10 fantasy data points you need to know for Week 4

A.J. Brown is dealing with a hurt ankle. Matt Harmon humorously notes that even Brown "with his hurt ankle is looking at this thinking, yeah, I don't miss that one bit," referring to the Eagles' offensive struggles and poor design through three weeks.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is mentioned as one of the few receivers Harmon would rank ahead of Zay Flowers for rest-of-season performance, placing him in the elite tier of receivers.

Matt Harmon notes that Breece Hall is going to miss time, which reduces offensive touches and creates more opportunity for pass catchers like Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq in the Jets offense.

Purdy is a locked-in QB1 to start every week without hesitation; despite upcoming tough matchups against Denver and Seattle in weeks 4-5, he has gettable spots before the bye (Commanders, Falcons, Raiders, Cowboys) and benefits from Kyle Shanahan's elite play-calling and his own rushing ability, which has been exceptional this season.

Caleb Douglas is currently nursing an injury and serving as the vertical X in the Dolphins' receiver room. His absence opens opportunities for Malik Washington and Chris Bell to see increased usage on downfield routes.

CeeDee Lamb ties with Zay Flowers in Trinity score usage, indicating elite offensive utilization.

Matt Harmon lists CeeDee Lamb as one of the receivers he'd take over Zay Flowers in rest-of-season rankings.

Chris Bell is being deployed as a movement guy in the Dolphins' receiver room and could provide cheap fantasy production alongside Malik Washington out of pure necessity, given Miami's historically poor pass defense (32nd in EPA allowed, potentially worst ever). Bell is a speculative pickup for weeks against softer defenses like the Bengals (week 5) and Jets (week 7 post-bye), not the Vikings (week 4).

Chris Olave ranks third in Trinity score usage amongst NFL wide receivers, indicating elite offensive utilization.

Chris Olave is mentioned as a receiver in the conversation about rest-of-season rankings relative to Zay Flowers. Harmon notes Olave was a Pro Bowl receiver last year but hasn't hit the way it needed to, suggesting some underperformance relative to expectations. Harmon indicates he would rank only about six to seven receivers ahead of Flowers, with Olave being in the conversation but not definitively above Flowers.

Matt Harmon references Chris Olave as one of the receivers he'd potentially take over Zay Flowers (maybe), and also as one of the first receivers he tracked when developing usage metrics alongside Garrett Wilson and Nico Collins, noting they had elite isolated metrics and usage patterns.

Christian Watson has been great from the round four to five wide receiver range, outperforming expectations from that draft tier and representing one of the better hits from that range so far this season.

Colston Loveland was averaging only 11 yards per game through the first two weeks of the season, a stark contrast to Kalief Raymond's 71 yards per game. Matt Harmon used this comparison to illustrate the variance in fantasy football and the possibility that early-season production trends may or may not be sticky through the rest of the season.

Dallas Goedert is not available, contributing to the Eagles' reduced use of heavy personnel this year. His absence has forced the team to sign replacement tight ends off the waiver wire and impacts the Eagles' offensive structure.

DeVonta Smith has proven effective against man coverage despite his smaller frame (170 pounds). Matt Harmon defends Smith's ability, noting "I remember when people thought this guy couldn't win as an outside receiver against man coverage because he was too small. Well, it turns out he was, he's been great against it ever since he's hit the NFL field." However, Smith's effectiveness is limited by the Eagles' poor offensive design and lack of screen game utilization due to his size disadvantage in blocking situations.

Drake London ranks second in the NFL in yards per route run among wide receivers with 50+ routes on the season at 3.86 yards per route run, and this efficiency came after just one game with Michael Penix at quarterback. His production spike suggests the quarterback change may be unlocking his potential.

Drake London ranks third in yards per route run (3.86) among wide receivers with 20+ routes.

Matt Harmon identifies Drake London as an interesting conversation now that Michael Penix is the Falcons quarterback, suggesting the quarterback change could unlock opportunity for London. Harmon notes Penix has only been seen against Green Bay so far, but sees potential for London to benefit from the new quarterback situation.

