Fantasy Football Busts, Values & League Winners! | Red, White & Boom (July 4th Edition: Fantasy Football Podcast)

A.J. Brown is being considered ahead of Drake London, Justin Jefferson, and Nico Collins due to his elite efficiency metrics, high first-read target rate (42.1% in 2024), and transition to the Patriots' under-center heavy offense with Drake May and Josh McDaniels, positioning him as a potential league winner.

A.J. Brown averaged 3+ yards per route run in 2024 with the Eagles and ranks third all-time in yards per route run (behind only Puka Nacua and Tyreek Hill) and first from under center specifically at 4.4 yards per route run, suggesting significant upside in a Patriots offense that runs more under-center plays.

A.J. Brown has a 34% career end zone target rate and has never been below 21% in any season, compared to Stefan Diggs' 8% end zone target rate with the Patriots, indicating Brown is an alpha receiver who will command red zone opportunities.

A.J. Brown dominated target shares (42.1% first-read target rate in 2024) while playing alongside Devante Smith, a top-15 receiver, and now moves to the Patriots with Romeo Doubs as his only competition, positioning him for elite target volume.

A.J. Brown has been one of the absolute best in the league at creating first downs during his NFL career and had a 42.1% first-read target rate in 2024 (second only to Malik Nabers), metrics that correlate more strongly with future fantasy production than traditional stats.

A.J. Brown is positioned to lead the wide receiver position in scoring with less target competition than ever before, the best passer he's ever played with in Drake May, and a high-scoring, pass-heavy Patriots offense, unless he gets injured or significantly declines.

A.J. Brown may have knee issues; the Rams were reportedly not satisfied with his medicals, and the knee was cited as part of the reason the Eagles didn't get more in trade compensation (20th and 27th round picks), raising health concerns heading into 2026.

Dave argues Hall is overvalued at 30th overall (RB14) despite averaging only 13 PPR points per game last year, and expects him to underperform in round three because Frank Reich historically underutilizes running backs and the offense won't score many points with Geno Smith at QB.

Dave predicts Hall will start the season well against Tennessee in week one but will cost fantasy owners weeks in the second half of the year and is not worth a round three pick, suggesting round five is more appropriate.

Jacob counters that Hall showed strong passing game ability with 6.6 yards per target for his career and 7.3 last year, and may see increased involvement in the passing game if Braylon Allen stays healthy, reducing Hall's rushing workload.

Heath ranks Hall at RB22, lower than consensus which has him around RB16, and gravitates toward riskier picks like Bayshal Tootin or Cam Scadaboo due to Hall's limited upside in the Jets offense.

Caleb Williams is being drafted as QB6 at 72nd overall, 23 picks ahead of Brock Purdy (who finished top-6 QB in two of last three seasons), 24 picks ahead of Matthew Stafford (2025 MVP runner-up), and 24 picks ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Jackson Dart, making his ADP unjustifiably high relative to proven alternatives.

Caleb Williams has accuracy concerns, ranking as one of the lowest in completion percentage (only JJ McCarthy lower), and has only three goal-line carries in his career, limiting his rushing touchdown upside despite his mobility.

The analyst is drafting Loveland ahead of Trey McBride at tight end, suggesting he prefers Loveland's upside despite McBride's talent advantage.

Swift was the third least efficient in efficiency of movement in 2024 but was well above league average in 2025, and went from dead last in yards over expectation to first in the league, showing dramatic improvement under Eric Bieniemy.

Dave highlights Fannin as a boom play at 95th overall (TE8) because he averaged 11.7 PPR points per game on 6.7 targets last year and the addition of new WRs won't significantly reduce his target share.

Dave notes Fannin's ADP of 95-103rd overall is amazing value for someone who could finish as a top-five tight end, and he would take him around TE6 in full PPR.

Jacob emphasizes Fannin's elite athleticism and after-the-catch ability, noting he tied Christian McCaffrey's rookie season record for most receptions with 5+ yards gained after initial contact for any player under 22 since 2015, ahead of Mark Chase and Saquon Barkley.

Jacob notes concerns about Deshaun Watson's historical performance with tight ends under Kevin Stefanski, citing David Njoku's poor 1.22 yards per route run with Watson, and worries that new WRs Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston could reduce Fannin's targets.

Jacob would give Fannin a boost if Shadur Sanders wins the QB job in camp, noting they already have a connection with Shadur throwing to him 33% of the time last year.

Heath calls Fannin 'by far the most talented player that you can get after pick 100' and loves the value, though he notes he probably would have classified him as white rather than boom.

Josh Downs is going as WR44 at 97th overall despite running 80%+ of routes in three games last year and 78%+ of routes in six games in 2024, scoring 19.4+ PPR points in four of those six games, making him a value pick with significant upside if he gets a full-time role.

