The Ringer Fantasy Football Show

Trevor Lawrence is positioned as a top-five QB option (after Josh Allen, Drake May, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert) due to his second consecutive season of improvement with offensive coordinator Liam Cohen; the source prioritizes QBs with proven offensive coordinators over new play-callers, citing Lawrence's consistency and upside.

Justin Herbert is positioned as a top-four QB option (after Josh Allen, Drake May, and Lamar Jackson) due to Mike McDaniel's arrival as offensive coordinator. The source argues McDaniel is a talent maximizer who has elevated multiple QBs' careers and that Herbert's physical tools (arm strength, processing, mobility) are the greatest fit the Shanahan system has ever seen. Herbert was QB6 through the first nine weeks of last season and averaged 21 fantasy points per game in the four games he played with Joe Alt, which would have been QB1 pace; his performance was hamstrung by offensive line injuries (Rashawn Slater's patellar tendon tear before the season, Joe Alt's injury after four games). The Chargers have made significant O-line improvements (drafted Jake Slaughter, added Tyler Biotish, have Cole Strange at guard). Herbert led all quarterbacks in rushing yards per game through the first nine weeks of last season, and this rushing volume is expected to continue under McDaniel's system. The source projects Herbert for an MVP-level season, citing his superior physical tools compared to Tua Tagovailoa (better arm strength, better processing, better mobility) and the Chargers' offensive line improvement from historically bad (PFF grades: 38/38 left tackle, 36/36 center, 37/38 right guard, 38/38 right tackle) to average. The source argues Herbert's value is being underrated because two hard-to-quantify factors are overlooked: (1) the worst offensive line in the league becoming average, and (2) the coordinator upgrade from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel, which the source compares to the Mike Singletary-to-Jim Harbaugh coaching upgrade that preceded three straight NFC Championship games for the 49ers.

Jalen Hurts is ranked QB10 despite being QB7-QB8 last year; the source cites the Eagles' loss of AJ Brown, Hurts' subpar performance last year, offensive line decline, and reliance on 11+ rushing TDs as reasons for the downgrade. Rushing fantasy points have declined significantly: 9 PPG in 2021, 10+ PPG in 2022, 8.5 PPG in 2023, nearly 10 PPG in 2024, but just over 5 PPG last year. The source attributes this decline to questions about whether the Eagles will continue the 'push play' and whether the offensive line will remain healthy, creating uncertainty about Hurts' rushing volume going forward. The source explicitly states he doesn't want to watch Hurts play and prefers not to draft him, citing the Eagles' offensive struggles and lack of entertainment value despite the floor being respectable.

Jaden Daniels is positioned in tier three alongside other dual-threat QBs (Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence) who could all run for 10+ touchdowns; the source argues these mobile QBs should be consolidated into one tier rather than separated, positioning Daniels as a tier-three option with significant rushing upside.

Floor play in the secondary tight end tier with over 100 targets last year for the Texans. Schultz will likely be available late in drafts or on waivers and offers reliable production (approximately seven points per game) at pick 180 or later, making him a solid value for consistent weekly output.

The source identifies Barner as a potential top-six tight end sleeper for the Seahawks. He had 500 yards and six touchdowns last year, plus 50 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. He played 77% of snaps and was 12th in routes run per drop back, more than expected. The new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury was the tight ends coach on the 49ers for four years with George Kittle, suggesting the Seahawks may feature the tight end more. Barner is a good blocker and can be on the field a lot, and he's been productive in the red zone. The main concern is if Arroyo breaks out and gets more usage, but Barner's blocking ability and dual-threat profile should keep him on the field.

The source projects Ferguson will improve and play significant snaps alongside Colby Parkinson as the third and fourth receivers for the Rams. Both are talented and expected to have really good years, though weekly lineup decisions will be uncertain. Ferguson is available late in drafts.

The source projects Parkinson will repeat his nine-touchdown performance from last year, dismissing regression concerns. He's expected to be a top-tier red zone target for the Rams alongside Terrence Ferguson as the third and fourth receivers on the team. Both are talented and expected to have really good years, though there's uncertainty about weekly lineup decisions. They're available late in drafts.

