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1:45This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!
1:48Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
1:53Off to the races! And he stays at his feet!
1:56Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:59Finishing up an extended look at the top 24 players in our consensus rankings.
2:04Today we're talking about Rasheed Rice, Saquon Barkley, Nico Collins, Kenneth Walker, and finally the tight ends, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride,
2:11who check in at 23rd and 24th in our consensus rankings.
2:14Now, the rankings did change a little bit. Yesterday we talked about Henry and Pickens, for example, as top 18 players.
2:21They've moved a little bit because the rankings get updated a lot.
2:25They're now 20th and 21st. So you can see here from 15th through 24, actually Rasheed Rice has moved up.
2:32He's now 15th in the consensus rankings. Then it's Hampton and Gentty.
2:35Then Barkley, Nico Collins, Derek Henry, George Pickens, Walker, Bowers, and McBride.
2:39And one more reminder today, we're going to talk Rice, Barkley, Nico, Walker, Bowers, McBride.
2:44All right. Good morning, Heath. Big show for you.
2:47We've got a lot of Heath-related content on today's show.
2:50You know, I heard you say this when we were doing the mic check, and I thought there's no way that's a good thing for me.
2:59Like if you said we had a Dave-centric show or a Jamie-centric show, I would think that like we'd be saying a
3:06lot of good things or highlighting their work. I assume this is just going to be embarrassing.
3:11No, not at all. I think we have a very funny dad joke that one of our listeners sent in that I'd like to share with you.
3:20It's a visual one. So I'll do my best.
3:23It's a guy and a girl talking. The guy says, hi, my name is Heath.
3:28And the girl says, hey, nice to meet you.
3:31I'm Heather. And he says, this isn't a competition.
3:34It's so good. It's really funny because Heather is just Heath-er.
3:37Yeah. And it's very – I don't think the audio audience can really appreciate it, but we'll call this a meme, I guess.
3:45This is very good. What do you think, Heath?
3:48Yeah, I mean I think he probably could have used my face would have made it a little better.
3:54No, it's fantastic. Really good. And that was from Jason in Pennsylvania.
3:58Good job, Jason. Now we got an email from Alex all the way back on June 10th, 15 days ago.
4:04And he said, listening to yesterday's show when you and Heath were talking about the Knicks' historic spread, and Heath said, no
4:11one is listening to you and bringing it for water cooler talk.
4:15I wanted to let you know both at work and with a friend, I told them, quote, if the Knicks win, they'll be the largest finals underdog ever.
4:24So you definitely have some water cooler sway. Of course, I was wrong about that stat.
4:29Probably less now since it was an incorrect fact.
4:32Yeah. You should have stopped with the meme. Yeah.
4:35No, I just want – you don't know this, Dave and Jay, because you were out.
4:40But my goal on this show is always to get people repeating stats, things they hear on this show at the water cooler.
4:48I want water cooler stuff. So – Don't people work from home now?
4:52Yeah, but they – fine, the fridge. Like you?
4:55You want full house and cheers back on television too?
4:58What? Some people – a lot of people work – you guys, we have it lucky.
5:03We're lucky here. Well, Dave's at the office. But we don't go in the office much.
5:09Dave, how often do you hang around the water cooler?
5:12Oh, man, let me tell you. It's the place to be here at Paramount's CBS Sports Digital Studios in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
5:19Well, would you guys like some water cooler stats?
5:22Here we go. Water cooler stats about some of the players we're talking about today.
5:27I don't recall saying yes to this. Trey McBride had eight touchdown catches of 10 or more yards last year.
5:33No other tight end had more than four. It's the most touchdowns of 10 or more yards for a tight end since
5:40Eric Ebron had nine such touchdowns in 2018. Ebron then went ahead to score nine more in his career in 34 more games.
5:48Not the best guy to compare Trey McBride to there.
5:51No. Kittle, I think, had one or two seasons with seven.
5:55But eight touchdowns of 10 or more yards for Trey McBride.
5:58For a guy who could never score touchdowns was interesting.
6:01If McBride finishes as tight end one again, but loses the four point per game advantage he has over the field that he had last year.
6:10So he scores 14 points per game from 18 points per game.
6:14Is he a bust, but he's still tight end one?
6:17No one's going to think of him as a bust.
6:20Yes. Well, okay, he's being drafted where? 24th-ish? Yeah.
6:23I'm going to guess his ADP is probably going to end up around like 15.
6:28Yeah, if it's there, then it's busty. So 14 is not that much.
6:32So if we make it 15, because two years ago you had Kittle, McBride, and Bowers all in the – Whatever number you want to put it at.
6:41So he – That's a big deal. He comes down and he's won and he's 15.3 points per game.
6:47He was 15.6 in 2024. And Bowers is 15.4.
6:50And Loveland is 13.8. And Warren is 13.5. Like, do you consider McBride a bust?
6:55No, but he's not like – he's not amazing.
6:58You're going to certainly consider Loveland and especially Warren way better.
7:02If I'm – maybe not bust, I would probably say yes.
7:05But at the very least, if that happens, he was a bad pick at the 2-3 turn.
7:11Yeah, and Heath, you alerted us to a – this could go in the water cooler talk as well – a tweet from Rich Rebar of Sharp Football.
7:20And he said that Trey McBride basically ran 22 – about 22 games worth of routes last year for a team.
7:27They were first in the NFL in past attempts.
7:30He ran 120 more routes than the next closest tight end.
7:33So just a lot that went right for him.
7:36It's just another way to express something we've talked about a lot.
7:40Like, they're probably not going to lead the NFL in past attempts again.
7:44And if Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson are both healthy all year, Trey McBride's probably not going to have the same
7:51huge target share that he did last year. He's just a pretty obvious regression candidate.
7:56But the question is, does he regress to 17 fantasy points per game, in which case the 2-3 turn's fine.
8:03If he regresses – I've got him at 14.5 in my projections, but 15 fantasy points per game, I don't like that
8:10at the 2-3 turn at all, especially with all the other tight ends we like.
8:15I think – I know Dave is McBride over Bowers.
8:18I know he was prior to this conversation. Still am.
8:21But I think consensus-wise, we for the most part have been ahead of Bowers over McBride and Gibbs over Bijan.
8:28You know, I think he – let's throw in our numbers here.
8:31If a tight end averaged 17 points per game, I think that tight end's worthy of a 1-2 turn pick, personally.
8:38That's a massive season. There have been only eight tight ends.
8:42There have been eight tight ends who have done it in the last 10 years, and three of them have been Travis Kelsey.
8:49One of them was McBride last year. He was like 18.5 points per game.
8:54He was on one of the worst passing offenses of any – even though they threw the most – of any of
9:01the teams that produced a tight end that averaged 17 points per game.
9:05So if you're just thinking about how many points does McBride need to justify that pick, I don't know.
9:11I'm just going to throw this out there. McBride and Bowers.
9:1517 points per game, to me, for a tight end, is 1-2 turn.
9:1916 points per game, middle of round two. 15 points per game, 2-3 turn.
9:24Just a guideline. Yeah, but I think like what Heath has been saying and saying it for a while is that we
9:31could see a few guys in this range. Right, Heath?
9:34If I'm not mistaken, like you're – not again.
9:37This isn't the year of the tight end. They're not going to be, you know, record-breaking across the board.
9:43But it is fairly deep at the top in terms of McBride and Bowers.
9:48Bowers, McBride, however you want to rank them. Then the next group of guys, which I think is a pretty good group
9:55of Loveland, Warren, Pitts, Laporta, Kraft, Fannin. Like there's a lot of talent there and a lot of good opportunities for these guys.
10:02And then maybe Kittle and Kelsey can still, you know, produce at a high level.
10:07Kelsey was very good with Mahomes last year. Kittle obviously is looking like he's trending in the right direction coming off the
10:14Achilles injury, especially if you saw some of the footage from tight end U that they posted this week.
10:20Like, you know, so it is an opportunity. Like while those guys, to your point, Adam, like if they do produce that level.
10:28But that was kind of what I was getting at.
10:31Like where's the sliding scale stopped to where McBride is not a bust, where there's, you know, six guys over 13 points
10:38per game, seven guys over 13 points per game.
