PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Today
Do These Seventeen Stats MATTER? (07/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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1 hr 16 min
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Jul 22, 2026
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Wed, July 22, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00This past summer, my wife and I took my parents, our son, and our granddaughter on vacation to Tennessee.
0:06We wanted to get out into nature, so we found the perfect cabin on Airbnb where all four generations could stay together.
0:12The amenities really made the trip special. We had our own hot tub with a mountain view, a fire pit for late night s'mores, and a full kitchen.
0:21When you're traveling with four generations, eating every meal out gets expensive, so it was great to make bacon and eggs for
0:27breakfast one morning and grill steaks for dinner another night.
0:30Booking a stay like this gives you the flexibility to vacation how you want, where you want, with the people who matter most.
0:37But it got me thinking. Airbnb isn't just great for finding places to stay.
0:42You can also list your own home when you're away.
0:45It's nice that the same platform I use to book family vacations can also help me earn a little extra money during
0:51high-demand weekends without having to upend my daily life.
0:54Honestly, listing my house feels like a smart thing to do because it's just so incredibly practical.
0:59I'm already going to be traveling anyway, so why not earn a little extra money to put toward an upcoming vacation, help
1:06offset the cost of my flights, or upgrade my travel gear?
1:09Turns an empty house into an easy opportunity while you enjoy your own time off.
1:13Your home might be worth more than you think.
1:16Find out how much at Airbnb.com/host. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
1:20What a play! Can you believe this? You have no idea.
1:24It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
1:29He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
1:34And welcome to Fantasy Football Today. Stat attack for you today on Wednesday, July 22nd.
1:38Adam Azer here with Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg.
1:41And I was thinking, yeah, we probably get about eight, nine stats to throw at you.
1:46Do these stats matter? How many do you think we have, guys?
1:5015. 17. 17 stats that might matter. I think most of them will matter.
1:54I would have counted them and then been right on 17.
1:57You counted them? I could have. You could have.
2:00Yeah, I also numbered them. That I just guesstimated.
2:03I numbered them in the notes, too. So, you could have just looked at that.
2:07That would require looking at the notes. It would, yeah.
2:10So, we got stats on Jameer Gibbs, Jamison Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Jalen Coker, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, T.
2:16Higgins, Michael Wilson, Terry McLaurin, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, Wanda Robinson, pass-catching running backs, Devon Achan, top five running backs, tight ends.
2:22I think that was 17. Team eight wide receivers.
2:25Anyway. Good morning, guys. We have a CBS Sports Network show at noon tomorrow.
2:29I said 1 o'clock on Tuesday. The show is actually noon Eastern tomorrow.
2:33We're on CBS Sports Network. So, our podcast will be a little bit earlier, 9.30 a.m.
2:38How many people's schedules did you just mess up?
2:40Very sorry. I'll have to take a later lunch now.
2:44Since I want to get to all 17 of these stats, let's go through the news and notes pretty quickly here.
2:50Sam Laporta, great news. He was fully cleared for training camp after a herniated disc in his back.
2:55Disc. You said disc. I said disc. Yes. I really thought I said disc.
2:59But it herniated. And anyway, he's back. He's good to go.
3:03That's great news. Sam Laporta is tight end blank in your rankings.
3:06Five. Wow. I think he's sixth for me. Wow.
3:09Sam Laporta is tight end eight in Fantasy Pro's ADP going 82nd overall.
3:13But right after Tucker Craft. So, we'll see if and Harold Fannin Jr.
3:17They're basically tied. Okay. Next note is that. Have you ever herniated your disc?
3:21I currently have a herniated disc in my back.
3:24Yes. I've been herniating my discs since I was like 19.
3:27It's fun. It's awesome being fat. Oh. I don't even know where we're going right now.
3:32James Boyd of the Athletic thinks that. I didn't know where we were starting when you started talking about herniated discs.
3:38And I didn't hear disc. All right. James Boyd of the Athletic thinks that Jonathan Taylor could be a training camp hold in.
3:45We don't like that. We don't. I said disc.
3:48I don't know. I'm not 100% sure. I think Nando and Davey heard that.
3:52Producer. Let's ask our producer, Sam. Sam. Did you just say yes?
3:56Did I say disc? I did not hear disc.
3:58I got to be honest. Thank you, Sam. I think he heard three of those letters.
4:03I got to edit that out. Oh, gosh. Totally unintentional.
4:06Carolina. So let's talk about Carolina, Jamie. Right tackle Taylor Motley.
4:10We're just going to skip over Jonathan Taylor being a hold in.
4:13Well, he's not a hold in yet. He might hold in.
4:17But if he does, it's going to suck. Yeah, it is.
4:20That's a problem. Can't love him as much as we, unless the hold in lasts like a week or something.
4:26Right. Hey, Jonathan Taylor, please. Thank you. I mean, if there is, is there, there obviously are, but like, he's up there,
4:33like in terms of player having leverage for wanting more money.
4:36For sure. Like he's, he's got to be top five of that list.
4:40Yeah. Yeah. Well, yeah. He's not on today's show.
4:42So we'll come back to Jonathan Taylor some other time.
4:45How about Taylor Moten, the right tackle for Carolina?
4:48So hopefully he gets better, but he's out indefinitely.
4:51And it looks like he's going to miss time in the regular season with a blood clot in his lung.
4:57And already their left tackle, Ikea Kwan, who had a knee injury that he suffered in the playoff game.
5:03So he's probably not going to be there for the start of training camp.
5:07They have Rashid Walker, who was a three-year starter for the Packers.
5:10They signed him in the off season. They drafted rookie Monroe Freeling in the first round.
5:15So I guess there's some depth at tackle, but yeah, really not.
5:19Yeah. It's not. I mean, for both of your starting tackles to be out right now and probably into the season, at
5:26least certainly with, with Taylor Moten, it seems that way.
5:29Oh, that's not good. Dave, not good. Bob. It's not good for anybody in this offense.
5:33You can certainly look at the run game and start worrying about what it means for Chuba or for Jonathan Brooks, but
5:40also think about Bryce Young and I can double check the numbers, but I don't remember him having good stats when he's pressured.
5:47That's most quarterbacks, but him especially just not good when he's pressured.
5:50It might mean he has to get the ball out faster, could limit the offense, could really lower the upside for all the wide receivers that are there.
5:59This is one to watch. This is something to be very, very aware of as we enter training camp season.
6:05And Arizona offensive lineman Isaiah Adams, who could be a starter for them.
6:09He's facing weapon charges in Canada. Also a note from Ian Rappaport.
6:12The Cardinals do think they agree that Jacoby Brissett deserves a raise and just a matter of getting that number and, and getting that contract sign.
6:20Not as the same type of leverage as Jonathan Taylor, but just not as high on the list for obvious reasons.
6:27Parker Gabriel of the Denver post thinks that the Broncos are going to play a lot of three receiver and four receiver sets.
6:34That's fun. Alex Lewis of the athletics says that the Vikings are still optimistic about Max Brosmer.
6:39I only bring this up if you're in a, maybe a dynasty league, a super flex dynasty league.
6:44There might still be. Oh, please start training camp already.
6:47If we're talking about Max Brosmer and Miami rookie wide receiver, Chris Bell is on the NFI non-football injury list.
6:53He tours ACL last year at Louisville. If you red shirt season incoming, I don't know about that.
6:59I hope I'm wrong because he's super talented. He can be really good, but there's no reason for the dolphins to rush
7:05him in what will be a rebuilding year. Yeah.
7:08And if you get hurt, even if it's a, even if it's a football injury, if it happens in college, you'll go on the non-football injury list.
7:16All right. Do these stats matter? I have them ordered one through 17.
7:20Here we go. We're going to start with. You rank them?
7:23Uh, no, this one I think can be quick.
7:26A stat on Jameer Gibbs, which was inspired by an email.
7:29I got someone saying, look, I'm a lions fan.
7:32Sorry, but I try to look up the name of the emailer.
7:36I'm a lions fan, but I got to tell you a little worried about Jameer Gibbs because he, he thought he wore
7:42down at the end of last season. So the stat is after scoring 55.4 PPR fantasy points against the giants in week
7:4912, Jameer Gibbs averaged only 3.1 yards per carry in six games.
7:52He averaged 18 fantasy points per game in those six games.
7:56Um, but if maybe the only concern that we might have about Jameer Gibbs is can he handle the full workload?
8:02Does this stat matter that he struggled down the stretch averaging 3.1 yards per carry?
8:07I think it speaks to where the offensive line was.
8:10I think it speaks to him having to adjust to being the full-time guy, which I'm sure he spent some time this off season.
8:17Remember the conversation we had with Scott Turner yesterday about what they tend to tell players about their bodies, you know, in
8:23terms of what they want, you know, adding more muscle, losing more body fat, et cetera.
8:28I'm sure those conversations been had about what he needs to do to get himself in better shape if that's it.
8:35But I'm sure it's just a combination of everything of where the lions were, where Gibbs was compared to where he probably is now.
8:42And let's face it, as much as we want to just sit here and say, he's getting every touch, they're going to use Isaiah Pacheco.
8:49They're going to use other running backs. They're going to give him opportunities to take breaks.
