability factor to all of this?
32:15You know, can they continue to be this really efficient, effective offense where I'm looking at my offensive efficiency metrics right now?
32:21I mean, the Raiders are one of the biggest overperformers relative to last year.
32:26They're 15th in the NFL. They were 17 spots higher than where they finished last season in these metrics.
32:32So they're definitely like, can they sustain that? Can this continue to go without a wide receiver really emerging here?
32:38I think that is the million dollar question. And when I'm looking at the usage, I'm just, I'm following what has been done.
32:45And Trey Tucker's right behind him. So I'm not, I don't want, it's literally, listen, this is Meriden.
32:51Yeah, he's a good player. But overall, there's nobody else, right?
32:54Jalen Naylor doesn't really get used. You and I both like Jack Besh's skill set, but he's not, they're not deploying him
33:01in a way that it's going to be fantasy relevant.
33:04Yeah, they're just, they're not. So I'm focusing on what they're doing and what we saw weeks one through three, 12 personnel for the Raiders.
33:1232.3% weeks one through three. And a lot of that, you know, you've got two weeks without Brock Bowers.
33:18In week four, that 12 personnel usage jumped up to 58%.
33:21So maybe they feel a lot more confident. Hey, Brock can do it.
33:25Mayer is good in this kind of traditional tight end role.
33:29He's a very good player as well. But it might be a byproduct of them not feeling confident in their wide receiver core.
33:36And the, in the under, the, the, the hidden sort of usage inside of this offense is Ashton Gentry.
33:42The fact that he's at 24 targets, right? So Bauer's going to get his, Gentry's going to get his.
33:48And then you've got Mayer kind of battling it out with, with Trey Tucker.
33:52And it feels like Kirk Cousins. And if we just go back to when Cousins was, was dealing, like he throws to the tight end.
34:00Cousins is, Cousins is trying to get that ball out quick.
34:04Cousins ain't trying to hold the ball and run around and do all of these things.
34:09So can it sustain? I do think that this week will be a really good test, a really good test on the road against New England.
34:17I don't know if Christian Gonzalez is going to play or not.
34:20And that would have been a really good battle to see him versus Brock Bowers if they would actually line him up against Bowers.
34:28Which, I'd say maybe. They're not doing a lot on the ground.
34:32They can't really run the ball. So it feels like they've got to throw the football right now.
34:37And you've got a good offensive play caller in Kubiak.
34:40If I had to bet on it right now, Matt, I would give more credit to them being able to sustain some level of this versus not.
34:49Because they just don't have the receiver to go out there and deploy in that way.
34:54Yeah, they really don't. And, I mean, it was a good game plan against Steve Spagnuolo, too, to attack, get some of the DBs off the field.
35:02I haven't looked at the exact percentage of what was dime and nickel and base defense and everything.
35:08But, you know, get some of the linebackers on the field, split some of those safety looks with the linebackers in this past week's game.
35:16Yeah, if you have a shutdown corner in Christian Gonzalez, can you park him on Brock Bowers all day?
35:22That's easier said than done. Especially if all of a sudden, you know, Clint Kubiak says, okay, in this game, Brock Bowers
35:29is going to be an inline tight end. Because he can do that stuff, too.
35:33You're right. Like two inline guys. And that makes it almost impossible then without just completely destroying your defensive rules to have
35:40a guy like Christian Gonzalez on that player. So a couple other interesting notes about Brock Bowers before we move on here.
35:47He's run an in route, like a dig route, on 19% of his route so far.
35:52This is, by the way, not going to help my argument that he's a tight end and not a wide receiver.
35:59So I'm going to do it anyways, though, because, you know, I'm a man of the people.
36:0419% in route rate so far. That is compared to guys who have actually been on the football field a lot.
36:10You know, Terrence Ferguson, 45 routes, 13% in route rate.
36:14Colson Loveland, 13%. George Kittle, about 13%. Michael Mayer, by the way, is at 12.6%.
36:18So there are some similarities there. But you look at the average depth of route.
36:23We talked about this stat last week. The Dawson Knox, the second tight end for the Buffalo Bills, 57 routes.
36:29So a little bit of a small sample size.
36:32He leads the NFL there. Then it's Harold Fannin, 9.9.
36:35According to fantasy points data, Jake Ferguson, 9.4. Mike Gusecki, who's an actual fake tight end at 9.0.
36:41And then it's Brock Bowers at 8.5. So he is running some real deal downfield routes.
36:46It's because he's such a unicorn that they are able to pull this off.
36:50But yeah, the Gentry receiving usage. I wanted to just come back to that one before we move on here, Ray.
36:57What do you think Gentry looks like to you?
36:59To me, he still looks like he's just not all the way back back from that ankle injury just yet.
37:06But his receiving usage is saving him. Yeah, he's not all the way back.
37:10I thought he had some really good runs last Sunday.
37:13That outcut where he got down the field for, I don't know how many yards it was, 20-something yards.
37:19It felt like an eternity because he's had no space.
37:22But no, he doesn't look 100%. But he's there for the dump-offs for Kirk Cousins.
37:27They're using him a little bit down the field in his receiving usage.
37:31And when I'm looking at the Trinity for running backs and which ones are the best right now, he's got the second
37:38highest usage score of all running backs in the NFL right now.
37:42So he does not look 100%. No rushing touchdowns for Gentry this year, which is a little disappointing.
37:47But if you want to look at this glass half full, I mean, he's still getting a ton of touches.
37:54He's the primary receiving back. So if he can get healthy, watch out down the stretch for Las Vegas.
37:59Can we show that Ted Wynn tweet one more time here?
38:03Raiders giving Mike Washington more carries and using Gentry as a passing down back.
38:07Gentry just doesn't look healthy, so this approach makes sense.
38:10Washington is not good in passing situations. It's a great point by Ted.
38:14This is why I kind of said that to me, it's Mike Washington is the poor man's Kenneth Walker in this situation if we're doing the Seattle backfield.
38:23And Ashton Gentry is kind of the souped-up Zach Charbonnet.
38:26You know, he's the useful, like, pass blocker, dump-off receiver right now.
38:30But he's actually been getting some real explosive stuff in the past game, which is, I suppose, a little more Kenneth Walker-esque there.
38:37But this is going to dovetail us right into my second data point.
38:41I looked at team rushing efficiency versus fantasy production for running backs through their first four weeks to try to kind of identify some outliers here.
38:49So this is on running back runs only. For rushing efficiency, I combined their rank and explosive run percentage, EPA per rush,
38:56and success rate to look at these. And some interesting outliers emerge in terms of guys that are playing in these environments
39:03that have been pretty efficient from a rush perspective, but not as much from the fantasy standpoint.
39:09The biggest outlier is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who from – they have a 17-point gap.
39:13They're 10th in rushing efficiency, but 19th in overall the average of their rushing efficiency ranks.
39:18So, excuse me, their fantasy point totals. They're 27th, excuse me, the correct number there.
39:2327th in total running back fantasy points, but they're 10th in terms of rushing efficiency here.
39:28So, Ray, we've talked about this last week. Jalen Warren, as long as he continues to be the feature back there, I
39:35think is still an undervalued fantasy asset. Yeah, and can we just talk ball right now?
