Week 3 Preview: One Stat for Every Game

With Mike Onwenu out for the season, A.J. Brown is now probably the focal point of the Patriots' passing game. The source notes this shift in offensive emphasis due to the offensive line deterioration.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets face the Lions in Week 3; the Jets' defense has allowed the fewest first downs in the NFL this season while the Lions have allowed the most (63 in two weeks, second-most through two weeks in the last 26 years per True Media database), creating a stark defensive contrast.

Alec Pierce is ruled out for the Colts' Week 3 game against the Texans, removing a key receiving option from Indianapolis' already-depleted offense.

The source expresses concern about Baker Mayfield facing the Vikings defense in Week 3. The Vikings rank first in pressures, first in sacks, and first in QB hits. Mayfield has taken the third-most sacks in the league through two weeks. The source is very nervous for Mayfield and the Bucs in this matchup and would avoid Bucs players, expecting this game to be ugly and not a spot where Baker gets back to expected performance levels.

Brock Bowers is trending toward playing in the Raiders-Saints game after being limited in practice. His return is characterized as great news for the Raiders offense.

Brock Purdy has an off-target rate of just 1.8% through two games, by far the best in the NFL. The source describes him as surgical and notes finally catching up with others in marveling at his week-to-week performance. The source highlights a specific play where Purdy got outside the pocket, pump faked, ran past a defender, and threw a pass while drifting left to hit Mike Evans in the only spot possible for completion, nearly resulting in a touchdown. The source concludes: "this guy is actually ridiculously good."

Bryce Young and the Panthers have a pass rate over expectation of 9.4 through two games, the second-highest in the NFL; offensive coordinator Brad Idzik continues to call pass plays aggressively even when winning big (Young threw 36 times in a 34-3 blowout over the Falcons), demonstrating commitment to offensive rhythm and scoring.

Bryce Young has emerged as a breakout fantasy quarterback, scoring 28 points per game through two weeks after being one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks coming into the season; he is facing a Browns defense that has given up an opposing passer rating of 112 (27th in pressure rate, only eight quarterback hits in two games), setting up another big game opportunity in Week 3.

The source identifies Bucky Irving as one of the few players worth playing in the Vikings-Bucs game, suggesting he is the primary Buccaneers skill player to deploy despite the expected ugly game script and strong Vikings defense.

Case Keenum is the Bears' number three quarterback, described as a coach being employed to teach quarterbacks how to play football. If Keenum has to play, it would be a disaster for the Bears. He lacks arm strength and can only rely on knowing the offense and getting the ball out quickly.

Brown is quietly getting 22 touches per game, which ranks seventh in the league; while he has been average so far and may disappoint those who drafted him early (like 15th overall), the source expects points to come as he is positioned to be the next player to break out.

The source mentions attempting to trade Travion Henderson for Colston Loveland in a league, noting that the trade was rejected immediately. The source observes the league mate has both Sam Laporta and Loveland with no strong RB3, making the trade offer seem reasonable. The rejection suggests the league mate is a believer in Loveland's upside.

Dalton Kincaid is an early candidate for one of the best picks in fantasy football; he is the number one scoring tight end in fantasy, has the most receiving yards for tight ends, leads in yards per route run, and is playing more snaps than last year (two-thirds of pass routes versus roughly half last year), though still below the 75-80% typical for most tight ends, suggesting further upside.

The source states that Daniel Jones has not been good and his numbers are not very good, expressing concern about his performance heading into Week 3 against the Texans; this is part of a broader critique of the Colts' offensive direction.

Montgomery had only 10 yards rushing in Week 2 against the Bengals; the Texans' run game has been ineffective, though the source still expects him to be playable against the Colts' historically poor defense (allowing 1,029 yards in two games, the most in the NFL and most allowed in any two-week span in 10 years).

Drake Maye's expected points added per drop back ranking has collapsed from first last year to 32nd this year. The source expresses concern about Maye's footwork and decision-making, noting: "his feet have just been a mess" and "Drake May's feet are really scattered." The source observes Maye is not seeing defenders or open receivers, moving out of clean pockets, and appears hesitant. The source compares this to Carson Wentz's early career struggles, though ultimately believes Maye will be elite.

The source projects Garrett Wilson as a must-start this week and believes he could go nuclear over the next few weeks. With the Lions having a horrific defense, the Bears having a bad defense, and the Browns having bad vibes, Wilson faces favorable matchups. The source notes Wilson is getting a third of the targets and states: "Garrett Wilson, from now on, for the next month, could be the number one receiver in fantasy. And that wouldn't blow my mind."

The source believes Gino Smith has been playing better than his stats suggest, with only one touchdown through two games due to weather and running the ball into the end zone. The source projects Gino Smith to throw three or more touchdowns at plus 580 odds (six to one) in the Lions-Jets game in Detroit's dome with a high total. The source states: "I think Gino's playing sharp."

JK Dobbins is dealing with a hamstring injury and is on the Broncos injury report for the Rams game, creating uncertainty in the Broncos backfield.

Chase had 16 catches against the Steelers last year (with Flacco), including a 23-target game where he was frequently uncovered; the Steelers' top cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is currently unavailable due to contract holdout, creating a favorable matchup for the league's best receiver.

