0:00Big show for you here today, and I mean it, it is a massive show because we, as usual, have Nate Tice
0:06here for a big-time breakdown on quarterbacks who are failing their ecosystems, or are they being failed by their ecosystems?
0:12We talk Patriots and Drake May, we talk CJ Stroud and the Texans, Jordan Love and the Sinking Packers, then we preview
0:18Thursday Night Football Steelers-Browns, some key fantasy takeaways in that one.
0:21And then, new weekly segment, Justin Boone joins the show for the Flex Fit Check.
0:25We talk a ton of guys who have been disappointing but might rebound this week, keyword being might.
0:30All that and more coming up on today's show.
0:33Let's get into it. What's going on, everyone? I'm Matt Harmon.
0:36Welcome to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, and it is a hell of a day to talk ball.
0:40We got a big, big show for you here today, and joining me for the first part of this show is our guy, Nate Tice.
0:47Nate, what's going on, man? Not too much. I had a nice little old man moment last night.
0:52It was a young man, old man, me trying to be a young man.
0:56I was like, I'm going to play a video game.
0:59I'm going to buy a new video game. And I was so excited.
1:03Video game's not even out yet. I had myself all situated, got my water filled up, got all situated.
1:08Xbox here on the desk, like music going. I'm like, I'm going to enjoy myself for two hours while the kids are asleep.
1:14Video game's not out until Thursday. Okay. So, yeah, that's not a nice moment there.
1:19But yep, reminded me of my age, but I'm doing great.
1:22Great to see you, Matt. Well, you know what?
1:24At least you intended to take some time away from work that you're doing better than me.
1:29You're doing better than what I ended up doing.
1:31I ended up watching the film. I ended up watching the Chiefs dolphins.
1:35I was like, I'm in my office anyways. Might as well watch some Chiefs dolphins.
1:39So yeah, that's what I did. I wish I was making that up.
1:43Oh, no, I totally was not a brag. I was that's a sick.
1:46No, I was at this desk charting games until 11 p.m.
1:50by accident last night, which, you know, is not what I wanted to be doing.
1:54I wanted to be in bed by then. But you know what?
1:57That is because we are dedicated to the game of football.
2:00We love the game. We love you people. And we are here to give you some good information because we've been grinding all this tape.
2:07OK, so today with Nate in the first part of the show, we are going to do some of our usual things here on the Wednesday show.
2:15We're going to talk quarterbacks being failed by their ecosystems or are they failing their ecosystems?
2:19Yeah, we're talking struggling quarterbacks here to start. Then we're going to get into our Thursday Night Football preview Steelers at Browns.
2:25Speaking of questionable quarterback play, and then we're going to say goodbye to Nate because Justin Boone is going to join me for the first flex fit check.
2:33Yes, I will miss you, Nate. But the good news is I no longer have to ask you, like, would you start Tony Pollard in fantasy football?
2:41And I know Boone will come in throwing 105 miles an hour just to close that close it out strong.
2:46So I'm not too worried. Boone's the best. Yeah, Boone is the best.
2:50And you no longer have to shovel that garbage.
2:52We'll let Boone do that because he's going to have a real strong take on whether you should start this goofball or that goofball in fantasy.
3:00But speaking of goofballs and speaking of things not going so well, let's get into our main topic of the show today.
3:06I wanted to talk to you, Nate, because number one, I value your quarterback opinion perhaps higher than anybody else about these
3:12quarterbacks who are maybe failed by their ecosystems or are their ecosystems failing them.
3:16But one of the reasons I wanted to ask you about this, Nate, because I think you're pretty measured on this stuff.
3:22And quarterback discourse is so poisonous. It's so toxic.
3:24And I know you hate it. We can all see the hate on your face right now if you're watching with us
3:30here on YouTube, even just thinking about whatever tweet you saw two hours ago that really bothered you about a quarterback.
3:36I'm sure you got maybe a few in the chamber here, but I wanted to have this conversation actually because we'll go
3:42through the specifics and everything and try to figure this out and how we can get some better fantasy play out of these offenses for sure.
3:50But it has been kicking around in the back of my head, Nate, that if we even have to ask the question, is the ecosystem failing these guys?
3:57Do we pay quarterbacks too much money? This is a strange way to frame the question because my initial thought is like,
4:04no, when you pay the quarterback, it's worth it because great quarterbacks are really hard to find and great quarterbacks are the most valuable thing in sports.
4:11But if we're going to sit here and say like, well, yeah, insert quarterback here is really, really good.
4:16And the environment is just failing them like they need the environment to cooperate.
4:20Are we actually overvaluing quarterbacks or am I galaxy braining this here in week four of the NFL season?
4:26I don't think we're overpaying, but I think we're overpaying some, especially one in Tampa Bay and one that was in Miami.
4:32You know, there's some that I did think that's like, but there's the wilderness.
4:36It's a denominator thing. There's just not many guys that can generally operate an NFL offense for 16, 17 weeks.
4:41You know, that that's just what it is, that it's a supply and demand.
4:45So if we're not going to pay him, somebody will, you know, somebody will probably pay him or pay him that amount
4:51that they are seeking because we just, we got to find some competence.
4:55I know case Keenum is in the news right now.
4:58Remember the Vikings, they were doing everything possible to bring Kirk cousins and giving them three years guaranteed deal back in the
5:04day to move on from case Keenum. Like competence is only so much and you need guys that can somewhat move the needle.
5:10And I know we're obsessed with who's the lead.
5:13I mean, this goes back years and years. Who's the lead who's tier two and everything.
5:17If you are what I call tier two or even just a high end tier three, that is worth paying at least
5:23market value because, and I know some of these guys are going to get paid more than market value.
5:29Some of it too is just next man up.
5:31And that's just some of these guys are represented by the same agent.
5:35Like there's a lot of other variables that go into this and also you just, I'm just the NFL look at college right now.
5:41Like just right now, how much those guys are getting paid?
5:45Because if we don't pay him, they can just transfer and pay someone else.
5:48And also they're making them. I mean, watch Oklahoma right now.
5:51John may tear. They won't bench him because this whole off season, they've told everyone he's the face of the program.
5:57He's the face of the program. And now he is just truly nuking every one of their games.
6:02And now it's like, well, shoot, they've kind of created their own mess.
6:06And you see that with other quarterbacks as well.
6:08So I get where the question's coming from. And the answer is yes, there are some, but generally I do not think
6:15so because I just think the denominator is so small of how many guys on the planet Earth can play this position.
6:21Yeah, I'm kind of being devil's advocate here as I'm asking this question because I think I generally agree with you that
6:27quarterbacks obviously most important position in sports. If you're not going to pay him, someone else is going to pay him.
6:33And a lot of these times, and I think this can be a tough question when you say it's like, well, okay, you have this guy.
6:40You're going to do any better than him? And sometimes the answer is, well, so I'm just interested in something different.
6:46Maybe only one way to find out. But most coaches don't want to find out.
6:50Most coaches are cowards. And that is what it is.
6:53And cowards for good reason because the wilderness is very scary.
6:56But let's get into some of these specifics. And the first one, Jordan Love.
7:00Is Jordan Love being failed by the ecosystem or is he failing the ecosystem?
7:04I think this is a definitive answer that this is a brutal, brutal environment.
7:08Like look at this depth chart that we're showing here right now.
7:11Just to give some of the updates on the Packers since last time we've spoken on this podcast, Jaden Reed is now on IR.
7:18He is officially out for the season. Really, I mean, a neck injury is so scary and so serious.
7:23I'm not surprised that he's out for the season.
7:25The offensive line has deteriorated to this point that they're signing Mekhi Becton off the street.
7:30We'll see how that works. So, Nate, I think we know the answer to this question.
7:34But what are your thoughts on whether Jordan Love is failing the Packers or are the Packers failing Jordan Love?
7:40Right now, the Packers are failing Jordan Love. It's not like it's been like this always.
7:44I think they had some pretty good circumstances the last couple of years.
7:48But right now, this is just the given of it.
7:51This is just the situation. The O-line wasn't high to begin with.
7:54Like I don't think anyone was. The scheme was going to help it out.
7:58But now it just has all fallen apart. And like right now, they're just hanging on by a thread.
8:03When they're bringing in like 15 guys to try and find five starters, they essentially had like 15 guys in the building
8:09at one point with workouts, practice squad. Like just that.
8:12So many bodies. And they're just trying to find warm bodies.
8:15Laken Tomlinson is kind of one of those harbingers of doom.
8:18If he's on your offensive line, you kind of know what you're getting now.
8:22That's kind of like not a good thing at this point in time.
8:26And the stats bear this out. Right now, Jordan Love is an aggressive quarterback.
8:30He also does not take sacks. Like that is something that's so cool about his play.
8:34He throws stuff away. He's big, strong. He's also very smart.
8:37Knows when to get rid of the ball and when to be aggressive.
8:41Through three weeks. I looked this up since 2013 because that's when True Media's data kind of sets.
8:46You know, it's kind of more reliable. He is the most hit quarterback in NFL history through three weeks since 2013.
8:52Period. The most hit guy. Like if you include hits and sacks, he is the most hit guy.
8:57If you look at rate stats, it's like 10th or 11th.
9:00But still one of the most hit guys. And on top of it, it's not like they have a run game.
9:06They're like, hey, they just got passed fewer times and just run the ball a little bit.
9:10They can't do that. I mean, even when the run's working, Marshawn Lloyd is taking a hard right turn as opposed to just.
9:17It's like the worst case, DeAndre Swift. It was just hard right turns and running himself into contact with see if Caleb Johnson gets going.
9:24But again, that run game, even with guys like Zeitler, who's smart and has just been a longtime vet.
9:29He didn't look great in Tennessee last year. Tomlinson, again, hasn't been kind of good for three or four years.
9:35They truly bought Tomlinson in because he quote unquote knows the system.
9:38But it's, you know, Zeitler is maybe going to be.
9:41Zeitler is going to be better than what they've been trotting out there.
9:44And it might be going to my crap to not crap theory.
9:48But it's not exactly where I don't think is even he's like maybe average.
9:52I'm not even going to say a good starter, but it might be better.
9:56But again, that bears out with the stats is that their run game is porous right now.
10:00On top of it, Jane Reed, who gets some of those handoffs, too.
10:04Now he's out. That was something that alleviates some of the run game.
10:08And now the passing game, Jordan Love is taking some huge shots.
10:11And I don't mean shot plays. I'm talking about just getting decleted.
10:14Like it looks like a varsity blues highlight reel.
10:17But really, it's just it's pretty rough right now.
10:19The circumstances are pretty rough. And that's with Christian Watson playing great.
10:23I think Golden kind of having some up and downs, but coming along to what Golden said now is kind of building up.
10:29Tucker Craft is kind of a weird case right now, but I think that's more circumstances of the offense than anything.
10:35So, yeah, it's a really, really rough front right now.
10:38Probably the worst in the league right now. Yeah, they're paying for the sins of kind of relenting to the, hey, let's
10:44cut the receiver room down to three guys. You know what I'm saying?
10:47And I say this as someone that hated the receiver rotation for a long time.
10:52It's like, we'd be really nice if you just had three guys.
10:55The problem is two of the three guys have just had a ton of injuries.
10:59Christian Watson, of course, we know his injury history.
11:02But, yeah, Jaden Reed has now – this is two seasons in a row that are just pretty much lost years due to injuries, which just sucks.
11:09I mean, there's nothing you can do about that.
11:12But, you know, now you're starting Sky Moore in the slot for the rest of the season.