10:41Like do we potentially get that? And I think we could.
10:45But, you know, again, like where does it stop and how much better is McBride?
10:49I think just the case, you know, against McBride from a year ago is they led the NFL in past attempts.
10:56They didn't have a run game at all. They should now.
11:00They, you know, it was like the perfect setup of, hey, we're down two scores.
11:05Okay, Jacoby Brissett and, you know, Shane McBride without Marvin Harrison on the field.
11:09Go out and just, you know, live together. And that's what they did.
11:13They just produced at a very high level and it was amazing for us.
11:18Will that happen again? You know, is Michael Wilson going to be Puka Nakua as, you know, LaFleur indicated?
11:24Is Marvin Harrison going to be Devontae Adams? You know, and are we going to get these two wide receivers?
11:31Not producing at that level because that's crazy, but just taking enough away from McBride that it hurts him to where he's just, again, closer to the field.
11:40100 points better than tight end two in Kyle Pitts last year.
11:43And again, four points per game better than Brock Bowers last year.
11:47Or George Kittle, I forget who it was. But just an absolute fantastic season.
11:52I just think we got to rein it in a little bit.
11:56Okay. Well, those are some McBride stats. And here's some more water cooler stats.
12:00Hope you're all thirsty. Kenneth Walker. He's averaged fewer than two catches per game in three of his four NFL seasons.
12:07And he has six career catches in the two-minute drill.
12:10The Chiefs have been 25th or lower in running back rush attempts in seven of the last eight seasons.
12:17What do you think is more likely to happen?
12:19Which trend? Walker more than two catches per game?
12:22Or Chiefs higher than 25th in running back rush attempts?
12:26You mean Walker fewer than two catches? No, because he's been fewer in three of four.
12:31Like, which trend is going to break? Is he going to have more?
12:35Oh, Chiefs being 25th or lower in running back rush attempts.
12:39Both. Both. Okay. I don't think it's going to be both.
12:42I think it's definitely going to be the running back rush attempts.
12:46As long as Walker's healthy. I have Walker at 37 catches.
12:50So I'll go with both, too. And I'm the low guy on him.
12:54Saquon Barkley's played seven healthy seasons. Two of them were super elite in the other five.
12:59He's been RB7, 31, 5, 9, and 15 per game.
13:02So he's been kind of all over the place.
13:05But kind of weird that Barkley's only had two amazing seasons and seven healthy seasons.
13:10And over the last, I think we talked about this stuff when we mentioned Barkley one or two weeks ago.
13:16Over the last two seasons, Saquon Barkley has zero one-yard touchdown runs.
13:20Zero. 14 running backs have at least five in that span.
13:24He did have three carries from the one-yard line last year.
13:27He did not score on any of them. And last Barkley stat for me right now.
13:33Barkley, he scored nine total touchdowns last year. I believe seven rushing, two receiving.
13:37Six of those nine touchdowns came in games where Lane...
13:40Seven games where Lane Johnson played 75% or more of the snaps.
13:44And the Eagles averaged like 25 points per game in those games.
13:48So that's like we always talk about the Chargers offensive line.
13:52The Eagles were really beat up. And they always do so much better when Lane Johnson is healthy.
13:58He played nine or ten games last year, but only seven of them, 75% or more of the snaps.
14:04And last thing for all of you very thirsty people, Nico Collins has been good for three years.
14:10He's missed a lot of games and he's played...
14:12He's left a lot of games early. But if you look at Nico Collins, the games, only the games where he's played
14:2050% or more of the snaps, in two of the last three seasons, he has averaged at least 18.5 PPR fantasy points per game.
14:27And it didn't happen last year. How many games has he played at least 50% of the snaps?
14:33I could tell you. But I'm not going to.
14:36Because it's going to take me... Probably like on average 12 a year maybe?
14:41Well, that's it? That sounds about right to me.
14:44I mean, he only played 12 games two years ago.
14:47Yeah. All right. Okay. So it was 13 games in 2023.
14:50And it was nine games in 2024 and 15 last year.
14:54So about 12 a year. But he does have that potential.
14:58He's shown it in the past. Cool. All right.
15:00We got some news and notes for you when we come back.
15:04And then we'll talk more about these guys. Rasheed Rice, Saquon Barkley, and Nico Collins.
15:09You know, it'll be an interesting exercise. All right.
15:12So am I wrong here? What if we all ranked them?
15:16If Rasheed Rice... They're all dead last for me.
15:19Did Rasheed Rice and Trey McBride kind of start breaking out at the same time?
15:23Was it two and a half years ago? Yep.
15:26Second half of 23. Three. I wonder who's averaging more targets per game in that stretch.
15:32I can get that for you during the break.
15:34Yeah. All right. Let's find out. Are we A's or statting it?
15:38Or... It's like the last six games of Rasheed Rice.
15:42It's, you know, when Rasheed Rice broke out and when...
15:45But we have to take out the game that he got.
15:48Yeah. It's ACL torn, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay.
15:51He had zero targets in that game. So again, that's 17 regular season games without that game.
15:57We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Hey, before we jump back into the show, let's take a quick break.
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16:19Snapple real fact, 1-1-1-9. The Grand Canyon could hold about 900 trillion footballs.
16:24Snapple real fact, 2-0-6-4. The first college football game broadcast on TV was on September 30th, 1939.
16:29Snapple real fact, 1-8-9-6. The tradition of playing football on Thanksgiving originated with college football in 1876.
16:35So grab a Snapple, take a second, and enjoy the moment.
16:38Because let's be honest, this might be the most refreshing part of your day.
16:43Snapple, make your break more interesting. All right, now let's get back to the show.
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18:18That's code podcast at G-R-U-N-S dot C-O. All right, what do we got?
18:22Well, I just got Rasheed Rice's 9.6 targets per game since week 12 of 2023.
18:27Okay, that's more than McBride. Yeah. I think McBride, since week 8 of 2023, is on pace for 159 targets, and that divided by 17 is 9.4.
18:35Okay. That's amazing for both of them. Real quick, the news and notes.
18:40Detroit cornerback Terry and Arnold was arrested in connection with a robbery and kidnapping.
18:44This is kind of a wild story, some pretty serious allegations against Terry and Arnold, and we'll see how that plays out.
18:51Brandon Ayuk seems like he wants to sign with the commanders.
18:55He said he will sign with them if San Francisco releases him.
18:59The commanders didn't say it back. Why would the commanders want him at this point?
19:04Every time he talks, I feel like it's less likely he's ever going to play football again.
19:09Jacksonville signed... Serious question, just because he's training in Maryland.
19:12Who would you rather have right now, Stephon Diggs or Brandon Ayuk?
19:16If Ayuk is healthy, I'd rather give him the bag because he's younger.
19:21I would not pay either one a dime. Why not Diggs?
19:24It feels really strange to say that I trust Stephon Diggs.
19:28I'd rather have what they seem to be acting like than what...
19:32I shouldn't say, I'd pay Stephon Diggs. I would not pay Brandon Ayuk at all.
19:36I mean, with Terry McClure and where he functions on the field, wouldn't maybe Keenan Allen make more sense, and you can
19:44at least trust that he's going to show up every week.
19:47Yeah. I think Diggs or Allen, yeah. Absolutely make more sense.
19:51That's Diggs now. I mean, Diggs is basically a slot guy now.
19:55Yeah, but I... So, Diggs has these off-field, you know...
19:58He's fine. He's in the clear, it seems, but he's had some stories.
20:02But I actually am quite impressed with what he did last year at age 31, coming off a torn ACL.
20:08I don't think Diggs gets enough credit for that.
20:11He was really good. Just didn't play all that much.
20:15He was really good in that context. Yeah, but he was one of the most efficient wide receivers.
20:20Most of it was just a super high catch rate, but one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL.
20:27Yeah, I would not touch Brandon Ayuk's... I would not take Brandon Ayuk on my roster right now.
20:33No. The Jaguars signed Brenton Strange to a three-year extension worth up to $48 million with $25 million guaranteed.