8:54It's not just going to be like, he's walking in and becoming Derek Henry.
8:58He's still going to have somebody to share with to whatever degree.
9:02I think obviously it's Pacheco, but I have no concerns.
9:05I mean, you know, again, like when you look at the two guys at the top, it's very clear that there's going
9:12to be only two running backs drafted in the first five picks.
9:15I shouldn't say first five because McCaffrey can still get drafted, but the top two running backs on everybody's rank list are Jameer Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.
9:23Both guys are going to share to some degree.
9:26Both guys in Robinson's case prove has proven that he can be the workhorse guy.
9:31And I think Gibbs is going to prove that he could be that guy too.
9:35Okay. I'm not concerned because just the year before last year, he had 155 carries in weeks one through 12.
9:41So how could he have worn down from weeks 13 on the year before he had 154 carries in weeks one through 12, almost exactly the same.
9:49And he averaged 5.5 yards per carry in his last six games.
9:53So I don't think the workload got to him, but the email was a good one and a good point that to bring up from Fitz in Detroit.
10:01Thank you Fitz for that. All right. Next stat is Jamie stat on Jamison Williams.
10:06What do you got on Jamo? I mean, we've talked about this.
10:09It was kind of reiterating where he was with Laporta without Laporta.
10:13So the first nine games of the season, and really it's there's that two game window before Laporta left where it was after their bye week.
10:21And that's when we started to see Dan Campbell calling plays and we started to see Jamison take a spike.
10:27But if you just look at the number, I don't have it in front of me.
10:32So if you look at the numbers that he had, okay, so there's so with Laporta healthy 10.9 fantasy points per game, 4.8 targets per game.
10:40And that's really the number that's a little concerning without Laporta, 15.2 fantasy points per game, 7.4 targets per game.
10:46Again, the coaching changed in terms of who was calling plays.
10:49So Dan Campbell taking over play calling really helped James and wins.
10:53But I think the biggest boost was obviously without Sam Laporta there.
10:56So as you said, to start the show, Laporta healthy, no issues going into training camp.
11:01I think that just gets to put a little bit of a damper on Jamison Williams.
11:06And the thing to keep in mind with him, yes, he's finished as a top 20 fantasy receiver each of the last
11:12two years, but you're going to get those spike games.
11:15And when he has those spike games, you're going to be thrilled when he has, he had two games, one in the
11:22first half of the season, one in the second half of the season, he got you under one fantasy point in PPR.
11:29Did not have a catch in either of those two games.
11:32So just keep in mind that there's going to be some down weeks when everybody's there.
11:37Again, new play caller, Drew Petsing. We'll see how much that impacts what the tight end play is because was it really
11:43most, mostly a Trey McBride thing or is that a Kevin Stefanski tree thing for where Petsing comes from?
11:49Like Slean on his tight ends. I think Jamison Williams, if you treat him as a good number three receiver, a high
11:56end number three fantasy receiver, you're in great shape.
11:58If you're drafting him to be a consistent weekend, week out starter, you might be a little bit disappointed if everybody stays healthy.
12:05This, that definitely matters again, 4.8 targets with Laporta, 7.4 targets without Laporta, but I'm glad you mentioned the change in the two games before Laporta's injury.
12:14And one of the stats that I'd throw in with that is that in those first seven games, when Jamison Williams on
12:20pace for 73 targets, um, in those seven games, that's horrible.
12:23He had a 17 yard, a dot in the next two games after the buy, he had a 10 yard, a dot.
12:30So they obviously, that's when the play color change, right?
12:33And that's huge. Obviously they were using him in different ways.
12:36The route depth was similar, but the targets were much different.
12:40Uh, so I always look at Jamo as he, he needs to have a lower rate out.
12:45He is not going to be effective as just this field stretcher guy.
12:49And he can do a lot of things. Dave, your take on, um, on this split with Laporta and with Jamison Williams.
12:55And let me just throw one last thing in there in the last, I want to say eight games of, uh, 2024.
13:02Everyone was healthy. Pretty much the Porta missed one game, but pretty much everyone was healthy.
13:07And Jamo had a 19.7% target share. And Laporta had an 18.4% target share.
13:11So I know that the Porta campus is saying the Porta completely dominated targets compared to Jamo this year or like 2025,
13:18but it wasn't necessarily the case in 2024. Okay, go ahead.
13:21There's been 24 games when Laporta has had at least six targets.
13:25Jamo has been a non-factor in all, but five of those 24 games.
13:28So 19 out of 24 games where Jamo hasn't been great for fantasy scares me on Jamison Williams.
13:34However, I agree with Jamie. I think if you draft Jamo as a number three wide receiver, kind of let's put the
13:41boom bus sash over his shoulder and say that there will be weeks where he's going to get you 20 PPR points on five catches.
13:48And then the next week it's 8.7 on four catches or three catches.
13:52And you're just going to have to take your lumps better in best ball at this point than in, than in redraft leagues.
13:59And I was toying with the idea of, okay, could I draft Laporta and Jamo to the same team and kind of handcuff them?
14:06And I, I don't think you really can because their ADP is fairly similar.
14:10And it, I just don't think that it's worth it to get Laporta and Jamo and, uh, hope that one is good each week.
14:18And when you're probably going to be starting both.
14:20So I don't like that idea either. The one, the one thing that might be in everybody's favor, you talked about this
14:27yesterday, Adam is the safeties are banged up. They just lost the cornerback, you know?
14:31So we saw this in 2023. We saw it in 2024.
14:35We saw it in 2025. You know, whenever these guys start to miss time in the secondary, um, you know, Hutchinson factored
14:41in there as well, when he would broke his leg.
14:44Like there's, there's a lot of room for Jared Goff to throw when this defense is this bad.
14:50How many career games have Laporta and Jamo had six plus targets in?
14:54And remember they've been teammates now for three seasons, seven, right?
14:57So he missed eight games last year. There's been probably not that many, I'll say 15 combined games that they've missed.
15:03It's yeah. Right. Three, 15 missed games over three seasons.
15:06So there's probably been five games where they both had six plus targets.
15:10It's actually 10 career games when both have had six plus targets.
15:14Okay. That doesn't necessarily mean that they've both been great at the same time.
15:18Right. Yeah. Okay. Uh, let's take a break. We've got a teammate wide receiver stat that it's really, it makes me think a lot.
15:25Yeah. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.
15:28So last season we had what? Two teammates, Dave, that, uh, yeah, the Bengals guys did not quite do that.
15:34Just short for Cincinnati's, but tell us what we need to know about repeat success of, of finishing top 10 or top
15:4112 per game for teammate wide receivers. The off season listeners have heard this one before.
15:46So welcome to everybody that took off the off season.
15:49And it's just now joining FFT for the lead up to training camp from 2014 through 2024.
15:54There were 17 wide receiver teammates that finished top 12 in PPR points per game of those 17 duos.
15:59Just one repeated as top 12 in PPR points per game.
16:03And that was the Vikings combo of Stefan digs and Adam feeling way back.
16:07I think it was 2017 and 2018. There've been four others that repeated in the top 15, and that includes Jamar and T last year for Cincinnati.
16:15But otherwise there is not a great track record.
16:18And the impetus to look this up was CD lamb and George pick and specifically ranked as top 12 wide receivers.
16:24And when I read this stat and I thought about it, it made me nervous to rank them both highly to begin
16:31with, but I still have them both top 12.
16:33Part of it is because I just don't love a lot of wide receivers to be on that elite tier this year.
16:40I think I like lamb better. I think he's safer than pickings.
16:44It makes me nervous to take pickings as a top 20 pick blows my mind.
16:4817 wide receiver teammates finishing top 12 per game and only one of them repeating, right?
16:53The makings are there for the Cowboys to do it.
16:56Right. But it's, but I'm sure we felt that way about a lot of the 17 and the Rams guys.
17:02We don't expect Adams to be top 12 again.
17:05No, we're not drafting that at all, but look at the ADP for, and it's not just the, it's all, it's the Bengals guys.
17:12And the ADP isn't that bad for T Higgins, but we're really the, the general public is really into the Cowboys wide receivers.
17:19So I think it's, I think it's a little bit of a mistake on top of it.
17:24Jamie brought up the defense for Detroit and how they're getting worse.
17:28This defense for Dallas is going to be considerably better this year.
17:31They'll have Quinn and Williams for the full season.
17:34They've added like four to five new stars. It might be more than that, Adam, but this Dallas defense should at least
17:41on paper be a hell of a lot better than where they were last year, which means fewer track meets for the Cowboys.
17:47What was it? It was four of the 17, the following year finished top 15, 15.
17:52Yeah. So Pickens is going right around wide receiver 10, depending on what ADP you look like you look at.
17:58If he's, if, if they're both top 15 and you're taking Pickens five receivers ahead of where he finishes, but all those
18:05other guys are around two picks, let's just say, or the, the 20 through 28, let's just say an ADP.
18:11Is that a loss? Are you okay with it?
18:14It's a small loss. I mean, it also depends on how consistent he is, what that point total is.
18:19Like if he's, if he's wide receiver 15, but it's 16 points per game, no one's really going to be that upset.