11:16And, like, 2022 Matt Harmon thinks that's interesting. 2026 Matt Harmon does not think that's very interesting.
11:21And Sky Moore was targeted on, like, 27% of his routes against the Falcons on Thursday night.
11:26And that's going to be the rest of the way.
11:29There's no Dontavian Wicks to kind of come in here and be like, all right, well, we got someone to sort of elevate this situation.
11:36It's a really rough receiver room. And the receiver room is not even close to the biggest problem here.
11:41You really felt, Nate, on Thursday night, the difference – what it makes for a quarterback.
11:45People make fun of the run game and, oh, you know, rushing is less efficient than passing.
11:50It doesn't really move – whatever. All that kind of 2015-2016 Twitter talk.
11:54But you really felt the difference between having a great run game for a quarterback and not having one on Thursday night.
12:00The fact that – I don't really know how we quantify this, but a quarterback feeling comfortable because of the down and
12:06distances that they're in is just so, so, so valuable.
12:09And Penix is consistently in positive down and distance situations ahead of the sticks.
12:13And the Packers are just never that way. You know, when you're constantly in second and ten, third and eight, I mean,
12:19yeah, teams are going to pin their ears back, rushing the passer, and they can do it against this offensive line right now.
12:25Yeah, they're averaging 8.1 yards to go on third down right now.
12:29The only ones – that's 28th in the league.
12:31And the only ones worse are the Eagles, which, you know, we can talk about with their early downs, which we will.
12:37Dolphins, which is like no one expected them to be great this year.
12:41The Bucs, which is some of that's penalties, some of that's Baker putting them in bad situations because I actually think the run game's been decent.
12:48And then the Ravens are a weird one, but the Ravens – that's actually been penalties more than anything.
12:53And actually, you know, they've been able to run the ball and then pass the ball in early downs as well.
12:59So they're actually dead last, but they don't have a ton of third downs.
13:03Like they only have 12 third and long attempts, which is third and seven yards plus.
13:08Wow, the Packers have 21 through three weeks. So that, you know, so it's just that they haven't been in third down
13:14a lot, but when they are, it's long as opposed to the Packers who are in third down a lot.
13:19And on top of it, it's third and long.
13:22Like the Packers last year – and this can juice up some of like Love's EPA numbers, which, you know, I know
13:28he's always going to be high up there. I should say just Love, I should say their offense.
13:33They were fine getting in third down last year because they were getting third and two, third and three over and over.
13:39Watch the Browns game that I believe they played last year.
13:42Panthers, I think, were another one. They kind of did so many third, two, third, and threes, and they were fine with it.
13:49They could do a little jab run game or they can kind of bait you and then Jordan Love would do a shot play.
13:55They're kind of their offensive flow. While this year, it's more these are the third and long.
14:00So it's not what they want. This is not the offensive flow.
14:03The flow is bad right now. So it's – and upon rewatch, there's not a lot of silver linings where I'm like,
14:10hey, it's going to get better this way. Actually, it's more like they're putting Band-Aids over bullet holes right now.
14:15Yeah. I mentioned my offensive efficiency score. They're 30th in that.
14:18The Packers. The Packers are 30th because – and they're going to put up a lot.
14:23And this is where it's difficult to parse this from reality and fantasy because the fact that they have so many drives
14:29and pass attempts and they are still playing with a lot of pace, you're going to get numbers for Matthew Golden.
14:35You're going to get numbers for Christian Watson. Yeah.
14:37But they're 29th in percentage of drives that end in a score right now.
14:4129th. The Green Bay Packers. They're 29th. And I wonder, Nate, if it actually could end up getting worse for some of these guys in fantasy.
14:48Like, it's week four and we're talking about this offensive line is a mass unit that's not getting better.
14:54I don't even think if Josh Jacobs comes back, and that's obviously a big if, I don't think he's saving this run game.
15:00To me, it's just – Marshawn Lloyd's not good.
15:03I mean, we showed the tweet from Ian Hart.
15:05It's not long ago where it's like, Marshawn Lloyd seemed like – drafting him seemed like a good idea three weeks ago.
15:11Yeah, it seemed like a good idea drafting him until we saw him play football.
15:15That was obviously – Exactly. I don't mean to be mean, but he just looks like a guy that's had a lot
15:21of injuries and hasn't had a lot of time to gain confidence and momentum.
15:25As a rusher, it just is what it is.
15:28Unfortunately, again, suffered through a lot of injuries. Career has probably gone asunder now at this point.
15:33I don't think Josh Jacobs is saving this run game.
15:35And if they lose a guy like Christian Watson and some of the injury analysts on Twitter were seeing him maybe kind
15:42of pull up at the end of that Falcons game on a route.
15:45I don't know if he's on the injury report or anything, like if he's going to miss games.
15:50But, man, if he goes down, this is a really tough situation to look at.
15:54But, I mean, it's every stat. Like, I mean, I've even pulled up just like their stats for over the last three years.
16:01Three downs in pot or three plays in pot, their rate this year is almost 30%.
16:05It's 29 and change. Last year it was 16%.
16:08They're just like every stat you look at. Average time to throw, which Jordan Love is a master at.
16:13Again, waiting, maximizing that as much time as he can get, drifting.
16:16Average time to throw is 2.91 seconds last year.
16:19It's 2.5 this year. And they have the same – I already mentioned this.
16:23They have the same kind of third down play percentage.
16:26But, again, that distance has gone up dramatically. It went from 6.4 yards last year to 8.1.
16:30So, again, it's just all these situations are so much harder.
16:33They're converting third downs at 27.8%. So, that's a tough way to live.
16:37If, like, it works for them before when they're getting third and shorts and they have a run game to rely on.
16:43Now, you want Jordan Love hunting, big plays. That's what makes Jordan Love great.
16:47You avoid sacks and he hunts big plays. If he doesn't have the time to hump big plays, it's really, really tough.
16:53They play the Bucs this week, which I think is going to be an ultimate gash or be gash like the Vikings
16:59game was, which I think will be – I'm calling it a loser leaves town match.
17:04But that's what it just kind of feels like.
17:06Like, teams right now, too, this is another little stat.
17:09Teams right now are playing cloud. When teams are not scared of your run game.
17:13Right now, they're getting cloud at almost 35%. Last year, it was 21%.
17:17The year before that, it was 15%. So, teams are just going, hey, we're not going to let you get big plays because you can't run for crap.
17:25And we don't care. We're going to just let you do this.
17:28Like, we do not care what you do. It reminds me a lot of KOC's first year in Minnesota.
17:33Of course, he had Justin Jefferson, and they got a lot of cover, too.
17:37They just could not run the ball at all because the O-line was porous and Dalvin Cook was on the decline.
17:43That's what it really feels like right now. So, like you mentioned, they're going quicker, which is going to rack up some counting stats.
17:50Christian Watson and or Golden will always have a big play because love will keep hunting them.
17:55But it's just the down-to-down efficiency is going to be dire.
17:58So, it can be games like the Vikings game where it's like there are some highs early, but how quickly that spiraled
18:04in the second half and in the fourth quarter, that's what a lot of these games are going to feel like.
18:10Or less that. I could throw a million stats.
18:12They're all just in decline. Again, EPA per rush.
18:15Again, success rate is usually what I look at, especially in the run game.
18:18EPA per rush, though. Two years ago, it was neutral.
18:21Zero. Last year, it's negative .03, which is essentially neutral.
18:24This year, it's negative .38. Every time they run the ball, it's worth negative .4 points.
18:29Every time they run the ball. And that's such a big part of their offense.
18:33It's a jab-jab haymaker offense. They have no jab.
18:35So, it's haymakers and then just taking shots to the chin.
18:38So, it's a tough, tough way to live. So, yeah, I think it's the ecosystem.
18:42Again, I know general fans think Jordan Love still has stuff to prove.
18:46He does not to me. This guy is a locked-in top-eight quarterback.
18:49That's how I view him. If anything, I want to climb higher with him.
18:53But it's not really – I'm not making that argument right now because I know how this year is going to go.
18:59But he is one of the dudes. He is a locked-in Tier 2 guy.
19:03He does a lot of the right things. It's just – it's going to be really high and low just based on who their matchups are every week.
19:11Unless these guys like Tomlinson and Zeitler and Becton can come in here and save – your point, awful to average, right?
19:17Crap to not crap. That's the hope here. Unless that happens and it happens quickly, I really do worry if this is
19:23going to get worse before it gets better. Because I'm with you.
19:27I'm generally a big Jordan Love fan. But I don't say if you're going to give one real critique to him is
19:33that he is such a big play hunter that sometimes I think maybe take the layups and matriculate the offense down the field.
19:39And he does struggle with that part of it.
19:42And you mentioned that. Teams are going to run a ton of cloud.
19:45Both of his receivers, Golden and Watson, neither one of them are really layup guys.
19:50They're both big play shooters as well. Downfield guys.
19:52Yep. At this point, Tucker Craft's got to get healthy because he can be a layup guy.
19:57But do I really want him taking the layups to Skymore?
20:00I wonder if Skymore can turn into a sneaky PPR scam at this point.
20:04I think he might. I wonder if – and again, like I said, 27 targets per route last week.
20:09He actually doesn't look terrible either, which is actually – I will say about Skymore.
20:13I'm not the biggest Skymore guy, but he actually is doing decent things.
20:17And this is the other thing. This week is going to be hilarious because it's Todd Bowles.
20:22So, it's going to be the funniest game ever.
20:24I really do think so. Then they got the Bears, who I know what they played Monday night, but that defense still isn't great.
20:31You should, in theory, be able to run on them.
20:34But again, that's going to be a stoppable force versus a movable object.
20:37But Dennis Allen will bring heat, so it's more gash or be gash.
20:41Then they got the Cowboys, who actually – the Cowboys' run defense is a little bit better.
20:46But you can throw on them. And then they got the Lions, who are allowing the highest success rate against outside receivers in the entire NFL.
20:53Then they got the beat-up Panthers. And then they got the Patriots, whose defense actually is playing pretty well right now.
20:59They got other issues. So, it's actually a – should be a good stretch of the schedule right now.
21:04But I'm still like, we'll see. You know, we'll see.
21:07I feel like it's going to be very boom-bust, even against some of these kind of softer defenses.
21:12I never thought I'd say this, but the Packers might turn into one of those teams that you don't watch, and you
21:18just let the fantasy points rack up, especially with that schedule.
21:21Because, yeah, it might be a fourth quarter sort of situation.
21:24So, yeah, I think we're pretty on the same page here that love failed by the ecosystem less so than the alternative.
21:30Okay, let's get to our next quarterback here, CJ Stroud.
21:33Talk about a guy, Nate, who has just – I mean, another guy that's like very polarizing on the internet.
21:39Another guy that is, I think, pretty clearly been let down by his environment.
21:43I'm not going to say he's totally blameless all throughout the entirety of his career.
21:47But right now, these last two weeks, without Nico Collins, what do you want this team to do?
21:52I was encouraged in week one with the Texans rushing success rate.
21:55They now are 32nd in stuff rate on their running back runs.
21:5828.8% of their runs go for zero or negative yardage.
22:01And that is last in the league by a decent bit.
22:04The Colts are actually 24%. Jets, 23%. The Texans are 29%.
22:07Nearly 30% of their runs go nowhere. And that ain't getting better.
22:11Their two running backs are who they are. The offensive line for maybe the third year in a row is different, but it's definitely not better.
22:18And the outside receivers without Nico Collins, I can't – it's one of the worst I've ever seen.