20:39It's a shame for fantasy purposes that it doesn't really seem like Strange has much of a path to being consistent this year.
20:47It's just too crowded, but he's a solid player.
20:50And Matthew Stafford, for those of you who own roster him in Dynasty Leagues, says it's going to be year to year with him.
20:57He's going to make the decision whether or not to keep playing.
21:01All right. All right. Players 19 through 24 in the consensus rankings.
21:05So where are we on Rasheed Rice now, guys?
21:08Now that the dust has settled a little bit, Heath, you seem pretty excited about him.
21:13I think I have him, well, probably right where everybody else does now.
21:17He's 14th for me. I think you can start considering him at the 1-2 turn.
21:22We will certainly hope that nothing happens in the next couple of months that changes that.
21:27And you always have to be worried about that with Rasheed Rice, especially when it's the offseason.
21:33But assuming that he is at training camp for the start of it and that everyone's current expectation that he faces no
21:40punishment is what happens, then he has a chance to be a top five wide receiver.
21:45In full PPR, he has a chance to be the best wide receiver.
21:49Ooh, that's a bold take. I mean, I didn't say he will be, but he's not in the top tier of that
21:57discussion, but I think he's in the second tier.
22:00Yeah, sure. Okay. And Dave, you have Rice kind of where Heath has him, 13th, 14th.
22:05Jamie, though, you still have him 20th, Rasheed Rice.
22:08Yeah, I didn't want to screw with your show, so I didn't update my rankings yet.
22:13Okay. Where do you think you'll have Rasheed Rice?
22:16Round one. Oh. Okay. All systems go. So, yeah, he's been like McBride, just super consistent over the last three years, so many targets.
22:24What could go wrong, Dave, for Rasheed Rice? Hey!
22:26On the field, on the field. Literally anything would be unsurprising.
22:30Okay, so we're not going to talk about anything that's happened off the field.
22:35He does have a mild injury history. He had a knee cleanup, obviously, this offseason.
22:39Concussion cost him three games last year. The left knee explosion in 2024 cost him a season then.
22:45The bigger issue for me, and this is what I think might make him a little bit more inconsistent, is the change
22:52at running back in Kansas City and the fact that they brought in Kenneth Walker.
22:57And we're all really excited about Kenneth Walker coming in and being the face of that run game and doing really well.
23:04I do have a little bit of a hard time believing that both Rice and Walker can be awesome on a week-to-week basis.
23:12And I feel like I talked about this last week.
23:15I'll give the stats again. 18 career games when a Kansas City running back has had 15-plus carries.
23:21Rice has had 17 or more in eight of them, 14 in one of them, 13.3 or fewer in nine of them.
23:28Kind of makes him a 50-50 proposition, and you might say, well, 13.3 PPR points isn't that bad.
23:34If you're drafting a wide receiver at the 1-2 turn that's doing that half the time, it's not great.
23:40He also has 20 or more PPR points in half of four career games when a Chiefs running back, while he's been
23:47in the league, has had 20 or more carries.
23:50So all that on top of the injury concern, any type of bounce back from Kelsey or Xavier Worthy, it does make
23:57me a little nervous about Rasheed Rice, but I just think he's earned so much credit in this Chiefs offense for being the go-to for Patrick Mahomes.
24:06And Mahomes is still going to need the go-to, especially if he's not as mobile as he's been in the past.
24:13I have a hard time with wide receivers once you get past CeeDee Lamb.
24:17And Rasheed Rice, at least in full PPR, is the placeholder for me as the next best wide receiver that fantasy managers
24:24can trust because he still has upside. The Chiefs have been top seven in pass attempts in six straight seasons.
24:31They just love to throw. So Dave, follow-up question.
24:34Obviously, that's important for Rice. Follow-up question for you.
24:37Are you kind of low on Walker then? I think I'm low by comparison to where Jamie and Heath have him.
24:43I'm not sure. You're the same as Heath, 25th.
24:46Jamie has him 15th. Jamie's a little higher. Okay.
24:49So yeah, I have a hard time buying into both Rice and Walker being awesome.
24:54I think one of them can be awesome. I think there's a chance both of them can be really good.
25:01But if I had to pick one in full PPR, I'm taking Rice.
25:05Yeah, what do you guys think? I think Jamie's going to end up being just like both of these guys are top 15 picks.
25:13I think you could see the Chiefs throw more and Rice still gets a big volume just because Mahomes kind of does what Mahomes wants to do.
25:21This team infamously ran through the most out of RPOs last year.
25:25And maybe they'll just run fewer RPOs because Mahomes just always chooses the P.
25:30But I think it's still his team. Yeah, they're going to run them all more than they have.
25:36But they're not taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands.
25:39And he throws... I mean, he's shown us this with Kelsey.
25:43As Kelsey's aged and not been the same guy, Patrick Mahomes is still going to throw it to the guys that he feels comfortable with.
25:51I just think that their offense has been kind of average for three straight years.
25:56Yes. And Rushy Rice was awesome through all of it.
25:59Yeah, but I mean, that's the pathway to both Walker and Rice being good is just their offense just gets better.
26:06Instead of finishing 12th and 13th in points per game, maybe they can be 6th or 7th or something like that.
26:12You have a quarterback who, yes, is still going to obviously dominate the plays and what he wants to do.
26:19He's coming off a significant knee injury. And so what we saw from him last year was he was running the ball a ton.
26:27I think that goes away. I think this is where Kenneth Walker wins.
26:31I think they use him in the passing game a lot, which is why I think we're going to see a spike
26:38in his production in the passing game. That's all you've heard out of minicamp is that they're just so impressed with what
26:45he's done as a pass catcher and surprising them as a pass catcher, et cetera, et cetera.
26:51Now, does that mean he's going to turn into peak Austin Eckler?
26:55No. He's going to do, I think, the things that Kenneth Walker does best, which when he's been featured has been absolutely
27:02amazing postseason last year, they paid him all this money to be this guy.
27:06They were 32nd in rushing last year. Like that has to improve for this offense to get better and for them to
27:13take pressure off of Mahomes and not have him have to be a superhero time and time again.
27:19Obviously it's worked for them, but again, he's getting older, Kelsey's older, and he's coming off this knee injury.
27:25So I think the run game gets better. I think that Walker is going to be a more dynamic running back than
27:32we've seen from him before because of these opportunities to play in the passing game.
27:37And he's going to get all these touchdown opportunities that he lost last year from Zach Charbonnet.
27:43So I think there's a chance for both these guys to be extremely successful.
27:47This receiving core is absolutely abysmal when you get past him.
27:51So Xavier Worthy could take a step forward, but it's a big if.
27:55It's a big question mark. After them, it's the sacrificial ex, whatever we want to call Tyquan Thornton, and just a bunch of nothing.
28:03So these young guys are going to have to step up potentially, especially if Rice misses time.
28:08There's just nothing there besides a 36-year-old Travis Kelsey and Rashi Rice, which is why Rice should be awesome.
28:15Kelsey should be an amazing value pick because what we saw from him last year when Mahomes was healthy, he was still producing at a very high level.
28:24And then I think Walker is going to do a lot of great things.
28:28Now, the scary part for Walker is, if you want to just tie him into this also, is that could they take
28:35him off the field for these other guys? Because they really did invest in their backfield.
28:41They spent another draft pick on a running back.
28:43They bring in Di Mercado, who they like, who I think is going to end up playing a little bit more on
28:51special teams probably than anything else, but still somebody that could be a factor here.
28:55And we'll see what Rashad Smith does, but I think he's also going to be a special team guy more in the return game.
29:03But I think you're just looking at these two guys as this is what the new Chiefs offense is.
29:09It's a finally, it's finally a guy in the backfield that's not just a retread player or somebody that we're hoping to see coming off an injury.
29:18And you know, you said they, they, they struggled to run the ball.
29:22When Pacheco was healthy and that guy, he was one of the best fantasy running backs for that stretch.
29:28Yes. Thank you. I remember. Walker could be that guy and maybe even better because his pedigree and his resume is obviously better.
29:36So I think they're both worth taking late round one, early round two.
