NFL fantasy football news and player signals for Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Host notes Jayden Daniels has shown himself to be extremely injury-prone, gets hurt frequently, and lacks great weapons in the supporting cast. These factors position him as a lower-tier QB option due to injury risk and lack of offensive weapons.

Host is still deciding on Lamar Jackson's tier, uncertain whether to place him closer to Josh Allen or further down toward Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Host notes that Todd Monken's departure could lead to a decline in passing efficiency after years of continuity, but also cautions against overthinking the situation. The offensive change represents a key uncertainty in Jackson's ranking.

Host ranks Jordan Love as QB20 and is willing to take shots on him late as a value target. Host expects Green Bay to pass more and operate a more condensed offense, with Love letting it rip this year; positioned as a late-round target within the deep QB tier where the host sees minimal point-per-game difference from QB12-15.

Host will not draft Caleb Williams at his current ADP (sixth or seventh round), viewing his draft capital as inefficient. Host prefers to wait 50+ picks and acquire quarterbacks like Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford with similar expected production. Host believes the quarterback position is deep through QB15, making early-round QB investment unnecessary.

Host ranks Jared Goff as QB16, just outside the deep QB tier (QB12-15) where the host sees no significant point-per-game difference. This positioning reflects the host's view that early-round QB investment is inefficient given the depth available through QB15.

Ranked as QB13; strong value alternative to Caleb Williams; willing to wait 50+ picks to acquire Stafford instead of drafting Caleb Williams in round 6-7; quarterback position is deep through QB15, making early-round QB selection inefficient.

Ranked as QB12; strong value alternative to Caleb Williams; willing to wait 50+ picks to acquire Purdy instead of drafting Caleb Williams in round 6-7; quarterback position is deep through QB15, making early-round QB selection inefficient.

Ranked as TE10 but currently going as TE7; core issue is he's a "nothingburger" when Drake London is on the field, with nearly a 10-point fantasy difference between games with and without London; ranked 35th among 49 qualified tight ends in yards after catch per reception (4.5 YAC/rec), indicating he is primarily a catch-and-fall player who needs force-fed targets to produce; significantly overvalued relative to second-year tight ends like Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin, and Sam LaPorta.

Ranked below Kyren Williams in current ADP; offers better value proposition than Kyren at third-round price point, though legal situation may affect his draft position.

Ranked below Kyren Williams in current ADP despite offering better value; source prefers Smith over Kyren at their respective draft positions in third round.

Historical RBBC comparison to Kyren Williams situation in Chicago; at 55th overall ADP, offers extremely similar fantasy outlook to Kyren Williams at 30th overall, making Swift the superior value play despite lower draft position.

Historical RBBC context in Chicago with De'Andre Swift; illustrates pattern of split-backfield usage that mirrors current Kyren Williams and Blake Corum situation in Los Angeles.

ADP is 31st overall (RB15), but Deebo Samuel ranks him 42nd overall (RB19). While described as a high-floor player (projected ~1,100 total yards, 8-10 TDs), the price is risky due to material offensive change: Kyren and Blake Corum split drives evenly (alternating full-drive patterns), reducing his 2024 carries to 15.2 per game from 19.8 in 2023; averages only 2 catches per game, limiting upside. Deebo Samuel is unwilling to spend a third-round pick on a player who will be off the field every other drive. This mirrors the De'Andre Swift/Cam Akers committee in Chicago last year; at 55th overall, De'Andre Swift offers extremely similar fantasy outlook to Kyren at 30th overall, making Swift the superior value play.

Deebo Samuel criticizes the market's consensus that Justin Fields is a top-six fantasy quarterback, calling it 'abysmal' and citing the Jets' weak offensive situation as the core reason to avoid the entire Jets offense.

Freeman's upside from last year is being priced in at ADP, but the speaker believes the market is paying for last year's performance a year too late, making the first-round ADP unjustifiable.

ADP is 30th overall (RB14), but Deebo Samuel ranks him 41st overall (RB18), 11 spots lower. Primary concern is price: at third-round cost, he's overvalued given the Jets' low win total, weak touchdown projection (5.5 rushing TDs), and committee concerns with Braelon Allen on goal-line work and Isaiah Davis on pass-catching/third-down snaps. Deebo Samuel expects Breece to average 18 touches per game and remain a strong pass-catcher, but the offensive structure and touchdown upside don't justify the third-round ADP. Deebo Samuel had a 'scorching hot thesis' last summer against all Jets offensive weapons, citing the team's lack of quarterback stability and overall offensive disaster; despite this thesis proving prescient, people continue to draft Hall in the third round in 2026.

Currently going off the board as RB7 (first-round ADP), but Deebo Samuel projects mid-late second to early third-round value based on Miami's situation change. Last year Achane was end of second/early third and could return first-round value; this year the inverse is true—first-round investment likely yields second/third-round output. Deebo Samuel cites system fit concerns: Mike McDaniel departure removes the coach who optimized Achane's unique skill set (similar to how Kyle Shanahan maximizes Deebo Samuel); new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik (from Houston) did not prioritize the run game; Malik Willis as mobile QB will check down far less than Tua Tagovailoa, reducing Achane's target volume; Miami's bottom-five offensive line, 4.5-win projection, and weak receiver room (no Tyreek Hill, no Jaylen Waddle) create a low-volume, low-efficiency offense. Deebo Samuel expects touchdown numbers to plummet and overall targets to decline significantly.

Smith is ranked in the mid-wide receiver range (14-16) and represents good value for a player with upside.

Coleman is going ahead of Dobbins in startups, which is viewed as mispriced given Dobbins' superior talent and opportunity share.