Jameis Winston takes over as the Giants' quarterback following Jackson Dart's season-ending injury. The source notes Winston is pretty decent but expresses resignation about the Giants' season prospects, suggesting the team will likely win only three games.

Burrow scores 4 more fantasy points per game against the Steelers versus all other NFL teams; the Bengals have averaged 30 points per game over the last four seasons in matchups against Pittsburgh.

Jonah Coleman sprained his ankle during the Broncos game and is not practicing, making him unavailable for the Rams-Broncos matchup. The source had identified Coleman as their top running back recommendation on the waiver show just two days prior, but the injury occurred immediately after.

The source emphasizes that the Colts need Jonathan Taylor in their Week 3 matchup against the Texans, positioning him as a critical part of the offense despite the team's overall struggles; the Colts' offensive line and defensive issues make Taylor's workload and efficiency central to their game plan.

The source explicitly states they would not play Jordan Addison in the Vikings-Bucs game. Given the expected ugly, run-heavy game script with the Vikings' strong defense and the Bucs' defensive performance against Deshaun Watson, Addison is not recommended as a play.

Jordan Mason is out for the Vikings-Bucs game, removing him from consideration as a play option.

Josh Allen is playing the best football he has ever played heading into Week 3 against the Chargers; the Bills have 10 days rest and are at home with new uniforms and stadium, creating ideal conditions for Allen and the offense.

Despite having two all-pro tackles (Sean Slater and Joel) back on the field, Justin Herbert is being pressured at the second-highest clip in the league; the source notes this is remarkable and disappointing given the elite pass protection he should be receiving, and attributes some of the pressure issues to interior line collapse and injuries to key linemen like Tyler Biotis.

The source identifies Justin Jefferson as the only Minnesota player worth playing in the Vikings-Bucs matchup. Given the Vikings' strong defense and the expected ugly, run-heavy game script, Jefferson is positioned as the primary passing option and the safest Vikings skill player to deploy.

Khalif Raymond is expected to be a key target in the Bears offense if Case Keenum plays. With Keenum's limited arm strength, Raymond will be part of the quick-release passing game, making it Khalif Raymond day.

Kenneth Walker is described as the new Tyree Hill for the Chiefs, functioning as a force multiplier. The source explains: "He's the force multiplier. He's opening everything up. It used to be like sending Tyree deep, and now it's the threat of the run. It's completely opening everything up." Walker is currently on pace for 476 touches through two games, which would be the second most ever, though the source acknowledges this extrapolation is premature and the workload will likely be scaled back.

Kyle Juszczyk, the 49ers fullback, was fined $15,000 for chugging a beer as a celebration on his touchdown. The source finds this ridiculous given that beer is an official NFL sponsor and questions the inconsistency of the league's celebration rules.

With Case Keenum potentially playing for the Bears, Luther Burden becomes a key target. Keenum lacks arm strength and will rely on quick releases to his weapons, making Burden a primary option in the passing game. The source expects Burden to be heavily fed in this scenario.

Malik Nabers has played only 68 snaps with Jackson Dart through two games (technically three, but none were finished). The source expresses frustration about Nabers' limited opportunity and the Giants' overall situation, suggesting the season is essentially over for fantasy purposes.

The source likes Mark Andrews for an anytime touchdown bet in the Ravens-Cowboys game. The source notes Andrews has been one of Lamar's favorite targets and historically finds ways to get into the end zone. The source states: "I just like Andrews in this offense. He's been one of Lamar's favorite targets in the offense. And I think looking back the last couple of years, he just finds the way to get into the end zone."

The source characterizes Marvin Harrison Jr.'s situation as dire, noting his career appears over with the Cardinals and suggesting he might get traded. The analysis attributes his poor performance to his inability to handle adversity; he has been the best player on every team his entire life and has reacted very poorly to losing, lacking effort and focus. The source notes that most elite athletes struggle when physical abilities even out with peers and effort becomes the differentiator, and Harrison Jr. simply doesn't try.

Puka Nakua is probably not going to play in the Rams-Broncos game, as confirmed by Sean McVay on the radio. His absence will significantly impact the Rams passing game and create opportunities for other receivers.

RJ Harvey is dealing with a hamstring injury and is on the Broncos injury report for the Rams game, creating uncertainty in the Broncos backfield.

Darnold is trending towards playing in Week 3 against the Seahawks; the source notes that if Darnold starts 16-0, he would not be benched, indicating confidence in his current role as the Seahawks' starter.

Diggs has been incredible through two games for Washington; the source would still be willing to start him in Week 3 against Seattle despite the team's struggles, though this is characterized as a desperation play rather than a high-confidence start.

With Puka Nakua out, Terrence Ferguson is expected to be the number two receiver on the Rams in the Broncos game. The source believes Ferguson could put Alex Singleton in a blender and will be a key option in the passing game.

McLaurin has only 4 catches through two games (with Jalen Daniels); the source would not trust starting him in Week 3 against Seattle, even in desperation situations.

Tyson Bagent will start for the Bears against the Eagles with Caleb Williams out. Case Keenum is the backup, described as a coach being employed as the number three quarterback who might as well be a mole teaching quarterbacks how to play. Bagent's performance will determine the Bears' offensive approach.