Eli Heidenreich, a seventh-round Navy rookie converted receiver-running back hybrid, saw limited involvement in Week 3 against the Bengals. Matt Harmon expresses skepticism about his role expansion on passing downs, stating: 'I will believe that Aaron Rodgers is going to allow a converted receiver running back hybrid at a Navy rookie, like seventh round pick Eli Heidenreich on the field for passing downs. I will believe that when I see it.' Harmon's overall assessment is that Jalen Warren will dominate the backfield touches going forward, with Heidenreich unlikely to carve out significant passing-down work.

Garrett Wilson is highlighted as a potential breakout candidate with the question 'is it finally happening?' Matt Harmon noted that Wilson, despite being drafted from a range where 'nobody wanted to draft from that range because it's a jet,' has actually been really good so far this season and is one of the guys going later that has really boosted expectations.

Matt Harmon highlights Garrett Wilson as potentially finally breaking through after five seasons in the league without a 15+ fantasy points per game season. Wilson is now averaging 19 points per game with Geno Smith at quarterback, who is playing at an elite level (75.5% completion percentage, no interceptions). Last week Wilson had 13 targets (36% target share) and combined with Kenyon Sadiq accounted for almost 60% of targets and 66% of Geno Smith's passing yards and two of three touchdowns. Harmon notes the Jets offense has lost Adnan Mitchell (hand injury), Breece Hall (out), and Mason Taylor (out), creating more opportunity. Harmon emphasizes the fantasy community hasn't caught up to how good the Jets passing attack looks for Wilson and suggests this could finally be the elite Garrett Wilson season fantasy players have wanted for years.

Matt Harmon believes this is finally the Garrett Wilson season unfolding, stating "I know I could get hurt again with Garrett Wilson, but I think I'm ready to get hurt again this year" and "I don't think I'm going to get hurt again this year." Wilson is balling with strong target opportunity; the route chart shows a good mix of layups under 10 yards and deep out cuts over the middle. Geno Smith is getting those out on time. Wilson has the seventh highest overall usage for a wide receiver in the NFL right now, and they are using him like an elite receiver. With Adnan Mitchell out, the ball is very concentrated to a couple of people, and Geno is pushing the ball downfield. Harmon projects Wilson will finally clear 15 fantasy points per game this season.

Matt Harmon praises Geno Smith's play as 'quietly really, really good football,' leading the NFL with 75.5% completion percentage and zero interceptions on the season. Harmon credits Smith's elite play as the driver behind Garrett Wilson's breakout and the Jets' improved passing attack efficiency.

Geno Smith is playing at an elite level with no interceptions on the season and a 75.5% completion percentage. Matt Harmon notes that Geno Smith has played incredible football and the schedule is not too bad going forward, with games against the Bears this weekend that could be another high-flying affair. Geno is pushing the ball downfield and feeding Garrett Wilson effectively. While he doesn't have to be Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, he understands the assignment and is a lot better than what the Jets had under center last year with Aaron Rodgers injured.

Jamar Chase is mentioned as one of the few receivers Harmon would rank ahead of Zay Flowers for rest-of-season performance. Chase is explicitly listed among the top-tier receivers that would be preferred over Flowers, indicating elite-tier status in Harmon's rankings.

Matt Harmon lists Jamar Chase as one of the receivers he'd take over Zay Flowers in rest-of-season rankings.

Jalen Hurts was signed off the waiver wire by the Eagles, indicating roster depth issues at tight end due to injuries to Dallas Goedert and other pass-catchers. This context affects the Eagles' offensive structure and passing game design.

Jalen Hurts is operating in an Eagles passing game that has remained structurally unchanged despite offseason talk of change. The team ranks dead last in play action rate (down from 24.3% to 9.3%), is 26th in under center rate, and 30th in motion rate through three weeks. This static offensive design limits quarterback upside and receiver opportunities.

Hurts' passing distribution shows minimal middle-field attack: 41% short right, 25% short left, only 14% short middle, and just 2% deep middle. The Eagles offense is heavily reliant on out routes and flat routes to the sideline rather than attacking the middle of the field as promised in the offseason. Matt Harmon notes the offense looks "Russell Wilson coded," with structural issues including 26th-ranked under center rate, 30th in motion rate (same as last year), and 32nd in static score offensive design—dead last in the league.