With Rice as a knucklehead, targets go somewhere, and Kelce is positioned to benefit from increased target volume.

Kelce is a Hall of Famer available at an excellent price and is an excellent flex in tight end premium formats, typically a bench asset in the 11th-12th round if you've built your team right.

Kelce is super cheap and available for a third or 2028 second, with his ADP in Sleeper at 14th round but typically going in 11th-12th round in startups, making him an excellent value.

Moore has the opportunity to emerge as Josh Allen's primary target in Buffalo's wide receiver room and could have a strong season with veteran understanding.

Moore can be acquired for a second and a third, and has shown the ability to be a wide receiver one with lesser-talented quarterbacks, making him a strong value in Buffalo.

Harvey handles the receiving work in the Denver backfield, while Dobbins is the primary rusher.

Harvey is being hyped by Sean Payton to boost his confidence, but he's not going to be the guy in the Denver backfield, suggesting his value is inflated.

Charbonnet is likely the guy to own in the Denver backfield for the second half of the season, making him a strong pairing with Dobbins for full-year RB coverage.

Charbonnet is undervalued in dynasty startups due to Jadarian Price's presence, but pairing him with Dobbins creates an arbitrage play where you can get a starting RB/RB2 for the whole year.

Dobbins has barely played more than 13 games in recent years, and the toll of brutal injuries makes him a risky bet despite his talent.

Dobbins doesn't get much receiving work as RJ Harvey handles that role, which makes him a better play in half-PPR formats.

Dobbins has a brutal injury history with multiple ACL injuries, an Achilles injury, and a foot injury last year, which is driving his low price.

Dobbins is a decent RB2 and excellent flex play in deeper leagues, with potential to be a reliable starter six times a year in an offense where he can be depended on for 12-15 points.

Dobbins can be acquired for a late 2026 second or an 11th-12th round startup pick, representing excellent value when the injury narrative is priced in.

Dobbins is extremely undervalued due to injury concerns but had strong 2025 metrics: 62.3% opportunity share, eighth in yards per carry (5.0), and 117.2 EPX, making him a good value at a late second or 11th-12th round startup pick.

Trading Montgomery for Pollard and gaining a third is a savvy move, as Pollard offers better value and upside.

Pollard is going in the 14th round in startups and can be used as an RB3 or flex option, with potential to serve as an RB2 on bi-weeks or if injuries strike.

Pollard is the clear lead back in Tennessee with Padre Spears unable to stay healthy, and he's available for cheap as an RB2 or flex option.

Montgomery should be the main guy coming out of Houston's backfield and is available for cheap, making him a solid RB2 option.

Higgins is a great player to have as your wide receiver three or flex, capable of putting up 30-point games from the flex spot and winning weeks for contending teams.

Higgins has injury concerns and has barely ever played a full season, so contenders should be prepared for him to miss two to three weeks.

Higgins has the potential to have spike weeks that can win you weeks, especially if Chase misses time, as he's shown the ability to step in and take a huge target share.

Higgins is ranked in the 14-16 range and can be acquired for two seconds in offseason trades, representing strong value for a player with spike-week potential.

McLaurin is undervalued due to age and his bad season last year, making him a solid contender for a wide receiver four or five flex spot.

Patrick Mahomes' startup ADP has not matched his on-field production over the last 2-3 years, causing people to sour on him despite being arguably the best player in football.

Taylor believes Patrick Mahomes will come out with a vengeance after his recent injury and declining performance, as he's been upset with how he's performed the last few seasons and will be motivated to bounce back.

Jose notes that Jalen Hurts' passing has continued to decline even with A.J. Brown on the team, raising questions about how his performance will look without Brown.

Jose projects Devonta Smith to finish between wide receiver 15-20, with the biggest concern being whether the Eagles' offense will figure things out and become more creative in their passing scheme.

Jose questions whether Devonta Smith is cut out to be an alpha in an offense, noting he hasn't taken over even when A.J. Brown has been hurt or absent.

Taylor sees Devonta Smith as a high-end wide receiver two with a high floor, comparable to T. Higgins without the same magnitude of soft tissue concerns.

Devonta Smith will gain the most from A.J. Brown's trade, as he will get more targets and has the agility to run creative routes that the Eagles can use to keep drives moving.

Jose projects A.J. Brown to return to being a wide receiver one with potential for double-digit touchdowns, as the Patriots don't have another red zone target to prioritize.

Taylor projects A.J. Brown to finish as a top 10 wide receiver in full PPR with a higher floor in New England, likely in the 7-10 touchdown range rather than 12-14.

There is a lingering knee issue with A.J. Brown that was a concern, which is why the Rams were out on the sweepstakes for him.

If you're a contender with A.J. Brown, this is the time to be excited about him; if you're not contending, now is the moment to sell at max value before he turns 30.

In the Patriots offense, A.J. Brown will be in a more concentrated situation and Drake May will need him as the guy on the outside and in the middle of the field to keep drives going.

Gunnar Helm is drafted as part of the final roster construction.

Pat Freiermuth is drafted as part of the final roster construction.

T.J. Hockenson is not taken by the analyst, who prefers Terrence Ferguson instead.

Terrence Ferguson is drafted as the fourth tight end on the team, with the analyst preferring him over T.J. Hockenson.

Jerry Judy is drafted as part of the wide receiver room.

Elijah Surratt is drafted as a rookie wide receiver with Lamar Jackson correlation.

Debo Samuel is drafted as part of the wide receiver room.

Kyle Pitts is not taken as a value hound pick in this draft.

Isaiah Likely is drafted as a tight end despite the analyst not really liking him, primarily for week 17 correlation with Lamar Jackson.