39:40He looked good. I'm looking at him run. Jalen Warren versus Cleveland, he looked really good.
39:45If he had not hit that landmine the week before, he had had a long touchdown to add to this total.
39:51And they don't really have – with Rico Dattel being out, that absolutely helps him.
39:56There were a couple of plays inside of that game, Matt, that I'm watching.
40:00Aaron Rodgers, there was a play where there was pressure barreling down on him.
40:05And Warren steps up there and gives him time to throw the ball.
40:09It wasn't complete down the field, but that level of confidence and trust that he can – he will put his nose
40:16in there to attack one of those blitzing linebackers, how good he's been on the ground.
40:21We just need – we just need him to get in the end zone.
40:25But I am – he is one of the ones where you don't – you don't really like Pittsburgh's offense.
40:31It's not fun. It's not sexy. But this should be a locked and loaded RB on your roster, whether you're putting him
40:38in your RB2 spot, you're putting him in your flex spot.
40:42Jalen Warren is absolutely in play every single week.
40:44And I do want to give a little credit to Aaron Rodgers who looked good the past two weeks.
40:50When you look at his numbers the past two weeks versus Cleveland and Cincinnati, you're like, okay, this is passable right here.
40:57So Jalen Warren definitely – and you see right here, 97%.
41:01They bring Travis Homer in last week for like two carries just to give him a break.
41:06But it's all Jalen Warren. Like you can't ask for anything more.
41:10I like this call out and bringing this up because he's been really good on the field.
41:15Yeah, he's my 10th ranked running back going into week five.
41:19As long as there's no Rico Dowdle, we'll see when Dowdle comes back.
41:23Mike McCarthy said continue to be a committee approach for as long as we can ride this ride.
41:28And then maybe it's a sell-high situation with Warren.
41:31But the rushing environment has been good. Again, from an efficiency standpoint in the average of the rankings, they're 10th, whereas they're
41:3827th in the total points for running backs right now.
41:41So this week against the Colts, it's a good week for him to get involved as a receiver, especially because when the
41:48Colts play all that man coverage, they leave a linebacker on Jalen Warren.
41:52I could see him having some big plays as a receiver.
41:55A couple other ones to call out here too where from a fantasy point perspective, there's a pretty decent gap between them
42:02and where they rank from an efficiency standpoint. Again, if we can show the graph here, like the Titans are in that
42:09quadrant, but I mean they're 17th in rushing efficiency.
42:12Are you really that excited there? See, if that's a situation, if it can consolidate to one guy like it has in
42:19Pittsburgh, maybe then it could be interesting. But when it's split two ways between Pollard and Spears and they get Singleton involved
42:26there now and again, that's going to be a pass.
42:29The Packers, they've started to split that up. So you need that to consolidate.
42:3332nd in fantasy points, 22nd in efficiency. Big whoop there.
42:36The Broncos actually have a pretty decent gap. I know we're talking to Broncos back in one of your sections on the other side of the break.
42:45The Eagles are kind of interesting because they're 19th in running back rush efficiency, but is that going to be the Will Shipley thing?
42:52Two other positive call outs. Rams, Bills, great environments.
42:55Actually, their fantasy points are even lagging a little bit behind that.
42:59Continue to stash the backups on those teams. Blake Corham is a pure backup to Kyron Williams, but continue to stash him,
43:06even maybe as a fill-in trade type candidate. And then maybe some, Basial Tootin, by the way, another guy.
43:12The Jags are really high here from a rush efficiency perspective and from a point standpoint.
43:17But again, fourth in efficiency, seventh in points. There's still more to go for Basial Tootin.
43:22And then real quickly on the other end, just some running backs who are maybe on the negative side.
43:28Cam Scott with the Giants. Chase Brown with the Bengals.
43:31Not a lot of points. Not a lot of efficiency.
43:34And then Ashton Gentry as well. We just talked about him.
43:37But any concern for some of those guys down there?
43:40Yeah, and I kind of don't get this Scadaboo thing because one of his calling cards coming out of college was how
43:47good, I believe, in his class he was the most efficient receiving running back in his class.
43:53It wasn't Ashton Gentry. I'll tell you that right now.
43:56Coming out of Boise State, it was Cam Scadaboo.
43:59And the fact that they don't use him in the receiving game, I don't know if that's a Winston thing.
44:05I don't know if it's a Matt Nagy offensive thing.
44:08But that's a little disappointing because if we could depend on Cam to get his, let's just be conservative.
44:1414 to 16 touches a game. And then you could pencil in.
44:18And I'm not even going crazy, Matt. Five, six targets for Scadaboo.
44:21Like get him more involved in the receiving game.
44:24I think we'd all feel a lot better about Cam Scadaboo.
44:28So that's a little disappointing there. Chase Brown, I mean, the receiving is really saving him.
44:33He has not been good on the ground as a rusher.
44:36And I do want to just call out because I still don't think the market has really arrived on Tootin because of
44:43some, especially last week, had a couple of plays called back.
44:46But if I could get him, if I could move David Montgomery, a Travion Henderson, like we can go on and on to get him.
44:54Like this is your quintessential just end of season league winning type running back because all the other stuff is there.
45:01The defense is good. The offense is good. We're not worried about anybody else.
45:05Like I want Tootin. I want Basil Tootin, Matt.
45:08Yeah, it's a great call out. I'm with you there.
45:11It's only going to get better for him. The fact that the defense is so good, the fact that he's consolidating the work.
45:18That's what we love to see. Yeah, for Scadaboo, they're 32nd in rushing efficiency so far.
45:23Like they have not been a good run game as the New York Giants.
45:28And Jameis Winston is not providing any sort of resistance there as well in the past game.
45:33So we'll see how that goes. Real quick, just on Chase Brown.
45:37The Bengals, they've given up on their little offseason project of like, oh, hey, we're going to be more of a run team.
45:44We're going to get under center. They're first and pass rate over expected.
45:48They're dead last and under center. So it's going to have to be the receiving.
45:53It's going to have to be that way for Chase Brown.
45:56Run out of the gun. Figure it out. We'll see how it goes for Chase Brown.
46:01But definitely that does take away some of the upside case for a player who went in the second round in most fantasy drafts.
46:08Okay, we're going to take a quick break. We're going to talk about one of those running backs I mentioned for the Denver Broncos.
46:16We'll get into that right after this. All right, we're back.
46:19Ray, I mentioned the Denver Broncos on the other side here in terms of there's a decent gap between their fantasy points and their rushing efficiency.
46:28Not that they've been a good running team. However, they have been scoring some points because a certain running back of theirs
46:34has been pretty involved in a different phase. That's the guy you're going to talk about for your third data point.
46:41Yeah, if I were going to tell you that this running back was only going to have 12 carries through the first
46:48four games, you'd be like, no, thank you. But RJ Harvey, we're right back to the running back receiving cheat code.
46:54He is the NFL's most frequently targeted route runner, and he's only got 12 carries.
46:5921 targets on 50 routes, 42%. Highest amongst 250 qualified NFL pass catchers, minimum 26 routes.