29:40Again, I'll be ahead of it on Walker and maybe it looks silly if he gets hurt again because you got to factor it in.
29:48But last year, stayed healthy, played at an unbelievable level, was the best running back.
29:53Just if you take the stretch of games in the postseason and compare it to the best player last year in McCaffrey,
30:00he was two points per game better during that postseason stretch than McCaffrey was for the season.
30:06Again, it's not replicable. Don't expect that. But could he be 18 points per game or more?
30:11I think so. I think he's got that much upside in this offense.
30:15My big question with everything Jamie said because I think it was pretty much all right was the touchdowns part.
30:22Is we have, last year, we talk all the time about how much Matthew Stafford threw to Devontae Adams inside the 10-yard line.
30:29Last year, Mahomes finished second in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line despite the fact that he got hurt in week 15.
30:36He had 50 passes inside the 10-yard line. That's been a thing that's been pretty consistent for the Chiefs is Mahomes either
30:44passing or running it himself inside of the 10-yard line.
30:47They love those little whatever you call them to Travis Kelsey on the misdirection and you've got, like they, they, they, and
30:54that's the one thing that Walker really, like he didn't have that.
30:58I think he'll have it this year. I don't think they're taking him off the field for a running back inside the
31:0510, but I don't know that he's had a lot of success inside the 10.
31:10So is it, is it pounding Ken Walker at the goal line or is it another creative Mahomes touchdown?
31:16Well, Mahomes had five rushing touchdowns last year. Kareem Hunt had eight.
31:20As a team, they had 10 rushing touchdowns from the five-yard line or closer.
31:24And I don't know if this, which is pretty solid and pretty much in line with what we've seen from the Chiefs in the Mahomes era.
31:33I don't know if that's over. She writes that.
31:36Seven rushing touchdowns in 2024 and 13 games. What's that?
31:39Kareem Hunt had seven rushing touchdowns for them in 2024 and 13 games.
31:43Like that's, I mean, if Walker's getting that, he's probably going to, I'm going to say he does better than that personally.
31:50I think we could be looking at a 10 touchdown season.
31:54It's funny. If you look at their rush attempts inside the 10 last year, or I guess that's inside the five inside the 10.
32:02I'm not, I think they had, I think they were through more passes inside the 10 and they ran if you don't count Mahomes runs.
32:10Probably, but I didn't know if this was a Rasheed Rice or a Kenneth Walker thing because Rice, most of his touchdowns are short yardage touchdowns.
32:18So it's like, does he get hurt because now they have Ken Walker or does Walker get hurt because the Chiefs don't
32:25run the ball all that much there? I mean, I guess I would just say like the Chiefs, when their offense is clicking, none of this really matters.
32:34They just score a lot of points and the good players do well.
32:39I just don't know if they still don't have like an explosive playmaker in their receiving core unless Worthy's actually good and we just don't know it yet.
32:48So I just don't know what to expect. If the Chiefs, if they're still like a middling offense, then probably one of
32:55these two players is going to be disappointing at that value.
32:58But yeah, I think they ran the ball enough near the goal line for last year for Kenneth Walker if they do
33:05it again to be successful this year. I just don't think he's going to be the third down back and he's never been a two-minute drill back.
33:14So I'm not so optimistic. I mean, 37 catches, you said, Heath.
33:18Jamie seems to be more optimistic for more. I think like where Sportsline is, 45 receptions, I think is realistic.
33:25That's a lot these days. You know, that's a big deal.
33:28All right. Well, that's Ken Walker. You know, he's not next in the rankings, but we knocked him out along with Rasheed Rice.
33:36So then Rasheed Rice is, call him 19th, even though he's 15th, but for the sake of our show.
33:42Let's throw that list back up again, actually, 15 through 24.
33:45Rasheed Rice, 15. Hampton, Gentie, 16 and 17. So let's get to Barkley now.
33:50He's now 18th in the consensus rankings and he is ahead of Derrick Henry because I think a few of us yesterday
33:57said we'd prefer Barkley to Henry and they were back-to-back yesterday with Henry ahead.
34:01Now Barkley's two spots ahead of Derrick Henry. Anyway, Dave, Saquon Barkley after he was, I believe, RB 15 per game and just a huge bust last year.
34:11Bye-bye, Kevin Petullo. Hello, Sean Mannion. Hello, Lane Johnson.
34:13Offensive line's healthy. Should be, hopefully it stays healthy for the balance of the season.
34:18I think the change in offense and going to that West Coast style that everybody else is using should be favorable for
34:25Saquon Barkley and maybe a few more design targets for him.
34:29And we were squeamish on him last year because he had so much work and he did come into 2025 including the postseason.
34:36He had nearly 350 touches. He stayed on the field.
34:40He was healthy. I don't like that he's not getting goal line touchdowns, but he hasn't been getting that for a while.
34:47I could see inefficiency bounce back. I could see him being worth a second round pick in full PPR getting around 16
34:54PPR points per game, which is exactly what he averaged in the first eight games of last year.
35:00And right around then, maybe a little bit after is when Lane Johnson got hurt.
35:05The whole offense fell off without Lane Johnson on the field.
35:08So hopefully, A, Lane Johnson stays healthy and B, the Eagles have a good alternative to Lane Johnson for if slash when Johnson misses time.
35:16I'm not going to say that he's truly a linchpin, but stats kind of suggest that an offensive tackle is a linchpin for Philadelphia.
35:24Heath, that stat I gave about Barkley having zero one-yard touchdown runs in the last two seasons and only three carries from the one-yard line last year.
35:33And I don't know how many Derrick Henry had from the one, but he had 24 carries from inside the five-yard line last year.
35:41I'm now starting to rethink Barkley versus Henry. But anyway, what do you think about those two running backs?
35:47Pretty different profiles, I'd say, because Henry's this touchdown machine and Barkley's probably going to have to break off some long ones like he did two years ago.
35:56Yeah, and the thing about Derrick Henry is he also occasionally breaks off long runs.
36:01Yeah. Like, I think it really probably comes down to this new offensive philosophy.
36:05Does it have more targets for the running backs?
36:08Because I don't think the tush push is still legal, right?
36:12Yep. Yep. The tush push has been more effective at gaining one yard than a Saquon Barkley run.
36:18Um, pretty much throughout Jalen Hurts' career. So, I don't really expect a big change in their approach at the one yard line or in short yardage.
36:26Um, it's just, does Barkley get enough targets to make up for the fact that Henry scores more touchdowns?
36:32And, it may not just be that either. Does Barkley bounce back at all in terms of his rushing efficiency?
36:39Because, like, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry in his first year in Philadelphia.
36:43It was down to 4.1 last year. That's, that's an enormous difference if you're talking about 250 to 300 rush attempts over
36:51a full season and it's a yard and a half difference.
36:54Whereas, I know you'll love this because YPC for life, Derek Henry been over 5 yards each of his two years in Baltimore.
37:02Um, I, I still have Henry one spot ahead of Barkley, but I don't have a strong, like, I think it's pretty
37:09much a toss-up and probably comes down to which one of them shows any sign of aging or gets hurt.
37:15Another edge for Barkley over Henry is that he plays a ton.
37:19Jamie, the top 10 running backs in plays per game last year just being on the field.
37:25McCaffrey, Taylor, Bijon, Barkley was four, and then it was Javante, Kyron Williams, Jente, Achan, Jameer Gibbs, Chase Brown, but that's one
37:32of the appeals for Barkley is that he just really doesn't leave the field much.
37:37Are you optimistic, Jamie, for Barkley this year? I think just the fact that they say they're going to throw him the ball more.
37:44You know, you know, Sean Mannion's offense, I think, is going to allow him to be more involved in the passing game,
37:51and that's something that's huge for him because, you know, look, he's not going to be a 90-catch guy like we saw
37:59as a rookie, but can he get close to that 40-catch plateau, 50-catch plateau?
38:03Like, that's huge, and you've just taken away the best receiver in Philadelphia, so while Makai Lemon and Marquise Brown and all
38:10these new additions, Dontavian Wicks are going to be a factor, obviously, I think Barkley might be their second, or if you
38:17want to throw Dallas Godden they're the third-best pass catcher, you know, so involve him more in the passing game.