Tee Higgins is drafted as a core wide receiver on the team.

Justin Jefferson is drafted as the top wide receiver on the team.

Jordan Mason is drafted as a core running back and is expected to do heavy lifting at week 10.

Kenneth Gainwell is drafted and the pairing of Gainwell and Bucky Irving together makes sense as a bet against Bucky Irving's role.

Bucky Irving's situation is compared to the Jaguars running back room last year, but being a day three pick matters significantly less than being a first round pick like ETN, which affects coaching staff leeway.

Javante Williams is drafted as a core running back and is expected to do heavy lifting at week 10.

Saquon Barkley is drafted as a core piece of the team alongside Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson.

Justin Herbert is overrated and does a lot of dumb things, takes bad sacks, and is not the best decision maker, though the analyst notes he was quarterback 14 last year with no offensive line and will improve with Mike McDaniel and a healthy line.

Patrick Mahomes has been bad for three straight years and no one will say a bad thing about him, yet he's only quarterback 12 in fantasy and people are avoiding him.

Kyler Murray is taken as the second quarterback in a superflex format to set up a double stack with Jordan Addison.

Travis Hunter is explicitly identified as one of the worst three picks on the board and should not be drafted in fantasy football.

Keaton Mitchell is explicitly identified as one of the worst three picks on the board and should not be drafted in fantasy football.

Luther Burden is explicitly identified as one of the worst three picks on the board and should not be drafted in fantasy football.

Jordan Addison is taken to set up a double stack with Kyler Murray.

Alec Pierce is a rare value hound pick for the analyst, representing ADP value if Rob Rosenthal doesn't take him.

Josh Allen goes too high in ADP, but the analyst notes you can't let him fall that low because he's still Josh Allen.

Jalin Hyatt (Bowers reference) is ranked ahead of McBride on ESPN live draft trends.

Jalen Hurd (Hampton reference) is ranked below Jeremiah Love at 15th on ESPN live draft trends.

David Njoku (McBride reference) is ranked below Jeremiah Love at 15th on ESPN live draft trends.

Drake London is ranked below Jeremiah Love at 15th on ESPN live draft trends.

Jeremiah Love goes higher in normie redraft rankings than in best ball, ranking 15th on ESPN live draft trends ahead of Derek Henry, Drake London, McBride, and Hampton.

The Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews combo appears in 5.7% of drafts, which is double the expected 2.9%, indicating strong correlation value.

Joe Burrow is being passed on in favor of Lamar Jackson, with the Lamar-Burrow combo appearing in only 0.4% of 600 completed drafts on Underdog.

Lamar Jackson is significantly better for fantasy than Joe Burrow and is being taken at pick 62, with the Lamar-Burrow combo appearing in only 0.4% of 600 completed drafts on Underdog.

The analyst could see Dallas signing Kareem Hunt, though the coaches don't trust him.

Malik Davis is a total zero and the analyst would be unenthusiastic about him as a starting running back in the NFL.

Travis Hunter is a good stack option with Jaden Lawrence, with a projection of 649.5 yards.

If Brandon Iyuk was playing for the Commanders, the analyst would set his yardage over/under at 845 yards.

Rashee Rice is a very good pick in the third round despite his wide range of outcomes due to injury and legal issues, as he's in a really good role for fantasy football with Eric B. Edmonds back.

The analyst disagrees that Bryce Young is one of the best picks on the board.

The analyst disagrees that Kyle Pitts is one of the best picks on the board.

The analyst disagrees that Emmanuel Wilson is a good pick and thinks he might get cut, as the team is using Halani and Price as starting running backs in training camp.

Rico Dowdle is a pretty good pick on the board.

Nico Collins is one of the best picks on the board according to a chat suggestion.

Trey McBride is a good pick in the third round, and the analyst would take him around AJ Brown and Nico Collins instead of the middle of third if Jacoby Brissett was guaranteed to start 17 games.

Trevor Lawrence is a buy at his current ADP as a unique combination in this draft.

Jonathan Brooks at pick 100 represents huge ADP value.

Braylon Allen might have minimal role, potentially getting only four carries per game.

Ramondre Stevenson has multiple outs to being a first-round caliber, 12+ point projection Week 1 running back.

The analyst disagrees that Tyrone Tracy is the best running back pick on the board, noting he has no clear path to being the starting RB for the Giants in Week 1 unlike other mid-round options.

Sean Tucker got all goal-line carries in the preseason/training camp, suggesting he could eat into Bucky Irving's goal-line opportunities.

Bucky Irving got zero rushes inside the five-yard line last season, which could limit his goal-line upside.

In the middle of the fifth round, Bucky Irving is a good pick as a proven three-down back, though goal-line usage by Sean Tucker could be a concern.

Jacksonville Jaguars RB had a procedure on his left foot following an offseason injury; the analyst is skeptical of team assurances he'll have no restrictions at training camp, citing the high likelihood of complications from offseason foot surgery on running backs.

Emanuel Wilson enters a timeshare with Josh Jacobs when Jacobs is banged up, reducing Jacobs' snap share to 55%.

Chris Brooks enters a timeshare with Josh Jacobs when Jacobs is banged up, reducing Jacobs' snap share to 55%.

Javvante Williams is part of an archetype of running backs with safety in touches and two-and-a-half-down usage but without massive ceiling outcomes, which Josh Jacobs is an upgraded version of.

Breece Hall was going near the 2-3 turn on Underdog and FFPC before Josh Jacobs' off-field issues emerged.

Josh Jacobs is not positioned as a league-winner archetype despite potential value, making him a limited exposure play.

If Josh Jacobs' ADP falls into early-to-middle round four due to off-field concerns, he represents a genuine discount on uncertainty and becomes an interesting value target.