Jalen Waddle has had inconsistent production through the first three weeks, with one really good week and two less productive weeks. This variance is typical for the wide receiver position but represents a mixed start for a player drafted in the round four to five range.

Jalen Warren was a workhorse in week 3 with 90.9% of backfield touches, joining an elite group of only seven games this season where a running back exceeded 90% touches (James Cook 100%, Jonathan Taylor 96%, Devon Henry 94%, Jameer Gibbs 92%, etc.), indicating elite volume and first-round caliber usage.

Jalen Warren was a workhorse in Week 3 with 90.9% of backfield touches against the Bengals, placing him among only seven running backs this season to exceed 90% touch share. This usage tier (alongside James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Jameer Gibbs, and Devon Henry) averaged 21.5 PPR points across those seven games. Warren also added 3 catches for 49 yards through the air. Matt Harmon states: 'If Rico Dowdle is out, Jalen Warren is in your fantasy lineup, and you don't ask any questions about it' and 'I'm firing up Jalen Warren across all formats and all leagues if I have him.' Harmon projects strong upcoming matchups against the Browns in Week 4 and Colts in Week 5.

Matt Harmon expresses skepticism about Jalen Wright's fantasy viability in Miami's backfield, stating he doesn't expect Wright or Ali Gordon to produce meaningfully going forward. Harmon is willing to be proven wrong but doubts the backup running backs will succeed in Miami's offense, preferring Malik Washington as the waiver target instead.

Juwan Johnson runs 35 routes per game (second among tight ends behind Trey McBride's 36) in an offense that runs 45.7 routes per game league-high; Tyler Shuck averages 44 pass attempts per game (league-high) and 917 passing yards (second in NFL), creating an extremely fruitful environment for Johnson's volume.

Juwan Johnson is playing like one of the best tight ends in the NFL and is a locked-in starting tight end week-to-week; he is third in overall PPR points, has 19 targets and 173 yards (both top-6 among tight ends), and has received 5 of the Saints' 11 red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line, giving him premium money-down role.

Kalief Raymond has emerged as a breakout performer averaging 71 yards per game through week three, far exceeding preseason expectations. Matt Harmon had discussed Raymond in an August episode as a player better in real life than fantasy, but he has now become better in fantasy than anticipated due to the value he brings to the Bears offense. The Bears' offense was working very well with Raymond in the mix against Philadelphia in week three, suggesting his production may be sticky rather than a fluke.

Kenyon Sadiq, the rookie tight end, had 8 targets (22% target share) last week with Mason Taylor out. Combined with Garrett Wilson, Sadiq and Wilson accounted for almost 60% of targets and 66% of Geno Smith's passing yards and two of three touchdowns. Matt Harmon expects Sadiq to be everybody's favorite waiver wire target at tight end this week given the opportunity created by Mason Taylor's injury.

Kirk Cousins has played well for the 3-0 Raiders but has also put the ball in harm's way at times. Matt Harmon noted there are still things to improve from an offensive standpoint and suggested the Raiders' success may feel a little fluky. Cousins has pushed the ball downfield in a pretty decent variety, but the Raiders rank 23rd in rush EPA and 27th in explosive play rate despite being 18th in combined offensive efficiency metrics.

Kyron Williams is being deployed as a pass-catching weapon with abnormally high downfield usage; he has 4.92 air yards per target (sixth among all routes), double the second-place running back (Devon Achane at 2.4), and is receiving 10 non-checkdown targets at 5.1 air yards per target versus only 2 checkdown targets at 2.5 air yards per target, indicating intentional design rather than dump-offs.

Kyron Williams is the clear pass-catching weapon in the Rams offense with 6-7 targets and 70 receiving yards in week 3 (158 total yards from scrimmage without a TD); he commands goal-line work and is being prioritized over Blake Quorum in the receiving game despite Quorum taking some rushing work; Sean McVay trusts him implicitly and he leads the NFL in rushing success rate (63.2% in 2025).

Kyron Williams is significantly undervalued; he is ranked as the 12th running back heading into week 4 despite elite receiving metrics and Sean McVay's trust, and is preferred over Ashton Gentry and Saquon Barkley based on his pass-catching role and receiving yards per game (35 yards per game, up from 16.5 last season).