38:24I know that's not something that Jalen Hertz has done very much because of his, you know, ability to use his legs
38:31and escape when things get in trouble, but maybe those couple of passes that happen over the couple, several passes that happen
38:38over the course of the season, the more designed passes, you know, he averaged, you know, based on the graphic that we
38:45showed, 2.3 receptions per game in 2025, if that can get north of three, then that's just a huge boost for him,
38:52so give him more opportunities in space, give him an opportunity to still be the playmaker that we know he's capable of,
38:59I think that's going to help him in a big way, so yes, it should be close between him and Henry, you
39:07know, you are talking about two running backs that are very similar from a two-year period of changing teams and one having
39:14a little bit more consistent success, one having a huge spike year, but I think when you look at it, like, the
39:21things that Henry has lost in terms of the center and the fullback and the thing that I hope that Barkley will
39:28gain in terms of his role in the passing game, that's what gives him the edge for me, so I think Henry
39:35will outrush him, I think Henry will outtouchdown him, I think Barkley and his reception totals getting back to a level of
39:42a little bit more respectability for what the type of player that he is, I think that will give him a little bit of an edge.
39:51Okay, that's Saquon Barkley, so we've got Rasheed Rice, Kenneth Walker and Saquon Barkley discussed, that leaves us with Nico Collins and two tight ends.
39:59We're going to take a break on fantasy football today, finish up with the last three players in our top 24 consensus
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40:56Nico Collins, another guy that we're hoping will bounce back and he is, where is he exactly in the consensus rankings?
41:03Bring that up here. Let's see. Collins is 19th and in average draft position, he is 23rd at wide receiver nine.
41:10Dave, what kind of bounce back are we going to get from Nico Collins?
41:15I think we'll see him get right back to where he was in the first 12 games of last year, 16.8 PPR points per game.
41:23His role is rock solid, eight targets per game last year, 8.3 targets per game the year prior.
41:28The easy number one wide receiver in Houston. This is another wide receiver, however, that is seeing his run game change, although
41:36I'm not nearly as worried about that for Nico.
41:39So as I am for Rice, and I'm not even that worried about it for Rasheed Rice, but David Montgomery coming there
41:46could cost Nico Collins some opportunities inside the 10-yard line, but still just a dynamic pass catcher.
41:51He's done so well for Houston. I think Stroud's going to continue to lean on him.
41:56I don't think there's a huge step coming for either Jaden Higgins or Jalen Knoll in this offense, and fantasy managers can
42:03gravitate toward him as one of those borderline top 12 wide receivers who should still get a lot of work.
42:10Why? Okay, when you look at, now I'm just asking the question, why Rasheed Rice over Nico Collins?
42:16We were not doing that, well, last year was different, he had the suspension, so forget that aspect of it, but why,
42:23Heath, why Rasheed Rice over Nico Collins? Better quarterback, better offense, I like Rice's, probably, like Dave talked about eight targets a
42:30game for Nico Collins, which is really good, it's probably nine to nine and a half for Rasheed Rice based on what
42:37we've seen the last three years, so more targets, and it's funny because I think both of them, we talk about all
42:44the concerns for Rasheed Rice, but they're mostly off the field, I am more concerned about Nico's ability to stay healthy than they am Rice's.
42:52Are you concerned about Nico's ability to produce? I mean, to produce 18 fantasy points per game, yes.
42:58I have him projected for 15, I think it's interesting that we're talking about him as like, and he is, we're hoping
43:05for him to bounce back in terms of efficiency, but he's never played more games than he did last year, he's never
43:12had more targets than he did last year, he still averaged 9.3 yards per target last year, which is elite for wide receivers.
43:20I think probably more likely that that season he had in 2023, where he averaged 11.9 yards per target and scored had
43:27a touchdown on seven and a half percent of his targets is probably the outlier.
43:32I would not expect him to get back to that.
43:35That was 2023. Yeah. Well, in 2024, look, you got to take out three games weeks five, 11 and 18.
43:42he played fewer than 50% of the snaps. But one of those games, he was awesome though, right?
43:47One of those games, he had like 70 yards and a touchdown, barely played week five.
43:532024, the games that he played more than half snaps, he was on pace for 108 catches, 1,579 yards and nine touchdowns on 161 targets.
44:01That's about 18.8 points per game, which is why I was so excited about him last year.
44:06It did not work out. So the targets just went way down last year.
44:11I mean, he was on pace for 136 targets last year, which is weird.
44:15But, you know, he's still, Nico Collins has been one of those guys that he's kind of played on this team that
44:22doesn't get a ton of national attention. They've been good, but they're kind of boring.
44:27He's been one of the most efficient, statistically one of the best wide receivers in football over the last three years.
44:34Does anybody think of him that way? Do you guys think he's a superstar wide receiver?
44:39I mean, if you put him on the Bengals, he's probably a first round pick.
44:44If you put him on the Rams, he's probably a first round pick.
44:48You know, like you put him with better quarterback, better offense.
44:52I think there's obvious ways that he shines a little bit differently, a little bit brighter.
44:57But look, he's certainly been, you know, you're probably asking the wrong group because obviously we follow it a little bit differently.
45:04You know, so we certainly are aware of what I think the interesting thing for this year is there's just so much
45:11positive reports coming out about Jaden Higgins and now Tank Hill might be, Tank Dell might be back.
45:17Dalton Schultz is still going to be a factor.
45:20Like, I don't think Nico Collins has a target concern, but it may be a little bit to downgrade him when you're
45:27comparing him to some of these other guys in that range.
45:31And then you factor in C.J. Stroud and what the struggles have been since his rookie campaign.
45:36And then you factor in that this defense is so dominant and they don't have to throw as much.
45:42And then you factor in that if David Montgomery is healthier, the run game should take a huge step forward from where it was a year ago.
45:51So, like, all these things sort of come into play here with Nico where he should be in this mix with Pickens and A.J.
45:59Brown and maybe still Chris Olave and some of these other guys that are, you know, back end of the top 12 at the wide receiver group.
46:08So, in a perfect world, Nico Collins is dominating targets and looking like he did in 2023.
46:13In an imperfect world, he's sharing targets a little bit more.
46:17He's still got to worry about the health concerns and his quarterback isn't exactly the best.
46:22So, to me, he's a late round two pick.
46:25Dave's the highest on him. Dave has Collins 15th.
46:28Jamie and Heath have him 21st and 22nd, which at least means that everyone likes Nico Collins at his current ADP, which on Fantasy Pros is 23rd overall.
46:37I mean, I think the comparison that's very easy to make based on stats, maybe even based on body type and somewhat the way they play is A.J.
46:46Brown. Yep. Right? He's younger than A.J. Brown. Why do we...
46:49I don't know if I can ask Heath because Heath has A.J.
46:53Brown so low, but why Nico over A.J. Dave?
46:56Because I just... We've seen him as a target hog in this offense.
47:00We're assuming that A.J. Brown will be a target hog in New England and that it'll all work out just fine when
47:08in reality we are coming off a year where A.J.
47:11Brown spent the first half of the year dealing with injuries and he was terrible.
47:16And so I feel a little bit safer with Nico and I think Nico is just overall like a more steady wide receiver.
47:23You asked Heath why Rice over Nico and Heath gave two really good answers.
47:28The third is that I think there was more smash weeks there for Rasheed Rice than there will be for Nico Collins.
47:35I don't believe Nico had a game last year with more than 25 PPR points.
47:40I know Rasheed Rice had a bunch. I just feel like Nico is a solid low-end number one fantasy wide receiver.
47:46If you pencil him in for 16 PPR points, I think he's going to get that for you.
47:52I would just like it if my solid borderline wide receiver one played more than half the snaps, more than two thirds of the games.
48:00That's fair. By the way, Corey in the chat says, like Mean Girls tried to make fetch happen.
48:06I feel like the CBS Sports Fantasy guys are trying to make Nico Collins happen.
48:11I really think that's me. I want to point that out.
48:15If you feel that way, it's probably Dave. Dave has him 15th.