22:23It's not good. It's names I'm like, who is that guy again?
22:26I know Xavier Hutchinson. I know the Kayshawn Booty, but then beyond them and who are getting a lot of reps right now.
22:33Yeah. And I'm like, okay, okay. Where's Jalen Knoll?
22:35Can't you guys dial up some plays to Jalen Knoll?
22:38I'm still wondering why they can't dial up plays to Jalen Knoll.
22:41Jalen Knoll's done nothing. And when I watch – and so one of those things where it's like, all right, I'm going to listen to coaches.
22:49What do you think of them? I'm like – I watch them though and I'm like, this guy's got juice.
22:54He's doing the right thing. What am I missing here?
22:57What am I – I still think it's so bizarre, but I will say.
23:01So I think, of course, Nico Collins is the alpha.
23:04He is the ace. He can be a true ace.
23:06I actually think Straub's been playing decent. Like he – I do – upon rewatch, he's doing a lot of the right things.
23:13He's trying to do a lot of the right things right now.
23:16And even their down-to-down stuff, like I use that suplex rate, they're 12th right now.
23:20They are just a team that – them and actually the team that's kind of like their – part of their tree,
23:26the Patriots, kind of feel the same way to me where it's like down-to-down, it's actually a little bit better than you think.
23:33And then just catastrophic mistakes. It's just failed fourth downs, turnovers in the red zone, failed drives in the red zone, a
23:39missed kicks at the worst time or drop snaps at the worst time.
23:43But Straub's success rate is up this year, like pretty decently so.
23:46He's pushing the ball more, pretty decently so. And actually one of these weird stats that actually I think is indicative of
23:52how Straub's playing compared to maybe other guys that use this, sacked yards – or yards lost per sack.
23:57I always think that was Straub's big issue is when he got sacked.
24:01He got sacked hard. Like he lost a lot of yards.
24:04And so that was him trying to do more.
24:07And this year he's cut it down by over a yard.
24:10So it's one of those things where it's like, wait, that's a weird negative stat.
24:14But I'm talking – really when you watch him, he's getting the ball away pretty quickly and he's stepping up.
24:19And I always think that's the big thing with Straub is that he does the Madden drift when he's not feeling it
24:26and he's trying to do too much. He's stepping up and scrambling a little bit at a rate that I kind of like right now.
24:33So I can't sell fully on the Texans as a whole and especially with Nico Collins coming back.
24:38Even if the run game's shite and even if the defense has just been kind of weird, I still think defense is good.
24:44Like I still see that pass rush turning up.
24:46But just it's not as dominant and like take your breath away as maybe as I anticipated.
24:51But maybe it'll get better because they're kind of feeling it a little bit right now.
24:56You mentioned that they're dead last in success rate or whatever, bottom three in rushing success rate.
25:00It's an improvement over the last two years. Their running backs are at 34%.
25:04Last year it was 30%. The year before that was 31%.
25:07It's actually better than it's been, but it's still like – yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:11It's pretty rough. No, yeah. Their success rate is better than it has been, but their stuff rate is like horrendous.
25:17Just again, they have a ton of runs that go for zero or negative yards.
25:21Yeah, but they'll at least convert some short-yarded stuff.
25:24I wonder how much of that is still from week one when Dave Montgomery punched in a couple of touchdowns, the whole deal there.
25:31I would say, by the way, on Montgomery, he was a great sell high after week one.
25:35If he has one more game where he finds his way into the end zone, I'd ship him off as soon as you can.
25:42Same. I just don't think he fits with what this situation is right now.
25:46I don't know that Woody Marks is going to make it any better, but it's one of those we got to try something else type of situations.
25:53So, Marks is still a decent bench hold in fantasy.
25:56But, yeah, it's really rough right now. Good point, though, on Stroud.
26:00And I think he definitely has been – he's been solid so far, and he's kind of taken what's there.
26:05There's just not a lot there. I mean, these dudes on the boundary can't get open.
26:10To your point about Jalen Knoll, he must be, I don't know, like smoking cigs in meetings or something like that.
26:15That's the – it's either that or the Texans are stupid.
26:18Like, I'm sorry to be that reductive about it, but when I watch Knoll, he makes plays.
26:23He was – I think he got open as a rookie.
26:26I know you've clipped some of this stuff, too, like especially on these big post routes where they need explosive plays.
26:32Yes. It's just one of the more – I don't get it.
26:35And I've even asked, like, Dane Brueger, like because I was curious.
26:39I was like, is there character stuff? I don't know.
26:42He's like, no, everyone loved him. He's like, what am I missing?
26:45Like, it's – and he's willing to block? Like, it's a bizarre thing.
26:49They would rather dial up plays for other guys than him.
26:52And like – It's so weird. I have to be – I know.
26:55I just don't get it. Like, not that they're making a lot of good decisions down there anyways.
27:00You know, again, the run game stuff is so weird.
27:03And that's actually to talk about your David Montgomery point.
27:06Like, not to extrapolate from one play, but their failed fourth down this past week, the failed fourth and one, was, I thought, a bad read by Montgomery.
27:14It wasn't great blocking. Again, this team should not be running zone.
27:17But he bounced down the outside when he should have planted his foot and just stuck his nose in there.
27:23And that was one of those where it's like, David, like, come on.
27:26You know, he's supposed to be the smart runner.
27:29Like, I was – he was kind of teach tape running back.
27:32And when he's missing holes, it's like, what are you guys getting taught down?
27:36Like, what's going on with you? It's like, it's a black hole.
27:39It's a spiral on offense down there. So, again, in the NFL, when coaches feel heat and they – maybe it's kind of push comes to shove.
27:47All right, maybe we'll see something this week. I thought last week would be the get-right game, but it wasn't the get-right game at all.
27:54So, maybe, like, they feel that heat going on the three.
27:57You'd hope so. I mean, yeah. I don't know.
27:59Again, I know I've always been kind of a Stroud kind of optimist and a believer.
28:04I'm not – I've kind of settled on him and kind of that quarterback 12 to 16 range.
28:09It's all arbitrary. But I feel kind of, like, still good about that and how he's playing this year.
28:14That's exactly – I feel that's exactly how he's played this year, that 12 to 16 range.
28:19And actually, the stats bear that out. Yeah, we essentially just need to see, like, a big week from Nico Collins in
28:25week four against the Dallas Cowboys, which sounds like he's going to play this week.
28:29It's – they're desperately in need of it. And just last point on the defense, Nate, before we move on, and this
28:35is a problem for Dave Montgomery in fantasy too, because part of the theory of the case for Montgomery was, well, they're
28:41going to be in all these, you know, positive game scripts because they're going to be ahead.
28:46Like, he's going to be nursing leads because of the defense.
28:49I really think right now, and I've said this on the show a couple times this week, in today's NFL, you can be great on the defensive line.
28:57Obviously, we all want to be great on the defensive line.
29:00Cornerbacks, which is – I mean, Texans, check, check, check, check, check.
29:03But if you have bad linebackers and safeties, teams can pick on you, and it doesn't really matter how good you are.
29:10And Aziz Alshier is week-to-week with a groin injury.
29:12Dave – Reed Blankenship has been a disappointment at safety.
29:15Henry Toa Toa is it – he's missed some time.
29:18I'm like – I think they're definitely a good defense, but I don't know that they're going to be one of the
29:24best defenses right now because of that weakness specifically.
29:26You know who's the worst team against the slot?
29:29It's the Cowboys. If they don't get Jalen Hurts this week, I got to start going like, all right, what the hell are you guys doing?
29:36Because it's like this is the week to get young juice going.
29:39Like, they are the worst defense against the Cowboys.
29:42I have Cowboys defensive theories, by the way. They are actually pretty good out of base when they're in four DBs.
29:48So, again, if I had gotten on this Texan staff when I had all the receiver injuries kind of going, why are
29:54you running a bunch of 11 personnel with all these receiver injuries?
29:57Well, you know, shouldn't you be going with a bunch of tight ends?
30:01Because they actually have a decent crop of tight ends.
30:04I know. No one is a star, but decent, like decent.
30:07And they didn't. But then actually this week, they should be going 11 personnel.
30:11Like, it's kind of one of those like, yeah, I got on you, but not this week.
30:15Actually, you should keep the Cowboys in sub. And I've had some kind of Cowboys defensive theories and stuff.
30:21Because when they're in base, Caleb Downs is their deep safety.
30:24When they're in sub, he's their slot. And their safeties suck.
30:27And now they have a bunch of injuries at safety.
30:30But Downs at safety is pretty good. And actually, I think that's going to be his best spot, not the slot.
30:35So, again, that's kind of theories in the linebackers.
30:38Until Overshawn comes back, D-Winters is a target. I mean, the Ravens got after it over and over, putting Zay Flowers at the three spot.
30:45So, it's one of those where, again, these are these weeks that I'm like, all right, do you know your personnel?
30:51And if they don't do those, because I think there's clear natural answers, is what I always call it.
30:56I think they have clear natural answers to attack this defense.
30:59And if they just kind of just keep running it down the throat and just doing basic zone runs, I'm going to
31:05be like, okay, I'm done with you guys. Like, if you can't get score points against this defense, okay, I'm done with you guys.
31:12Excited to see how they dial up some non-explosive plays to Xavier Hutchinson from the slot.
31:16Should be fun. Speaking of non-explosive plays, the Patriots made a lot of explosive plays last season.
31:21We have not seen a lot of that so far this year.
31:25This is probably our most complicated question here, Nate, although maybe you think it's an easy answer.
31:29Very fascinated to talk about this. Drake May, is he failing the ecosystem or is the ecosystem failing him?
31:35And where does the slider on that scale fall?
31:37That's the last point is the key. I would say it's 80% the system and then him just botting them out, having
31:43the worst plays at the worst times. So, it's like he's not helping.
31:47He's spiraling at the worst times. I even broke down, I've looked at it, I'm writing about it right now, actually.
31:53But it's, I mean, pick a stat right here.
31:55All right, how about this? Speaking of Packers receivers.
31:58So, this is how I've kind of too long didn't read.
32:01The offense is archaic. It's very sound. I always say this, but it's very archaic.
32:05And if you watch it against the Jags, it was more striking than ever.
32:09Watching the Jags with their motion and moving, bumping guys, changing the number count at the snap.
32:14Run game diversity. Just, oh, we're going jumbo on this play.
32:17We're getting Brenton Strange at fullback and running play action.
32:19Just diversity and ideas and nothing new. The same concepts that the Patriots run.
32:23But they just window dress them so much better.
32:26So, it's one of those that, like the interception that May had in the end zone.
32:30Which was, I think this is, that's the play that I've kind of been going.
32:34If you want a too long didn't read to what's going on right now.
32:38That play was, first off, the Jaguars players said they knew exactly what was coming.
32:43Because that's the only formation, that's the only play they run out of that formation.
32:47So, not a good start. On top of it, they have Stevenson in there.
32:51As much as I like Ramon J. Stevenson in real football terms more than most other people.
32:55That play needs speed to the flat. So, that's a Henderson play.
32:59So, they have Stevenson in on a play that should be Henderson.
33:02Okay. So, it's a front, it's a bootleg. Matt Collins, who's only been there, like, he should be only there to block.
33:08But apparently, he's their best receiver. A team that the Bills moved on from, the Falcons moved on from, everybody's moved on from.
33:15But he's their best receiver, apparently. He's in there to block.
33:18He doesn't block anybody. So, okay, great. Then, they got, the play is dialed up for Chisholm.