18:26Both are over. How many, Jamie? 16 PPR points per game.
18:29Then they're, then they're both going to be top 12.
18:32I think I, I would think it'd be hard.
18:35Yeah. If it's a year where all the wide receivers bounce back.
18:39So lamb is 17 points per game and Pickens is 14 points per game.
18:43I mean, I guess I shouldn't say that you're right.
18:46It was based on last year. 16 is a high number based on the previous year.
18:5116 would be around wide receiver 15 or so.
18:53So I shouldn't have dismissed that. And by the way, we're all, we're talking about this.
18:58Like CD lamb is guaranteed to be better than Pickens, which I don't think is the case.
19:03Right. I mean, Pickens could be better, but he was more consistent when the two were on the field together, but he
19:10was worse at least in the last 10 games or whatever.
19:13Right. All right. It's something to think about. It was close.
19:17Something to think about. Next stat is Dave's Christian McCaffrey stat, which yes, we've heard, but it's worth repeating.
19:22It really comes down to just how many touches he had last year.
19:26It was 450. 17 running backs have had 400 or more touches in a season since 2010.
19:3110 of them followed up their 400 touch year with an injury, a PPR per game decline of at least 20% or both.
19:38And that's about 60% of the sample. And that includes Saquon Barkley from last year.
19:43Remember Saquon had that monster 2024. It's 2025, just not as good.
19:46Four of the 17 running backs were close enough to their previous year's PPR per game average to make fantasy managers feel good about them.
19:54And then three of them were actually better than the year where they had 400 plus touches.
19:59But of those seven, four that were about as good, three that were better, just two of them were 28 years or older.
20:06We know that Christian McCaffrey is 30 years old.
20:09We also know that in his previous two seasons, when he had 400 plus touches the year after he suffered a significant
20:15injury that took him off the field for quite a while, one season in one case, two seasons in another case, I
20:22am nervous to draft Christian McCaffrey where he's going at ADP.
20:25See, I actually look at your stat kind of optimistically on Christian McCaffrey.
20:29So you have, you've got 17 running backs with 400 plus touches in a season since 2010 and 59% of the set
20:36of the sample either got hurt or declined by at least 20%.
20:39So you've got seven though. Seven of the 17 did well, right?
20:43Either did better than the previous year or did close enough where fantasy managers were fine.
20:48If you take those seven and then you add in the ones that lost 20%, I don't know how many that is, but now we're probably over half.
20:56Now, if he loses 20% of his production from last year, he's averaging 20 points per game.
21:01So I, I think there's enough, like it seems like there's a better than 50% chance.
21:06He averages 20 points per game. I think it's the latter part of what they've said that should make you in the
21:13most nervous is that we have three seasons of him with over two seasons, three seasons, um, it's two with 400, three with 350, right?
21:20So the two with over four with touches and one, and he was young.
21:25And that's the one that Dave was referencing where it was, he missed, he played 10 games the next two seasons combined
21:31after his first season with over 400 total touches.
21:34And that was in Carolina. And so I think the biggest issue is, is like, we have a recent example of this
21:412023 going into 2024 when he was limited to four games.
21:44It's just so nerve wracking when it comes to, he's now 30.
21:47He's done this now multiple times that the, the history is not on his side here.
21:52So like, if this was never having happened before, then I think Adam, you're right on, on saying, okay, maybe he cannot,
21:59maybe he doesn't fall into this trap, but he's fallen into the trap.
22:03I know. Some people just don't care. Some people just look at it as fluky stuff.
22:08Oh, I mean, listen, we, we went through this with Barkley last year.
22:12You know, we gave every example of why this could fail.
22:15And I think the biggest thing that didn't happen was he stayed healthy.
22:19Right. Or it didn't get hurt. Excuse me. Because that was the concern for these guys when they have this much work.
22:25But like, again, like we gave every example of touches, 2000 yard rushers, all these things.
22:30And Barkley took such a huge step back. And so, yes, you can ignore it.
22:35It's, it's, it's, it's totally fine. But like there, there's so many red flags.
22:39It was almost a 40% decline on a PPR per game average for Barkley.
22:43Yeah, it's bad. All right, let's go to our next.
22:46So 20% is like the minimum. So like the ceiling for McCaffrey could be staying healthy, does find 20 PPR points per game, but the floor is zero.
22:55I guess you could say the floor is zero for everybody, but I think it's a little bit more elevated for Christian
23:01McCaffrey, given his history, given his age, I just think these are things you need to know before you draft McCaffrey.
23:08I'm not saying that he's going to be a total bust and don't take them unless it's round two.
23:13I still have him as a first round pick in my rankings, but I'm just not taking him where other people are taking him.
23:20I understand. If 41% of the running backs in this sample with these massive workloads were close to as good as they
23:27were last year or better, then I don't think it's fair to say that his ceiling is 20% worse of what he was last year.
23:35So I don't know. Okay. Sorry. That we get the clear cut handcuff because that'll make people a little bit, I think
23:41more comfortable when you draft McCaffrey knowing, okay, it's Jordan James or it's Kalen black.
23:46You know, who's going to be that guy seems like it's going to be Jordan James, but just certainly a story, storyline to follow in training camp.
23:54It's that number five. Here's a stat about tight ends.
23:57If you draft McBride or Bowers at the two, three turn, how many fantasy points?
24:01I'll ask you guys. How many fantasy points do you think they need to score to justify that average?
24:07How many do they need to average? At least 16.
24:10Okay, good. That's the number I came up with.
24:13So I looked at all of the tight ends over the last 16 points per game, not for the season.
24:19Yeah. All of the tight ends in the last 10 seasons who average 16 or more PPR fantasy points per game.
24:25There were 11 of them. Five of them were Travis Kelsey and no other tight end has repeated.
24:31No other tight end has done it twice. 16 PPR fantasy points per game.
24:35Every single team that those tight ends were on, those 11 tight ends, every single team that they were on through for
24:41at least 251 yards per game, which is about 4,250 yards.
24:45Nine of them through 28 or more touchdown passes.
24:48Now I made this same argument last year against Trey McBride is I didn't think the Cardinals could possibly throw for 4,250 yards or 28 touchdowns.
24:55Well, they did because they led the NFL in past attempts.
24:59They threw for 4,326 yards and 29 touchdowns. So it's always possible.
25:02But as you sit here and you look at the Cardinals passing game and you look at the Raiders passing game, isn't
25:09it hard to see them, Jamie throwing for 250 yards, throwing 28 touchdowns because pretty much every tight end who has scored
25:1616 points per game over the last decade has been on that kind of team.
25:20I mean, you could see it happening for the Cardinals just because of what just happened a year ago and how their, you know, season may unfold.
25:28The difference is, is there's a new head coach now and a much, much, much, much improved run game, you know?
25:34So I would say, no, I don't see that happening.
25:37The Raiders probably the same thing because I don't think they want to be that pass happy, especially however many games Fernando Mendoza starts.
25:45Why would you want to put it that on a rookie and make him, you know, go through that with, you know,
25:51still a lot of questions and what the passing game could be.
25:55That said, you're talking about two tight ends that could easily lead their team in targets.
26:00One already did it last year by a significant margin.
26:03I think the other one would have done it, or I'm sorry, he did do it, but targets per game, at least.
26:09These, these two are unicorns, you know, and, and what they offer now, again, the question becomes, do you see that happening?
26:16And if you don't, there's a very strong two or three tiers after those guys that you should be very interested in,
26:23you know, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, those type of guys, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah Likely, you know, wherever you want to stop the
26:29list going, you know, including Travis Kelsey and George Kittle, you know, toward the bottom of that.
26:34But like these two could absolutely smash in terms of Bowers and McBride.
26:38I think Bowers has an easier path to doing it because of who's around him.
26:43Um, but look, McBride already showed you that he could do it.
26:46I just don't think we're getting that much target opportunities for him and certainly that much volume in the passing game.
26:53I think that's the biggest decline for the Cardinals.
26:55Yeah, it's tough. It's a case against them, but I don't want to be too negative on McBride and Bowers.
27:02I certainly think I've had stats like this before in the past that I thought were so good and so compelling.
27:08And then someone just goes and breaks it, breaks the trend the next year, because that's how these things work.
27:14So, uh, for example, Jackson Smith and Jigba last year, if you had told me the Seahawks were going to be one
27:20of the lowest past volume teams in the NFL, I would have said, there's no way Jackson Smith and Jigba could have a great season.
27:28Maybe you can finish as wide receiver eight or 10 or something, but not that good.
27:33So it does happen. But, um, yeah, it's not a great, just think about the quality of offense for those tight ends.
27:39And it might be hard to see that for Bowers and McBride.
27:43All right, Jamie, let's talk about, you know, I was thinking 10 or old McMillan would be a good, good player for this episode.
27:50And then you came through with this Jalen Coker slash McMillan stat.
27:54What do you got there? So the last five games, including the playoffs, the targets were almost identical.
27:59Six per game for Coker, 6.2 per game for McMillan.
28:02And the fantasy production was not the same. Uh, both had some spike games in there.
28:07Both had a dud game in there as well.
28:10Uh, but 14.1 PPR points per game for Jalen Coker, 9.8 PPR points per game for Ted Arroyo and McMillan.