Lamar Jackson is playing at an elite level as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in NFL history. The Ravens' offense ranks fifth in combined efficiency metrics and fourth in Harmon's static score, with Jackson executing the scheme effectively through motion, heavy personnel, play action, and under-center looks (all at 10th-highest rates). This elite quarterback play supports the offensive efficiency and the concentration of targets to Zay Flowers.

Malik Washington has emerged as a target-heavy option for the Miami Dolphins following Devon Henry's placement on injured reserve. In Week 3, Washington accumulated 10 targets and 2 carries for a 27% target share. The speaker notes that Miami will be forced to drop back frequently and will not rely on the running game with Ali Gordon or Jalen Wright, creating opportunity for Washington. The speaker states: 'I liked coming out of college. I do think that in the right offense, he could be PPR scam ish with the right quarterback, but out of necessity here, like is Malik Washington, somebody we should be' considering as a PPR asset given the Dolphins' offensive constraints.

Matt Harmon and co-host view Malik Washington as a waiver wire target with upside in Miami's pass-heavy future. Washington was a day-two prospect with a neck issue who has been used primarily as a scammy/designed targets player early in his career but can win on routes; he also has three rush attempts on the season, suggesting expanded role potential. With A-Chain out and Miami's pass defense historically bad (0.46 EPA per drop back allowed, worse than 2024 Cowboys), the Dolphins will likely need to go pass-heavy, creating opportunity for Washington despite Miami's historically slow pace and run-heavy approach.

Malik Washington is being used on downfield routes in the Dolphins' receiver room alongside Caleb Douglas (vertical X) and Chris Bell (movement guy). Despite Miami's historically poor pass defense and competitive game against Kansas City, Washington and Bell could provide cheap fantasy production out of pure necessity; however, matchup-dependent—speculative pickup for weeks against Bengals (week 5) and Jets (week 7 post-bye) rather than Vikings (week 4). Matt Harmon explicitly roots for Washington as a potential value play.

Malik Willis looked slightly better in the Dolphins' competitive game against Kansas City, though the improvement won't equate to wins. The performance is being evaluated for potential cheap fantasy production from his receivers rather than Willis himself.

Mark Andrews is third on the Ravens in routes with 13 in Week 3 and is running some of the deepest routes at the tight end position. Harmon describes him as a sacrificial player designed to open things up for the wideouts, which is an unusual role for Andrews. This offensive design prioritizes getting Zay Flowers and other receivers into favorable positions rather than featuring Andrews as a primary target.

Matt Harmon notes Mason Taylor is out, which creates more opportunity for Kenyon Sadiq and other pass catchers in the Jets offense.

Mike Washington earned increased opportunity after playing well in week three against New Orleans Saints in a shootout; the Raiders coaching staff has already stated he's earned more opportunities in the offense. He showed explosive potential on the field, contrasting sharply with Gentry's inefficiency. Washington is currently 34% rostered and should be rostered much higher given that if Gentry misses time due to his ankle injury, Washington would likely become the lead back. Matt Harmon compared Washington to Kenneth Walker and suggested he could be a change-of-pace back with flex appeal.

Nico Collins is mentioned as a receiver Harmon would consider ranking ahead of Zay Flowers if healthy for rest-of-season performance, indicating elite-tier status contingent on health.

Matt Harmon references Nico Collins as one of the first receivers he tracked when developing usage metrics, noting Collins had elite isolated metrics and usage patterns. Harmon suggests that if Collins ever gets a quality quarterback and maintains his level of usage, he can be a superstar, drawing a parallel to Garrett Wilson's current breakout.

Parker Washington had a seventh-round ADP on Yahoo for a long time and has been performing well from that late-round range, representing good value from a later draft pick.

Matt Harmon excludes Puka Nakua from his list of receivers he'd rank above Zay Flowers, citing current injury status as the reason for the exclusion.

Rashad Bateman played only 20-something snaps and routes in Week 3 despite being healthy; Lamar Jackson's offensive scheme does not prioritize the wide receiver two, limiting Bateman's upside even when on the field.

Rashod Bateman is operating as a supporting actor in the Ravens' highly concentrated passing attack. He's on the field for 91% of routes but is playing 26% of his snaps in the slot in Week 3, which is unusual for him (typically sub-10%). Harmon notes Bateman is being used in a secondary role while Zay Flowers receives the primary target volume, with the offense designed to feature Flowers as the focal point.