47:04Zay Flowers is next at 40%. 10 targets last week on 19 routes.
47:08It's about 53% more than half of his routes.
47:11Ended with a ball thrown his way, and he got you 10 targets, 68 yards.
47:16Only seven carries for 25 yards, but still 19.3 PPR points without a touchdown.
47:20Bo Nix, 33% of his week four, 33% week four check down rate, led all qualifying quarterbacks.
47:25His full season rate, 19%, which is third highest in the NFL.
47:29And on top of that, Bo Nix's scramble rate is down this year to around 2%.
47:34The past two seasons, he was hovering around 7%.
47:37Denver leads the NFL in RB target share at 28%, and RB targets with 35.
47:42We saw that rise to about 37% in week four.
47:45So again, kind of piggybacking on Kyron Williams last week.
47:48Like, R.J. Harvey, 12 damn rush attempts, not much.
47:51He's not going to give you anything on the ground.
47:54But this is, and what I want from you, Matt, I know you'll comment on Harvey.
47:59Like, I think this is what's hurting some of the pass catchers as well, is the fact that so much of Denver's offense is going to R.J.
48:07Harvey instead of those targets flowing to a Waddle, to a Cortland Sutton, to a Pat Bryant.
48:13Like, you're really hoping that, you know, Harvey's not getting it, but the fact that he is drawing so much opportunity on a per-route basis.
48:20I track usage. I track Trinity. Right now, when you're looking at running backs across the league, there are only a handful better than him.
48:28It's Gibbs, it's Kyron Williams, it's Chase Brown, and it's R.J.
48:32Harvey while only having his dead last in air yards.
48:35Negative 12.3% air yard share, but it doesn't matter because he's just getting so much opportunity.
48:40Yeah. Man, it's disgusting football going on in Denver.
48:43You're completely right about that this is why these pass catchers aren't popping off right now.
48:48And it's been all over the timeline. People have been noticing this too.
48:52I think some Broncos fans and people who cover the team posting clips of these concepts are coming open.
48:58You know, they're running a ton of dagger, what's supposed to be these big in-cuts over the middle of the field where you clear it out.
49:06One guy clears it out and one guy runs an in-cut under it.
49:10And Bo Nix is not throwing it, just taking the check down.
49:13It's crazy stuff. This stat from Kyle Posey. Bo Nix had 42 attempts in, he said today, this was the game week four.
49:21His average up to target was 5.3, three yards worse than the NFL average.
49:25He was 5 of 13 against the Blitz for 32 yards, 2 for 10 on passes beyond 10 air yards.
49:31So obviously one of those was a waddle drop, but for the most part, it's just not even trying to push it
49:38down the field, not pushing it over the middle.
49:41And the lack of scrambling too, I think maybe it's concerning that he's had all these ankle injuries over the course of his career.
49:48That's a lot of surgeries there. That's definitely an issue at this point.
49:53So now RJ Harvey could be the fantasy beneficiary of that, and that has definitely happened so far with all the check downs, the targets.
50:00Ray, do you think there's any rushing upside here coming though for Harvey?
50:04Because like J.K. Dobbins at this point, that's not happening.
50:08If he could consolidate any of that work as a rusher, there's a path for him to be a Jalen Warren type.
50:14I just don't know if Harvey has the goods as a rusher.
50:18What do you think? Yeah, I want to say sure, Matt.
50:22I do. I want to say sure, but I think we've seen exactly how Sean Payton wants to deploy him.
50:28And if you go back to the way that he's used running backs in the past, like he's got a guy that's
50:35going to run the ball, and he's got one that's going to catch the ball.
50:39And I think what ends up happening is once Jonah Coleman is back, like that's him and J.K.
50:45Dobbins are going to split between the 20s rush attempts and running it up the A-gap.
50:50Harvey will get a few, but it's been pretty clear through a month through the season how they want to deploy Harvey.
50:57And it is through the air. It's Bo Nix not scrambling.
51:00It's checking the ball down. Now you've got a defense who's going to be down both their starting corners in Riley Moss and Patrick Sertan.
51:08So you're hoping that Nix can volume his way, but negative 12% air yard share for R.J.
51:13Harvey. It's all behind the line of scrimmage. Like we talk so much about the PPR scam and those slot receivers getting
51:20– now it's like the PPR running back scam because – Oh, yeah.
51:24You're seeing it happen now. And I want to say yes, but the logical takeaway is R.J.
51:30Harvey, this is his role. He is going to be a receiving running back who gets a few touches out of the backfield.
51:37And you're hoping that you can just survive and live off of that because he's not even scoring touchdowns right now.
51:43Yeah, they play the Chargers this week due to the Denver Broncos.
51:47They are eighth in terms of too high percentage.
51:50They'll give you some stuff when you play cover one, but for a single high safety.
51:55So that middle of the field, if you're going to do too high, that middle of the field is going to be open.
52:02Bo Nix, throw the passes. Let's see it. Okay?
52:05Because, yeah, this R.J. Harvey stuff, it's great, but it's not leading to a good offense.
52:10That is for sure. So interested to see if there's anything more there for Harvey to get.
52:15I'll tell you where there is going to be a lot of passing, Ray Garvin, theoretically.
52:20That is the Detroit Lions traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.
52:24This looks like a pure print fest for both of these passing games.
52:28The Lions allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season, and they rank ninth in pass rate over expected.
52:35The Cardinals, meanwhile, have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and they, as an offense, rank 12th in pass rate over expected.
52:43So two teams that want to throw the ball, two defenses that are more than happy to let you throw all over them.
52:50Probably not more than happy about it, but they're certainly not doing anything to stop you on the other side here.
52:56So I think we know, okay, Lions, St. Brown, of course, probably another good week to chase a Jamison Williams ceiling.
53:03Sam Laporta, Jared Goff, yes, yes, yes, those guys are in your line.
53:07Maybe even Isaac Tesla can get a couple of nice plays down the football field.
53:12We'll see. On the Cardinals side of it, Michael Wilson, 30 targets over the last two weeks combined.
53:17He has been eating from a volume standpoint. Trey McBride, the Lions allow the most fantasy points to tight ends so far this year.
53:25Obviously, Trey McBride is going to be awesome. If Jacoby Brissett has time, because one thing to notice at Paris Johnson, biceps
53:32tear, he's out for the rest of the season.
53:34That's certainly not good for this offense. That's a big variable here.
53:38But if he has time, he could be a viable quarterback streamer.
53:42So I ask you all this, Ray Garvin, the name I haven't mentioned yet.
53:46Do you have the fortitude, the wherewithal to start Marvin Harrison Jr.
53:50as a wide receiver three, rank him as a wide receiver three against a Lions team that they have the 10th most
53:57in terms of single high percentage, according to fantasy points data.
54:00Maybe there's a one or two shot plays. We have seen when it's a single high look.
54:06Jacoby Brissett, maybe it's not always a good ball, but he will at least give Marv a chance.
54:11Do you have the fortitude to rank Marvin Harrison Jr.
54:14as a wide receiver three this week? The answer is no, I do not.
54:19I do not. I just flat out, I don't.