Sadiq is listed as a first-round pick out of Oregon for the Jets in the secondary tier of tight ends but receives no specific analysis or projection.

Strange had a good season for the Jaguars but is now buried in the depth chart, limiting his fantasy upside going forward.

Johnson is listed as a tight end option for the Saints in the third tier of tight ends being discussed, but no specific analysis or projection is provided.

The source mentions Ferguson as part of the tier discussion but does not elaborate on his role or outlook; he is noted as part of the next tier after the elite tight ends.

The source wants to monitor Kittle's rehab and training camp performance before committing to him in drafts; they need to see him running on the field to assess his readiness.

The source notes Andrews is "so cheap" in draft ADP relative to his historical production; he's being drafted around Kyle Pitts but with players like Jackson Dart, Blake Corum, Dak Prescott, Ramondre Stevenson, Chris Godwin, Jordan Love, and Wondell Robinson going around him. The source frames this as a logical smart draft pick because Andrews has proven he can be a top-three tight end before, and with Lamar Jackson potentially healthy again and the Ravens having cleared out competing tight ends (Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kohler, Patrick Ricard), there's upside if the offense features him. The source suggests that if one of these undervalued tight ends ends up being a top-three option, it will be Andrews because he's done that before.

Tucker Craft was the number-two tight end in fantasy before tearing his ACL in week nine, having played in eight games. He ranked first in yards per touch, first in EPA per target, and first in yards after the catch—comparable to elite receivers like Alec Pierce, Christian Watson, and Jamison Williams. If he had continued at his pace, he would have accumulated approximately 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns, ranking him in tier one alongside Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Craft reports excellent recovery progress with great conditioning and quads, minimal swelling, and no weird pains; he hit 21.9 miles per hour in the offseason (comparable to Brandon Aiyuk's 22 mph) and plans to start week one with no pitch count. With Dobbs and Wicks gone, 130 targets are now available in the Green Bay offense, and the source likes the play caller, quarterback, and volume for Craft. Even with all those other receivers on the roster last year, Green Bay threw to Craft frequently, suggesting his target share will increase significantly in 2025. However, the source expresses concern that Craft's 2024 production was dependent on touchdowns and big plays, with only four catches per game on average, and fears he could regress from 13 projected touchdowns to 5-8 if he loses athleticism or if teammates like Jaden Daniels suffer injuries—a pattern similar to Sam Laporta's rookie-year regression. Craft is currently being drafted around the same area as Brian Thomas and Carnell Tate, which the source views as reasonable value, though tier-three tight ends (seventh through ninth options) are traditionally the worst bet in fantasy.

Ranked 50th among tight ends in the first half of the season (17 total points in 8 games) due to a shoulder injury that caused him to miss OTAs, minicamp, and combine workouts. The source argues that 55% of Loveland's fantasy points came against the three worst defenses (Bengals, 49ers, Lions), suggesting his late-season surge may not be repeatable. However, was used more vertically downfield as a true number-one receiver in the second half of the season, running legitimate receiver routes rather than dump-off/run-after-catch plays, and was the second-best tight end from week nine onward. Could be Caleb Williams' favorite target under Ben Johnson's offense, suggesting ceiling upside with bigger games (e.g., 130-yard performances). Uncertainty exists around how the Bears' offense will look with Roma Dunze, Luther Burden, and Loveland all healthy, and Caleb Williams' volatility adds risk.

High-volume, floor-oriented play who was fourth in routes run and fourth in touches per game at tight end through the first 10 weeks of the season, averaging 9 PPR points per game with a 21% target rate, 50 catches, 600 yards, and 3 TDs. Will be the centerpiece of the Colts' passing game with Pittman gone and Pierce dealing with a foot injury. Maintained a 20% target rate from week 11 onward despite the Colts' offensive struggles, suggesting his role is stable. Expected to deliver reliable weekly production and will get 'a shitload of volume this year.'