33:22Again, they have tight end injuries. So, I know why they're going to receivers.
33:26He falls, trips. And then, on top of it, so everything's screwed before the snap of the ball.
33:31And then, after the snap. But then, what May does is compound the issues by trying to throw the Chisholm against Travis Hunter.
33:38So, it's just, Hunter made a great play. Don't get me wrong.
33:41But that's one of those, don't make it the classic quarterback teaching point.
33:45Do not make a bad play worse. Especially when you don't have dudes around you.
33:49And you don't have, like, a fireball team. It's like, you don't have a supernova team.
33:53You just got to take the field goal there.
33:56He did the same thing at the end of the Seahawks game.
33:59Driving, driving, driving. Matt Collins runs an inside fade when he should go outside.
34:03Screws up the whole play. They're cutting. He's got pressure on his face.
34:07Just throw it away. Just throw it away. Take the field goal.
34:10I get you want to be a hero. That's kind of all the issues.
34:14But, talking about those Packers receivers, why I just said that, though.
34:17Romeo Dobbs' usage. And, again, there's so many kind of microcosms of what the issues are.
34:22Last year, and we've joked about this, Jordan Love, Romeo Dobbs out routes.
34:25Set your clock to it. One of the connections you could just watch all day.
34:30Last year, 22.5% of Romeo Dobbs' routes were out-breaking routes.
34:32This year, it's 11%. All right. 16% were just outs.
34:35This year, it's 6%. 44.2% of his routes are vertical.
34:38I don't think of Romeo Dobbs as a vertical guy.
34:41He was not at Nevada. He was not with the Packers.
34:44I think of him as an in-breaking, out-breaking guy.
34:46That's me. Last year, it was 31% was vertical.
34:49This year, he has three targets on out-breaking routes.
34:51He has three catches for 100 yards. Know your personnel.
34:54Know your personnel. And, like, that's it. Know your personnel.
34:57So, again, it's one of these things where football is a lot of variables.
35:01It is a lot of the circumstances, and I can get into even more.
35:05The Patriots receivers haven't forced a single missed tackle this entire season.
35:08One, Drake May, on gains of passes of 15 or more yards or receptions of 15 or more yards, only two were thrown under 15 yards.
35:15He has an air yards per attempt of 21.4 yards when he has to get an explosive.
35:20All right. For comparison, Mahomes is at 12 yards.
35:23Joe Burrow is at 15 yards. So, he has to launch stuff to create anything in this offense because the run game is a jab.
35:30It kind of feels like the Packers run game last year, but it has no diversity in that as well.
35:35So, again, I'm going to write about this, so make sure you check that out on Yahoo Sports tomorrow.
35:40But it's one of these where it's 80% of the circumstances and then May's spiraling at the very worst times.
35:46And you just feel, okay, Kyle Williams interception. He runs the route five yards short.
35:50I can't tweet that because everyone goes, you're defending May.
35:53It's like, he's five yards short on the route.
35:55Like, I have examples I'm going to use in the article.
35:58But just, again, compounding issues that others are kind of laying at his feet.
36:02It's a mess. It's slow, boring, and he's making it worse.
36:05But other than that, the defense is pretty cool.
36:08Oh, boy. Who cares? I mean, this offense, we showed it earlier, scored fewer points than the Miami Dolphins this year.
36:14That's humiliating. That's a one-point drive, I think, right?
36:16Yeah. That's humiliating. That's humiliating. It does. When we look at a lot of this stuff, by the way, it's, you mentioned the Romeo Dobbs vertical routes.
36:24That's because they've essentially, now that A.J. Brown is out, they've had to take Romeo Dobbs and make him their X receiver,
36:30which makes sense because he's an X receiver. That's what he was for Green Bay.
36:34It made no sense, by the way, to have him be this kind of movement flanker receiver, as we saw in week one.
36:41He was terrible in week one. He's actually been semi-functional since then.
36:44But with the X receiver in this offense, I've talked about with Kayshawn Body, with Kyle Williams from last year, Nelson Aguilar
36:50in 2021, all they do is run go routes.
36:53They run a bunch of go routes from the X receiver position.
36:56And guess what? Romeo Dobbs did that early on in his career when he was with Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Rodgers hated him.
37:02And he wasn't a productive player then because he can't separate down the field.
37:06But yeah, out routes, those in cuts, that's where he really took a step forward.
37:10But that's not what this system prioritizes. So it's constantly taking these square pegs, putting them in round holes.
37:16It seems to me, Nate, that they basically just bet their entire offseason on, well, we're going to run back everything that
37:22we did last year from a structural standpoint. Other than they get under center a good bit, 26th in motion, 29th in play action, spread it out.
37:29They've been more three receiver heavy as the season has gone on.
37:33They have some issues at the 10-end position for sure.
37:35Injuries. But yeah, injuries and everything. They obviously lost the – that's part of it.
37:40But anyway, so still though, they're going to just do all that, run it back, and place A.J.
37:45Brown in the X receiver position, and we'd be fine.
37:47Well, A.J. Brown hasn't been available since the first half of week one.
37:51And you see the results of that. So this is another one, honestly, I think could get worse before it gets better.
37:57Drake May is a guy I dropped in fantasy this week, and I don't really think I'm going to regret that.
38:03I'm fine with him in dynasty, but redraft, yeah, I'm like, I totally get dropping him.
38:08I dropped – you know how hard it was for me last week?
38:11He dropped Justin Herbert. I was like, whatever. I know what I'm seeing.
38:15Think of Kyle Williams' best game as a pro against the Bucs last year.
38:19And remember what routes he caught? Over routes when he went in motion.
38:22But the guy obviously can't win vertically like that.
38:25And I know the wazoo tape was him, like, busting and doing some vertical stuff.
38:29Put him – he should be the Z to me.
38:32Yeah. Like, that – it's pretty easy. He should be the Z.
38:35He should be the slot over Pop Douglas. I mean, like, enough for him with Pop Douglas.
38:40Enough of Pop Douglas. Oh, my God. So that was another thing.
38:43There's another play. Actually, Cam Ward faced the same issue.
38:46I know we're about to talk about him. But Cam Ward throwing to Wandale Robinson, who's 5'9 with 29-inch arms.
38:52And then Pop Douglas ran a corner route, and Drake May was on a boot.
38:56Throws it to him. Neither of the balls are bad.
38:59Like, they're not – if I were grading, like, how you grade kind of throws a 0-1-2.
39:03Two is a perfect throw. One's like, okay, that's catchable.
39:06They were ones. But neither guy, like, gives it a chance because they're so short and small.
39:11And even Tom Brady brought up this point when he was talking about Lad McConkie.
39:15When he was talking about the Chargers, he goes, he's a great player, but small players get smaller down the field.
39:21It puts a lot on the quarterback to be perfect with the throw.
39:24That's why you want big dudes in the red zone.
39:27You want big dudes on those things. So, and kind of my last thing, too, Hunter Henry is kind of like their steady Eddie guy.
39:34He's definitely taking a step back this year. And it's not just eye tests and making mistakes or anything like that.
39:40I looked at next-gen stats. I looked at all the speed stats.
39:43His average speed in 2024 was 10.8 miles an hour.
39:46Last year, it was 10.55. This year, it's 10.3.
39:49His average route speed was 12.2 in 2024. It was just over 12.
39:52Last year, it's 11.3. He's almost dropped a full miles per hour on his average route speed.
39:57This is not just when he catches it. This is just all of his routes.
40:01And that's tangible. I can see that. I'm like, oh, he just can't get any separation whatsoever.
40:06So, they're slow. They're archaic. And then they have the youngest starting quarterback in the NFL feeling like he has to make a play.
40:13And he's just trying to do too much. Yeah.
40:15He definitely deserves some blame here because, as you said, he's making a bad situation worse.
40:20But this offense, to me, we said it after week one, Nate.
40:23And I know there was so much talk about the schedule.
40:26Just this offense is a bad team beater. And right now, they've not been playing bad teams.
40:31They've actually played a pretty tough schedule to open up here.
40:34Yes. I know. That's what those Kevin's are going to happen.
40:37My stats are bunk, by the way. They played the Seahawks twice.
40:40The Seahawks play cover six more than anybody. No one is beating the Seahawks cover six.
40:45So, that cover six thing is bunk. I have a threat on it.
40:48So, if you want to check that out. Just look up Tice.
40:52Nate Tice. There's not a lot of Nate Tices out there.
40:55Look at me on X and just see me, the cover six stuff.
40:58Because that whole thing is bunk. And I'm writing about that as well.
41:02But May has got to be smarter and just kind of be a safe.
41:06They have to win ugly. That's their formula this year.
41:09Win ugly. Hit two throws. And hopefully, you guys actually catch it.
41:12You mentioned Justin Herbert. Since we talked about them last week, we don't have to be long on this one.
41:18But, again, where's the scale for Justin Herbert? I think we all can see anybody with eyeballs knows this situation.
41:23It's not working out. Weirdly, Nate, it's so funny.
41:26We all know that Tua is limited. And anybody that's a serious person knows that Tua is a limited quarterback.
41:31And it is what it is. He was a limiting factor as a quarterback.
41:35And yet, Mike McDaniel, when he hasn't had Tua in Miami and so far in L.A., the offense has been terrible.
41:41And I'm just not really sure. There's a lot going on here.
41:44Again, we talked about them last week. Where's the sliding scale on Herbert versus the ecosystem?
41:49Who's failing who? Very similar to the Patriots discussion.
41:51Making bad plays worse, trying to push it at the worst times.
41:55His pick in the end zone last week against the Bills, the C.J.
41:58Garner-Johnson one, is egregious. Like, there's no – I'm not even a guy that I consider myself a Herbert defender.
42:04I'm more just like a Herbert realist. I feel like that's the best way to put it.
42:09It's like his highs are highs. He can play a little too robotic and on script a little too much where it's
42:15like, eh, try and push it there. And he's had enough starts where that is like high school stuff.
42:20And I'm actually like – I'm not even kidding when I say that.
42:24That – and I said this on our show on Football 3.
42:27I want Hayden on Sunday night. It was that a deep safety in cover three like Gardner-Johnson was.
42:32That's called it – literally, we call it as quarterbacks, we call that a post safety because it's taking away a post route.
42:38Don't throw the post. And why is it called a post route?
42:42Because – yeah, don't throw the post. That's the one route you don't throw.
42:46And on rewatch, I watched that right away Sunday night.
42:49And I watched it back on All-22. I was like, oh, was it disguised?
42:52It was static cover three. Like Gardner-Johnson doesn't move.
42:55And there's not like he's shaded over nothing. And so one of those where it's like, oh, you're just not even seeing it right now.
43:02So that's like – yeah. So kind of similar to that discussion I just said with May, I will say the run
43:08game did have a little bit of life where it was like, okay, they're 10th in success right in run game, which
43:14shocked me when I looked it up. But so it's just one of those things where it's like there's little signs of life there.
43:21But whoo, Herbert's got to chill out or do something, go to meditation, something.
43:25But then they play the Seahawks this week. So good luck.
43:28All right. I know Marriott got after him, but good luck.
43:31That's – yeah. Not who you want to play against if you want to get right game.
43:36I don't – this is – let me be clear.
43:38This is not going to solve everything. I'm ready to see a little bit more of Trey Harris and a little less of Quentin Johnston.
43:45Quentin Johnston at this point. I thought Trey Harris had it.
43:48I actually just – yeah, he looked pretty good, especially on the out routes.