48:19This is a weird comment because before last season, Nico was making Nico happen.
48:23He was averaging over 17 PPR points. I don't understand what people are forgetting about how good he was averaging over 17
48:30points per game two years in a row. He was on his way there last year.
48:35No, no. It's over 18 per game if you don't azerstat it.
48:39The worst he's finished in three seasons, last three seasons, is 11th per game.
48:44He's been 8th, 9th, and 11th per game. He's been 8th, 6th, and 10th per game in non-PPR.
48:50If you get him at wide receiver nine, you're almost at the floor for Nico Collins based on the last three years.
48:57Do you guys have Nico ranked lower because you don't have confidence in Stroud?
49:01No, I have all the running backs ahead of him.
49:05So, Walker, Hampton, Gentie ahead of him. I think those guys have more upside than Nico Collins this season.
49:11I would rather have A.J. Brown. A lot of things you said about Nico, about you worried about injury for A.J.
49:17Brown. I'm worried about injury for Nico as well.
49:20I think A.J. Brown's resume is better than Nico Collins.
49:24So, what you said there in terms of what he's produced, I think A.J.
49:28Brown's been a better wide receiver over the last three or four years.
49:32And I think Brown is going to take a step forward, at least in year one, with Drake May, whereas Nico I
49:39think is going to live in this level of around 16 points per game.
49:44I think Brown can be 18 to 20 points per game just going to the Patriots.
49:49So, I like Brown better in the new environment that he's in, especially when you look at that stretch of six games,
49:56whatever it is, that he was healthy in after the complaints and scored over 19 PPR points per game during that six-game stretch.
50:04So, I think they're both very good. Obviously, I think they should be taken in round two, but I do think that
50:11we're going to get more competition for targets for Nico just with the improved play from Jaden Higgins, at least again, based on all the reports.
50:19If Tank Nico Collins, slightly. Again, these are nitpicking points between two very good players.
50:24And then I trust just Drake May a hell of a lot more than I trust CJ Schott at this point.
50:31So, I'll take AJ Brown and I think Nico is just a really solid, high, low-end number one receiver who you should
50:38just be happy to get in round two. So, depending on what you do in round one, running back wide receiver, I
50:45think you should be thrilled to get Nico Collins again in that 18 to 24 range in round two.
50:51All right, last thing. I'm not doing this, I just looked this up while you were talking.
50:57I'm not doing this too, I told you so or anything like that.
51:01But over the last three years, AJ Brown and Nico Collins are basically tied in yards per game and touchdowns per game
51:08with Nico Collins slightly ahead of him in both.
51:11And the top eight in yards per game at wide receiver over the last three years are Puka, Chase, Lamb, St.
51:18Brown, Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, AJ Brown. I just think that AJ Brown has been better than public perception acknowledges.
51:25Nico has been. I'm sorry, Nico, Nico, yes. Yeah, that's what I thought he meant.
51:30They have been so similar, it's amazing. And again, think about Nico Collins, I would guess of those top eight players, he's
51:37left the most games early with injuries. So he's probably even better than that in terms of yards per game.
51:43We've got to get true media to have an Acer stats filter.
51:47Do guys ever get to the point for you, Adam, and maybe Nico's not there yet, where you feel like, yeah, I
51:54can Acer stat it, but there's not really any reason to expect that he's going to play 17 healthy games.
52:01Oh yeah, but here's the thing, again, Dave said it, 2023 and 2024, even leaving games with injuries, he still averaged more
52:08than 17 points per game for the season. No, I'm just saying he didn't play, like he missed, even if you don't
52:15count the partial games, he missed seven games in those two seasons.
52:19Yeah, no, honestly, not really, maybe a few players, but there was one year where three of the most injury prone running
52:26backs, I can't remember who it was. Dalvin Cook was one of them, maybe McCaffrey, maybe Swift or something like that.
52:33They all stayed healthy and played pretty much a full season.
52:36He could. And I was just like, I'm done with this predicting injury stuff.
52:41Yeah, that's fair. No, but yeah, look, Higgins is another guy that I draft a lot of, and I think he falls because he gets hurt every year.
52:50You know, if you end up with Nico on your team and the only concern that you've got is that he gets
52:57hurt, it's not a bad idea at all to get Jaden Higgins because I have a feeling that if Nico does miss
53:04games, Higgins will be the one that sees the most targets.
53:08And I'm not even thinking about Tank Dell until A, he's back out there on a regular basis and B, he shows
53:15that he's just as fast as he wants to race.
53:18He's overcoming a major injury. Yeah. All right, let's talk about the tight ends here.
53:23Bowers and McBride, they are 23 and 24 in our consensus rankings.
53:27Heath, who do you like better? Bowers or McBride?
53:30I have Bowers one spot ahead of McBride. Dave, who do you like better?
53:34McBride and PPR. By how many spots? They're back to back.
53:38Okay, and Jamie, who do you like better? Also back to back, but Bowers over McBride.
53:43Fascinating. Back to back for everyone. And Dave has them the highest, 21st and 22nd.
53:48Jamie has them 24th and 25th. Heath has them 27th and 28th.
53:52How do we know when it's the right time, Heath, to go into the tight end well, take that tight end?
53:59I think probably one way you could do it is when you don't think there's a top 12 running back or a top 12 wide receiver left.
54:07But I think a lot of it really should be much different for people who aren't as excited about Tyler Warren, Sam
54:14Laporta, Kyle Pitts, Harold Fannin, Tucker Craft, whoever you want to put in that group.
54:19If you're less excited about the second-tier tight ends, then you push McBride and Bowers higher.
54:25Because it really does matter a lot if tight end six this year averages 11 fantasy points per game, as we have
54:32seen in the past, or if tight end six averages 13 fantasy points per game.
54:36Jamie, what's your take on that? How do you know?
54:40Okay, I'm going to do it now. I'm going to get that we're going to see these guys probably middle to the
54:47end of round two when everything settles. It's what you start to see is available to you in round three.
54:53Because if you think that you can get the player that you're considering in round two, in round three, then you pull
55:00the trigger on the tight end in round two.
55:03Most likely we're going to see McBride go ahead of Bowers.
55:07So if you're really in the Bowers camp, then you hope you can still get him in round three.
55:13Heath left out one name ahead of the other guys that Heath listed Tyler Warren, et cetera.
55:19So depending on how you feel about Loveland in comparison to these guys and if you want to pull the trigger early on Colston Loveland.
55:27But it obviously is very similar to what Heath said.
55:30So if you're not sold on, you get to this range of running backs of Walker, Hampton, Gentie, Henry, Barkley, and you're
55:37just like, oh, these guys are improving or they're older, et cetera, in case of Barkley coming off a bad season, and
55:44you want to pivot, and you don't love the receivers of Nico Pickens, London will be in this range, whoever you want
55:51to say, then clearly you're looking at guys that could be difference makers.
55:56Bowers, I wonder if he did not get injured in week one last year and played through that or stayed healthy and
56:03didn't try to play through that or maybe took some time off and came back at 100%.
56:08Would he have had the Trey McBride type season?
56:11Because what we saw from Bowers as a rookie was obviously unbelievable.
56:15The offensive environment last year in Las Vegas was terrible.
56:18The coach should be better. The quarterback play will hopefully be better.
56:22We know the offensive line has a chance to be significantly better.
56:26All these things factoring in, Bowers has such little competition for targets on paper.
56:31Will that change if Jalen Naylor or Trey Tucker or Jack Besch or whoever you feel or if they still go out
56:38and get maybe a Stephon Diggs or a Tyreek Hill or something like that?
56:42Does that change things? Obviously. But I think just looking at Bowers and nothing else around him.
56:48Please go back and listen to the interview we did with Scott Turner and what he said about Bowers, just the type
56:55of player that he is in playmaker and opportunities that he should have.
56:59This guy could be what Trey McBride was last year where he's just so significantly better than the field.
57:05I don't think that would be the case, but targets should absolutely be in his favor and he could lead the position
57:12in targets, receptions, receiving yards and the touchdowns were there.
57:16Then, oh my God, he could be an unbelievable special talent.