28:16I did like, I think I've, I didn't see who reported.
28:19So I apologize, but about moving maybe McMillan more in the slot this year.
28:23So give him some opportunities to move around. I think that's encouraging, you know, give him some different opportunities, different looks, uh, different mismatches.
28:31But we started the show talking about the offensive line concerns for the Panthers.
28:35young clearly is not the type of quarterback, at least what he's shown so far, that feels like he's going to help his receiver.
28:42And in the case, McMillan could be exceptional, get better to a degree where it's like, Oh, okay.
28:47He'll overcome some of these things because his quarterback is so great.
28:51I just don't think that's price young. So they add another receiver in Brazel who they drafted, who I think is more of a field stretcher.
28:59Uh, but Coker, one of the best values you can get late in your drafts and McMillan, I think might be a little overrated.
29:06So I'm not drafting him in round three. If he's sitting there middle to the end around four, I'll take him.
29:12I just don't think he's going to be there.
29:15Um, I would rather just wait and see if I get Jalen Coker and what that production looks like.
29:21It's not going to be McMillan, but again, there is a sample size last five games of the year when they were
29:28making a playoff push and a playoff game against the Rams where Jalen Coker was better than Teddero McMillan.
29:33Yeah. And McMillan had only a 21% target share in those five games compared to 27% target share in the first 12 games of the season.
29:41One other thing they, they just, they ran, I think they ran the fewest plays in football in that stretch, uh, that
29:48you're talking about the last five games of the season.
29:51If not the fewest was the second fewest. They just had a really bad environment for offense.
29:56They were throwing about 27 and a half, 27 pass attempts per game for Bryce young.
30:01So no one was going to do well there.
30:03Dave, how much does this matter to you? The fact that Jalen Coker outperformed Teddero McMillan and neither of them were really all that good.
30:11I mean, neither of them were all that targeted down the stretch.
30:15It makes me want to only draft McMillan at a good value compared to ADP.
30:19And it makes me want to target Jalen Coker with a middle of the late round pick.
30:24The worry that I've got is that neither one could be particularly awesome for fantasy.
30:29And they, they just end up being dregs in my lineup or stones on my bench where they're just not going to
30:35be able to help me out that much. I'm very worried about just the overall offensive environment in Carolina.
30:41But to Jamie's point, like the stats between those two receivers in those last five games are eerily identical.
30:47And in some cases it favors Coker. And that makes me a little bit nervous about just buying into the hype of Teddero McMillan.
30:54At the same time, those were not the first five games that Jalen Coker played that season.
30:59And they weren't even the first five games with a normal snap share.
31:03They just, you know, before that he was barely targeted.
31:06So you're taking a small sample basically of Coker and McMillan, and then you're sort of cutting it in half.
31:12And we can run into problems when we do that.
31:15And McMillan going into his second year, you'd think he, he had a lot of, sorry, he had a lot of very
31:22encouraging metrics, but target per out run rate was not really one of them.
31:26You're hoping that he takes a jump there. Go ahead, Jamie.
31:29This isn't a take Coker over McMillan scenario. This is just a reason to sort of be concerned about McMillan.
31:35And to your point, Adam, beginning of the season, Jalen Coker wasn't playing.
31:39So, you know, sometimes there's a ramp up period for guys that miss training camp for guys that get injured.
31:45We see it all the time. And so was he finally healthy at that point?
31:50Again, another target in the mix with the receiver that they drafted, who's going to get opportunities.
31:55They still have for what it's worth, you know, why am I forgetting his name?
31:59Liget, you know, he'll get chances also, you know, so I think I know why you're forgetting his name.
32:05You know, so there's, there's still just, I think when you look at it, like, yes, he is by far their best talent.
32:12Yes. He is by far a player who could be a number two fantasy wide receiver.
32:17I just think that he's getting pushed up a little bit too soon and too high in drafts for where I think
32:23you should be comfortable taking him in the offensive environment that he's in.
32:27Luther burden or Ted or McMillan, Ted or Luther, Luther burden.
32:31I don't know why I said Luther burden, Garrett Wilson or McMillan, Garrett Wilson, G dub, Javante Williams or McMillan.
32:37I got my mill and higher. Okay. By the way, his target per hour, run rate, it wasn't that bad.
32:43It was 22.3%. Basically a little bit below George Pickens, but with, with the, with the roster they have, you'd think that he has a chance.
32:50McMillan to have a 25, 26% target per hour, run rate, which would be really damn good.
32:56Next stat. Oh, my Drake London stat. How much does this matter guys over the last two seasons?
33:01Let's see. 2024 London average 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game in 14 games with Kirk cousins.
33:06That's good. It's not great. 23 points per game in three games with Michael Penix jr.
33:11In 2025, he averaged 19.7 points per game in nine games with Penix and 8.3 points per game in three games with cousins.
33:18Of course he was playing hurt at the end of the year, but much better with Penix than with cousins.
33:24Is this a London stat? Is this a Brock Bauer stat?
33:27Cause he's going to be playing with cousins today.
33:30Or is this just kind of fluky? Doesn't really matter.
33:33Remember quarterback competition in Atlanta, Dave, how much does the, to the Penix splits matter for London?
33:38Good. Well, just keep in mind that the reason why the number was so high in 2024 is because London had a blow up game in week 18.
33:47If you take that out, it's, it's not quite as good.
33:50I think it's more important to just look at what happened last year with London and those first, how many games was it?
33:57The first nine games, the average almost 20 PPR points per game.
34:00Those were with Penix mostly or all all that's good.
34:03Uh, I do worry about two of being his quarterback and, and that lowers the upside for Drake London a lot more in terms of shorter throws.
34:11Ball's going to get out fast. And I think London will be okay as long as two is the quarterback.
34:18And then we don't know how Penix is going to be as he works his way back from another significant injury.
34:24So you have him right. Let me pull up the ranking.
34:27Sorry, real quick. I have him 10th Drake London.
34:30Okay. Where's Jamie have Drake London ninth. Yeah. If, if he said today to a tongue of my low is going to
34:36be the starting quarterback for the entire season, where would you drop?
34:40Where would you rank London? I'm anticipating that. So that's where I happen.
34:44Yeah. Okay. If I said Michael Penix is going to be the start of the entire season, where would you rank him?
34:51Same spot probably. Yeah. I don't, I don't see myself putting them over the likes of Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, AJ Brown.
34:57I'd rather have those guys. I'll take them over Nico, but agree with the rest.
35:02Okay. Next up stat number eight, Dave's Garrett Wilson stat.
35:05We're in a little bit of a wide receiver run here.
35:08Uh, we're going to take a break first and then eight is great with Garrett Wilson.
35:13We'll be right back with stat number eight. Don't hurt you anything.
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36:10It's where America shops for furniture. These are Garrett Wilson stats.
36:13They don't have anything to do with Garrett Wilson, but it does have everything to do with his quarterback and his play
36:20caller, both of which are new this year. Gino Smith, six years as a full-time NFL starter for an NFL team.
36:26Only three times has he had a receiver, not multiple receivers, one receiver get at least 14 PPR points per game.
36:32And it was never more than 15 PPR points per game.
36:36That all came in his days in Seattle with three different wide receivers.
36:40Now, Frank Reich, 10 years as a play caller in the national football league.
36:44Only three times has he had a wide receiver average, 15 plus PPR points per game.
36:49And his track record is to utilize multiple running backs and tight ends in the passing game.
36:5454.8% is the overall target rate to wide receivers from Frank Reich's quarterbacks in his 10 years as a play caller.
37:00Now, I'd be surprised if Frank Reich goes in and says, yeah, we shouldn't get Garrett Wilson the ball that much.
37:06And Garrett Wilson should get a lot of targets, but we've seen years from G-Dub where he gets a lot of targets
37:13and he's still not an outstanding fantasy wide receiver.
37:16So I like him. I obviously love the talent.
37:18And we talked about him, uh, I think on a number of occasions with Scott Turner who coached him last year, he
37:25sees the talent in him as well, but I'm nervous about the, the surrounding, uh, atmosphere world around him with Gino is
37:32the quarterback and Frank Reich is the play caller.
37:34Not to mention the fact that the jets have been hyping up Adonai Mitchell.
37:39They drafted two pass catchers in the first round and they've got three running backs that they want to get involved.
37:45This could be a situation where things are just spread out a little bit too much and not enough touchdowns will be
37:52there for Garrett Wilson to be a great fantasy wide receiver, just a good fantasy wide receiver.
37:57And does that's that matter? The, you know, the Gino Smith part, especially, I guess it, I think I just would add the context, David.
38:04He really had two receivers in Seattle, right? He either had lock it in Metcalf or Metcalf and JSN.
38:10He never had a situation where one guy was clearly the, the best guy, right?
38:14Except maybe half a season with JSN when Metcalf was hurt or partial season, just like three games off the top of my head.
38:22So maybe that's, what's different there, but yeah, they, yeah.
38:25When you look at this group of wide receivers going around the three, four turn, I think I know the ones that
38:31you guys are going to be avoiding. Zay flowers, Garrett Wilson, T Higgins, Teddero, McMillan, and a Mecca, a Buka flowers, Wilson, Higgins, McMillan, a Buka.