43:52And that's where – I mean, even on that play, honestly, it's not the cleanest throw.
43:57Like it's not the three yards of separation. But I actually think he probably could have gone to Harris on the right
44:03side on that play as opposed to throwing the post to – MVS, by the way.
44:07That's the other thing that's crazy about that. MVS.
44:10Yes. Yes. Yes. I know he's wearing number 13 and maybe he mistakes him for Keenan Allen, but I mean, my God, man, what are we doing here?
44:18That was the craziest part about it to me.
44:20And even Rondae Gadsden is like kind of open underneath and he takes the high throw.
44:25It's just – everything is broken here. We're definitely in – you got to prove it to me with almost anyone on the Chargers here.
44:32Ladd is playing well, but there's a lot of just – a lot of questionable stuff here.
44:36We're going to finish with Jalen Hurts and Cam Ward.
44:39Jalen Hurts, we talked – I talked about this a little bit with Ray that when we talk ecosystem with Jalen Hurts,
44:45you know, the ecosystem is the same. Like all that stuff that they said in the offseason, nothing's changed.
44:51They're like dead last in play action. They don't use any motion.
44:54They're all three receiver heavy. I know because of injuries.
44:57They're playing Zach Hurts who – I mean, Zach Hurts got his butt kicked on the screen to Makai Lemon, one of
45:03the hundred failed screens to Makai Lemon, which is like what do you expect?
45:07Zach Hurts is a 35-year-old player or whatever who tore his ACL in December and just signed with the team like 30 seconds ago.
45:13He looks like he's – Nate, that looks like you out there trying to block on that screen.
45:18So their tight ends are – yeah. Their tight ends are a mess.
45:22So they're just three receiver heavy super spread. So the ecosystem is not even what it's supposed to be.
45:27I don't really even know. This is just same old, same old with the Eagles to me.
45:32That's it. It's not like I'm even – if we talk about the guys in this offense, like I'm still hiding Devontae
45:38Smith, all that, but it is what it is.
45:41I mean, look at – I know the throwing over the middle thing is just overplayed and all that, but it showed
45:47– reared its ugly head again last Monday night.
45:49And, I mean, even the pick at the end was one of those where Hurts predetermined it and one of those –
45:56quarterbacks got to be – this is kind of a grander meta macro view.
45:59Quarterbacks, I think, now have to be more willing to push to just little hitch routes, stop routes on the outside and
46:06just take what I call – they call them gimmies.
46:08And I think it's kind of – it's circled back.
46:11Like gimmies kind of fell out of vogue in the late 2010s into what we are now.
46:16And now that's kind of come back a little bit.
46:19So that's just a sidebar. But the tight end blocking was something I had worried about anyways going into the season, especially
46:25with this offensive system that they wanted to run because Goddard had taken a step back as a blocker.
46:30And Johnny Munt's Johnny Munt. Like he's fine. And then they want to Raritan – or not Raritan, Stowers going.
46:36He's nothing right now, which I knew. I knew – even my write-up about him is he's two years away from being two years away.
46:43Like that's – he's a project for two years from now.
46:46But that was – my issue was, oh, you want to lean into this?
46:50And you don't have guys that can set the edge?
46:52That's weird. And then the run game got going on Monday night, but then they didn't lean into the run game.
46:58And so like you – this is a great stat from Ian right here is that their third downs are really long right now.
47:05And you don't want to make a living on third and long.
47:08Like it's just – it's impossible. It's just so, so hard to live on third down.
47:13Unless you're in third and shorts always. Just that Packers discussion.
47:16So that's just one of those things where it's – yeah, the run game got going, but they're going to be very
47:22dependent on who they play against to get that run game going because the O-line is taking a little step back.
47:28Man, little is I think being kind. I've been really disappointed a lot.
47:31Like specific areas of the offensive line. Like the interior is just such a – it's such a problem right now.
47:37Just Packers obviously aren't who they are. Yeah, you just play the Bears every week.
47:41That's fine. Yeah, I am – I think my original take on the Eagles was they were going to be a slow
47:48start team and they've been a slow start team.
47:50So I'm willing to kind of shelve them for now and see what it looks like midseason when maybe some of these
47:56things get corrected and everybody settles into the system.
47:59But I also think the system is just going to kind of be the Jalen Hurts offense and it's going to be a high wire act.
48:06Like that is what it is. Real quick before we go to break, Cam Ward.
48:10I don't really want to have a long discussion about the Tennessee Titans because we're once again – you should be playing
48:16zero Titans in fantasy, which is exactly where we arrived at about this point last year.
48:21Yeah, I don't know what to tell you. So my question for you is more about like is it already over for Cam Ward?
48:27Because I know that's unfair to say we're halfway – we're not even halfway through his second season.
48:32But it's been so, so bad statistically both years.
48:35I don't think it's going to get better any this year.
48:38I don't even know if Brian Dable is going to make it through this season.
48:42And the vibes are just so bad with this team again.
48:45Really bad. And I rewatched the Giants game because I'm like, all right, what does this look like?
48:50Because they didn't get a first down for forever in that game.
48:54And it's a lot of sequences where they run, run, pass, which is like – I did a show with Bill Barnwell
49:00yesterday and he was like, do they – we talked about Cam just for a little bit.
49:05And he's like, I don't think they trust him.
49:07And at first I was like, I don't know about that.
49:10And I watched him like, you might be right.
49:13They don't. And I'm not – I've never been worried about how Ward sees the game.
49:17And it's one of those things where, yeah, his style looks like it's very trick shotty.
49:22But he actually usually is going to the right answer.
49:24But some of this stuff is – it looks like a little predetermined.
49:28It looks kind of Herbert-ish where it's angry. Where it's not like – he's like, I'm going to freaking throw this and you better freaking catch it.
49:35Like, you know what? That's how it feels. I don't know.
49:39But that's how it just feels when I watch it.
49:41But the vibes are awful. I think the receivers are all taking turns, screwing up.
49:45Wanda Robinson's dropping balls. Calvin Ridley's and Carnell Tate are running the same route, which happened twice.
49:50Just off my – that's not any detailed notes.
49:53It's just twice I noticed that in this game after happening in week one.
49:57Didn't really show up week two. It was a little simpler game plan in week two.
50:01But that – yeah, don't have any Titans. Robinson's – long story short, if I'm out – I'm Cam Ward neutral right now.
50:08Again, he grew on me as a prospect. Rewatching him last year, he kind of grew on me.
50:13And this was the joke you and I kept saying.
50:15There's no stat I can point at that goes, hey, trust me, bro, on this.
50:19It's dire though right now. And it's one of those I'm going to give it until Halloween.
50:24They have a bye week after November 1st, November – so whatever week that is.
50:28So basically that's when I would give my assessment.
50:31They play the Ravens, Texans, Colts, Browns, and then Bengals.
50:34So kind of some matchups where they can kind of maybe get some answers.
50:38And maybe I can have a little more answers.
50:40I will say though, the O-line looks way improved.
50:43JC Latham looks like a stud again, like where he was supposed to be picked.
50:47The O-line just looks sound and pretty good. So the passing game's got to get right.
50:51And I don't know if Dable's that guy. And I'm still not on Ward.
50:55Like I really don't know. Like I feel like Switzerland on him right now.
50:59I'm just like I'm neutral because I don't know.
51:02I really don't know. He's a tough assessment for me.
51:04And I don't want to – there's enough flashes.
51:07I'm like okay. But then there's some stuff where it's just like it doesn't feel like he lets some stuff breathe because of pure anger when he's playing.
51:15And I mean he feels angry every time he's at a press conference that I see too.
51:19And like there's a weird combative – Right. And you know this is a weird combative relationship there.
51:24Robert Sala already looks hopeless. I kind of worry that if we don't know, like we're truly this neutral and maybe neutral
51:31to I don't know at this point in his career.
51:33And I know it's still very early. But like barring a drastic change, it kind of feels like we know, which is not a good place to be.
51:41So we'll see what happens. And I know this is super early again.
51:45Sorry. I know we're supposed to go to break.
51:47But this is how I kind of put it is when he got drafted number one overall, I always thought of like
51:53how my grade on him was kind of like how Goff was coming out where it was like in a normal draft and a perfect draft.
52:01It's like I wouldn't take him until the teens, not number one.
52:04But like okay, you can talk yourself into it.
52:07There's guys right now in this next class, Arch Manning and other guys that are interesting that I'm like I have a bigger grade on them.
52:14So if they are just following their math of grades like that just gives you your answer depending on where they pick not that arch.
52:21There's a long way to go till that point.
52:23I'm just talking about process here, even as a guy that is not totally out on ward.
52:28The game's the game. You know, this is how NFL, you know what stands for right?
52:32Not for long. It means in a lot of different ways.
52:36Man, so depressing. Okay, that was a tough one.
52:38We are going to take a quick break. We come back.
52:41We're talking a real banger Thursday night football game.
52:44Steelers at Browns. We'll get into that right after this.
52:46All right, we're back. Let's talk some Thursday night football here.
52:49Steelers two and a half point road favorites going in to Cleveland.
52:53And you know, I'm kind of joking about this game being maybe a little questionable on Thursday night.
52:58But these teams won last week. Looked pretty good on offense.
53:01Yeah, you're Nate Tyson's interested. I'm definitely interested to watch this game.
53:04Let's start on offense with the Steelers. As I read off yesterday with Ray, Jalen Warren, 91% of the running back touches.
53:10That's only happened seven times in a game so far this season.
53:1421 and a half fantasy points when the running back has that.
53:17Like, he's an auto start in your lineup. I love to see it actually because Rico Dattel has already been ruled out, which is to be expected.
53:25I wanted to see more Jalen Warren anyways. Jalen Warren is good.
53:28He's a really awesome player and could have had an even bigger game last week.
53:32So he's one I feel like I'm buying that performance from last week.
53:36Like, the passing game, Nate, how much of that was just like, oh, the Bengals defense is back.
53:41And how much of that was Aaron Rodgers and this thing looking pretty good?
53:45I think it was OK, a little bit of the Bengals, mostly the Bengals defense, especially the linebackers.
53:50And now their safety is actually they're playing the Jags this week.
53:53So, you know, if you want to focus on that game as well.
53:57Also, it was the Steelers playing the Max Hennisher at right tackle and swapping out their linemen and the offensive line just looking good.
54:03And Hennisher is getting a lot of the focus.
54:06And, you know, I made sure to get my tweets out there about it.
54:10But Troy Fontenew, the left tackle, looks incredible right now.
54:13And all the big runs, if you notice what the Steelers last week were to the left, to the left, to the left.
54:19And I think that's going to be a thing for them all year.
54:23So, you know, I think the Browns have some dudes up front.
54:26But Mason Graham got some pass rush snaps, but run game wise, you can get after him.
54:31I actually think the Steelers match up well against them on the interior.
54:34Warren is a pretty good runner in all runs.
54:37I like him best in gap scheme and duo runs.
54:40Not that the Steelers really lean into those. But really, there's enough with that Steelers offense that it's like, OK, that was
54:46the formula I wanted them to do. Run the ball and then Aaron Rodgers have some third down throws, not just live in the check down underneath world.
54:53Because they don't have the personnel for that. So that was like encouraging in the sense that it's like, that's their formula for this season.
55:00Going against the Browns defense, I like, you know, they're kind of iffy against tight ends, which is one of the props I like.
55:07But they're not bad. Like, they're not like, you know, the Jags got after them, but they're not outright bad.