57:19That Jacksonville game that he had last season which was 40 some odd PPR points.
57:24You know the ceiling and what he's capable of.
57:27It's just incredible. Yeah, I think Scott Turner said that Brock Bowers may be the best player he's ever coached.
57:33It was something to that effect. Mentally, the way he's grasped the game is really...
57:38Compared to McCaffrey. Yeah, it was high praise and honestly, it changed the way I thought of Brock Bowers solidified my optimism for Bowers.
57:46Heath, this was your guy last year. You were super high on him.
57:50Yeah, and when he was actually healthy, he didn't really do much to discourage me from that.
57:56I do think everything Jamie said is right. I think we feel like that in a vacuum, Brock Bowers is a more
58:03talented player than Trey McBride and that's not saying anything negative about Trey McBride.
58:07It's just that's how good we think Brock Bowers is and we've talked a lot about how we think the offensive environment
58:14for McBride maybe regresses a little bit just because of how outlandish it was last year and we're hoping the offensive environment
58:22in Las Vegas is greatly improved because of better quarterback play and better coaching.
58:26The thing that you really, I think, hope for is you look at what Clint Kubiak did last year and it's not
58:33going to be the same thing because Brock Bowers is not JSN, but he just said, you know what?
58:39We have one guy who is much better than everybody else as a pass catcher like the Raiders do.
58:46We are just going to do everything we can to get him the ball a third of the time as we drop back.
58:53And if that happens with Bowers, good grief, we could get the greatest tight end season ever.
58:59Well, that's fascinating. I mean, one of the things with McBride is that, I was going to bring this up with McBride,
59:06I don't know, it's not really fair to say yet with Bowers because he only had like one healthy season and he was a rookie.
59:14But think about some of the great tight ends of this era, specifically Kelsey and Kittle.
59:19McBride doesn't really stack up with them in terms of yards, yards per catch, yards per target.
59:24You know, McBride has been around 10 yards per catch, 7.6 yards per target around there over the last three years.
59:31Kelsey was more like 13 yards per catch and nine yards per target, three yards per catch better than the best of McBride.
59:39Kittle was even better than that. Kittle was like 13 and a half yards per catch.
59:44So it's just, you know, it's just something with McBride.
59:47He's a great player, but when you think about the best tight ends, Kelsey and Kittle, those guys, if they had 160,
59:54170 targets, they might be able to turn that into 1,500 yards.
59:58McBride's not going to do that. McBride last year had 169 targets and had 1,239 yards.
60:03He also had, like I said earlier, the most touchdowns of 10 or more yards for a tight end since Eric Ebron seven years ago, I think.
60:12So I just wanted to throw that out there with McBride.
60:16He's great. He's not like Hall of Fame level.
60:19Well, he might at some point, but he's not Kelsey and Kittle.
60:22Bowers, I guess, still could be. We don't know what his efficiency will be, but that's not the strength of Trey McBride.
60:30Listen, if you get them at the right price, have one of these two guys.
60:34It's not hard to see them being one or two if they stay healthy at the position.
60:40They were essentially that in points per game last year with McBride being significantly better than the entire field.
60:46Again, 18 points per game, whatever it was, 18.1, 18.2.
60:49And then there was Bowers and Kittle in the 14 range.
60:53He was 100 total points better than Kyle Pitts at tight end.
60:57That's just not realistic to replicate on both ends.
61:00The second guy being that much farther apart and obviously him being that far ahead of the field, unless he's just force-fed targets.
61:07But you just think about everything that fell into place with him.
61:11He was having a good season with Kyler Murray.
61:14He had an exceptional season with Jacoby Brissett. Is Jacoby Brissett going to start the majority of the games for the Cardinals,
61:21who are probably going to be a bad team and may turn to Carson Beck at some point?
61:27The run game is going to be significantly better for the Cardinals because of the additions of Jeremiah Love and Tyler Algier.
61:34And then you had all this fall into place with McBride when we had Marvin Harrison play three games in the second half of the season.
61:42So now you have Harrison back. You have, again, whatever version of Michael Wilson we're going to get.
61:48And if it's the best version of Michael Wilson, then I think that's hard for all three of those guys to be successful.
61:56You've brought this up a few times, Adam, just in terms of the target share for all three of these players.
62:02So I think what we're looking at is Trey McBride is still going to be really good.
62:08There's a reason why, even for me and Heath, and I'll speak for you here if I'm wrong, tell me, but why
62:15we still think that they're going to be close and we just, we like, you know, give an edge to Bowers.
62:22This isn't, hey, crap all over Trey McBride. He's going to suck.
62:26We still think he should be late second, early third round pick, but it's just the field is better.
62:32The profile for Brock Bowers feels better and Trey McBride could just take a little bit of a step back, maybe even
62:39a big step back and still be really good.
62:42But I think you just got to take into consideration like, if you're expecting last year's Trey McBride, you're probably drafting him too soon.
62:50You shouldn't expect that. Last year's Trey McBride was one of the best tight end seasons we've seen.
62:56More than 18 fantasy points per game. With Kyler Murray, Trey McBride averaged 12.5 points per game in five games with Kyler Murray.
63:03With Jacoby Bresetti averaged 21.1 points per game. Here's my issue.
63:07It's like, I get all the arguments against McBride, at least, you down to this 2-3 turn where we have him in the rankings.
63:14Look, again, they threw so many passes. When he was on the field in the second half of the season, after Michael
63:22Wilson established himself, when all three players were on the field, they all had about a 20% target share.
63:28If you're getting a 20% target share for Trey McBride, that's a big problem.
63:32They have Jeremiah Love now. It was also 20% target share when they're leading the NFL on pass attempts.
63:38They're probably middle of the pack this year. Yeah, I mean, they still could be...
63:43Yeah, sure. But it was a really small sample size.
63:46It was basically one game's worth of routes. My issue is, Michael Wilson?
63:51Is that really the reason why I'm downgrading Trey McBride?
63:54Michael Wilson averaged 4.4 targets per game in the first 38 games of his career.
63:59And then he averaged 11 targets per game in the last eight games of his career.
64:04Harrison and Harrison. No, I know, but I already know that if it's just like Marvin Harrison and we're not really worried
64:11about any other wide receiver, then I think Trey McBride, to me, would be a middle of the second round pick because
64:18I think he would get an enormous amount of targets.
64:21If I think Michael Wilson's going to get six and a half targets per game, and Marvin Harrison is still going to be a factor.
64:30And by the way, Marvin Harrison has been the preferred end zone target for the Cardinals in each of his two years.
64:37Trey McBride did most of his end zone work when Marvin Harrison was out.
64:41That if Michael Wilson's going to be a factor, that really bumps McBride down.
64:46But really, is Michael Wilson really going to be a factor?
64:49I ask myself that all the time. I think he will be.
64:53I think he's a solid player and deserves more targets than what he got in the first 38 games of his career.
65:00Heath? Yeah, I think so I've got McBride projected for 143 targets this year over under.
65:05I think it's a great projection. I'll take the under.
65:09I'll take slightly under. 138. 142.5. And then the other question is he in his first 49 games, he scored six touchdowns on 292 targets.
65:17Yeah. Last year he scored 11 touchdowns on 169 targets.
65:20So I've got him projected for six this year.
65:23Yeah. So I'll take it. It's fine. If you're looking at the, if you're watching, they have them for eight and 154 targets.
65:30They don't really have them for that great of a season though.
65:34I mean, a thousand 80 yards have him as the number one tight end, but it's, it's, I don't know how many points per game.
65:42This projection is 1000. I've got it. Yeah. What do you think?
65:46What is it? It is 16. Okay. 15.94. Yeah.
65:49So that's to me, that's again, I said it earlier.
65:52That's a middle of the second round type of player.
65:56And I've got him at basically 14.6. So just to go back to that for you, Adam.
66:01So again, if he's 15 point, what is it?
66:04Nine, 15.9 and Bowers is 15.2 and Loveland is 14.7 and Warren is 13.8 and Laporta is 12 point.
66:10Like at what point do you feel I think for the purposes of this exercise, I'm not going to try to predict all those other tight ends.