Raiders tight end who will serve as the inline tight end in Clint Kubiak's offense, with Brock Bowers positioned to handle a more versatile role. This complementary split suggests Mayer will handle traditional blocking and short-yardage situations while Bowers operates as the primary receiving threat.

Elite tier-one tight end who dominated last year with nearly 100 more points than the next closest tight end in half-PPR, winning the 'crutch Ruppel crown' at the position. However, faces significant headwinds in 2025: new offensive coordinator Michael Fleur (from Rams) will shift from Cardinals' league-leading 38 passes per game to a more balanced 57% pass-rate approach similar to the Rams; Cardinals drafted running back Jeremiah Love in round three signaling a run-first philosophy; quarterback uncertainty with Jacoby Brissett in contract dispute and potential for Carson Beck to play in fantasy playoffs, creating risk of poor quarterback play during championship weeks. McBride's touchdown production with Kyler Murray was poor (7 TDs in 39 games), though he performed much better with Brissett (10 TDs in 12 games). Overall environment expected to change dramatically from last year's pass-heavy setup.

Elite tier-one tight end ranked as a top-25 overall player. Rookie year production of 112 catches and 1,100 yards set the tight end rookie catch record by 20 catches and ranks second all-time for any rookie position (behind only Puka Nacua). Now in Clint Kubiak's Raiders offense with Kirk Cousins at quarterback—a significant upgrade from Gardner Minshew and Aiden O'Connell. Kubiak has called him a 'football robot from heaven' and will make Bowers the focal point of the passing game. Projected to be drafted in the middle of the second round or higher, positioning him as a potential first-round tight end. Demonstrated elite receiving ability by burning first-team All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie in his rookie year.

Last year's tight end six ranked player scored only 1.5 points per game more than tight end 17 (Dalton Schultz), illustrating the minimal scoring differential between mid-tier and lower-tier tight ends and the limited value of precise ranking distinctions outside the elite tier.

Mid-round tight end sleeper strategy that consistently fails to deliver. The source notes a recurring pattern of targeting Henry in round eight expecting a breakout, but tight ends outside the elite tier typically average only eight fantasy points per game regardless of draft timing, making Henry an unreliable value play.

Puka Nacua appears very focused this offseason (evidenced by golf lessons), which the source interprets as a positive sign for his 2024 season. The source suggests he should be considered a top-tier wide receiver pick and is safer than Jalen Smith-Njigba due to lack of offensive uncertainty.

Jamar Chase is a safer wide receiver pick than Jalen Smith-Njigba. The source would not draft JSN over Chase due to the certainty of Chase's role and production, stating 'you know what you're getting with those other two guys.'

CeeDee Lamb is presented as a safer wide receiver pick than Jalen Smith-Njigba. The source would consider Lamb a more reliable option due to role certainty.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is presented as a safer wide receiver pick than Jalen Smith-Njigba. The source would consider him a more reliable option due to role certainty.

Rashid Shaheed is expected to be more ingrained in the Seahawks offense this year and has been a big talking point in Seattle this offseason. He's finding more comfort in the offense, which will increase his target share and role relative to last year.

Jalen Smith-Njigba's target share and role are at risk this year due to offensive coordinator change (Clint Kubiak to Brian Flurry), increased competition for targets (Rashid Shaheed gaining comfort in the offense, tight ends AJ Barner and Elijah Royo stepping up), and defensive game-planning that will focus on stopping other receivers; the source expects the Seahawks offense to fall off in efficiency, which will hurt JSN's production despite him remaining a key target, and would not draft him over Puka Nacua, Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, or Amon-Ra St. Brown due to role certainty concerns.

Travis Kelce scored the third-most fantasy points among tight ends last year despite falling off significantly; he was tight end nine in points per game and, if Patrick Mahomes stays healthy, should remain in the top eight in fantasy points per game this year.

Mike Evans is an established veteran receiver who will retain significant volume and offensive role despite being a familiar draft name; the source argues against fading him just because he's been in the draft pool for years—he will remain a big part of his offense.