55:13They're mid, but they're not like outright bad. But I think actually the Steelers actually have some just, again, nice natural answers
55:19if they want to run the ball, especially to the outside.
55:22Yeah, that's a great point. Yeah, so much of, I mean, the Roman Wilson stuff felt like fluky.
55:27Ben Skoranek actually had like, he had the insert play action touchdown, which, you know, that's going to have.
55:32That's going to. Yeah. Yeah. Designs. Exactly. Which, yeah.
55:35You know, that's good to see Adam McCarthy and good to see.
55:38Yeah, credit to those guys for executing. I would just I would just I would just be surprised if if that happens
55:44again against this defense in Cleveland that can really get after it.
55:48You know, it's not the same unit, obviously, without Miles Garrett, of course, but they play a ton of man coverage and
55:54they lead the NFL in man coverage rate right now.
55:56The outside receivers. It's just going to be a struggle, I think, for this team all season long with how static things
56:03are with the way Metcalf is playing, you know, Pittman coming back from a bunch of injuries.
56:07At this point in his career, I just I would I'm I like Jeremy Bernard, but he made a lot of mistakes
56:13in week two or he made at least one big mistake in week two.
56:17And you wonder how like that's going to go with Aaron Rodgers.
56:21When Roman Wilson made a mistake, they threw him on the bench and then tossed Bernard back in there.
56:26So it feels like they're kind of will they won't they with that room that do at least all season long.
56:32So interested to talk about that one there. I will say, too, on the on the Browns side of things, I know we're both big Denzel Boston fans.
56:40I think like Casey Concepcion has been close to a big game.
56:43It just hasn't quite happened yet for him because Watson is Watson.
56:46Where are you at with the Browns offense and what they showed?
56:50Yeah. Oh, my kind of last little note, too, is Denzel Ward's playing great and he actually matches up well on the outside, too.
56:56So it's like that's another component of the outside stuff.
56:59Yeah. So to continue on that, but yes, Casey Concepcion is close.
57:03But the thing is, I kind of looked at it because I was like, oh, yes, Steelers versus slot targets.
57:08They're they're kind of like average ish. Forty seven percent success rate.
57:11You know, the high high completion percentage or maybe catches if you want to focus on that Steelers versus outside targets.
57:17They're garbage. They have allowed the fourth highest success rate against outside targets.
57:21They've allowed one hundred and twenty three passing rating, sixty two point sixty two percent success rate.
57:26They've allowed this year. Twenty seven to thirty seven, three hundred and ninety four yards, three touchdowns on outside targets.
57:31The lines are second, by the way, or second most.
57:34They've allowed. I think they love the second most EPA and they play the Panthers monsters on Monday night.
57:39So alert alert for that. Please be healthy for that game.
57:42Please, please, please. It's the perfect matchup for him.
57:45It should be a lot of my God. My friend, he can have to from next gen stats.
57:50He has a whole bunch of stats about the weight differential.
57:53And it's like one of the most extreme height and weight differentials between receivers and tight ends and DBs like on record.
57:59Like it's like a top ten, like just differential.
58:02But we're talking Thursday night, not Monday. No, but twenty three of the twenty seven completions have been successful.
58:07The EPA per drop back on outside targets been point six, three nine explosives allowed.
58:11You know, lines out outside Denzel Boston. Ninety one percent of his routes have been from the outside.
58:16Eight receptions on 14 targets, one hundred and eighty six yards, tenth most in the NFL so far.
58:21So the props I like this week if we want to get into them.
58:25Denzel Boston ladders, baby. Let's climb the ladder. So Denzel Boston.
58:28I wish it was a stairway to heaven instead of Boston.
58:31You know, it could have been easy. But if you just want to go simple, the over under is thirty five and a half yards right now.
58:39Over fifty yards is plus one sixty over seventy five five yards is plus four fifty over one hundred yards is plus ten fifty.
58:45Anytime TD scores plus three forty. Have fun with it.
58:48Whichever one you want to roll with. I looked them all up for you guys, so you don't have to.
58:54But I was on bad MGM. But I'm all in on Boston this week, not only just because of his own ability,
59:00but because of who they're playing against. The other one I tried to look up was tight end targets because Harold fans, Harold fan.
59:07And Steelers actually pretty good against tight ends. Jalen Ramsey's in the slot, helps it out.
59:11Fewest attempts allowed. Fewest yards allowed. Only one successful play on tight ends.
59:15That's the best in the week so far this year.
59:17So maybe can say Casey Concepcion. But I think Boston's the guy I'm kind of a hard charge.
59:22And again, I know it didn't really work out last week, but that was a weird game.
59:27But yeah, that's all Boston. And then I have a couple Steelers props if you guys want those.
59:32Well, on the Panthers defense. I know now it's going to be it's going to be tough because both their cornerbacks, Mike
59:38Jackson and JC Horner now for like eight weeks.
59:41But that's one thing that they can do pretty well is limit explosive plays on the outside.
59:46Is that Panthers defense again? Man, it's going to be a track meet on Monday Night Football.
59:50Wish we were talking about Monday Night Football here, clearly.
59:53But anyways, I'm actually curious what the routes are that the Steelers are most vulnerable to on the outside because they play a ton of cover for.
60:01They play a ton of zone, which can kind of turn into pattern matching.
60:05And when they play man coverage, they get fried to the Steelers defense because they don't have the cornerback talent on the outside.
60:11So that leans into Denzel Boston really well. I like that.
60:14Maybe Denzel Boston is like a sneaky start in fantasy here.
60:17And that's kind of I mean, obviously, Harold Fannin is mostly like most likely a fantasy starter for you.
60:22Casey kind of need to see it first. And I think it can come together.
60:27Could be this week. Could be at any point again when they play man coverage.
60:31Maybe Casey gets them for a big play here or there.
60:34But yeah, I think Quinjohn Judkins is not going to happen in this ecosystem.
60:38Real quick, what are your Steelers props here? Yeah, the Browns versus tight end targets this year.
60:42They've allowed eight catches on 11 targets, 108 yards.
60:45All eight of those were successful. Six went for first downs, three explosives, 72.7% success rate.
60:49So anything kind of Fryermuth, Washington touchdown wise. Anytime touchdown for Fryermuth is plus 390.
60:54Washington's plus 600 anytime. If you're really feeling, you know, if you really want to get into it, Fryermuth first touchdown score is plus 1400.
61:01Washington's plus 2200. So if you're really feeling frisky on those, that's the ones I'm going to be leaning on.
61:06But I think it is a tight end running back game for the Steelers in a good way, as opposed to last
61:12year's kind of like, yeah, bad shenanigans, scary shenanigans.
61:15I'm trying to remember the quote from Super Troopers.
61:17Evil shenanigans. That was last year. I think these are going to be cheeky and fun as opposed to what it was last year.
61:24Feels like a low scoring game to me. 38 and a half point over under.
61:28I don't think we're going to see a lot of points, especially from the Pittsburgh side here.
61:33Probably it could be enough to win for sure.
61:35Just because I still don't really trust Watson. He's still playing really shaky, even though the results have been good the last two weeks.
61:42We'll see how that plays out. Nate, appreciate you, man.
61:45This has been great. We're going to say goodbye to you.
61:48And then we're going to take a quick break and come back on the other side with Justin Boone and the flex fit check.
61:55We'll get into that right after this. And we're back.
61:57Nate and I were not doing a good enough job on this segment.
62:01So the professionals were like, we need to bring a real fantasy analyst in here.
62:05And that's why we got you doing this one with us.
62:08What's going on, man? No, we got so many great analysts now.
62:12I think we're still trying to figure out where the pieces fit best.
62:15And we're doing it on the fly a little bit.
62:18But that's all right, man. And I got the memo here.
62:21No one asked me to do this. But I went into the closet and I got my first gear that I wore
62:27for our Buffalo show in the summer. We got the hat.
62:30We got the shirt. And I keep telling my wife, I want to get down to Dick's Sporting Goods.
62:36I want to get some more stuff. And again, no one is putting me up to saying this.
62:41I just really like the repair. I like the gear.
62:43And it's tough during the season, Herman. As you know, it's tough to carve out some time to go on a little shopping spree.
62:50But maybe after the season, I'll get that done.
62:53I think our friends at Verse will probably be hitting you up here pretty soon after that great sell job you just did there.
62:59Yeah, I was wearing my Versed pants at the wedding that we were at last weekend.
63:04Not the actual wedding, but one of the welcome parties.
63:07And I was looking cute. I was getting compliments.
63:09There was a lot of stuff going our way.
63:12We love Versed. We also love getting the right players in our flex here, Justin Boone.
63:16So let's get down to business here. Let's talk three wide receivers here to start off.
63:21First one up, Jameson Williams at Carolina was just talking about this game a little bit with Nate in the last segment,
63:27how it is going to be an absolute track meet with the Panthers and Lions on Monday Night Football.
63:32How are you feeling about Jameson Williams this week going against a Panthers defense that just put both of its starting corners
63:38on IR and are going to be out for a long stretch here?
63:42I think we have to qualify this one a little bit because I believe on the Panic Meter show on Monday, we
63:48talked about JMO and we had some panic on him.
63:51Might even been total panic on him. And I think that's accurate for the rest of the season where you drafted him.
63:57He's not going to return that value. He's not going to be that wide receiver to the rest of the way.
64:03He's more of that boomer bus wide receiver three.
64:05And it's because Sam Laporte is healthy. They have so many options there.
64:09And yet Harmon, I think you can start in pretty confidently in this game.
64:13And it's not just the injuries on the Panthers defense.
64:15It's the injuries on the Lions defense. That's what's going to create this like crazy shootout atmosphere that we're going to get from this one.
64:22So very excited. Keeping a little eye on the weather for this one.
64:26I looked at it. I don't normally look at it and put too much stock in it till later in the week
64:32because the forecasts get a little more accurate at that point.
64:35But we'll keep an eye out for potentially some rain that might damper these things a little bit.
64:40But right now, just massive shootout potential tied for the highest projected point total on the week.
64:45Fifty one and a half. Lions are third and implied point total.
64:48Twenty seven. This is the spot to start. J.
64:51Moe, if you're looking for that boom week, everything is lining up for this to be the boom week.
64:56I have to think you agree here, Harmon. I do agree.
64:59I wish this game was in Detroit to avoid some of the weather.
65:03I had J. Moe ranked as wide receiver twenty five coming into this season, which I feel like is ultimately going to be perfect.
65:09He probably is going to end up finishes finishing his wide receiver five twenty five while never being the wide receiver twenty five.
65:16It's going to be wide receiver forty forty forty.
65:18And then this is the boom week here in week number four.
65:22Yeah, I agree with you. We're getting Jameson Williams into lineups.
65:25Listen, if it's a three for forty type of game, you know what?
65:28You know what you're doing. You know what aisle you're shopping in.
65:32It is what it is. But I think this is the right week to chase the ceiling, especially that late primetime game hammer here.
65:38So, yeah, let's let's see it. I think this is the week to chase Jameson Williams.
65:43Let's talk about a receiver. I had ranked much higher than wide receiver twenty five.
65:47I don't know if he's finished at wide receiver twenty five yet this season, because this team has been a stone cold disaster.
65:54Emeka Ibuka facing the Green Bay Packers with undrafted free agent Jalen Daniels.
65:57I think Ibuka has looked good on tape. I also think it has not mattered so far yet this season.
66:03What are you doing with Ibuka this week? Well, I wrote the first version of my buys and sells column this week.
66:09Obviously, I had some things going on earlier in the season.