54:22At the start of the game last week, it felt like, okay.
54:25I think it was their first series. He scored their first touchdown, right?
54:29He opened the game with the touchdown, and you're like, okay, Marvy.
54:33I mean, he hits everybody with the, shh, be quiet, I hear you talking.
54:38And you know what? That's what happened for him the rest of the game was, shh, be quiet because you're not involved.
54:44No. Even against this Lions team, I'm looking at this usage right now.
54:48Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Trinity score, 4.64, below league average at this point of 5.13.
54:53Team target share, 8.1%, below league average of 12.2 for the wide receiver position.
54:57Area yard share is fine. League average, 18.3. He's at 21.6.
55:01He is still just, I don't get it. I don't understand.
55:04I don't know why, but he is just not a part of this offense.
55:08Like, it should, if there were going to be a week where you're like, this is my last, my last ride on the Metro Card Marv Express.
55:17This is it. It would be this week. Like, this would be the week, but I can, if we said, if we
55:24had the time, Matt, I could name 36 receivers I'd rather start over Marvin Harrison Jr.
55:29I, 1,000% could name 36 of them that I'd rather start over Marv.
55:33So, I like this for McBride. I love it for Michael Wilson.
55:37I like it for Jeremiah Love. I'm just done.
55:39I'm just done on this experience and the comments that continue to come out.
55:44Well, Michael Wilson got paid a lot. He's not arguing about his two targets, his two receptions.
55:49And we've got Trey McBride. I just... Game 30 right after.
55:53Yeah. Yeah. I want to, Matt, but I just, I can't make sense of it.
55:57And I don't know if you can. I don't know if you've seen anything from a charting perspective.
56:03I just look at the usage. But the usage says find somebody else.
56:07I've got 30, at least 34 receivers ahead of Marvin Harrison, which is, that's less than the two weeks prior.
56:13You know? It was about 40 or so. So, you know, I think what you're, to your point there, just never going
56:20to be a consistent guy in this offense with the way he's being used as that vertical X receiver.
56:26He had two catchable targets all day. I mean, the one that, um, the one that Jacoby Reset threw up to him,
56:33like deep downfield where he threw an interception, complete lollipop.
56:36And, you know, Jacoby Reset's definitely turning down some open throws to Marv, but I also think he's gotten off to the
56:43slowest start of his career from an individual perspective as Marvin Harrison.
56:47But if there was ever going to be a week, this is the week.
56:51So, um, look, there are buys this week, two teams on buy.
56:55I don't know if anybody was starting Xavier Worthy, but you were starting Rasheed Rice, his chiefs receiver, he's on the buy this week.
57:02Tadaro McMillan's on the buy this week. Jalen Coker's on the buy this week.
57:07I've heard of worse ideas than chasing another touchdown for Marvin Harrison Jr.
57:11I'll just leave it at that. But either way, definitely a big time fantasy performance coming for a lot of guys, maybe
57:17not Marv, but a lot of guys in this matchup, a lot of passing coming here for this particular game.
57:24Okay, Ray, let's get to some young wide receivers who maybe aren't disappointing right now.
57:28Boston, these two rookies own the NFL's biggest shares of downfield opportunity.
57:32Week four, Carnell Tate, a whopping, depending on the data service you look at, 72 to 73%, 70 plus percent of Tennessee's air yards.
57:40Unreal. Denzel Boston, 63% of Cleveland's air yards. First and second amongst qualifying wide receivers.
57:44CeeDee Lamb was third with 58.7%. Carnell Tate, he owns 52.4% of Tennessee's air yards this season.
57:50And Denzel Boston, 51% of Cleveland's ranking second and third amongst qualifying wide receivers in the entire NFL in week four.
57:56Now, we're not looking at Cleveland or Tennessee saying these are great offensive environments because we know that they're not.
58:02But if you're going to get that much downfield work, if you're going to command, Matt, 70% is absurd.
58:08Like, I had to look this up a couple of times because, oh, is this right?
58:13Like, is something wrong here? This is ridiculous. If you're going to get 50 plus percent of your team's air yards, it
58:20doesn't matter if it's Carnell Tate, Deshaun Watson, whomever throwing the ball, you're probably in a good position to get some isolated one-on-one looks.
58:28And as long as you can convert and we think these are good receivers, you're going to score some points.
58:34So I'll just say I like the direction that these two rookies are going in.
58:39Casey Concepcion is still really good. Wondell Robinson is fine.
58:42But I just wanted to highlight this because in a class of disappointing rookies, these two are kind of shining a little
58:49bit despite the situations and the cards they've been dealt with their quarterbacks.
58:53Yeah, no question. These two guys have looked good.
58:56Boston's put it in the box score. Tate finally had his big game last week.
59:00Could have been even bigger. He dropped at least one pass.
59:04Cam Ward still, it's not a good watch with the Titans offense.
59:07Okay, there is that. But Carnell Tate has definitely looked really good to me.
59:12I've charted a couple of his games here. He wins on these breaking routes, as we're showing here on the screen.
59:18Some corners, some in cuts, some post routes, some crossers.
59:22He's looked nice. He's looked the part so far.
59:24Just overall efficiency has been targeted on 26% of his routes.
59:28He's averaging 2.16 yards per route run in a gross offense.
59:31We'll take it. Like I said, he's dropped about three or so passes, depending on how you want to chart it over the course of the season.
59:40So he hasn't even had a touchdown yet. There's more coming for Carnell Tate.
59:44Now, I do wish he wasn't playing the Houston Texans this week, because if you're thinking about the way that you're going
59:51to attack this Texans defense, you're going to get them on the move.
59:55You're going to get their linebackers in coverage. The safety is the whole deal.
59:59So to that point, though, Calvin Ridley and Alec Iomannor have kind of been more of the sacrificial exes than Carnell Tate.
60:06In the games I've charted for Tate, he's been off the ball on 38% of his snaps.
60:12You know, they'll get him in motion. They'll get him free releases.
60:15So hopefully they can do a little bit of what CeeDee Lamb got for the Dallas Cowboys.
60:21And hopefully it's not OK. This is how we spam Wanda Robinson this week.
60:25But that always makes me nervous with the Tennessee Titans coaching staff, because I don't think a lot of good stuff's going on from a scheme perspective there.
60:34No, and that's the thing. The scheme is not great.
60:37I don't think that the overall offense is great.
60:40And I agree with you. I don't believe Cam Ward has been good either.
60:44But when you just look at the usage inside of this offense, it's one of the things that I track.
60:50The usage is great for Carnell Tate. So it's one of those things he feels like what Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave
60:57and Drake London were for the first couple of years of their career, where the counting numbers were good.
61:03The usage was good, but the production was lagging because of the quarterback play.
61:07And then once they figured that out, now you're talking about Olave and London and Garrett Wilson being some of those top receivers in the NFL.
61:16So just following the usage, his target volume has increased every week of the season.
61:20And when you track that and follow it enough, like that, you just, that happens, right?
61:25If you keep getting thrown the ball nine, 10 times a game, you'll have a week or two where you end up producing.