Josh Downs is expected to move outside more and get increased playing time with the Colts, and on a per-route basis he destroys cornerbacks and gets open consistently, positioning him to finish around WR24 if he gets a full-time role.

Josh Downs at WR44 (97th overall) is the value pick to get exposure to the Colts offense, which ranked #1 in the league last year when Daniel Jones was healthy, offering upside at a discount price.

Walker ranks running back 23 in explosive plays per game over his first four seasons, putting him in range with elite backs like Shaun Alexander and Brian Westbrook despite splitting a backfield.

With Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, Walker could become more consistent as a rusher, similar to how Bieniemy improved DeAndre Swift's efficiency and consistency in 2025.

Walker had 6.5 yards per rush last year when given at least one yard before contact, and only Devon Achan had a higher explosive run rate on these runs, showing elite efficiency in space.

Walker is being drafted at RB10 overall (16th overall), which aligns with analyst rankings of RB8-RB13, making him fairly valued despite questions about consistency.

Walker ranks 51st in rush success rate among running backs since entering the NFL (out of 54 qualifiers), and while some is due to offensive line, he needs to prove he can be more consistent.

Kenneth Walker ranks 51st in rush success rate among running backs since entering the NFL out of 54 qualifiers, and has lost touches throughout his NFL career, suggesting he may be a frustrating player for coaches despite his elite speed and ability to break off explosive runs.

Heath lists Mike Evans as a red (pump the brakes) at 54th overall, suggesting he's being drafted too early despite his fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

Jacob strongly disagrees with Heath's red rating on Evans, ranking him at WR20 (plus-five relative to consensus) and highlighting the upside with Kyle Shanahan, noting he and Dan Schneier did a 15-minute breakdown on Evans' historical context and potential.

At 33 years old with a history of hamstring issues, Evans is a risky bet to stay healthy and produce as the 49ers' number one receiver. He had only one game with 15+ PPR points in 2025, raising concerns about his ability to bounce back.

Dave expresses concern about Evans' age (33) and history of hamstring issues, worrying that relying on him to stay healthy in the 49ers offense is risky.

Dave notes Evans had only one game with 15+ PPR points in 2025 and is banking on a major bounce-back while staying healthy to be the 49ers' number one alpha receiver.

Evans is being drafted around ADP 50, but the analyst is hesitant to spend a top-50 pick on a player who might only play 11 or fewer games and may not see improvement in target volume with San Francisco.

Jacob has no strong opinion on Parker Washington, describing him as a 'shoulder shrug emoji' at his current ADP of 66th overall (WR32), suggesting fair value.

Judkins is positioned as a boom player with the potential to score 10+ touchdowns annually, especially with the Browns adding fullback Mike Burton and improving their offensive line.

The Browns showed last year they believe in leaning on Judkins in the run game, and with Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, they should maintain at least a 50% rush rate in competitive games.

Despite averaging only 0.4 yards before contact per rush last year (dead last among 250+ rush qualifiers since 2012), Judkins is considered one of the best running backs in his class and could still be productive with improved offensive line play.

Judkins is being drafted well below other talented second-year running backs like Devon Henry, Jeremiah Love, and Breece Hall, making him a relative value despite concerns about the Browns' offensive environment.

The Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL, which could help Judkins stay in competitive games and receive 22+ carries per game.

Odunze represents good value at wide receiver 29 with a 23% target share in his first 12 games last year, excellent pedigree, and a strong offensive system, making round five the right landing spot.

Odunze had a 23.7% target share in the first 12 games, significantly higher than D.J. Moore's 16.6%, and was on pace for 77 targets before his injury.

Odunze has the eighth most end zone targets per game of any wide receiver over the last two years, tied with Drake London and ahead of several elite receivers, showing he's Caleb's primary red zone target.

Laporta could potentially outscore Trey McBride, making him a viable alternative at the tight end position with more upside.

McBride's 694 routes run last year (121 more than the next closest tight end) is not replicable, and his per-route efficiency doesn't look special, raising concerns about his production sustainability.

McBride's per-route efficiency doesn't look special, and as an accumulator who gets short targets rather than winning downfield or creating yards after catch, he may not be able to maintain elite efficiency if volume decreases.

The analyst is nervous about McBride's 2026 outlook and sees clear paths to more upside with other tight ends like Colson Loveland or Sam Laporta, who could easily outscore him.

Zach Charbonnet ranks in the top 20 in rush success rate playing behind the same offensive line as Kenneth Walker, and was one of the few running backs in the league last year who gained positive yards when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, a skill shared only with Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson.

Charbonnet ranks in the top 20 in rush success rate while playing behind the same Seahawks offensive line as Kenneth Walker, suggesting Walker's lower success rate is more about individual performance than line quality.