66:12Didn't get to do it yet, but you really don't need to do buys and sells until we get a couple weeks
66:18into the year and we start to get a better idea what things are going to look like.
66:23Off this ride with him right now. And you're saying that you think he looks OK.
66:28Does it even matter? Like I was worried coming into the year because of the toe injury and how much that might impact him.
66:34But that whole offense is just looked out of sorts.
66:37And now we're going from Baker Mayfield. And let's face it, the bar was not very high with the way Mayfield was playing at the moment.
66:44But now we're going to go to a rookie backup and Daniels.
66:48And I'm curious to see what he looks like.
66:50But are we really expecting him to come in here and improve this offense?
66:54Like that's going to be a tough sell, right?
66:57Just if he can come out there and play average football, I think that would be a huge, a huge win for him.
67:03So we're looking at right now. I mean, five for 63, three for 16, saved his day with a touchdown a week to five for 62.
67:10It's just not the breakout that we were potentially expecting from him here.
67:14So I'm very worried about that. I'm just worried about this offense as a whole, even in a good matchup, Harmon.
67:20I'm calling him a sit here. I have him ranked all the way down at wide receiver 35.
67:25And when you get to that range, it kind of comes down to your options, of course.
67:29But to me, he's a very risky, volatile wide receiver three for fantasy at the moment.
67:34Yeah, I'm there with you. I have him on my 3-0 fantasy, the expert league team.
67:38I have him on the 3-0 team. So you can make some landmine picks and you could still end up turning out pretty good.
67:45No excuses. Make good decisions. Your 3-0 team, which this week is projected to lose to Joel's 0-3 team.
67:50I love to see that. That's fun. I think I've been projected to lose every week.
67:55And yet here I am, 3-0. All that matters is the results.
67:58Scoreboard, baby. Very lucky or very skilled. And maybe more skilled than the algorithm.
68:02That's what I'm going to go with. But Michael Wilson is a player I've yet to start actually on that team.
68:08I'm going to be playing Michael Wilson over Emeka Ibuka this week with some confidence.
68:12I'm going to have Michael Wilson ranked much higher.
68:15So, okay, let's get to the next one here.
68:17Roma Dunze, another guy that has not really had a boom week so far.
68:21He's had a couple of okay games back-to-back. Could have been much better if he just, you know, squeezed that football in the end zone on Monday night.
68:29But the targets have not really been there. He's playing a Jets defense that, again, it's a good matchup.
68:34Yet another guy that has been up and down.
68:37Are you playing Roma Dunze this week? I'm more curious of your take here because this was like your guy.
68:42I thought this was like your hill that you were standing on that you were like, he's the one.
68:47Him versus Luther Burton. I'm dying on. You thought they should be ranked closer.
68:51You like to Dunze. I want to know, are you backing off of that take here?
68:56Are we still pushing it? Are we moving forward?
68:58I think there are going to be better days ahead for Rome.
69:02But, I mean, everybody's been disappointing in this offense so far except Kalief Raymond.
69:06And the Kalief Raymond fact is something that I guarantee when you and I would talk these Bears receivers in the offseason,
69:12we did not bring up like, oh, could Kalief Raymond be the leading receiver?
69:16Yeah, could Kalief Raymond be the leading receiver? That was not ever one of the variables.
69:20And, you know, Raymond, I don't think is going to go away.
69:23I also don't think he's going to finish. I'd be shocked if he finishes the year as the leading receiver on the team.
69:30I think one of these three young guys can still get up and grab it.
69:34But the problem for Dunze is that he is so clearly the deep guy in the offense.
69:39And everyone else gets layups around the line of scrimmage.
69:42And especially when you are likely, I'm assuming Case Keenum is going to start again against the New York Jets.
69:47I don't know if that's been officially announced yet.
69:50I certainly don't think Williams is back yet this week.
69:52Now, it's just going to be a very rocky ride with Roma Dunze.
69:56I'm still going down with the ship over the course of the season because he's just a very frustrating player, Boone, because
70:02he looks really, really good as a separator. He gets open.
70:05But it's just like one play a game. And mostly it's just that drop against the Eagles.
70:10It's just so haunting. It still personally hurts my feelings that he didn't catch that pass.
70:14I'm still going down with the ship over the course of the season, but it is just pretty difficult here in week four.
70:21There's a couple spots where I'm probably going to play him, but he's not like a must play to me, if that makes sense.
70:28Yeah, I would agree with that. I would try to sit him if you can.
70:32I have him ranked lowest of all these guys.
70:34I'm at wide receiver 37. And the situation has just changed.
70:37We thought this was going to be three guys, really a consolidated passing game around the three of them.
70:43I still felt like he would be the third in that mix, but we thought this offense was going to score so much that it would be fine.
70:50He would still have enough big games. And yet now it's very clearly a four man group that we're splitting the spy between.
70:57Never thought we would have said that. Khalif Raymond, even in those like sicko deep dynasty leagues, Harmon, I saw him on waiver wires this offseason.
71:04Never once thought. I mean, he's been like a special teamer, a guy who used to get into the Lions offense just when there was injuries.
71:11He wasn't a guy that would come out and do this.
71:14And maybe that's kind of framing the way I'm looking at him right now, because in my waiver wire column, I didn't put him that high.
71:22I wasn't really expecting that he's going to continue this.
71:24I think the bottom is going to fall out eventually.
71:27But all four of these guys are going to be involved.
71:30Will they get Colson Loveland? Will they get a Dunze going a little more?
71:34Yeah, absolutely. But you nailed it. A Dunze's average depth of target is like almost twice as much as Burden and Raymond.
71:4017.8. 17.8. It's crazy. Trying to make these tougher catches downfield, that makes it harder on him.
71:45So yes, if he had gotten that touchdown, would have changed things for him?
71:49Absolutely. But I think overall, just what we're looking at in this offense right now, it's split between more guys.
71:54And he is not one of the featured ones, at least at the moment.
71:58I don't think he's going to be at any point here.
72:01So for me, he's a sit. He's that kind of risky wide receiver three flex, almost like touchdown or bust kind of wide receiver three flex, I think.
72:09Yeah, definitely. The Jets are ninth most in terms of points per drop back allowed in man coverage.
72:14I do think Roma Dunze is still their best man coverage receiver.
72:18So it could happen for him this week. I don't think he's a must sit, but I would also be I'm going to probably rank him out.
72:25So I'm definitely going to rank him outside my top 30 receivers.
72:28I know he's not the guy we're talking about here.
72:31Go ahead. Go ahead. No, I was just going to say that the Jets weirdly so far have not been a positive matchup either for receivers.
72:39They've allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards, the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers.
72:42So that just kind of adds a little more on top of it.
72:46It's early in the season. It's a small sample size, but they have not let a lot of receivers score big fantasy points on them this year.
72:54Yeah, I think a lot of that has to do with like they really did improve the spine of their defense, especially at the linebacker position.
73:01So a lot of these in cuts against zone coverage have been pretty blocked off for them, which will be fascinating seeing, you know, Khalif Raymond, Luther Burden.
73:09Like those are the routes they typically run. So if you didn't want to attack this Jets defense, it would be with the boundary receivers.
73:16But, you know, that's just not what's happened so far in this Bears offense.
73:19I don't know if it's going to happen with Case Keenum here.
73:23He will be ranked for short outside of my top probably 33 wide receivers this week.
73:27And for me, Luther Burden, I don't know where you're going to have him.
73:31He'll probably be, I don't know, in the low end wide receiver to range because he's got he got the volume last week.
73:38A lot of it was on like kind of designer stuff close to the line of scrimmage.
73:42And yeah, that can obviously go one way or another.
73:45Yeah, that's exactly the range I have him in.
73:48I'm still pretty, pretty excited about what Burden can do this season.
73:51And we'll see what these other guys can eventually come through with, if anything, as the season goes along.
73:56So far, a little disappointing from not just the Dunsay, but Loveland and Burden at least showed some signs of hope on Monday.
74:03So 32-year-old Khalif Raymond, leading receiver for the Ben Johnson offense this year.
74:06To your point, like it was when guys were injured in Detroit.
74:10And if you're playing the Hopium game here, both Burden and a Dunsay did deal with preseason injuries.
74:15Maybe by the end of the year, those guys have put Khalif Raymond in the backseat.
74:19But he's not doing anything to lose his role.
74:22And they're designing plays for him. And the plays are working.
74:25So it's hard to see that changing. Let's go to the running back position here.
74:29Let's start with Amarian Hampton, a guy that most of everybody was excited about this season.
74:33He is facing the Seattle Seahawks. It's been pretty hit or miss so far for Amarian Hampton.
74:38Where are you going to have him ranked this week?
74:41So I have him at RB24. So you're probably playing him, right?
74:44Like I doubt you're going to have enough options that you're going to have guys that you can go above him on this one.
74:51Unless you grab somebody like a Chuba Hubbard a little later in your draft, then absolutely I'd be playing him over him.
74:57But right now, Hampton is another guy that I wrote up as a sell this week.
75:02I want to try to get off of this train as well.
75:05This offense looks terrible. And you want to give them time to figure it out.
75:09And maybe they will, right? Maybe Mike McDaniel will get this sorted and this offense will start humming around midseason.
75:15But we talked about it on the Panic Meter episode.
75:17One of the biggest problems here is you look at this schedule, right?
75:21Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, Ravens, all sandwiched around a bye in week seven.
75:25First up here is the Seahawks. That is a very tough matchup for a back who now is not really getting as
75:31much work as we might have thought before the season.
75:34Not only do you have Keaton Mitchell getting involved, now you have Kamani Vidal also working in, right?
75:39So Hampton only running a route at 16% of the dropbacks in week three.
75:43This is a problem. And he's managed to come through thanks to some touchdowns in the first couple weeks here.
75:48But I think you got to sell. You have to look at what you have right now.
75:53You're obviously disappointed that he hasn't come through with what's called second round value because that's where you were drafting him.
75:59I think even if you're taking a loss in that trade, get rid of him.
76:03Get somebody else who might have more upside, might be able to come along and give you more as the season goes along here.
76:10Because I don't think Hampton is going to be the guy that we hoped that he could potentially emerge as that like breakout kind of second year back.
76:18This offense doesn't look like it's going to support that.
76:20And now the way they're using him and deploying him with these three different backs involved, that's going to make it very
76:27difficult for him to come through in these games.
76:29He's not going to continue to survive just on these touchdowns.
76:32Yeah, and I mean this week against Seattle, you don't have a receiving workload.
76:36As you mentioned, 16% of the routes, you do not have a floor and it's a really brutal spot.
76:41So yeah, I think running back 24, that is fair.
76:44I'm asking you two questions. You can't really call him a sit though because the state of the running back position at the moment.
76:51And I mean, I'm in some leagues like this, Harmon, where my RB2 or my flex is pretty rough.
76:56If you had a guy like Hampton, you'd actually be pretty happy.
76:59He's got a shot to score a touchdown, maybe get lucky, breaks a run.
77:03So it's like a reluctant start. I don't know if that's an option here, but this is like a reluctant start for me.
77:10Well, if it's a flex play though, you probably have a better option at the receiver position than Amorian Hampton.
77:15But yeah, maybe, you know, if we're going, maybe, I don't know.
77:19It is tough. Let me ask you two questions to level set rest of season for Hampton and then also this week.
77:25Like rest of season, would you rather have Basial Tootin or Amorian Hampton?
77:28It's very close. I think I'd rather have Tootin.
77:31Yeah. Because like, again, I still think that we're going to see more from Tootin.