61:32So just really wanted to shout out both Denzel Boston and Carnell Tate, who by far, when you're looking at the usage
61:39for rookie receivers, the best two in the class and some of the underlying metrics, including the area yard share, not just
61:46best in the class, best in the NFL. So would you start Carnell Tate or one of the Bears guys, Odunze, Luther Burden in week five?
61:54It's a tough one, right? I'm looking at my rankings right now.
61:58Yeah, I like Rome. I think I'm still a big Rome guy.
62:02I'm probably going with the better situation with Rome and Burden or Odunze.
62:06Yeah, Burden and Odunze. I'd start Carnell Tate over Marv in a heartbeat.
62:10I'll tell you that. Him and Denzel Boston. Him and Denzel are starting over Marv.
62:15Oh, yeah, for sure. I actually have Boston ranked higher than both of all those guys this week because, you know, Odunze
62:22had the game last week over 90 yards, one of his best games in a while against that jet defense that you can get on the outside.
62:30And a lot of them is like quick out routes in routes from the boundary.
62:35And that's the routes that Denzel Boston has been running really well at this point.
62:39I think Boston looks great. Could be a good Casey Concepcion game.
62:43He's played well, but like he's running a lot of the routes in the intermediate middle of the field where Boston's been the boundary guy.
62:51And that's just where Watson is seeing it better at this point.
62:55So I think that connection, that chemistry is worth chasing here this week.
62:59So I actually like both of those guys, Boston and Tate and as wide receiver starters this week.
63:04I just think Carnell Tate kind of a wide receiver three and then Boston, I think is a certified wide receiver two this week.
63:12The guy's a baller, man. He's a really, really good player.
63:15No question about that. Okay. Speaking of wide receiver efficiency, that is for my fourth data point here.
63:21Pull up the chart on this one. I posted it on Twitter today.
63:25Wide receivers who have gained a first down on more than 11% of their yards.
63:30I assume 11% of their routes so far this season among guys who've run a route on over 50% of their team drop back.
63:37So they've been out there for more than 50% of the routes.
63:41These are the guys. JSN, CD lamb, Mike Evans, Drake, London, T Higgins, Chris Olave, DJ Moore, Debo Samuel, Lad McConkie, Garrett
63:48Wilson, Keon Coleman, Kalief Raymond, Jacoby Myers. I'll just give you some quick takes here.
63:52JSN, CD lamb. They're off to elite starts. They're two of the best receivers in the NFL.
63:58London and Olave have been, I think, all pro worthy.
64:01Those guys have been just fantastic this season. Please stay healthy.
64:04Mike Evans, T Higgins, right? When these guys are out there, we know they're really good.
64:09They can be metronomes of their offense. DJ Moore and Lad McConkie have been exactly what their new offenses have needed, but
64:16they have only run a route on 52 and 59% of the drop backs respectively.
64:21That's just been a bummer. The efficiency has been there for both those guys.
64:25They've made plays when available. They're just not available.
64:28And then Keon Coleman, Kalief Raymond, Jacoby Myers, and Debo Samuel have all been really quality role players so far.
64:34So these are the guys who have been the most efficient with their opportunities while being on the field for at least 50% of the routes.
64:42Anybody grab you here from this list, Ray? Am I allowed to say Keon Coleman?
64:47I'm just the old eye test. The old eye test.
64:50He looked as good as I've ever seen him play last week.
64:54And I get it. That's a one-week sample size where nobody started him.
64:58Nobody in the world started him. But DJ Moore, banged up, shoulder injury, probably play like he always does.
65:04But this is a guy where, you know, if you're banking on that Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense, like I am intrigued by Keon Coleman.
65:12I'm not ready to proclaim him to be some next level breakout star.
65:16But just watching him play football last week, he played really good.
65:20And I want to give him his credit for playing really good last week.
65:24The usage when I'm looking at Trinity, very good for Keon Coleman last week.
65:29So, you know, obviously JSN and those guys. But yeah, I'm 7.26 above league average usage.
65:34Everything. Air yard share, 35%. Target share, 22.6%. 33.2% of the overall offensive production for the Buffalo Bills last week.
65:40That was better than Chris Olave, Malik Neighbors, Amon Ross St.
65:43Brown in a one-week sample size, DK Metcalf, Romo Dunze.
65:47So, I like to see him on this list, right?
65:50I like seeing him on this list. And it's something that I don't know if I have the stones to start him this week.
65:57But he's definitely, I'm watching. I'm noticing Keon Coleman and want to see him continue to push forward.
66:03Yeah, I talked about this with Boone yesterday. The usage for Keon from a pre-snap deployment perspective is different.
66:09He is no longer out there as the X receiver on every single snap.
66:13And this is what he needed. This is what he needed to be a good player.
66:18He needed to be moved around. He's off the ball more.
66:22He's even used kind of tight to the core at times.
66:25You know, Brock Bowers-ish. Can we say he's getting some Brock Bowers usage?
66:29Is Keon Coleman. That's exactly what we wanted to see.
66:32He shouldn't have just been this vertical X receiver.
66:35However, his route tree has really changed here. His go-route percentage went from 28% in year one, 21% in year two.
66:42It's down to 14% so far this year. He's running a lot more of the out routes, which I think he has looked good on.
66:49He had a really good play on an out or a corner route against the Patriots this past week.
66:55And it's showing up in the efficiency data. I mentioned 11% first downs per route.
67:00He was at 6.8% and 8.3% in his first two years.
67:031.3 yards per route in 2025. He's at 2.4 so far this season.
67:07So definitely, definitely a change for Keon. And that makes him somebody we consider, we can consider if DJ Moore misses this week.
67:15Okay, I mentioned that Ladd McConkie has kind of been what he was supposed to be when he's been on the field.
67:22He hasn't been on the field yet, which is a huge bummer for the Chargers.
67:26But Ray, for your fifth and final data point, you got a Chargers note for us as well.
67:32Yeah, this is, let me just say that the Chargers are doubling down on a bad rushing attack.
67:37Okay? They run 52% of neutral scripted plays, sixth highest, despite ranking 28th in rushing EPA per play.
67:43Their preferred approach produces bottom five efficiency. They pass almost nine percentage points less often than expected.
67:48The NFL's second most run-heavy tendency after adjusting for game situations, only Atlanta is lower.
67:53That tendency intensified. Negative 7.1 pass rate over expected in weeks one through three became negative 13.1 in week four, a further six-point percentage shift towards the run.
68:02Check this out, Matt. They take 35.3 seconds between neutral situation snaps.
68:06The league's fifth slowest pace. So you're talking about infrequent passing is compounded by slow tempo.
68:11The complete offense ranks 31st in EPA per play, negative 0.123.
68:14Passing efficiency is also poor, 24th in the NFL.
68:17So you're talking about a team that's slow. They can't run.
68:20But you know what? We'll just keep doing it.
68:23It doesn't matter. I am the offensive genius that is Mike McDaniel.
68:27And it doesn't matter. We'll keep running it. It would be okay if they gave it all to Omarion Hampton.
68:33But I'm almost positive the head coach came out this week and said, it's best for our team to use three running backs.
68:40We talk about the Eagles and how disappointing that offense has been.