66:19I'm just going to take what I can get because, you know, I'm just going to, I'm just going to treat it.
66:26McBride and Nico Collins are both sitting there. Yeah.
66:29Nico. You're taking Nico McBride and AJ Brown. AJ Brown, McBride and Saquon Barkley are sitting there.
66:35Barkley McBride and Derek Henry are sitting there. Henry McBride and George Pickens are sitting there.
66:40McBride. Okay. McBride and Ashton Gentey or Amar and Hampton.
66:43Yeah. The running backs, but it's, it's like, so you have Trey McBride in round three.
66:48I don't know. I think I'm pretty far. No, I think I have him pretty much in the round in the two, three turn.
66:56I was looking at your consensus rankings and Olave Higgins, Kyrin Williams.
67:00I could see McBride falling to round three if Josh Jacobs gets back into round two.
67:05See, I don't think so. I think, I think we are not so down on McBride, but we're down on McBride to
67:12the point where we are pushing him down, where I think more people will be looking for him closer to the one, two turn and early in.
67:21He's 22nd right now in fantasy pros. That's all I can say.
67:25He's 22nd? Yeah. I would have thought the same thing.
67:28I would have thought the average drafter sees what he did last year and just loves Trey McBride.
67:34I got a friend who called me yesterday or a few days ago.
67:38From the water cooler? He yelled at me for being too low on Trey McBride.
67:43He's like, bro, stop being so analytical. The guy's got a tattoo sleeve.
67:47He's a beast. He's a monster. It was funny because this is how a lot of football players and football fans think.
67:54This guy's awesome. I've seen him on red zone scoring touchdowns and being a badass and he's really good.
68:00I'm going to draft him. I kind of get that.
68:04Maybe I'm being too analytical about it, but when you start to crunch the numbers, you see the pitfalls.
68:10By the way, I should mention Dave, I don't know what happened with Dave, but he hasn't been on the show for the last 10 minutes.
68:18It's a good thing that you just mentioned it now.
68:21I know. I think the other thing, because we've talked about Drew Petzing, we've talked about the past attempts coming down.
68:28But Jacoby Brissett is 33 years old. Yeah. And just like last year, even not playing the full season was a career
68:35high across the board in basically everything. So I see where you're going with this.
68:40The only thing that, you know, and again, you and I are on the same page in terms of the tight ends.
68:47Like we're asking, we just saw Jacoby Brissett do this for Trey McBride.
68:52We're asking a 30 plus year old Kirk Cousins and an unproven Fernando Mendoza to make Brock Bowers elite.
68:58Like, I don't, like I want to throw out the quarterback argument with this because I don't think it helps Bowers.
69:05Yeah, that's interesting thinking about like, do you trust the combination of Cousins and the number one overall pick or Brissett?
69:11He had never before last year averaged 200 yards passing per game.
69:15We have to acknowledge there's a possibility that Carson Beck gets called at some.
69:20Oh, I said that. Oh, I'm sorry. And that would terrify me.
69:24Maybe it's Gordon Minshew. That would be okay. So I think the only way we see Minshew is if Jacoby Brissett gets
69:31hurt or is just absolutely terrible early in the season because I think if we get to the middle of the season
69:38and, you know, it's just the Russell Wilson benching, the, I'm trying to think other guys just got benched outright because they
69:45were, you know, not necessarily the reason why the team was losing, but obviously the team wanted to try and lose or see what else they have.
69:54And like we see Carson Beck at some point because they got to make a decision to see if that could be anything for them.
70:02So I spent over an hour on this stupid research last night and I don't know if it's helpful at all, but
70:09over the last 10 years, I tried to find players that averaged nine or more targets two straight seasons and then like
70:16McBride and then had a big drop off in targets.
70:19There weren't that many guys who went from two straight seasons or at least two straight seasons with nine or more targets
70:26and then had fewer than eight the next year that were not in their thirties.
70:31Guys in their prime, they typically like kept on going, getting those targets nine or more.
70:37If they fell, it was within the, it was like eight, eight or more.
70:41Yeah. but some guys did 36. What's that? Eight is 136.
70:45136. And some guys did though. Zach Ertz was one of them.
70:48Now he was like 29 turn 30. Zach Ertz had two huge seasons.
70:53Then he went to 6.6 targets. Darren Waller at age 30 was another guy, two huge seasons.
70:58Then he went down in targets. They added Devante Adams that year.
71:02Chris Godwin. This was a team that went from like 700 something pass attempts to 568 when they went from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield.
71:10And Chris Godwin went from two straight years with nine, nine or more targets to 7.7.
71:15So it doesn't happen that often to these guys who were in their prime, but I did find some examples of it happening.
71:23I don't want this to come across though, as if like, we're just completely crapping all over Trey McBride.
71:29Like we still think he's a really good fantasy option and somebody worthy of taking in the mid to end of round two, early part of round three.
71:38It just depends on how you want to value those players.
71:42And I think the exercise we did with you, Adam, is perfect.
71:46It's like this guy versus that guy. It's going to be the question a lot of fantasy managers come to.
71:52You ask Heath the same question, you know, just at what point do you feel comfortable taking the tight ends?
71:58It's just a matter of like, what do you think you're missing out on versus, and this is why I keep asking
72:06this, the field, which the field could be really good this year.
72:09Again, a lot of question marks with the guys after minute.
72:13Bowers. I wish again, last year because this debate might have been even better or maybe even solved for you because there
72:20could have been a chance that Bowers is just better.
72:23But yeah, look, Kyle Pitts had a great season, gets a, gets a huge coaching upgrade.
72:29Sam Laporta, great rookie season, huge coaching upgrade. Tyler Warren may lead the Colts and targets and was really good when Daniel Jones was healthy last year.
72:37Harold Fannin was great last season in the second half of the year.
72:42And even though there's target competition there, it may be awesome.
72:45Tucker Craft could be the best pass catcher for the Packers and Kittle and Kelsey, you know what they're capable of.
72:52Isaiah like being a great spot. Like this is a really good position.
72:56What at least feels like for the first time in a long time for not just potential and projections like these guys
73:03are either coming off good seasons or have great resumes.
73:06Really the only one I think, and correct me if I'm wrong, is like that we're projecting to do something that he
73:14hasn't done before, even if it's a small sample size is Isaiah likely, right?
73:18You know, of the, of the top 12 guys.
73:21Yeah. All right. Sorry. So I know we spent like half the show on Trey McBride.
73:26Do you guys think that either McBride or Bowers, if they really are drafted at the two, three turn have big downside
73:33that they could just be outright busts? No. Again, what do you define as a bust for them?
73:39I would say, you know, 13 points or less.
73:42I think if you're taking them at two, three turns a bust, but do you think they could do that?
73:49Do you think that's true? I mean, look, McBride had really bad touchdown, has a really bad touchdown history prior to last
73:56year and Bowers is still dealing with what could be a bad offense.
74:00You know, again, I like the upgrades, but it could be bad.
74:04Yeah. And, and as you said, you know, we could get a struggling, like Cam Ward is a very good, was a very good prospect.
74:12It's not like he was great in his rookie campaign.
74:15Mendoza could be like that. And Kirk Cousins is just finished.
74:19And then Carson Beck could start half the games for, for the Cardinals.
74:23By the way, when you were giving me all those names, the one that, the one that I struggled the most with versus McBride was, uh, was Gente.
74:32I don't know what it is. I just am not excited to draft Ashton Jenti this year.
74:37Ken Walker or McBride? Yeah, Walker. But here's the other thing.
74:41I haven't mentioned this yet. I personally have a big difference in philosophy when it's a two receiver league versus three receiver
74:48league in terms of taking tight ends much, much more likely to take Bowers and McBride in a two receiver league, three receiver league.
74:56I like to fill out the receivers earlier. All right.
74:59Thanks guys. Good show. We have FFT Express coming up.
75:02Um, it's, uh, 12 minutes on Trey McBride. Uh, sorry, Dave's internet crapped out on him.
75:08So sorry, we did not have him on. We will talk to you on Monday with a new week of fantasy football today episodes.
75:15Thanks for watching and listening. We'll see you later.
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