Devante Adams is an established veteran receiver who will retain significant volume and offensive role despite being a familiar draft name; the source argues against fading him just because he's been in the draft pool for years.

Lamar Jackson is projected to return to top-10 quarterback status this year as he recovers from injury; he was injured for much of last year and averaged only 3.6 rushing fantasy points per game (down from his career average of 6+ points per game as a runner) and 16 total fantasy points per game overall, but his historical rushing production should rebound once healthy.

Christian McCaffrey is noted as an exception to the rule about drafting established veterans; he will still be a very high pick despite being an older, familiar name, indicating his elite status transcends the typical fade-the-boring-name principle.

Lamar Jackson's 2024 season was significantly diminished by injury; he averaged only 3.6 rushing fantasy points per game (down from his career average of 6+ points) and 16 total fantasy points per game (likely 15th–16th among QBs), but should rebound to top-10 QB status if healthy in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence, at 6'6", has rushing upside similar to other tall mobile quarterbacks; he had 9 rushing touchdowns last year and can run frequently, providing dual-threat value below the elite tier of Allen and Hurts.

Josh Allen is one of only two quarterbacks (alongside Jalen Hurts) capable of scoring 10+ rushing touchdowns in a season, giving him elite dual-threat upside that separates him from other mobile QBs.

Jalen Hurts is one of only two quarterbacks (alongside Josh Allen) capable of scoring 10+ rushing touchdowns in a season, giving him elite dual-threat upside that separates him from other mobile QBs.

Travis Etienne signed a $12 million per year deal with the New Orleans Saints and is part of a Saints offensive rebuild designed to improve the team's ability to run and pass. Etienne's 'abilities running back will make it easier to pass' in an offense that also added offensive lineman David Edwards and drafted receiver Jordan Tyson. The source believes 'the Saints are going to win this division' and that the team is 'going to be pretty good,' positioning Etienne as a key piece in the Saints' offensive scheme under head coach Kellen Moore.

The source identifies Jordan Tyson as the Saints' draft pick at receiver, described as "the highest upside receiver in the draft at Arizona State." Tyson's impact in the passing game alongside Chris Olave will make it easier to run the Saints' offense. The source frames Tyson as part of a coordinated offensive build: offensive lineman David Edwards makes it easier to run and pass, Tyson's receiving impact makes it easier to run, and Travis Etienne's running ability makes it easier to pass. The source believes the Saints will "win this division" with these additions.

Kyler Murray projects as a top-12 quarterback floor with upside to top-10, based on two key factors: (1) Murray has 'basically never not been a top 12 fantasy quarterback or scored less than like 17 fantasy points a game' (excluding last season's ACL recovery), and (2) Kevin O'Connell's quarterbacks have 'basically other than JJ McCarthy, never not had a top 12 fantasy quarterback that he has coached or has a guy that scored less than 17 fantasy points per game.' Murray is going as a fringe top-20 quarterback in drafts despite stepping into a Vikings offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Juwan Jennings. The source calls this 'like kind of a cheap shot of the guy, maybe being like a top 10 quarterback on a good offense playing indoors.' Murray could reasonably be the last starting quarterback taken in a 12-team league, making him a value pick. The source notes Murray is 'probably the most underrated player in the NFL at this point, because Kyler, I think at this point people have forgotten how talented he is' due to his time in Arizona being a 'wasteland football wise' and off-field distractions (video game memes). In his five games last year after returning from ACL injury, 'his legs seemed to come back a little bit' and 'there's some rushing potential with them.' Justin Jefferson's enthusiasm for Murray is notable: 'the way that Justin Jefferson talks about Kyler Murray is very funny. If you read between the lines, especially he's like, he just knows how to put touch on the ball,' which the source characterizes as 'such a shot across the bow of the other quarterback who's there right now' (JJ McCarthy). However, there is a caveat: Murray and JJ McCarthy are splitting reps at minicamp/OTAs, and the source is 'very curious to see when training camp comes, if they just allow Kyler to take all the reps or how long they split that,' as splitting first-team reps all August could hurt his development.