68:44We're going to talk about it all year. I can't tell you how this one is probably the most disappointing of all.
68:51The Chargers. And they just keep running and running and running despite the fact that they can't run.
68:56They can't run. And they just keep doing it every single week.
69:00I don't get it. I don't get it, Matt.
69:03Yeah. The three running backs split just reeks of, I don't know, got to try something else.
69:08Throw something at the wall. See what sticks. You know?
69:11And maybe it is Keaton Mitchell. I don't know.
69:14Maybe he'll give them a spark. But they need something.
69:17And you know who else doesn't seem to know?
69:20Jim Harbaugh does not seem to know. Have you seen these, like the press conferences with Harbaugh at this point?
69:26He's fighting with, not even fighting, just talking to the reporter.
69:30Like that sounds more like an insult than a question.
69:33When asked about Justin Herbert and the hits he's been taking, his just got that thousand yard stare at the press conferences.
69:40I've been talking about it. Like he doesn't have any answers.
69:43This whole coaching staff just looks like they're pre-fired.
69:46It's completely over. It looks like it doesn't. It's just a matter of, yeah.
69:51Yeah. Remember coming into week one when there was the headline, I think it was Ian Rapport had this, that Mike McDaniel
69:57is now going to be able to really fully open.
70:01Like he's going to be able to run concepts he never could have dreamed of because Justin Herbert is his quarterback now.
70:07Oh, they're going to change Herbert's footwork. Where is any of that?
70:11Where is any of that? All I'm thinking about is like, Hey, Mike, maybe Justin Herbert should have been gallivanting all over
70:18Europe with his, with his girlfriend and if it's fiance now in the off season, maybe should have been a practice.
70:25Jim Harbaugh. I was like, no big deal. Herbert's a warrior.
70:28He's a human, he's a human cyborg warrior. So it's like, Oh my God, enough, like enough with the platitudes.
70:34Show me something on the field. We got nothing with this team.
70:38Yeah. Fantasy takeaway. Like, yeah. What Q, who was QJ compared to?
70:42Who did, who did Mike McDaniel say QJ reminded his, Julio Jones under his, remember when his drive step was going to F up the league.
70:50It's like all of the, all of the headlines are so brutal.
70:54Just. I say all this to say, and I think that the, the tweet was on the screen, the routes and the, the snap percentage.
71:01It's a nightmare. Like if you've got Hampton, you're, he fell in, he got in the end zone this week.
71:08So you're happy about that. This is concerning. I don't know what the recommended advice is.
71:13Joe alt was banged up in the game. I don't know if he's going to miss time now.
71:18It's just not good for anybody. It's not good for lad.
71:22It's not good for Hampton. It's not good for Herbert.
71:25Yeah. Yeah. There's a reason they're in the coping corner on our panic meter.
71:29I don't know for the column. Do you have a coping corner?
71:33Cause I know you write the panic meter. I talked about, yeah, I put, I put, I didn't put, I put him total panic.
71:41So I just, I'm saving the coping corner. Cause I know y'all did it, but I put them in total panic for Justin Herbert in this offense.
71:49And that, that piece came out earlier today. So I'm right in line with you all.
71:54And it's just disappointing. Again, Hampton was drafted high.
71:57Herbert was drafted high. Lad McConkie there. You wanted him to be your locked and loaded wide receiver too, with wide receiver one type upside.
72:05And it has nothing to do with the skillset of lad.
72:08It just looking at they're slow. They want to keep slamming the ball up the middle.
72:13It's just, it's tough all the way around for, for the chargers as an offensive unit.
72:18Tough. A few things here. One, I guess I just outed myself for not reading again in 2026.
72:24When I asked you if, you know, you have the coping corner in the column and you're like, Hey, yeah, it's a, it's coming here.
72:31So, you know, that's on me. It's okay. It came out early.
72:35It's my bad. Came out earlier today. It came out early.
72:39Okay. Yeah. I've been busy. I'm going to get, I'm going to read it.
72:43I'm going to read it later. Cause I am reading again in 2026.
72:47I'm reading some books. Okay. I'm reading some articles.
72:50You know, it's, it is what it is. Not just reading tweets.
72:54That's for sure. One last thing. I usually hate the if man meme.
72:58We showed that meme earlier. The, the, the, the if man thing, this is the first year it's, it's really applicable for Justin Herbert.
73:05Like maybe if he had been at practice in the off season, and maybe if Mike McDaniel, you know, and Jim Harbaugh
73:12had some answers, maybe we could have had something if it had all happened for the chargers.
73:17This is the first year we can do the if man thing with Justin Herbert.
73:22Okay, here we are. All right. Let me give you a one last quick one before we have to go to break
73:29and talk through, uh, our league on the other side of the break here.
73:33Uh, Brent strange. We might have a quiet little breakout for Brenton strange here as a fantasy tight end.
73:39His route participation is kicked up every single week.
73:4264%, 81%, 84%, 85%. He had five targets in weeks one and two combined 13 each of the last two weeks.
73:49Obviously he ripped up the Bengals defense cause they can't cover anybody up the spine.
73:53You know, who else has been having issues doing that?
73:56The Philadelphia Eagles issues at line. Linebacker, Jihad Campbell, not doing a lot on the field.
74:01You know, you can search on social media to see what he's been up to actually.
74:06Okay. So that's what, that's what Jihad Campbell's up to.
74:10Uh, he's not been covering anybody up the spine.
74:12Andrew McCuba, not a great season so far for him.
74:16Uh, you got Cooper, Degene, not playing so great as the nickel corner.
74:20They've had issues up the spine. Brent strange. I think if you're in desperate, a tight end, you're, you're, you're hurting a little bit.
74:27He's running around on 85% of the dropbacks. He is absolutely out there.
74:31Uh, and we've got him ranked outside the top 20 in consensus rankings on fantasy pros.
74:36I saw today. Uh, I, I moved Brent strange up closer to like tight end 14.
74:41So if you've been hurting at the position, you drafted Kyle pits and you're taking the L on that one.
74:47You're in the coping corner. Cause of Kyle pits.
74:50I think Brenton Strange is a fantasy starter this week.
74:53Yeah, this one is, I'm glad you pulled this one because I don't think most people would, would immediately sort of recognize this.
75:01You see the week. Ah, okay. Brent strange had a big game, but I'm looking at the overall team usage for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
75:08Number one in usage is Parker Washington, uh, right around 13 points per game, 6.2 Trinity score, but number two in Jacksonville, it's not a running back.
75:16It's not BTJ. It's not Jacoby Myers. It's Brent and strange 6.0 score, which is above league average.
75:22Significantly air yard share, 16.8% team target share around 18%, 10 and a half percent of the overall offensive production.
75:28He's second on the team in usage. So yeah, I mean, I don't know why people are so low, on them because
75:35outside of Parker Washington, like this is their, their next highest prioritized weapon to get the ball to in the receiving game.
75:42So really good pull here, Matt Harmon. And I am going to, as the hashtag says, trust the Trinity on this one.
75:49And I'm going to move Brent and strange up my rankings for the week against Philadelphia.