38:39I think you think we're going to be avoiding them.
38:42I think you're going to be avoiding in that group, Wilson and McMillan and favoring flowers, Higgins and a Buka.
38:48Okay. I don't know if it's, well, first off, most of our drafts, we don't usually see those guys lump together.
38:55So I, I think you, you sort of just figure out which ones you like best.
38:59I think you're right, Adam, at least for me, I would put Wilson and McMillan at the bottom of that group.
39:06But the thing about Garrett Wilson, it was nice to see him score the touchdowns last year with, you know, you could argue some still questionable quarterback play.
39:14He had four touchdowns in his first five games.
39:17So that's encouraging that he was able to do that.
39:20I think Dave's point about the rest of the receiving core and what it looks like, you know, the addition of Sadiq
39:26and Cooper, what Mitchell does, all those guys have been added since Garrett Wilson suffered his knee injury last year.
39:32He never played with Adonai Mitchell. And so we'll see how this all works together.
39:37But I do think you make a great point, Adam, like Geno Smith has never really been asked to support like one
39:44alpha like Wilson is because Wilson's still the best receiver of this group.
39:48And so, you know, how many targets will he get by comparison to everybody else per game for the season?
39:54You know, we'll have to see how that all shakes out.
39:57But obviously Garrett Wilson's track record is not that encouraging because we haven't seen him do it over a full season.
40:03We saw the stretch before Devante Adams for the stretch before he got hurt last year.
40:08And then now he's going to have to do it in this again, environment where there's some, some talented young players with a quarterback that's still somewhat questionable.
40:16The thing that's nice is the offensive line should be much improved over the last couple of years.
40:22They've been building up this unit and I think it's going to be in a good spot.
40:27The schedule is very favorable. So hopefully that helps Garrett Wilson and really the entire offense.
40:32And so we'll see if Gino Smith can sort of live up to it and play the entire year.
40:38But if you get him at the right cost, I think it's worth it, you know, so put him behind those guys,
40:44at least for me, you know, I'd rather have a book.
40:47I'd rather have to hang on as I remember what he said.
40:51Um, but if you get him five, six picks later in round four, that's great.
40:56Yes. Okay. Let's go to Dave's T Higgins status.
40:58We continue our wide receiver one, a run stat number nine, by the way, 17 is going to be tough today, but
41:05we're going to go rapid fire later in the show, but stat number nine, does it matter?
41:10T Higgins, this is an easy one to get through 15.1 PPR points per game in six games last year for T
41:17Higgins, when Jamar chase and Joe burrow were healthy.
41:19Uh, two of them were 15 plus PPR and includes a 27.2 bomb in week 14.
41:24And then the year before 2024, 12 games. He played 18.5 PPR points per game.
41:29Those were all with chase and burrow. If there was a wide receiver duo, that's 15 top 12 and PPR points per game.
41:36It's in Cincinnati and it's Jamar chase and T Higgins.
41:39This should encourage you to draft T Higgins as at minimum, a top 15 wide receiver.
41:43Yeah, I love it. I break down their stats when the big three are all playing a normal snap share.
41:49And in four of the last five seasons, T Higgins has averaged at least 15.3.
41:54Yeah. At least 15.6 fantasy points per game, uh, which is 15.4.
41:58Sorry. At least 15.4 fantasy points. We knew it was there, but that's really good.
42:02And that's why I think it's very safe pick, you know, in that same area.
42:07If you, if you think Garrett Wilson's too risky, if you think those guys maybe have more upside, Higgins is super safe, right?
42:14The downside is that we know that T Higgins misses time.
42:17Yeah. It's hard to count on him for 17 games.
42:20And Burrow 21 touchdowns, the last 25 games, right?
42:23Wow. Something to like that. He's a touchdown machine.
42:25There's a wild stat about his target per out run rate.
42:29Like it's, it's insane. Um, T Higgins in the last four seasons, T Higgins is the only wide receiver to finish top 16 per game.
42:36And PPR with a target per out run rate under 22%.
42:39And he has done it twice. So it's because he scores a lot of touchdowns.
42:44Okay. Next stat. 21 touchdowns, his last 27 games.
42:4721. Wow. All right. And what'd you say before 21 and 25?
42:50Yeah. Oh, well now he sucks. That's 21 and 27.
42:53Jamie's Michael Wilson. That is our 10th stat. Go ahead.
42:56It's just the numbers of Michael Wilson with, and without Marvin Harrison jr.
43:00You know, so Wilson last season was obviously incredible in the games that you remember was a league winner.
43:06Uh, but when Marvin Harrison was healthy in the games with Jacoby Brissett specifically, but, uh, when Jacob, when Marvin Harrison was
43:13healthy, uh, in the 12 games that he played, Michael Wilson was such a non-factor.
43:17So, um, I'm, so I don't misquote myself. I'll get it.
43:20Um, it was, uh, sorry. Where is it? So I got it for you if you want.
43:26Sorry. 12 games with Marvin Harrison jr. Playing. So this even includes the games that Harrison left early, but in those 12
43:32games, Michael Wilson averaged 7.6 points per game. And in the five games without Marvin Harrison jr.
43:37He averaged 25.9 points per game. It's really the targets though.
43:41Yeah. Matter here. 13.6 for Wilson without Marvin Harrison, 4.8 with Marvin Harrison.
43:45Like that's crazy. Amazing. So yeah. And then how do you think that's crazy?
43:49How does it, how, how does it, uh, Oh, you know what?
43:52Here's a better question. Convince me that Marvin Harrison jr.
43:55Should be going ahead of Michael Wilson. Well, I think that's the reason why is the targets per game when they were
44:02both healthy last year and really what Michael Wilson even did the year before.
44:06Um, the, the encouraging thing is, you know, what Michael floor came out and said is that, you know, he wants Michael
44:13Wilson to be as Puka Nakua and he wants Marvin Harrison to be his Devante Adams.
44:18Well, we know how many targets Puka Nakua gets, and that's the favorable thing.
44:22It's not what Michael Wilson will do with those opportunities because he's not Puka Nakua, but if he's getting chances, clearly as
44:28we saw last year, he could be absolutely dominant.
44:31The question is, can he get those chances? And I think that's what everybody's skeptical of.
44:36So again, going back to what we said about Trey McBride, the run game will be better.
44:41It's going to hurt the entire passing game. We don't know how many games Jacoby Brissett will start versus Carson Beck or
44:48even Gardner Minshew, uh, especially if Brissett is a holdout, you know, as Scott Turner said, that score is sort of screws
44:54up the entire offense when the quarterback's not there with what you're trying to install, especially with a new coach.
45:00Uh, but obviously there's reasons to be concerned about both of these guys.
45:04I think just looking at it as if the track record holds, and if you just want to use the, the stats
45:11that we gave when both guys were on the field, there's a nine target difference for Michael Wilson comparatively to when Marvin
45:18Harrison plays versus when he doesn't play nine targets per game, 13.6, 4.8.
45:21Like that's just absolutely amazing how great he was last year, but how much he just took advantage of Marvin Harrison, not being on the field.
45:29There's also the issue that in LA, there was no Trey McBride on the field.
45:34The Rams had a bunch of different tight ends and they'd use them.
45:38And sometimes we'd see Colby Parkinson pop off for a big touchdown streak, but nothing like Trey McBride.
45:43And I think Lafleur would be foolish to not utilize McBride.
45:46And if McBride's still going to get his, and I think he will, that's going to hurt the target upside for both
45:53of these wide receivers, neither of whom are as talented as Nakua or frankly, as Devante Adams.
45:58So I'd be, I would be a little nervous trying to make the comparison that one of these receivers is going to be one of these guys.
46:06And the other wide receiver is going to be other when both aren't perfect.
46:11Both can be covered tightly by one guy, if need be on an opposing defense.
46:15Whereas Trey McBride has just been such a monster and such a good, good part of this Arizona offense.
46:21And they added a big piece of the offense in Jeremiah love this off season.
46:25That could hurt everybody involved in the passing game for Arizona.
46:29But Michael Lafleur already said that Trey McBride is going to be his Tyler Higbee.
46:33Well, it's going to be Tyler Higbee at the end of 2023 or 2022 or whenever that was one of the best
46:40six, six game or five game stretches in history.
46:42So real quick, Marvin Harrison jr. Around six or Michael Wilson at the eight, nine turn, which do you like better?
46:49Marvin. I'm not drafting either. Okay. Next stat. I think I'm up now.
46:53Yeah. That number 11 is Adams. Terry McLaurin stat.
46:55I just want to remind everyone how good Terry McLaurin was two seasons ago.
47:00He averaged almost 19 points per game in his last six games.
47:03Then he averaged 18.2 points per game in three postseason games.
47:07In fact, if you go back to 2024, Jaden Daniels didn't really play that well the first two games of the year.
47:13And then after that, he and McLaurin were so good.
47:16McLaurin averaged 17.3 points per game in the last 15 regular season plus three postseason games of 2024.
47:22But he did that with only 7.1 targets per game.
47:25So there's just no way he's going to score 17.3 points per game on 120 targets.