When healthy, Josh Jacobs looks like an 18-19 fantasy points per game player when injured games are removed from the calculation.

When Josh Jacobs gets banged up, his snap share drops to 55% and he enters a timeshare with Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson, and accumulated lower body injuries at his age are a risk factor.

Josh Jacobs is an upgraded version of the ETN/Javvante Williams archetype with safety in guaranteed touches and two-and-a-half-down usage, finishing consistently between RB8 and RB12.

Josh Jacobs has off-field legal issues that create uncertainty about his 2026 outlook, though the analyst's understanding is that this is unlikely to make him miss any games this year.

Before off-field issues, Josh Jacobs' ADP was right alongside Breece Hall near the 2-3 turn on Underdog and FFPC, but he has since fallen to late third through end of fourth depending on format.

Walker is mentioned as a running back with lower pass-catching expectations, used as a comparison point to show that Javante Williams' actual target share ranked him similarly to non-pass-catching backs.

Johnston is mentioned as a running back with lower pass-catching expectations, used as a comparison point to show that Javante Williams' actual target share ranked him similarly to non-pass-catching backs.

Hall is referenced as a running back coming off the board before the 'dead zone' in round three, establishing the context for where the weak running back tier begins.

Henry is referenced as a running back coming off the board before the 'dead zone' in round three, establishing the context for where the weak running back tier begins.

Hardman (referred to as 'Mecha Eggbuka' in transcript) is presented as a better opportunity cost than Javante Williams in the draft.

Smith is presented as a better opportunity cost than Javante Williams in the draft, suggesting she offers more value at her ADP.

Allen is presented as a better opportunity cost than Javante Williams in the draft, suggesting he offers more value at his ADP.

Etienne and Williams are structurally appealing from a volume perspective, but if they stay healthy, the touches will be there—though this doesn't necessarily make them the most upside-heavy picks in their range.

Etienne is part of the 'dead zone' in late round three where running backs lack upside, and the analyst prefers finding projectable volume players in later rounds instead of paying the price for him in round three.

Williams is part of the 'dead zone' in late round three running backs that lack league-winning upside, making him a poor bet relative to finding projectable volume players in rounds 7-9.

Williams is being marketed as a two-down workhorse with pass-catching work, but the analyst questions this narrative, noting he didn't have a single game above 10% target share after Lamb returned in week seven.

Williams is being drafted as RB17 in late third round, but the analyst believes this is overpriced given his pass-catching role is overstated. His target share dropped from 12.2% in games without CD Lamb to just 6.4% when Lamb was active, ranking him RB45 in pass-catching work.

Josh Jacobs is considered less favorable than Travis Etienne in the mid-to-late third round.

Javante Williams falls into the category of average pass-catching running backs, similar to ETN.

Javante Williams is part of the dead zone running backs in round three with low upside, similar to ETN and Kairen Williams.

Javante Williams avoids the new situation fade by staying with Dallas after justifying his contract with an awesome year.

Javante Williams had a huge ADP correction, going from being debated against Jaden Blue last year to round three this year as RB17, raising questions about whether we're getting ahead of ourselves with this price tag.

ETN offers safety as a positive, providing a predictable volume running back two that allows for shots on upside in later rounds.

ETN is in a spot where he will get a lot of volume and the offense will be pretty good, making him a preferable option to Kairen Williams, Josh Jacobs, Cam Scaboo, and Quinn Sean Judkins in the mid-to-late third round.

Derrick Henry is not considered part of the dead zone due to his upside potential.

Jeremiah Love is not considered part of the dead zone due to his upside potential.

Breece Hall cannot be put in the same sentence as dead zone running backs because he has clear upside.

ETN is going alongside Kairen Williams and Javante Williams as a late third round pick, with RB17 ADP.

ETN went from round 7-8 ADP last year to round 3 this year, representing a huge ADP correction price that historically has poor hit rates for non-year-two players.

ETN is the quintessential dead zone running back and represents the start of the dead zone this year.

ETN is a low-end RB2 without significant pass-catching volume, and the Kell Moore offense is not elite enough to expect 16-20 rushing touchdowns for a running back.

ETN received just 2.5 fantasy points per game from design targets last year, a feature of the Liam Cohn offense that will go away with Kell Moore, who doesn't design targets to running backs.

Chris Lave is the primary target for Kell Moore's designed targets in the Saints offense, receiving the bulk of passing-game volume rather than running backs.

Alvin Kamara's target share plummeted from 19.6% under Clint Kubiak to just 10% under Kell Moore last year, demonstrating Moore's reluctance to involve running backs in the passing game.

Saquon Barkley's target share fell from 13.8% to 9.6% after Kell Moore joined the Eagles, illustrating Moore's pattern of reducing running back receiving volume.

Austin Ekeler's target share dropped from 17% to under 14% immediately after Kell Moore arrived as the Chargers' play caller, demonstrating Moore's tendency to reduce backfield targets.

Travis Etienne offers minimal upside in round three—you just stay afloat with him, and if things go wrong he becomes a low-end RB2 due to lack of passing-game volume.

Travis Etienne received only 2.5 fantasy points per game from design targets last year, and Kell Moore does not design targets to running backs—they go to Chris Lave instead.

Travis Etienne is not talented enough as a receiver to demand targets over Chris Lave, Jordan Tyson, or Jawan Johnson in the Saints offense.

Travis Etienne is not an elite pass catcher and his safety is already properly valued by ADP, meaning there's no upside discount available at his current draft price.

Travis Etienne is characterized as a 'safe but limited upside' pick at his third-round price tag, representing the middle archetype of running backs with decent pass-catching ability but no explosive upside.