75:54This is a good pool right here. 27% rostered in Yahoo league.
75:58So waivers run tonight. Maybe go check out some Brent and strange.
76:01If you're hurting at the tight end position. Yeah, man, good player.
76:05I think they gave him a contract extension in the off season.
76:09They like him. This is an offense where, Hey, if you're just hurting for tight ends, look for a good offense.
76:16That's going against a decent matchup here. The funnel to the middle of the field.
76:20That is pretty much been the Philadelphia Eagles so far.
76:23So you could definitely do worse than some Brent and strange.
76:27Okay. Let's take our final break of the show.
76:30We come back. We're talking through the Yahoo expert league.
76:33We'll get into that. All right, we're back and it is time.
76:36Welcome to the Yahoo fantasy expert league recap. Are we still calling it an expert league?
76:41It's hard to say because I am no longer.
76:44Yes. I'm no longer undefeated. I lost this week.
76:47And you know what? I knew I was going to lose this week because I was talking way too much trash on the show.
76:55I was having way too much fun. I had dinner with my buddy, drew him and his wife, Molina.
77:01We had dinner with them over the weekend and he even in real life, congratulated me for being three and O.
77:07And I was like, you just jinxed me pal.
77:10Cause he's seen the league on Instagram. I was like, it's over.
77:14I knew for sure I was going to lose this week.
77:17I did lose this week. I allowed Joel Smith to get off the schneid here.
77:22Got his first win. They're writing here in the copy.
77:25He, he, he, he took down Harmon without much stress wins with ease.
77:29I'm not, I'm not saying it was without much stress.
77:32I'm sure Joel was stressed about it. Yeah. He had some big games from Bryce young, Malik neighbors, Nico Collins.
77:38Okay. Um, I definitely have, I have some things to figure out here.
77:42Okay. I got some issues. I got some quarterback issues.
77:46Um, Mr. If man himself, it was my quarterback that I drafted.
77:49I gotta, I gotta get Justin Herbert off this roster.
77:52I gotta get Kyler Murray off this roster. My best player might be, um, Michael Wilson.
77:57I mean, my God, what's going on here, Ray?
78:00I mean, listen, you need it. This was just the, this one was just a little tap on the, on the backside
78:07to just calm you down a little bit. You had done a little too much talking the first month.
78:13So just bring you back to reality a little bit.
78:16But ultimately I think, you know, once you, like you didn't have a bad Josh, Josh Downs, let every, I'm not even
78:23gonna say Josh Downs, let everyone down. Daniel Jones, Daniel Jones, everyone down because I mean the matchup was prime for, you know what?
78:31If Downs was going to stink, at least Tyler Warren should smash, but none of, neither of them did anything.
78:37So we blame Daniel Jones for that. And, uh, yeah, Joel, Joel had a good performance, man.
78:42You know, Nico came back. He kind of knew what was going to happen there.
78:47Gibbs didn't go off, but Nico and Malik neighbors really, really helped propel him in this one.
78:52By the way, uh, Joel, I saw offered me a trade today of Bucky Irving for Michael Wilson.
78:58So Joel, you think you're going to beat me and then try to take one of my good players.
79:04All right. Harmon couldn't beat no three team without its best player.
79:07Jalen Coker. Yeah. Okay, Joel. All right. All right.
79:10Listen, Joel's feeling himself. All right. Joel's feeling himself and you know what he should.
79:15He's got a good team. I'm not trading you, Michael Wilson for Bucky Irving.
79:19I'm not putting Bucky Irving as a total panic player on the show yesterday and then turn around and trade Michael Wilson, the goat.
79:27I don't think so. Joel. Okay. You're not going to just beat me and then raid my roster of the good players.
79:34That's not going to happen. Okay. So we're going to go ahead and decline that.
79:38Joel, you can just, you can just, you can just withdraw that trade.
79:42Don't even have me decline it. Just withdraw it and we'll keep it moving.
79:47We'll pretend it never happened. All right. Let's go on to the next matchup here.
79:51Ray. I know you don't want to talk about it, but we got to talk about it.
79:57Scott Pienowski. He does remain undefeated. The only unbeaten team.
80:00Cause I lost and we'll get to max. He also lost this week.
80:04He dropped Ray Garvin to one and three as Ray.
80:07I mean, we've got a mess here. You've got, you got, you got a mess to clean up.
80:13All right. You got, got a lot going on here.
80:16You lose again. Parker Washington, let you down. Your boy, George Pickens.
80:20You don't get points for the DPI's. Scott Pienowski's wagon continues on.
80:23Yeah. I need, I need the producers to pull up the full screen.
80:27Cause I've got, there's something disturbing going on here in this league.
80:31Now, can, can they pull up the full, the full league where you see all the scores real quick?
80:37I really need to see this and I'm gonna let you, I'm gonna let you know.
80:42There are three teams who failed to score triple digits.
80:45And all three of us are brothers. The, my brothers, the three black guys failed to hit triple digits.
80:51We got to do better. Collectively as a people, we got to do better.
80:55Titus. I know the NBA is back. You got to do better brother.
81:00Oh, and four. That's not going to Chris Allen.
81:02Yay. One since week one. And here I go failing to score triple digits.
81:07Okay. Listen, George Pickens. He's got to be better.
81:10Parker Washington. One point. Dalton Kincaid. One point. There's no, I don't know what to say.
81:15Right. I had the stream defense. This week. Harmon.
81:17I'm trying, man. I'm trying, dude. This is a, I don't know what to say.
81:22It's just us this week. It's just, it's just, we're together.
81:25We got, we got to do better. We got to do better.
81:29I'm going to just let that one. I'm just going to let that one fly.
81:34All right. I'm not, I'm not going to add to that.
81:37Ray said everything that needed to be said. Yeah.
81:40He's distracting from his terrible team by bringing that up.
81:43I don't know what to say. I'm going to keep it moving here.
81:47We're going to, we're going to go to the next one.
81:51We're going to go to the next matchup. Boone continues to surge.
81:55Speaking of Dan Titus, who, yeah, I guess it's NBA season.
81:58So Dan is checking out. He's not paying attention anymore.
82:01Dan started Matt Collins with a straight face. What's going on here?
82:05This is, this is absolutely outrageous. Okay. So also man, Jamar chase has really let Dan Titus down.
82:10He thought, remember Boone took, oh man, this is ironic.
82:14Cause again, this is the match. Remember Boone took Jonathan Taylor and thought he's like, I can't guess.
82:19I'm just going to take Jamar chase. Well, Jamar chase has let him down big time so far this year.
82:25Not, I mean, what are you going to do concussion?
82:29It's the whole deal, but yeah, Boone's got Emmanuel Wilson, Alvin Kamara solving his running back to problem at this point.
82:35I, he's got Jalen hurts doesn't have a perfect roster, but he might be soaring a little bit right now, man.
82:42Those waiver wire pickups just pan off. And Boone said, I'm done.
82:45He took Colston Loveland out of the lineup and George Kittle did exactly what he needed to do.
82:51Alvin Kamara. Who saw that coming? I mean, 20 points for Kamara.