77:35I think more opportunity will come for him. He's trending in the right direction versus Hampton's kind of trending in the wrong direction.
77:42Right. The workload, I think, is going to go up for Tootin and we're already seeing the workload maybe go away from Hampton.
77:48Plus, it's like, do I want to be invested in what the charters look like right now or what the Jags look like right now?
77:55And they seem to just be more incentivized to get more of Tootin.
77:59So, yeah, I think, again, if you're looking for a one-to-one trade, I don't know if you could get it.
78:04But I actually think fantasy-wise they've been close enough.
78:07I think you could maybe get the Hampton for Tootin swap.
78:10Okay. This week, Braylon Allen off the waiver wire subbing in for Brees Hall against the Chicago Bears.
78:15I have him ranked ahead of Amorian Hampton. Would you play Braylon Allen or Amorian Hampton this week?
78:20I would definitely have Allen above him. I think I have Allen at RB20, I believe.
78:24Yeah, for sure. Would be happy to play him for the next couple weeks.
78:28I think he's looked really good in limited usage.
78:31I think that offense has looked decent. Yeah, Braylon Allen is certainly somebody that I'd prefer to play over him.
78:36All right. Let's go to another running back here.
78:39Ramadre Stevenson at the Buffalo Bills. Man. Are you willing to find new and creative ways to be invested in the Patriots offense?
78:45Um, Justin Boone. Well, I will admit in our expert league where I am so starved for an RB2 at the moment
78:51that last week I had to start Alvin Kamara.
78:54I have been looking for potential trade candidates, running backs who are sitting on people's benches that maybe have a chance to
79:00turn things around that I could buy low on.
79:02And I've been eyeing Ramadre Stevenson a little bit as a guy whose volume bounced right back last week after having the fumbles in week two.
79:10He comes to the phone. We probably comes right back, gets out there and gets the same workload.
79:15The results were not there and the matchup was very difficult.
79:18So I'm trying to talk myself into sending a trade offer for a guy like Stevenson.
79:22But every time I think about it, I just come to the same conclusion where this is a split backfield, another offense
79:28that's not really working at the moment. Let's face it.
79:31And we don't know when things are going to turn around and they're going against the bills this week.
79:36And I worry that they're going to fall down big time in this game.
79:40I don't worry as a bills fan. I worry as a guy who's talking about Ramadre Stevenson right now, if we're trying
79:46to find value in this backfield, um, the matchup is not terrible.
79:50That bills defense can be got, but Stevenson right now, Vegas is not believing it.
79:54Eight and a half carries 31 and a half rushing yards, 18.5 receiving yards.
79:58That's what they have him set at the moment.
80:00It doesn't look great. So he is just down in that RB or bust, you know, or touchdown or bust RB three territory.
80:07He's got to be a sit. You have to be able to find a better option than this right now.
80:12Harmon. Yeah. I don't have either Patriots running back ranked inside my top 24 backs this week.
80:17And I'm not sure when the next time that's going to happen.
80:20Uh, the Patriots rank third in time of possession per drive and they rank 31st in points per or excuse me, no
80:2711th in time of possession per drive, 32nd in points per drive.
80:30So congratulations, taking a lot of time to go nowhere are the new England Patriots.
80:34Okay. Last running back. We're going to talk about speaking of the waiver wire, Ollie Gordon at Minnesota.
80:39Boone. I mean, I, I have been shocked to see some of the bids for Ollie Gordon.
80:44Although I guess I shouldn't be actually, cause we posted our, uh, or the, our fantasy handle posted our, our waiver wire segment, uh, on, on, on Twitter.
80:52And people were after you about your, your bid recommendation for Ollie Gordon.
80:55And I was like, what do you, I think maybe the recommendation is don't bid a bunch of money on Ollie Gordon.
81:01Well, guess what? All those people did bid a bunch of money on Holly Gordon.
81:06And so did the people in some of the leagues I'm in, uh, yikes.
81:09People are very excited about getting invested in a Dolphins backfield.
81:13That wasn't even good when Devon HN was there and they're playing against the Minnesota Vikings this week, Boone.
81:18So how excited are you about Ollie Gordon as a flex play?
81:21And we talked about it on Monday and I wrote about it in my waiver wire column that we're not even totally
81:27sure that Ollie Gordon is going to be the back you want in this backfield that Jalen Wright was hurt last week.
81:33That's why Gordon got the amount of work that he did.
81:36And now Jalen Wright is back at practice and we'll see if he can play this week.
81:41But if he's out there at worst, this is going to be some form of committee with both backs getting involved, but
81:47there's a chance that right gets significantly more work.
81:50And that's why I had very low bids on them.
81:53That's why I had the bids pretty close as well.
81:55I was shocked, man. When I saw some of those comments and some of the people replying to that, that were saying,
82:02you know, 80% bids and stuff like that, that people were putting out there to get Ollie Gordon, just a terrible mistake.
82:08And we were not directing them in that way at all whatsoever.
82:11And then the other problem is this matchup. You're going against the Vikings defense.
82:15Brian Flores' defense is going to cause tons of problems.
82:18I mean, they cause problems for good offenses. They're going to be a nightmare for this offense this week.
82:23So this is more of a wait and see.
82:26You were picking up these backs in the Dolphins backfield to see how it plays out.
82:30Maybe you get lucky and you end up with a starting running back on an NFL team, maybe as the season goes
82:36along, but you weren't picking them up unless you're incredibly desperate to try to put them in your lineup this week.
82:42So I am sitting him. I have him as my RB 36.
82:45So kind of well off that range that you're considering guys in the flex, unless your team is really struggling.
82:51And I'm in some spots, like I mentioned, where I have to play some of these deeper running backs.
82:56But Ollie Gordon is not somebody that's getting in any of my lineups this week.
83:00Yeah, the Dolphins are 31st in rushing EPA. The Vikings are second in rushing EPA allowed.
83:05So congratulations. That's the guy we're starting here. I don't think so.
83:08The Vikings are obviously the Dolphins are also projected for 14 points, lowest in the league against the Minnesota Vikings this week.
83:14So yeah, not really the backfield that you want to be shopping in right now.
83:18Okay, let's finish at the tight end position. We're going back to the Bears.
83:22Colson Loveland versus the Jets. Boone, is there anything that would indicate that Colson Loveland is about to go off here other
83:29than Colson Loveland was very good as a rookie and he's a full-time player in an offense that we really like?
83:34Like make the case for the Colson Loveland rebound here.
83:37I can't. I mean, if we want to have fun with it, he had zero yards in week one and three yards
83:43in week two and 31 yards last week. So he's headed in the right direction here.
83:48Trending up. Maybe we're just going up and up and we'll see it exponentially.
83:52What do you say? I don't know, man. Three yards in week two and 31 last week.
83:56So he 10X'd his week two yards. Yeah. So he's going to set some records this week, potentially.
84:01It goes back to the Dunes, I think. This is going to be split.
84:05Will it get better? Yes. I think last week it seemed like Ben Johnson was trying to get him going early in
84:11the game because they were going to him a bunch.
84:14And if he had found the end zone, if he had reached out and got a touchdown, yeah, that would have been better for his fantasy day.
84:22But I don't think it would have really changed the situation at the moment, which is they're thrown to four different guys.
84:28And he is not that featured part of the offense that we thought he was going to be that he was down
84:34the stretch last year when he was averaging double digit targets per game.
84:38He's not getting anywhere close to that right now.
84:40So no, I have him down at tight end 14.
84:43I mean, we've talked about I know Josh's big thing has been that, you know, you can start tight ends in the
84:49flex right now because there's so many good tight ends.
84:52I would not be trying to start Colston Loveland in my flex.
84:55Let's see him do something. Let's see a couple more weeks and where this is going before we're putting him in our lineups.
85:02I think that's the right answer here. You know, fantasy points data has a stat average depth of route.
85:07And when you look at the it's like where the first break occurs on the routes.
85:11I think it's interesting looking at receivers. And so with tight ends here, Brock Bowers after one game, these are guys who
85:18have run 30 plus routes in the season. He's number one, which makes sense because, you know, he essentially was used as
85:24a wide receiver like the X receiver for the Raiders last week.
85:27Then it's a pretty big drop off to Mark Andrews at second.
85:30Then it's Terrence Ferguson. Then it's Noah Gray. Then it's Colson Loveland.
85:34Then it's Kyle Pitts. And it's these guys are running a lot of downfield routes at the tight end position, which is
85:40going to make it very boom or bust. You know, guys like Harold Fannin exist a little closer to the line of scrimmage.
85:46Some of these other players that are Travis Kelsey, who's made some plays down the field.
85:51He's much lower. He's 23rd in this metric. You know, Sam Laporta is 26th.
85:55Trey McBride, who just piles up catches, is 29th.
85:57So George Kittle, 35th. Like you can go down the list of these more consistently productive players.
86:02And it's they're not this high in terms of the depth at which their route breaks.
86:06I think that has been a part of the story here for Colson Loveland.
86:10And I think it's been a little hit or miss for Colson Loveland as an individual player whenever I watch this team as well.
86:17But the fact that he's running these downfield routes, he's not getting the gimmies that a Luther Burton or Kalief Raymond is right now either.
86:24Yeah, totally. And the Jets, going back to your point earlier, like the Jets defense, a little bit better this year.
86:30They haven't allowed a tight end to top 44 yards against them.
86:33So it's not even like we can point to that as like, OK, other tight ends are going off.
86:38It's a good matchup for them. That's not the case either.
86:41So let's sit Loveland for now. Let's see how this develops over the next week or two.
86:46And then we can make a decision on that.
86:49All right. Last guy we're talking about here, Dalton Schultz, Texans tight end.
86:52And I'll say this, I will not be ranking Dalton Schultz as a tight end one now that Nico Collins is likely to be back this week.
87:00Do you feel differently on that one? No, not at all.
87:03This was the easiest one to call here. Nico Collins looks like he's coming back.
87:07And even with Nico Collins out last week, I mean, the Colts saw the game film from the week before and how many passes went his way.
87:15And then they just kind of took him out of the game last week, right?
87:19He didn't have another big target total. So yeah, it's not that hard to take Dalton Schultz out of a game.
87:25And unfortunately, when Nico Collins is playing, he just goes back to being like a deep streamer type at tight end.
87:30All right. There you have it. Those are your first flex fit check players feeling pretty good about where some of these
87:37guys are feeling not so good about where some of the other ones are.
87:40Boone, I'm feeling very good that we got you back on the show two times a week, my friend.
87:46It's good to see you decked out and all your verse here, too.
87:49What a what a what a great guy for the sponsor.
87:52Hey, I love it, man. This hat has been like my go to hat ever since that Buffalo show.
87:58So shout out to verse and shout out to you, man.
88:01I love doing shows with you. And I jumped at the chance here to get on with you a second time every week like we did last year.
88:09So it's going to be fun. It's gonna be really fun season.
88:12Hell yeah. I am very much very, very happy to have Boone back on the show two times a week.
88:18I'm I'm darn right giddy about it. I'll tell you that what I'm also giddy about is we got a big show coming your way tomorrow.
88:25Josh Norris joins me for our weekly preview on Thursday.
88:28That is going to be live right here at 4 p.m.
88:31Eastern. Subscribe to the YouTube. Oh, gee. Subscribe to the YouTube channel.
88:34I really blew it on the read there. Subscribe to the channel, though.
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88:42We'll see you guys tomorrow, 4 p.m. Eastern. Until then, we are out.