Alvin Kamara is being rumored as a potential trade destination to Buffalo, and analysts believe he would function similarly to Tai Johnson in the Bills offense.

James Cook would lose passing-catching upside if Alvin Kamara were traded to Buffalo, but the analyst notes this wouldn't significantly change his overall evaluation.

At this point in his career, Kamara is pretty analogous to Tai Johnson and what he's done with the Bills for the last couple years.

Henry is less of a pass catcher compared to James Cook, who is more capable in that role.

Taylor's profile as a back feels opportunistic, in contrast to James Cook who appears more naturally suited to a pass-catching role.

Taylor has added risk to his environment compared to James Cook, making Cook a more comfortable late round one pick.

If Alvin Kamara is moved to Buffalo, it would not significantly change enthusiasm for Cook in draft range because Kamara would be his own thing and Cook would lose pass-catching upside but otherwise remain largely unchanged.

The analyst doesn't have a strong position on whether increased pass-catching work will happen for Cook, but would be willing to listen if there are whispers of Pete Carmichael having a bigger impact on the Bills offense.

If the analyst were offensive coordinator of the Bills, Cook would be used as a pass catcher because he is a great pass catcher and would add explosive options to the offense without forcing it downfield.

Cook feels like a back capable of catching 60 passes if somebody fully committed to it, and there's a possibility that increased pass-catching work could be a wrinkle in Buffalo's offense this year.

Cook has been boxed out in terms of a pass-catching role despite his talent with the ball in space, with his fantasy success driven primarily by rushing upside and touchdowns rather than receiving volume.

Cook should be comfortable to draft in late round one because the analyst has fewer concerns about the Bills' offensive environment compared to the Colts, and Cook is just as capable as Jonathan Taylor of delivering a massive season.

Cook is a capable pass catcher more so than Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry, and if a team wanted to use him in a three-down bell cow role, he could succeed, but the Bills have intentionally limited him to a hyperefficient two-down mostly rushing role to keep him healthy.

Michael Pitman is compared to Josh Downs as a receiver, with the implication that Downs may be the more effective option in the Colts passing game.

Daniel Jones is mispriced and undervalued in fantasy football drafts.

Tyler Warren taking another step forward could help the Colts become one of the top offenses in the league again, similar to their performance through the first 11 weeks of last season.

If the Josh Downs truthers are right about him being a better and more effective receiver than Michael Pitman, and he's now in an every-down role, this helps Jonathan Taylor's game script and prevents defenses from loading the box.

Henry is grouped with Jonathan Taylor as a known commodity running back that has been drafted towards the top of running back rankings for years.

Cook is a capable pass catcher who could succeed in a three-down bell cow role if a team wanted to use him that way, but the Bills have not deployed him in that manner.

Cook is a prime example of fantasy managers double counting pass-catching ability, with his draft price inflated relative to how the Bills actually use him.

Cook has been a machine with over 1,600 rushing yards last year and 32 touchdowns in his last 33 regular season games, delivering back-to-back years with 32-33 receptions.

Cook has been a massive ADP winner in both 2024 and 2025, living inside the first round and going as high as the 10th overall in some early high-stakes drafts.

Taylor could potentially match or exceed his 46 receptions from last year, though his receiving role is not dramatically increasing compared to other first-round running backs.

Taylor received 46 receptions last year, representing 28.6% of expected fantasy points from receiving, which falls into his typical sub-30% bucket for most of his career.

RB1 overall is in the range of outcomes for Taylor, as evidenced by his performance through the first 11 weeks of last season before injuries to Daniel Jones derailed the Colts offense.

Barkley is cited as an example of a major bust from the non-pass-catching running back group, underperforming his ADP due to buying high on an overperforming team environment.

Downs is expected to potentially take on an every-down role and be a more effective receiver than Michael Pitman, which could make the Colts passing game more explosive.

Taylor's bullcase hinges on the Colts offense improving further, with Josh Downs becoming a more effective receiver in an every-down role and the passing game becoming more explosive, which would prevent teams from loading the box and help Taylor's game script.

Taylor had 1,500+ rushing yards last year, 1,400+ the year before, and was a league winner in the 2023 fantasy playoffs with six touchdowns in a 3-week stretch, demonstrating elite upside potential.

Taylor is the first-round player that scares the analyst the most due to concerns about buying high on an overperforming team environment; his wide win-loss splits and poor performance when the Colts weren't controlling games are red flags.

Hall is viewed favorably at the beginning of round three, though the analyst is more bullish on Baltimore's offensive environment with Declan Doyle.

Despite age concerns, Henry is viewed as a completely different type of athlete with significant upside at his current ADP cost, with multiple pathways to deliver value.

Jonathan Taylor is going later than Derrick Henry on PPR platforms despite similar archetype, though the Ravens have a higher win total and better offensive outlook than the Colts.

James Cook has only exceeded his expected fantasy points per game by two or more points twice in the last five years, compared to Derrick Henry's four times.

Christian McAffrey has only exceeded his expected fantasy points per game by two or more points twice in the last five years, compared to Derrick Henry's four times.

Breece Hall at the beginning of round three is viewed favorably, though the analyst is more bullish on Baltimore's offense with Derrick Henry compared to the Jets' situation.

Despite being 32 years old, Derrick Henry shows no signs of regression and is a completely different type of athlete than historical 32-year-old running backs, making age concerns less relevant to his outlook.

The Ravens have an 11.5 win total in Vegas, higher than the Bills (10.5) and Colts (7.5), yet Derrick Henry is going later than Jonathan Taylor or James Cook on PPR platforms despite similar archetype and better team outlook.