82:55Disgusting. Just, I think this is good. Just decision-making because if I'm looking at, I'll be like, I'll play gain.
83:01Well, I'll play Al's year. That's why Boone is one of the best in the industry.
83:06And you just look at Titus. I mean, Chase Moore, Travis Kelsey, Matt Collins was the least of his concerns in this one.
83:13I mean, two points from Moore, four points from Chase to Blake Corum.
83:17Oh man. Just again, you know, he's getting ready for that, that Joker, Joker and, and, and LaMelo ball.
83:23and those things it's, it's NBA fantasy for Titus right now.
83:2712th place. It's not looking good. I don't know who any of those people are.
83:31So we'll, we'll, we'll move on there. Yeah. I got to start grinding their waiver wire like Boone.
83:37Okay. I've been looking at my roster and be like, we're all set here.
83:41We're not. Boone is trending up. Harmon trending down.
83:44We don't like that. Eric Edholm wins the ballot battle of the Eric's here in our next one.
83:50Eric Proton's one in three at homes, two and two.
83:53Yeah. I mean, at home's got a pretty decent team here coming up.
83:57Carnell Tate is, is surging. Puka Nakua is back.
84:00Trey McBride. He's got the two old man tight end thing going on here.
84:04The bench is a little rough for Eric. Go to at home.
84:08He's got the man. Maybe I need to try.
84:11Oh God. Maybe I need to offer at home a trade for one of his quarterbacks.
84:16He's got two. I've got zero, but yeah, just been bad luck for Proton so far.
84:21He's got facial tootin. Maybe I can get facial tootin off his hands.
84:25I don't know. There's some good team. There's some good players on both these teams, but are they the main contenders?
84:31We'll see Ray. Yeah. This is right here. I'd be screaming median if I were, if I were Froden because you get 130 points.
84:39And I mean, Monunga 27, Dobbs 28, 20.8, Mondray 17.
84:42Like he could, even if he wanted to, he probably couldn't have plugged all those.
84:47I guess he could. Omari on Hampton. You just, it just hindsight is 2020, but man, that's a lot of points on the bench.
84:54And then the other Eric just had a great, I mean, Puka being back helps.
84:59He didn't get anything from McBride. He went to double tight end.
85:03He went double tight ends with McBride and Mark Andrews and still, still got it done.
85:08So it'll be interesting to see what, what old Eric F does here in week five, but 130 points, man.
85:14That's a, you know, glass half full, I guess.
85:17All right, next one up. Hayden's turtlenecks escape with a win over Chris Allen, who peaked too early, talked a lot of trash after that week one win.
85:25That is his only win so far this season.
85:28And yet Hayden's team. I mean, Chuba Hubbard rocks Jackson Smith and Jigba 10 points.
85:33Big deal. He crushes it every other week. It was kind of a, again, a narrow escape here for Hayden.
85:39Chuba Hubbard is carrying this team. He's got to stop starting Bo Nix.
85:43I mean, there's gotta be something you could do about that.
85:47Hey, Hayden's got Marvin Harrison Jr. On his team.
85:50Maybe he's got the fortitude to start him this week.
85:53I'm going to go ahead and say, probably not.
85:55So I'm noticing a little theme here. These kickers, if you can land the right kicker, that is a little bit of a cheat code.
86:03I mean, 16 points for, for fair Baron. You look at Chris's squad.
86:07Honestly, there's nothing he could have done differently. I mean, it's littered of zeros on the bench.
86:13So there's, you know, when you're starting Jawan Jennings, poof, my goodness.
86:16It is just, there's nothing he could have done.
86:19There's nothing that would have changed the outcome. Cause he wasn't going to sit lad for Chris Godwin.
86:25That wasn't going to happen. Harvey was fine. Tucker Kraft was fine.
86:29And then, yeah, you look at, you look at the turtleneck over there.
86:33He went double tight end as well. Uh, with likely in Waller and survive that one, that, that kicker spot.
86:39I need to go grind the kickers. I need to go do that.
86:43Trace Mack and getting it done. Oh man. That's when, you know, your fantasy season over when you say, I got to go grind the kickers.
86:51So it's over for Ray. It's not over for Josh just yet because he took down Max.
86:56Josh is a team takes down Max for Max's first loss of the season.
87:01And let's face it. Josh needed to win this game.
87:04Okay. Josh has been very right about Kenneth Walker and very wrong about Saquon Barkley.
87:09But didn't matter this week because 145 points for Josh.
87:12Little bit of trouble though, right? Cause T Higgins banged up.
87:15He's got Denzel Boston on the bench. So there's something going on there.
87:19That's good to see. Meanwhile, Max finally paid the price for the onesie situation here, even though Brock Bowers and Josh Allen had solid outings for sure.
87:28Yeah. We needed, we needed Max to come down off that high horse.
87:32I've seen him tweeting away too. He is, he's been feeling himself a little Matt Harmon-esque about the start to the season.
87:39So getting, getting, getting, getting Josh to, to, to take care of business.
87:43That's good. But unfortunately for Josh, Saquon Barkley hurt Kenneth Walker on by, you know, Reese Hall hurts.
87:48Sadiq with the zero. And he's got to deal with me this week.
87:52Josh Norris. He's got to deal with old Ray Garvin.
87:55Oh, so we are going to go best foot forward.
87:59See what I'm saying? these kickers, man, I've got to, Hey, what's the score in here?
88:0419 points, 14 points from the kicker. I am.
88:06You can laugh at me all you want. I am grinding the hell out of that kicker wire this week.
88:13I am. Soon as we get done with this show, I'm putting bids in for kickers because that is, I got to do better.
88:20I got to do better. Josh is going down this week.
88:24Well, I mean, yeah, you might be able to take down his zombie team.
88:28Congratulations, Ray. You might finally have a responsibility. I'm going to take a look at the standings.
88:33Here's a look at the standings right now. Scott Pianowski, the only undefeated team, just absolutely dominating right now.
88:39502 points. Hayden also has 507 points. He's three and one.
88:43Then it's max. Then it's me, Boone, Josh in the fifth and the sixth spot.
88:47And then, you know, there's everybody else. There's the other guys that are kind of hanging out here.
88:53Okay. So yeah, the other guy, you know, they're in the league.
88:57They're in the league. You know, that's what that they're in the league.
89:01That's how it goes. I've got no other comment, but y'all see it.
89:05We're going to do. I'm going to hit up Chris and Titus after this and say, we're, we got to get it together.
89:12Fellas, we got to get it together. Yeah. I got nothing else.
89:16Okay. I've got nothing. I definitely, I definitely got nothing else.
89:19If that, if that, I got nothing else too.
89:22Okay. That's going to do it for today's show.
89:25Hell of a show from Ray Garvin here. That was a blast.
89:29Love to see it. Great show. Shout out again to Lane Johnson.
89:32Epic career. You did it, buddy. What a, what a bummer to see him go, but the Eagles will miss him.
89:39That is for sure. Okay. That's going to do it for today's show tomorrow.
89:43Nate Tice and Justin Boone. Will join me for a fun one at 4 PM Eastern, right here, live on the YouTube channel.
89:50Until then we are out.

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