47:29It was right around that. But I just, I just think it's important to remember how good he was.
47:35And I think this is a player in McLaurin where you could just say, I don't care about anything that happened in 2025.
47:42I'm going to completely erase it from my memory.
47:45So he was probably too good in 2024, but I don't even think we need to spend much time on this.
47:51I just think it matters to remind people of the connection between Daniels and McLaurin.
47:56It was really impressive. And, you know, he's, he's older though.
47:59He's 30 now, I think. 31. 31. 31. So would you take, you know, the guys we've been talking about McMillan, Garrett Wilson or McLaurin?
48:06I'd rather have McLaurin than Wilson and McMillan. Wow.
48:09I've got Wilson one spot higher in full PPR.
48:12Now that could change depending on who they add, because I'm sure they're going to add somebody else, but the rest of
48:19this receiving core is just so bad. Right. You know, I should say it's, it's incomplete because Antonio Williams could be a nice young player.
48:26And, and still we might get some numbers from these other guys.
48:30Like maybe this is the year that McCaffrey steps up and does something for them.
48:34But like this, this should be the like target hog of all target hogs.
48:38But he's, that's the thing. The weirdest thing about McLaurin is he's just never commanded targets like a true number one wide receiver.
48:45He's never been in this situation. He kind of has.
48:48He's pretty much never played with good receivers before.
48:51Right. I mean, yeah, but there's been guys that like, you know, Debo Samuel is still going to get opportunities.
48:57Like there's nobody that you could look at. Even like, I like Chico Conquo.
49:01I think he's got an opportunity to be a fantastic steel at his cost and great situation to walk into because again,
49:08there's not a lot of opportunities for other people that have proven themselves.
49:12And he's got a better resume than almost everybody on the roster next to Terry McLaurin.
49:17But like this, this group is bad, man. Like go back to what we said yesterday or two days ago about the
49:23chiefs without Rashi rice or what the dolphins look like right now.
49:27Like you take McLaurin off that team. He gets hurt at all.
49:30It's bad news. Yeah. And here's a great comment from the chat reminding me from Lee price that David blouse said, how
49:37can I get Terry McLaurin 10 targets a game?
49:40Right. Which I think was a little bit more of an exaggeration than anything else, but it does bring up a fantastic point.
49:47This is a new offense in Washington that I think is going to evolve.
49:51Jayden Daniels game and open the door from a McLaurin to finally get north of 7.3 targets per game, especially if they don't add anybody.
49:59You could have convinced me a month ago that Brandon Iuke would be a commander.
50:03Now Brandon Iuke has convinced me that Brandon Iuke will not be a commander.
50:07And I'm not sure they're going to add somebody significant.
50:10Oh, if Stefan Diggs has no issues, it's Stefan Diggs.
50:13But Stefan Diggs has some issues. And so I wonder if Washington stays away from that and they just go with what they have.
50:20And that does open the door for McLaurin to get seven and a half targets per game and to be used differently
50:27than he has been over the last couple of seasons and maybe differently over the course of his entire career.
50:33I don't know how I feel about David Blau as a play caller yet.
50:37It's his first year, but the offense that he's going to run, mostly West Coast with some air raid stuff mixed in,
50:44some influence from Ben Johnson, it could be very, very good.
50:47It really comes down to how Jayden Daniels takes to it.
50:51And I'm optimistic about that because I've seen Jayden Daniels evolve as quarterback before.
50:55And now he's got the chance to do it again and he should be successful.
50:59So the more I talk myself into Terry McLaurin, the better I feel about taking him with a late round three, early round four pick.
51:07Okay. It just, it would be a little strange for a 31 year old.
51:11He'll be 31 in September, by the way, for a 31 year old to, you know, get his say his heart highest
51:18target per outrun rate or his highest target share of his career.
51:21It would be a little unusual, but the opportunities there, I was actually hoping to find Heath's projections or anyone's projections.
51:28Basically I saw a sports line. They have the targets a little low for McLaurin, but I feel like if I ask
51:34Heath, which team has the biggest separation between number one in targets and number two in targets in the NFL, I wonder
51:41if Washington is currently that team, but I think it might be the Raiders with, yeah, I was about to say the Raiders could be that.
51:49I thought that that too. Um, but I don't know.
51:52Uh, maybe so any who, um, let's go to, let's go rapid fire on our last six stats.
51:57Jamie, you're, these are all Jamie and Dave. So Jamie, you can give a stat and tell me, tell me if you
52:04think it matters and Dave, do you think it matters?
52:07Let's start with your DJ more stat, Jamie. So it's really just DJ more with, uh, his play caller.
52:12Now who we had in Carolina, Joe Brady, the head coach of the bills was the offense coordinator in Carolina in 2020
52:19when Teddy Bridgewater was the quarterback for 15 games.
52:22And in 2021, when Sam Donald was the quarterback for the majority of the season, a more average, at least 13.9 PPR
52:28points per game in each of those two years in 2020 with Bridgewater and Brady calling plays 66 catches, 1193 yards, four
52:35touchdowns, but a career best 18.1 yards per catch, 118 targets in 15 games, 2021, 93 catches, 1157 yards and four touchdowns on 163 targets.
52:43This was, if you recall, when we would talk about DJ more, Oh, if he gets more touchdown opportunities, he could be amazing.
52:50Think about Zay flowers now. Uh, then he goes to Chicago has that huge breakout season.
52:54Um, I don't know which version of DJ more we're going to get.
52:58As we talked to Scott Turner about this yesterday, I think, you know, that seems like most people run the league.
53:05They're going to feed DJ more. They have a second round pick and $40 million worth of reasons why to feed DJ more.
53:12Uh, Josh Allen was much better when he had Stefan digs again, a younger Stefan digs at that time when he acquired
53:18him as his top pass, uh, pass catcher, but they need a player like this.
53:23So don't look at what he did last year in terms of his targets, 85 targets.
53:27I think he's going to fly past that 163, probably unrealistic.
53:31I would take the over if you're watching on YouTube of the 109 targets that sports line has.
53:36I think we're looking at around 130 targets of DJ more stays healthy.
53:40So, uh, for me, he's a top 21, you know, I'll call him top 20 wide receiver.
53:45Um, I would take him as early as round four, prefer to get him in round five.
53:50Uh, but I just think we're, we're seeing DJ more, Joe Brady went and got a guy that he's very comfortable with, familiar with.
53:58And I think it's going to be a great situation pairing him with Josh Allen.
54:02And we see one of DJ mores best seasons.
54:05All right. I hope Jamie's right. Um, but the only receiver that we've seen do really well with Josh Allen has been Stefan digs.
54:12Digs had nine targets per game. Is that what we're going to get out of DJ more?
54:17I bet against nine targets per game. And I might bet against eight targets per game too.
54:22That being said, if we're drafting him in that round four or five range, I'm pretty sure you're not drafting him too
54:29close to his ceiling and he can still be a good fantasy receiver.
54:33Dave, let's go to another AFC East receiver. Your AJ Brown stat.
54:36Matt, this is again about Drake may and not necessarily about AJ Brown.
54:40Cause I think we know how everybody feels about AJ Brown.
54:44We've seen him with our own eyeballs play well when he's healthy last year, there were 13 times when may through seven
54:50plus targets to one single wide receiver of those 13, 10 times the receiver had at least 13 PPR points and eight
54:57of those 10, it was 15 plus PPR points.
55:00I wish that number were higher and we could talk about, you know, 20 PPR points per game and half of them.
55:06It really wasn't that high. It was about a quarter of them, maybe even less than that for, for the wide receiver in new England.
55:14But I do think AJ Brown is going to get a lot of targets and we've seen it from him before.
55:20He had seven plus targets in 13 of 17 games in his first year with Philadelphia, 49 of 70 games with Philadelphia, including the postseason.
55:28That's 70% of the times and eight of 12 games when he played 50% of the snaps.
55:33This is a naser stat. All right. 12 games where he played at least 50% of the snaps in Tennessee with Vrabel
55:39eight times, seven plus targets per game. I think we know AJ Brown's going to get a lot of targets.
55:45I think we know that as long as he's healthy, he's going to be productive with them.
55:51I think we know that Drake may is a good ball thrower all over the field.
55:55It makes me encouraged to draft AJ Brown as a top 10 fantasy wide receiver.
56:00Yeah, it does. I wish I do wish those numbers were a little bit higher.
56:04Drake may when he throws some to somebody seven times and the fantasy points, but you just have to hope that Brown's
56:11going to do more with those targets than anyone on the Patriots could have Jamie.
56:15Oh no, Dave, stay with you. It's that number 14 Wanda Robinson stat barf.
56:20I know. And if you look at the list of wide receivers and targets per game over the past two seasons combined,
56:26Wanda was top 10 at 8.8 targets per game.
56:29And I, I'm, I like Wanda Robinson spot because he's still with Brian table and Brian table's the one who brought him into the league.
56:37He's the one who fed him targets. Even when the league neighbors had his breakout rookie year, eight targets per game, each of the last two seasons.
56:45But it's just ugly with the production is. So he's a PPR only consideration for me.
56:50And it just makes sense that you go after him just hoping that he can continue to get eight targets per game in a role.