Rico Dowdle did not participate in practice on Monday heading into Week 5, suggesting he may miss the short-week game against the Colts. Matt Harmon notes: 'If Rico Dowdle misses another game in week five, I would guess he, I would guess Rico misses on the short week. He didn't participate in practice on Monday.' This injury uncertainty elevates Jalen Warren's fantasy value as the primary backup.

The Eagles' passing game structure has remained largely unchanged through three weeks despite offseason talk of change. The team ranks dead last in play action rate (down from 24.3% to 9.3%), is 26th in under center rate, and 30th in motion rate. This static offensive design limits the upside of Eagles skill players, including running backs who might benefit from play action and motion concepts.

Terry McLaurin had 88.6% route participation in week 3 (no one else above 77%) with a 30% target share; he's being moved around more this season with a 21.6% slot rate (highest since 2021) and is running more vertical routes and corner routes from the slot, which should continue to generate opportunities.

Terry McLaurin bounced back strongly in week 3 with 9 targets, 6 catches, 77 yards, and a TD against Seattle despite a tough matchup; he has a nice week 4 matchup against the Colts, who play a lot of man coverage where McLaurin has historically excelled, and is someone you can confidently start.

Zay Flowers ranks first among wide receivers with 20+ routes on the season in yards per route run at 9.36, more than double the second-place JSN (4.35) and Drake London (3.86). He has a first down on 44% of his routes, demonstrating elite efficiency and production despite being drafted later than typical elite receivers.

Zay Flowers leads all wide receivers with 20+ routes by a massive margin with 9.36 yards per route run (JSN second at 4.35, Drake London third at 3.86); he's been targeted on 48% of routes and has a first down on 44% of routes, demonstrating elite efficiency despite part-time snaps due to injury.

Matt Harmon ranks Zay Flowers as a top 10 receiver rest of season in fantasy if he stays healthy; the Ravens offense features him in diverse route concepts with limited competing receiving threats, and Lamar Jackson hyper-targets him when on the field.

Zay Flowers ranks fourth in Trinity score usage amongst NFL wide receivers, behind only Jackson Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, and Devontae Adams (tied with CeeDee Lamb); he's lined up all over the formation with many movement routes, positioning him as the clear focal point of the Ravens offense.

Matt Harmon projects Zay Flowers at 1,245 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 16.1 points per game rest of season (updated before Week 3), though he's currently averaging 21 points per game despite missing time due to injury.

Zay Flowers' efficiency is amplified by limited competing receiving threats on the Ravens; Lamar Jackson does not prioritize the wide receiver two in the offense and will hyper-target Flowers when on the field, making him the primary downfield option.

Matt Harmon ranks Zay Flowers as a top-10 receiver for the rest of season, noting that ranking might be conservative. The Ravens' fifth-best offense by combined efficiency metrics is highly concentrated around Flowers; he's been targeted six times in each of his two games with five catches in each, running 55% snaps in the slot in Week 1 and 82% in Week 3 against Dallas. Harmon emphasizes that everything is designed to get Flowers the ball in favorable situations with yards after catch and deep passes available. Against upcoming Titans and Falcons matchups, Harmon suggests the potential for explosive production.

Zay Flowers has shifted to a slot-based role despite being a Z receiver earlier in his career; he played 55% snaps in the slot in Week 1 and 82% in Week 3 against Dallas. Harmon notes this is unusual for Flowers' career profile but emphasizes the Ravens' offensive design is maximizing his opportunities through motion, heavy personnel, and play action (all at 10th-highest rates). Flowers has caught 5 of 6 targets in each game with one drop against Dallas, and the Ravens' scheme is specifically engineered to get him favorable matchups.

Matt Harmon ranks Zay Flowers between 5-7 in rest-of-season receiver rankings, noting he's been good but hasn't hit the way needed; Harmon would take six to seven other receivers over a healthy Zay Flowers rest of season, including JSN, Jamar Chase, Amon Ross St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and possibly Chris Olave. Harmon suggests Flowers' recent production came against two of the worst defenses in the NFL (Colts and Cowboys), warranting caution on his true level.