Over the last five years, Derrick Henry has exceeded his expected fantasy points per game in four of five seasons by two or more points, double any other running back—more consistent efficiency than Christian McAffrey, James Cook, or Bejon Robinson.

Getting Derrick Henry at the end of round two on DraftKings and FFPC represents a discount given Ravens uncertainty after Lamar Jackson's injury and new coaching regime, making him an enticing value for a non-pass-catching back.

Derrick Henry achieved league-winning status in 2024 as a two-down specialist non-pass-catching running back, and was specifically the league winner for fantasy managers in week 17.

Kenneth Walker achieved league-winning status as a two-down specialist in 2024, though his success was also aided by an increased pass-catching role.

James Conner is cited as a two-down specialist non-pass-catching running back who achieved league-winning status with 5+ fantasy points per game over expectation.

David Montgomery is cited as a two-down specialist non-pass-catching running back who achieved league-winning status with 5+ fantasy points per game over expectation.

James Cook in 2025 is cited as a two-down specialist non-pass-catching running back who achieved league-winning status with 5+ fantasy points per game over expectation.

Jonathan Taylor in 2025 is cited as a two-down specialist non-pass-catching running back who achieved league-winning status with 5+ fantasy points per game over expectation.

Middle-archetype running backs like Travis Etienne are the least exciting fantasy investments, smashing their ADP the least often (10% in first 50 picks vs. 21% and 16% for non-pass catchers and elite pass catchers), offering only safety over two-down specialists.

Middle-archetype running backs like Josh Jacobs are the least exciting fantasy investments, smashing their ADP the least often (10% in first 50 picks vs. 21% and 16% for non-pass catchers and elite pass catchers), offering only safety over two-down specialists.

Elite pass-catching running backs like McAffrey have the lowest bust rates because they're less vulnerable to negative game script—even when teams are losing, they accumulate checkdown receptions that provide consistent fantasy production.

Non-pass-catching running backs like Saquon Barkley smash their ADP expectations most often within the first 50 and 100 picks, offering significant upside despite being undervalued.

Non-pass-catching running backs like Derrick Henry smash their ADP expectations most often within the first 50 and 100 picks, offering significant upside despite being undervalued.

Non-pass-catching running backs like Jonathan Taylor smash their ADP expectations most often within the first 50 and 100 picks, offering significant upside despite being undervalued.

Nick Chubb is classified as a non-pass-catching rushing specialist, receiving under 30% of expected fantasy points from receiving.

Saquon Barkley is classified as a non-pass-catching rushing specialist in some seasons of his career, receiving under 30% of expected fantasy points from receiving.

Travis Etienne is classified as an average pass-catcher running back, receiving 30-40% of expected fantasy points from receiving, functioning as a two-and-a-half down back.

Josh Jacobs is classified as an average pass-catcher running back, receiving 30-40% of expected fantasy points from receiving, functioning as a two-and-a-half down back.

Devon Achane is classified as an elite pass-catcher running back, receiving 40% or more of expected fantasy points from receiving.

Christian McAffrey is classified as an elite pass-catcher running back, receiving 40% or more of expected fantasy points from receiving.

James Cook had a smash season as an elite two-down rushing specialist, demonstrating strong upside despite being a non-pass-catching archetype.

Derrick Henry had a smash season in 2024 as an elite two-down rushing specialist, exemplifying the upside of non-pass-catching running backs.

Jonathan Taylor had a smash season as an elite two-down rushing specialist, exceeding ADP expectations by significant margins in recent years.

Evans is out there in 12 personnel for the Panthers and showed a lot of compete, though he needs to fill out his frame a bit more and is not yet super reliable.

Evans is better than Jaivon Sanders and could play the most snaps of all tight ends on the Panthers roster if Tommy Tremble misses time or if Evans takes the next step.

Aroyo didn't play enough last year and may not step in seamlessly if AJ Barner gets injured, with Seattle potentially trusting Eric Salbert more than Aroyo in that scenario.

Aroyo has the same run-blocking issues he had at Miami, is a waste bender who loses his latch when moved out of the grass, and is a notch down from Aronda Gatson as a pass catcher.

Aroyo may see slightly more playing time this year but won't be fantasy relevant, as AJ Barner is the clear starter and Aroyo lacks the blocking consistency and receiving ability to compete.

Barner is teetering on being a top-10 tight end in the league overall and will likely be the primary tight end for Seattle, with Elijah Aroyo unable to displace him.

Barner is a late-round tight end target this year and is really good, with the Seattle depth chart up for grabs beyond JSN, making him a strong value pick.

Taylor is an extremely replaceable talent with above-average to average athleticism, lacks after-the-catch ability, falls down without contact, and doesn't stay up through contact.

Taylor is reliable as a receiver but not flashy, with a lower ceiling compared to elite tight ends, though he showed ability beating linebackers to the first down marker.

Taylor could see significant blocking snaps with Kenan Sadiq on the field, which may limit his receiving opportunities and fantasy relevance despite solid blocking ability.

Mason Taylor had the best blocking tape among tight ends discussed, with great balance, athleticism, and power as an inline guy, and has a future as a primary inline blocker.

Higbee received another two-year extension this offseason, which is concerning for Ferguson's opportunity as the Rams continue to invest in their veteran tight end.

Ferguson may end the season with only 19 receptions due to competition from Tyler Higbee, Kobe Parkinson, and newly drafted Max Clair, limiting his upside despite his unique skill set.

Ferguson gets after it as a run blocker, drives into defenders, plays until the whistle, and is explosive running in a straight line down the seam with great vertical ability.