56:57He's been playing in his entire career, uh, with Brian table as his coach.
57:01Of course, table now the play caller of the offense in Tennessee.
57:05It's just the funny thing about, obviously it stands out when you look at the names that he's listed here with.
57:11It's crazy. The, the, which version of Wanda Robinson are we getting?
57:15Because the one that we got last year when neighbors missed the majority of the season was an amazing PPR fantasy wide receiver.
57:22The one we got the year before when the targets were almost identical was a very disappointing PPR wide receiver.
57:28And so I think the question is like, how much do you believe in Cardinal Tate?
57:33How much do you believe in this offensive environment that he's in?
57:36Yes. Dable obviously has him for a reason. And I think the opportunities should be there because I don't think that at
57:43this point in their careers, Calvin Ridley toward the end, DK or I'll manner at the beginning, like, you know who the top two guys are.
57:51It's Cardinal Tate and Robinson, and he should get those chances.
57:54But I think we get fewer chances because of the quarterback.
57:57I don't think Cam Ward is going to over target Wanda Robinson.
58:01Like we saw certainly from Jackson Dart last year and the quarterbacks that we had in 2024.
58:06And then it's a matter of where does the production end up?
58:10Because when he was on the field with another alpha, again, the guy that he saved my targets with the last two
58:16seasons, Malik Neighbors, he just wasn't that good. So like he caught the ball a lot.
58:21He just didn't do a lot with it. So I think if you buy into Cardinal Tate and you buy into, you
58:28know, still the targets being there, that's the version that I'm expecting of Wanda Robinson closer to the 2024 guy.
58:34Adam, should we give the audience a little peek behind the curtain on what we were talking about yesterday?
58:39Oh, with what exactly? We were talking about a lot yesterday.
58:43With the number of plays Wanda Robinson had that resulted in one to 1.9 PPR points.
58:48I guess so. It kind of was so. Like, I don't know if this means anything, but he led the NFL.
58:54He led all the wide receivers in number of plays where he got between one and 1.9 PPR points at 57.
59:00And then he only had 19 between two and 2.9.
59:03All the other great receivers that get a lot of targets had a much better or much closer number of plays between,
59:10you know, the tiny little catches and the catches that could actually like get a first down.
59:15Yeah, because I think that's what he is. The point there is that he doesn't do much after the catch, even for a guy.
59:22And last year, his ADOT wasn't that low. It was 8.5, which is kind of low.
59:27But the years before that, 6.2, 5.3, 4.7 yard ADOT for Wanda Robinson.
59:31That is, you know, among the lowest in the league.
59:34And he still doesn't really do that much after the catch.
59:37So you're just, you know, if he doesn't get 100 and 120 targets, it's going to be a problem.
59:43He's got 140 targets two straight years. I think, I disagree with Jamie on Cam Ward not throwing it to him.
59:49I think he's an easy target to throw to.
59:52No, no, no. He's going to throw to him.
59:55He's not going to uber target him like we've seen the last two years.
59:59And I think he does. Do you think he's getting 8.8 targets per game again?
60:03I think he gets over eight targets per game.
60:06I wouldn't draft him as a top 36 receiver otherwise.
60:09But I think... If Cardinal Tate is a complete bust, I would take the under by a lot.
60:15I actually like Tate better, but I think Tate will be the one with more efficiency, more touchdowns, obviously more yardage.
60:21But I bet Wanda has more catches. I guess, Jamie, it's worth pointing at everybody's going, oh, no Malik Neighbors last year.
60:28But he did do it two years ago with Malik Neighbors.
60:31Just not as... No, no. Again, the question was, did he not get targets?
60:35Yes, he got targets. It's what he produced when Malik Neighbors was on the field.
60:40But what would be different about that? I mean, the difference...
60:43Right, so he got 140 targets 2024 and did very little with them.
60:47He had 140 targets last year, and he did more with them.
60:50I don't know that Neighbors necessarily had anything to do with that, unless you want to say the ADOT went up because Neighbors was out.
60:58That's possible. Because he did have more... All right, I know we're going long here.
61:02First three seasons of his career, Wanda Robinson, he had 12 targets of 20 or more area yards combined.
61:08Last year, he had 21. And he caught 11 of them for 351 yards and two touchdowns.
61:13Were they on the Dallas game in week two?
61:16The Dallas game in week two, and also that flea flicker.
61:19Against Detroit in week 12. Big parts of Robinson's season.
61:22So maybe he just got more downfield targets, which he needed because Neighbors was out.
61:27Other than that, I can't really think of a reason why his production would have been that much better.
61:33Other thing is, he wasn't even that good last year.
61:36It was just a terrible year for wide receivers.
61:38His same point per game in 2024 would have been wide receiver 31 per game.
61:43All right, sorry. That's where you draft him. If you're going to draft him at all.
61:48All right. Let's see if we can get through the rest here.
61:51Jamie's pass-catching running back stat. Go. So I mentioned this two shows ago when we were talking about, I think it was Kenneth Game, Overshaw, or maybe both.
62:00So since 2021, there have been 44 running backs with at least 50 catches.
62:0438 of them, so 38 of 50, whatever that percentage comes out to, have averaged at least 13 PPR points per game.
62:11Same year, 2021, 80 running backs had at least 40 catches.
62:1468 of those guys averaged at least 11 PPR points per game.
62:17So receptions, as we know, matter immensely for running backs.
62:20And so even though, like, Adam, I didn't go through all the names.
62:24I know we discussed a couple of these guys.
62:27Miles Gaskin had a 40-catch season for the Raiders and averaged over 11 PPR points per game.
62:32That was in 10 games, right? I think. So that's a lot of catches.
62:36Sounds right. But I think this is a relevant stat of, you know, averaging 11 points per game.
62:42You know, you have a pretty good chance of doing it if you catch 40 or more balls.
62:47That's for what? You know, the Gainwells of the world, the guys that were saying, hey, look, they're not going to be great.
62:54We'll take them in round eight or later, but they might be able to sneak into our lineup if we need it.
63:01Is that kind of where you're going with this?
63:04Yeah, it's also like, you know, when you get to the, you know, double-digit rounds or close to double-digit rounds, let's just
63:10say post-round eight, and you're looking at floor versus ceiling.
63:13So I think two guys that could be this year's Kenneth Gainwell would be TyJ Spears and Dylan Sampson.
63:19Now, they're going to need some of those games where the starter misses, like we saw from Gainwell last year, where Jalen
63:25Warren was out and he got those rushing opportunities and was awesome in them.
63:30And I don't think we're talking about 70 catch guys.
63:33But those two guys, I mean, TyJ Spears had 45 catches last year.
63:37He was one of the ones that was under the 11 PPR points per game.
63:41But Samson and Spears are in situations where you could see the receptions being there and then the maybe.
63:47And I think that's what you're looking at is the maybe.
63:50So those two guys are on the lower end scale of, I don't know if they'll get to 11 PPR points per
63:57game, but they could be north of eight just with their reception production alone and then whatever they do as rushers.
64:03I think in the case of Gainwell and White, White specifically, you're talking about backfields where either the starter has got some
64:10questions or in the case of White, that's more Gainwell.
64:13In the case of White, like he may be their just their best running back.
64:17And I don't know how much you want to get excited about that or just say, oh, that's just kind of where they are.
64:25But you know Rashad White is walking into the third down role.
64:28And then the guy in front of him had such a wildly inconsistent rookie season last year that Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt, who
64:35the investment is minimal, if he struggles, then we can see White playing a three down role.
64:40And so those type of guys where, OK, I may get that 11 point per game floor, which is not something you should go in expecting.
64:48But again, the track record and the numbers suggest that because I think both those guys are going to get easily over
64:5440 catches if they stay healthy and probably challenge to get 50 catches in their offenses.
64:59Like Gainwell showed you the path to greatness last year.
65:02Again, 13 PPR points per game. Everything worked out well for him.
65:06He was great when Warren was out. He was such a big part of what Aaron Rodgers was doing.
65:11He's not going to do that again without an injury.
65:14But where you can draft these guys right around pick 100 or later, those are the two players that I would say,
65:21OK, this could be that 11 point per game floor, which is definitely flex worthy, and the chance to be north of 13 if, again, everything breaks right.
65:30The other two guys that I mentioned, I think in Samson and Spears, those are more 40 catch guys.
65:35Those are more I may be hoping to get an eight point per game situation out of them, but they could hit that 11 point per game number.
65:44To drive the point home on Rashad White, if you can get somebody in round 10 that averages 14 PPR points per
65:50game, you'd probably be really happy about that, right?
65:53Yes. Of course you would. Well, too bad. Rashad White only averaged 13.9 PPR points per game in 2024, the first nine
66:00games before Bucky Irving became a thing in Tampa.
66:02He had nine total touchdowns this year. How about he could be the passing downs guy for Washington and work at the
66:09goal line for Washington, and that's with Krosky Merritt healthy.
66:12All right, Dave, two more stats. This is a weird one.
66:15Your top five running back stat. It's not a weird one.
66:19It's just a macro stat. It's surprising. 70% of the running backs that finish top five in PPR points per game since
66:252005 failed to do so again the following year.