Ferguson could be part of a 12-personnel duo with Max Clair next offseason, which would be extremely exciting for a team that loves running heavier personnel sets.

Ferguson was used primarily in three tight end sets as a downfield clear-out guy and occasional corner route target, operating as a pure receiver on third-and-five situations to exploit mismatches.

Ferguson had an extremely unique tight end season with 31 targets, 15 of which were 20+ yards downfield, and an average depth of target of 18 yards—nearly double the next closest tight end (Darren Waller at 10.3).

Helm is a fitting late-round pick in the 15th round context, being drafted around Nick Singleton, Aaron Rodgers, and Isaac Tesla, making him an attractive value target.

Helm is being drafted around the 15th round alongside tight ends like Dalton Schultz and AJ Barner, and could finish as tight end 16 this season despite being drafted as tight end 25.

Helm only ran a route on 38% of his drop backs last year and could easily double that this season, becoming an every-down nearly every-down tight end for the Titans.

Gunnar Helm is not one of these day three tight ends with a massive ceiling that will explode, but has a reasonable outlook given the roster composition.

Gunnar Helm sprained his ankle during the 40-yard dash at the combine, which the speaker felt on tape, though he is a better athlete than that injury might suggest.

Gunnar Helm has a nice catch radius and can make plays on the sideline with toe-drag catches and extend away from his frame, functioning as a crossing route and scramble drill option.

Gunnar Helm was expected to be more of a blocker as the more inline guy versus Chiggo Quanko, but he got ragdolled at times and had rookie mistakes, and is not yet a great run blocker.

Gunnar Helm is the second most tight end drafted by the speaker this offseason, being selected as tight end 25 in the ninth pick of the 15th round.

In the five games without David Njoku, Harold Fannon had almost a 25% target share, which was only behind Trey McBride, demonstrating significant opportunity when the primary tight end is unavailable.

Harold Fannon's blocking is a significant weakness—he struggled in one-on-one situations against defensive ends, had tough assignments he failed, and was treated poorly by elite pass rushers like Lucas Vaness.

Harold Fannon is probably going to keep him in the tight end one mix given how good he is as a football player, with a chance he really outdoes his ADP.

Harold Fannon is incredibly young at 21 years old and already outperforming expectations in the league, with exceptional low center of gravity, fight for yards after catch, and improved ADOT down the stretch.

Harold Fannon is 100% going to totally outperform his draft slot due to his low center of gravity, yards after catch ability, and separation creation against linebackers.

Harold Fannon is the only tight end on the Browns roster and the most productive pass catcher other than Jerry Judy, positioning him as a critical piece of the offense with significant opportunity and workload.

Harold Fannon had the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end picked after 34th overall in NFL history with 72 catches, 731 yards, and six scores, and shares similar traits to Sam Laaporta as a receiver despite not being an elite inline blocker.

Tyler Warren is one of the speaker's favorite targets in the sixth round and he is drafting him frequently despite the round being heavy with quarterbacks and other position players.

Tyler Warren has positive indicators for a better season than his rookie year and is appropriately priced with a ceiling to chase, making him not a bust risk at his ADP.

Anthony Richardson is mentioned as another Colts quarterback who has used RPO targets, suggesting the scheme is consistent across quarterbacks.

Daniel Jones' health is a key factor for Tyler Warren's production, with Warren averaging 54 yards per game when Jones was healthy but dropping to 41 and 30 yards when Jones was injured or absent.

Josh Downs' participation in two wide receiver sets is uncertain, meaning RPO targets previously handled by Michael Pitman Jr. will likely go to Tyler Warren instead.

Alec Pierce is noted as not being the type to receive RPO targets that Michael Pitman Jr. previously handled, and has been injured all summer long.

Michael Pitman Jr. was top six in RPO targets last year and operated in the same exact place as Tyler Warren, with his departure potentially opening up more opportunities for Warren.

Trey McBride's stats from last year (32 targets inside the red zone, 19 catches, 10 touchdowns) are noted as almost impossible to replicate, with the Bears being too good and too much competition around Loveland.

Trey McBride is mentioned as having nearly identical projections to Colston Loveland (almost 900 receiving yards and 6.5 touchdowns) but is priced 20 spots higher in drafts.

Brock Bowers is mentioned as having nearly identical projections to Colston Loveland (almost 900 receiving yards and 6.5 touchdowns) but is priced 20 spots higher in drafts.

Analyst mentions Travis Kelce as a comparison point for Colston Loveland, noting that one of the top tight end prospects reminds him of Kelce, which is described as insane to say.

Tyler Warren is appropriately priced in the sixth round with a ceiling to chase, and analyst doesn't see him busting at this ADP unlike many other tight ends.

Tyler Warren had the second worst completion percentage over expected and third worst catchable target rate among tight ends, suggesting positive regression candidates if quarterback play improves.

Tyler Warren operates in the same exact place as Michael Pitman Jr., with less downfield stuff than Colston Loveland and most production within the first 10 yards.

Tyler Warren had 54 yards per game when Daniel Jones was healthy for the first 13 weeks (tight end six on usage), but dropped to 41 yards per game when Jones played injured and 30 yards without him.

Tyler Warren was first in first downs on screens with eight and only trailed Trey McBride in yards off screens at the position, demonstrating his effectiveness in manufactured touches.

Analyst projects Tyler Warren's touchdowns could go up to eight and receiving yards to at least 1,000 this year, up from his rookie 76 catches for 817 yards and four touchdowns.

Shane Steichen motioned Warren into fullback and used him as a chip-and-release guy on heavy play action, often as the only pass catcher going opposite the direction of the play.

Tyler Warren is fearless, strong, absorbs contact, and wants to be the hammer after the catch; he's the Colts' best screen guy with compact movements and fluidity.