66:28So this is like the same type of repeating stat that we've talked about for the top 12 wide receivers and for
66:35Christian McCaffrey and all that other stuff. Two running backs did it last year, though.
66:39I bet you know who they are that finished top five in PPR points per game in consecutive years.
66:45Your hint is they're going to be the first two picks in every draft this year.
66:50Each of them caught 55 passes last year, by the way.
66:53No running back has finished the regular season atop the PPR per game mountain two years in a row since Todd Gurley,
67:00and that was in 2017 and 2018. The last one before that was Brian Westbrook, our pal, in 2007 and 2008.
67:06So that's once per decade type stuff. A thing to think about when you're thinking about drafting Christian McCaffrey.
67:12Wow. So what was it? 70%? 70% of the time a running back does not repeat top five in PPR points per game.
67:19That's wild. I have the list of top five PPR running backs per game last year if you don't have it.
67:25Yeah, it's McCaffrey, Bijon, Gibbs, Taylor, and A-chan. Right.
67:28So which one of those guys, which at least three of those five will not repeat?
67:32Yeah. It's almost a guarantee that three of them will not.
67:36Which ones will they be? I wouldn't bet against him.
67:39And who? And Taylor is who I'd bank on, which I hate to say, but I'm not betting against Gibbs and Bijon.
67:45Yeah. Well, they're the most likely, certainly. Right. Okay.
67:48Last stat. We got one more. What do we got here?
67:51We have Jamie's Devon A-chan. Perfect. Perfect segue. Just repeating what we said the other day.
67:5625 games with Tua Tungavailoa over the last two seasons.
67:5921.5 PPR points per game. Absolute stud. Eight games without Tua Tungavailoa the last two years.
68:0410.5 fantasy points per game. It's just mind-boggling. Now, there are a lot of different circumstances that went into those games, so take that into account.
68:12But it's just numbers being what they are. 21.5 with Tua.
68:1510.5 without Tua. I have a question. And so I have a question.
68:19I could answer this too. What would you need to see or hear this preseason to make you believe that A-chan will
68:26be as good as he was last year? Is there anything that the Dolphins could tell you or show you?
68:32Right. Other than Tua Tungavailoa coming back to the Dolphins.
68:35No, but McDaniel too. I think just the case, you know, we talked about this with Scott Turner on Tuesday.
68:41Like, you know, when we referenced the stats, Malik Willis, worst quarterback the last two years of targeting his running backs.
68:47Tua Tungavailoa were the best quarterback the last two years of targeting his running backs.
68:52Adam brought up the point about the personnel that Malik Willis has worked with.
68:56Not exactly the best pass-catching running backs. And as Scott said, like, they're going to do different things with Malik Willis to
69:02allow him to throw to Devon A-chan. Will he be first?
69:06You know, I'm paraphrasing Scott here. Will Malik Willis be first in that number because of A-chan?
69:11No. Will he be last? Probably not. Did that better than anybody else?
69:15So, that's where the concern comes in for A-chan.
69:17Again, what would have to happen? I think the offensive line would have to stay healthy and live up to some of the expectations.
69:25I think Malik Willis would have to keep A-chan certainly north of 50, you know, and probably in the 60 catch range.
69:31And then just looking at it, okay, this offensive environment stinks, but this guy's an absolute stud.
69:36Just give him every opportunity they possibly can. So, get those goal line chances when they're there.
69:42Still be very involved in the passing game. And hopefully the Dolphins exceed their projected win total, which is under five.
69:48And Dave made the point that if you look at that eight-game sample for A-chan where he's averaging 10.5 points per game
69:55without Tua, only two of them were last year.
69:57And last year, 2025, two games at the end of the year.
70:01And he averaged 16.1 points per game, which most years is going to put you sort of at the back end of running back 10, right around there.
70:09It's exactly what I'm expecting from A-chan this year, which is still good.
70:13Yeah, it's good, but it's probably, if you're taking him 15th overall, it's probably not that good of a pick.
70:19In fact, it's... I disagree. I think that that's...
70:22I think 16 PPR points per game is fine at 15th overall.
70:26Man, if you're getting RB10 at 15th overall, I think that's not a good point.
70:30When a bunch of other running backs are going to go higher and be drafted sooner than normal?
70:35It's just when you put him in that group with the guys that, again, not as talented as him potentially, or at
70:42least not the resume of what he has, but it's a group of running backs that have the chance to exceed those numbers potentially.
70:49And you're talking about Gentty and Hampton and Chase Brown and Barkley.
70:53I'm probably missing somebody in there, but like, you know, there's a...
70:57You put Henry and Jacobs in there? Walker? Jacobs makes me nervous.
71:00But yeah, Henry. I think I said Henry like three times.
71:03What about Derrick Henry, Jamie? There's reasons to believe that those guys could be better than A-chan.
71:09And again, not from a talent standpoint, from an offensive environment standpoint.
71:12What about Henry though? I think he's good. Okay.
71:15Raven's running back. Thanks for watching, everybody. 17 stats.
71:18Most of them mattered. And we appreciate your time.
71:20All right. Tomorrow, remember, we're going to go early with the podcast, 9.30 a.m.
71:25Oh, wait, wait. I know we went long today, but you didn't get an opportunity.
71:29Scott Turner crushed your dreams when he said that Jerry Maguire...
71:32You pissed me off. You can't ask that question without me on the show.
71:37You have to let me make the case that Jerry Maguire is not a football movie.
71:41Because it isn't. Because... Name three players. Rod Tidwell.
71:44Yeah. The quarterback, Troy Aikman. Cush. You're talking about Cush.
71:47We never even see play a game. Troy Aikman.
71:50Yeah. Not a... No. What do you mean no?
71:53Where's Troy Aikman? I remember Troy Aikman. The end of the movie.
71:56He's not playing. He's just there. Oh, they have to be playing.
72:00Yeah, name three players that played. Three players that played.
72:03Name two players that played. It's not a sports movie.
72:06There's freaking no sports in it. So we just have to name them?
72:10Do they have to have any lines in the movie?
72:13You have to give me their names. Like, their character names.
72:16Frank Fumachumafala. I'll give you 20 names tomorrow. No.
72:19Why? You gotta tell me now. You gotta tell me now.
72:22I can't... All right. Name all the Avengers, Adam.
72:25Go ahead. I don't know. I've never seen the Avengers.
72:28Exactly. But that means it didn't happen? No, you've seen Jerry Maguire.
72:31I know... Yes. Also, I know the Avengers. I could name some of them.
72:36But you've seen Jerry Maguire, and yet you still can't name football players because they're not playing football in the movie.
72:42Okay. So if I name you 20 players tomorrow...
72:45No. You can't do it. I absolutely can't. How could you do it?
72:49Because there's football scenes with people that have jerseys on that have named...
72:52Listen, if you said to me, name five players in Major League, obviously we could do that.
72:58We know the players. All right. Name five players in Major League.
73:01Come on, man. Like, don't make me do that.
73:04Dorn... You said you could. All right. You got Jake Taylor.
73:07You got Ricky Vaughn. You got Willie Mays Hayes.
73:10You got Roger Dorn. One more. And you got Ed Harris.
73:13All right? The crafty veteran Eddie Harris. So there's your five.
73:17There's no... I see that's Serrano. That's so bad of you.
73:20What's that? Oh, Serrano. Of course. Right. There are no players in Jerry Maguire because there's hardly any sport.
73:26You're wildly wrong here. I'm not. You got tricked into seeing a chick flick.
73:30They threw a little bit of sport. By the way, I love the movie.
73:34One of my favorite movies. You got tricked. They threw a little bit of sports in there for the guys out there.
73:41You watched a chick flick. If I give you 20 football players that are in that movie, 20 names of football players.
73:47They're actors that are playing football. Jamie, you're going to go on IMDb.
73:51You're going to look at... No, I'm not. I'm looking right now.
73:55I'm going to watch all the football scenes. It doesn't exist.
73:58Johnny Morton is in the movie. Rick Meyer is in the movie.
74:02When they... Drew Bledsoe. When he gets knocked out at the end of the game and all those players are there in the end of them.
74:10That doesn't count. Those are extras. Well, now it doesn't count.
74:13They're extras. Jamie, don't be so... So just to be clear.
74:16You know what I'm saying. You know what I'm saying.
74:19Just to be clear here. There are five baseball players only in Major League.
74:23Well, there are six. I forgot about Serrano. There are six that matter.
74:27There are six that have lines. Got it. You know what I'm talking about.
74:32Stop being so... Oh, you're just needling me right now.
74:35You know exactly what I'm saying. The story of Jerry Maguire is...
74:38One football player in the movie. It is a love story about an agent.
74:42It is not a football story. It's true. I mean, it is a love story about a guy whose life involves football.
74:49It is not a football movie. We've never asked Sam his opinion on this.
74:53Sam, what's your opinion? Is Jerry Maguire a football movie or not?
74:57She's never seen Jerry Maguire. Come on. I've seen it.
75:00Oh, okay. I agree. I think it's a sports movie.
75:03Get the hell out of here, bro. I said disc.
75:06We got to go. We'll talk to you tomorrow.
75:09No, you're such a disc. We'll talk to you tomorrow.
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