Tyler Warren is ranked as tight end four at minimum, but analyst makes the argument he might be the best value in the sixth round given his opportunity and how much it can expand.

Analyst projects Loveland could double his red zone touchdowns from four last year to eight this season, similar to how Trey McBride unlocked his ceiling with increased red zone targeting.

When in heavier personnel sets, Loveland is running routes 15-25 yards downfield, including back-to-back 31-yard games, operating at a different level than typical dink-and-dunk tight ends.

Analyst expects Colston Loveland to lead the Bears in all receiving categories this year and would not be surprised if he reaches the tier of Trey McBride, taking that next leap.

In three tight end sets, Loveland stands up and operates as a wide receiver, demonstrating strong run-blocking ability including pancaking a 265-pound defensive end.

In three tight end sets, Loveland averaged an absurd 4.66 yards per route run and 53% market share, which though only happening about 15% of the time, is statistically better than anyone else in the NFL.

Analyst expects Colston Loveland to be an All-Pro as soon as this year and projects him as a cornerstone piece in fantasy drafts, with extreme confidence in his fourth-round selection.

Loveland is priced 20 spots lower than Brock Bowers and Trey McBride despite nearly identical projections of almost 900 receiving yards and 6.5 touchdowns, making him the bargain of the three.

From week seven to 17, Loveland was the tight end six in points per game and was the analyst's titan one heading into the NFL draft despite conversation around Tyler Warren.

Loveland moves like a wide receiver and can get in and out of breaks with the wiggle seen in Travis Kelce, with demonstrated ability to win in man coverage against elite defenders.

Analyst projects Colston Loveland to be an All-Pro player, calling him "easily the best tight end in this draft class" and comparing him to Travis Kelce as a receiver.

Mason Taylor (TE, NYJ) is #263 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 215.8 with a 60.8-point projection. Verdict: Taylor impressed as a blocker but offers little fantasy ceiling on Jets. Taylor did not have a ton of opportunities to make noise as a receiver in a terrible Jets offense, and he was never going to be a splashy receiver based on his LSU tape. He's more of a Dalton Schultz to Jake Ferguson ol' reliable type in the pass game, and a lot of his receptions last year were hitches or flats. If there was a spot he shined most as a receiver, it was in contested situations, where PFF charted him catching 12-of-15.

Terrance Ferguson (TE, LAR) is #208 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 203.8 with a 66.4-point projection. Verdict: Ferguson can scoot, but the Rams have 5 TEs worthy of the active roster. The Ferguson role as a rookie was one of the most unique in NFL history. That's not an exageration. He was a part-time player, who did almost all of his damage in 3-TE sets, which is rarely used in the modern era.

Gunnar Helm (TE, TEN) is #187 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 178.2 with a 94.3-point projection. Verdict: Helm will play more but didn't flash enough to believe a ceiling is coming. Helm was inserted into the inline role next to Chig Okonkwo as a rookie with very mixed results. The 241-pounder lost some battles due to physical limitations and others based on not locking down his assignment. There's room for more weight to be added onto his frame, and the execution should get better over the next couple of years.

Oronde Gadsden (TE, LAC) is #170 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 144.1 with a 122.1-point projection. Verdict: Gadsden is a buy in dynasty, but his snaps are capped short term. Gadsden is too big to be an every-down WR, but he's too athletically gifted as a TE to not run deep routes. As a rookie, he was split out often and ran a ton of seam-based routes. 9 average depth of target was 6th-highest at the position, and he only had 1% of his targets coming in the screen game.

Harold Fannin (TE, CLE) is #81 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 98.4 with a 148.1-point projection. Verdict: Without Njoku, Fannin should beat his rookie-year TE10 finish. Here was the intro to my Fannin scouting report: "This profile feels too good to be true. ), including massive ones against Penn State (137), Texas A&M (145), and in the bowl game (213). Fannin is an excellent hands catcher at all levels with athleticism to create separation from all alignments.

Tyler Warren (TE, IND) is #66 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 65.8 with a 151.2-point projection. Verdict: Warren was the TE6 in Daniel Jones starts as a rookie. Warren was the 14th overall pick in the NFL Draft and my 20th overall prospect. His unique blend of size (6'6"/256) and underneath YAC skills made him a high-upside TE1. Those skills flashed as a rookie, even if he was over-hyped as a run blocker and downfield route runner.

Colston Loveland (TE, CHI) is #39 overall in Hayden Winks' 2026 Half-PPR rankings vs. Underdog ADP 45.9 with a 161.9-point projection. Verdict: Loveland moves like a future All Pro TE on film. Loveland moved like a WR on his Michigan tape, which is why I ranked him 8th overall and the Bears selected him 10th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft despite skipping the Combine due to injury. That injury slowed him as a rookie, but Loveland's film was too undeniable to not play more by the end of his rookie season when he was still 21 years old. His flexibility in his routes, while reaching top-end speeds with such ease is what makes him stand out on film, whether it's against a slot CB, SS, or LB.

Brandon Ayuk's situation is concerning due to his lack of training and potential regression, making him a risky pick.

Ryan Flournoy could be a potential breakout candidate in the Cowboys' offense, which can support multiple receivers.

Trey Harris is a sleeper candidate for a breakout in his second season, especially with a new offensive coordinator in place.

Emmanuel Wilson has a chance to take on early workload with Zach Charbonnet out, making him a player to watch.

Isaac Teslar has shown potential for a breakout season, especially with the Lions' favorable schedule.

Travis Hunter is worth a late-round dart throw, especially in best ball formats, due to his potential role as a starting slot receiver.